November 21, 2006

Echoes of Zarqawi

If you think radical Shias are the only dangerous people in Lebanon, think again. From the SITE Institute:

The Mujahideen in Lebanon threaten that the Shi’ites will not have an “entity” in Lebanon, and increasingly warn the Sunni Muslim people that the “zero-hour” is approaching, in a statement issued today, Monday, November 20, 2006. Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, is stated to be bearing his evil and gathering killers, and will not greet the Sunni with “flowers,” but with curses. The Mujahideen believe that the Nusayri [aka Alawite - MJT] regime in Syria and Iran is gathering parties around Nasrallah and Hezbollah, and to counter, the Sunnis must be prepared to fight. They warn: “The blood will flow like rivers,” and to the Shi’ites: “Prepare your coffins and dig your graves. The hurricanes of the Mujahideen are coming in Lebanon”.
This sentiment, if I could call it that, does not represent mainstream Sunni opinion in Lebanon. (Mainstream Sunni opinion is more fairly represented by Fouad Seniora and Saad Hariri.) But as recent events in both Lebanon and Iraq show, minority extremist factions can be big enough to start wars by themselves.

Incidentally, those Americans who say they want a civil war against Hezbollah in Lebanon need to realize that these are the kinds of people they're egging on. The famous "protest babes" are not going to pick up the rifles.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at November 21, 2006 11:45 PM

Why do I get the feeling that Al Quaida (I assume that's the mujahideen)isn't going to amount to a hill of beans in Lebanon? The ones who enabled them in Iraq (Syria, probably Iran) will be dead set against them in Lebanon. In Iraq there was a total vacuum. In Lebanon, Hezbollah is entrenched and well-armed. Nor will they be able to recruit the same numbers as they did in Iraq, where they were fighting a western enemy.

Posted by: MarkC at November 21, 2006 11:56 PM

(I assume that's the mujahideen)

More or less, yes. There are also small crazed indigenous Salafist factions in Tripoli. These may or may not be the same people. It's hard to tell because hardly anything is ever written about them, and I didn't exactly go looking for interviews. They never do anything, but that could change.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at November 22, 2006 12:11 AM

so this will be terrorists terrorizing terrorists, dragging everyone they can into their fight? no one wants civil war but does that mean the status quo is desirable even though, as the europeans often say, is dangerously unsustainable?

it's a crying shame that this is happening but what does one do when one has no choice but either to capitulate, or fight (at the risk losing everything anyway)?

it seems the jihadists' assertation that they have the stronger will has been proven correct and they know that, in the end, they will prevail. there is no human cost that is too great for them because whoever dies in the process, their allah will sort out the infidel from the shahid (even the involuntary ones that will be sacrificed for the cause). we in the west have no answer for that because the will of moderates everywhere is hollow.

Posted by: mike at November 22, 2006 01:54 AM

Yes, it seems unlikely a civil war will serve the interests of anyone whose interest we would like to see served.

Posted by: TallDave at November 22, 2006 12:40 PM
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