August 26, 2008
The Truth About Russia in Georgia
TBILISI, GEORGIA – Virtually everyone believes Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili foolishly provoked a Russian invasion on August 7, 2008, when he sent troops into the breakaway district of South Ossetia. “The warfare began Aug. 7 when Georgia launched a barrage targeting South Ossetia,” the Associated Press reported over the weekend in typical fashion.
Virtually everyone is wrong. Georgia didn't start it on August 7, nor on any other date. The South Ossetian militia started it on August 6 when its fighters fired on Georgian peacekeepers and Georgian villages with weapons banned by the agreement hammered out between the two sides in 1994. At the same time, the Russian military sent its invasion force bearing down on Georgia from the north side of the Caucasus Mountains on the Russian side of the border through the Roki tunnel and into Georgia. This happened before Saakashvili sent additional troops to South Ossetia and allegedly started the war.
Regional expert, German native, and former European Commission official Patrick Worms was recently hired by the Georgian government as a media advisor, and he explained to me exactly what happened when I met him in downtown Tbilisi. You should always be careful with the version of events told by someone on government payroll even when the government is as friendly and democratic as Georgia's. I was lucky, though, that another regional expert, author and academic Thomas Goltz, was present during Worms' briefing to me and signed off on it as completely accurate aside from one tiny quibble.
Goltz has been writing about the Caucasus region for almost 20 years, and he isn't on Georgian government payroll. He earns his living from the University of Montana and from the sales of his books Azerbaijan Diary
“You,” Worms said to Goltz just before he started to flesh out the real story to me, “are going to be bored because I'm going to give some back story that you know better than I do.”
“Go,” Goltz said. “Go.”
The back story began at least as early as the time of the Soviet Union. I turned on my digital voice recorder so I wouldn't miss anything that was said.
“A key tool that the Soviet Union used to keep its empire together,” Worms said to me, “was pitting ethnic groups against one another. They did this extremely skillfully in the sense that they never generated ethnic wars within their own territory. But when the Soviet Union collapsed it became an essential Russian policy to weaken the states on its periphery by activating the ethnic fuses they planted.
“They tried that in a number of countries. They tried it in the Baltic states, but the fuses were defused. Nothing much happened. They tried it in Ukraine. It has not happened yet, but it's getting hotter. They tried it in Moldova. There it worked, and now we have Transnitria. They tried it in Armenia and Azerbaijan and it went beyond their wildest dreams and we ended up with a massive, massive war. And they tried it in two territories in Georgia, which I'll talk about in a minute. They didn't try it in Central Asia because basically all the presidents of the newly independent countries were the former heads of the communist parties and they said we're still following your line, Kremlin, we haven't changed very much.”
He's right about the massive war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, though few outside the region know much about it. Armenians and Azeris very thoroughly transferred Azeris and Armenians “back” to their respective mother countries after the Soviet Union collapsed through pogroms, massacres, and ethnic-cleansing. Hundreds of thousands of refugees fled savage communal warfare in terror. The Armenian military still occupies the ethnic-Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh region in southwestern Azerbaijan. It's another so-called “frozen conflict” in the Caucasus region waiting to thaw. Moscow takes the Armenian side and could blow up Nagorno-Karabakh, and subsequently all of Azerbaijan, at any time. After hearing the strident Azeri point of view on the conflict for a week before I arrived in Georgia, I'd say that particular ethnic-nationalist fuse is about one millimeter in length.
“Now the story starts really in 1992 when this fuse was lit in Georgia,” Worms said. “Now, there's two territories. There's Abkhazia which has clearly defined administrative borders, and there's South Ossetia that doesn't. Before the troubles started, Abkhazia was an extremely ethnically mixed area: about 60 percent Georgian, 20 percent Abkhaz, and 20 percent assorted others – Greeks, Estonians, Armenians, Jews, what have you. In Ossetia it was a completely integrated and completely mixed Ossetian-Georgian population. The Ossetians and the Georgians have never been apart in the sense that they were living in their own little villages and doing their own little things. There has been inter-marriage and a sense of common understanding going back to distant history. The Georgians will tell you about King Tamar – that's a woman, but they called her a king – and she was married to an Ossetian. So the fuse was lit and two wars start, one in Abkhazia and one in South Ossetia.”
South Ossetia is inside Georgia, while North Ossetia is inside Russia.
“The fuse was not just lit in Moscow,” he said. “It was also lit in Tbilisi. There was a guy in charge here, Zviad Gamsakhurdia, a little bit like [Serbian Nationalist war criminal in Bosnia Radovan] Karadzic. He was a poet. He was an intellectual. But he was one of these guys who veered off into ethnic exclusivism. He made stupid declarations like Georgia is only for the Georgians. If you're running a multi-ethnic country, that is really not a clever thing to say. The central control of the state was extremely weak. The Russians were trying to make things worse. There was a civil war between Georgians and Tbilisi. But the key thing is that here there were militias, Georgian militias, and some of them pretty nasty.”
Thomas Goltz then interjected his only critique of Patrick Worms' explanation of events that led to this war. “It started in 1991,” he said, “but it went into 1992 and 1993, as well.” Then he turned to me. “This guy, [Zviad] Gamsakhurdia, was driven from power from across the street. They bombed this place.” He meant the Marriott Hotel. We stood in the lobby where Worms had set up his media relations operation. “There's a horrible picture in my Georgia book of this facade.”
“Of this building?” I said.
“Yeah,” Goltz said. “That was December 1991. He fled in December 1991.”
“Where did he go?” I said.
“To Chechnya,” Goltz said. “Of course. He led the government in exile until he came back in 1993 then died obscurely in the mountains, of suicide some people say, others say cancer. Then he was buried in Grozny.” He turned then again to Patrick Worms. “1991,” he said. “Not 1992.”
“1991,” Worms said. “Okay.”
So aside from that quibble, everything else Worms said to me was vouched for as accurate by the man who literally wrote the book on this conflict from the point of view of both academic and witness.
“So in 1991,” Worms said, “things here explode. And basically it gets pretty nasty. Thomas can tell you what happened. Read his book
“When it's over,” he said, “you've got two bits of Abkhazia which are not ethnic Abkhazia. You've got Gali district which is filled with ethnic Georgians. And you've got the Kodori Gorge which is filled with another bunch of Georgians. So there the end result was a classic case of ethnic-cleansing, but the world didn't pay much attention because it was happening at the same time as the Yugoslav wars. Ossetia was different. Ossetia also had a war that started about the same time, and it was also pretty nasty, but it never quite succeeded in generating a consolidated bit of territory that Ossetians could keep their own. When the dust settled there, you ended up with a patchwork of Georgian and Ossetian villages. Before the war, Ossetians and Georgians lived together in the same villages. After the war they lived in separate villages. But there were still contacts. People were talking, people were trading. It wasn't quite as nasty as it was in Abkhazia.
“Now fast forward to the Rose Revolution,” he said.
The Rose Revolution was a popular bloodless revolution that brought Georgia's current president Mikheil Saakashvili to power and replaced the old man of Georgian politics Eduard Shevardnadze who basically ran the country Soviet-style.
“The first thing that Misha [Mikheil Saakashvili] did was try to poke his finger in [Russian President Vladimir] Putin's eyes as many times as possible,” Worms said, “most notably by wanting to join NATO. The West, in my view, mishandled this situation. America gave the wrong signals. So did Europe.”
“Can you elaborate on that a bit?” I said.
“I will,” he said. “But basically the encouragement was given despite stronger and stronger Russian signals that a Georgian accession to NATO would not be tolerated. Fast forward to 2008, to this year, to the meeting of NATO heads of state that took place in Bucharest, Romania, where Georgia was promised eventual membership of the organization but was refused what it really wanted, which was the so-called Membership Action Plan. The Membership Action Plan is the bureaucratic tool NATO uses to prepare countries for membership. And this despite the fact that military experts will tell you that the Georgian Army, which had been reformed root and branch with American support, was now in better shape and more able to meet NATO aspirations than the armies of Albania and Macedonia which got offered membership at the same meeting.
“Just a little bit of back story again, in July of 2007 Russia withdrew from the Conventional Forces Treaty in Europe. This is a Soviet era treaty that dictates where NATO and the Warsaw Pact can keep their conventional armor around their territories. Russia started moving a lot of materiel south. After Bucharest, provocations started. Russian provocations started, and they were mostly in Abkhazia.
“One provocation was to use the Russian media to launch shrill accusations that the Georgian army was in Kodori preparing for an invasion of Abkhazia. Now if you go up there – I took a bunch of journalists up there a few times – when you get to the actual checkpoint you have a wall of crumbling rock, a wooden bridge, another wall of crumbling rock, a raging torrent, and a steep mountainside filled with woods. It's not possible to invade out or invade in unless you've got air support. Which is why the Abkhaz were never able to kick these Georgians out. They just kept that bit of territory.”
He paused and looked over at Thomas Goltz as though he was bracing for a critique.
“I'm just doing what I've done already,” he said, “but this time I'm getting advice from an expert on how I'm doing.”
Thomas Goltz silently nodded.
“Kodori provocations,” Worms continued, “and other provocations. First the Russians had a peacekeeping base under a 1994 agreement that allowed them to keep the peace in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. They added paratroopers, crack paratroopers, with modern weaponry there. That doesn't sound a lot like peacekeeping. A further provocation: they start shooting unmanned Georgian aircraft drones out the sky. One of them was caught on camera by the drone as it was about to be destroyed. The United Nations confirmed that it was a Russian plane that did this. It probably took off from an airbase that the Russians were supposed to have vacated a few years ago, but they never let the OSCE [Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe] in to check.
“The next provocation: On April 16 Putin signs a presidential decree recognizing the documents of Abkhazians and South Ossetians in Russia and vice versa. This effectively integrates these two territories into Russia's legal space. The Georgians were furious. So you have all these provocations mounting and mounting and mounting. Meanwhile, as of July, various air corps start moving from the rest of Russia to get closer to the Caucasus. These are obscure details, but they are available.
“Starting in mid July the Russians launched the biggest military exercise in the North Caucasus that they've held since the Chechnya war. That exercise never stopped. It just turned into a war. They had all their elite troops there, all their armor there, all their stuff there. Everyone still foolishly thought the action was going to be in Abkhazia or in Chechnya, which is still not as peaceful as they'd like it to be.
“The Georgians had their crack troops in Iraq. So what was left at their central base in Gori? Not very much. Just Soviet era equipment and not their best troops. They didn't place troops on the border with Abkhazia because they didn't want to provoke the Abkhaz. They were expecting an attempt on Kodori, but the gorge is in such a way that unless they're going to use massive air support – which the Abkhaz don't have – it's impossible to take that place. Otherwise they would have done it already.
“So fast forward to early August. You have a town, Tskhinvali, which is Ossetian, and a bunch of Georgian villages surrounding it in a crescent shape. There are peacekeepers there. Both Russian peacekeepers and Georgian peacekeepers under a 1994 accord. The Ossetians were dug in in the town, and the Georgians were in the forests and the fields between the town and the villages. The Ossetians start provoking and provoking and provoking by shelling Georgian positions and Georgian villages around there. And it's a classic tit for tat thing. You shell, I shell back. The Georgians offered repeated ceasefires, which the Ossetians broke.
“On August 3, the head of the local administration says he's evacuating his civilians. You also need to know one thing: you may be wondering what these areas live off, especially in Ossetia, there's no industry there. Georgia is poor, but Ossetia is poorer. It's basically a smuggler's paradise. There was a sting operation that netted three kilograms of highly enriched uranium. There are fake hundred dollar bills to the tune of at least 50 million dollars that have been printed. [South Ossetian “President” Eduard] Kokoity himself is a former wrestler and a former bodyguard who was promoted to the presidency by powerful Ossetian families as their puppet. What does that mean in practice? It means that if you are a young man, you have no choice. You can either live in absolute misery, or you can take the government's dime and join the militia. It happened in both territories.
“On top of that, for the last four years the Russians have been dishing out passports to anyone who asks in those areas. All you have to do is present your Ossetian or Abkhaz papers and a photo and you get a Russian passport on the spot. If you live in Moscow and try to get a Russian passport, you have the normal procedure to follow, and it takes years. So suddenly you have a lot of Ossetian militiamen and Abkhaz militiamen with Russian passports in effect paid by Russian subsidies.
“So back to the 3rd of August. Kokoity announces women and children should leave. As it later turned out, he made all the civilians leave who were not fighting or did not have fighting capabilities. On the same day, irregulars – Ingush, Chechen, Ossetians, and Cossacks – start coming in and spreading out into the countryside but don't do anything. They just sit and wait. On the 6th of August the shelling intensifies from Ossetian positions. And for the first time since the war finished in 1992, they are using 120mm guns.”
“Can I stop you for a second?” I said. I was still under the impression that the war began on August 7 and that Georgian President Saakashvili started it when he sent troops into South Ossetia's capital Tskhinvali. What was all this about the Ossetian violence on August 6 and before?
He raised his hand as if to say stop.
“That was the formal start of the war,” he said. “Because of the peace agreement they had, nobody was allowed to have guns bigger than 80mm. Okay, so that's the formal start of the war. It wasn't the attack on Tskhinvali. Now stop me.”
“Okay,” I said. “All the reports I've read say Saakashvili started the war.”
“I'm not yet on the 7th,” he said. “I'm on the 6th.”
“Okay,” I said. He had given this explanation to reporters before, and he knew exactly what I was thinking.
“Saakashvili is accused of starting this war on the 7th,” he said.
“Right,” I said. “But that sounds like complete bs to me if what you say is true.”
Thomas Goltz nodded.
I later met wounded Georgian soldiers in a Tbilisi hospital who confirmed what Patrick Worms had told me about what happened when the war actually started. I felt apprehensive about meeting wounded soldiers. Would they really want to talk to someone in the media or would they rather spend their time healing in peace?
My translator spoke to some of the doctors in the hospital who directed us to Georgian soldiers and a civilian who were wounded in South Ossetia and felt okay enough to speak to a foreign reporter.
“Every day and every hour the Russian side lied,” Georgian soldier Kaha Bragadze said. “It must be stopped. If not today, then maybe tomorrow. My troops were in our village, Avnevi. On the 6th of August they blew up our troops' four-wheel-drives, our pickups. They blew them up. Also in this village – it was August 5th or 6th, I can't remember – they started bombing us with shells. Two soldiers died that day, our peacekeepers. The Ossetians had a good position on the hill. They could see all our positions and our villages, and they started bombing. They went to the top of the hill, bombed us, then went down. We couldn't see who was shooting at us.”
“Which day was this?” I said. “The 5th or the 6th?”
“I don't remember,” he said. “But it started that day from that place when two Georgians were killed.”
“Were they just bombing you the peacekeepers,” I said, “or also civilians and villages?”
“Before they started bombing us they took all the civilians out of their villages,” he said. “Then they started damaging our villages – houses, a gas pipe, roads, yards. They killed our animals. They evacuated their villages, then bombed our villages.”
Another Georgian soldier, Giorgi Khosiashvili, concurred
“I was a peace keeper as well,” he said, “but in another village. I was fired upon on August 6th. On the 5th of August they started shooting. They blew up our peacekeeping trucks. They put a bomb on the road and when they were driving they were blown up. They also mined the roads used by civilians. On the 6th of August they started bombing Avnevi. And at this time they took the civilians out of Tskhinvali and sent them to North Ossetia [inside Russia].”
“I saw this on TV,” said Alex, my translator. “They took the civilians, kids, women, and put them on the bus and sent them to North Ossetia.”
A civilian man, Koba Mindiashvili, shared the hospital room with the Georgian soldiers. He, too, was in South Ossetia where he lived outside Tskhinvali.
“When they started bombing my village,” he said, “I was running away and the soldiers wounded me. They robbed me and shot me in the leg with a Kalashnikov. I don't know if it was Russians or Ossetians. They took my car, took my gold chain, and shot me.”
“They didn't care if it was a house or a military camp,” Giorgi Khosiashvili said. “They bombed everything.”
“You actually saw this for yourself?” I said.
“Yes,” he said. “I saw it. It was the Russian military airplanes. If they knew it was a Georgian village, they bombed all the houses. Many civilians were killed from this bombing.”
“It was Russians or Ossetians who did this?” I said.
“It was Russians,” he said. “The Ossetians don't have any jets.”
Back at the Marriott Hotel in downtown Tbilisi, Patrick Worms continued fleshing out the rest of the story. “Let me tell you what happened on the 7th,” he said. “On the 6th, while this is going on, the integration minister who was until a few months ago an NGO guy and who believes in soft power things, tried to go there and meet the separatist leadership. The meeting doesn't happen for farcical reasons. The shelling intensifies during the night and there is, again, tit for tat, but this time with weapons coming from the South Ossetian side which are not allowed under the agreement. By that time, the Georgians were seriously worried. All their armor that was near Abkhazia starts moving, but they are tanks, they don't have tank transporters, so they move slowly. They don't make it back in time. On the 7th, this continues. That afternoon, the president announces a unilateral ceasefire, a different one from the previous ones. It means I stop firing first, and if you fire, I still won't fire back. That holds until the next part of the story.
“On the evening of the 7th, the Ossetians launch an all-out barrage focused on Georgian villages, not on Georgian positions. Remember, these Georgian villages inside South Ossetia – the Georgians have mostly evacuated those villages, and three of them are completely pulverized. That evening, the 7th, the president gets information that a large Russian column is on the move. Later that evening, somebody sees those vehicles emerging from the Roki tunnel [into Georgia from Russia]. Then a little bit later, somebody else sees them. That's three confirmations. It was time to act.
“What they had in the area was peacekeeping stuff, not stuff for fighting a war. They had to stop that column, and they had to stop it for two reasons. It's a pretty steep valley. If they could stop the Russians there, they would be stuck in the tunnel and they couldn't send the rest of their army through. So they did two things. The first thing they did, and it happened at roughly the same time, they tried to get through [South Ossetian capital] Tskhinvali, and that's when everybody says Saakashvili started the war. It wasn't about taking Ossetia back, it was about fighting their way through that town to get onto that road to slow the Russian advance. The second thing they did, they dropped a team of paratroopers to destroy a bridge. They got wiped out, but first they managed to destroy the bridge and about 15 Russian vehicles.
“The Georgians will tell you that they estimate that these two actions together slowed the Russian advance by 24 to 48 hours. That is what the world considered to be Misha's game. And you know why the world considers it that? Because here in South Ossetia was the head of the peacekeeping troops. He hasn't been in Iraq, he's a peace keeper. What have they been told for the last four years? They lived in a failed state, then there was the Rose Revolution – it wasn't perfect but, damn, now there's electricity, there's jobs, roads have been fixed – and what the Georgians have had drummed into them is that Georgia is now a constitutional state, a state of law and order. And everybody here knows that Ossetia is a gangster's smuggler's paradise. The whole world knows it, but here they know it particularly well. The peacekeepers had a military objective, and the first rule of warfare when you're talking to the media is not to reveal to your enemy what you're going to do. So they weren't going to blather into a microphone and say well, actually, I'm trying to go through Tskhinvali in order to stop the Russians. So what did he say instead? I'm here to restore constitutional order in South Ossetia. And that's it. With that, Georgia lost the propaganda war and the world believes Saakashvili started it. And the rest of the story...you know.”
“Let me make a couple of comments,” Goltz said.
“That,” Worms said, “to the best of my knowledge, is all true.”
“Let's just start at the ass end,” Goltz said to me. “This is your first time to the lands of the former Soviet Union?”
“Yes,” I said.
“The restoration of constitutional order,” he said, “may sound just like a rhetorical flourish with no echo in the American mindset. What it means in the post-Soviet mindset is what Boris Yeltsin was doing in Chechnya. This was the stupidest phrase this guy possibly could have used. That's why people want to lynch him.”
Goltz was referring to the head of the Georgian peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia. He turned then to Patrick Worms. “Your presentation was deliciously comprehensive. Perhaps it was...we'll ask our new friend Michael...too much information out of the gate to absorb.”
“I absorbed it,” I said.
“Okay,” Goltz said.
“Am I making any mistakes?” Worms said to Goltz. “Am I forgetting anything?”
“Well,” Goltz said, “there are some details that I would chip in. Who are the Ossetians and where do they live? This is the question that has been lost in all of the static from this story. This autonomy [South Ossetia] is an autonomous district, as opposed to an autonomous republic, with about 60,000 people max. So, where are the rest of the Ossetians? Guess where they live? Tbilisi. Here. There. Everywhere. There are more Ossetians – take a look around this lobby. You will find Ossetians here. Of those Ossetians who are theoretically citizens of the Republic of Georgia, 60,000 live there and around 40,000 live here.”
“What do they think about all this?” I said.
“They're scared as shit,” Goltz said.
“Are they on the side of those who live in South Ossetia?” I said.
“No,” he said. “One of them is Georgia's Minister of Defense. [Correction: Georgia's Minister of Defense is Jewish, not Ossetian.] Georgia is a multi-ethnic republic. And the whole point of the Ossetian ethnic question is this: South Ossetia is part of Georgia.”
“Are reporters receptive to what you're saying?” I said to Worms.
“Everyone is receptive,” he said. “Everyone, regardless of nationality, even those who love Georgia, genuinely thought Saakashvili started it.”
“That's what I thought,” I said. “That's what everyone has been writing.”
“Yes,” he said. “Absolutely. We've been trying to tell the world about this for months. If you go back and look at the archives you'll see plenty of calls from the Georgian government saying they're really worried. Even some Russian commentators agree that this is exactly what happened. Don't forget, they sent in a lot of irregulars, Chechens, Cossacks, Ossetians, Ingush – basically thugs. Not normal Chechens or Ingush – thugs. Thugs out for a holiday. Many Western camera crews were robbed at gunpoint ten meters from Russian tanks while Russian commanders just stood there smoking their cigarettes while the irregulars...that happened to a Turkish TV crew. They're lucky to still be alive. Some of the Georgians were picked up by the irregulars. If they happened to be female, they got raped. If they happened to be male, they got shot immediately, sometimes tortured. Injured people we have in hospitals who managed to get out have had arms chopped off, eyes gouged out, and their tongues ripped out.”
Russian rules of engagement, so to speak, go down harder than communism. And the Soviet era habits of disinformation are alive and well.
“You also have to remember the propaganda campaign that came out,” he said. “Human Rights Watch is accusing the Russian authorities of being indirectly responsible for the massive ethnic cleansing of Georgians that happened in South Ossetia. The Ossetians are claiming that the Georgians killed 2,000 people in Tskhinvali, but when Human Rights Watch got in there a few days ago and talked to the hospital director, he had received 44 bodies. There was nobody left in that town. Plus it's the oldest law of warfare: have your guns in populated areas, and when the enemy responds, show the world your dead women and children.
“Right,” I said. “That goes on a lot where I usually work, in the Middle East.”
“Yes,” he said. “That's exactly what the Russians were doing.”
Post-script: If these dispatches are worth something to you, please consider a contribution and help make truly independent writing economically viable.
You can make a one-time donation through Pay Pal:
Alternately, you can now make recurring monthly payments through Pay Pal. Please consider choosing this option and help me stabilize my expense account.
If you would like to donate for travel and equipment expenses and you don't want to send money over the Internet, please consider sending a check or money order to:
Michael Totten
P.O. Box 312
Portland, OR 97207-0312
Many thanks in advance.
Posted by Michael J. Totten at August 26, 2008 6:34 AMHoly crap...
I've always thought most criticisms of mainstream media to be overwrought, but this... How is it possible that this is the first I've read about any of this?
Posted by: Independent George
at August 26, 2008 7:57 AM
Michael. I have tried to post 3 times, each time the comments just disappear, after a message "waiting for approval or something.." what is the problem?
Posted by: sweden1975 at August 26, 2008 8:17 AM
There is no doubt that the Russians have played this situation but the Georgians have been stupid and brutal. Here is an eyewitness report from inside South Ossetia during the Georgian bombardment:
http://www.iwpr.net/?p=crs&s=f&o=346117&apc_state=henpcrs
Posted by: Eliot at August 26, 2008 8:20 AM
With that, Georgia lost the propaganda war and the world believes Saakashvili started it.
The entire carefully-planned propaganda operation might have collapsed if the head of the Georgian peacekeeping forces in South Ossetia had instead publicly appealed to Russia to have its "rogue" elements recalled back to Russian territory, or else they would be subject to attack by Georgian forces. Instead, the "restore constitutional order" line fit the Russian scheme hand-in-glove.
One must then consider the possibility that whoever thought this was the right approach may not be a Georgian fool but a Russian tool.
“A key tool that the Soviet Union used to keep its empire together,” Worms said to me, “was pitting ethnic groups against one another. They did this extremely skillfully in the sense that they never generated ethnic wars within their own territory.
Actually, those things did happen, even after WWII. In one case when the Chechens got particularly violent the revolt was suppressed by a massive Soviet show of force coupled to the threat of ethnic cleansing: Pipe down, or we'll send you all up north to where the polar bears live. The Chechens had been deported en masse during WWII and not allowed to return until Khruschev was in power, so that wasn't an empty threat.
Posted by: Solomon2 at August 26, 2008 8:33 AM
Michael Totten: Yours is a contribution of real value that sadly won't be seen by enough of the "right people". Hopefully, this will be a short-lived and incorrect assessment. I'd dare the Washington Post or NY Times to print this. However, and a large however, is that these complex, centuries-long-enduring ethnic and religious conflicts smothering the whole landmass of Asia are beyond solving by the United States. We should also forget significant assistance from "allies". At age 77, and having lived in SE Asia, I think each passing year confirms Eisenhower's astute comment that we (USA) should never get into a land war in Asia.
Respectfully submitted.
at August 26, 2008 8:35 AM
Michael Totten: Yours is a contribution of real value that sadly won't be seen by enough of the "right people". Hopefully, this will be a short-lived and incorrect assessment. I'd dare the Washington Post or NY Times to print this. However, and a large however, is that these complex, centuries-long-enduring ethnic and religious conflicts smothering the whole landmass of Asia are beyond solving by the United States. We should also forget significant assistance from "allies". At age 77, and having lived in SE Asia, I think each passing year confirms Eisenhower's astute comment that we (USA) should never get into a land war in Asia.
Respectfully submitted.
at August 26, 2008 8:45 AM
the Georgians have been stupid and brutal. Here is an eyewitness -
A Google search reveals that the purported eyewitness, Larisa Sotieva, is a humanitarian worker and self-described "Ossetian" who has previously issued reports neutral or pro-separatist (that is to say, sympathetic to the Kremlin) about Chechen matters.
I won't say that her reports are false. However, they clearly aren't neutral: "it is naïve not to be aware that all truth is relative, especially in a situation between peace and war. "
Posted by: Solomon2 at August 26, 2008 10:11 AM
Michael,
If I may offer a correction.
One of your maps shows two Abkhazias while one of them is Adjaria (another hot bed, currently pacified), which is around Batumi.
Thank you
Posted by: leo at August 26, 2008 10:16 AM
You know you risking your life -- becoming a true hero. The KGB might decide not to like you, a lot.
Please, please be careful.
WHAT an important story! The mis-reporting of all others is terrible. M. Yon told Glenn to link (yet again!).
Of course I totally believe you.
The US should be flooding Georgia with hand-held anti-tank weapons. The Russians want to take over S. Ossetia. NATO/ the US must respond.
The Russian Press is no longer free, they will NOT hear of this well.
Posted by: Tom Grey - Liberty Dad at August 26, 2008 10:25 AM
Here is useful background reading. Georgia's South Ossetia Conflict: Make Haste Slowly. It is a PDF of the ICG's Europe Report No 183, dated 7 June 2007.
Detailed maps of Ossetia are hard to find. Pages 31-33 (PDF) of the report give many place-names, and areas of Georgian and Ossitian control (villages) as of 2007.
The locations of the Roki Tunnel, the bridge at Didi Gupta, and the city of Tskinvali can be seen on the page 31 map (Didi Gupta is just north of the 15 km circle drawn around Tskinvali).
Posted by: AMac at August 26, 2008 10:40 AM
My guess is that the "Restoring the Constitutional Order" line does not cause much aversion among most Americans, who do not understand any allusions included therein. It was the repeated-on-all-newscasts short movies of nighttime multiple-rocket-launch-systems, with use attributed to the Georgian Army as it attacked Tshkinvali, which convinced newsviewers that the Georgians are the aggressors. Visuals matter more than text.
Posted by: del at August 26, 2008 10:42 AM
Solomon2,
There was no need to do a Google search as the article itself describes Larisa Sotieva as a humanitarian worker and an Ossetian.
We can assume that no one is neutral which is why its important to hear from all sides including Ossetians.
Posted by: Eliot at August 26, 2008 10:42 AM
I have to echo the first poster. Holy crap.
I thought the site had crashed due to an Instalanche, but now he's saying there's been a cyber attack?
Please be careful out there.
Posted by: ron at August 26, 2008 10:55 AM
Why are the posters in English? (Or are the ones pictured the English versions of the local posters?)
Posted by: Mike Z at August 26, 2008 11:08 AM
Thomas Goltz's remarks on the irregulars don't tell the half of it.
The Russians went medievel on the Georgians, unleashing South Ossetian "militia", Cossack "volunteers" and former Chechen jihadis of the GRU Vostok Battalion to rape, kill, pillage and burn (eat babies).
Irregulars, Militias, Paramilitaries and Russian Schrecklichkeit Truppen
Notice the poster with the Georgian's arms cut off? Notice the Georgian is dressed like a Cossack? He is not. Cossacks are dressed like Georgians, and Circassians.
Posted by: Cannoneer No4 at August 26, 2008 11:17 AM
at August 26, 2008 11:48 AM
Mike,
Several livejournal readers complained they could not access your blog, not even under anon proxy. Did your admin close access to an IP range, or is the problem on the other side?
Thanks! And thank you for the insightful, as usual, writing.
Simon
Posted by: Simon Hawkin at August 26, 2008 11:49 AM
All of this information was already available to those with the inking to search. A simple Google search reveals stories from last year and beyond about Russian military movements around Georgia.
Even without that, it was clear from the efficency and specificity of the Russian attack that it had been planned to the letter, and was not an ad hoc reaction to "sudden" Georgian aggression.
A clear 3 step process on the part of Russia:
1. Move troops into place.
2. Have Ossetian puppets provoke a response.
3. Invade.
at August 26, 2008 11:55 AM
Pony Up People! This stuff ain't free!
Amazingly informative article Michael. What a gift to have such experts on hand. This is also a textbook example of how the MSM can get it so horribly wrong even when they don't have much of a dog in the fight.
I have been reading more of your stuff in the last year. This latest article was a tipping point for me to subscribe.
Folks! If you can afford it sign up for the paypal subscription. We all have doubts about the MSM. Put our money where our collectives mouths are and support someone who at least tries to tell the truth.
Be safe Michael!
Best Regards,
Joe
Posted by: Joe Libson at August 26, 2008 12:21 PM
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 08/26/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day...so check back often.
Posted by: David M at August 26, 2008 12:32 PM
Hey Michael, you might wanna check out criticisms by Josh Foust of Registan:
'Totten is being fed disinformation. And he doesn’t know enough to say so, since by his own admission he went into the country—just like his colleague Brietbart in Baku—knowing absolutely nothing about the place beforehand. He does not understand enough about the hatred in the area that exists on both sides to parse through the endless dissembling (Goltz is an amazing writer, but he is also unabashedly anti-Russian). Nor does he seem to understand the right before president Saakashvili invaded the territory, he called for a unilateral cease-fire in an attempt to roll through Tskhinvali unopposed (Russian-sponsored teenagers reportedly hurled molotov cocktails at Georgian tanks).'
Posted by: NickW at August 26, 2008 12:50 PM
Josh Foust: since by his own admission he went into the country—just like his colleague Brietbart in Baku—knowing absolutely nothing about the place beforehand.
What is this bullshit? I never said anything of the sort. Why should I take this Foust character seriously if he's going to insult me by pretending I insulted myself?
Unlike Andrew Breitbart, I write about foreign policy and geopolitics for a living, and I do it from inside the places I write about. I do not mean to insult Breitbart. He and I just have different jobs. Foust, on the other hand, is ridiculously and obnoxiously misquoting me. Heck, he isn't even misquoting me. He's just making shit up. To hell with him, whoever he is.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 26, 2008 1:07 PM
Well what I read here (I read everything). I and most georgians already knew The main is that russians can't believe this because russian press is 100% depended on russian government so russian people don't know the truth and they think that we did everything they even thought that we did ethnic cleansing there and Russian military is there to defend ossetians (but defend from who? georgia? OSSETIANS ARE GEORGIANS!!!) that's what people thinks in russia and they all blame us in insulting ossetians and abkhazians so everything is obvious here ....
Posted by: Geo_Tornike at August 26, 2008 1:35 PM
Reading the Wall St. Journal on the conflict, I got the impression of the chain of events that your article related.
Which brings up a question as to how conflicts like this are reported since there are likely no news bureaus in Georgia staffed by the US Press. Do they hire stringers? Fly in reporters? How do you start to report conflicts like this.
By reading your article, I get an inkling as to how you go about it.
I've read that smuggling was the main source of income for the two breakaway regions, but that must have been supported by other Georgians--crime has no borders?
But regardless of who started the fight, Russia is in possession and will likely annex the areas. I wonder how long the local rebel rulers will stay in control before the Russians start running the place directly.
Posted by: nvreader at August 26, 2008 2:01 PM
Two other comments:
1. Moscow/local Russian commanders could not keep their stories straight. You would hear the Moscow say that such and such would happen, but then the comment would be contradicted by what the local commanders would say. Surprising in this age of instant communication that there was evidently not good coordination in the press between the two groups.
2. The border must have been very loose as I could read stories from the local AP reporter or other news reporters from inside S. Ossetia that would contradict the Moscow press or local Russian commander press release. Also interviews were made with local residents, etc. Finally, the Wall St. Journal reported that the UN refugee SUV was stolen right in front of them and the local Russian troops by Ossetian irregulars in broad daylight.
I must admit that the reading the reporting in the US of both sides of the issue was quite unusual, together with the disconnect between Moscow and the local Russian authorities. Usually reporters get access to just one side, and the press releases and actions are consistent. I just wondered who was in charge of the invasion in Moscow--President Medvedev or someone in the hierarchy of the Russian army.
Posted by: nvreader at August 26, 2008 2:48 PM
For: Michael Totten:
Off and on today I've been reading all these various comments which make me want to chime in again and say that you must be doing this the right way to provoke such responses. I'm not a blog reader, so all this is revealing. If you ever get syndicated, insist on salaried independence, if such a thing exists. Good wishes from a new fan. ( I also noticed "time's up" pop-ups on my screen waiting to bring this site in view.)
Posted by: Morningside at August 26, 2008 3:51 PM
thanks for the great report Michael. We have read the AP, Reuters, the Georgian and Russian stories now we heard the unbiased one.
It amazes me how many people attack you simply because what you report (from ground zero) is not what they have been preaching from 10,000 miles way. No wonder they see their "expert" status hanging by a thread. Instead of bashing Michael, go and see for yourself. It isn't his fault. Get off your chair and do some original reporting.
(I think Breitbart said that he didn't know much about Azerbaijian and your critic included you in that and added Georgia to the list. Quite a leap ;)
Posted by: nameless-fool at August 26, 2008 4:19 PM
Wonderful reporting. Highly informative, cogently laid out, responsibly and transparently rendered, well written. The references to Goltz's works are appreciated as well. A superb piece throughout.
To date, your and Richard Fernandez's probings have been the most soundly and responsibly rendered sources, there's not even a close second that I've come across.
Posted by: Michael_B at August 26, 2008 4:45 PM
I echo the comment of Mike Z: the wall posters shown in this article are all in English, even the anti-Putin obscenity is in English. Those messages are not directed to the locals in Tbilisi, they're directed partly at Europe but mostly at the US. Are they the work of Patrick Worms?
It would be good if the reporting herein had asked the locals a few questions about those posters, who put them up, when did they go up? Are there any wall posters in Georgian, or Russian or any other local language? How else is the propaganda war being carried out by the local population?
With all due respect to Michael Totten, whose reporting I tend to trust, some additional observations on the various messages being sent from Tbilisi to the 'rest of the world' would be valuable. Likewise, on some of the messages for domestic consumption.
Posted by: Insufficiently Sensitive at August 26, 2008 5:15 PM
BBC World interviewed a Georgian doctor who lived in the outskirts of South Ossetia. The doctor said there was regular back and forth shelling from each side for three weeks, which was dramatically escalated by the Russian and South Ossetian militia the day before the war began. The doctor described a heavy increase in casualties before the war even started. It should be available in BBC's video archives.
This was not a Russian "response". This was a Russian invasion.
Posted by: pj48 at August 26, 2008 7:24 PM
I don't think every criticism Foust made is valid, Mike, but I think his basic point his sound. He's an SME on this topic and you're not, and your reporting demonstrates it. You've swallowed some dubious hooks.
James Joyner isn't incivil enough to give you an excuse to blow him off:
Any search for blame in this matter that starts in the summer of 2008 — or, indeed, this century — is bound to fail. There’s been plenty of action and reaction going on for generations to pin the responsibility on any one person or event.
Even I know that the Georgians and the Ossetians have been shelling each other, literally, for months prior to this crisis. You've based your entire article on a highly subjective and arbitrary claim that Ossetia "really" started the war because they switched from 80 to 120mm guns the day before Sasklavishli invaded. It's a poor piece of journalism.
It wasn't about taking Ossetia back, it was about fighting their way through that town to get onto that road to slow the Russian advance.
Oh, give me a break. The Russians sent an armored column into Ossetia - so what? They have freakin' military bases in Ossetia. They de facto annexed the place years ago, and the citizens are by all non-Georgian reports in favor of it. How many armored columns have they sent into Ossetia in the past 12 months? Why is this armored column so special?
In the noticeable absence of any evidence that Russia had August 8 marked off for "invade Georgia", the answer remains: Because Shevardnadze has decided to use it as a pretext for invading South Ossetia.
I mean, we're all in agreement on the timeline here being:
a) Georgia and Ossetia shell each other over a period of years,
b)one day, August 7 in fact, Shevardnadze moves a ton of troops into Ossetia proper in a highly unusual fashion.. right through the capital city in Ossetia..(we call that an 'invasion', and the fact that they had the common sense to go right for the russians doesn't change that - does the invasion of kuwait "not really count" if you head right for the US bases?)
c) the Russians proceed to put a whole lot more crap into Ossetia and evict the Georgians, also taking large chunks of Georgia in the process.
I mean, your article does an awful lot of d*cking around with the idea that all these ethnic conflicts are all evil Russian machinations. It sounds a lot like people who claim the Sunni/Shiite split is an American plot.
Shevardnadze - and I say this knowing full well that he may indeed be the better guy in the conflict by a nose, is a Georgian nationalist, a would-be Milosevic with a better human rights record. He wants to forcibly assimilate his separatist regions by use of overwhelming firepower. And so does everyone else in Georgia.
I mean, you came into this trip knowing you were going to be getting exactly one side of the story, and as much dog and pony as possible. If you were in any way concerned about that fact, you'd have been talking to Foust before you even got off the ground.
Posted by: glasnost at August 26, 2008 7:44 PM
Saakashvili.
Posted by: leo at August 26, 2008 7:54 PM
Even without that, it was clear from the efficency and specificity of the Russian attack that it had been planned to the letter, and was not an ad hoc reaction to "sudden" Georgian aggression.
This is not an either/or situation. It was planned to the letter, and it was a response to sudden Georgian aggression. Putin didn't have to be the reincarnation of Nostradamus to know that the Georgians were planning to take back Ossetia by force.
Lost in all the honking Scary Russia bleating is that in Georgia & Abkhazia you have two self-consciously distinct communal groups that hate each other, and one of them (Georgia) tried to conquer the other one (Ossetia). Georgian government, president, and populace has been all for forcibly reacquiring that land since Shevardnadze was elected - there have been a number of articles pointing out that that's the most popular piece of the guy's platform. To pass August 7 off as an altrusitic, territorially neutral pre-emptive strike is no more believeable coming from the Georgians than it would be from the Russians. If the Russians hadn't gone in, South Ossetia's land would be annexed to Georgia, and its population would all be in Russia - pretty much like how it ended up, except the Ossetians get to keep their houses and many Georgians don't.
The heroes and villians here escape me entirely, sorry. Just bullies and victims swapping roles by the day.
Posted by: glasnost at August 26, 2008 8:08 PM
This piece reflects a single report, not a thesis, not a history - a report. It is what it is - and, importantly, pretends to be no more than that. Methinks some members of the commetariat doth protest too much.
It's a superb piece of reporting precisely for that reason, among other reasons still.
Posted by: Michael_B at August 26, 2008 8:14 PM
Glastnost: or any other Georgian expert for that matter (and we're talking Saakashvili here; Shevardnadze has condemned Saakashvili's actions). Criticizing Saakashvili's recklessness in advancing into South Ossetia does not preclude one from criticizing Russian behavior once they broke into Georgia proper. I, and many others who actually do know the region, have done both. Neither side is innocent—both were actually pretty appalling in what they did to each other (for example, satellite imagery suggests the buildings Georgia destroyed in South Ossetia were primarily residential), and to portray Georgia as Russia's victim, which Michael does here, is reckless.
And Michael, I accused you of not doing your homework. You flew to Tblisi on a whim after your junket to Baku—that's not a crime, but don't cop an attitude about it. I didn't call you names. Don't make this personal when it doesn't have to be.
Posted by: Joshua Foust at August 26, 2008 8:18 PM
I have read some of Josh Foust's analysis on Registan, and I don't think he always knows what he is talking about, especially military matters. He's very vocal against the use of airpower in Afghanistan...I seem to recall him saying how it was silly to use them against mud huts. (note that dried mud walls make a pretty good bunker.) If you are taking fire from a mud brick building, I would guess that an air-strike is much more attractive than storming the building, throwing grenades and shooting into it.
Also, he sure seems eager to bash Michael, who is actually in Georgia, and who specifies very clearly who he interviewed for his piece and where they came from.
How did Michael "fall for it" by reporting what the Georgians say happened, confirmed by soldiers, and also by an independent regional expert.
Posted by: Harun at August 26, 2008 8:19 PM
"If the Russians hadn't gone in, South Ossetia's land would be annexed to Georgia"
I though SO and Abkhazia are Georgian territories.
At least for now. To the best of my knowledge only Russia recognized their independence and only few hours ago (I suspect Cuba and the likes are soon to follow).
If anyone is trying to annex anything here it would be Russia.
at August 26, 2008 8:33 PM
Please excuse my wild dyslexia.
Posted by: glasnost at August 26, 2008 8:34 PM
This is unfortunately when everything started," said Kezerashvili, the Georgian defense minister. "At 12 at night."
Georgian forces fired artillery rounds into Tskhinvali, which sits in a hollow. They attacked villages on surrounding higher ground. By 1 a.m., they were shelling the road along which a Russian column of more than 100 vehicles, including tanks and other armored vehicles, was moving south from the Roki Tunnel.
The column stopped for 90 minutes, Kezerashvili said.
By 2 a.m. on Friday, Aug. 8, Kezerashvili said, Georgian ground troops had advanced to the edge of Tskhinvali, and Georgian units had unleashed the BM-21 multiple rocket system, which can launch 40 rockets in 20 seconds.
Kezerashvili said the system was used to target separatist government buildings in the center of Tskhinvali, including the Defense Ministry and the Interior Ministry, where police forces have their headquarters. "It's not like a very open and big city, and I can tell you that we only targeted the places, the governmental organizations," Kezerashvili said.
But military experts said the BM-21 is a weapon for battlefield combat and not for use anywhere near civilians. "The BM-21 was designed to attack forces in large areas, and, as a consequence, if you use them in an urban environment, the likelihood of collateral damage is high," said retired Army Maj. Gen. William L. Nash, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/16/AR2008081600502_4.html?sid=ST2008081700211&s_pos=
The rest of the article makes pretty clear that, whichever country went first, they both went in within hours of each other - except that Russian troops had been in Ossetia for years and Georgian troops had not been in Ossetia for years. Yes, Leo, SO & Abkhaz are legally Georgian territory - kind of like how Kurdistan is legally Iraqi territory, & Eritrea was "Ethiopian territory" in 1992. My point was only that Georgia would have needed the tanks to make its way into Ossetia whether the Russians were there or not. When you need tanks get in the door, you're effectively mounting an invasion.
Posted by: glasnost at August 26, 2008 8:47 PM
Georgian troops had not been in Ossetia for years.
This isn't true either. I need someone other than me to make this argument, as I clearly cannot keep my sh*t straight today. The point is that when the MSM identified Georgian armored columns rolling into Ossetia as the beginning of the war, they were basically right, despite all this shuck and jive from the Georgians. And now I must stop tripping over my own shoelaces.
Posted by: glasnost at August 26, 2008 8:51 PM
All this proves once again that the Caucasus still needs the heavy hand of Russia (or Turkey) to keep it quiet. It's been that way for centuries. Russia doesn't like occupying these places - it's expensive and nasty. But the idiotic Christian factions therein, like Northern Ireland, Lebanon, Yugoslavia and others, can't behave and organize themselves. The Christian factions are relatively easy to divide and stir up - something that has been going on since Georgians were under the control of the Turks. The only peace they've known has been under the boot of the Russians. Unfortunately, Christendom in these little republics is not able to organize and defend itself very well. The result is always chaos until clearer heads take control of the bus. Maybe they just drink too much. You know what I'm sayin'
Posted by: José at August 26, 2008 9:29 PM
I do not deny Ossetian's (or Abkhazian) right to self determination. Although I find it strange that small territory with population of 60,000 (less than capacity of Denver Bronko's stadium) is more determined to gain independence than much greater population of their brethren residing on much greater territory. At some point both will decide to talk about unification. The only question remains in what form, as free or as Russian subjects (I think it is safe to rule out Georgia as contender).
Neither party is innocent of cause but it is certainly not Georgia's design. And not even Ossetia's or Abkhazia's. Russia must pay for it or we all will suffer later.
If "SO & Abkhaz are legally Georgian territory"
then "When you need tanks get in the door, you're effectively mounting an invasion"
makes up for very poor excuse.
at August 26, 2008 9:29 PM
Josh Foust: Michael, I accused you of not doing your homework.
That is not even remotely what you said.
This is what you said: by his own admission he went into the country—just like his colleague Brietbart in Baku—knowing absolutely nothing about the place beforehand.
That is a lie. You are a completely full of shit individual. If you take issue with the regional experts I quoted you should argue with them instead of lying about me and telling your readers that I called myself an ignoramus.
Don't make this personal when it doesn't have to be.
I'm not making it personal because you criticized what I wrote. I'm making it personal because you lied about me in public.
You are a dick.
Apologize or get off my blog.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 26, 2008 9:31 PM
Michael, is there any way you can asek why they didn't take out the tunnel entrance from the air...this is to me the key question of the conflict...and why US satellite assets did not pick up the advance sooner. thanks.
Posted by: jp at August 26, 2008 9:38 PM
I'm going to put this as diplomatically as I can, Mr. Totten, because I can see you are unusually touchy on the subject. From your article, you appear to have interviewed only the following: a media spokesman employed by the Georgian government, an academic well known for his anti-Russian views, two wounded Georgian soldiers, and one wounded Georgian civilian. You then wrote that you virtually alone among reporters know for sure that Georgia didn't start the war.
Perhaps when writing an article dealing with a conflict that has three participants, it is good to talk to more than just one of them.
Posted by: Angus Mc at August 26, 2008 9:53 PM
Mike,
I can't tell whether you or this Foust guy is right about events. Would be nice to see further confirmation of the events on the ground other than a possibly axe-grinding ex-pat who happens to hate the Kremlin. From the report I don't get the sense that there is much proof beyond these two guys' version of events.
Any hard proof or even substantive circumstantial evidence would be helpful. If this is hard proof, I would expect people in the Pentagon and NATO to take off the kid gloves with Russia and start smacking them around.
It sucks that Russia has pretty much all of western Europe over their oil and natural gas barrel, otherwise they might have a little stiffer backbone on this issue and make Russia pay for this land grab. This would be a nice reason to smack Russia around a little if only there were hard evidence. Perhaps we can go to the two George's (Bush and Tenet) playbook an just "manufacture" some evidence.
Posted by: Graham at August 26, 2008 10:10 PM
Michael,
I look forward to reading this long post when I have a few free minutes. I'm glad you are there to dig a bit deeper into the matter. Last night on German TV a well-known Russia correspondent pointed out that South Ossetia was basically a gift of Stalin's to Georgia. Stalin was a native of Georgia, as you know. If this is true, it certainly casts a different light on the current situation. Was South Ossetia ethnically cleansed by Georgia in the past, explaining the large Georgian population, or was it mixed from the start? To what extent is the alleged close link to Georgia a post-Stalin fiction. This in no way excuses Russian excesses, but maybe you should back up a few steps. I have not read your post in entirety but I scanned it and it appears that you skipped from oldentimes to post-Soviet collapse. There may be something from the Soviet era that explains why the Ossetians (and Abkazians?) really don't want to be part of Georgia.
Posted by: Bikrboy at August 26, 2008 10:51 PM
South Ossetians don't want to be a part of Georgia! I can understand the Georgian government is desparate cause they don't have much of the country left. But if you go ask the Ossetians, they hate the Georgians. Why force them to be in a country they don't to be a part of?
I say give them freedom and rule on their own, not force them into warfare from both sides.
Posted by: karbon at August 26, 2008 10:59 PM
People are asking where is the media confirmation in South Ossetia? How convenient because Human Rights Watch, OCSE monitors, the New York Times, the Times of London, the BBC, and reporters from Le Monde and Turkey have all been denied access by the Russian military or been granted extremely limited access only to the damage they want the media to see.
Instead Russian media has flooded the wire with accounts of Georgian attrocities that took place on August 7-8th. No one has confirmed anywhere near the 2000 deaths initial claimed by the Russian military. And despite the satellite photo referenced above, there are videos and photos online now of people on the streets of South Ossetians celebrating and posing with stolen Georgian military and civilian equipment. In Abkazia, there are reports that individual Russian soldiers have set up a market for stolen Georgian military and civilian goods just inside the border. For some reason, I have a feeling that will also be a difficult story for the Western media to track down as well. We can all expect a swift denial in/by the Russian press forthwith.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2614559/Russian-troops-accused-of-selling-loot-from-Georgia.html
Georgia conflict: Russian troops accused of selling loot
Posted by: pj48 at August 26, 2008 11:12 PM
Thanks for the excellent article, Michael!
For the benefit of others who, like me, have come to this site for the first time and who might wonder if the article is actually unbiased, I wondered the same thing. The reason I believe it is because it explains a couple of odd things I've noticed about the situation while surfing various news sources in the past few weeks. I've added a URL to my livejournal where I've put an entry discussing the details for anyone interested; I think you can click on my sig to get to it.
Oh, and a couple of factual points some other commenters have missed:
- Yes, the Georgians also had forces in South Ossetia before this conflict started. Evidently the "peacekeeping" forces in South Ossetia were a combination of Russians and Georgians. What this article reveals is that the Russians sent in forces above and beyond their agreed peacekeeping force level at the same time or even prior to the Georgians doing so on 7 August.
- The Ossetians moved into this area of Georgia some centuries ago, at the same time as they settled in the area of Russia immediately to the north. So yes, it was part of Georgia before the Ossetians moved in, and Georgians and Ossetians have evidently been living together in the area for centuries.
Posted by: Warren J. Dew at August 26, 2008 11:18 PM
Oh, couple more things brought up in comments since I started my post:
- The Georgians didn't take out the Roki tunnel from the air because they don't have much of an air force, and nothing that could take out a major tunnel, which is a very difficult target.
- Even the Russians have admitted that their estimate of 2000 South Ossetian civilians dead was wrong, and their current estimate is less than 200.
I promise to shut up now.
Posted by: Warren J. Dew at August 26, 2008 11:27 PM
Sorry I had to take apart this Graham guy's comment below -
What everyone needs to realize is that Georgia is a weak nascent/new state and Democracy and a multi ethnic one at that... Russia is far far stronger and wealthier than they are... so of course Russia picked this fight, engineered it, and mastered the propoganda... they're the fucking KG fing B and they're the ones who mastered this to begin with for the past 80 years...
You see Russia like China doesn't have to worry about foreign reporters or far left libs in Europe or the US... bcs although they're the masters of cleansing and atrocities (starting with Stalin) they don't give a shit what Code Pink and a bunch of fruit loops in the Western press say....
These fools can only focus on 1 bad guy the US (George Bush) and it's little brother Israel...
Graham -Ummmm yeah that would be bcs the Russian military won't allow in any reporters... lol!
Mike - I can't tell whether you or this Foust guy is right about events. Would be nice to see further confirmation of the events on the ground other than a possibly axe-grinding ex-pat who happens to hate the Kremlin. From the report I don't get the sense that there is much proof beyond these two guys' version of events.
Foust played his hand already... Mike's piece is measured and inquisitive and probing.. Foust comes off like a biased dick as Michael already stated. Any hard proof or even substantive circumstantial evidence would be helpful. If this is hard proof, I would expect people in the Pentagon and NATO to take off the kid gloves with Russia and start smacking them around. Graham, you must live in Alice in fing Wonderland?
Smack Russia around in a mountainous ethnic diverse area that they've owend for the most part of the past 80 years while we have over 120,000 troops in Afghanistan and Iraq? LOL!
Yeah we can just smack Russia (Soviet KGB) around at a whim's notice... we'll just pull out our invisible airplane from Super Woman and casually fly in and kick their asses.
It sucks that Russia has pretty much all of western Europe over their oil and natural gas barrel, otherwise they might have a little stiffer backbone on this issue and make Russia pay for this land grab. This would be a nice reason to smack Russia around a little if only there were hard evidence.Yeah if only there were ""hard"" evidence than all of the Europeans and the US would simply fly in the Super Friends and ""whack around"" these Russian gooons...
Perhaps we can go to the two George's (Bush and Tenet) playbook an just "manufacture" some evidence.Not that I'm commenting on the veracity of that last statement 1 way or the other... but somehow from the rest of your post I'm not surprised at that last statement either. Posted by: Mike_Nargizian
at August 26, 2008 11:39 PM
Sorry I had to take apart this Graham guy's comment below -
What everyone needs to realize is that Georgia is a weak nascent/new state and Democracy and a multi ethnic one at that... Russia is far far stronger and wealthier than they are... so of course Russia picked this fight, engineered it, and mastered the propoganda... they're the fucking KG fing B and they're the ones who mastered this to begin with for the past 80 years...
You see Russia like China doesn't have to worry about foreign reporters or far left libs in Europe or the US... bcs although they're the masters of cleansing and atrocities (starting with Stalin) they don't give a shit what Code Pink and a bunch of fruit loops in the Western press say....
These fools can only focus on 1 bad guy the US (George Bush) and it's little brother Israel...
Graham -Ummmm yeah that would be bcs the Russian military won't allow in any reporters... lol!
Mike - I can't tell whether you or this Foust guy is right about events. Would be nice to see further confirmation of the events on the ground other than a possibly axe-grinding ex-pat who happens to hate the Kremlin. From the report I don't get the sense that there is much proof beyond these two guys' version of events.
Foust played his hand already... Mike's piece is measured and inquisitive and probing.. Foust comes off like a biased dick as Michael already stated.
Any hard proof or even substantive circumstantial evidence would be helpful. If this is hard proof, I would expect people in the Pentagon and NATO to take off the kid gloves with Russia and start smacking them around.Graham, you must live in Alice in fing Wonderland?
Smack Russia around in a mountainous ethnic diverse area that they've owend for the most part of the past 80 years while we have over 120,000 troops in Afghanistan and Iraq? LOL!
Yeah we can just smack Russia (Soviet KGB) around at a whim's notice... we'll just pull out our invisible airplane from Super Woman and casually fly in and kick their asses.
It sucks that Russia has pretty much all of western Europe over their oil and natural gas barrel, otherwise they might have a little stiffer backbone on this issue and make Russia pay for this land grab. This would be a nice reason to smack Russia around a little if only there were hard evidence.Yeah if only there were ""hard"" evidence than all of the Europeans and the US would simply fly in the Super Friends and ""whack around"" these Russian gooons...
Perhaps we can go to the two George's (Bush and Tenet) playbook an just "manufacture" some evidence.Not that I'm commenting on the veracity of that last statement 1 way or the other... but somehow from the rest of your post I'm not surprised at that last statement either. Posted by: Mike_Nargizian
at August 26, 2008 11:41 PM
Dear Michael,
Thank you so much for the article. It truthfully reflects the history of the conflicts. I’m Georgian born American citizen. I am blessed and very proud to be an American. I came here in 1994 so I have lived through the events you describe up to that date.
Let me say also, I read your WSJ article in which you interviewed several women from Gori area. These women told you they were so grateful for the U.S. support. Any moral support, any truthful information such this helps. Georgian-Russian relationship before the war was not the best as you known it. The voice of Georgian people was not heard until Russian tanks finally charged towards Tbilisi. But at least now the world sees Putin’s true face and his desire to bring nearby territories into his submission. Thanks again! You don’t know what it means to the Georgians when the simple truth is told. Russia lies so much that world doesn’t know whom to believe. I don’t hate Russian people. I had lots of Russian friends growing up in Georgia. What I can’t understand is how could Russian people let Putin go so far. By “so far” I don’t just mean Georgia. Putin is literally moving Russia back into 19th and 20th century. Why don’t Russian people see that? Why do they want to relive most horrible times in their history?
Jose,
My mother is Georgian, my father-Azeri. My father was born and raised in Georgia. I’m an American who was born and raised in Georgia and most importantly I am Christian. You offended my religion but I am not going to respond to that.
Instead, I agree with you…for centuries Georgia suffered invasions and ruthless rulers. You mentioned Russian Empire and Turks. Did you forget Persians? Or how about Mongols? I think it’s remarkable that Georgia has survived all these and conserved its own language, alphabet, culture and its religion. It only shows how strong Georgian spirit is.
You say: “Russia doesn't like occupying these places - it's expensive and nasty. “
I am not a historian but anyone knows that it has been Russian Empire’s utmost goal to gain more land and territories. Later it was Russian Red Army that invaded Georgia in 1921. I don’t understand how hard it is to get the facts straight. Unless of course you live in places like Russia, where people are misinformed through TV. Although in today’s world one would have Internet to get different sources of info.
Insufficiently Sensitive,
You wrote:
“I echo the comment of Mike Z: the wall posters shown in this article are all in English, even the anti-Putin obscenity is in English. Those messages are not directed to the locals in Tbilisi, they're directed partly at Europe but mostly at the US. Are they the work of Patrick Worms?”
How do you differentiate that the poster messages are partly directed at Europe but mostly at the US?
And why are they in English? Well, this is my guess… Georgians don’t need to hear those messages because they already know. I’m sure there some posters in Russian language but it’s not like they will be shown on the Russian TV or something. It only makes sense that yes! the Georgians are trying to convey their message to the West and US. When I first saw the posters it only looked natural to me that they were in English.
Warren J. Dew,
Thanks so much for your comment on history of South Ossetia. Here is copy from Wikipedia:
“The Ossetians are originally descendants of the Alans, a Sarmatian tribe. They became Christians during the early Middle Ages, under Georgian and Byzantine influences. Under Mongol rule, they were pushed out of their medieval homeland south of the Don River in present-day Russia and part migrated towards and over the Caucasus mountains, to Georgia20 where they formed three distinct territorial entities. Digor in the west came under the influence of the neighboring Kabard people, who introduced Islam. Tualläg in the south became what is now South Ossetia, part of the historical Georgian principality of Samachablo21 where Ossetians found refuge from Mongol invaders. Iron in the north became what is now North Ossetia, under Russian rule from 1767. Most Ossetians are now Christian (approximately 61%); there is also a significant Muslim minority.”
Now you know how Georgians feel. Georgians remember their history way back. They consider that Ossetians came down from North (Don River) to Georgia. Samachablo simply means that that territory was owned by Georgian aristocratic family Machabelli. But no war is fair, no war is black and white. To Georgians these conflicts orchestrated by Russia are not about territories anymore. This is about freedom and democracy. More than a decade ago Soviet Union fell apart. Georgia was one of the first former USSR countries to fight for independence. Never did I think history whould repeat itself.
If anybody interested, look up “April 9 1989, Tbilisi” in Wikipedia. There is reference to the Abkhazian conflict.
Also, you can see the April 9, 1989 massacre on YouTube now. I didn't even try. Brings back bad memories...
at August 27, 2008 1:42 AM
There are two issues here: One is Tottens intelectual integrity, and the other is the matter at hand, who started the serious agression. J. Foust quite correctly points out that Tottens report can be best read as a propaganda-piece and not as honest reporting, and the fact that Totten chooses to obsess over one line that admittedly wasnt very well formulated by Foust shows, at least to me, that he knows he is guilty. Its a internet rule-of-thumb, when the opposition starts getting hangups on personal issues, they do not have a substantive argument.
"You are a dick. Apologize or get off my blog. " Truly spoken like a intelectual caught in dishonesty.
The fact remains that Tottens sources are wildly partial. So the text should be read as a Georgian propaganda-missive in order to explain to the blogosphere the question we are all wondering: how on earth did they screw up that badly and commit suicide-by-cop on a national level? Totten reports the historical revision version, that the russians started it all. Its Info-war 101, how to cover up a screwup: Hire in semi-respected professionals to amplify the meta-story, so that the piece can be used as reference by others to cover the facts on the ground. All discussions from now on in will not be about the issues at hand but about Tottens credentials. Job well done, Totten, hope they paid you well.
The real issue, on the other hand is much less clearcut. The question remains why on earth Georgia decided to go all in and cause the destruction of all they had been building for the last years, what their contigency plans were, what their best and worst-case scenarios were. Post-Kosovo they must have clearly understood that the russians would not care one whit about the protestations of sovereign nationstates right to lands occupied by unwilling minorities. If Totten had been a journalist instead of a mouthpiece, he would have gone in on these questions much harder. As it stands now, the report is just that, a report of one sides version of the story. That does not make it truth, and this is Tottens fallacy: he buys the propaganda.
Posted by: fnord at August 27, 2008 2:17 AM
I enjoyed reading the article and the comments posted underneath. Interesting to see people who have no actual connection with what's happening here a) take it so personally and b) assume they know better than people on the ground.
The truth is, there is no objective truth. Totten's article offers a pretty one sided view, yes, but if you had been here with me in Tbilisi for the past 2 weeks, you would know that all we have been able to do, in a region where the media is not free, and where the supposedly free international media has proven itself both inaccurate and often biased, is listen to and read reports on every side and somehow draw your own conclusions about whats going on. Hence we have watched Russia Today, between CNN and BBC world, listened to independent reports and testimonies, monitored civil.ge and rferl and heard panic and rumours on the street. Theres no point knocking someone down for investigating the story on one side. The other side has its own reports. We need both and we cant always rely on the big stations to find this out for us.
The second point I have to make is to Karbon, who stated 'if you ask the ossetians they hate the georgians'... please do not insult the people of this region by making wild comments about what they think. You can always find people who say they 'hate' another nation. But to perpetuate the myth that all Ossetians hate Georgians is not only ignorant its also incredibly irresponsible. There are, as the article notes, thousands of Ossetians who live in Georgia and are well integrated. They choose not to live in south Ossetia because its run by gangs. The villages destroyed in this war were mixed Georgian-Ossetian villages. Some of the few remaining Georgians that remained in Ossetia were killed last night. Others have been forcibly deported. Armed Abkhaz rebels have been raping and murdering Georgians in the Kodori Gorge, which was until a week ago Georgian controlled territory- the residents are mainly deportees from the previous wars in Abkhazia by the way. We have many Russians living in Tbilisi. Georgians living in Russia are now shown on you-tube being attacked by facist gangs. How long before the hate turns around and Georgians turn on their minorities? I hope it wont happen. People live on both sides of the ethnic barriers you imagine exist and until now their lives were relatively peaceful....we have 18 sizeable minorities in Georgia. This region cannot afford to let its ethnic relatics deteriorate into the kind of hatred you are promoting.
The reason I know these things and the reason i had to post a comment is because I live in Georgia and work with minorities every day. So do not level accusations at me of being ill-informed. Think, before making rash comments along ethnic lines, what impact you are having. Presidents Saakashvili and Medvedev may not have to think about consequences of their actions at this societal level but we can.
Posted by: ExpatinTbilisi at August 27, 2008 4:56 AM
Mike_Nargizian,
In all fairness "smack Russia around" does not have to mean military action. Nor it have to happen immediately. With Russia it may be long and careful process but pay they will.
"Perhaps we can go to the two George's (Bush and Tenet) playbook an just "manufacture" some evidence."
And I agree with you, this is too cheap of a shot on the part of Graham to even dignify it with response.
Posted by: leo at August 27, 2008 5:14 AM
Wow what is truly evident is not only is Michael Trotten under cyber attack he is also under Soviet/Russian Sockpuppet attack.
Yes all those folks trotting out the Russian/Soviet party line, j'accuse of being Soviet Sockpuppets.
Another Soviet who defected had much to say about these sorts of affairs. Anatoliy Golitsyn called most of the crap that is happening in his letter to the CIA.
Posted by: Pierre Legrand at August 27, 2008 5:28 AM
Greetings from Moscow.
mg, you write "it has been Russian Empire's utmost goal to gain more land and territories".
It has been indeed. At most times in the recent past. It also has been the British Empire's goal at most points in the past, but somehow people aren't bringing it up right now. Presenting Russia's current actions as a land grab trivializes the situation needlessly.
You also write, "at least now the world sees Putin’s true face and his desire to bring nearby territories into his submission. [...] Putin is literally moving Russia back into 19th and 20th century."
Putin went to KGB school. Border security is one of KGB's functions. Being a very good student, what he's doing is securing the perimeter. He's afraid that if he doesn't secure the perimeter, he'll get color revolutions in the likes of Tatarstan, which has oil, and these will be followed by treatment just like NATO's bombardment of Belgrade. There is ample precedent to be concerned on his side.
Understanding this fear is key to understanding Russia, and avo