Michael J. Totten: The End of the Arab Bismarckian Era

March 05, 2007

The End of the Arab Bismarckian Era

Tony Badran translated (from Arabic) Ali Hamade’s most recent column from Beirut’s An Nahar newspaper about the winding down of Syria’s imperial project in Lebanon.

Regardless of the results of the Saudi-Iranian summit, there is an essential constant that will not change anytime soon: the era of the Arab Bismarck is over. The Arab Bismarck is of course a reference to the late Syrian president Hafez Assad, who was dubbed by some in the press as the would-be Bismarck of the Arabs, in reference to the Prussian statesman who unified the three hundred feuding German principalities, and led a unified Germany to victory over France under Napoleon III in the war of 1870, stripping it of the Alsace and Lorraine.
Hafez Assad got the title the Bismarck of the Arabs in a decisive and final manner after his total overtaking of Lebanon in 1990, and after getting exclusive mandate to implement the Taef Accord.

At the time, some extremists went as far as considering that Assad managed after 75 years to shred the Sykes-Picot agreement and avenge for Greater Syria, which was stripped of the four districts and Mount Lebanon itself. And in the fits of extremism in those days, it was said that the train of Arab unity had taken off starting with Syria's de facto annexation of Lebanon and from Assad's success in gathering several regional cards in his hands to cement the "imperial" basis of Assadist Syria. In other words, he managed to launch his imperial stage beginning with his "crown jewel," Lebanon.
When president Bashar Assad inherited Syria and Lebanon from his father in 2000, after the Israeli withdrawal, he did not inherit a "unified Germany," à la Bismarck, as it seemed. Rather, he inherited from his father a dominion similar to the Austrian empire of the early 20th century, which was comprised of Austria and Hungary, and whose separation was a matter of time. The first World War came to hasten that separation and mark the end of the empire.

Read the rest at Across the Bay.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at March 5, 2007 11:29 PM

Comments

The thing about the Prussian Bismarck is that he had some help. There's this guy named Helmuth Karl Bernhard von Moltke http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmuth_von_Moltke_the_Elder you really ought to know about. While politically the Arabs have fielded some remarkably astute individuals, militarily they haven't fielded anyone remotely as capable as Moltke the Elder in the modern era.

Even Lawrence admits that his capacity was based on accomplishing victory through indigenous raiding capacity. He did something different with the tools at hand, he did not develop new tools and change them over time as Moltke did.

Unless and until the Arabs are able to develop a modern capacity to change and grow militarily on their own, their Bismarcks will be forever frustrated. Thankfully, the development of modern technology better suits volunteer armies of free peoples.

Posted by: Patrick S Lasswell at March 6, 2007 11:28 AM

It is worth noting that Moltke the Elder was a classic liberal and only accomplished the legacy he did because he maintained an open mind.

Posted by: Patrick S Lasswell at March 6, 2007 11:37 AM

"The Arab Bismarck!" Pretty vivid metaphor except I think the Arab Milosevic might be more accurate.

Posted by: Pat Patterson at March 6, 2007 03:59 PM

A good metaphor.
What's the difference between Bismarck and Milosevic except the era, really? That, and one succeeded, and one got waxed.

Posted by: glasnost at March 6, 2007 10:07 PM

glasnost,

Bismarck had much better subordinates than Milosevic.
Bismarck unified a buildup, Milosevic slowed a disintegration.
Bismarck's nation experienced prestige and cultural growth during his tenure, Milosevic's nation diminished in culture and prestige.
Bismarck was a much snappier dresser.

Posted by: Patrick S Lasswell at March 6, 2007 10:22 PM

Milosovic was also more of an asshole.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at March 7, 2007 12:17 AM

I could have sworn I was alluding to Bashar Assad and Milosevic not Bismarck and Milosevic.

Posted by: Pat Patterson at March 7, 2007 04:19 AM

Bashar is an ass, but I don't think he's on par with Milo. Saddam is probably more comparable. Bashar really hasn't done anything worth comparing to Milo at all.

Posted by: Nouri Lumendifi at March 8, 2007 06:58 PM

Milosevic instigated a series of wars and managed to completely dismember Yugoslavia. Bashar Assad didn't even fight a war and lost Greter Syria.

Posted by: Pat Patterson at March 8, 2007 09:50 PM

澳大利亚
 澳大利亚移民
 澳洲移民

压力开关
 压力变送器
 压力传感器
 流量开关
 流量计
 液位计
 液位开关
 温湿度记录仪
 风速仪
 差压开关
 可燃气体检测仪