May 20, 2007

Street Clashes in Northern Lebanon

by Michael J. Totten

Syria's Bashar Assad ratchets up his war against Lebanon using the Palestinian terrorist organization Fatah Al Islam as his proxy to trigger the biggest street battles in the city of Tripoli since the civil war ended. Abu Kais explains.

UPDATE: Meanwhile, another car bomb exploded in the Achrafieh neighborhood of East Beirut and killed a 67 year-old woman.

UPDATE: If you want to know why Syria does what it does in Lebanon, read Tony Badran.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 01:37 PM
Comments

Sure that's the right group?

Fatah al-Islam is listed as an anti-Syrian Fatah splinter group.

Posted by: alphie at May 20, 2007 02:46 PM

Exactly what alphie said.
They aren't Syrian in any shape, form or kind, so stop blamming Syria for this bullshit. They have less interest in doing this than more. If it was Syria, it would embolden the anti-Syrians as it proves there point about the Syrians terrorising the lebanese for their agendas. It would also weaken all who are in support of Syrias role and stand.

This Fath-Al-Islam is a splinter cell from another Pro-Syrian group called, well, Fath. Fath is por-syrian and supports political decisions and only carries weapons in the refugee camps as a mean of a security force, as agreed in in 1967 (the Lebanese security forces are not allowed in rememeber).

This Fath al islam broke away from Fatah because they want the refugee camps to become independent, governed under Sharia law and then attack Israel. They are also fiercely pro-Alqaida. Their leader was once an assistant of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

All these factors are the right formulae for anyone to become the most hated by Syria. Syria is against islamism, against radicals, against Sharia Law, against the formulation of another independent state in Lebanon and against anyone attacking Israel from Lebanon except Hezbollah.

Fath al Islam broke away from Fatah not because they love the relationship with Syria, but to demolish it. Syria even closed all norther border cross-ins to prevent any re-inforcements flowing in to aid the terrorists.

This same group was the focus group of Seymour Hersh's report. He claimed that they were being given arms and financed by the US, Israel and the Lebanese government to draw Hezbollah into the confrontation with this group thus weakening it.

Hezbollah today refrained from making any comment on the events to refrain from being dragged in or being asked by the government for help. Mark my words, tomorrow Hezbollah will be severely condemned for not saying or doing anything.

Then when they are forced to comment, and obviously they will be against these terrorist acts, Hezbollah will then be forcefuly pushed into the confrontation witht these terrorists. The terrorists will then claim Hezbollah an enemy organisation and start targetting it and the rest of Lebanon. If Hezbollah does nothing, it will damage it's Image in Lebanon. If they do anything, they be drawn into the inter0fighting therefore becoming a fueling agent to this mini civil war. If they don't do anything, the Lebanese governemnt will ask Hizbollah for help. If Hezbollah denies, you can imagine the catastrophic results from such a decision.

The propaganda machines will then start hitting at Hezbollah claiming it doesn't truelly fight for Lebanese independence, serves only Iran and Syria, is anti-semitic because it only targets Israel and so on. BUT. If Hezbollah does join, then they will also be criticised for being participants and fuelling a civil war therefore people will rally against Hezbollah because they will then call this the bigger plot by Syria to make Lebanon into an arena of civil strife and bloodshed without realising Hezbollah will loose credibility either way and are the losers - them and Syria - both ways.

It is in no way in there interests to do anything like this. I believe it is something to do with the Israeli intelligence and Lebanese senior offcials, whom have done this many times before. They want Hezbollah to loose credibilit by not joining the fighting therefore the demand for there weapons to be abolished is easier. Or to join and become weakened for the next round with the Israelis. Therefore fighting in two front lines. One internal the other External.

All these factors do not serve Hezbollah, Iran or Syria, but the US, Israel and the betraying and illegitimate lebanese government.

I rest my case.

Posted by: Yo Yo at May 20, 2007 03:32 PM

Alphie: Fatah al-Islam is listed as an anti-Syrian Fatah splinter group.

Not according to the non-idiots of Lebanon, they aren't. Neither you nor Yo Yo have shown yourselves to be even remotely reliable (or in your case, knowledgable) on the subject of Lebanon and its politics.

Blaming Israel and the US for this clash is retarded.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 04:04 PM

I was wondering how long it would take before the zionist conspiracy theory emerged... oh, no, yo yo - you've done it faster than I ever could have imagined....

Posted by: mertel at May 20, 2007 04:07 PM

Abu Kais, Michael Young, and Tony Badran all put Fatah al Islam in the Syria camp, as do most Lebnanese analysts. Those three have an excellent analytical track record. Apologists and defenders of the Syrian regime think otherwise, but what can you expect of such people?

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 04:09 PM

Michael,

I never claimed to be an expert on Lebanon. I just looked up the group in the story and saw most sources listed them as anti-Syrian.

The whole Middle East is really quite a mystery.

A few days ago I came across this weird report:

http://tinyurl.com/2kzdjk

The U.S. and Israel are training Fatah fighters in Egypt and sending them into Gaza to battle Hamas, whom I thought were the democratically elected leaders.

Hardly something "honest brokers" would engage in.

Posted by: alphie at May 20, 2007 04:33 PM

Syria was supplying weapons to almost all groups in Lebanon in the 1970s and 1980s so they can direct "order" them to do their dirty work!

I was an eye witness when the "As-Sa3eqa" which was supposed to be a Palestinian group but almost all its members and weapons are from Syria was bombing Sabra and Shatila camp in 1977!

Syria assasinated several Lebanese politicians and military people when they refused to obey their orders. Now, Lebanon is free of Syrian control but Syria will not let this go unpunished! In addition to not allowing the international tribunal court to be approved under Chapter 7!

Posted by: Ghassan at May 20, 2007 04:48 PM

Ghassan i was reading what you said and started having some doubts about this. Then you said As-Sa3eqa is a Palistinian group doing the killing in Sabra and Chatilla. I dont know whats wrong with your eyes, but As-Sa3eqa and Al Sadem are both groups in the Lebanese Forces. Please go to an optician and see if theres something wrong with your witnessing eyes.

PS MJT, you know as well as I do that Syria is against fundamentalists and kills them for fun. There have been many incidents where Fath al Islam militants were arrested and/or killed on the lebanese border, they were also the ones stopped from ambushing the American Embassy.

Syria funding Al-Qaida is to me as absurd as America funding Al Qaida is to you.

Think about who has the most to gain over such an incident. You have already started attacking Syria as soon as this happens because three of your friends said they are Syrian. You have no friends from the 'other' side so I'm not surprised.

If you can read Hezbollahs report on the incident and try telling me it doesn't make sense.

Posted by: Yo Yo at May 20, 2007 04:57 PM

Ghassan: Resisting any Chapter 7 resolutions is not a shame, but a duty. To push for Chapter 7 resolutions is to acknowledge that a state is not present therefore not acknowledging the sovereignty and integrity of that state.

You march 14 people keep holding on to the state sovereignty bullshit therefore demanding Hezbollah weapons to rid of their weapons. At the same time you push for a Chapter 7 resolution which is only done so in a time of no state!

Also, to push for Chapter 7, like seniora did, is to ignore the opinions of half the country. Yes you are the majority in the Parliament, by 6 seats and thanks to the alliance with Hezbollah. But believe me the Lebanese who are against you by far outweigh the people with you - and the difference is not 6 people.

As i always say, the next election will shut alot of peoples mouths and will open mine very wide to laugh uncontrolably loud. When this governemnt came, nothing good or positive has been achieved. If you give me one SINGLE achievement I will give you a free vegetable blender. and PLZ dnt call today an achievement, we lost 22 of our brothers to 12 of the scums. Even scum bag terrorists kill more of our soldiers than our soldiers of them. Lebanon need a hell of alot of reform believe me. And now Saad harriri is talking about entering the refugee camp in big numbers - what the hell will that achieve, more and more misery and death to more people and families? If Israel is not capable of doing anything to hamas but loose one soldier whenever they enter the palisitinian territories, while the lebanese army looses 22 of its men in a single day on its own territory. Thats one dum decision maker.

As for you MJT, Hezbollah is now one of the only parties who are calling for a political exit to this, and are warning against any mis-adventures for the sake of Lebanons safety because they know damn well that 10 loose people can cause choas in Lebanon, how about these radicals who run into the hundreds.

Posted by: Yo Yo at May 20, 2007 05:06 PM

Yo Yo,

Michael Young, Tony Badran, and Abu Kais are my friends for a reason. It's not just because they make fine drinking companions. I met them in the first place because they are better and more intelligently informed about Lebanese politics than most people in the world.

I do have some friends (acquaintances is a better word) who support Hezbollah to one degree or another. But I do not and cannot take their analysis of Lebanese politics seriously. What I do learn from them is why people who are not Islamists support Hezbollah, and I factor that knowledge into my analysis of the organization.

Alphie,

I rather doubt the US is training Palestinian Fatah fighters, but I don't know for sure and could be wrong.

Anyway, no serious person should expect the US to be honest brokers with Hamas. The US can and should be an honest broker between Palestinians and Israelis who want to talk peace. As even you surely must know by now, Hamas's position on the subject is that peace negotiations with the Israelis is treason. Brokering between them and the Israelis isn't even an option. There is nothing to broker.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 05:08 PM

Yo Yo: they [Hezbollah] know damn well that 10 loose people can cause choas in Lebanon

Hezbollah and I finally agree about something.

Then again, Hezbollah itself is "loose," if you know what I mean. So my agreement with them sure has its limits.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 05:11 PM

Its funny you haven't included the attack by pro-harriris on the Baath Party offices in Lebanon as an update...how weird.

Posted by: LOL at May 20, 2007 05:11 PM

Call Hezbollah loose if it makes you feel better, but they are the most constrained and desciplined of all parties in Lebanon.

While your best friend mini-harriri is calling for an escalation to fuck up the country, Hezbollah is telling everyone to calm down and solve it politically - and it can be solved politically.

Posted by: Yo Yo at May 20, 2007 05:14 PM

LOL: Its funny you haven't included the attack by pro-harriris on the Baath Party offices in Lebanon as an update...how weird.

There is nothing weird about it. This is the first I've heard of it. Got a link for us?

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 05:16 PM

Yo Yo,
When you don't know what you're talking about, it's best to either get educated or shut up. Al-Sa3iqa was an active participant in the Lebanese Civil War (see Damour massacres), was Palestinian and was an arm of Syria's Baath. The last thing they were was Lebanese Forces.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/As_saiqa
Z.

Posted by: Z. at May 20, 2007 05:19 PM

Michael,

Call me crzy, but...

I think that when the U.S. supports democratic electons in a country, it should stand behind whomever gets elected.

I also think that if we want to complain about other countries backing groups in another country, we should not engage in the very same practice ourselves.

Posted by: alphie at May 20, 2007 05:24 PM

http://yalibnan.com/site/archives/2007/05/army_clash_with.php
Thats the link for you MJT. The article wasn't updated, but three people carrying firearms were later arrested for firing at the building.

As for Z., I never said As-Saiqa was LF, I said they were a branch IN LF.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_Forces
read the last paragraph under the article titled 'internal power struggles'

Thank you

Posted by: Yo Yo at May 20, 2007 05:35 PM

Has anyone done a tally of all the small skirmishes, wars, battles, riots etc. that are happening in the middle east and north africa? It seems every country in the whole region has major problems. Can someone tell me which of these countries are normal? Just wondering...

Posted by: Keith at May 20, 2007 05:36 PM

Hmmm, I wonder why the blog is still not updated about the incident?

Anyway it's minor. Keith, Dubai seems perfectly normal to me...

Posted by: Yo Yo at May 20, 2007 05:47 PM

Alphie: Call me crzy, but...I think that when the U.S. supports democratic electons in a country, it should stand behind whomever gets elected.

Okay, you're crzy.

If, say, a free Iraq elects Al Qaeda and builds a nuclear weapon and destoys New York and Washington, the US should not and would not "stand behind" it.

Extreme example, I know. I'm using it to make a point. We cannot stand by someone just because they were elected. It takes more than that.

In any case, it is not possible to broker peace talks between two parties when one of those parties says peace negotiations is treason. It's not our fault, that's just how it is. If you don't like it, don't argue with me. Argue with Hamas.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 05:50 PM

Yo Yo: Hmmm, I wonder why the blog is still not updated about the incident?

Three people threw rocks at the Baath Party office. So? The Baathists are lucky the Lebanese Army hasn't shelled it yet.

I'm in the middle of writing something else right now for a magazine. I'll add an update if something important happens.

In the meantime, is it okay if I'm in charge of the blog for a while? No one is stopping you from getting your own blog and adding the updates you see fit.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 05:56 PM

It isn't Hamas that doesn't talk to rivals, it's the US. They 'don't believe' in any negotiations with 'terrorists', just like they boycott Syrian and Iran - both of whom who want negotiations - and with Saddam in the past, and with Hamas and with Hezbollah.

Now you have the nerve to say it's Hamas that doesn't negotiate. You have Fatah killing them, hunting for them and dealing with Israel against them - the perfect agents + proxy - yet Hamas still negotiated with them, until Fatah brang in new recruits and started destroying Hamas' infrastructure and weapons.

As MJT, you might be WITH Fatah for doing that and I understand that, but i'm not interested in what you think is right and wrong or who is good and who is evil - im talking from the prespective of the normal Palistinian civilian who would like internal strife to be as far away from him/her as possible, something both Hamas and Fatah are not doing fully, I agree, but Fatah is breaking that desire to a much bigger extent than Hamas.

You have alot of learning to do MJT.

Posted by: Yo Yo at May 20, 2007 05:56 PM

alphie,

both israelis were idiotic and wishful thinkers and allowed hamas to participate in elections and got what they deserve.

now they can continue suicidal idiocy or try to correct the mistake, which is quite hard and they are too incompetent.

it's the us that trained fatah. israelis only permitted them to enter gaza.

israeli decisions are being now made by a bunch of idiots who have no popular standing, are confused and desperate and fuck everything up. the notion that if they prop up fatah it will win is stupidity of first order -- it'll never happen. what is more, any such help will doom fatah in the public's eyes.

there is a theory that hamas wanted to draw israel into it to unite palestinian factions against it and stop the civil war. with idiots like olmert in charge, it may work.

the only way to deal with hamas is to crush it. even mubarak has stated it publicly. democracy means nothing either for hamas or most of the palestinian public. holding anybody to "democracy" is absurd.

Posted by: fp at May 20, 2007 05:57 PM

Yo Yo, don't arrogantly lecture me because you believe I support the scumbags in Fatah for some mysterious reason.

You don't know what I think about Fatah unless you ask. So stick a sock in it.

I'm done arguing for right now. I have actual work to do so I can pay bills.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 06:00 PM

Three people threw rocks at the Baath Party office. So? The Baathists are lucky the Lebanese Army hasn't shelled it yet.

I admire how some neo-cons love to twist the story around. I said three people were arrested for firing bullets at the damn building + rioters stonning it. When Hezbollah was on the street abiding by every single peaceful aspect of the word peace, you went berzerk as if someone stepped on your nuts.

I also sometime admire how foolish some - i mean all of you could be. The Lebanese army firing at the Baath party HQ? How luck? PLEASE go open a book about lebanon and read - i'll beg if you want :D

Posted by: Yo Yo at May 20, 2007 06:00 PM

i meant both israelis and the US

Posted by: fp at May 20, 2007 06:01 PM

Not clear to me how a bomb throwing party by Syrian factions becomes the US' problem, but then I don't understand how a yo-yo can go up and down so many times & still not accomplish anything much.

Posted by: steve miller at May 20, 2007 06:03 PM

mike,

stop feeding the idiots.

Posted by: fp at May 20, 2007 06:03 PM

steve,

that's what a yoyo is all about, no?

Posted by: fp at May 20, 2007 06:05 PM

Hamas and al Sadr's organization don't seem to be working on nukes at the moment, Micheal. Both were elected to power in elections America pushed for.

Actively trying to kill their members just because we don't care for their politics at the moment makes us look like crass, bloodthirsty clowns.

You can't pose as benevolent champions of democracy yet operate like the old Soviet Union and expect to be taken seriously.

Posted by: alphie at May 20, 2007 06:07 PM

I admire how some neo-cons love to twist the story around. I said three people were arrested for firing bullets at the damn building + rioters stonning it.

Yeah, No No - and the link you provided simply stated: "Angry demonstrators threw stones at Baath party offices in Tripoli Sunday evening"...

... but I guess we should just take your word for it... LOL

Posted by: mertel at May 20, 2007 06:09 PM

Exactly. Only one link out of the whole english-language internet made a mention of the story. How do you expect the story to be told in full? Why didn't any other english-language news-source mention the incident in full? Isn't it considered an escalation? To target the offices of a party with no links to Syria (these were the offices of the Lebanese Baath Party - not Syrian) and still get away without even covering the story.

But when Hezbollah demonstrates leggaly, lawfully, constituitonally etc we get all this bullshit bout taking over lebanon and coup and walid jumblat comes out to tan his bald-patch and start talking crazy.

Tomorrow watch how Jumblat will act. He wil not talk the same way he talked to MJT all those months ago. He will be more - moderate with Hezbollah you wait and see.

Posted by: No No at May 20, 2007 06:16 PM

Alphie,

I fail to see how launching rockets at civilians in Sderot qualifies as a political policy or qualifies Hamas as an entity worthy of diplomatic recognition. It is really irrelevant how a despot comes to power when determining the best method to deal with them.

Posted by: IMFink'sPa at May 20, 2007 06:33 PM

alphie,

have you lost your mind?

it's hamas that's the bloodthirsty, not those who defend themselves from its genocidal attacks. it's assholes like you on the US side that are responsible for this disaster.

i reiterate: it was idiotic to push for those elections to end up with a govt that is contemptuous of democracy. besides, do you really believe that elections = democracy?

name an arab/islamic state that is democratic? there used to be turkey and lebanon, but they turned out to be a short-term illusion, didn't they?

Posted by: fp at May 20, 2007 06:34 PM

is nono another kind of yoyo?

Posted by: fp at May 20, 2007 06:35 PM

fink,

hitler came to power democratically. and the world dealt with him just like it deals with hamas and iran now. plus ca change...

Posted by: fp at May 20, 2007 06:37 PM

fp,

Just the prime example of a long and distinctly undistinguished list.

Posted by: IMFink'sPa at May 20, 2007 06:43 PM

It isn't Hamas that doesn't talk to rivals, it's the US.

March 12, 2007, Reuters: Hamas says still seeks Israel's destruction

Sure, they'll talk to their rivals - just about destroying them.

MJT,

I rather doubt the US is training Palestinian Fatah fighters, but I don't know for sure and could be wrong.

The Washington Post reported that they were trained in Egypt in a "U.S. backed program" on Friday - although they didn't get very detailed into the nature of the training. Whatever it was, it couldn't have been that lengthy.

Fatah Troops Enter Gaza With Israeli Assent:

Hundreds Were Trained in Egypt Under U.S.-Backed Program to Counter Hamas

By Scott Wilson
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, May 18, 2007; A01

JERUSALEM, May 17 -- Israel this week allowed the Palestinian party Fatah to bring into the Gaza Strip as many as 500 fresh troops trained under a U.S.-coordinated program to counter Hamas, the radical Islamic movement that won Palestinian parliamentary elections last year. Fighting between Hamas and Fatah has left about 45 Palestinians dead since Sunday.

The forces belong to units loyal to the elected Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, a moderate Fatah leader whom the Bush administration and Israel have sought to strengthen militarily and politically. A spokeswoman for the European Union Border Assistance Mission at Rafah, where the fighters crossed into Gaza from Egypt, said their entry Tuesday was approved by Israel.
Posted by: SoCalJustice at May 20, 2007 06:54 PM

To: Michael Totten
Subject: Your words of choice

From time to time I read your blogs, some of which I enjoy and some not. Reading your comment

"Blaming Israel and the US for this clash is retarded."

made me wince. Not because of the political opinion but the way in which you expressed it.

I used to work with adults with cognitive devolopmental disabilities, helping them learn life skills. When I hear some one call, or write in your case, someone else a retard as a way to put the person down I am repulsed. I am shocked that someone who likes to be viewed as a professional journalist of world events would use this type of language against another person. I am confident your vocabulary does not truely reflect the above quote. It is not a kind reflection of yourself. Maybe you didn't mean to hurt anyone's feelings except the person you were replying to but I still find your choice of words unprofessional. Please respect my constructive criticism.

Thank you

Sage

Posted by: sage at May 20, 2007 06:59 PM

sage, that infantile. better than retarded? would you still wince?

fyi, it's the professional journalists these days that are retarded -- it's a major qualification.

in net exchanges often you gotta call a spade a spade, or you'll end up burried in ignorami and fools. that's reality, whether you like it or not.

you should have winced at the blaming, not at the response.

Posted by: fp at May 20, 2007 07:18 PM

fp,

Sorry if I don't find Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and al Sadr so completely unsympathetic that I would endorse any tactics, no matter how ruthless and underhanded, being employed against them.

Posted by: alphie at May 20, 2007 08:55 PM

Michael, I see someone else already posted it, but it's well known that the US is committed to training up PA forces, which means Fatah. Practically, it's a CIA responsibility in one of the last round of agreements.

But another thing struck me as I read your article. I've been busy posting (here and here) about my friends getting rocketed in Sderot, Israel, and not paying much attention to what's going on in the rest of the Middle East.

What's with these things happening at the same time? Strikes me a little strange that multiple points of major instability pop up at that same time, and both involve similar command & control channels (Syria & Iran). Any thoughts on this 'coincidence'?

Posted by: Akiva at May 20, 2007 09:07 PM

alphie,

to be "not unsympathetic" to hamas and to deem israel ruthless you ought to have your head examined.

it never ceases to amaze me how ignorant and stupid people can be.

Posted by: fp at May 20, 2007 09:26 PM

if orwell were alive today he couldn't be prouder of his doublespeak: night is day, lies are truth, forward is backward, declared genocidal islamists deserve sympathy and israel is ruthless.

pls stop the world, I wanna get off.

Posted by: fp at May 20, 2007 09:32 PM

Alphie,

Who said anything about "any tactic"? Which tactics being used againt Hamas are "too ruthless" or "underhanded"? Do you have any alternative suggestions besides evacuating Sderot and other regions in the south? Is it really so ruthless to target those who fire rockets and those who order rockets to be fired? Does a responsible government really have any alternative?

The US and Israel have set some pretty reasonable conditions to recognizing the Hamas government: accept prior agreements and recognize Israel's right to exist. Stop firing rockets, recognize Israel, agree to abide by prior agreements and ask to initiate negotiations and all Israeli action in Gaza would stop. Seems simple and fair enough. So long as they chose to pursue the existing strategy, Israel must take steps to protect its citizens. Instead of bemoaning the response, perhaps you have some suggested alternative that will meet Israel's obligations to its citizens and show Hamas the sympathy you claim it deserves.

Posted by: IMFink'sPa at May 20, 2007 09:44 PM

fp,

I'm just saying that if a tactic is immoral for one side to use, then it's immoral for any side to use it.

Oddly, it's the self-righteous people who insist on dividing the world's population into good and evil camps that seem to have the hardest time grasping this simple lesson.

Posted by: alphie at May 20, 2007 09:49 PM

Sorry Alphie, I'm calling bullshit. Whether a particular tactic is immoral is entirely dependent on the context. While I might agree that explicitly targeting civilians is always immoral (the lessons of WWII notwithstanding), the vast majority of tactics are subject to being contextualized. You add nothing to the debate when you make overbroad generalizations and state them as a truism. What specific tactics are you talking about and under what circumstances? Are you actually referring to tactics (inclusive of intent) or merely outcome. For one who is quick to chastise those who see things in black and white (of which I am not one), it did not take you long to draw such a black and white line as it relates to tactics.

Posted by: IMFink'sPa at May 20, 2007 09:55 PM

Akiva - what to say? People here are trying to tell people about Sderot - the MSM barely mentions it - AI doesn't spare a word for the people of Sderot or other Israeli citizens, while lambasting Israel for more human rights abuses than the Sudan - I guess that's another story - or is it?

Anyway - you asked for thoughts on the "coincidence" - and Michael says he is busy right now.

So for what it's worth here are some ideas.

So - is it a coincidence? Maybe people sense the West is weak, tired of Iraq; the Democrats have a majority in Congress and perhaps they are perceived as less committed to the people of the Middle East, less committed to reform (which I find strange - ). Blair is stepping down.

And of course there are the "realists". As it is at least one Iraqi leader is worried that talks with Iran, now on the table apparently as Baker suggested, will threaten Iraq's sovereignty.

Meanwhile, Iran has an American scholar as hostage, Syria cracked down on "dissidents" after Pelosi's visit and Egyptian bloggers have been jailed and/or scared off the 'net.

So, why not make a move on the two states (besides Turkey - also getting complicated) which reflect modern, pro-Western ideals? The Hariri tribunal and as usual Iran's nuclear program are issues that require a diversion. Dragging Israel back into martial action in Gaza guarantees press - it's reminiscent of the kidnappings and rocket attacks last summer.

It is a potential disaster I think, exactly what is called for to derail any kind of non-violent progress. Look what happened after the Oslo Accords were signed - or when Clinton crafted his statehood idea.

I was reading about Fatah al-Islam and they definitely want to "liberate" al Aqsa,as does Hamas of course, and otherwise advance a religious agenda.

How is this going to happen if people actually make peace or at least agree to try and move forward together, solving earthly problems and trying to grow the regional economy?

Indeed there was a report just now that the US has greenlighted Israeli/Syrian peace talks. The conference in Jordan reflects the sentiment that climate change, terrorism and possible weakening in demand for petroleum compel the nations of the Middle East to work together (and thus maybe make some rational decisions, like recognizing Israel's potential to contribute her creativity to the region's benefit.) Erekat told Iran to stop talking about erasing Israel from the map and start talking about adding Palestine to it. Other pieces in the press reassure Israel they are serious about wanting peace and Peres says he will prepare a serious response to the Saudi initiative.

That's got to scare people who refuse to accept Lebanese sovereignty and Israel's existence, and who are focused on a particular religious point of view.

Posted by: Sophia at May 20, 2007 10:11 PM

IMFink,

I'm not a moral person, I'm a rational person.

I give far more weight to results than intentions.

For example, I consider anyone who kills a civilian a terrorist whether they were aiming at a bad guy or not.

I understand that those who need to feel morally superior will, of course, reverse the weighting.

Posted by: alphie at May 20, 2007 10:28 PM

Alphie -

Do you, by any chance, have an imaginary girlfriend named Jelly?

Posted by: MarkC at May 20, 2007 10:39 PM

Alphie,

Sounds to me like you're the one seeking out morally superior higher ground. You adhere to the higher ideal and cleave to it purely. Your approach has no regard for the future, only the now and consigns those who would wish to build a future to indefinite struggle. I will lament the loss of innocent life as much as the next person, but if it is the unintentional consequence of preventing genocide and staking out a foothold on a better future, I'll take the better future. Fortunately for those of us in the States, such decisions have not had to been made on a regular basis (I was opposed to Iraq for what its worth), others have had to struggle with such questions on a regular basis. The moral absolutes you hold to ignore history and reality. You have answered none of my prior questions, but it is apparent that you feel that any step taken to prevent further rocket attacks, which defensive measures kill a civilian (however that is defined) is unjustified. So the citizens of Sderot can turn the other cheek until they are obliterated, or they can leave. If you really want a world in which those who care not for civilians can get what they want by threatening those who do with violence, you conception is good recipe.

Sad.

Posted by: IMFink'sPa at May 20, 2007 10:46 PM

I consider anyone who kills a civilian a terrorist whether they were aiming at a bad guy or not.

You're a moral idiot then.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 10:50 PM

Boo hoo boo hoo

Dear Basher ya ibn gahba and to "yo yo" KIS IMEK YA SHARMOOTA KLEB SOOORYEEE...just because the lebanese army has shed blood to protect this country does not entitle you to even one iota of free time to spew your garbage. MJT there is a time to allow free speech and a time to check it for the sake of the whole -This is the time. One more group has been f*^%ed up and good ridance. I say NEXT!!! By the way Syria under that fucking dog bashar only hates islamists if it can't export them...they after all are the best export Syria has right now!! Engage/don't engage..hmmm how about bomb the fuck out of al Baath party headquarters in Damascus and then your mukhabarat headquarters accross the street...what asy you YO YO?

Please stay out of lebanese politics...the time when one lebanese will kill another for the political idealogy of another backwater is over...YOU WANT WAR..THEN FUCK YOU YOU WILL HAVE IT!!! Every one of you dogs in my country that longs to live in paradise your time is nigh...IM SICK OF THIS SHIT...stop trying to make excuses for the dictators who rape kill maim in on ongoing basis to support their gangster rule...SPEAK UP FOR THE THOSE WHO DIE IN REAL HONOUR FOR THEIR COUNTRY...OTHERWISE SHUT THE FUCK UP!!!!

Shunkleash (PBUH)

Posted by: shunkleash at May 20, 2007 11:01 PM

Dude, chill.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 11:05 PM

Maybe so, Michael.

But at least I have an objective standard to measure people's actions by.

I think it beats taking their word for it or trying to peer into their soul.

Posted by: alphie at May 20, 2007 11:31 PM

So you think Mohammad Atta is no worse a person than a soldier who accidentally kills a civilian while taking out five Al Qaeda guys? Failure to aim properly during combat is as morally repugnant to you as deliberate mass-murder of thousands?

Take an ethics class. Seriously.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2007 11:37 PM

Alphie,

Your standard is not objective. It is the very definition of subjective. Moreover, it is arbitrary. The same can be said of bin Laden. He has a nice clear line, it is arbitrary and evil, but clear. Easy does not mean objective. It is not objectively true that the killing of a civilian is always evil. Our criminal laws reflect the long debated values of our society and have, on the whole, come to an agreement that certain killings are less culpable than others, or even entirely without culpability. Every jurisdiction in the United States (and all other jurisdictions that I'm aware of) allow some sort of justification defense to homicide. Apparently, your logic is superior to the great weight of western logic, ethics, and jurisprudence such that you can set the line where you like. But, how does your arrogance work in practice?

Your standard has no ability to control the actions of others or even pursuade or modify the behavior of others. It is amoral.

Can it even be applied? How does it translate into action? If you can answer even one question, try this one...

What should the state of Israel, or the citizens of Sderot and the Negev for that matter, do about the hundreds of rockets that are, and have been, indiscriminately raining down on the civilians of Sderot for the past 6+ months? Any suggestions?

Posted by: IMFink'sPa at May 20, 2007 11:44 PM

You're a moral idiot then.

You could have tightened up that sentence.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at May 20, 2007 11:47 PM

Pretty fucking unbelievable.
What, you say? The speed at which the zionist conspiracy comments arrive.

Fact: Syria told everyone (Lebanese politicians, Ban Ki-Moon, his predecessors, etc...) that if the Hariri tribunal is voted, there will be blood.

Fact: Syria exfiltrated hundreds of professional fighters who were tracked by Lebanese intelligence, and some of them ended up in the fight yesterday.

Fact: Many pro-Syrian Lebanese politicians travelled to Syria in the past few days (much more than usual), in what is now seen as a "strategy" session.

Fact: The UN security council is close to adopting the tribunal under chapter 7.

Fact: Last night's bomb in Achrafieh is exactly the same setup as the 2005 string of bombings. Pure terrorism.

I was pretty violently woken up last night. You can guess why.
That makes it the second time in 2 years I am physically shaken (and I mean PHYSICALLY, i.e. via shockwaves) by a bomb. The first time was July 2005.

I wonder how many lives I still have.

Posted by: Rik at May 20, 2007 11:52 PM

To sum up yesterday. The clashes in Lebanon. This is typical. We have seen this before. The Lebanese Army is given an opportunity by the political class (and by the sectarian sects--all of them) to show muscle, but only against the refugee camps of Lebanon. I remember this from my childhood. Back in 1973, Israeli terrorists (headed by Ehud Barak) sneaked into Lebanon and killed Palestinian leaders: one of them was a poet sleeping in his bed (Kamal Nasir). The Lebanese Army did not lift a finger--it never does against Israel. And all the historical accounts of 1948 war in Lebanese history books are plain false: the token Lebanese troops that ostensibly were part of the Arab armies did not even cross the border into Palestine. The Lebanese government in 1973, engineered an attack on the Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon: the handful of Lebanese fighter jets were used to bomb the refugee camps. This time around, the Lebanese Army was dragged into this by the Hariri camp. They wanted to start a fight. Elements of the conspiracy are connected: is it a coincidence that US-supported, financed, and armed Dahlan gangs were fighting Hamas in Gaza, while US-supported, financed, and armed Lebanese forces are used against the Palestinians in Nahr Al-Barid refugee camp? Now let us be clear: Fath Al-Islam should not even be seen as a legitimate Palestinian organization: it comprises mostly fanatical Saudis and other Arab nationals. Their rhetoric is comparable to that of fanatical fundamentalist groups although they deny links to Al-Qa`idah. March 14th officials in Lebanon want to connect them to the Syrian regime by insisting that Fath-Al-Islam is the same as Fath-Intifada although the two groups are clearly different, if not divergent. The March 14th camp wanted to instigate this in order to 1) blame this (like everything else) on Syria and on the Palestinians--as usual in Lebanese political culture; 2) to render services to the American patron of the Lebanese regime; 3) to claim that now it is time for the Lebanese Army to hold a monopoly over the use of force in Lebanon although we did not see any enthusiasm on the party of the Lebanese Army to exercise its monopoly over the use of fores when Israel attacked Lebanon last summer, and other Lebanese resisted the invasion and occupation of Lebanon while the Army either stood by or helped in secret--in secret. Have you ever heard an Army defending the land in secret? Abbas Nasir (the Hizbullah supporter and former correspondent for Al-Manar TV), the Beirut correspondent of AlJazeera, was besides himself yesterday and today. He was repulsively cheering the Lebanese Army, and merely reporting Lebanese Army propaganda claims. But he did report one important story that has not been reported in any other Lebanese news media: this will also be hidden from tomorrow's newspapers in Beirut. He reported that armed groups (belonging to March 14th camp) showed up on the scene and offered to help the Lebanese Army in killing Palestinians. And then you see the Sunni Mufti of Lebanon--who has no credentials and is known for his weakness vis-a-vis Hariri tri-monthly payments--came out from his hiding, to blame the Palestinians and to offer his evaluations of what is truly Islamic and what is truly Palestinian. And then mini-Hariri came out and read what they wrote for him in Arabic: he denounced the "terrorists" forgetting that the Sunni fanatical groups in Lebanon flourished since his family began its generous financial support for such groups during the last parliamentary elections, and due to the Hariri policy of intense sectarian agitations. The top Shi`ite cleric (again chosen not for his scholarship but for his loyalty to the Amal movement), `Abdul-Amir Qabalan, also came out to praise the Lebanese Army. What are they praising: the scenes of Lebanese Army tanks shelling the refugee camps of Nahr Al-Barid? But make no mistake: nothing will change. It will end like every other incident of this kind ends: in a stalemate, and in things returning back to abnormal. This is Lebanon. Although one thing yesterday proved was the distinction between Hizbollah and Islamic radicals the US - and everyone else - fears.

Posted by: Ko Ko at May 21, 2007 12:02 AM

IM,

When the moralists wind up killing more innocents than the bad guys, I think it's time to stop handing out free passes for good intentions.

As for the rockets falling on Sderot, I think it's time Israel deployed the laser defense they've been pouring millions into...or move the scientists who have been working on it to Sderot until it is deployed.

Posted by: alphie at May 21, 2007 12:32 AM

Just as I thought. You have nothing to offer, except for strained humor at the expense of a beleaguered population.

If your philosophy can't give rise to a reasonable response to a real world dilemna, perhaps its time you admit its useless and, moreover, scrap the weak attempts at humor. It may be all theoretical to you, but I have friends and family who would benefit from a real answer to my question. Some might say that making light of those innocents under fire is little different from celebrating from the roof top when one is injured. It is complicit with those who would harm them and contrary to your own stated philosophy.

There would be those who maintain that the people who endanger innocents by using them as shields while they endanger other innocents are responsible for all innocents who are injured or harmed.

For my part, I would select the course of action that harms the least amount of innocents while leading to the longest period of peace. I am not adequately aware of Israel's military capabilities, but the stories I have been reading over the past 3-5 days are reflective of an intense effort to narrowly target culpable parties with the intent of protecting the State's citizens while minimizing collateral harm in Palestine. Surely, Hamas is in the position to protect its own innocents simply by halting its rocket attacks. It should be noted, that it doesn't even need to stop all rocket attacks as rockets have been dropping on Israel for 6 months with little or no response because the attacks were not eminating from the Palestinian government and it appeared that some efforts were being made to halt them.

It is extraordinary that you would fault Israel for attempting to protect its citizens, make light of its plight, and absolve the aggressor of any responsibility for its own innocents. At least your line is clear.

Posted by: IMFink'sPa at May 21, 2007 12:51 AM

IMFink,

What makes you think I am kidding about Israel's laser defense and the scientists working on it?

To me, they are just another bunch who have been given a free pass because of their supposed good intentions.

They continue to put out propaganda films to keep their funding going while the rockets continue to fall.

If this thing is as good as they say it is, let's see it in action in the western Negev.

Posted by: alphie at May 21, 2007 01:13 AM

Now your being disingenous and, frankly, despicable.

Propaganda? Israel has made numerous advances in more humane weapons and defense systems. They advertise what is in progress in the hopes it will deter attacks, gain some pr, and to market the products. You are well aware that Israel has no functional system to shoot down incoming rockets (beyond a few patriot platforms that are ill suited to the Qassem risk, and other short range missiles) and, yet, suggest they simply deploy it as if they have the means to prevent the damage being wreaked by Hamas and are choosing other methods. Barring that, you then suggest that even if such a system is not, yet, deployable, innocent civilians working on a purely defensive weapons system should sit in harms way.

How have the scientists and government working on such purely defensive systems been given a free pass? What evidence have you that pursuing such systems have caused anyone any harm? Surely you are aware that Israel is under constant threat of missile attack? Why, then, should it be any way inappropriate to attempt to develop systems that can neutralize such attacks without, as is now the case, risking human lives to take out the means to launch such missiles? Why, again, is it wrong to seek funding for a purely defensive anti-missile system that would sure spare lives and property damage on both sides?

I have asked you a number of sincere questions and when you finally deign to answer one, it is with a flip, off-hand comment that suggests putting people in harms way or that Israel is looking to maximize civilian damage when they have the means to defend themselves.

I have addressed your ideas, challenged your assumptions, and posed numerous questions, all without insulting you personally and you return with pale truisms and righteous emptiness. If you have a practical solution, by all means put it forward, but to make light of the lives in jeopardy, is heartless.

I would never suggest that the loss of any Palestinian life (even terrorists) is without regret. Each lost life in this conflict is preventable, if only the two sides would prefer to talk and compromise, and avoid incitement. Apparently, you don't hold the same regard for Israeli's. Even if the Israeli government and scientists are perpetrating some evil by promoting their efforts to develop a laser defense system, that hardly addresses how to protect the innocent Israelis in the Negev and to suggest that those same scientists you imply are doing them a disservice simply join them in their fate is insulting to each of them.

Posted by: IMFink'sPa at May 21, 2007 01:29 AM

I think it's time to stop feeding Alphie's immature need for attention to his adolescent ideas.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 21, 2007 01:30 AM

My apologies Michael. A little insomnia will go a long way up here in the Pacific Northwest and, frankly, I was surprised that the conversation turned in the direction it did. Good evening all.

Posted by: IMFink'sPa at May 21, 2007 01:35 AM

No need to apologize. Alphie should apologize for being immature and flippant about matters of life and death for your friends. But he won't.

I'm in the Pacific Northwest and have insomnia also.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 21, 2007 01:37 AM

Imagine how sweet it must be for the people getting paid to spread democracy, stop rockets, etc. that a call for them to actually produce some results is labled "immature."

Life wasn't so cushy for the people with the same jobs during WWII, a war the prowar crowd thinks was won with...good intentions alone.

Posted by: alphie at May 21, 2007 01:42 AM

I think it's time to stop feeding Alphie's immature need for attention to his adolescent ideas.

You realize you're providing him with a soapbox....

Posted by: jonorose at May 21, 2007 02:48 AM

Great idea, Alphie

Let's also give all those stupid inefficient cancer researchers a nice aggressive malignancy as well. That should speed things up.

It's fascinating the way some people try to act so smart that they just end up highlighting their simple idiocy to the world.

Posted by: mertel at May 21, 2007 06:21 AM

Michael, the leader of Fatah al-Islam is actually a wanted man in Syria and has done time there for terrorism.

So much for the non-idiots, eh?

Posted by: Naha at May 21, 2007 06:52 AM

Ah yes, well, here's an answer from the link, at the top of this current post, to Tony Badran's "Across the Bay" blog (quoting an article from the Jerusalem Post):

Suspicions regarding Fatah al-Islam center on the fact that Shakir al-Abssi was sentenced in 2003 to three years in prison in Syria after being convicted of plotting attacks inside the country. This was an unusually lenient sentence. By comparison, for example, Syrians suspected of involvement in the Muslim Brotherhood are routinely given 12-year terms. Al-Abssi, after his release, turned up among pro-Syrian Fatah-intifada circles in Nahr al-Bared and shortly afterward emerged as the leader of the new group, Fatah al-Islam.

Posted by: Barry Meislin at May 21, 2007 07:16 AM

Today again the army had to confront the terrorists of Syria who want nothing else than burn Lebanon as Bachar promised!!! Lebanon has to wake up or face destruction. I hope Michael won't mind but I read few interesting views about it on http://www.publiuspundit.com/ alongside the blogs he already mentioned.

Posted by: Maha at May 21, 2007 08:20 AM

alphie is not just a moral idiot, he IS an idiot.
unfortunately, his ilk are a dime a dozen. they populate most net exchanges and feel competent to opine on subjects without any knowledge of them and without any reasoning capacity. they waste the time and nerves of those have a minimum of intellect and knowledge. we just had a similar experience with another idiot named jeffb on another site. here's the threads:

http://www.theaugeanstables.com/2007/05/13/the-finkielkraut-debate-jeff-b-vs-alia/

http://www.theaugeanstables.com/2007/05/20/what-is-propaganda-questions-to-jeffb/

the best thing to do is to ignore him. if there is enough discipline on this after a while he will leave, because any engagement makes him think that he is a worthy interlocutor who contributes something to the discussion. disabuse him of of such notions.

Posted by: fp at May 21, 2007 08:34 AM

Sophia,

>So - is it a coincidence? Maybe people sense the West is weak, tired of Iraq; the Democrats have a majority in Congress and perhaps they are perceived as less committed to the people of the Middle East, less committed to reform (which I find strange - ). Blair is stepping down.

perhaps this explains it:

http://nationaljournal.com/njcover.htm

Posted by: fp at May 21, 2007 02:05 PM

or perhaps this:

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/articles/070520/28edit_print.htm

or this:

http://littlegreenfootballs.com/weblog/?entry=25573_A_Lost_Dream_of_Mickey&only

or this:

http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/016555.php

or this:

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/cover052107.htm

or this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSL2070307620070420

or this:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/862046.html

or this:

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/861204.html

or this:

http://www.jihadwatch.org/dhimmiwatch/archives/016538.php

and it's just a sample.

Posted by: fp at May 21, 2007 03:51 PM

or maybe this:

http://www.debbieschlussel.com/archives/2007/05/exclusive_dhs_o.html

or this:

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2007/5/20/204652.shtml?s=ic

or this:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/world/20070520-115403-6190r.htm

or this:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/world/20070520-115400-9668r.htm

Posted by: fp at May 21, 2007 04:18 PM

and more than probable this:

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/opinion/articles/070520/28edit_print.htm

Posted by: fp at May 21, 2007 04:40 PM

"alphie is not just a moral idiot, he IS an idiot."

Amen.

Posted by: Meg at May 21, 2007 08:57 PM

Thank you, fp.

The Zuckerman article struck me too, especially, though everything you posted was of interest.

I was talking to my dad today, who is 84. He thinks we're doomed. (Of course so does my husband and he is only 56:) So -

Why should not old men be mad?
Some have known a likely lad
That had a sound fly-fisher's wrist
Turn to a drunken journalist;
A girl that knew all Dante once
Live to bear children to a dunce;
A Helen of social welfare dream,
Climb on a wagonette to scream.
Some think it a matter of course that chance
Should starve good men and bad advance,
That if their neighbours figured plain,
As though upon a lighted screen,
No single story would they find
Of an unbroken happy mind,
A finish worthy of the start.
Young men know nothing of this sort,
Observant old men know it well;
And when they know what old books tell
And that no better can be had,
Know why an old man should be mad.

http://classiclit.about.com/library/bl-etexts/wbyeats/bl-wbye-why.htm

The comment thread on MT's article about Kouchner dovetails. Are we throwing everything away in a search for simple answers? Where is our faith in the future, in creativity, education, moderation, compromise, hope, in trying to take right action? I read that the French Socialists threw Kouchner out of the party when Sarkozy appointed him.

http://www.afp.com/english/news/stories/070518220944.4bzozibs.html

WHY?

I speak as a dismayed refugee from the Left. The past few years have damaged my faith. Rather than seeking answers, rational answers, it seems that all too many of us have fallen into a romance with violence, with absolutism, with reactionary forces - we've lost our polestar. Rather than changing the pattern, stepping back and looking at things freshly, we keep trying to beat dead horses - then wondering why they can't get up and fly. We've trapped ourselves in a cycle of rage and blame when the answer might be a simple as opening a different door.

I know one thing: if we give up hope, if we decide in fact we're doomed, or that death is truly a preferable fate to the challenge and beauty and sorrow of life, then that will indeed be our future.

For the sake of those who haven't had a chance yet, who still don't know the things Yeats knew when he made that poem - who still believe that The Book of the People remains unfinished - can we keep on trying?

Who knows - maybe instead of making an awful doom we can create a garden.

Posted by: Sophia at May 21, 2007 10:12 PM

Just one last line about Alphie. His blog is entitled Alpha Victim. That's right, he's the pious sacrificial lamb, the ultimate victim. Interesting context for his comments here...

MJT: do you think that there is a way the US could punish Syria and prevent this kind of meddling without a full-blown regime change operation?

Posted by: OmegaPaladin at May 22, 2007 12:52 AM

Drop a JDAM on baby Assad and make sure his successor knows that acting like baby Assad will result in the same fate.

Posted by: rosignol at May 22, 2007 06:36 AM

More Alphie droppings. He messes up the comments at Crittenden's place as well.

Alphie, if you had any intelligence and any sense of shame you would never comment publicly again. The absurd things you have written here today are a monument to the adage "It is better to be thought a fool than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt".

Posted by: Brian at May 22, 2007 08:34 AM

sophia,

welcome to the club. it's not the old men who are mad, it's the young men who are ignorant and unable to reason. and it's not entirely their fault: they may be schooled, but they are not educated.

if existing trends continue, or as i observe, exacerbate we are indeed doomed.

Posted by: fp at May 22, 2007 09:31 AM

omega,

victimization is the technique by which one escapes responsibility. the left and the arabs accuse the israelis and the west of "colonialism", but it is they who are guilty of it: the latter represent themselves as such, and the former propagate it, turning them into robots who are incapable of their own choices. everything that happens to them is israel's fault. you cannot get any more racist and colonialist than that.

(since everything is the will of allah, aren't the israelis his tools and, therefore, not responsible either?)

Posted by: fp at May 22, 2007 09:42 AM

dubai, the normal one. just like the rest of the arabs.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/21/AR2007052101725.html?nav=rss_world/mideast

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