June 19, 2009

Confrontation looms

The Iranian activist blog Raye Man Kojast? reports that the authorities have denied Musavi permission to march tomorrow. Sounds like Iranians will have to defy the Islamic Republic again--as they have done for the last week.

P.S. Raye man kojast means Where is my vote?

Posted by Howard Baskerville at June 19, 2009 11:57 AM
Comments

That ( http://raymankojast.blogspot.com/ ) is a great link--thanks.

Posted by: John Rylander Author Profile Page at June 19, 2009 12:26 PM

Thanks so much for carrying the torch! I've never appreciated Informed observation more than now. One of the biggest problems with MSM coverage is the distorted lens of domestic politics through which so much commentary is filtered. It seems self-destructive, but specialists are the first to go as news organizations tighten their belts, and the generalists who are left lack sufficient depth to offer much real guidance.

Khamenei's speech struck me as superficially clever from a rhetorical perspective, but some of his major points seemed to throw the significance of current events into even higher relief.

The fact that the current convulsion is taking place within the Islamic establishment is precisely what makes it so potentially paradigm shifting, isn't it? Has he inadvertantly legitimized the opposition -- especially by touting their original connections to the original revolution? The reformists' intimate understanding of revolutionary governance would seem to be a big part of why Mousavi et al have been able to calibrate public protest so successfully.

Is my impression that Khamenei did not actually mention Mousavi by name correct? I can imagine any number of reasons he might want to avoid confronting Mousavi (and thus his following) directly, but I'm a real layman here. It sounds like Khamenei may actually be more worried about Rafsanjani at the moment -- lauding him in public while simultaneously moving to keep his family under regime control by grounding his children = carrots and sticks?

Khamenei's assertion that a million votes could be suspect, while 11 million cannot, ironically suggests a compelling reason for rigging the election as a massive landslide!

In terms of Khamenei's support, is the fact that there seemed to be no women at all in attendance as he spoke significant -- or is this just a matter of religious observance at a prayer meeting? Would women just be traditionally out of sight?

It wasn't clear to me, as translated, but at one point I thought that Khamenei actually referred to the Basji(sp?) as the victims of the current violence. As I understand it, the Revolutionary Guard are his ultimate source of power. If so, it sounds ominously like he was giving them cover for taking back the streets. In retrospect, his entire address seems designed to prepare the way -- and justify -- a potentially massive bloodletting to come. Am I correct in thinking he has sponsored just such a "solution" before? I would love to hear that I'm misinterpreting the tenor of his remarks.

Posted by: JM Hanes Author Profile Page at June 19, 2009 1:13 PM

On another blog, a commenter, on a post about "Freedom in Iran", observed...

I have to say right now that we should be very cautious about depicting the Iranians as liberal-thinking Westerners who want total freedom. This is a mistake that we make all the time.

Perhaps, but…

How many times have we partnered with, or dealt “pragmatically” with, some oppressive regime, using the justification that their people weren’t “READY” for freedom (as if they were sub-human or something). I really think this is an EXCUSE for preserving status quo.

Can it be possible, just possible, that after recent events, there could be some Iranians wondering, “If the Iraqis and Afghans can pull off genuine elections, WHY THE HELL CAN’T WE?!!!”

(Just saw, over at Gateway Pundit, an Iranian protester holding a sign that translated into, “DON’T FORGET WHAT HAPPENED TO SADDAM!!!.)
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Posted by: Paul_In_Houston Author Profile Page at June 19, 2009 1:46 PM

The link to Raye man kojast is down now.

If the link is correct, then I guess that it has been taken down.

On this:

I have to say right now that we should be very cautious about depicting the Iranians as liberal-thinking Westerners who want total freedom. This is a mistake that we make all the time.

That is a truism. Freedom means a lot of different things to different people.

When you have almost unlimited freedom like we do here in the USA, it means that.

In other countries just a few simple freedoms might be all they would expect or even want (at first).

Inflation is high in Iran, the modesty squads, unemployment, no way to care for your family and other daily troubles and problems breed distrust, disgust and makes for an unhappy population. Does that mean they want a revolution or just to change those few things?

I see no visible leaders to lead Iranians in a revolution. Unless there are some that are not in the public eye, and by that fact alone they may never be able to lead. I was hoping for some leader out of the Army or even the Guard that had the guts to step up and lead, but it appears most all of them have already been jailed.

It has been hard (looking at history) even with a strong leader to have a revolution. Without one, I fear they have no real chance of starting or ever completing one.

Just more death, injuries and prison time is all I can foresee this time around. But there will be other times. They should start planning for them now.

Papa Ray
West Texas

Posted by: Papa Ray Author Profile Page at June 19, 2009 6:21 PM

You've got a busted URL in the link; there's a trailing underscore.

At first, I wondered if A'jad and his goons had somehow broken Blogspot...

Posted by: Foobarista Author Profile Page at June 19, 2009 6:25 PM

Thanks, I got the link to work by deleting the underscore.

Listening to the second video on the page, I really didn't need to know the language.

It was clear to me from the anguish, pain and anger that came through to me...clear as a bell.

God help these people of Iran.

Papa Ray
West Texas

Posted by: Papa Ray Author Profile Page at June 19, 2009 6:53 PM

I have no doubt that what they want is not exactly what we have in the U.S. It seems though they do want a change and any change in an Islamic nation is a big step. Though how can they gain it?
The peaceful rallies must have the leaders quite bewildered, but that alone will not topple the leadership. How about work stoppage? Have the whole country grind to halt, especially in the oil fields. Could that do it?

Posted by: lions Author Profile Page at June 19, 2009 8:30 PM

I see no visible leaders to lead Iranians in a revolution.

Were there leaders to get this started, in the first place? Other than in the sense that some people acted, and others ran with it?

MUST there always be a man on a white horse to lead people? Is that REALLY the case, or is that idea mostly elitism (showing contempt for the idea of mere people actually thinking for themselves)?

Like a fire, this situation is taking on a life of its' own.
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Posted by: Paul_In_Houston Author Profile Page at June 19, 2009 8:31 PM

"MUST there always be a man on a white horse to lead people?"

Yes, I would say almost always. In this case, it was "the straw that broke the camel's back" when the Iranian Mullahs falsified the election results. But the "leaders" of the opposition did not run to create a revolution, but to gain power for their political group.

The thing about uprisings and revolutions is that if there are not strong leaders, someone will always co-op the situation and you can almost bet (history proves) it will be someone that is like Obama and does not have the welfare or freedom of the people in his heart or mind. His handler Emanuel said: "never let a good crisis go to waste"

There are people just like that in Iran just waiting to fill the void.

"or is that idea mostly elitism (showing contempt for the idea of mere people actually thinking for themselves)?'

Good logical thinking there, and totally off the wall.

Papa Ray
West Texas

Posted by: Papa Ray Author Profile Page at June 20, 2009 7:32 AM

The blogger known as Raye man kojast no longer exists.

Posted by: Carlos Author Profile Page at June 20, 2009 7:37 AM

Where's Howard?

Posted by: John Rylander Author Profile Page at June 20, 2009 9:39 AM

Good logical thinking there, and totally off the wall

"off the wall"? As in "amazing"? Or, as in "Are you ON something?" :-)

What gives me hope for this situation is that the horror stories turning up do NOT seem to end with the protesters running for their lives and giving up completely. The casualties appear to stem from them continuing their resistance.

The first time a policeman raised his riot stick and stalked towards a protester, expecting him to run as usual, but the protester just stood there and looked back at him, and it was the policeman that backed down and walked away, was probably the start of a fire that has taken on a life of its' own.

The biggest problem with being an oppressor depending on fear, is "GOD HELP YOU" if they ever STOP being afraid of you.

Yeah, the security forces are reacting, but it's damned hard to stuff the djinni back into the bottle; ain't it?

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Posted by: Paul_In_Houston Author Profile Page at June 20, 2009 8:37 PM

Maybe Howard the blog-sitter lost his housekey.

Posted by: AZZenny Author Profile Page at June 20, 2009 10:25 PM

http://greenrevolutioniran.blogspot.com/

has recent video, some of which is hard to watch. But I'm glad it's there for the world to see and think about.

Posted by: Paul S. Author Profile Page at June 20, 2009 10:38 PM
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