August 29, 2006

More

I'll have more Gaza material published here shortly. In the meantime, don't forget I'm also filling in for Andrew Sullivan and posting shorter pieces over there.

Here are two recent articles:

Protesters to Olmert: You’re Going to Be Even More Mud than Golda

Hezbollah Dismantles Shebaa Farms Outposts

Posted by Michael J. Totten at August 29, 2006 06:42 AM
Comments

Thank you for providing these links to your articles at Sullivan's site. I do not (will not) browse that site and would miss your articles had you not provided the links.

Posted by: E. T. at August 29, 2006 07:08 AM

"Witnesses said that the vehicles laden with weapons and other military equipment were headed northward. "

For storage, to be used in the next round once the UN is gone and the status quo is restored.

They're being conservative, blending back in with Lebanese civil society (I use that term loosely) and keeping their weapons safe from a UN force with no clear mandate. This "humiliation" is practically meaningless, except to illustrate once more that disarming Hezbollah was never really on the UN's agenda and will not come anytime soon.

Posted by: Shmuel at August 29, 2006 09:24 AM

War -- usually a lose-lose proposition, even if both surviving sides claim victory.

Can you find any details about the Lebanese law that forbids its citizens from talking to Israelis? It would be good if Israel was "forced" to open its borders to more Lebanese visitors and workers.

I suspect Israel will get peace only after "defeat" -- Defeat is Victory. Maybe starting with a half-failing UN Leb force, and both sides continuing to expect a near term hot war ... that doesn't quite happen.

Posted by: Tom Grey - Liberty Dad at August 29, 2006 10:08 AM

Shmuel points out a glaring bit of same old same old. Here's the Hezbollah carting off weapons back to some bunker somewhere north of Shebaa. Witnesses? If these witnesses were Lebanese Army, aren't they wondering at what point those weapons could be pointed at them? Say maybe the civil war the Lebanese commenters here are always warning about. However, if they were French witnesses, well sure, c'est la vie would certainly apply. Either way, the beat (armed confrontation) goes on. Last witness on the road north..."Now you boys aren't going to do anything bad with those weapons, right?"

Posted by: allan at August 29, 2006 10:29 AM

C'mon, the US cannot disarm the terrorists in Iraq with their more than 130,000 well-armed troops, how can anybody expect the Lebanese, or the UN to disarm a more entrenched group of terrorists in Lebanon? The Israelis just have to be patient until the Lebanese are tired of being cannon fodders, and tired of their "victories".

Posted by: ic at August 29, 2006 03:13 PM

"Israelis just have to be patient".... that troubles me, considering that Hez'bollah sees no compunction at using South Lebanese civilians as cannon fodder and as such would have no hesitation of embracing Mutually Assured Destruction by lobbying an Iranian-delivered WMD (nuclear/biological/chemical) at Israel proper.

Why does Israel have to just sit and take all the misanthropic actions their enemies can throw at them? I can only imagine how the U.S. would respond if WMDs were lobbed at them from Mexico or Canada. As such, MJT, I'd be careful at labelling Hez'bollah's Shebaa withdrawal here as a defeat because it would only take one WMD for them to enjoy a real victory. The only real Hez'bollah defeat would be one in which Hez'bollah ceases to exist as a fighting force.

Other than that, I can't wait MJT until you're done at Sullivan's site because it is annoying to have to surf through Cox and Weigel's boooring (at least, for a Canadian) Dems vs. Repubs back-and-forth. But if it's increasing your readership I'm all for it.

Posted by: jjdynomite at August 29, 2006 03:59 PM

Michael,

Why can't/won't you cross post here the items you write for Sullivan's blog?

I ask because, though I am keenly interested in your writing, I can't/won't read it there.

Since you seem to have higher regard for him than I do, I'll be polite in my explanation...suffice to say I find Mr Sullivan significantly less accurate and insightful than you, and I don't want to contribute to his traffic.

James

Posted by: James at August 29, 2006 10:01 PM

Why can't/won't you cross post here the items you write for Sullivan's blog?

Time asked me not to.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 29, 2006 10:52 PM

Hezbollah is taking a new turn, Strengthening its political n community positions. As to my post a few days ago "A Scarry thought", Although it may just be a ploy.

Protest in a cemetery, That should be a clear message.

I also came across the WAR MOVIE, It loaded fine from the link. "In my Media Player

Thanks, Michael J. Totten

Posted by: J.fly at August 30, 2006 06:00 AM

That video piece that you linked to at AS's was fantastic. I meant to skim it and click around, but found myself going back to the beginning and actually watching all 25 minutes...

I don't want to paste the link in below and raise the ire of Time (per MJT's above comment), so I'll just strongly urge even the Sully-averse to go over and check it out.

Posted by: Josh at August 30, 2006 06:30 AM

I stopped reading Sully regularly when his desire for gay marriage made him oppose Bush, who only favored civil unions; though of course Andrew claimed it was also the Bush incompetence in Iraq, etc.

Michael, funny how Sully helped increase your readership when you started -- but I think YOU are helping HIM in readership, now! (Sort of more objective than just my fanship praise -- more like the near weekly Instalaunches you get, and deserve. Do you still get traffic spikes with them?)

A French guy, Michael Béhé in Beirut, is writing about how shocked everybody is at how strong Hez was, and how he and many were supporting Israeli destruction of Hez -- Israel doing the Leb job the Leb people were unwilling to do.

It was not a big Hez victory. I wonder if Leb can have peace with Israel; I hope so.

Posted by: Tom Grey - Liberty Dad at August 30, 2006 06:59 AM

SoCalJustice,

Siniora must tow the "arab party line" still to a certain degree (Specially considering there is about to be a peace process revival based on the 2002 Saudi plan, I think). This is not news here. Siniora also said yesterday (to western media, namely LeMonde):

“Peace is the solution… Security is not about 10 meters here or there… It’s about being able to live in peace with its neighbors… At the end of the day, Israel will live among the Arabs. The time has come to solve this problem by Arabs accepting Israel and not through bloodshed and nurturing hate and murders.” (link)

We need to stop fussing over every single comment made by these politicians, and remember that in the end, that's what politicians do: lip service depending on who the target audience is on a given day.

I still maintain that Siniora is quietly doing his best to disarm HA (whether that's enough, we'll have to wait and see) and that ultimately, Lebanon has no major fundemental dispute with Israel (unlike the Palestinians, say, or Syria). Which means a just peace is very possible. It's just a matter of how to get there, without ruffling the feathers of those who can sabotage it (Syria, Iran, other arab countries who have their own interests, etc.).

Patience :)

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 30, 2006 09:54 AM

bad vilbel,

Believe me, I'm rooting for you to be right. And I also respect Seniora's desire to not be assassinated - I know there are certain things he just cannot say.

I also recognize the Israelis role in making peace with Lebanon difficult - not the S. Farms or "the prisoners," - but massive bombing of non-HA targets did not exactly make the lives of non-HA/Shia politicians all that easy.

But with Nasrallah's "apology" - hopefully everyone will realize that he's had his fun, he's some wonderful combination of Saladin/Suleiman the Magnificent/Prophet Mohammed, and now he can go STFU and do his best to not get Lebanon bombed back to the stoneage again, and everyone can move on without the help of him, Bashar Assad and Ahmadinejad/Khameini.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 30, 2006 10:39 AM

Bad Vilbel, and maybe Achmedinijad doesn't really want to wipe Israel off the map either. Like SoCalJustice, I hope you're right, but you'll have to excuse me for thinking it's simply more of the same. Sometimes you just need to take people at their word, respond accordingly, and let the chips fall where they may.

Posted by: Josh at August 30, 2006 10:49 AM

Josh,

If you want to take people at their word. Why do you choose not to take this quote, from the same Saniora, to yesterday's LeMonde:

“Peace is the solution… Security is not about 10 meters here or there… It’s about being able to live in peace with its neighbors… At the end of the day, Israel will live among the Arabs. The time has come to solve this problem by Arabs accepting Israel and not through bloodshed and nurturing hate and murders.” (link)

You can't really take a guy at his word, when his word sounds different every day. You know? You've got to basically get past the words and look for actions. I'm not claiming that all is well, mind you. I don't know what Saniora's actions on the ground will result in, nor do I know what's going on behind the scenes. But I've learned to be patient and not to in a tizzy every time someone speaks a bunch of words.

Another example of words not meaning much: Nasrallah was talking about "victory" 2 weeks ago. Did you take him at his word? Now he's sounding a lot less bombastic. Do you take him at his word now? Or do you just ignore all the rethoric, and look at the facts on the ground? I choose the latter. I realize that Nasrallah, Saniora, and Olmert all have certain audiences they have to cater to. So I ignore the rethoric in their speeches, or rather, I read between the lines, and i look at the facts on the ground.

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 30, 2006 11:00 AM

Between Michael Totten's reporting and "Bad Vilbel's" commentary, this blog has become stupid good and an everyday must-read.

PJM is lucky to have MJT.

Posted by: AG in Houston at August 30, 2006 11:13 AM

"Stupid good"? :) I like that!

And yes, I think we're all very fortunate to have MJT's reporting and perspective.

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 30, 2006 11:20 AM

Quick update on my previous comments:

I listened to the Saniora press conference where he said Lebanon would be the last Arab country to make peace with Israel. It is important to look at the context. I won't translate the entire press conference, but it is becoming apparent to me that Saniora is walking a tight line at home.
There's pressure on the government to fall, coming from the pro-Syrian camp, namely Michel Aoun, who is stepping up his campaign, now that the fighting is over. And Sanioa spent a good chunk of his press conference reassuring people that his government was not about to fall, and so on. One has to take the "We won't make peace with Israel" comments in that context.
I think it is CRUCIAL for the success of 1701, for Lebanon and Israel's sake, that the Saniora government does not fall. And I think it Saniora has to be very careful what he says, so as not to give anyone the opportunity to topple his government.

(As a sidenote, I'm preparing a rather lengthy post looking into the internals of Lebanese politics, more specifically the Aoun-Hezbollah dynamic and its cause/effect on the July '06 war and on the current situation.)

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 30, 2006 11:46 AM

Umm, maybe he SHOULD fall off the tightrope...

Posted by: Josh at August 30, 2006 12:18 PM

bad vilbel,

what constitutes a successful implementation of 1701?

A lot of those weapons are already skirted away under ground, and will not be folded into the Lebanese army even if HA makes a show of allowing some of their fighters to be absorbed into the army.

They'll be keeping their weapons to intimidate and fight other Lebanese, not just the Zionists.

1701 also talks about unconditional release of the IDF soldiers that were captured. That is not going to happen.

Nor can Lebanon, on its own, ever secure its borders against Iran rearming HA through Syria.

And "full respect of the Blue Line" also means that S.F. is still officially not Lebanese, which could eventually revive the argument for an armed HA and make the government, at a minimum, lazy when it comes to disarming them.

1701 is extremely ambitious.

And as you know, I'm pretty pessimistic.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 30, 2006 12:54 PM

Josh,

If Saniora falls off the tightrope, you have a much worse situation on your hands (in Israel, I mean). You really don't want the pro-Syrian crowd to be back in charge, trust me.
Things might seem bleak right now (and I'm not saying they're all rosey), but they are at least moving in the right direction. I'm not looking JUST at 1701 or the past month. I'm taking a much wider view of things, dating back to 2005. Lebanon went from being a Syrian vassal, with free reign for terrorists, Hezbollah and whoever else, to slowly moving away from that. You have to look at this overall trend, which currently continues, to put things in perspective.

SoCalJustice,

I'm not talking about the "for show" confiscating the odd rifle here and there that you're seeing in the news today. I'm talking about a slow march towards REALLY disarming Hezbollah. I'm of the opinion, for example, that one of the reasons Saniora is not clamoring about the Israeli blockade (he has to fuss a bit, for show, but really he isn't talking about it THAT much) is because it serves his purposes of preventing HA from getting arms from Syria. I believe Saniora, in conjunction with the international community (and indirectly, Israel) is REALLY trying to figure out how to disarm Hezbollah EFFECTIVELY.

Now, whether he succeeds or not is a different matter.

As for S.F. It's a non-issue. Saniora has stated that the best way to get it resolved is by putting it under UN jurisdiction until a Lebanon-Syria border is truly delimited. I see no issue there.

The problem I see with all this is that this plan is all very easy to sabotage. All it takes is one suicide bomber blowing up a contingent of the new UNIFIL (circa 1983 Marine barracks, for example) and the whole thing goes to hell. And you can bet that Syria is looking to play that role of spoiler here. So we'll have to see what kind of mechanism the international community, Lebanon and Israel, can put in place to make sure that doesn't happen.

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 30, 2006 02:06 PM

I hate to hijack this thread, but here's a great write-up by Michael Young about why it is very important the Saniora government not fall.

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 30, 2006 02:32 PM

I don't want the Seniora government to fall - but I want him to be courageous and, at least on occassion, tell people what they need to hear rather than what they expect or want to hear.

Easier said than done in the Middle East, I realize.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 30, 2006 06:39 PM

You and me both, SoCal. You and me both.
I realize my posts on this blog seem to defend the man more than not. But I have been very critical of him and the Lebanese political establishment, on other blogs. The Lebanese people too, as a matter of fact (who need to stop following like sheep and start demanding more from their leaders).

This blog tends to be read by more "westerners" and Israelis, so I sometimes get bogged down trying to set the record straight when the "Lebanese do not want peace" crowd comes out of the woodwork.

Cheers.

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 30, 2006 08:25 PM

Bad Vilbel, if you can "set the record straight" on the Middle East, you will have accomplished what no other person has been able to achieve. Good Luck.

In 1967, Barbara Tuchman wrote, "Essentially the war was a conflict of societies whose terms can be seen any day on a road betwen Syria and Isral, literally brown on one side and green on the other. The Jews who made the state belong to the activist West, and through the Zionist experience of return, of colonizing and reviving the neglected land, of making it flourish and capable of supporting a modern nation, they have undergone a mental and emotional revolution. They have become masters of their fate instead of sufferers. Egypt and Syria, despite all the verbal socialism, have made no revolution, none that has reached down into the lives of the people. The Syrian peasant in a hovel on a miserable patch of ground, the Egyptian fellaheen of the delta with seven diseases per capita have no society so precious as to fight and die for."

While confessing that I am a fan of Mrs. Tuchman, her words are no less accurate today than they were almost forty years ago; change a few names/places, and it is still spot on.

And BV, your comment that I sound like Hezbollah is specious; I only want to kill all Arab Muslim Terrorists such as those that flew the planes into the WTC, or attempted to blow up ten planes coming from the UK into the US, or who wear bomb belts and blow themselves up in front of cafes, or who.....

It would be a bit more productive if the Arab Fanatics spent their energy on building countries instead of killing people in a perverted sense of religous righteousness or righting some real/imagined past injustice.

Regards,

Ron

Posted by: Ron Snyder at August 31, 2006 05:22 AM

bad vilbel,

As many others have said, I really appreciate reading your perspective here.

And I'm grateful to Michael for introducing Lebanese voices to the conversation.

And we know that outside of the pro-Hizballah crowd - and the Amal Saad Ghorayeb-style Hizballah worshippers - and the fringe portions of some of the other sects - that Lebanese people want peace.

It was apparent at the start of the War that all reasonable Lebanese people (and even some unreasonable ones) were against Hizballah's military incursion/kidnapping of the IDF soldiers, for whatever reason.

From what I gathered, most people did not want to be dragged into a military conflict with Israel, and most people did not want Hizballah to provide the Israelis with any reason or justifcation to do anything more than the occassional overflight or localized response in Southern Lebanon.

Lebanon was rebuilding, after all, and doing a pretty fine job of it - MJT's reporting really made me wish I could visit.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 31, 2006 06:15 AM

Ron,

A sensible comment. I can't deny that Israel has built itself a modern country, while Egypt and Syria have languished economically, and socially. Those are undeniable facts.

That is really neither here nor there though.

I'm all for getting rid of the violent extremists, as you say. I'd also like to see a prosperous and democratic Middle East. It is undeniable that democracy and prosperity, at the very least, lower fanaticism, and tend to detract people from violence and wars.

I'd argue that Arab societies as a whole are long due for some introspection and self-criticism. The former crown prince of Jordan (Hassan) recently wrote a very telling piece that echoes a lot of your comments here. The gist of which was that the arab world would've been much better off spending their energies on building, educating, modernizing, than on the vaguaries of war and violence. The arab regimes have spent far too much energy and time on Israel (one would argue, as a means of staying in power) than on their own people. The role of a true leader should be the serving of his people. I'll leave it at that.

PS: I can't find the link to the Prince Hassan piece, but it should be out there somewhere. A good read.

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 31, 2006 11:20 AM

SoCal,

You are correct. Most Lebanese did not want to be dragged into war, and still don't.

I have to show my true face here (the one critical of Lebanese and their leaders) and voice my disgust with the Lebanese leaders for allowing things to come to this. Yes, I know, we were rebuilding. And yes, I know, we were saddled with Syrian occupation for many years. I make allowances for that.
But in the end, the Lebanese leaders were more than happy to ignore the hezbollah problem, and hope it would magically go away. And what's worse, the Lebanese people, to this day, have not mustered that sense of nationalism and unity that's needed to establish a true sovereign nation.
I don't have the space or time here to get too much into the internal dynamics of Lebanon's sectarian system. But I'll say this: As long as the current system stays in place, Lebanon will remain weak and incapable of asserting itself as a strong united country.
Lebanon is run by concensus. This notion of ruling by making everyone happy doesn't work. You can't make everyone happy. And if you try, you end up paralyzed. The central government remains weak and at the mercy of any obstructionist (today, that happens to be the Aoun/Hezbollah axis). Furthermore that is not true democracy. It's democracy in disguise.

And for this to change, the Lebanese PEOPLE (not the leaders) need to wake up and demand, what amounts to a revolution. As long as they are content to follow these sectarian leaders like sheep, nothing will change much.

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 31, 2006 11:26 AM

"No one thinks non-native Americans should have to pack up and go back to Europe or wherever else their families came from."
Because the native Americans are citizens, that's why. When Israel makes the Palestinians citizens, no-one will think the Jews have to pack up and go back to Europe and America. America is going to less than 50% white in a few years, and nobody cares much except Pat Buchanan.

But personally I think the Jews (the Askenazi at least) will pack up and go back to Europe and America. The key is that comment "literally brown on one side and green on the other." The land shouldn't be green -- it indicates Israel is draining the water table.

The Jews will pack and leave when they run out of water, and that's really going to be no-one's fault but your own.

actually, this is a good blog, but what pissed me off this morning was the headline in jpost.com that the first demands for the release of Palestinian prisoners is for some "500 juvenile females." What is Israel doing jailing hundreds of young girls in the first place? This fights terrorism exactly how?

Posted by: Diana at September 1, 2006 08:03 AM

"But personally I think the Jews (the Askenazi at least) will pack up and go back to Europe and America."

You don't know a lot of Israelis or Jews, do you?

"The Jews will pack and leave when they run out of water, and that's really going to be no-one's fault but your own."

Ohh kay.

Keep hope alive!

Posted by: SoCalJustice at September 1, 2006 08:10 AM

Diana,

You’re right. They should have shot them dead. ALL of them.

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