Hi -

As usual, Michael, astute comments and observations. I cannot fathom the anti-war crowd: surely one of the enduring lessons of the 20th century is that radical pacifism kills more than resolute statesmanship.

Looking at the history of the Middle East, the Iranian Revolution marks one of the major historical events since the end of WW2: not so much the rejection of the Shah, but much more the experiment with a theological government. This has been an unmitigated disaster for everyone involved with one exception: the theologians have done very well, thank you.

It's one of the major tragedies of the 20th century that will unfold in the first quarter of the 21st century: appeasement with the likes of Iran's leadership will end up killing millions. I mean, let's get real: the particular Shi'ite theology of the mullahs in Iran is fundamentally centered on a death cult.

May god have mercy on that country.

Hi -

My apologies, Noah, I didn't see that you wrote the article: what I said still applies...

The anti-wat crowd believes a religius fanatic who represses the civil liberties of his countrymen, oppresses minorities, censors the media, undermines democratically-elected nations and whose diplomacy and foreign military adventures, run by a hard core of ideologues, are motivated by oil revenues and a lust for imperial influence....

Wait a sec, do they think George W runs Iran too!?

These people are r.i.d.i.c.u.l.o.u.s. auto-hypocrites. Why O why O do we have to be saddled with them and their lunatic preoccupation with W personally.

anti-war. bah.

Anyone who thinks they could ever have a serious discussion with the likes of Raimondo really ought to have their heads examined.

Another angle:

There is no direct diversion of interest between Israel and Iran. No territorial dispute is involved. The Shiite consituencies in both Iran and Souther Lebanon are less hawkish than their leaderships, and the Iranian regime looks shaky.

On the other hands, there are strong nationalist feelings that cut across the Iranian public. Attack Iran directly, and you earn the long-term hostility of all its constituencies.

So, if the danger is not getting nuked directly but being challenged in a less dramatic way but on a broader front, it may be a good idea NOT to attack Iran. Conventional and sub-conventional armies backed by a nuclear power are something that Israel learned to live with. It will likely pull through the period of uncertainty and see the collapse of the current Persian theocracy.

In the long term, the Arab Sunny regimes are probably the greater threat.

And another thing.

So far as I understand, in like a decade Iran will stop exporting oil. By that time, it either integrates into the world economy (along with its concomitant in free flow of ideas), or become another version of the old USSR. It cannot, like China, rely on size alone (and it's a question how long China holds out without political change).

Which goes to supplement my previous point - it may pay to just sit this out.

Not a bad article, Noah, but wrong in plenty of places.

Those scenarios are red herrings intended to make Raimondo's task of turning America and Israel into the world's leading belligerents much easier.

It's nice to see you acknowledge this, Noah. I only wish they were red herrings, as you toss off so easily, but I could fill this comment thread with conservative blogosphere commentators using exactly this threat as the reason why we have to bomb Teheran. Leftists debate the "they're going to nuke Israel when they get the bomb" argue because they hear it for rightists. It is, in fact, a simpler argument to break than yours, but it's not our fault that hawks keep bringing it up.

What does all of this have to do with Iran today? It has to do with the Islamic Republic's prospects for success in its endeavor to undermine this American-enforced security architecture. Iran is trying to destabilize the Middle East by creating its own set of alliances and clients that it hopes will rival America's.

Okay.

The first response is: what did this security-enforced architecture bring us? It brought us 9/11. Is the argument here that we need to protect Egypt and Saudi Arabia from Iran? From invasion, sure, and that doesn't change whether or not Iran gets nukes, anymore than nukes entitled the USSR to invade Germany. But from... competition? That's precisely the opposite of what we need to do - those regimes need more competition, not less. They might even have to liberalize their regimes to compete. The real problems we face from 'millenial terrorism' - in other words, not playing cat and mouse with troops, but going in for massive suicidal strikes on our homeland - comes from radical Sunnis inside our "allies'" territory - not from Iran.

Are these goals going to be easier or harder to accomplish with the benefit of nuclear deterrence?

Easier. But who cares? These are either irrelevant goals, or unattainable ones. With or without nukes, we have the tools to prevent Iran from doing anything genuinely threatening in the region.
You establish a weak and unsupported causal link here, Noah, where Iran gets nukes = US "flight from the region". What does that mean? Abandoning the bases in Qatar and Bahrain? Not a chance. Ending security guarantees for Israel? No way. How, specifically, do you expect our policy in the region to change? You don't have any specifics. I wonder why that is? Because there aren't any? If anything, as we've already seen, the nuke threat makes us concentrate even harder on undermining the regime, even to the detriment of other priorities, unfortunately.

The larger point is that Iran already has its own sent of contrasting alliances. Somehow, America survives. I don't see how the strategic balance changes. I don't see how a nuclear weapon equals better weapons across the Syrian border. I don't see (and you don't either) any Sunni regimes 'switching sides' to Teheran. I do see governments falling and civil wars, but I see that either way, as an inevitability, now or later. Iran isn't as rich, as technologically advanced, or as militarily capable as the USSR. Its alliances are correspondingly sad and weak, unable to offer anything other than guerilla interference and "dettering of foreign investment". I think we'll live.

In other words, this:

Western acquiescence to a nuclear Iran would do perhaps more than anything else to throw the Middle East into chaos.

Doesn't wash. "Emboldenment" is a false flag. Iran's already not without boldness. Do you expect Hizballah to go back to raining bombs full-time as soon as the first nuke appears? I don't. Hizballah doesn't seem interested in that, either. And even if did, that can be dealt with at the source - or, heck, if not, that would even be a good reason to bomb Iran, a policy they could be dissuaded from, rather than one they probably can't.

Bombing Iran, on the other hand, seems to me, off the top of my head, seems likely to guarantee Iran's increased boldness. I didn't notice Saddamn Hussein becoming pentinent and apologetic. The threat to bomb Iran is the only leverage we have at the moment. Once we play the card, they're going to win the international and regional debate about who's the greatest aggressor, ink a deal with Russia for more help in rebuilding, and never be scared of another bombing.

Saddamn, again, bombed Teheran rather a lot during the Iran-Iraq war and didn't seem to get a lot of cooperation from them out of it. You don't get stability, as the Iraq war demonstrates, from crushing anthills under your feet. The hill erodes. The ants are still around, and they go a little crazy.

Some good points, Glasnost. But what should we do?

I don't think this is resolvable, by the way. We're in damage-control mode here. But I don't see how letting Iran gets nukes helps control it in any way.

And we're not going to talk them out of it, so please see if you can come up with something more creative than "let's have tea and work it out."

From what I can see, the only scenario which offers any real hope for the West is that the people of Iran manage to send the mullahs packing.

Do I see any realistic way this might happen? Not really. The vast majority of the Iranian population (according to people I know who have actually visited Iran, not just to articles kicking around the web) are totally disgusted with their current government. But the government has the guns, and is willing to use them.

glasnost,

Is the argument here that we need to protect Egypt and Saudi Arabia from Iran? From invasion, sure, and that doesn't change whether or not Iran gets nukes, anymore than nukes entitled the USSR to invade Germany. But from... competition? That's precisely the opposite of what we need to do - those regimes need more competition, not less. They might even have to liberalize their regimes to compete.

I'm not one to throw insults around, so I'll call that conclusion... unlikely.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia (and Jordan and Syria and...) have used the Palestinian Issue™ as an excuse for not liberalising - politically or economically - for decades. There is no reason to think that they would switch up now.

And why would they even need to? When you discuss 'competition', what will Iran and the Sunni Arab regimes be competing for? And how? We can look at how Middle Eastern powers have clashed before (Egypt and Saudi Arabia in Yemen, Jordan and Syria, Iraq and Syria, etc) when trying to build regional influence. They 'compete' on the basis of spreading fear rather than earning love. Iran isn't going to convert Sunni Muslims to Shia Islam, and the Sunnis won't be allowed to try to convert the Shia.

'Competition' between Iran and the Sunni Arabs means truck bombs and revolutions, not elections and free media.

The real problems we face from 'millenial terrorism' - in other words, not playing cat and mouse with troops, but going in for massive suicidal strikes on our homeland - comes from radical Sunnis inside our "allies'" territory - not from Iran.

This isn't either-or stuff. In one sense, yes, Iran is just another regional up-and-comer looking for influence. But their partnership and - broad - ideological affinity with jihadist terrorists (as demonstrated by their working relationships with various such groups) means they're more than that. Nukes aside.

There are more than a few al-Qaeda types living in Iran, either under some sort of loose arrest or being protected.

Doesn't wash. "Emboldenment" is a false flag. Iran's already not without boldness.

Therefore? 'Emboldenment' isn't an off-on choice. One can be further emboldened.

Do you expect Hizballah to go back to raining bombs full-time as soon as the first nuke appears? I don't. Hizballah doesn't seem interested in that, either. And even if did, that can be dealt with at the source - or, heck, if not, that would even be a good reason to bomb Iran, a policy they could be dissuaded from, rather than one they probably can't.

Right. We paranoid types are seeing a threat where none exists. And you rationalist folks think nuclear brinkmanship with the mullahs is preferable to... what did you call it?

they're going to win the international and regional debate about who's the greatest aggressor, ink a deal with Russia for more help in rebuilding, and never be scared of another bombing.

Last point first, if they're not worried about being bombed again, then our first bombing wasn't extensive enough.

But who cares about the international or regional debate? The Euros will bitch and whine, but (frankly) fuck them. They don't want to live under a nuclear umbrella. The great Arab street, bless 'em, aren't likely to back a Jew or an American when they can support a Muslim nutter with suicide bombers on call and missiles in the silos. See also: Saddam, Gaddafi, etc.

Bombing Iran, on the other hand, seems to me, off the top of my head, seems likely to guarantee Iran's increased boldness. I didn't notice Saddamn Hussein becoming pentinent and apologetic.

Do you mean Desert Fox? It seemed to shut the guy up for a while, though repeating it every few months would have been preferable.

Since you think Iran would become more bold following a bombing campaign, why do you point to Saddam becoming, erm, not apologetic? He wasn't emboldened, was he.

What the Iranians want is their old job back. Namely: Policeman of the Persian Gulf.

Could Irana nd the US ever be friends again? I thtink yes, for sure. The current relationship is like that of lovers who hurt oneanother very, very badly. But still cannot get the other out of their thoughts.

Noah Pollack is correct when he says that the existential threat from an Iranian nuclear weapon is massively hyped by elements in the Israeli security state and their supporters -- because they want to protethe US' Mid East security structures.... but here's a real question....

Would the US' interests be better served by making a better relationship with Iran and bringing it - somewhat - back into the fold (assuming that were possible) at the expense of Israel's unchallenged primacy in the current set up?

ie. a lot closer to Iran, a little furtjer from Israel resulting in a cheaper and more secure Middle East, thus able to combat the real threat, which is nihilistic, non-state Wahabis Salafi Jihadism that advocates endless war...

Impossible? Unthinkable??

Iran, Israel and the US were all allies once. And like Israelis, Iranians know what it is to be invaded and bombed by Arab dictatorships...

Iran is only 50% Persian. The rest is mostly disaffected minorities who have serious grudges against the theocratic dictatorship.

There are only two reasons the US has not attacked Iran:

1. Russia and China have threatened escalation of conflict should the US attack their "client" state.

2. Europe fears that out of control oil prices from any military action in Iran would damage EU economies.

Eventually, those reasons may dim in significance against the overwhelming need to put out the primary instigatory flame of middle eastern terrorism at this time.

But I don't see how letting Iran gets nukes helps control it in any way.

Probably it doesn't. I don't see how stand-alone bombing does, either. Even if it puts a temporary halt to the nuke program, it increases the crazy in the government.

One approach is to leverage some kind of concession or some kind of threat or both - whatever - into getting inspectors on the ground - even if it's just , supposedly, to monitor a pretend civilian program. Then you help the inspectors make headlines with something beyond the weak stuff we have now, like a big stockpile of 90% enriched plutonium, or something mated to a delivery platform. Then you aggressively morph the inspection program into something steadily more invasive with the power to confiscate supplies.

Not my favorite plan, though. Sounds good, but would have to be done without bombing, and may not be feasible.

My favorite plan involves sending a universal message, "scr*w the nukes, they don't buy you a dollar's worth of concessions", and following it up by not conceding anything - although we can certainly keep making our opposition smarter.

With or without nukes, Iran remains a problem until some degree of peaceful, internally-ordered transfer of power occurs. That's what we need to focus on, by forcefully standing up to outside-the-borders aggression, and refusing to be suckered by internal huffing and puffing into being their country's Enemy No 1, nukes included.

Power changes hands quite often in Teheran. Ten years after they get nukes and find out it hasn't gained them squat, whatever push they mount will die out. Kind of like how this little push has deeply unpopularized Mr. Ahmanedidjad already. In fact, I think odds are good that the next president, with some kind of wink and a nod, tries publicly or privately to cut some kind of deal with us. I doubt it will involve renouncing nukes up front, but it might involve something we can leverage into aggressive inspections, and then get the job done without them ever having to consent formally at all.

Leftists debate the "they're going to nuke Israel when they get the bomb" argue because they hear it for rightists. It is, in fact, a simpler argument to break than yours, but it's not our fault that hawks keep bringing it up.

I agree that it's unlikely, but how exactly do you "break" it?

Here's the reason that I don't totally dismiss it: the Holocaust denial. Iran has done a masterful job of buying time for their weapons program, and I could convince myself that it's part of a rational scheme to advance their interests. Except for the Holocaust business. It attracts unnecessary attention and ties the hands of Europeans who might otherwise be willing to let them slide for another year. And, of course, it's completely demented. I haven't figured out how to reconcile it with any clear-headed strategy.

Microraptor: The current relationship is like that of lovers who hurt one another very, very badly.

This is silly. It may sort of describe the relationship between the United States and France, but the Islamic Republic? Come on.

You're from Iran, right? Maybe you feel this way about the United States, but you are nothing like the Ayatollah Khameini. Sorry for the cheap psychoanalysis, but I think you're projecting.

There is no love to lose between the United States and the rulers of Iran.

Noah,

in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973. Even though some of the Arab countries were allied with the Soviet Union, Israel repulsed the invaders, and in the latter two wars even captured territory from the attacking armies.

Not to nit-pick, but Israel captured territory from the Arabs in all of those wars.

Israel, Iran and the U.S. could be friends. But not with the mullahs in charge. That seems obvious.

Therefore? 'Emboldenment' isn't an off-on choice. One can be further emboldened.

Emboldened to... what? Talk tougher? Invade someone? Send even more money somewhere than they already are? Send better weapons they don't have? Sell nuclear weapons to al-quieda? What kind of actions are waiting behind the door for that critical level of "emboldenment"? Anything they haven't already done, or just more of it? If it's just more of it, that's a very fallible theory. "Just more of it" is likely to run out of steam and die without accomplishing anything, just like this round has.

Since you think Iran would become more bold following a bombing campaign, why do you point to Saddam becoming, erm, not apologetic? He wasn't emboldened, was he.

Well, after quite a few rounds of bombing, he was still, apparently, the biggest threat to America in the world, all the way down the road as far as 2002. That's why we invaded him, right?

And why would they even need to? When you discuss 'competition', what will Iran and the Sunni Arab regimes be competing for? And how? We can look at how Middle Eastern powers have clashed before (Egypt and Saudi Arabia in Yemen, Jordan and Syria, Iraq and Syria, etc) when trying to build regional influence. They 'compete' on the basis of spreading fear rather than earning love.

This isn't completely incorrect, but it's astigmatic. There is competition based on governance around the edges - Hizballah, Hamas, and the Sadr movement are all attempting to compete on this, as does the MB in Egypt. Smaller countries in the ME - Kuwait, the Gulf satrapies,
are competing with the big ones via governance. As for Iran and Saudi Arabia competing with car bombs, I'm not sure if we're trying to stop this, or encourage it, right now. But I think the possibility is there for Shias and Sunnis to compete based on political liberalization. Shias mostly have the edge right now, and I think it's a factor.

Dare I grant myself a 'GMTA*'?

(Great Minds Think Alike.)

glasnost,

What kind of actions are waiting behind the door for that critical level of "emboldenment"?

There is no measurable 'critical level'. You might be being sarcastic, but you seem very convinced of what will and will not happen. War is typically unpredictable, which makes assumptions like yours (nuclear Iran not much more serious than un-nuclear Iran) dangerous. My side makes its own assumptions, but typically acknowledge the possibility (and dangers) of being wrong.

Well, after quite a few rounds of bombing, he was still, apparently, the biggest threat to America in the world, all the way down the road as far as 2002. That's why we invaded him, right?

I might have said something like that in 2002. Even today, I don't find myself thinking 'too bad Saddam isn't in charge'. But I can blame my starry-eyed youth (being 16-17 during the Iraq invasion debate).

That said, there wasn't much bombing 1999-2002. Not nearly enough.

But which position are you taking? On the one hand, you say Iran will be emboldened after being bombed. On the other, you sarcastically point to a less than threatening Saddam in 2002. Which is it?

As for Iran and Saudi Arabia competing with car bombs, I'm not sure if we're trying to stop this, or encourage it, right now.

Iran versus Saudi Arabia? If we can find a way to keep oil prices at current levels, I'm all for it.

But I think the possibility is there for Shias and Sunnis to compete based on political liberalization. Shias mostly have the edge right now, and I think it's a factor.

Most/all 'political liberalization' would be a means to an end. What would the Sunni Arab/Iran clash be over? Influence and power. Liberalisation might be encouraged in order to take power (Shiites in eastern Saudi Arabia, for instance), but these things are all means to ends. Whoever wins out, the likelihood is that any liberalisation would be fleeting.

Last point first, if they're not worried about being bombed again, then our first bombing wasn't extensive enough.

#1: See Iran-Iraq war. See, in fact, the long history of Iranian leaders getting bombed since 1979. The MEQ took out half of their leaders in the first year. They weren't moderated. On the other hand, they were moderated to end that war - returning to the status quo - when it looked unlikely they were going to win. Are you seriously suggesting that the U.S. would take this bombing beyond WMD sites? See point #2, but doubled.

But who cares about the international or regional debate? The Euros will bitch and whine, but (frankly) fuck them. They don't want to live under a nuclear umbrella.

The great Arab street, bless 'em, aren't likely to back a Jew or an American when they can support a Muslim nutter with suicide bombers on call and missiles in the silos. See also: Saddam, Gaddafi, etc.

You've made my point for me. In a fight for popularity, getting bombed by Americans is very helpful for getting support from first, the region, and second, the ROW. If Europe doesn't want to play ball with your arms-control plan, you have no arms control plan. We managed to get Iraq to a point where we could bomb them as much as we wanted without losing anything, even if we didn't gain anything either. Iran is not at that point, on my judgment. Different decade.

More to the point, we bombed Iraq until it turned, mentally, into North Korea. That's what we can do for Iran, with bombs. That and delay their weapons programs. But not stop them.

But which position are you taking? On the one hand, you say Iran will be emboldened after being bombed. On the other, you sarcastically point to a less than threatening Saddam in 2002. Which is it?

A good question. I don't think Saddamn was ever much of a threat between 1992 and 2002, but I don't think Iran is much of a threat right now, either. My bar for threat is fairly high, especially since I think our over-sensitivity to threat helps us systematically create problems we're supposedly trying to solve.

On the other hand, I don't think bombing him made him less of a threat. What did we bomb? Radar, C3 facilities, Republican guard barracks? What, precisely, about Saddamn's regime changed for the better after that? As far as I know, nothing.

Most of Saddamn's disarming in the 1990's came when he was playing ball with us, after Gulf War I, which marked a drastic change in our relations with Iraq. As sanctions and bombings got old and stale, he played ball with us less and less over time. I think the record supports that statement.

This is a good debate.

but you seem very convinced of what will and will not happen.

Kind of a characteristic of mine. But I'm asking a real question here. I'm not just pushing your buttons - I want to hear the answer. What will Iran specifically do with nukes that they're not doing right now? If they'll do "more" of something, what, and how much, and why can't we combat it the same way we already do? Isn't the key to plausibly arguing that an Iranian bomb will
"make everything harder" to be able to specify what will be harder and how it will be harder - and more to the point, no longer combatable? I can't think of anything.

Yeah, there's some level greater than zero of catastrophe, I guess. How much death and trauma are you willing to put the region through - right now - in order to prevent the possibly of death and trauma to come? You can bomb Iran's WMD and maybe hope they give up, but if they don't, you have put all of your eggs in controlling their WMD program with ballistic missiles. What do you do then? Invade and occupy? So, previous question. How much death now to avoid death later?

I see the best hope for a nuke-free Iranian as following their dramatic political liberalization. I'm not in favor of decades of almost-war or intermittent bombing, because I see it as slowing that down.

glasnost: Most of Saddamn's disarming in the 1990's came when he was playing ball with us, after Gulf War I

Notice that he played ball right after we kicked his ass, and stopped playing ball after it had been a while.

Look, I don't want to bomb Iran every two years. That's not what I'm saying. I think that would be idiotic. Either threaten to do it and don't actually do it, or terminate the regime. Half-assed wars should be out of the question at this point.

My point is that I think you're undervaluing the use of force in the Middle East. Force against guerillas doesn't accomplish very much, but credible threats of overwhelming and unstopplable force against regimes with assets and addresses does.

I am not advocating a war with Iran. But I think the threat needs to be on the table even though I don't want to use it.

We should probably consider support to anti-regime elements inside Iran, at least loud moral support as Reagan did for the people behind the Berlin Wall. The government of Iran is not the only force that can be emboldened by what we say and do. The anti-regime movement is large, and those I have spoken to in that movement say loud moral support from America would help rather than hurt. This lines up very well with our values of preferring not-war to war and supporting human rights and democracy.

MJT: "Force against guerillas doesn't accomplish very much, but credible threats of overwhelming and unstopplable force against regimes with assets and addresses does."

This might be true when you've got your run-of-the-mill gangster types in power like Assad, or Noriega, or whoever. But I don't think it applies in Iran's case.

Iran fought against Iraq in one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century for close to a decade. Yes, it was mostly the Iranian people who suffered and not the mullahs themselves, but the same would be true of a U.S. campaign against Iran. The only way to effectively target the regime would be to invade, something the U.S. is hardly in the position to do right now. The only other practical option would be to simply bomb the hell out of them, which would hurt the civilian population a lot more than the key targets in the regime, all of whom would be hiding deep underground.

The only other thing I can think of isn't an option at all: sending in small groups of special forces. Sounds cool, but in all likelihood would result in scores of Americans being captured and held as hostages. Bad scene.

I think Iran will have to do something seriously evil before America can muster the willpower necessary to actually invade them. I think an invasion would be a lot easier and cheaper if they weren't worried about "collateral damage" or being in the media spotlight. This will only happen, of course, after Iran is implicated in something major.

I think the loud moral support (isn't that what Bush is doing?) is probably the best option at this point. The people who control Iran are not ex-lovers, they are our enemies in every way. I doubt anyone in the U.S. thinks of Iran as an ex.

Part of me suspects the Iranian bomb is a bluff and they have no shot at destroying Israel. They may think that it is their only chance for the failed revolution to survive.

If it isn't a bluff and they actually destroy Israel it will be the end of Iran. I would hope that the U.S. matches the of Iranian dead with the of Israeli dead for payback.

It wouldn't hurt Iran, Israel, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Iraq and the U.S.(probably gaza also) if the mullahs decided to take their loot and go to France with their heads on their shoulders;)

It is indeed correct that iraq's bombing of Iran hurt the people, and not the clerics, and thus did not deter Iran from pursuing their war with Iraq, which is why, if we DO decide that we have to take out their nuclear infrastructure, we should time it to coincide with a large meeting of the most powerful Iranian clerics, and take them out, too. The rest of them would indeed get that kind of message, and would be much more likely to moderate than otherwise.

I'd caution against the loud moral for the opposition in Iran. The history of Iranian-American relations makes it very easy for the mullahs to claim their opponents are American spies.

It would seem that the concensus amongst Iranian ex-partriates, like Amil Imani

http://www.amilimani.com/

(and not the mullah apologist variety like Canadian professor Shiraz Dossa) is that political, moral and economic support to opposition groups is the best chance for a regime change. Iran is an economic basket case and any economic sanctions will hit it hard. Bombing, it is suggested can only serve to strengthen the mullahs--this is an argument often made and it seems to be consistent with these opinions.

Btw, anyone who questions whether the possession of nuclear weapons by the mullahs will make any difference displays a complete lack of understanding of what these people are all about. They are not interested in doing geopolitical tangos with other 'comptetitors'. They are fascists, religious fascists with apocalyptic tendencies and who have shown that they have no hesitation in murdering 150,000 political prisoners, torturing and imprisoning hundreds and hundreds of thousands and sacrificing their population endlessly in war.

An examination of the Peoples Mohjeddin of Iran (PMOI) site and for the daily tortures and public hangings--men, women and teenagers will easily provide an up-to-date visceral appreciation of this regime and all its capacities

It's not rocket science to figure out what these fucks can do with nuclear weapons

"...and the United States would almost certainly be forced from the region."

Oh if it could only be so! As a US citizen and taxpayer, it would be great to have my Presidents focus on us again; the secretaries of state visit our real allies; tax money going to help US citizens rather than corrupt dictators. The Middle East has ceased to be worth the trouble. The oil is drying up and the problems are piling up. Israel, let's do lunch now and again but the rest? Who needs the headaches?

I disagree entirely with realpolitik arguments for allowing Iran to go nuclear, such as those advanced by Glasnost. A clever debater can always make his arguments, but his general proposition that a nuclear Iran would not fundamentally change the power structure in the middle east is just plain foolish. Even if they didn't immediately use them, it would allow Iran to push harder on all of its other fronts (terrorism and military incursion against Israel, destabilization of Iraq, etc) with pretty much total impunity. If I had the energy to look, I imagine that I could find similar types of arguments that were made for allowing Hitler to fortify the Rhineland, take Sudetenland, etc.

One could also turn the tables on Glasnost and ask, what is the big cost to the U.S. and Israel if they do put the nuclear program out of business? Everyone in the world secretly wants it. It'll just be a replay of the bombing of the Osiris reactor. If the general premise is that the Iranian regime is going to fall, why not buy ourselves a little more time for that to happen? Once Iran goes nuclear, obviously, the cost of any such action jumps exponentially, or becomes prohibitive.

I also must second the argument made by JSinger. One could play with realpolitik, except for this damn business about wiping Israel off the map, which was repeated again yesterday. This cannot be viewed as routine propoganda. I read that the Iranians have produced a high cost, multi-segmented t.v. series on the holocaust and Palestine. They are obsessed with the subject in a very disturbing way, and have made it a cornerstone of their ideology. If Iran goes nuclear, and something does happen to Israel, people will be asking themselves, just like after WWII, how on earth they could have allowed it to happen.

By the way, I don't necessarily think it's the world's business to protect Israel. Let Israel take out the reactors. But somebody should.

My point is that I think you're undervaluing the use of force in the Middle East. Force against guerillas doesn't accomplish very much, but credible threats of overwhelming and unstopplable force against regimes with assets and addresses does.

I wouldn't universally argue against that. Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Sort of a case-by-case assessment. In this case, I could be wrong. Perhaps we'd bomb Iran, and they'd then give up their nuke programs, or end their support for their proxies, or strike a better deal than they would have before. I'm not being sarcastic. Stranger things have happened. I'm just not betting on it. I think the odds of cooperation post-bombing are better with Syria.

I don't think force is off the table, either. There's things Iran could do that would invite bombing.

We should probably consider support to anti-regime elements inside Iran, at least loud moral support as Reagan did for the people behind the Berlin Wall. The government of Iran is not the only force that can be emboldened by what we say and do. The anti-regime movement is large, and those I have spoken to in that movement say loud moral support from America would help rather than hurt. This lines up very well with our values of preferring not-war to war and supporting human rights and democracy.

I agree. If nothing else, it always helps when you want cooperation to have some leverage, meaning something that upsets the other guy that needs stopping.

Glasnost: How would nukes embolden Iran?

Why hasn't Iran simply invaded Iraq and annexed it? Because overt military action against this weakened state would draw massive reprisal from America, likely in the form of an absolute invasion. Such an act would certainly topple the Mullahs and usher in a democratic government, as there's a large push for this.

That's why you see this cat-n-mouse game going on in Iraq right now, with enough moves from Iran to show it's power, but always backing off before they push America too far. In other words, Iran DOES fear an attack, and rightfully so.

Give Iran nukes. Suddenly, you can invoke MAD doctrine. Iran invades Iraq directly. America threatens to retaliate with a counter invasion. Iran declares that if its sovereign soil is damaged, if the Mullahs are in danger of being toppled (ie, they have nothing left to lose), Israel is glass. What would happen?

America would back off of a full invasion scheme and fight a limited war. You'd be in a sort of Vietnam mode, where America can defend, but never attack. It's REALLY hard to win a war that way.

This is just an example, but basically, nukes allow Iran to wrap a suicide bomb belt around the middle east, ensuring its survival, as any attempt to attack it results in the total destruction of SOMETHING, and that thought TERRIFIES western nations (who, you know, value life). For the same reason, North Korea wants nukes: Nukes ensure the survival of a nation. No, Iran isn't going to use its nukes right off the bat, but if its survival is on the line... why not? Sure, America will nuke it back, but by that point, the Mullahs are beyond caring.

And if you can engage in warfare while under this sort of blanket protection, you can justify draconian measures and, maybe, unify your nation under militaristic nationalism. And all of this would CERTAINLY destabilize the middle east.

There's your mechanism.

I happen to agree with you, though. I don't think military action will solve this. If we had the will to invade, we would have done so. The political capital just isn't there. We might be able to bomb some of their nuclear development sights, but that's about it.

The answer, I think lies in finding some method, any method, to delay them from getting their nukes, and pushing for the rise of democracy there. I don't know enough to suggest a specific course of action, and I happen to think invasion WOULD work. But we're not going to, so we have to think of something else.

Glasnost: If nothing else, it always helps when you want cooperation to have some leverage, meaning something that upsets the other guy that needs stopping.

True, but I would oppose stopping the support for democrats and dissidents in Iran because a deal was struck with their persecutors. Kissinger did that to the Kurds in the 1970s and they were horribly massacred afterwards.

I hear the phrase "Kissinger Betrayal" every single day in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Realpolitik is a nasty business.

First, US foreign aid should be going to Arab companies, trying to help them create stronger middle classes. Palestinians, Arabs, Turks, Persians.

Part of Iranian solution should start in Turkey -- autonomy for the Kurds. No Turkish Empire in the EU, let the Kurds vote to stay with Turkey or some other arrangement.
I'd guess the Turkish Kurds go for independence.
The US failure to support democracy, freedom, and independence (if democratically chosen) of the Turkish Kurds is a) understandable because of the need to keep Turkey an "ally", but b) inconsistent with support for ME democracy and freedom. We need more (b), even if we have few gov't allies.

The arbitrary post-Ottoman WW I state boundaries, almost set in concrete after WW II, are a huge problem and the goal of keeping those boundaries is what makes the goal of peace improbable/ impossible.

Tribal cantons should have been the US goal in Iraq, and in Lebanon, Gaza, West Bank, and Iran --small "tribal-nation states".

The forcible regime change in Iran will most likely include both US bombing, and the new Iraq Army ally, after recently ending the AQ terrorism (mostly), and establishing a secular Sunni and mostly secular Shia Iraqi Arab alliance for Baghdad. This Arab alliance, trained and supplied by US, will have become the best Arab fighting force ever in history. At some point, Arab politicians in Iraq will be blaming terrorism on Iran, not on the Americans.

When Iran becomes both the real Iraqi enemy that it is, as well as the perceived enemy by the people, Iraqi "unity" will be enhanced by opposition to the Iranian enemy.

The Iranians are betting that they get a nuke before any democratic Iraq unite against them -- nukes are pretty good insurance against invasions.

But Noah, despite Pakistan not yet allowing its nukes into the hands of terrorists, I flatly do not believe that Israel would avoid being at 1 in 10 risk of being nuked (within 5 years of Iran having the bomb). This is far, far higher risk than getting totally drunk (bombed!) and joy-driving for some 10-20 miles on a freeway.
Yes, 90% not-bombed means it is "unlikely", but unless you're willing to quantify the likelihood, your and glasnost dismissal of that risk is the usual blah blah.

Everyone here thinks it would be a great idea if the Iranian people overthrew their regime and spared us the trouble. I think it's a great idea too. Just one problem - there's no sign that this is going to happen.

We thought a few years ago under Khatami that Iran was "libealizing". Instead they went right in the other direction and elected Ahmedinejad. And when did it happen? Right after we did Iran a big favor by getting rid of their worst enemy. This gives the lie to the claim made by glasnost and others that (paraphrasing) "oh we shouldn't be too hard on Iran, it will turn their people against us".

I'm not saying we should bomb Iran tomorrow. But we are far better off if the bloody psychos who rule there are living in fear that we might do so rather than thinking they can game us because they know we won't. Any sign of moderation or compromise only emboldens their worst tendencies.

Case in point, not exactly OT to this blog: the recent trip by Pelosi et al to Damascus was followed by a crackdown on Syrian dissidents. People are now in jail and probably being tortured thanks to the idiotic idea "we should be talking to them". You talk to them only after you've put the fear of G-d into them.

Michael's comments raise the fundamental problem: to paraphrase Lenin, what is to be done?

The only way I can see to prevent Iran from opening up the genie bottle of nuclear weapons is to do the least worst of alternatives: true boycott.

Let's look, briefly at the alternatives:

1) Nuke 'em now. 12-14 tactile nukes. Upside: Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons is set back 50 years. Downside: whoever does it becomes political punching bag for the next 50 years. Mullahs rule forever, unless you target them as well.

2) Conventional attack. See above, Iranian capability set back 5 years. Rest applies.

3) Do nothing. Upside: Very popular, support of countries doing trade with Iran (Germany, France, China, Russia), love and kisses from the Iranians (especially if you go public and say you won't do anything). Downside: the dead in Israel, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt when Iran runs the next proxy war and detonates a nuke in Tel Aviv (smuggled in via slow tramp steamer). Mullahs continue to rule.

4) Usual UN boycott. Upside: very popular, expensive politically (buying off China and Russia) but low-impact on death and dying. Downside: like Iran would pay attention? See scenario 3 for further downsides. Mullahs continue to rule.

5) Full UN boycott. This hasn't ever been done, nor are there any real mechanisms in place. The idea is that you cut the country off entirely: no trade whatsoever, no telephone, no internet, nothing leaves the border. Zip, nada. No flights, no gasoline deliveries, no food, no drugs, no nothing. No people either: stuck in transit? Too bad. Upside: Iran as a functioning state lasts around 2 weeks, mullahs lynched at the end of the day so that average Iranians can get subsidized bread and gasoline (which are subsidized from oil exports), nuke program abandoned. Downside: dead from lack of medication, food with accompanying political fallout; possibility that the mullahs will survive, major political payoffs (EU, China, Russia, i.e. Iranian trading partners).

All of these options suck. The Iranian government is very clever at making this as unpalatable as possible: if anything, it's their hobby to make choices as unpleasant as possible for us (given their passive-aggressive victimhood stance, unsurprising).

And that's Michael's point: he's basically saying that we've got a shit sandwich and we're all gonna have to take a big bite so we can get rid of the damn thing.

In any case, regardless of what decisions are made, there will be two constants: whatever the US decides to do, it will be derided as being wrong, and whatever Israel does will also be derided as being wrong.

That's what makes scenario 1 and 2 attractive to some, since it won't make a difference what is done to the chattering idiots. Me, as you might think (I'm an economist: I know how vulnerable countries are to complete blockades), I like option 5.

The problem is that options 3 and 4 would be chosen by the vast majority, as the downside is pushed out to an indeterminate future, while the chattering idiots can feel really, really good about how concerned they are. Doesn't change anything, you know, but boy are are our hearts in the right place!

Wow, what a Freudian slip.

TACTICAL, not tactile nukes. Let's not even get started on what that might mean...

Two other points to the downside of Iran getting the bomb: the very thought is already inspiring Arab states to seek reactors and their own nuclear programs.

Secondly, the non-state players in the region are already very powerful, very radical and unpredictable. The possibility of a dirty bomb or other deadly WMD getting into their hands increases exponentially as soon as reactors start sprouting all over the Middle East.

As it is Pakistan's fragile condition is cause for concern: what happens to their nuclear weapons if Musharraf falls, if the radical religious elements gain control?

Finally, Iran has specifically threatened to use nukes on Israel and I don't think that can be ignored. The rhetoric is too consistent, as pointed out above, with a toxic and dangerous world-view that apparently considers Israel (and the US) literal emanations of Satan. I don't think they're playing - unless the whole mullah routine is an act - which I doubt - look at their art - I think the leaders are sincere (though not necessarily - probably not - most of the people -?) If it's "propaganda" it nevertheless has a disturbing and all-too-familiar ring to it.

Didn't Europe think Hitler was kidding too, or just using cool graphics, big parades and Nordic mythology to improve morale and look impressive - or worse - didn't they admire him?

There was one comment above - Microraptor I think, suggested that America should warm to Iran and back off Israel. I don't think that's a good idea. First place, isn't it better think in terms of "both/and" rather than "either/or"?

And, if Iran had different leaders, obviously there's no reason not to seek an alliance. But I don't see how you can "back off Israel a little," especially under the circumstances. Of course many say that the whole Muslim world would love America if only we'd abandon Israel.

In fact, apart from the sheer cruelty of that suggestion, given the real proportions of Israel (tiny) vs. the Muslim world (vast), Jews (14 million and constantly threatened) vs Muslims (1.4 billion), it's America's waffling that confuses people and leads to trouble.

One minute you have the idealist Bush speech, the next minute James Baker the so-called realist, then Nancy's off to Syria in the scarf, and Syrian dissidents are thrown in jail. And there are people who remember 1973 too, when Nixon and the Brits let Israel bleed and bleed - deliberately - before finally the US resupplied her.

It's betrayal. People see it and they fear and hate us for it. We need consistent, honorable policies - not the expedient, dirty gamesmanship that has created so much heartache.

People aren't pawns.

"in 1948, 1956, 1967, and 1973. Even though some of the Arab countries were allied with the Soviet Union, Israel repulsed the invaders, and in the latter two wars even captured territory from the attacking armies."

It is Ironic to see Israel in the same position that Egypt once was when Israel got the nuclear bomb. In 1967, the Egyptian army amassed at the Israeli border not to invade the country but to attack the Israeli nuclear facilities that were about 10 kms away from that border. Israel lauched a pre-emptive strike on Egyptian forces and defeated them. The tables have now turned but with Israel and Iran.

Crush: the Egyptian army amassed at the Israeli border not to invade the country but to attack the Israeli nuclear facilities that were about 10 kms away from that border.

Where did you read that?

"In 1967, the Egyptian army amassed at the Israeli border not to invade the country"

No Arab country would ever want to invade Israel. It is good of you to rule out that possibility.

"but to attack the Israeli nuclear facilities that were about 10 kms away from that border."

It is well known that Israel has a nuclear weapons program and has had the program since 1967. The exact location of their installations is also known.

"Israel lauched a pre-emptive strike on Egyptian forces and defeated them. The tables have now turned but with Israel and Iran."

You are seeing an Israeli army amass at Iran's border too?

I have seen the reverse timeline world many Arab nationalists live in, but your planet seems even more interesting!

Western acquiescence to a nuclear Iran would do perhaps more than anything else to throw the Middle East into chaos. It would shatter the balance of power that has governed the region, however shakily, for nearly forty years. Second-tier powers, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, would be sent scrambling for their own nuclear weapons and new alliances, and the United States would almost certainly be forced from the region

Noah, you need to think this through a little more. How are countries as disfunctional as Egypt, SA and Jordan going develop their own nuclear weapons? With whom could they ally to protect them from Iran? Only the US is in a position to protect these countries from an agressive Iran. Arguably a nuclear Iran could be a boon to both the US and Israel. There is no love lost between Sunnis and Shiites, or Arabs and Persians. If the Sunni Arab states were convinced that Iran was actually capable of dominating the Middle East you would see quite a shift in their attitude toward Israel. Far from forcing us from the region, a nuclear Iran would create a situation where the Saudis would be begging us to stay. If the Americans were more clever and more cynical, along the lines of the 19th century Brits, they would be doing anything possible to encourage a deeper Sunni-Shiite split.

This may sound stupid but: Can you imagine the Christian Putin and the pragmatic-Budhist China permitting a nuclear armed Iran in their "disputed" borders?

"If the Sunni Arab states were convinced that Iran was actually capable of dominating the Middle East you would see quite a shift in their attitude toward Israel. Far from forcing us from the region, a nuclear Iran would create a situation where the Saudis would be begging us (Israel) to stay."

I often think exactly this way as opposed to alternatives.

The only one thing, which bothers me - nukes in hands of Iran's proxies, which can be smuggled in to Israel or US and set off.

"Can you imagine the Christian Putin and the pragmatic-Budhist China permitting a nuclear armed Iran in their "disputed" borders?"

Easily. Those guys have territories and lives to spare and have no scruples. History proved it many times. Just remember how Soviet government treated its citizens from very beginning and how Chernobyl catastrophe was handled.

Personally I have a hard time imagining Putin as a "Christian." I suppose in the cultural sense he is, the same way that Jaques Chirac, Silvio Berlusconi and Lindsay Lohan are "christian", but you'll never convince me Putin is a sincere believer. I think Leo is right that it is easy to imagine a situation where Russia could see a nuclear Iran as actually being in its interests, and an excuse for Russia to gain more influence in the Gulf. I don't think Iran would ever knowingly give Hizbullah a nuke - I'm sure the Mullahs want that monopoly for themselves.

Trackbacked by The Thunder Run - Web Reconnaissance for 06/05/2007
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention.

(I read some place that Putin, the KGB man, was raised by his mother as a Christian Othodox and "confessed" often to the Patriarch.
When I talk about nukes+Putin+China, I mean tactically, diplomatically, strategically, etc.,etc. to have a nuke power so close to their borders?mmmmmmmm.........I know that people are fodder cannon.....

vanya,

the us is currently losing its power for all sorts of reasons, including disastruous domestic and foreign policies, of which iraq is but one (see several books on this, including nemesis by chalmers johnson). it is this weakness that prompted iran to pound -- it wouldn't have done had the the weakness not become visible.

if it gets the nukes and, as I expect, the us will one way or another get out of iraq, the so-called us allies will not have any other serious power to support them, which is the precise iranian objective, and they will have to acknowledge iran's status as the power in the region, with all the drawbacks from that. if you wanna have an indicator of this, check out egypt's renewing diplomatic relations with iran.

that's mjt's point, me reckons, and it is correct.

will russia and/or china try to insert themselves into the ME? I dk. china may due to its energy needs. but i don't think iran will fool around with them and i don't think they can and will offer us allies an alternative pax of their own.

mjt,

the argument that nasser did not really want war has been made. in fact it was also said that he did it for PR and was thrown off by u-thant acceding to his request to take the UN out, which he did not think the idiot would.

having read oren's history of the war and other sources, i can't say i am persuaded. if that argument is true, then nasser was a complete idiot not to realize how that would be interpreted in israel.

indeed, i just read an analysis of the israeli decision making process to go to war, and the IDF generals were on the verge to start the war without the govt's decision, for they were sure that if they did not preempt, israel would be doomed.

crush,

what is your source for that?

had they attacked, they would have attacked the facility too, sure. but all the credible sources document the intent to annihilate.

gary,

the only reason iran is behaving so defiantly is precisely because they understand the fissures in the west and that they can get away with it (just as hitler did in his time).

the opposite is not true: the west is divided, unwilling to stand up for its civilization, and does not exploit the fissures in the islamist world.

when the west refers a matter to UN it is a statement that says: we're not gonna do much about it. at least not anything that should cause you real concern.

mjt,

states act in their own interest, not to protect democratic rights. if a state does the latter and all the other don't, it will find itself in serious trouble.

consider 2 presidents who tried that: carter and bush. the first ended up cuddling up with the worst tyrants and the latter ended up in appeasing them.

i'm not saying that we should not support democracy, but we should do it smartly to advance our interests, and not substitute the latter for the former. because it usually ends up nasty.

Vanya: Personally I have a hard time imagining Putin as a "Christian."

Yeah.

from wikipedia:
...........Putin's father was "a model communist, genuinely believing in its ideals while trying to put them into practice in his own life"26. With this dedication he became secretary of the Party cell in his workshop and then after taking night classes joined the factory’s Party buro.26 Though his father was a "militant atheist"27, Putin's mother "was a devoted Orthodox believer".26 Though she kept no icons in the home, she attended church regularly (despite the government's persecution of the Russian Orthodox Church at the time). She ensured that Putin was secretly christened as a baby, and regularly took him to services.26 His father knew of her activities but turned a blind eye.26 Putin himself is a practicing member of the Russian Orthodox Church. His religious awakening followed the serious car crash of his wife in 1993, and deepened by a life-threatening fire that burned down their dacha in August 1996.27[28] Right before an official visit to Israel his mother gave him his baptismal cross telling him to get it blessed “I did as she said and then put the cross around my neck. I have never taken it off since.”26

Putin has been hailed by Patriarch Alexius II of the Russian Orthodox Church as instrumental to healing the 80-year schism between it and the ROCOR in May 2007.29, etc,etc.........

given the indoctrination the KGB was subject to and the kind of character one had to have to work there, the notion that looking into his eyes you can see his soul -- should one laugh or cry?

electing such a person as a president of a country with very little democratic culture yields exactly what it did and nobody should be surprised.

Sorry to spoil the party guys, but I just don't see how you can so easily discount the fact that Iran (or, more likely one of it's proxies) would actually use a nuclear weapon should they acquire one.

Of course, it may not be a rational thing for them to do, but neither is inviting neo-Nazis to Holocaust denial conferences, repeatedly threatening Israel with destruction, capturing British sailors, imprisoning American grandmothers or blowing embassies in South America.

Moreover, an ideology that exalts suicide bombing is hardly one that is going to be deterred by the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction.

It's not that I disagree with this analysis, I just think it's much too complex. All you need to know is that Iran is doing very bad things right now, and it'll get a whole lot worse when they have nuclear weapons. Existentially worse for Israel and most countries in the the Middle East. Not quite that bad for the US, but bad enough.

oh, it is VERY bad for the US. you have no idea how bad. but certainly not as bad as extermination is for israel.

Unfortunately this conversation will go on and on for years in one form or another, until declining world reliance on oil makes countries like Iran irrelevant. What will happen first: The Iranian people overthrow the Mullahs or the rest of us no longer need much Iranian oil?

I wish I knew.

gene,

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/clusterfuck_nation/2007/06/no_confidence.html

islamists can adjust to poverty (check out obl's living conditions), but can the west? sufficiently to beat the islamists? i doubt it.
check out the bases and embassy in iraq.

apropos nasser intentions:

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1180960609020&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

For those who worry that Iran having nuclear weapons would cause the Saudis to try to build them as well: what makes you thing they don't already have them?

I offer this small factoid: In the late 1960s and 1970s, my cousin was an ex-pat working in Saudi Arabia. Which might be unexceptional, but his degree is in Nuclear Engineering. I haven't actually asked him what he was doing all those years. And of course, lots of engineers go on to work in fields other than what their degree is in. But in the mid-80s he was back in the US and working with nuclear reactors.

"Not to nit-pick, but Israel captured territory from the Arabs in all of those wars."

Not tryna be a nit-pick either, but in 1945, Israel invaded Arab Land from outside countries, not captured it.
And 1967 was a pre-emptive war set off by Israel.

"given the indoctrination the KGB was subject to and the kind of character one had to have to work there, the notion that looking into his eyes you can see his soul -- should one laugh or cry?"

Higher echelons of KGB (as Putin was) could not afford to be indoctrinated. They had to be smarter than that or die (as organization).

Of cause it does not mean they weren't indoctrinated when they were little screws and did not have some residue left in them but it would be minuscule.

And I agree, Putin's behavior is not a surprise. But also I do not see it as cause for concern.

This people are no longer building Socialism and are no longer ideological enemies to the West.

Of cause Russian nationalism is not dead and desire to be who they once were is alive in very last drunk laying unconscious on the street.

But they are also changing. They are more westernized now and much less susceptible to indoctrination against us.

Unfortunately we will have to wait until at least last 'socialist/communist' generation will die out before we all get on par.

I often think what is wrong with Russia becoming member of NATO. How ironic.

that's right gharam, israel should have sat there and wait to be annihilated rather than preempt. how dared they respond to a clear provocation and the odds the way they were? that preemption saved the country.

have you ever read the history of the decision to preempt and how long the israeli govt waited and tried to get nasser to back off? or any history of the war other than myth and propaganda?

what the hell does "outside countries" mean?

there was nobody in the USSR who was not indoctrinated (except perhaps at the margins) and nobody could get to high KGB echelons without being indoctrinated first. that did not mean that they lost their brains entirely. it's possible some faked it to get there being opportunists, but it would have been difficult to survive.

but even without indoctrination, think of the character of somebody doing what they did -- would you trust them with power in a democracy?

russia is not a danger in military terms, but rather as countering the west. it has a serious demographic problem and a southern border chockful of muslims and my bet is that it is trying to make sure they don't become restless, particularly due to chechnya.

I think the best solution with the Iranians is to create proxy war witht them, just like they did with Hezbollah against Israel. Finance the Kurds, make Iraq give the Kurds a country, force them into it if they don't like it, afterall the meaning of 'power' is to make someone or a group of people do something that you wish - even if its against their own will.

As for Turkish Kurds, tell Turkey they can't join the EU until they resettle the Kurds in their own territory, which will be the Turkish Turkistan area. When you have a Kurd country, who are pro-western more than even Israel, finance them ten times more than Israel, take Israeli soldiers to Kurdistan and let them train their military, as well as buy them military arms, aircraft, etc.

Iran has got to meddle with the Kurds, then the Kurds could invade, while the UN can shut up because they normally both favour the Kurds and Iran, this time when they collide, they UN is left there itching it's head on what to do or say next, by the time it decides, everything will be over so no problem.

The west can't be condemned, because afterall it is helping deprived people without a state into creating one, just like the Jews, after years of opression by Arabs and so on. The military help from America will be unrivalled by Iran.

If Iran attacks kurds and kills many, then the Iranian kurds, making up at least 10% of Iran, will act, destabilising the region and calling for their own state. Sectarian and ethnic tentions will stir in the country, leading to it becoming weakened and therefore humiliated, occupied and so on.

Hezbollah will become undermined, then a western Invasion could follow of Syria. Hezbollah will by itself become non-existant in no more than 5 years.

Thats your problems solved. Theres no more Syria to send terrorists, or Iran to train and finance them.

and you really believe that this is feasible and the US will do it? and that it will achieve the objectives?

Graham, in 1945 the state of Israel did not exist, let alone "invade Arab land from outside countries".

"that's right gharam, israel should have sat "there and wait to be annihilated rather than preempt. how dared they respond to a clear provocation and the odds the way they were? that preemption saved the country.

have you ever read the history of the decision to preempt and how long the israeli govt waited and tried to get nasser to back off? or any history of the war other than myth and propaganda?"

Did I say anything against it? I just corrected the guy, I didn't attack Israel for starting a pre-emptive war - war is war however it starts and ends, a country has to win - I don't give a shit how.

Maybe you understood me wrong, but you know, I was just saying what was true.

gharam,

i did misunderstand. sorry.

oops, now reading sophia i did misunderstand, but in a different way. i was thinking 67 not 45.

pre-1948 reality is the least known and worst abused by the arab propaganda that a gullible west has swallowed.

i highly recommend the following:

http://www.theaugeanstables.com/2007/06/01/palestinian-memory-killing-the-future-with-a-dishonest-past/#comments

and efraim karsh.

i urge everybody to read this for a doze of reality and how the world has gone to the dogs.

http://bookwormroom.wordpress.com/2007/06/04/the-six-day-war-in-real-time/

think the best solution with the Iranians is to create proxy war witht them, just like they did with Hezbollah against Israel.

That approach got a trial run in Somalia. The proxy was Ethiopia, the target was the Islamic Courts Union.

While the situation is still not resolved- you don't put down an insurgency in a few months- the Islamic Courts Union has been run out of Mogadishu and the US media seems to be utterly oblivious about the implications.

I hear the USN bagged a bunch of interesting people trying to get out of Mogadishu by boat, does anyone have any details on that?

are you equating iran with the islamic courts?

mark,

but of course. those who make those kinds of arguments have no clue what islamo-fascists will do with nukes without even using them.

israel is not only a thorn in their islamist side (the joos), but an enemy that all fascists must invent to justify their dictatorship, and it's about the only thing to use to distract the sunni arabs from their being shia.

Not sure what you mean by 'equating'. I am pointing at Somalia as a recent example of the US using a proxy.

The problem is that I think it is very unclear as to if this approach would be effective against Iran. Somalia was a failed state, much like post-soviet-withdrawal Afghanistan, with numerous local tribal warlords fighting over the scraps.

Iran is a government that has an effective internal security service and has been fairly stable for two decades. IMO, it's going to take more than harassment via proxy to make it collapse.

which is exactly what i meant by my question.

you pointed out to an example which did not fit the case at hand.

my impression is that there is a lot of bluffing in what the iranians say. my sense is that if the west had the balls to show themselves as ruthless, they could probably get the iranians to retreat.

the problem is less iran per se as the pathetic behavior of the west, which is what the iranians exploit.

if it were up to me i would withhold any protection from the europeans and let them protect themselves. they would probably get islamized via self-destruction and good riddance.
their useless and cause only damage.

my impression is that there is a lot of bluffing in what the iranians say. my sense is that if the west had the balls to show themselves as ruthless, they could probably get the iranians to retreat.

the problem is less iran per se as the pathetic behavior of the west, which is what the iranians exploit.

if it were up to me i would withhold any protection from the europeans and let them protect themselves. they would probably get islamized via self-destruction and good riddance.
their useless and cause only damage.

you pointed out to an example which did not fit the case at hand.

[shrug]

There is enough variety on this planet that finding a perfect match is impossible. As a practical matter, it is also undesirable, because following a previous plan exactly would give the opposition a way to anticipate what you will do if they recognized what was going on.

[...]

my sense is that if the west had the balls to show themselves as ruthless, they could probably get the iranians to retreat.

I concur.

the problem is less iran per se as the pathetic behavior of the west, which is what the iranians exploit.

Correct. The US has spent the last quarter-century teaching middle easter governments in general, and Iran in particular, that they could do as they please and nothing worse than a diplomatic protest would come of it.

That needs to end. Soon.

if it were up to me i would withhold any protection from the europeans and let them protect themselves. they would probably get islamized via self-destruction and good riddance.
their useless and cause only damage.

I see no benefit to the US in abandoning Europe.

While I do wish they were better able to take care of their own security matters, I cannot help but remember that back when the Europeans had real militaries, every so often they were overcome with the urge to use them, usually on each other.

The current situation is less than ideal, but it is much better than the alternative.

we're not talking perfect match, only sensible. there may not be one, but somalia wasn't sensible.

well my guess is that if they were left to their own devices they would not do "whatever they want". they did that because they were protected, so that could even screw the us while under its protection.

it won't end, it'll get worse.

there is plenty between abandoning and relieving them completely from all responsibility. and if they take no responsibility and fight among themselves instead of the islamists, they deserve what they'll get.

with their self-destruction in the face of islamization they're becoming increasingly a liability.

In 1967 Israel and Egypt were already at war, before the air strike on Egyptian airfields. The closing of the Gulf of Aqaba by the Egyptians was an act of war. International law is absolutely clear on this.

This is not counting the fact that Egypt (and other Arab countries) considered themselves to be in a permanent state of war with Israel; their view was that they were at war with Israel, but Israel wasn't allowed to be at war with them.

typical of arabs, wouldn't you say?

Noah--

As an ardent Zionist, I think it is important that we support our cause with truth, not lies (or what may be in your case willful ignorance). Raimondo is an idiot yes, but you should attack him with facts, not lies. You apparently know nothing of the Middle East. Example: 1956 War, you apparently know nothing about it and lump it in with the Arabs' Wars of Aggression in 1948, 67 and 73. This mistake exposes you to criticism and would lead one to discount the fact that the three wars I just mentioned were in fact wars of aggresion by Arabs, while the 1956 war was not. Stop lying -- Israel was not attacked by any coalition of Arab states in 1956 as you implied, it was not even attacked by one Arab state. Rather, it joined a conspiracy with Britain and France to overthrow the Egyptian regime and invaded the Sinai. Moreover, it DID gain territory in that war -- the Sinai Desert. It had to give it back because Eisenhower made it, but it got great concessions for doing so, specifically guarantees of shipping in the Straits and a demilitarized Sinai. Egypt's violation of those conditions led to the 67 war. So, again, stop lying and get your facts straight. Even those of us who love Israel admit that sometimes it was the aggressor.

Noah--

As an ardent Zionist, I think it is important that we support our cause with truth, not lies (or what may be in your case willful ignorance). Raimondo is an idiot yes, but you should attack him with facts, not lies. You apparently know nothing of the Middle East. Example: 1956 War, you apparently know nothing about it and lump it in with the Arabs' Wars of Aggression in 1948, 67 and 73. This mistake exposes you to criticism and would lead one to discount the fact that the three wars I just mentioned were in fact wars of aggresion by Arabs, while the 1956 war was not. Stop lying -- Israel was not attacked by any coalition of Arab states in 1956 as you implied, it was not even attacked by one Arab state. Rather, it joined a conspiracy with Britain and France to overthrow the Egyptian regime and invaded the Sinai. Moreover, it DID gain territory in that war -- the Sinai Desert. It had to give it back because Eisenhower made it, but it got great concessions for doing so, specifically guarantees of shipping in the Straits and a demilitarized Sinai. Egypt's violation of those conditions led to the 67 war. So, again, stop lying and get your facts straight. Even those of us who love Israel admit that sometimes it was the aggressor.

Honest Zionist: You apparently know nothing of the Middle East. Example: 1956 War, you apparently know nothing about it and lump it in with the Arabs' Wars of Aggression in 1948, 67 and 73. This mistake exposes you to criticism and would lead one to discount the fact that the three wars I just mentioned were in fact wars of aggresion by Arabs, while the 1956 war was not. Stop lying -- Israel was not attacked by any coalition of Arab states in 1956 as you implied

Well now.

First of all, if you're going to charge that the 1956 war was started by Israel, then certainly you have to also maintain that the Six Day War was as well -- which technically -- very technically -- speaking was started by Israel insofar as Israel fired the first shot (never mind all the Arab armies massing on its border preparing to invade).

The '56 war was precipitated by Egypt's nationalization of the Suez Canal, and it was a war that primarily France and secondarily Britain, the fading colonial powers, were involved in instigating and executing every bit as much as Israel was. The Suez War was in fact a French idea, and France invited Israel into secret negotiations to convince Israel to participate in its plan to, among other things, strike a blow against Nasser (who France, given Nasser's support for the Algerian uprising, was unhappy with). The Sevres agreement was born, named for the Paris suburb in which the meetings took place between France, Israel, and Britain.

Beyond Egypt's nationalization of the Suez Canal, there were other factors that led to the '56 war. The armistice agreements that Israel signed in 1948 and 1949 were not peace treaties: Egypt, just to name one country, maintained that an official state of war held with Israel, and in fact in the years preceding the '56 war Egyptian fedayeen units launched frequent terrorist attacks on Israel from Egyptian territory.

So actually, it strikes me as rather obvious that there is one person who is pretty well clueless on what the 1956 war was about, and that person is not me. Have fun with your "honest" Zionism -- although that moniker strikes me as a bit preposterous, being that honestly usually involves some kind of respect for the historical truth.

Noah, my post specifically noted the circumstances you pointed out (and you left out of your quote of my post). Indeed, you admit what I was saying -- that Israel was not attacked in 56 unlike in 48, 67, 73. It is clear you have no idea what you are talking about. You are a blight on the cause eem kol hastooyot atah omer, hayvanta?

Noah, thanks for mostly answering H.Zionist.
I'd score this as 2 for Noah, 1 for HZ.

I don't think a sovereign country nationalizing an asset is considered war-starting aggression (even if Putin does it soon to BP, for instance). So HZ gets a big point.

The fact that Egypt was still "at war" should be more publicized by all Israelis, to specifically counter the silly "peace now" folk who think not-fighting today means peace. +1 Noah

HZ, calling Noah a liar seems trollish. -1 = +1 Noah.

I'd be surprised if Michael mentioned anything here ... except maybe that Noah is doing great, and HZ is on the verge of being excessive in insults. Despite a good point on the 56 war.

I don't think a sovereign country nationalizing an asset is considered war-starting aggression (even if Putin does it soon to BP, for instance).

It can be if the other country wants it to be.

IMO, the Suez crisis was a good deal more complex than either side is making it out to be (free clue: the British Empire was still a going concern in those days- there was a lot more to Suez than Israelis vs Arabs), but Noah is a great deal closer to reality than "HonestZionist".

Thought exercise: the guy running Panama in the 1950s nationalizes the Canal Zone. What would be an appropriate American response? Keep in mind the recent lessons on the importance of naval power.

Listen kids, that means you to Michael. The invasion of Iraq made the case for Iran to arm itself with nuclear weapons.

Ahmadinejad is just the latest monster in the neocon closet. An atomic Iran is a nationalist goal, not just his.

It is also a goal of an emerging China and a paranoid Russia.

An attack on Iran would have to be an "armed inspection." Massive airborne drops to seize, confirm and destroy nuclear facilities.

Our intel on Iran is worse than our intel was on Iraq. Also we don't have the man-power for such an operation.

Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan would be crippled beyond current capacities.

Any attack on Irans nuclear facilities would slow but not stop a nuclear Iran. It would expand the war from Iraq into Iran and vise-versa times ten.

A war that we are logisticaly unable to handle.

This would cause us to lose in Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan.

Question, are you a double agent Michael, or just a garden variety ding-dong.

The situation is bigger than the sandbox you describe in your post.

Crush: the Egyptian army amassed at the Israeli border not to invade the country but to attack the Israeli nuclear facilities that were about 10 kms away from that border.

I heard it on RFI Radio France International

Raimondo is just an old fashioned anti-semite of the Coughlin-Lindbergh variety. He would like nothing more than Iran to nuke Israel. His previous column in USA Today claimed that Jews were leading the US to war in Iraq and Iran, and we are seeing more of the same. He feels that if there were no Jews, the world would be at peace

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転職
ホスト
外国為替
toefl
マンスリー　東京
医師　募集
看護師　求人
カラコン
カード決済
クレジットカード決済
水虫
除菌
格安国内航空券
自動車教習所 東京
アトピー
アロママッサージ
六本木マッサージ
ジュエリー通販
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ペット　宿
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Montreal Auditions
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Chicago Auditions
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musician jobs
dance auditions
Chicago Auditions
Houston Auditions
Philadelphia Auditions
San Antonio Auditions
San Diego Auditions
Seattle Auditions
Montreal Auditions
Montreal Auditions
Ottawa Auditions
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競馬　予想
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新築マンション
合宿免許
人材派遣
東京都　墓地
派遣会社
人材派遣
パチンコ　攻略
おなら

翻译公司
翻译公司
机票
性病
性病
尖锐湿疣
尖锐湿疣
蜗轮减速机
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丝杆升降机
租房
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北京租房
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搬家公司
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上海机票
上海机票
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搬家公司
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代孕
试管婴儿
捐卵
代孕
试管婴儿
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捐卵
代孕
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