December 09, 2006

Assad regime to kill Berri if he convenes parliament

By Abu Kais

The Assad regime is in a hurry. Nasrallah hasn’t been able to deliver quickly enough. The Grand Serail is a fortress, and the Lebanese street is slowly turning against the protestors, who don’t even have safe passage back to their homes now. The orders from the Dark Lord’s council are to pack more people in downtown Beirut, and as soon as possible. The plan to occupy or lay siege to the Rafik Hariri International airport seems to be in full swing, although the Lebanese army will reportedly not allow it.

What’s the hurry for?

This sunday, the 15-day time limit for Lahoud to sign the Hariri tribunal plan expires. As of Monday, the cabinet can constitutionally send it to parliament for endorsement.

Nabih Berri is in a pickle. He was forced to declare the cabinet session that approved the tribunal unconstitutional after telling journalists days before, that it wasn’t. On Wednesday, when it appeared that there was a dim hope of reaching a settlement, the speaker of parliament received a death threat from Maher Assad, Bashar’s brother. According to al-Seyassah, Assad threatened to kill Berri if he calls parliament into session to approve the plan (Again, al-Seyassah is to be read with a grain of salt, although they've gotten it right in the past with regards to Lebanon. In any case, this isn't the first time we've heard this.)

That’s how Lahoud’s term was extended, by threatening even pro-Syrian ministers who hated Lahoud (including Suleiman Franjieh). And that’s how the Syrian security regime worked in Lebanon—a regime that Nasrallah found no shame praising during his infamous speech that followed the threat to Berri. In that speech, Nasrallah challenged his opponents to find him one incident where a protestor was killed on his way back from a protest during the Syrian reign. Aounists must have found this funny, or let it go over their heads like the many sick jokes and embarrassing insults their Napoleonic leader utters every day. They, of all people, should know how many of them were taken to Syrian jails, how many were tortured, killed, and threatened because they dared protest when protests weren’t even allowed. And why bring up the deep past when the recent past bears testimony to the murders committed by the Assad regime—a regime Nasrallah considers better than the Siniora government. So good that he thanked the Syrian army for its sacrifices in Lebanon less than a month after Hariri was killed.

Pretty soon, there will be no one left to remind Nasrallah’s worshippers of all these crimes. Not when Assad is allowed to complete the plan to assassinate anyone who speaks, let alone protests, against Hizbullah’s second favorite regime.

Posted by Abu Kais at December 9, 2006 06:54 AM
Comments

Abu Kais, I assume we should also take this report from "Al Seyassah" with a grain of salt?

Posted by: Lira at December 9, 2006 07:56 AM

Spider's web...

Posted by: Emma at December 9, 2006 08:05 AM

Sure, Lira. It's not like they didn't get it right before. And, I've heard more than one politician say Berri is "under pressure" or being threatened. That and the regime's precedents, it seems quite plausible to me.

Of course, this is not to justify Berri's behavior. It certainly does not change my opinion of him. It's just to demonstrate how far the regime would go-- killing its own allies in the country.

Posted by: Abu Kais at December 9, 2006 08:16 AM

Killing Berri might be a good thing. Maybe Amal will be forced to cut its ties with Syria, just as the FM did when Hariri was killed. Plus it would be an occasion to put a March 14 speaker of parliament.

Posted by: Enough BS at December 9, 2006 09:31 AM

Abu Kais,

A couple of questions:

1)You say: This Sunday, the 15-day time limit for Lahoud to sign the Hariri tribunal plan expires.

So according to the constitution, the only choice Lahoud has is to sign it or not sign it?

2) You say: ... the Lebanese street is slowly turning against the protestors, who don’t even have safe passage back to their homes now.

Who or what threatens the protestors if they return home now?

And thanks for guest-hosting this site. Very nice work.

Posted by: mrp at December 9, 2006 09:47 AM

mrp,

1/ According to the consitution:

"The President of the Republic, after consultation with the Council of Ministers, has the right to request the reconsideration of a law once during the period prescribed for its promulgation. This request may not be refused. When the President exercises this right, he is not required to promulgate
this law until it has been reconsidered and approved by an absolute majority of all the members legally composing the Chamber. If the time limits pass without the law being issued or returned, the law is considered legally operative and must be promulgated."

Just today, Lahoud sent the text back to the cabinet "for reviewing as soon as a constitutional and legitimate cabinet is formed". He knows there's nothing he can do if the cabinet approves the text again, so now he claims it is unconstitutional, which is hogwash.

He knows the cabinet will send it to parliament with or without his approval.

2/Angry residents, mostly Sunnis, aren't happy with hordes of Hizbullah supporters hurling insults at their leaders on their way home from downtown Beirut. Clashes are being reported throughout the city.

Hope this helps.

Posted by: Abu Kais at December 9, 2006 10:18 AM

Abu Kais,

Thank you for the timely response. That was helpful.

Posted by: mrp at December 9, 2006 10:50 AM

If you have noticed, Berri at the beginning (he was in Kuwait) said that the government is constitutional (after the Shia ministers resigned). Later he reversed himself (after he got the warning). Syria by killing Berri, will eliminate another shia and will be Nasrallah the only shia leader! Second, it will ignite a Sunni-Shi3i war and third, the parliament will not meet to approve the tribunal.

Posted by: Ghassan at December 9, 2006 11:56 AM

You are really mixing past with present. You are just picking elements from the past that suit your argument.
Hariri&Co + US were supportive of Syrian tutelage since 1990.
And since Syria refused the invasion of Iraq, that US started to talk about democracy and stuff.
Enough hypocrisy.
Aoun and Nasrallah are the only leaders that are calling for early elections...

Posted by: ross at December 9, 2006 12:33 PM

You poor people are so screwed. I wonder if you realize it. There is no escape as long as the people who want peace in Lebanon aren't willing to annihilate the people who don't want peace in Lebanon. Or "can't," whatever. Well, lots of luck. Do you really think talking and legal processes will get you anywhere? Who cares?

Take all these Hez demonstrators, pour gasoline over them and light a match. Every last one, women and children and old people if they brought any, doctors and reporters and clerics. Kill every last one of them. Then we'll know you're serious.

Alternately, somebody in Lebanon has to have enough money to privately hire assassins to kill Assad. No?

Didn't think so. Well, like I said, lots of luck. This is entirely irrelevant to whether Israel, America, France, whoever becomes involved. Go ahead, kill some peacekeepers, nobody cares. Go ahead, kill some Israelis, no one cares for sure.

Maybe you see a way out. Please tell us about it. Me, I think your country is dead, it just hasn't stopped twitching or making pretty political speeches yet.

Why don't you just give up? You obviously will not fight.

Posted by: nichevo at December 9, 2006 03:53 PM

Nichevo sounds like a left-winger pretending to be extreme right-wing. I smell troll.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 9, 2006 04:19 PM

DP I don't think so, he sounds like a real hawk.

Note, the Hawk vs. wimp axis runs orthogonal to most of the other supposed right/left axis. I voted for Nader, twice, but I'm a hawk and I think he made some sense. The problem with what he said is that it ISN'T a matter of a local dispute if Iran and Syria are backing Hezbollah. Can Lebanon get it's out from under Iran's boot without help?

Anyway left vs. right is absolute bullshit.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 9, 2006 04:53 PM

Anyway left vs. right is absolute bullshit.

Only in the US, where politics uses a different measuring system. The rest of us are on metric, and find the right/left distinctions useful.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 9, 2006 05:34 PM

DP I grew up in Canada and I disagree.

One problem is that traditionally right vs. left contains maybe five axis squished together, and various parts of those various axes (over various issues) get switched off periodically not only between parties but even between populations who claim to be left or right.

There's no way to pretend that five dimensions are one, it's just nonsense.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 9, 2006 05:55 PM

One problem is that traditionally right vs. left contains maybe five axis squished together...

Nope, the left-right thing is an axis of its own, and are based on organization of society. Right wingers see the individual pursuit of needs as providing the best possible society while leftists see mutual aid and cooperation as providing the best society. And that's all there really is to it.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 9, 2006 06:11 PM

Wow, I've confused the Gweat and Tewwibwe DPU? A day to mark with a white stone.

Maybe I am a troll, I dunno. I was quite sincere in saying that Leb is screwed. Hez WILL take over. Who is stopping them? Sweet reason? Western dialectic? The strong right arm of Arnold Evans? All through the recent Hez-Israel war the Lebs were whining they couldn't do anything about Hez. I'm sure they're right. So they won't, they will try to cut deals and be murdered last.

France will do nothing. If sufficiently shamed, might evacuate a few thousand Christians.

Israel, what can they do? If they support Siniora it's because he's their puppet, right?

The US? Great. Who or what should we kill, pay or rebuild?

The UN? Not unless they can rape some Leb kids first.

So who's stopping them? A man with a salad fork who wants to see the color of your insides is going to win nine out of ten over the guy with the .45, the M-16, the Abrams tank, the F-22 fighter, the Aegis cruiser and the W-80 nuclear warhead, but who can't stand the sight of blood.

And even if, at the last, the Leb army would fight, they haven't the strength to put on a show of force. Israel or the US have a sufficient overmatch of forces to do shock-and-awe type demonstrations to show just how bad you can get creamed; what could the Lebs possibly, in the best of all possible worlds, do? Do they even have an air force capable of hitting a man on the ground like Nasrallah? So if they do stand, it will be long and messy and they will have every disadvantage.

What the Lebs COULD do is: swallow their pride, and start informing on the Hez, systematically, thoroughly, for Western combined-arms strikes.

The one thing Western forces need to operate in the Middle East that they have trouble getting is local intelligence on the ground. I am pretty confident that Leb forces, and Leb civilians for that matter, have enough info to pass to Israel, the US, the UN, whoever, to ensure that the right people get pasted.

No doubt there would be human shield type deals, GPS malfunctions, scores paid off, etc. There would just have to be an agreement to ignore that kind of thing, or to figure out some way of dealing with it.

But that will not happen because it seems that one thing Arabs cannot do is swallow their pride. (I don't think they've earned much, but that's only my opinion.) The fact is, they seem to have it, and will not let go of it, so such cooperation will be rare. No, Leb will have to fight this one out themselves.

Good luck, fellas. I feel awful for innocent and decent people there who will be the first to die. Even if you oppose Israel and the West - your system has made you stupid, it's not your fault, if I were brought up under brainwashing like yours I'd probably agree with you. You were screwed from birth, you haven't a chance.

Go ahead and kneel to Hez, at least they're people like you so it shouldn't be as "humiliating" when they punk you. Try and be invisible; say nothing, do nothing, have no opinions, be picked last. Ask for nothing, offer nothing, try to escape. Trust no one.

Meanwhile do whatever you're told, it'll hurt less if they don't have to force you to comply. Just like being raped. Go ahead, pick the less important members of your family to sacrifice to them, or they'll take whoever they want anyway, and hurt or kill others. Maybe only one son or daughter will be forced to throw bottles of gasoline at Israeli tanks, or wear a suicide belt, or smuggle drugs in a body cavity.

Perhaps with enough cringing servility and mindless obedience, you can be provided with the opportunity to exploit and harm people weaker than yourselves. Then you will feel much better; you will be able to pretend you are getting back against the people who really oppress you. At least, you can take it out on them. Don't bother with mercy, no one will show any to you. They never have, right?

In short, don't change a thing. Just go on as you have always done for thousands of years. Really, you are quite perfect for the environment in which you live. Anyone trying to change that is quite foolish.

Again, those who disagree will really never be happy there and should leave just as fast as your feet can carry you.

PS What is the right vs left axis on this matter anyhow? Is there an orthodox left vs right position? I can only imagine that the left wants whatever is bad for the West and frankly, at this point I can't figure that out. This is really only bad for Leb.

PPS Josh, what of the local vs. whoever issue? Again, nobody will stand up to Iran either. Really, it is silly to act against Syria when Iran is the problem. For the West anyway; Lebs might be able to save themselves in the short run by neutralizing Syria.

Israel? They will wait till matters are clearer; and of course they will never pre-empt; but when the new Hez Nation starts firing, they will just let loose with area weapons until it stops.

Actually, their first priority should be to neutralize local and world media. I suggest killing, but they may like to capture or control some journalists. It might be easier to attack news bureaus than field reporters or fotogs, but all as possible. They need a smart weapon that homes in on anything with a lens. Anything that is being filmed is probably something you want to kill anyway - Hez speeches, rallies, military formations most likely.

The media is not our friend. But it pays no penalty for being our enemy. Really, how long can it be before somebody truck-bombs a Reuters or AP office? On either side; despite all the bootlicking it still seems (just barely) possible for media to offend the bad guys.

But that - now that's fantasy. No one (on the West's side) will ever do anything about the media. Not sure why, but I'd bet the house on it. Rather get all our throats cut.

Nope, no help there. Back to Leb internecine strife without end as a helpless Iranian catspaw. Roll tape.

Posted by: nichevo at December 9, 2006 06:11 PM

Maybe I am a troll, I dunno.Maybe I am a troll, I dunno

Well, you sound like an unhinged left-winger trying to sound like an unhinged fascist. Apologies for the misinterpretation.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 9, 2006 06:18 PM

Well then, DPU, why don't we skip the part where you try to pigeonhole me, and move right along to analysis of the thoughts and implications?

Do you disagree that nobody can - skip "can" - nobody WILL stop Hez?

Do you disagree that it will lead to hell in Lebanon? (Or do you think they are maxed out on hell over there and it can only turn a different flavor but get no worse?)

Do you disagree that, more than modern weapons, modern politico-media tactics a la "Rules for Radicals" have ensured that Hez and their backers will get all the good press? And that good press probably matters more in this conflict than the weapons?

Being a troll implies that I have said something with which you patently disagree. What would that be, exactly?

Posted by: nichevo at December 9, 2006 06:26 PM

Well then, DPU, why don't we skip the part where you try to pigeonhole me, and move right along to analysis of the thoughts and implications?

Sure. Let's look at this.

Take all these Hez demonstrators, pour gasoline over them and light a match. Every last one, women and children and old people if they brought any, doctors and reporters and clerics. Kill every last one of them.

Not too many people embrace the burning-children-alive ideology. Kudos.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 9, 2006 06:43 PM

Nichevo, you have made your point, and it's crude and unacceptable. So scram.

Posted by: Abu Kais at December 9, 2006 06:53 PM

Oh, is that what you got hung up on? Ha, ha, ha.

Well, while I do in reality think necklacing (I left out the used tire, of course) would be a little, uh, over-inflammatory, it IS an approved Leftist tactic, so now I understand your confusion!

Sorry about that. No, and you probably wouldn't like shooting them all, or even some of them, either. Well, the great thing about massacring them as comprehensively as possible is that you pretty much have all the eggs in one basket - how many Shia could be left after you wipe out this "million" people?

And this would be all the angry, armed ones, and the dupes most likely to take them seriously. The fact that they probably do have women and children there is exactly in proportion to their estimation that violence will not be used. In other words, they read you like a comic book.

No, no, I know it's not nice! Right, the US, or Israel, or even probably France, could never get away with it. HOWEVER - it would seem to be SOP for that region of the world. Ask Syria if that sounds like a good idea for dealing with problem people. Or, you could just ask the dead of Hama, if they could answer you. Ask Jordan. Ask Egypt. Ask just about anyone around.

After all, Western ideals and ideas and democracy and freedom are bad, right? Unrealistic, right? Self-interested, right? So let them do it their way.

Oh all right - any kind of dispersal of this mob would have at least some salutary effect, as long as it was prompt and effective. But riot gas and fire hoses and such, they don't really cut it anymore. The very fact that say a few hundred dead in the process would lose you is emblematic of the problem we face.

Do you think Hezbollah would hesitate to kill a few hundred people at any time if it served their purpose? The exact notion of a little healthy state-sponsored bloodletting is exactly what, IMHO, would work, and exactly what you can't stomach.

You are the guy who can't stand the sight or even the thought of blood. That's why, in any world other than the Web one, you would lose to the guy who likes the sight, smell, sound of his enemy's guts hitting the sidewalk. Even if you have an arsenal and he has a salad fork...or a boxcutter...or sufficiently long fingernails.

You would lose, and since so many decent people are in fact hampered by semantic reactions such as yours, they would lose too. That is why Lebanon will lose. Never mind necklacing, they won't disperse that crowd by any means harsher than Pretty please. Should they try, odds are they'll botch it. That is also why you will never see such a mob in Syria.

Posted by: nichevo at December 9, 2006 06:59 PM

Sorry, Abu Kais, I did not see your request before I finished posting to DPU.

Certainly my point was crude, I wished to be clear to the meanest understanding and to strip the gloss off. I am sorry if I hurt your feelings.

I do, however, maintain that I see no way for you to regain control of the situation. I really do wish you luck. I just don't see any reason why Hezbollah should stop doing what works so well for them, or how you would stop them.

I see a lot of posting from you but I see nothing that I regard as hopeful. Please prove me wrong. But since I have, as you say, made my point, it is probably unkind to belabor the obvious past your ability to bear. Just, for the record, it's not the Israelis or the West, as far as I can tell, doing this to you, so you really will have to find new people to hate and not to forgive.

Posted by: nichevo at December 9, 2006 07:05 PM

Wow, this is the biggest troll I've seen all day. End of conversation, nichevo. Buu-bye now.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 9, 2006 07:05 PM

The DPU chased off? Mirabile dictu! Long may it last.

But I think our host would prefer it anyhow were I not to disturb him any further. I can be so glib because the issue does not really affect me; I can predict this horror without any thought of how it will affect my immediate family; it is not my nightmare, but his.

I truly am sorry, Abu Kais. I hope you and your people can find a way out.

Posted by: nichevo at December 9, 2006 07:09 PM

A man with a salad fork who wants to see the color of your insides is going to win nine out of ten over the guy with the .45, the M-16, the Abrams tank, the F-22 fighter, the Aegis cruiser and the W-80 nuclear warhead, but who can't stand the sight of blood.

thought I'd lift that...

thx

Posted by: Rubin at December 9, 2006 07:23 PM

I can hardly claim to have invented the concept, Rubin, but if you like my phrasing, enjoy.

Posted by: nichevo at December 9, 2006 07:26 PM

Abu Kais, do you know what the western MSM is now calling the Siniora cabinet? They are starting to call it the "rump" cabinet. Read up on the Lord Protector, Oliver Cromwell, on what that means. The MSM is sliding headlong into support for Hezbollah.

BTW, every man, woman, and child in Lebanon is standing on the "red line".

Posted by: mrp at December 9, 2006 07:30 PM

Sad to say, my analysis concluded that Berri was the next logical target two weeks ago. As Nasrallah's speech may have backfired and even split the Shia community, killing Berri must look very tempting, even without the tribunal plan. I suppose people are waiting for the parliamentary session to see Berri's true colors, yet even if Berri does exactly what Nasrallah wants, he may still be "dead man walking".

There is, however, another possibility. If Berri pushes through the tribunal plan quickly, why shouldn't the Syrians decide their best possible outcome will be to let Berri live and target somebody else?

Nasrallah hasn’t been able to deliver quickly enough.

Yes. Blame everything on Nasrallah, convince the Iranians to elevate another puppet to lead Hezbollah, and cut a deal with the tribunal. They'll always find a way to blame Nasrallah's timely demise on the Israelis, right?

In the meantime, Berri had better watch out, I suppose. Nowadays bombs and guns are out, poison is in. Watch out for strange things that come free with the breakfast cereal?

Posted by: Solomon2 at December 9, 2006 08:36 PM

Nichevo's point is clear and simple-- fight or die. Clear enough? And if that makes him a troll, what a bunch of panty waste wusses some of you people are.

Posted by: Carlos at December 9, 2006 10:11 PM

Nichevo:

a) The "West", is not holding back on carpet-bombing Hizballah, Syria, and Iran because of a regrettable lack of Lebanese informants. It's holding back because there's a limit to which it can suppress the cognitive dissonance of sending peoples in the region to a bright, democratic future through the cross-hairs of 1000-lb. bombs.

b) Despite your godlike powers of clairvoyance, about the Rwandan genocide coming to Lebanon, life in Lebanon has basically been better when it various factions have avoided trying to massacre each other and worse when they haven't, in fact, tried to avoid it. In other words, Rwanda comes to life when people adopt your foul worldview and equally foul advice.

c) Syrian influence on Lebanon isn't going away barring a regime change that isn't going to happen, anymore than US support for our friendly thugs in Latin America is in any way permanently over. Nevertheless, life in Lebanon can get either better or worse. Syria and Hizballah act under constraints. The goal is to gradually increase those constraints: your scenario would set them free. Your nihilism is fundamentally unserious and irresponsible. You're just another World War IV freak, a Western version of Osama.

d) You're not truly sorry about anything. You're a fuc*ing concern troll. Your sorriness is one thread thick behind your obvious contempt and your enthusiastic endorsement of general carnage.

Posted by: glasnost at December 9, 2006 10:30 PM

Abu Kais, answer me a serious question:

I ask, as someone interested in seeing Lebanon survive in basically one piece, and with as much poltiical independence from Syria as is possible, as well as freedom from coercion against its citizens, I'm asking you:

What's the fuc*ing point of this tribunal, and why is March 14 going all the way to the wall to hold onto it?

Benefits of dropping the tribunal: I assume, the continuance of the March 14 government, the end of the crisis, and turning of the clock back to when March 14 was elected in the first place, post-Cedar Revolution - the highest point in Lebanon's history? No?

Costs of going with the tribunal: quite possibly, sectarian war in Lebanon. Quite likely, further political violence from Syria that you cannot respond to. More likely than otherwise: the return of a more pro-syrian government with some degree of co-optation.

Benefits of the tribunal: wellllll, maybe, it will form a basis for taking out Assad someday.. in a decade or two.. or maybe not. But who would do that? The West. And do we need a UN tribunal to make the case? Heck, no.

So, what is this? Why is March 14 pursuing this tribunal all the way to the edge, without the resources to back up its stance? Is it entirely for symbolic reasons? To abstractly punish Syria with incriminating documents?

I agree with the concern-troll on one point: no one's coming to rescue you this year. On the other hand, Syria is a weak pariah state, and they know it. I'd be surprised if they make it another decade, and with the right combination of threats and incentives, they might pull a Khaddafi and basically wimp out themselves, leaving you relatively alone.

Or, if pushed hard by someone they know they can squelch and get away with it, they might squelch them.

Posted by: glasnost at December 9, 2006 10:44 PM

Nichevo's point is clear and simple-- fight or die.

Clear and simple self-perpetuating bullsh*t.

Posted by: glasnost at December 9, 2006 11:16 PM

Nichevo's point is clear and simple-- fight or die. Clear enough? And if that makes him a troll, what a bunch of panty waste wusses some of you people are.

While it must be difficult to do, Carlos comes through - endorsing a position even more fanatical than that of Hezbollah: burning children alive.

Attaboy, Carlos.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 10, 2006 12:07 AM

Every last one, women and children and old people if they brought any, doctors and reporters and clerics. Kill every last one of them. Then we'll know you're serious.

I must have skipped that part skimming.

DP is right, you went so far that you sound like a parody.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 10, 2006 01:01 AM

I think that when I'm in a hurry I just read the first and last sentence of each paragraph. That bit me on the ass that time.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 10, 2006 01:04 AM

maybe some analysis of what these actions actually mean on the ground would be in order for those readers who are not exactly conversant with the who what why of these people whom we have not heard of. . .

Posted by: mark at December 10, 2006 01:05 AM

I often wonder how some people here survived kindergarten playgrounds.

Hezbollah has shown that they are willing to fight and willing to initiate fighting. Syria has shown that they are willing to assassinate, repeatedly.

Just like a bully on a playground, if you don't fight back, expect to keep getting picked on. Continued weakness emboldens bullies. And on this playground, there is no teacher to run to for assistance.

Fighting back does not necessarily include dirty tactics. If one wishes to be honorable, one fights with as much honor as one can manage.

Posted by: luagha at December 10, 2006 07:26 AM

DPU, your def. of R and L are close. More accurately, I'd say the R wants to build a decent society with the awareness of tragedy implicit in human nature. The L wants to avoid that tragedy, and this drives them to unworkable solutions.

The R can't be limited to keeps hands off individual people, because sometimes you have to interfere. However, you are correct because MOST of the time, keeping one's hands off is the most workable solution.

Glasnost--'self-perpetuating'. I assume what you are talking about here is the 'cycle of violence'. That is Hitler did the Jews wrong, so the Jews lashed out and did the Arabs wrong, and now the Arabs lash out, and do the Jews wrong. And although Lebanon is not blessed with Jews, the logic carries over nicely is what you are saying, correct?

I have to disagree with you. The revenge cycle, a better, more clear name for this sort of thing, is part of the social dynamics. But so is ROI. That is Return on Investment.

Imagine I'm a seventeen year old boy/man who has been poorly raised, and poorly educated. I have little respect for authority.

Now, I can act out fantasies of power, and get lots of cash by becoming a criminal, or I can buckle down to the very hard task of becoming a real man, an adult. Learn a trade, get married, and take on adult responsibilities.

Now, if we make it more costly to become a criminal--say I face a great likelihood of social shunning from the pretty girls, and my local society leaders (Imams and Businessmen) tell me off, and I have a very high likelihood of going to prison for many years, or of the last thing I ever hear being a whistling noise, then there will be less criminals.

Raise the cost of an activity, and you get less of it. Basic economics.

Decrease the cost--by having pretty girls recite poetry about my heroic martyrdom, by financing my relatives with a bunch of money thats more than I would make in two years, have local imams talk about how wonderful I am, let me strut around in public with never a care about the Long Arm of the Law descending on my shoulder, and never ever turn me over to the Mossad, and arrange for my bosses to talk to the leaders of the nation in a negotiation in which they are equal partners so that I face the real possibility of going from seventeen year old punk to ruler of a village in the space of a year or two...

Thats decreasing the cost, and increasing the reward. Decrease the cost, increase the reward, and you get more of an activity. Again basic economics.

You need to get some more 'nuance' as they said over here in the 2004 elections in America. If you only use one model, or even two (please don't just limit yourself to Economic Man) then you're not getting whats going on.

The fact that the Mainstream Media is stuck on this cycle of violence narrative is proof that people with good hair aren't all that smart. We blog readers are supposed to be smarter than them.

Posted by: Tennwriter at December 10, 2006 08:05 AM

DPU,

you choose to focus on his rhetoric rather than his substance. That's what has always made this right/left "dialogue" such a waste of time. Congratulations.

Posted by: Carlos at December 10, 2006 09:10 AM

I think it's wise when considering differences of US style left vs. right to leave off issues of "keeping hands off individuals." Both categories revel in creating good and decent people (sarcasm? who, me?). If there is a difference, it'd be in the motivations of said manipulations. That is, in general terms, the right operates out of a religious/moral stance while the left comes from a greater society position. Hence, Just Say No. And in contrast, It Takes a Village. Hands off? Try libertarians. Their motto might be leave me alone, and I'll leave you alone. I just expect the worst out of every political movement. My expectations are usually met. I rejoice when they are not.

Posted by: allan at December 10, 2006 09:14 AM

you choose to focus on his rhetoric rather than his substance.

...said one pro-burning-children advocate.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 10, 2006 09:16 AM

That is, in general terms, the right operates out of a religious/moral stance while the left comes from a greater society position.

I'd disagree. The right-wing laissez-faire ideology is economy-based and has no predisposition toward religion. Also, many left-wing movements are religion-based and take their inspiration from the gospels.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 10, 2006 09:27 AM

LAHOUD MUST GO. HE SUPPORTS MURDER. ANY group which chants "DEATH TO SOMETHING" is not a democratic group. Promoting hate, advocating violence and murder is exactly the opposite of democracy. These crowds remind me of a film of Afghan fighters passing by a news videographer -- they were showing their numerous strength, but after about one minute it became clear it was the same fighters, just walking around a building, passing the cameraman numerous times! How many of these demonstrators paid their own way, come from Lebanon, and truly support a government that would be ruled by Syria? Technical question: Is it possible to impeach, or recall the Lebanese President? Ideally, the impeachment or recall would be done by a popular vote.

Posted by: DemocracyRules at December 10, 2006 10:30 AM

...said one pro-burning-children advocate.

Waste of time (and oxygen).

Posted by: Carlos at December 10, 2006 10:54 AM

Buddy, I'm not the one who needs more nuance. Your two paragraphs below here are to political science as the rational actor model is to economics.

Now, if we make it more costly to become a criminal--say I face a great likelihood of social shunning from the pretty girls, and my local society leaders (Imams and Businessmen) tell me off, and I have a very high likelihood of going to prison for many years, or of the last thing I ever hear being a whistling noise, then there will be less criminals.

Raise the cost of an activity, and you get less of it. Basic economics.

Decrease the cost--by having pretty girls recite poetry about my heroic martyrdom, by financing my relatives with a bunch of money thats more than I would make in two years, have local imams talk about how wonderful I am, let me strut around in public with never a care about the Long Arm of the Law descending on my shoulder, and never ever turn me over to the Mossad, and arrange for my bosses to talk to the leaders of the nation in a negotiation in which they are equal partners so that I face the real possibility of going from seventeen year old punk to ruler of a village in the space of a year or two...

You don't say, huh? Really? What, pray tell, is your point? And if holding power is really as simple as the ability to punish people as thoroughly as possible, how come the Khmer Rouge don't run the world?

Or, for something a little more nuanced, if you're ready for it: what happens when the other guy responds to your attempt to raise their costs for being what you percieve as an Islamist thug by raising the costs of you being an Israeli stooge?
Hmmm.. sounds like generalized warfare, which, as concern troll has pointed out, is ***not a winning hand*** for the good guys at the moment...

The alternative is the implicit consent of all competing parties to limit competition beyond a maximum escalation of costs. The equivalent of market collusion in politics. We call this civilization. Hizbullah may be a bunch of thugs, but while they remain a bunch of thugs incentivized to avoid imitating Al-Zarqawi in their own country, it's in March 14's interest to compete with Hizb on the same bounded level of competition.

Posted by: glasnost at December 10, 2006 11:26 AM

...said one pro-burning-children advocate.

Did Carlos ever go as far as nechevo? I mean you should be careful what you accuse people of.

And BTW, I am very embarrassed that I skimmed so carelessly that I missed the horrible quote that set you off, DP. I do agree with you that he went unforgivably far.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 10, 2006 01:19 PM

Did Carlos ever go as far as nechevo? I mean you should be careful what you accuse people of.

Carlos' position seems to be that if you don't go that far, then you're a panty [sic] waste [sic] wuss.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 10, 2006 01:51 PM

And BTW, I am very embarrassed that I skimmed so carelessly that I missed the horrible quote that set you off, DP.

I'm still surprised that it wasn't parody or a troll of the opposing political position.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 10, 2006 02:21 PM

You know, the phrase "pantie waste" is so out of date that there's no entry for it (or anything like it) in the Urban dictionary

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 10, 2006 02:26 PM

I'm still surprised that it wasn't parody or a troll of the opposing political position.

Inarticulate people can go pretty far off the rails when they're emotional and trying to be convincing.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 10, 2006 02:31 PM

Still listed in the dictionary: pantywaist.

Thread officially jacked now, I think.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 10, 2006 02:53 PM

I'm still surprised that it wasn't parody or a troll of the opposing political position.

Come on, DP, that was too detailed and emphatic to be a troll. You think these people don't exist? Spend five minutes on LGF, eh?

Posted by: glasnost at December 10, 2006 05:50 PM

1. Well, I'm glad we're moving beyond the cycle of violence rhetoric, and discarding it for a more realistic appraisal of the situation.

2. As I said, there is a great deal more than the Revenge Cycle and Economic Man as useful models for the world. Do pay attention. Kipling's poem about the baron who rules them all with iron is not invalidated, and is in fact, close to the base reality, but there are a number of other factors which impinge on it. Doing as the Khmer Rouge and slaughtering all your middle managers means you have just turned your society into a disorganized mass.

I notice you don't refute my description of how the terrorists are created via rational incentives. Instead you sneer at an effective and useful tool--granted it doesn't explain everything, but I'm not the sort of person who requires my hammer to saw wood.

3. Now, you're basically agreeing with Nichevo when you point out the risks of an unbounded war. The good guys lack the ability to defeat the bad guys, so you say, and the difference is N thinks that unconditional surrender is the best terms, and you hold out hope that some sort of more decent terms can be arranged, and that even possibly Hezbollah can be taught to be not bloodthirsty maniacs.

4. One of the key factors in getting Hezbollah to be reasonable, if that is your goal, is to choke off their supply of young ambitious warriors full of energy and desire. Which goes back to making it more rational to live a decent life rather than become a thug.

Its interesting that in negotiations between the US and various Native American tribes, often the older men of the tribes would be willing to negotiate and settle, but the young men wanted their fame, and so would make war anyways despite what the olders said.

5. You claim that what the Lebanese currently have is civilization, and they should not strive for anything better because that might upset the apple cart. I don't consider it civilization when a fair percent of the country is Hezbollaland according to Totten, our host. I also expect that the Hezbollah terrorists will be more effective in this competition than the forces of democracy, especially when Hezbollah has outside help.

6. You ask what would happen if the struggle went unbounded. A would push back B, which would then rebound and push back A, and then A would redouble its efforts and push back B, which would redouble its efforts...this cycle would go on for some period of time. Its one of the basic cycles of warfare.

And then A or B would find themselves unable to muster more effort, and they would collapse leaving one side in control, and the other side completely broken.

Now perhaps its because I'm a Westerner, and therefore think in terms of decisive battles instead of a several decades long matter of low-intensity warfare of feuding, and kidnapping reminiscent of the Hatfields and McCoys in America, but I have to think that if the good guys said "We're going to exterminate the Hezbollah who do not run in terror fast enough to escape our bullets, and we're not going to stop until we're done" that they would get a strong base of support, and it would end up with Lebanon strong, free, and proud, and its own country. It would be a place where you could go anywhere in safety because the thugs had been driven out.

Perhaps that is optimistic. Perhaps Nichevo and you are right.

Now, lets say the good guys and the bad guys continue this game the farce you dignify with the undeserved term of 'civilization'. How exactly are the good guys going to get the edge on the bad guys when they are the ones doing the assasinations?

Posted by: Tennwriter at December 10, 2006 10:04 PM

That was really long. I'm trying to gain the skill of brevity, but without success so far.

Let me try again.

If the good guys don't currently have the ability to destroy or force the submission of the bad guys than what can they do in the meantime via creating alliances, building their base, arming their populace, drawing in international aid and so forth to strengthen themselves, and what can they do to weaken the enemy likewise such as my Economic Man incentive plan, and any civilize the thugs plan in preparation for the day when the enemy are dealt with? Or are we just left with hoping the horse will sing?

There, that should do it.

Posted by: Tennwriter at December 10, 2006 10:18 PM

Tennwriter,

1) Please note that as our host apparently told me to go away, I had not continued. The troll stuff is just what it looks like: consider the source.

2) I favor unconditional surrender to Hez no more than I favor infanticide. The fact is (or IMHO, rather) that those are the choices.

Not killing babies, specifically, but in fact that would no doubt happen. The major martial skill in this region appears to be putting women and children in front of the fighting men and all around targets, so either you accept this up front or get nibbled to death by ducks.

Perhaps if you merely offered a credible threat the enemy would retreat, or would pull out noncombatants, but it looks so good on TV to be the victim, and the value of human life appears so low, that they would probably empty out orphanages just to exacerbate the problem.

2) I do not favor unconditional surrender to Hez or their like. The args I put in favor of this are: since it appears inevitable, since nobody has what it takes to stop them, one may as well minimize harms and lay down for them.

Better, in their view, to live on their knees than die on their feet. Why chance it? They probably couldn't handle freedom anyway. As long as they don't have to obey Westerners, they may as well obey someone. And once they surrender, inshallah, things aren't their fault anymore.

In view of the lamentable character of the natives, they should be used to such submissive behavior, and while for us in the West it resembles the behavior of inmates in a prison, to them that's normality and that's the way they like it. They should not aspire to freedom, it costs too much for their tastes. We in the West were wrong to think they might like freedom, and to try to help them get it. Waste of time, life, resources. To borrow a Russian expression, the moujiks crave the knout.

The only really amazing thing to me is that all this slavishness is couched under a rhetoric of pride. Pride? In what? No, don't tell me, I'll only laugh. The worst thing is when the poor benighted Arabic liberals pop up their heads and say "Why don't you help us?" Oh, you Arab liberals, you've been so much help.

I wish we could say that this has been asked and answered for all time, but no doubt it will all come around again and once more it will be our fault. Oh yes, we must help you be free again, right. Right, right, right. Is it April 1st already? Lotsa luck with that.

Posted by: nichevo at December 11, 2006 12:29 AM

I think the points nichevo makes are so spot on and correct. why ban him/her? is it because of the knee jerk arab intellectualism - more wrapped up in its ego to realize that pretty semantic arguments will only provide gleefull titters to the headchopper in execution square?

my in-laws are lebanese and it really frustrates (and occasionally amuses) me how they have been conditioned to think of everything as a conspiracy of foreign intelligence services. nothing is ever their fault and nothing can be done with to improve their lot, for while they are smart enough to discern the machinations in the smokey backrooms, they are so steeped in victimhood or wrapped in fools pride to do anything about it. an intersting and hypocritical conundrum to existing in, but given any tall balancing act to avoid responsibility, they can outperform the moscow ballet and cirque du soleil!

the other thing one notices about any discussion of lebanese politics is that every actor is defined in terms of their allegiance to an outside party. pro-frenc, pro-syrian, pro-usa, pro-jordanian, etc. no one, save for perhaps the septegenerian patriarch of the maronite church, is described as pro-lebanese. with these patriots in charge why wouldn't one find themselves in the current predicament? in the words of a good lebanese friend of mine, "the lebanese do not deserve lebanon".

Posted by: abu_sophia at December 11, 2006 11:35 AM

I think the points nichevo makes are so spot on and correct. why ban him/her?

Gleeful endorsement of slaughter in decidely non-dispassionate terms, vicarious insults to the Lebanese as a whole, a general intent to provoke as obnoxiously as possible, and the habit around here of banning Hizbullah-sympathetic posters. But moving on to a more rational topic:

Well, I'm glad we're moving beyond the cycle of violence rhetoric, and discarding it for a more realistic appraisal of the situation.

Anyone who's closely observed a mass civil conflict, knows that the cycle of violence is not just rhetoric. It's a fact that shapes perceptions and incentives for all parties involved. It's less common in armed forces where violence is a given assumption, but when atrocities start to pop up in a war, they follow the same tit-for-tat escalation cycle, which you yourself allude to further down the chain. But moving on,

Now perhaps its because I'm a Westerner, and therefore think in terms of decisive battles instead of a several decades long matter of low-intensity warfare of feuding, and kidnapping reminiscent of the Hatfields and McCoys in America, but I have to think that if the good guys said "We're going to exterminate the Hezbollah who do not run in terror fast enough to escape our bullets, and we're not going to stop until we're done" that they would get a strong base of support, and it would end up with Lebanon strong, free, and proud, and its own country. It would be a place where you could go anywhere in safety because the thugs had been driven out.

Yeah, being a Westerner doesn't help, but it's also due to the blind faith that everyone shares your moral values and assumptions. The estimates of the size of the protests in Beirut range from 500,000 to 1,000,000 people. 15-25% of the population. Do the problems with this cute little extermination (your word) program become a little more clear now? Do you often gain a strong base of support in a population after you've waxed one-quarter of it? Did Stalin have a strong base of support? Are you watching what's going on in Iraq right now with admiration - all those heroic folk ready to forge their nation in the other guy's blood?

If the good guys don't currently have the ability to destroy or force the submission of the bad guys than what can they do in the meantime via creating alliances, building their base, arming their populace, drawing in international aid and so forth to strengthen themselves, and what can they do to weaken the enemy likewise such as my Economic Man incentive plan, and any civilize the thugs plan in preparation for the day when the enemy are dealt with? Or are we just left with hoping the horse will sing?

It's not simply a question of ability, but also of the morally appropriate and strategic most useful tools for the given job.

Having said that, I have no idea what out of that sort of thing going on, and I wouldn't neccessarily consider any of it a bad idea. But using lethal force against civil disobediance is not a democratic value, even when nasty people are behind it.

Syria's assassinations are a different story. It would be very appropriate for the US to be punishing Syria for what they're doing. It would be appropriate for Lebanon as well, but not neccesarily available or smart.

Posted by: glasnost at December 11, 2006 02:57 PM

re: Posted by glasnost at December 11, 2006 02:57 PM

I think the points nichevo makes are so spot on and correct. why ban him/her?

Gleeful endorsement of slaughter in decidely non-dispassionate terms,

1) To pick nits, an endorsement would have to be of something which did in fact occur. You can say I advocated, suggested, recommended slaughter or killing; but there has been none to endorse. If and when it occurs, I might then endorse it.

1a) There is nothing to endorse because, as is my overarching belief and the point I am trying to make, this is not an option being considered by the current gov't. It is apparently not possible, whether in moral or practical terms, to decisively confront and defeat this enemy, even though the alternative is, evidently, too horrible to contemplate.

2) Gleeful? I think this is more in the way of projection on your part. Which are you, a knave or a fool? A fool would believe that I was gleeful about any of this situation; a knave would nonetheless try to propagate the lie.

3) Non-dispassionate terms? How so? What terms would you account "dispassionate?"

vicarious insults to the Lebanese as a whole,

Which more than one local commenter here seems to find extremely apt. And at least in the Western code, a gentleman cannot be insulted by the truth.

a general intent to provoke as obnoxiously as possible,

When waking a sleeper in the midst of a house afire, gentle pokes and murmurings in the ear must soon give way to jabs and loud imprecations to rise and act. Unless it is less important to save the sleeper from burning in the fire than to make nice. Had someone pounded sense into the gov't's or the people's heads earlier, Hez might have been neutralized at a lesser cost than now will follow.

and the habit around here of banning Hizbullah-sympathetic posters.

No, the syndrome is the old one of killing the messenger who brings bad news. Again, only a knave or a fool could think me sympathetic to Hez, especially after I have "gleefully endorsed their slaughter." Contradictions between posts are one thing, those within a single comment are especially amusing.

Incidentally, although Abu Kais has expressed distaste for my words, he seems in fact to disagree not at all. He is under no illusion as to what fate awaits current events. He just wishes, I believe, that I would be nicer about saying so. Certainly my news is unpleasant and my truth is harsh; I cannot deny it. He may also wish it weren't so, but as we all know, wishing doesn't make it so.

That, and he is in the position of ambivalence faced by one watching one's mother-in-law going over a cliff in one's new Ferrari. His antipathy for the Jews would lead him to sympathy with Hez, except for the unfortunate side that they will destroy his country before they destroy Israel.

And his prior unwillingness to face the question of whose enemy's enemy is whose friend must also be gnawing at him, when Israel could have so easily have mopped up on Hez at a much lower cost to Leb than is now faced.

Again, I have invited the discussion of alternatives to the future I have foretold; agreement from the open-minded and those close to the situation, and obfuscation from such as you, has been the result.

Posted by: nichevo at December 11, 2006 06:42 PM

A pigpile of disingenuous verbal manipulation, insinuation, and folk generalities such as would make a public-relations team blush, nichevo. Pat yourself on the back. Generally speaking, I don't support banning anyone, but if Hizballah sympathizers are going to be banned, we might as well have balance by also banning pro-Western sociopaths as well.

You can say I advocated, suggested, recommended slaughter or killing; but there has been none to endorse

Irrelevant.

Incidentally, although Abu Kais has expressed distaste for my words, he seems in fact to disagree not at all. He is under no illusion as to what fate awaits current events.

irrelevant, and another manipulative projection, at that.

Again, only a knave or a fool could think me sympathetic to Hez, especially after I have "gleefully endorsed their slaughter."

Your error in comprehension.

I have invited the discussion of alternatives to the future I have foretold;

Ah, I couldn't have said it better myself, the operative word being foretold</i< your foretelling of the future is offensive, as is your pressumption of clairvoyance, not to mention your gleeful and graphic depiction of detail. Beyond that, it constitutes either a) a sadistic interest in taunting and humiliation for its own sake, or b) manipulation.

It's rather like running around in a shopping mall in Europe and describing to shoppers in lush detail how the small children they're shopping with are going to be gang-raped in their not-to-distant future by the hordes of unwashed Muslim immigrants who will very soon displace white Europeans as the majority and institute sharia law.

It's not just a projection - an extrapolation from a storyline in your head - but it's a manipulative one, crafted to prey on the genuine and appopriate concerns of your audience, intended to evoke and demand reactions on a scale equivlaent to the fantasy in your head, rather than what's happening in the real world.

What's happening in the world is a protest, nichevo. People marching around with signs. not an ethnic cleansing. Ethnic cleansing is what those with an ounce of genuine concern for the welfare of the Lebanese people are trying to avoid. Learn the fuc*ing difference and demonstrate and understanding of it in your future comments.

Posted by: glasnost at December 12, 2006 10:20 AM

It is quite impossible for you to criticize anyone else's writing, glasnost. At least with any appearance of credibility.

And your high-minded concern for their sensibilities does them no service. Nice words will not save them. The putative Eurabicization of Europe is still pending; the Hez crisis in Lebanon is NOW. And needs to be confronted NOW, not after everybody has had their ego sufficiently boosted.

The sleeper must awaken, and a slap or a bucket of cold water in the face is the least of his problems. I'm ready to wager that when you call for course corrections on the part of the Bush Administration, you are not so careful of your tone.

Posted by: nichevo at December 12, 2006 11:33 AM

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Robert D. Kaplan, The Atlantic Monthly

England Your England
George Orwell, The Lion and the Unicorn