June 14, 2007

Feels Like 1967 Again

By Michael J. Totten

Former Deputy Chief of IDF Intelligence Yaacov Amidror talks to Ynet News about what may happen now that Hamas won the Palestinian war and is ruler of Gaza:
We are moving toward a situation in which Gaza will be a formal terror state. In the short term, Israel will face an organized system of guerilla warfare similar to what is going on in Lebanon. This system will grow stronger and stronger with each passing day. In the long term this entity will have long-range missiles and other capabilities, which will affect not only Sderot, but Kiryat Gat and Ashdod as well. Eventually these missiles will reach Haifa.
I don’t know if this is right. Politics, and the wars which pass for politics in the Middle East, is all but impossible to predict. There are too many factions, too many alliance reversals, and too many totally random wild card variables.

Who thought Lebanon would have a five-week shooting war with Fatah Al Islam in the camps? Who saw the Cedar Revolution coming before it exploded? I didn’t predict Israel’s recent invasion of Lebanon (although I should have), nor did I see the “Anbar Awakening” on Iraq’s horizon. All bets will be off if the Iranian people overthrow the Islamic Republic.

But it does look like missile war is replacing terrorist war, at least for the Israelis. (It’s business as usual in Lebanon. As my friend Sean LaFreniere put it over drinks a few hours ago, Beirut is the Beirut of the Middle East again.)

I don’t know how long it has been since a suicide bomber exploded in Israel. It has been a while. Missiles and rockets keep crashing into cities, though, and Israel hasn’t a clue what to do. The rocket makers and launchers are no doubt emboldened by Israel’s flop of a war last year in Lebanon.

So what will Israel do if missiles from Gaza reach Haifa? And if missiles from Lebanon reach Sderot?

The Middle East feels different to me now than it did a few years ago. Something big is going to happen, but I don’t know what and I don’t know when.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at June 14, 2007 12:31 AM
Winner, The 2007 Weblog Awards, Best Middle East or Africa Blog

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