Michael J. Totten: How not to run for president of Lebanon

December 06, 2006

How not to run for president of Lebanon

Tony Badran has written a good piece in the LA Times on Michel Aoun's "puzzling run for president of Lebanon". Here's an excerpt:

There's a cardinal rule in Lebanese politics that the president must be acceptable both to his own community and to the others. Aoun is neither. His positions have been antithetical to the Maronite patriarchate, the seat of moderation in the community and a strong opponent of using street rallies to unseat the government. Aoun's alliance with Hezbollah and Syria's puppets has infuriated the anti-Syrian Christian community, which aimed much of its anger at him after the assassination of Maronite Cabinet minister Pierre Gemayel last month. Now, by agreeing to be the vanguard of a Shiite-led coup attempt against a Sunni prime minister, he has broken an unwritten rule against getting his community involved in a Sunni-Shiite conflict, potentially putting the already polarized Maronite community at risk.

I would add that Aoun is only trying to be acceptable to the Syrian regime, and is acting as if they are still calling the shots in the country. Tony concludes:

As such, Aoun is but the latest in a line of challengers of Lebanon's unwritten codes. He will fail like all the others; the question is how much damage he causes in the meantime.

Read the entire piece here.

Posted by Abu Kais at December 6, 2006 11:03 AM

Comments

As usual, excellent comment. Bravo. I hope Aoun realize that he's wrong and stop use Lebanon for his "intérêts personnels" because lebanese will pay the bill.

Posted by: Emma at December 6, 2006 12:14 PM

Doesn't everyone vote on the president? There are more Shia than Christians. He's banking on HA popularity after the war.

Posted by: Jew at December 6, 2006 03:01 PM

No, Parliament elects the President, not a direct popular vote. Even in the US it's not the popular vote that determines it.

And be very careful with your confident demographic assertions, not to mention the bit about Hezbollah popularity.

Posted by: Tony at December 6, 2006 03:19 PM

On a related suject the Maronite church is now calling for a presidential election.

File it under "too-little-too-late-but-better-little-and-late-than nothing".

In the same file Seniora wants to build the state and a culture of life now.

The patriach is 2 years too late, and Seniora should have campaiged on his new theme well before the war this summer.

You look strong and wise when you preempt. You look weak and defeated when you are reactive. Story of modern day Lebanon.

Posted by: JoseyWales at December 6, 2006 05:38 PM

"Reactive" is how democracy works. Nothing happens until people are convinced that it's absolutely necessary.

Posted by: Josh Scholar at December 6, 2006 05:47 PM

Josh,

"Reactive" to reasonable feedback is how democracy works (i.e parliaments, elections, and debates).

Not "reactive" to a guy holding a gun to your head.

If you are going to resign anyway, or call for elections or whatever, pick you own timing and set your conditions. Don't wait until you have no choice and everyone knows it.

Posted by: JoseyWales at December 6, 2006 06:01 PM

I truly hope that Aoun will end up like Franjieh, shunned and despised. It was tradition to honk the car horn under the bridge of Nahr El Kalb in Lebanon to salute the general. I cannot tell you how many times we drove out of our way, just to do that. I eagerly awaited to hear the SOB's speech when he returned to Lebanon and it did not take long to see how wrong I was about this mercenary. I cannot hear his name anymore. What a waste of oxygen he turned out to be.

Posted by: Maya at December 6, 2006 09:10 PM

A question some of the Lebanese on here may be able to answer, but why does Aoun want the Presidential job so badly?

I ask that as I thought that the powers of President were watered down quite considerably post 1991, in favour of the Prime Minister.

Is it simply because he is a Christian and this is the top job that the Christian community traditionally gets (PM being closed off to him as it goes to a Sunni)?

Posted by: Dirk at December 6, 2006 11:31 PM

Any rational christian will vote for Aoun. He is the only strong christian leader to stand up against Sunni and Shia when necessary.
He is among the few calling for early elections... That proves something no?????

Posted by: ross at December 7, 2006 02:19 AM

He is the only strong christian leader to stand up against Sunni and Shia when necessary.

How is bring Syria's front man 'standing up against Sunni and Shia'?

He is among the few calling for early elections...

Maybe early elections in Lebanon are no big deal, I dunno. In the US, there is no such thing as an early election- you win an election, you've got the office until the term expires, you die, or are impeached for something (usually criminal acts).

Would someone from Lebanon please explain the significance of early elections within their system? Is it unheard of, or no big deal?

That proves something no?????

From where I'm sitting, it looks like he's willing to give up principles he used to hold in order to attain a position of power.

In my experience, it is best to keep such people as far from positions of power as possible.

Posted by: rosignol at December 7, 2006 05:11 AM

Aoun is only trying to be acceptable to the Syrian regime

Perhaps the Syrians told Aoun that they know just what skeletons are in Aoun's closet, and that makes him their slave. Odd that none of Aoun's followers ever seems to ask this.

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