Chilling. I've always believed this about Iraq: If you can't solve a problem, enlarge the field. The field's about to go a lot bigger. The problem is now regional -- or rather, civilizational.

Micheal,

Lebanon's Sunni bloc, led by the al-Hariri clan and their regional Arab allies, also has sent a number of fighters to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to receive military training in order to counter Hezbollah's well-equipped and well-trained military forces

Do you seriously believe this crap??

all these are lies and nothing but lies, arent u ashamed of urself mr. totten, condemning lebanese people about being so superficial and blood thirsty, i wonder how u feel if ur neighbor from both side and all over the world want the death of your country and this how we feel in lebanon, we want peace and just peace we are done from the lies of all the arab leader, from bush, to chirac to olmert to blair to assad and najad, all of them are rejected by their own people , and we all know they keep lieying and lieying and produce instability for weak nations like lebanon in order to stay in power, so please go away coz that is the only way lebanon can survive, mercy us please and specially from stupid opinions.

we want peace and just peace

I suppose that depends on the what definition of 'we' is.

The Lebanese army already has deployed four brigades to greater Beirut to assume combat readiness in case Hezbollah forces attack Sunnis in West Beirut.

IIRC, a fair bit of the Lebanese army is composed of shias, and one of the recurring reasons the central government would not put Hizbullah on a leash was because of concern that their forces would not fight other shia.

I doubt the Lebanese army is going to count for much in what's coming unless units are filled according to sectarian affiliation. If so, they may actually stand and fight, but it also makes it a lot easier for units to go rogue and become a 'militia'.

Fasten your seat belts, a big war is coming in the middle east. There is no way the Sunnis will accept an Iran-dominated Iraq + Syria + Lebanon. Israel and the US, Turkey and Russia will not accept it either. Target number one: Iran's oil facilities from which these murderous thugs (that means the Iranian leadership for the clueless among you) derive all their power.

to commenter,
we: meant for the lebanese people, the usual victims of hypocrisy of the west.

Nonsense.

The 'usual victims' of western hypocrisy are westerners- we deal with the idiocies, delusions, and manias of our leaders and countrymen every single day.

Lebanon's problem is far more fundamental: the various communities that make up Lebanon have too few interests in common, and too much to gain by screwing over their neighbors.

Hizbullah- a proxy for Syria- demanded more say in Lebanon's government and was refused. Now Syrian agents are working to bring Lebanon's government down because they believe that it will lead to Hizbullah getting what they wanted.

Dear anonymous,

I think you misunderstand the point of Mr. Totten's posts. You assume like some Americans assume, that any criticism or attempt to analyze actions within a country is equal to hating that country. Simply put, that's not true.
As "rosignol" puts it, you are not the "usual victims", Americans are. That is NOT to dismiss your claims to being used, but to say this -- if you want to do more than simply vent on some blog about how all Americans hate you, you would do well to follow another recent example, and actually engage the people her in real discussions.

There is a dearth of honest storytelling in the American media, or even in English-language blogging, on the situation in Lebanon. I myself have taken to reading a few from the region, but would welcome more. In addition, frankly, Mr Totten here is far more friend than foe to Lebanon. You don't have to agree with him, yet talking to him, exchanging ideas, would serve you well.

"so please go away coz that is the only way lebanon can survive, mercy us please and specially from stupid opinions."

Then GIVE US THE SMART OPINIONS. Don't just come someplace and trash the joint, bring some actual wisdom with you. Don't just demean, uplift. Peace isn't easy, and it's not given because you "want" it, or even because you "deserve" it. It only comes when you not only demand it, but also stand up for the principles behind it.

Lebanon survives when it's people stand up for what's right, and against the people -- internal, external, whatever -- who wish to tear it down. And reporting on that ripping-away of the veil of peace, as Mr. Totten does here -- is not the same as actually tearing that veil away. Would you prefer that no one said anything about the actions of those who hunger for power? For I assure you that they would love for Mr. Totten to remain silent, to do they dirty work in the darkness they crave. And they no doubt love the fact that you're here, trashing him, as opposed to opposing their work, reporting on it from within the country.
I don't always agree with his opinions, but I respect the work he's done to come to those opinions.

Make sense?

And this comes on the heels of Mr. Blair's suggestion that Syria could become a "partner for peace".

It is time for the Western world to wake up and see their enemies for what they are - not for what they hope they can become.

God save Lebanon.

"all these are lies and nothing but lies"
Hmm, so nobody was assassinated?
Gemeyal is still alive?
Even Hariri is still alive?

What a joke!
To say something is a lie, or that somebody is innocent of some crime, requires telling what the truth is, or convicting somebody else of the crime.

"Not guilty" (beyond a reasonable doubt) does not mean innocent. In fact, so many guilty folk are not punished that many might well prefer death squad justice, to "none".

In my waking fantastical thoughts, I imagine Israel preparing an intervention -- into Syria. Less than 5% chance of it happening soon, but I think Olmert would be more likely to gain peace for Israel if he did something more pro-active for peace; like regime change in Syria.

If the hezzies decide to go into West Beirut, will the Israeli army open up a second front to help the Lebanese Army?

Now that talk has again turned away from Syria being engaged (a la the Iraq Study Group,)one wonders what country would benefit the most from the assassination- maybe that country that has a robust assassination policy, that sees everything as an existential challenge, and the one that wishes to neuter the entire Middle East so it becomes an accepting region of cowed eunuchs.

Gee, Alan, d'ya think you could narrow down the list a bit? I can think of a half-dozen governments who meet that criteria without even trying...

MJT, please help in maintaining solid reporting of the ground without the need for a speculative "scoop", we could go and read debka files right away if that was our wish.

Regards

It is unlikely that HA would launch a coup. Once in power, they would immediately be hit with economic sanctions. Lebanon is especially vulnerable to these because of the structure of its economy. Lebanon is not Iran with its oil reserves. It is dependent on trade, banking and international loans.

A civil war is not in their interst either. While the reconstruction is going on, their constituents are not in a position to support a war. It would be utter disaster for them.

HA need to block the tribunal without a coup and without war. They need to walk a fine line of civil unrest and intimidation. Their strategy won't work this time because it is clear to everyone that they are bluffing. The murder of Gemayel was part of the intimidation aspect but in the end, a useless gesture that will backfire.

MJT, please help in maintaining solid reporting of the ground without the need for a speculative "scoop", we could go and read debka files right away if that was our wish.

Stratfor isn't Debka, and they're not the only ones who are saying that civil war is coming

Lebanon's Sunni bloc, led by the al-Hariri clan and their regional Arab allies, also has sent a number of fighters to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to receive military training in order to counter Hezbollah's well-equipped and well-trained military forces.

If true, that sounds like a bad idea. Hezbollah is one of the most competent Arab armies in the area. Saudi Arabia & Egypt's military forces are really, really not. They'd be better off hiring some mercs. Is there still a French Foreign legion?

Speaking of the French, what are the UN peacekeepers doing while all of this is going on?

Speaking of the French, what are the UN peacekeepers doing while all of this is going on?

Mostly telling the Israelis to ignore what's going on along the Lebanon/Syrian border.

Hizbullah claims it's re-stocked it's inventory of missiles.

Mary
Speaking of the French, what are the UN peacekeepers doing while all of this is going on?

Mary, I am glad you asked. As we speak, the French UN contingent is practicing the phrase "I surrender" in Arabic and Persian. They are also practicing the "look of outrage" that their proteges the Christians of Lebanon are getting royally screwed. You know that look, it's a look that is SOOO outraged that it absolves the French that exhibit it from actually taking any action to help those same proteges.

If true, that sounds like a bad idea. Hezbollah is one of the most competent Arab armies in the area. Saudi Arabia & Egypt's military forces are really, really not.

Not to mention the need for stockpiled arms, ammunition, heavy weapons, and money. I don't have the impression any group in Lebanon apart from Hizbullah and the army has these, and the army is unreliable. So the question becomes, why fight? My guess is that if the Sunni and Christian forces can't find a sponsor they will come to an accomodation; it would be the sensible thing to do. However, I may be misjudging the level of emotion and perceived threat, that's the wild card.

The Lebanese army already has deployed four brigades to greater Beirut to assume combat readiness in case Hezbollah forces attack Sunnis in West Beirut.

While it's true that the LA army is currently deploying, the second part of this paragraph is an outright lie and pure speculation on behalf of "stratfor": Hezbollah isn't dumb enough to attack Sunni people for the heck of it neither is the army ready to get in a clash with Hezbollah (and vice versa).

Lebanon's Sunni bloc, led by the al-Hariri clan and their regional Arab allies, also has sent a number of fighters to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to receive military training in order to counter Hezbollah's well-equipped and well-trained military forces.

Same lies that have been circulating for months.

In the meantime, Syria continues to send reinforcements to its allies in Lebanon. Syrian army officers who previously served in Lebanon have infiltrated the country and are leading combat units of their allies in Hezbollah, pro-Syrian groups and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party.

Throughout the Lebanese civil war and post-1990, not a single Syrian army officer lead combat units of Hezbollah.

The SSNP are marginals that could be counted on the tip of your fingers.

Furthermore, about 2,500 Syrian troops masquerading as laborers have joined the ranks of the anti-government forces in Lebanon.

Hearsay....

But hey, the CIA DID CONFIRM that Saddam had WMDs... just laughable.

Mary... didn't know that Mohammad Bazzi is an authority on civil wars... who is that?

Michael,

Although the point of your post is quite valid "The stage is set for civil war", I have to question some of the "analysis" you quote from Stratfor.

- Deploying the Lebanese Army, as pointed out by others, does really not factor into any civil war concerns, when a large chunk of said army is made up of Shia. There is no such concept in the Army as loyalty to Lebanon. Any attempt at involving the army into a conflict would pretty much result in it fragmenting along sectarian lines, very much like it did in 1975-1990.

- I have to question the "sunnis sending fighters to train in Jordan" part of this report as well. I can't really disprove it, per se, but let's just call it a "feeling" i have based on having lived through this crap before. Sunnis, druze and christians will fight when their leaders ask them to (just like they did in 1975) and don't really need to be formally "trained" abroad.

- On the other hand, I fully suspect the bit about Syrian infiltration is absolutely correct. It has been so in the past, and everyone knows it.

Mary... didn't know that Mohammad Bazzi is an authority on civil wars... who is that?

There's this little, off-the-beaten path program called 'google'. If you've heard of it, go to news.google.com and check out what the world is saying about Syria and the reaction of various factions to the recent assassination. Mohammad Bazzi, Stratfor, etc. are some of many apprehensive voices.

"Andy Goldstein"

Are you laying blame at the feet of the Jews? Cui bono, right?

Whenever their is a negative event in the world, the Jews either caused it directly or benefited indirectly.

If the Black Plague had hit Nazi Germany in the late 30's and killed millions, would it have been the fault of the Jews' prayers of hell, fire and brimstone to rain upon their killer's heads that you would have faulted or the brilliant Jewish doctors that were not yet killed by the Nazis, who managed to rediscover the Black Plague virus their ancestors used so adeptly a few centuries before?

"There's this little, off-the-beaten path program called 'google'."

Mary
I have heard of it. It's quite good :-) . I have also heard of Google Earth. You can go there and look at satellite views of the Middle East. Looks so nice and peaceful from far above, doesn't it? You can also speculate at how all these borders will without a doubt be redrawn in the next 10 years, maybe the next 5 years. Then you can close the program and go on with your life like we all do.

All of them beating on the civil war drum, that's easy to do, quite easy.

One can be apprehensive without throwing speculation as "facts".

Cheers

"Only in Lebanon can your allies seem as likely to have killed you as your enemies. Only in Lebanon would such an assassination take place the day the Syrians re-establish links with Iraq, the first step in their involvement in getting the US out and themselves back into the international fold, and the day before an expected HA demonstration. Therefore, the timing would seem to point to it not being Syrian handiwork. But then again, would that not be the best time to strike?
What of the victim?
On the one hand, an unknown but on the other, from one of the most prominent Christian families. Was his killing therefore a warning to the Pro-American March 14 group? Or, perhaps, the perfect candidate to enflame the Christian community?

Like the Summer war, someone has plans for Lebanon. Like the summer war, the eventual winner is unknown and more pertinently, an eventual winner is unlikely. And like the summer war, unless one of the sides makes a dramatic and unlikely u-turn, the people of Lebanon will suffer.

The Phoenix, a name based on the Cannanite inhabitants of Lebanon, the Phoenicians, lived a cycle of a glorious existence followed by a fiery end only to be reborn. Did someone, in telling that story, have foresight into the future of this country?"

From Mo at Patrick Lang's site. Probably the best comment on the situation yet.

Mustapha: Do you seriously believe this crap?

I don't know, I'm not there. And Stratfor has sources that you and I don't.

Maybe it's bullshit and maybe it isn't. Why do you believe it isn't?

It almost seems to be a moot point to determine who was behind the killing. I mean, clearly it is important to know who, exactly, did it. But consider that there have already been reports of Shiites in South Beirut firing guns in the air in celebration. Clearly they are very happy about the assassination. So maybe Syria was behind it? Maybe Hezb. Either way, both gain.

It seems like some of the Lebanese contributers here are doing their best to deny reality. I can understand why, because the reality is pretty ugly. It seems the country is heading towards a confrontation. For the Christians, Sunnis and Druze it would seem there are two options: Do nothing and let Syria and Hezb. dominate the country, or fight to prevent them from doing that. Both are bad options. But it's clear the time to choose has come.

Their neighbor to the south, Israel, could be a strong ally in this brewing confrontation. But I don't see the non-Shia/Hezb. segments of the country ever supporting such an alliance. It's simply a bridge too far. Better to be Hezbollah and Syria's whipping boy than take help from Israel, I guess is how they feel.

Just to clarify a few things I said earlier:

- Just because i don't buy the "Sunnis and Christians training in Jordan" doesn't mean I don't think they are arming themselves. In fact, I am pretty sure they are. These folks were never "disarmed" in the first place. Everyone in Lebanon has weapons (and I don't mean little handguns here). If violence were to break out today, Hezbollah might be the best organized and financed, but I can guarantee that both the Christians and the Sunnis, and most certainly the druze are armed and ready to go (as sad as that may sound).

- No one here (that I've read, so far) is "denying reality".

BV,

I said "some" of the Lebanese commentors here, but I don't mean you. You seem to be see things clearly and let the facts take you where they may, even if it's not a nice place. Lira, anonymous and mustapha all seem to be engaging in wishful thinking.

"Shiites in South Beirut firing guns in the air in celebration. Clearly they are very happy about the assassination. "

Or maybe they are the Leb equivalent to 'rednecks' who look for any excuse to whip out their 'big guns' and fire off a few to make themselves feel like big tough men.
-L

i've got to join the ranks of the dissenting commenters. this sounds pretty bogus to me.

the only "evidence" i have is that i've heard no rumors. this may not be too convincing to those of you who've never been here, but lebanon is a really small country -- if any substantial number of young men were being sent abroad for training, it's hard to believe word wouldn't have gotten out. i don't have a single friend whose cousin's brother-in-law is mysteriously in jordan, if you see what i mean.

i've been really skeptical of stratfor ever since i posted about a report of theirs on my blog while abroad (speculating that the 2005 bombings in lebanon were part of intra-maronite hostilities) -- commenters tore me to pieces on that one, and i've since learned for myself that it was absolute and total BS.

Michael
No need to backpedal my friend. I don't think the Stratfor report is BS. In fact, it would be surprising if the Sunnis (and the Christians, for that matter) were not training somewhere. It is common sense when you have thousands of Hezbollah living a few miles away and who have no allegiance to the central government.

Another clarification, about this whole "training" business.

When we talk about "sunnis" or "christians", you have to understand that these are not people who's daytime job is "militiaman". These are not regular forces, or standing troops.
We're talking about your neighbourhood mechanic, grocer, university student, shopkeeper, etc. These are everyday people, who will go home and pull their guns and ammo out from under the bed and head on to fight, if they feel their "community" is being threatened.

The point I'm getting at here is that these folks are not really in a position to be travelling abroad, to get training, or even to be training inside Lebanon (at least not in any kind of formal way).

Reading the comments from some non-Lebanese on this blog and others gives me the impression you guys think "sunnis and christians and druze" have this standing contingent of troops, who's day is spent training and living in barracks and being organized. Not so.

Just thought I'd throw that in :)

Hezbollah, on the other hand, is a whole different matter. These folks have the money and resources to have full time (no daytime job) "soldiers", if need be.

I heard the rumors that "everybody was arming" from more than one person in Lebanon, some connected, some not. What I heard, however, was that everybody was acquiring weapons, and not sending fighters to Jordan or some other country. I don't know how organized the effort is, or whether it is true or not. I tend to agree with bad vilbel's last comment, especially in what concerns the Sunnis. I don't know if Jumblatt's militia really disarmed. I don't think it did, and you'd be surprised by how fast they can resurface as a militia. As for Saad Hariri, his movement is not organized enough to support a military wing. He may have a few loyal followers, but it's limited in number and capacity. I also know that he has personally intervened to "discipline" some armed Sunnis who went into mixed Sunni/Shia areas and clashed with Shias from Amal.

I just read today in one of the papers that a large number of Syrian workers have suddenly appeared in the Bekaa, specifically the Zahle area. So I'm more inclined to believe the part in the report about the Syrians.

The Druze, Sunni, and Christian Leb folk would seem pretty naive to not expect to have to fight against an imposition of Shia/ Syrian will.
So I suspect they are getting prepared to fight, hoping their prep work will successfully deter Hez.
Who is getting prepped to fight too.

With all sides ready, they all wait for an ignition trigger, a spark to start. Or to use as a mechanism to avoid starting ...
the next Leb civil war.

I hope they avoid it. I fear they won't.

I don't put much stock in DEBKA or Stratfor reports, but I do wonder just how long Nasrallah can keep his troops chomping at the bit without ordering them into action.

Hard to think that anyone takes Stratfor as a sole, or even significant source. I can believe that they have "sources in the CIA" since most of their reports cover all possible bases, and do so using four times the words necessary. Using any information in the public sector that is purported to come from the CIA should raise a huge red flag up.

Having worked in corporate security for over twenty years, and at various times subscribed "i.e. paid premium dollars" for "special" Stratfor info in helping our execs travelling overseas remain safe, I take anything that comes from Strafor with a very large grain of salt.

In most Stratfor.com articles you can read just about anything into them that you want to. Strafor generally uses a CYA format so that no matter what happens they can reference one of their articles and say "I told you so". I've also come to think that the persons writing for Stratfor are paid by the word.

On the other hand, they have been rather successful commercially, so it is hard to argue with their marketing.

Hey MJT,

Just saw your post.

I can confirm the following: prices of weapons in lebanon have increased quite a bit over the past 5 months.

I can also confirm that several months ago, there were two groups that had started training (small exercises), and that a third political group had started recruiting. I haven't had solid information concerning this since, so I can't guarantee if this is still happening.

There is a bit of other more recent info I have, which I am not a 100% sure of. Because of that, I'd rather not go into here.

Cheers,
L.

Tom Grey,

Nail on the head, my friend.

For those of you who remember April 13th 1975....Hopefully, we're not gonna have another "bus incident".

FWIW over the past year or so, Debka seems to have become far more reliable. Even the speculative reports seem to contain hints of truth down the road.

(I haven't done any scientific analysis but I was previously sceptical of their site.)

The point I'm getting at here is that these folks are not really in a position to be travelling abroad, to get training, or even to be training inside Lebanon (at least not in any kind of formal way).

Dunno... there's marksmanship training- for that, all you need is a rifle, a range, and an instructor- and then there's small unit combat training (which requires more extensive resources).

I have no trouble believing that various people in Lebanon are practicing their marksmanship a bit more often than they used to (I get down to the range about once a month, it's not all that expensive once you have the hardware), but I doubt that they're doing small-unit combat training.

So it could be that the report is kind of vauge and stratfor is reading too much into it, but there could very easily be a nugget of truth in there.

Zak (semite1973), you and the others are only speculating.

Now you can continue on doing that, adding to the rumors that don't do any good and you are also thanked for that.

Got the picture amigo?

phone sex
Porn
Dogging Swingers
mobile phone casino
mobile phone bingo
phone sex
phone sex
granny phone sex
uk phone sex
uk phone sex
adult seo
peeing
phonesex numbers UK sex text messages call horny English phone sex
Send sex text messages txt message uk
Sexy stories
pre Recorded fetish phone stories
uk phonesex
Mobile phone porn and sex videos
Adult porno : links to xxx sex sites and porno directory
Peeing : pissing golden showers and peeing movies
Shelly phone sex call her shes hot
polyphonic ring tones
City girls Phone Sex,121 chat lines
uk phone sex
sex text messages
sexy boots and shoes
Huge tits great big boobs
Free live sex web cam
dogging
free bbw SSBBW - Super-Sized Big Beautiful Women
sex mags
mobile phone porn
anal fisting
ifriends
sex webcam adult naked live sex webcam all sex web cam
swingers and doggers
new zealand phone sex
swingers
phone sex
Hot horny pussy waiting to talk horny dirty filth for you horny phone sex girls hot an horny so horny they will make you sweat hot horny UK phone sex babes
massage parlours
doggers meeting places for doggers walk the dog meet doggers near you
swingers personals swingers clubs and swingers couples
bbw phone sex
Escorts
mature phone sex
Adult contacts
mobile phone sex
asian phone sex
domination phone sex
free sex webcams
shemale phone sex
Indian phone sex lines
hindi chatlines asian phone sex
adult baby phone sex
Jewish dating agency
porn star dvds
briana banks dvds
x rated video cams
briana banks
teagan presley
tera patrick
Cantonese phone sex
voyeur webcam
Australian phone sex,live sex chat for Australia,Phone sex numbers for Australians.Chat lines,adult chat lines,live 121 chat
black phone sex
Sex Webcams : adult webcams free webcams nude live xxx webcams teen web cams UK voyeur web cams
Black pussy tasty young black babes bare pussy
Gonzo porn movies
Mobile phone casino gamble for real money on your mobile phone
mobile phone poker play real time poker on your cell phone
ring tones
sex text messages
dogging uncovered
free sex webcam
phone sex
white pussy black cock
sex chat rooms
sex webcam
irish phone sex and webcam
uk phone sex
adult dvds
gay dvd
gay phone sex
adult webcam
buy viagra
oral sex
adult videos
sex shops
sex aids
sex toys
uk casino
online gambling uk
uk online gambling
Blind date bangers
Bus stop whores
teeny booper club tour
xxx proposal
mr chews asian beaver
round mound of ass
Mr big Dicks Hot Chicks
Pimp My Black Teen
Tinys Black Adventures
I Spy Camel Toe
Big League Facials
The Big Swallow
Bare Foot Maniacs
Heels And Hoes

Giants Black Meat White Treat
Horny Spanish Flies Tour Two
Lesbian Teen Hunter
Please Bang My Wife
All Reality Pass
All Star Porn Girls
Big Tit Patrol
Panties And Fannies
Pink Candy Shavers
See Her Squirt
Big Cock Teen Addiction
Casting Couch Teens
Coeds Need Cash

College Teens Book Bang
peeing
sex text
sms text messages
sms text
text
mobile tones
uk swingers
polyphonic ringtones
adult webcams
uk phone sex
jenna jameson
hairy black pussy
big tits round asses
asian shemale
Big tit patrol
I spy camel toe
bare foot maniacs
porn sites
adult friend finder
peeing
escorts
dogging
chat lines for phonesex

runescape money runescape gold runescape money runescape gold wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft Power Leveling Warcraft PowerLeveling buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape items runescape gold runescape money runescape accounts runescape gp dofus kamas buy dofus kamas Guild Wars Gold buy Guild Wars Gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold runescape money runescape power leveling runescape money runescape gold dofus kamas cheap runescape money cheap runescape gold Hellgate Palladium Hellgate London Palladium Hellgate money Tabula Rasa gold tabula rasa money lotro gold buy lotro gold Tabula Rasa Credit Tabula Rasa Credits Hellgate gold Hellgate London gold dofus kamas buy dofus kamas 血管瘤 肝血管瘤 音乐剧 北京富码电视 富码电视 富码电视台 7天酒店 7天连锁酒店 7天连锁 自清洗过滤器 过滤器 压力开关 压力传感器 流量开关 流量计 液位计 液位开关 温湿度记录仪 风速仪 可燃气体检测仪 wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft PowerLeveling Warcraft Power Leveling World of Warcraft PowerLeveling World of Warcraft Power Leveling runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling
runescape money runescape gold wow power leveling 棕榈树
eve isk
eve online isk
eve isk
eve online isk