Hezbollah will hold protest within 48 hours, Reuters reports. I guess the Nasrallah received his orders today, or may be it was yesterday and it took an extra day to translate them from Farsi to Arabic.

Abu Nais, you're no fan of Hizballah, and neither am I, but this seems to suggest rather strongly that Hizballah wants no part of bumping off Lebanese figures themselves. Their motivations for wanting no piece of that are another story, but that's an important silver lining and one you should specifically mention, or your readers will blitz right past it.

Nasrallah here, Nasrallha there. The goose is cooked. The Lebanese people have to do something drastic (e.g.: sitting peacefully in large numbers at martyrs square....MAKING PEACE WITH ISRAEL............= I would love to see that!)Jumblatt et al have to stop playing both sides......The only compromise is the one necessary to govern the country properly.Be wise. Make peace. Learn from Sadat. That is a hell of a man!Do what nobody would dare to do..........

For those of you who are inclined to romanticize Lebanon or Lebanese democracy, read this:

http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=107&ItemID=11508

Interesting read, RebLeb. Thanks for the link.

That was one of the more cogent pieces I've ever read in Zmag.

Avnery makes some good points, but I am not sure I swallow this whole "the Bush administration won't allow Israel to negotiate with Syria..." bit.

Like I've said before, I don't think the Syrians want the Golan because getting the Golan means making a true peace with Israel, and they can't do that because their raison d'etra would disappear. Syria represents rejectionist Arab nationalist camp. It's how the minority Alawites maintain some semblance of legitimacy to rule. They are saying to the Arab world, in effect, "Hey, we might be heretical Muslims, but look at how anti-Israel we are!!!"

But, according to the article, if Syria possesses the Golan Heights it has a certain military advantage over Isreal. The high ground from which to launch attacks. Isreal would lose any advance notice of Syrian movements (assuming that Syria would directly attack Isreal.)

I agree though, that Syria would have one less excuse as to why it won't make peace with Isreal. I'm sure they can come up with many others.

You will remember how many times Assad and his foreign minister warned the world that al-Qaeda was infiltrating Lebanon. I guess they know because they send them there.

That's pretty much my take on the situation. Send your assassins in, warn everyone that al-Q is infiltrating, order the assassins to start killing people, announce that you were right about al-Q.

re Zmag: Haven't read the article, but I've found that it is generally prudent to consider what is on that site to be about as credible as what's on indymedia.

I think there is some mistyping in the article:

"prompting Fatah Intifada to quickly disassociate itself from the new movement, which also quickly declared its independence from Fatah Intifada after using their offices for more than 56 days"

It seems to say that Fatah Intifada is declaring independence from Fatah Intifada? And what movement?

WE MUST TALK PEACE WITH IRAN, SYRIA -- DRAFT AGENDA:
– Morning: Brief intro, overview, goals of the day by Pamela Anderson
– Syria: When and how we intend to drop 12 GPS bombs beside Assad’s bedroom
– Power Point presentation, before/after simulation pics for palace
– Assad’s preferred bombing dates, nations he would like to do it
– Which villa he would prefer in Tunisia (virtual tours of real estate listings)
Lunch: California Fusion fare with Pamela’s comments on morning events
– Afternoon, Iran: Which Iranian rebel groups we’ll be supporting this year, $$ amounts
– Power Point presentation RE the 1-day plan to destroy Iran’s new Russian missiles
– Iranian input about which offshore oil rigs they would like us to seize first
– Invitation to Iranian leaders to aid in massive Iranian heroin imports via Afghanistan
– Financial incentives review (Deloitte Touche)
– Discussion, with fruit punch, shortbread, Syrian coffee, Iranian tea, jocular exchanges
– Condi and George’s wrap-up, with brief preview of evening events, adjournment.

Ever heard of generalization rebleb?

B>Neoconservatives and the Dilemmas of Strategy and Ideology, 1992-2006

In all the discussions of neoconservative foreign policy that have taken place over the past couple of years --- some more informed than others, some more disapproving that others --- there is one abiding perception that seems to unite critics and proponents alike: that a neoconservative foreign policy is distinct from other strands of conservatism because of its emphasis on democracy promotion and that, in fact, exporting democracy for strategic and moral reasons --- and through hard power if necessary --- is one of the central defining purposes of contemporary second generation neoconservatism.

This paper will challenge the dominant view that neoconservatism prioritises democracy promotion. It will examine the nature of the neoconservative foreign policy strategy articulated during the 1990s --- which, it is argued, has been widely misinterpreted --- and will discuss the strategic and ideological tensions inherent within the strategy. Though the George W. Bush administration has not followed a neoconservative strategy in every respect, his administration has been strongly influenced by it and so some of these strategic and ideological tensions have also emerged since 9/11. It is my belief that the central cause of this tension is that the most important priority of the neoconservative strategy has always been to preserve the post-cold war ‘unipolar moment’ by perpetuating American pre-eminence and this clashes with the purported emphasis on democratization. The strategy also risks imperial overstretch and, for the most part, it fails to consider matters that are not state-based economic or state-based military issues.

At the end of the cold war, the first generation of neoconservatives that had emerged in the early seventies, was replaced by a second, younger generation that began to gravitate around the idea of American unipolarism.1 (This is the group that will be the subject of our discussion here.) It is important to clarify from the beginning that although this younger group was organised and led primarily by neoconservatives such as William Kristol and Robert Kagan, it was not their exclusive domain; rather it was a mix of neocons and other conservatives, such as Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld, who all shared a vision of a unipolar America, a vision of global dominance. Gary Dorrien refers to this group collectively as “unipolarists”.2 In the main, neocons were the most important organisers and theorists within this network, but their ideas enjoyed some wider support.3 How much of a difference there, in fact, is between neocons and their other conservative sympathisers is an issue we will return to.

In terms of strategy, this group embraced the concept of unipolarism.4 At the end of the Cold War, American found itself, to use Charles Krauthammer’s famous phrase, in a “unipolar” position. It no longer had to accept the existence of a competing superpower, so rather than following a defensive strategy, like the one put forward by the first generation of neocons in the 70s, the US could now project power offensively to shape the world and construct an American imperium.5

This was captured in the 1992 Defense Planning Guidance document, written for then Secretary of Defense, Dick Cheney, by staffers Zalmay Khalilzad and Lewis Libby, who worked for the undersecretary of defence, Paul Wolfowitz.6 In contrast to the first generation of neocons, they now had the freedom to develop a strategy that rejected coexistence with any rival power and actively sought to prevent the emergence of a new competitor. This was the essence of the neoconservative strategy that was built upon by their think tanks and advocacy groups during the nineties.

In preventing the emergence of a rival power, Washington would be constructing --- in the words of Kristol and Kagan ----a “benevolent global hegemony”.7 While this would not solve every problem in the world, American hegemony would be better than any conceivable alternative. Joshua Muravchik wrote in 1992 of “the soothing effect” of American power because it could maintain order in the world and reassure those feeling threatened by other states.8 Moreover, according to Kristol and Kagan, “most of the world’s major powers” “welcome…and prefer” American hegemony to any other alternative because they are much better off under Washington’s tutelage since it looks after their interests too9 and thus discourages them from seeking to challenge American power.

According to most of the neoconservatives, the “benevolence” of this “empire” --- to use Kagan’s words --- was assured by the fact that moral ideals and national interest almost always converge.10 What is good for American preponderance is, de facto, good both morally and strategically for most of the rest of the world too. As Wolfowitz wrote in Spring 2000: “Nothing could be less realistic than… the ‘realist’ view of foreign policy that dismisses human rights as an important tool of American foreign policy.”11

More:
Neoconservatives and the Dilemmas of Strategy and Ideology, 1992-2006 [pdf]

A CANADIAN'S ADVICE TO TERRORISTS
I give you one piece of advice: Do not incite the American people to war. We in Canada know a lot about the US, and how they think, and how they live, much more than the average person in Bam, Iran, or Tyre, Lebanon, knows. You think that you can use hate as a weapon to build an attack against he US, but you know not what you do. The US has over 300 million people, and they are all soldiers. The US built its country by its own hands, and from the beginning, they all accepted that freedom, liberty, and democracy were not negotiable. If by some miracle, an invasion force of Iranians attempted a landing on US soil, every man, woman and child would be there to meet them. They would not relent until it was finished. On United Airlines Flight 93, a random assortment of 40 civilian Americans was suddenly called to arms in a miniature Middle Eastern war. The ex-policewoman air hostess, the environmentalist, the marketing executive, moved against the Islamists as one, and collectively said, "We are not afraid". Americans did not become timorous, or afraid after 9/11, instead they "got busy on yo’ ass". After 9/11, America did not back down, and they will not back down, because the attack incited individual Americans against every Islamist, and every person who supports Islamists, or gives comfort to them. Americans are not the same as the Russians in Afghanistan, or the French in Algeria. To defeat the US, you will have to kill every one of them, and you do not know how to do that.

You clearly do not understand how rich Americans are, how many resources they have at their disposal, how intelligent, perseverant, and creative they are. Their wealth is enormous, with massive amounts of built structure: large houses, soaring office towers, highways, schools, universities, hospitals, and military bases everywhere, spanning a continent. Honestly, if you had even an inkling of what you are up against, you would cease your pointless reverse crusade immediately.

Within the last century, Americans have become extremely interested in war. They think about it, talk about it, plan for, it and rehearse it constantly. They spend huge amounts on their military every year, building installations and weapons, many types of which you have never even heard about. Tens of millions of Americans have served, do serve, and will serve in their military. We Canadians sometimes stand back and look at the Americans bemused, because one seldom even sees any of the Canadian military presence in Canada, whereas the US National Guard units stationed near Buffalo, New York, alone, have sufficient resources at their disposal to kill every Muslim on earth. Of course the Americans are right to prepare for war, because there is always another one coming, and they know that they will probably be the main target. The US even declared a "War on Poverty" in the 1960's, but thankfully they relented before they began bombing the slums.

People who do not understand democracies constantly underestimate them. Hitler and Stalin certainly underestimated democracies. Many of those living in non-democracies think that in the current situation in the US, with huge internal dissent, Democrats shouting misgivings about Iraq, and Republicans pontificating about treachery, and the enemy within, it may seem that the factions will cancel each other out, or with more Democrat influence, the whole tide of war will change. Instead, the US is exposing its power to the world, by thinking out loud, disagreeing publicly, and nit-picking endlessly over details in floods of political television programs. The election is over, and, the war on terror will go on, as all previous US wars have done, irrespective of the party in power. To understand US policy, look carefully at what is not said, because that is where they have reached implicit consensus. Neither side is talking about ending the war on terror -- instead they are bickering about the best way to kill Islamists.

For the Middle East, the scale of this war is enormous, which is clearly evident in the reportage of Al Jazeera, which mainly features events related to the war on terror. In contrast, this war has had no real effect on the US whatsoever. It is completely trivial. The US media talks about the war a lot, but Americans are always very interested in war in general, and there are no interesting sex scandals going on at the moment. If JonBenet Ramsay's murderer were to be found, CNN would focus completely on that, and behave for weeks as if the war on terror did not exist. So far, the war on terror has cost the US roughly 6,000 lives since 9/11, while over that same period, approximately 2,000,000 Americans have died from smoking. In the World War II epoch, spanning 1933-1945, about 70,000,000 people were killed, but only about 500,000 of them were Americans, and the US became stronger because of that war. Islamists hope to obtain nuclear weapons (in fact there really are no other weapons of mass destruction). With some luck, and perseverance, Islamists may be able to detonate a nuclear bomb in Times Square, New York, and kill 1,000,000 people, but that is 0.3% of the US population. The remaining 99.7% of the US population would then do to the Islamists what the US did to Japan. Later, in the years that followed such an event, some Americans would regret having turned several Middle Eastern countries into blowing ash, but there would be a reluctant final consensus that after the Times Square bombing, it had to be done, and they would be right.

In the meantime, the US grows stronger each day. Their economy is doing extremely well, providing levels of health and prosperity that even Ali Baba could not have dreamt about. Coca Cola is finally getting to challenge Pepsi in Afghanistan. As a bonus, the US military gets to interrupt its constant war games to practice and train in a real war in Iraq. These are almost perfect training circumstances, with lots of troop rotations, a very low casualty rate, a real but evanescent enemy, and a kill ratio of much higher than 10 to 1. It is a general's dream, and it's an excellent theatre to test, develop, and refine weapons and tactics, in preparation for Iran, when that battle becomes necessary.

The most powerful method the US has of defeating the Islamists is already in play, and it will ultimately succeed. We Canadians, as the constant neighbours and interlocutors of the Americans, know their secrets. Only 5% of Americans have passports, and their biggest single foreign travel destination is Canada. The Americans’ secret method is that they do not hate very well. They’re terrible at it. They don't teach their children to hate, they constantly forget who their enemies are, and they forgive adversaries, usually before the last bullet has landed. Islamists, and so many people in the Middle East, cling to hate as an addiction, passing it on to their children, cherishing it inside themselves, using it as the centerpiece of their lives. Hate, quite simply, like other addictions, is a waste of time and energy. Americans can't concentrate very long on hate. They lose interest, or forget what the fighting was all about, or follow up their wars with reconstruction plans for their vanquished enemies. From time to time, they get mad at "Krauts", or "Japs", or "Commies", but the next thing you know, the epithets are gone from the language, and things are back to normal, with Americans welcoming their former enemies into their country as immigrants, and marrying them, if possible.

Therefore, my advice to Islamists is to just give up fighting the US and forget about it. Your hate will not even be reciprocated, and you will probably still be welcomed as immigrants during the conflict. In the meantime, remember it's not the Americans fault that your son wants to play with X-Box, or your daughter wants to wear Prada. If you don’t like Coca-Cola, don’t buy it. By flaunting your hate, you expose your jealousy, and humiliate yourselves. At the end of the war on terror, those who hate will be no better off than they were, while the US, by not hating, will be ever brighter, as "the shining city on the hill".

It is my belief that the central cause of this tension is that the most important priority of the neoconservative strategy has always been to preserve the post-cold war ‘unipolar moment’ by perpetuating American pre-eminence and this clashes with the purported emphasis on democratization.

Your belief is incorrect. You are confusing Neoconservatism with Realism.

While Neoconservatives do think American pre-eminence is a good thing (as do most Americans), they also believe that spreading democracy will eventually make American pre-eminence irrelevant.

When every nation is democratic and prosperous, a 'global policeman' will no longer be necessary, and brute military force will cease to be a determining factor in international relations. Americans will then be free to indulge our preference for essentially ignoring the rest of the planet and getting on with the serious business of making money.

This idea, as unrealistic and hopelessly idealistic as it is, appeals to many Americans. It sounds far, far more pleasant than living in an eternally hobbesian world where the US will always be compelled to expend blood and treasure to defend friendly democracies from thugs.

In contrast, Realists accept that we are in an eternally hobbesian world and that the US will always be compelled to expend blood and treasure to defend it's friends (not necessarily democracies) from others (not necessarily thugs), and they seek to maximize the US's power within such an environment ("preserve the post-cold war ‘unipolar moment’") so that our enemies will be deterred (deterrence costs less than open war) and so the US will have overwhelming force to draw upon should open war become necessary.

What happened after 9/11 is that the Realists were discredited- the general view was that their policies had led blowback inside the US- and the Neoconservatives had the best alternative approach (the third option was the Isolationists, who's foreign policy can be summarized as 'ignore the countries who don't fuck with us, kill the ones who do'. If they had been in charge on 9/11, Afghanistan would be an uninhabitable wasteland now).

The Realists predicted that the Neoconservative's plan was unlikely to work and would result in a huge mess... and you probably know the rest.

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