March 07, 2007

Fraternizing with the Enemy

Here’s an old Syrian joke which I’m probably not telling correctly:

An official informed the late Hafez Assad of the results of the so-called election. “Sir,” he said. “You won 99.99 percent of the vote!”

Assad frowned and rubbed his chin.

“Sir,” said the official. “Only 0.01 percent of the people voted against you. What more do you want?”

“Their names,” Assad said.

One of those names was Ammar Abdulhamid, a Syrian dissident and blogger who (bravely?) allowed himself to be interviewed in an Israeli newspaper.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at March 7, 2007 02:05 AM
Comments

Michael,

I could swear it is not Syrian but Soviet joke.

Than again, does it matter?

Posted by: leo at March 7, 2007 06:12 AM

"Together with his colleagues from the Muslim Brotherhood, Abdulhamid founded the National Salvation Front, an umbrella organization of opposition groups working for the democratization of Syria."

I am confused when I read about 'MB' and 'democracy' in the same sentence.
At this point my impression of MB is that it is organization working hard on installing Islamic law in lieu of Secular law in Egypt.
Is its Syrian chapter different? Is my information incorrect? Can anyone explain?

Posted by: leo at March 7, 2007 06:29 AM

I am confused when I read about 'MB' and 'democracy' in the same sentence.

My impression of the Muslim Brotherhood is that they're the financial hub of a billion dollar Islamist terrorist network, but I've never associated them with 'democracy' either.

They do have a very active marketing department. Maybe the 'democracy' thing is their pitch in the Middle East?

Posted by: mary at March 7, 2007 09:16 AM

Well, I'm asking the same questions as Leo. I'm confused about this as well. Muslim Brotherhood & Democracy?

Posted by: Renée C. at March 7, 2007 10:03 AM

This is interesting. Druze leader Jumblatt in an interview attacking Bashar al-Assad (and Nasrallah) fearlessly.

There's more in the video than in the transcript, I think.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at March 7, 2007 12:06 PM

Michael, I'm curious if you (or any other readers) can comment on the accuracy of the article "The Moderate Muslim Brotherhood" in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, by Robert Leiken and Steven Brooke. The article claims that the MB is really non-jihadist and pro-democracy (but an Islamic version thereof). Anyone with first-hand experience have any comments on this?

Thanks!!

Posted by: Shlomo at March 7, 2007 06:08 PM

The difference between bravery and foolishness is: timing.

Posted by: Jeha at March 7, 2007 06:58 PM

Yes. But perhaps a dash of foolishness can speed things up a little.

Posted by: Solomon2 at March 7, 2007 08:08 PM

Totten, this is an old joke and it might be offensive to Iraqi/Kurdish muslims or it might be funny:

After Saddam hung his soul moved on to paradise. He started banging on the golden door eager to deal with his 72 virgins for eternity. Robert E. Lee answered the door and kicked him in the groin. Then Jefferson stepped out and stomped on his eye socket.

Saddam cried out:

"Why God? Why is this happening? Where are my virgins?"

God replied:

"Saddam, you raped and tortured "your" nation. (God does air quotes when you are typing not speaking btw:) You are not in paradise. You ruled that country by making slaves of the citizens. You raped, tortured and starved the people who were cursed to live within "your" forsaken lands. The reward for your crimes is not virgins, it's Virginains. Deal with that."

I thought the Syrian/bathist joke was pretty funny. I mentioned Arab humor on the other thread because some guy went "Looking for Humor in the Muslim World" and didn't visit the M.E. You are going with a camera and everyone enjoys a laugh so it could be kind of sweet for everyone.

Posted by: mikek at March 7, 2007 10:58 PM

The article claims that the MB is really non-jihadist and pro-democracy (but an Islamic version thereof).

No firsthand experience, but I am highly skeptical. While there is a certain amount of painting them as extremists in order to make the existing governments look less bad in comparison, the reports I have seen (including some interviews with MB spokesmen in Egypt) have been distinctly light on actual policy positions and very heavy on "the Koran contains the answer" responses.

I dunno if they're militant nuts pretending to be moderates to avoid a crackdown, ignorant fools with guns, or genuinely want something along the lines of "Democracy with Islamic characteristics*", but I see little reason to take a chance on them. The consequences of making a bad call are simply too great.

*and as is the case of "Communism with Chinese characteristics", "Democracy with Islamic characteristics" will probably not look very much like what westerners think of as 'democracy'.

Posted by: rosignol at March 7, 2007 11:04 PM

Consider what democracy is all about. Basically, it means that the people are in charge. They may hire representatives to represent them (representative democracy) or make decisions directly, but regardless, in a democracy the people are the ultimate authority.

Islamism is different. The people are most emphatically NOT the ultimate authority. The ultimate authority in an Islamist regime is whoever dictates the regime's "official" version of Islam. This person or group is not elected by the people, and the people have no control over him/them.

The MB is in favor of "democracy" as long as it is not in power. Once democracy has served its purpose as a means to the end of gaining power, the MB will always discard it.

HAMAS (the "MB in Palestine") is an example. HAMAS ran in an election, but after it came to power, its interest in the will of the people largely disappeared. The decision-making process used by HAMAS is anything but open and democratic and the decision-makers are not answerable to or even accessible to the popular electorate.

Posted by: Zvi at March 8, 2007 01:41 AM

The very same joke appeared in a Dry Bones cartoon in the 70's, except that the figure was 99.6% IIRC.

It would make sense if it was originally a Soviet joke, as Israelis know plenty of Soviet jokes, but not many Syrian jokes.

Posted by: maor at March 8, 2007 04:12 AM

Mike,

I think you have the joke right,

Ros,

While there is a certain amount of painting them as extremists in order to make the existing governments look less bad in comparison,

Yeah. And more than that, all the way up to and including using government black ops people to conduct terrorist attacks much more heinous than any occurring locally, for the express purpose of radicalizing, delegitimizing and tarnishing the opposition (see Algeria & the GIA).

I'm not saying your position isn't reasonable, but you should reconsider, based on the following positions:

a) A non-native, non-authentic, non-mass-based installation of model democracy has no chance. The movements popular on the ground will ultimately come forth. See Iraq. In Syria, this means the MB will rule in the end, even if you spend a lot of blood and treasure to avoid it.

b) You can't fake something at all levels without being infected by it. The MB can't "fake" its commitment to democracy for an entire decade, sending everyone in its organization to talk about it endlessly, and painlessly go back on it. That doesn't mean reverting is impossible, it just means there is momentum not to. Say what you will about Yasser Arafat, but he talked a lot about democracy, and the PA is more democratic than, say, Egypt.

c) When secularists are tyrants, Islamists have inherent incentives to look upon democracy as a cure.

d) terrorism will continue in the ME, despite our friendly dictatorships, no matter how much tech we pump into them, until the political systems improve. Wipe out every Muslim radical group currently active and give the scene a decade and the problem will begin again.

The MB are the offer the only realistic possibility of a long-term beneficial solution, even if one doesn't trust them. I, for one, would hand Syria over to them in a heartbeat.

But if handing over is too easy, there's a lot that could be done to help bring them under a degree of US control.

Posted by: glasnost at March 8, 2007 06:14 AM

Zvi,

drastically overstated to the point of, being essentially, a lie.

I'm not saying that free and fair elections are the be-all and end-all of democracy, but there have been two of them in Palestine now. If you think the next one is going to be suppressed, come out and say so. If not, by ME standards, anything with free and fair elections is pretty good.

Hamas' internal organization structure isn't really relevant.

Posted by: glasnost at March 8, 2007 06:19 AM

Michael, I am sending a wish-it-could-be-larger PayPal contribution to encourage more reports like this one. It's the kind of information in English that I don't find anywhere else. Thank you.

Posted by: savtadotty at March 8, 2007 06:28 AM

I would like to thank everyone who responded to my initial post.

Posted by: leo at March 8, 2007 07:09 AM

"Yeah. And more than that, all the way up to and including using government black ops people to conduct terrorist attacks much more heinous than any occurring locally, for the express purpose of radicalizing, delegitimizing and tarnishing the opposition (see Algeria & the GIA)."

The GIA was a real terrorist organization. The government made a lot of paramilitaries of its own, some overt, some less so, but GIA was an actual group whose purpose was to carry out brutal attacks. The GIA was not an opposition group, it was a group of murders and rapists. FIS is a different story. But they nonetheless indulged the worst of the worst to start with; they would have delegitimized themselves if the government hadn't. Ultimately, the true character of a party is shown under stress; the FIS showed its true colors when its members started blowing up markets, taking young girls as sex slaves, and killing children. Those elements were there to start with and would have found their way onto the peoples' backs no matter what. Please do not confuse the real enemies with those made for propaganda matters, though your point is very valid and true.

Best, KNL.

Posted by: Nouri Lumendifi at March 8, 2007 06:55 PM

Yeah. And more than that, all the way up to and including using government black ops people to conduct terrorist attacks much more heinous than any occurring locally, for the express purpose of radicalizing, delegitimizing and tarnishing the opposition (see Algeria & the GIA).

Do you really expect me to believe that all of the bad stuff attributed to the Egyptian branch of the MB were false-flag ops?

Methinks you are being more than a bit naive... you have to look long and hard to find someone involved in mideast politics who doesn't have blood on their hands.

I'm not saying your position isn't reasonable, but you should reconsider, based on the following positions:

a) A non-native, non-authentic, non-mass-based installation of model democracy has no chance.

Tautological arguments are inherently flawed.

A democratic system that lacks the support of a majority of the electorate is not a democratic system.

b) You can't fake something at all levels without being infected by it.

You can't know that.

The MB can't "fake" its commitment to democracy for an entire decade, sending everyone in its organization to talk about it endlessly, and painlessly go back on it.

I have read at least one interview with a spokesmen who was sent to 'talk about it endlessly'. I was very unimpressed, because the interviewee didn't say anything meaningful. What would happen is the interviewer would ask a question about what would or would not be allowed if the MB was in charge, and the answer was invariably "The answer can be found on the Koran" or something roughly to that effect.

IMO, their goal is sharia in Egypt, which I consider undesirable.

That doesn't mean reverting is impossible, it just means there is momentum not to. Say what you will about Yasser Arafat, but he talked a lot about democracy, and the PA is more democratic than, say, Egypt.

Yasser Arafat was a master of saying one thing and doing something else entirely- which is very common behavior in the middle east.

I suspect the MB is more of the same.

As far as the PA and Egypt are concerned, I daresay you will find many Palestinians who would rather to live in Egypt than in PA territory, and very few Egyptians who want to live in the PA territory. This should tell you something.

c) When secularists are tyrants, Islamists have inherent incentives to look upon democracy as a cure.

Islamists do not look upon democracy as a cure for anything. They look upon Islam as the cure, this is what makes them Islamists.

d) terrorism will continue in the ME, despite our friendly dictatorships, no matter how much tech we pump into them, until the political systems improve. Wipe out every Muslim radical group currently active and give the scene a decade and the problem will begin again.

I agree that the political system is a major part of the problem, but I think you are underestimating both the effects of advanced technology and how long it takes for another generation of troublemakers to become a problem.

Take a look at the various movements in the middle east. Invariably, you have an old fart coming up with the strategy, giving the orders, and deciding who gets the money, middle-aged 'middle-management' types converting strategy into tactics, conveying the orders and distributing the money, and young dumb types throwing rocks and getting shot at (and getting a bit of cash for their trouble).

Get rid of the old farts and the middle-aged ones (and the money they distribute), and I'm pretty sure that most of the youngsters would rather chase girls than throw rocks.

The MB are the offer the only realistic possibility of a long-term beneficial solution, even if one doesn't trust them. I, for one, would hand Syria over to them in a heartbeat.

Yep. Very naive.

But if handing over is too easy, there's a lot that could be done to help bring them under a degree of US control.

Not really. They're islamists, we're infidels, we're not going to convert to islam, and they're not going to become apostate.

IMO, the best approach would be to pressure the Egyptian government to quit using the MB as a bogeyman, and to stop throwing real democratic activists in prison- and if they don't, we quit sending them checks*.

From where I'm sitting, it's a win-win approach.... We either get an Egypt that has a nascent democratic party, or we have a budget that is a few billion $ closer to being balanced.

*ps: why are we bribing the Egyptians to not start a war the Egyptians will lose?

Posted by: rosignol at March 8, 2007 07:14 PM

Do you really expect me to believe that all of the bad stuff attributed to the Egyptian branch of the MB were false-flag ops?

No, not all of it. The rest of it, by and large, wasn't the MB. It was different organizations with different names whose personnel for the most part don't overlap. This is certainly true for everything
past the 70's.

It's something I expect of people like Michael Smith to take, say, three opposition groups fighting against a government, two of which only targets soldiers, while the other one commits massacres, and say something like, "all a bunch of slavering dogs with no concept of 'cease-fire'",
but not from you, ros. When you're fighting said civil war, splinter groups are how people indicate their choices about what they think is right, vs. wrong, and that's about all they ever do. In Israel, that's why the Haganah went on to run the country while the Irgun and the Stern Gang withered away. They all fought behind the same basic goal - some morally and some immorally. Haganah didn't dissolve itself because Lehi slaughtered some Arabs, nor was it, frankly, obligated to. In the same way, and in roughly the same proportions, the MB has tens of thousands of people engaged in non-violent resistance in Egypt. They may or may not turn out to be interested in sharia, and it remains to be seen what that word will mean in their context, but they've pretty clearly disassociated themselves from armed conflict, much less terrorism. I don't think the current MB leadership has any blood on its hands. I await demonstrations to the contrary.

As far as the PA and Egypt are concerned, I daresay you will find many Palestinians who would rather to live in Egypt than in PA territory, and very few Egyptians who want to live in the PA territory. This should tell you something.

You can do better than this. It tells me that the PA is in an unstable war zone, whereas Egypt doesn't get invaded by the IDF every other month. That was a neat way of failing to acknowledge my point - that the PA was run by a guy who, however he turned out not to be Nelson Mandela, basically endorsed democracy and has, probably not a coincidence, left behind a less tyrannical government than in Egypt.

IMO, the best approach would be to pressure the Egyptian government to quit using the MB as a bogeyman, and to stop throwing real democratic activists in prison- and if they don't, we quit sending them checks*.

I basically agree with this. As Mike's interview hints at, though, you'll soon find the democrats and the islamists in bed together, because, more so than the MB and Egyptian Islamic Jihad, they overlap.

Once you stop sending Egypt checks, though, you basically have to go all the way and demand democracy/protect the opposition. If you just sever ties, there's a good chance Egypt pulls a Saddamn to stay in power.
The situation will be a lot like pre-revolution Iran, which we mishandled by holding onto the Shah for dear life with no Plan B, instead of building a relationship with the opposition five years in advance, which might have kept Khomeini's hands off the wheel to begin with - even if it was only a trade for some other Islamist ready to work with the US - they were available.

Posted by: glasnost at March 9, 2007 08:33 AM

The situation will be a lot like pre-revolution Iran, which we mishandled by holding onto the Shah for dear life with no Plan B, instead of building a relationship with the opposition five years in advance, which might have kept Khomeini's hands off the wheel to begin with - even if it was only a trade for some other Islamist ready to work with the US...

We're allied with 'Islamists who are willing to work with us' in Saudi Arabia and that's not going very well. The Sauds send their money to the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Brotherhood sends that money to al Qaeda and Hamas.

With Islamists, you have the violent ones who openly want to destroy us and then we have the 'nonviolent' ones who are supporting the violent ones. We don't really work with either of them.

Posted by: mary at March 9, 2007 03:46 PM

We're allied with 'Islamists who are willing to work with us' in Saudi Arabia and that's not going very well.

This is not a good example. Backing Islamic dictators is not within the paradigm I'm talking about, which is using non-terrorist Islamists to bring down dictators, and use their need of our help to muscle through democratic reforms. Islamic dictators have no place in said paradigm, in Saudi Arabia or anywhere else.

Posted by: glasnost at March 13, 2007 10:48 AM

This is not a good example. Backing Islamic dictators is not within the paradigm I'm talking about, which is using non-terrorist Islamists to bring down dictators, and use their need of our help to muscle through democratic reforms. Islamic dictators have no place in said paradigm, in Saudi Arabia or anywhere else.

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