Michael J. Totten: Deal or no deal?

December 11, 2006

Deal or no deal?

It is perhaps too early to discuss the so-called Arab initiative, which has reportedly won Hizbullah's and Assad's support. That this "breakthrough" was announced in Damascus, and not in Beirut, speaks volumes about what these protests were really about.

"I have received confirmation from the brothers in Syria that they (support)...Lebanese consensus and support our efforts," Ismail, a Sudanese presidential adviser, said after talks with President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus.

Ismail was expected in Beirut later in the day for talks with Lebanese leaders. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa would join him in the Lebanese capital on Tuesday.

Syria's backing is seen as essential in forging any compromise in Lebanon. Though its troops left the country more than 18 months ago, Damascus still wields influence on many groups, the most powerful of which is the pro-Syrian Hezbollah. (Reuters)

This last paragraph by Reuters is straight out of one of "brother" Bashar Assad's dreams: "Syria", "Essential", "Lebanon". Assad must think himself important and "yielding influence" again. Only let's not get ahead of ourselves. There is no "deal" yet, and, unlike what some people are already predicting, nobody has been declared winner, especially not Hizbullah, Aoun and the Assad regime.

Let us start by dispelling the illusion propagated and will be propagated by some Aounists, who believe their street parades won them seats in a "national unity government"—seats that were offered to them without the need to go through Hizbullah and Damascus. If anything, and as many of us suspected, the protests proved that the "national unity government" demand was a façade for a power grab. The only people who still believe the pro-Syrian camp were really asking for a "national unity government" are the wire agencies, usually forced to attach formulaic background information to every action reported.

Last time I checked, Aoun didn't even want to be associated with this government, expanded or not, so crying victory now or tomorrow is strange, insulting and idiotic. As for Hizbullah, and considering that Nasrallah has accused Siniora of treason, anything short of the prime minister's assassination cannot constitute real victory for God's alleged party. As for Berri, he must be enjoying his new completely discredited self. Even Siniora is now saying that the parliament has been "hijacked".

In fact, the few details that emerged about the negotiations indicate that they revolve around ideas proposed by PM Siniora before the protests, but were ignored: expansion of the cabinet to comprise 19 pro-March 14, 9 pro-opposition and 1 neutral. Siniora had proposed two neutral members with no voting powers, so not to block or paralyze the cabinet with every political dispute.

The negotiations will probably revolve around the identity and role of the neutral minister, and whether March 14 or Hizbullah/Aoun would name him. There are other details: the tribunal, early presidential elections, parliamentary elections, etc. This means that 11 days of protests did absolutely nothing of positive value for the country and we are essentially back where we left off.

What we do have some 11 days into the occupation of downtown Beirut, is an economy in shambles, businesses that lost millions of dollars, another ruined tourist season, and deepening of sectarian divisions.

But if the protests did nothing to advance the talks between Lebanese "parties", did they benefit the Assad regime? I don't know if it was pragmatism that sent the Arab League to Damascus, and I am clearly not privy to what transpired there. The Saudis, Egyptians and Jordanians have nearly divorced the Syrian regime. The flaky regime and its cohorts have certainly not succeeded in toppling the government. And what appears to be regained influence for Damascus could very well be Damascus being told to quit using the country as a chess board. The envoy made it clear that the basis for any settlement should be "no victor and no vanquished".

But it almost appears as if Hizbullah and Aoun wanted to bring Syria back into the equation. Siniora's proposal had to go through Damascus first, and Damascus was given the opportunity to demonstrate its strength in the country. Sectarian divisions in the country almost always benefit the Assad regime, which has a record in manipulating them. No wonder that immediately after the announcement, Siniora asked Ismail to return to Beirut.

I will await the results of the Arab League sponsored negotiations to lay the final judgment. If Syria now sees itself party to the talks, expect murder and other forms of intimidation, although one could argue that the protests offered an ideal pressure tool. Murdering an entire country, after all, is better than murdering one official.

Posted by Abu Kais at December 11, 2006 09:39 AM

Comments

Me thinks the Syrians will use this 'development' to send a clear message to those watching. The will use this opportunity to say that not only can they stir up trouble in Lebanon, but if they are engaged, they can bring peace too. In short, the Syrians are using the same strategy they used 30 years ago, no modifications, no alterations. First stir up sectarian strife through political and sectarian assassinations and mysterious, random bombings, then they step in as the saviours.

Posted by: Blacksmith Jade at December 11, 2006 12:15 PM

Sectarian divisions in the country almost always benefit the Assad regime, which has a record in manipulating them.

Yes. Hurrah, the light dawns.

Thus we have in a very nice, one-sentence bubble the argument for the minimum force, minumum-inflammation approach to this affair to begin with.

Posted by: glasnost at December 11, 2006 02:30 PM

Thus we have in a very nice, one-sentence bubble the argument for the minimum force, minumum-inflammation approach to this affair to begin with.

And how! Now, glasnost, if you would just get yourself out amongst the Hezbollah and tell them that.

Posted by: nichevo at December 11, 2006 02:49 PM

It's the eocnomy, stupid!!
Sorry, I made a mistake.
It's the Greater Syria dream, stupid!
Lebanon, poor Lebanon............

Posted by: diana at December 11, 2006 05:16 PM

Shocking news!!

Looks like the Ismail/Arab League mission failed, according to "L'Orient".

Posted by: JoseyWales at December 11, 2006 05:31 PM

Really good to see the Sudanese regime involved since it is so good at implementing...I mean, resolving sectarian genocide.

Posted by: ankhfkhonsu at December 11, 2006 06:59 PM

Mr. Kais you missed the real story!

Hezbollah is demanding 1/3 of the seats plus one.

That would give Hezbollah the power to bring down the government any and every time! It would also give them absolute veto power.

They're demanding a coup, nothing less.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 11, 2006 07:04 PM

I deleted my entire post, since I do not want to taunt, or to endorse anything. Let me just ask, could anyone have expected anything different?

Posted by: nichevo at December 11, 2006 07:48 PM

Quote: "Mr. Kais you missed the real story!

Hezbollah is demanding 1/3 of the seats plus one."

Where do you people get you info from?

This is what was demanded originally:

30 Ministers

19 Feb 14th
3 Hizballah
3 Amal
5 FPM.

The third will be held by 3 different opposition parties. They may agree on some issues, and diasgree about others. This is a government of national unity.

So many people in blog land truely believe that Lebanese history only commenced on 14th Feb 2005.

The demo's proved that if new elections where to be held, the 14th Group will be destroyed. They would have been destroyed at the last elections had it not been for their use of the Syrian Intelligence election law.

Dear Mr Totten and others, please comment about these points in your blog sometime:
The 14th Feb being essential a gathering of feudal/warlords.

The use of the 2000 Election law and the quardraparite alliance.

The suspension of the Constitutional Council.

Whilst you are off in your regional fantasy world, you are seriously neglecting internal Lebanese considerations. It is in this space that you may actually understand where the FPM is coming from.

R.B

Posted by: Robert Bekhazi at December 11, 2006 07:55 PM

Where do you people get you info from?

In this case NPR (National Public Radio).

If it makes you feel better, the reporter tried to spin the story to be sympathetic to Hezbollah.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 11, 2006 09:37 PM

So unless NPR is wrong, Hezbollah has moved past its original demand.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 11, 2006 09:40 PM

So unless NPR is wrong,

...which is certainly possible.

Is there another source confirming it?

Posted by: rosignol at December 12, 2006 12:26 AM

hey meachel totten, if you are in lebanon for about a year doesnt mean that it makes you an expert of lebanese politics, u better stop spreading false propaganda, you are critisizing the syrian regime of being totalitarian and dictatorian, actually you are doing the same thing by marginalizing an opinion that represents more than half the lebanese population, where is the democracy Mr. totten?
and it is a big insult for this same population when u accuse her for being syrian or iranian just to let the other party appear more lebanese which is not true, i actually wouldnt have big problem with the other party in lebanon if it wasnt corrupted and spreading hates and fear among the lebanese people, and i cant forgive this party for being a syrian puppet for 15 years against lebanese will and now a puppet for another force and i dont care from where this force comes, i also cant tolarate her for the current econimical situation in lebanon, the 40$ billion debt.
sorry but they must all resign and we will live in peace i assure mr. totten.

Posted by: sandra at December 12, 2006 09:17 AM

They're demanding a coup, nothing less.

Josh, not to pick nits here, but isn't one-third of the seats plus one still less than a majority?

Historically, coups are an act of seizing control of a government. A coup that leaves 64% of the legislature in the hands of the other team isn't a coup. It would more accurately be described as a blocking minority.

Posted by: glasnost at December 12, 2006 10:27 AM

Is Lebanon's parliament still in session?

If not, which officials/entities have the authority to convene a session?

Posted by: mrp at December 12, 2006 12:13 PM

Josh, not to pick nits here, but isn't one-third of the seats plus one still less than a majority?

In the Lebanese system, it takes a no-confidence vote of 1 plus over 1/3 to bring down the government.

They also said that a 1/3 +1 minority can veto legislation.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 12, 2006 01:02 PM

And as should be apparent, if they had majority power, they would have responsibility to actively, creatively, positively govern. This negative minority control gives them exactly what they want - the power to destroy.

Posted by: nichevo at December 12, 2006 01:10 PM

Their demands haven't changed. HIzballah/Amal are not demanding 1 third on there own. It will also require FPM to vote with them for 1 third. It was always

19 14th Feb
3 Hizballah
3 Amal
5 FPM

National Public radio, I listen it to from here, they are better than most media, but still have very little idea what is happening on the ground in Lebanon.

Much Like Abu Kais, who is so caught up in regional power play scenario's, he is massively neglecting internal Lebanese issues.

I uderstand that the same people (Jumblatt, Seniora etc) who used to play for the Syrians are now playing for the US agenda for the area. The question is , what internal agenda are they covering with the support they get in report?

Tell us AbuKais a little bit abou these issues:

The use of the Syrian Intelligence manufactured election law to obtain a majority.
The election alliance they had with Hizballah
The suspension of the constitutional court (the equivalent of the US Supreme Court)
The endemic corruption practised by members of the government for so long.

R.B

Posted by: R.B at December 13, 2006 03:17 AM

It's quite common for the government of a small and relatively weak nation to cultivate a relationship with the US as a way to reduce the influence of that nation's stronger neighbors.

The US's goals in Lebanon are simple and quite straightforward: counteract Iranian and Syrian influence in Lebanon and minimize the chances of Lebanese and Israelis shooting at each other.

Posted by: rosignol at December 13, 2006 07:25 AM

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