Michael J. Totten: Arrival

August 09, 2006

Arrival

TEL AVIV – Tel Aviv is surreally normal under the circumstances. The soft beaches – and these are some of the best in the Mediterranean – are packed with sunbathers, tourists, and probably refugees. Restaurants, cafes, shops, and bars, are all open. I hear languages from all over the world in the lobby of my hotel. Some of these people are obvious tourists, dutifully attending vacations they booked long before the shadow of war hung over the city.

If it weren’t for the military aircraft ominously flying low over the beach on their way to pound Hezbollah, this could be Miami. Or – dare I say it? – Beirut.

Meanwhile, Kiryat Shmona in the north is a bad place today, darkened, covered in smoke, all but abandoned, and randomly exploding like a miniature Sarajevo. If Hezbollah had long range missiles they could really turn the lights out on this country. That’s why the Israelis are trying to deal with them now rather than later.

What the Israelis intend to do to prevent Iran from shipping them an even more formidable arsenal in the future still isn’t clear. Knocking Hezbollah off the border won’t do anything if they acquire more serious weapons. They already have a much greater range than the length of the intended buffer zone anyway.

I’d be lying if I said it’s scary here or that I’m nervous. It isn’t, and I’m not. But I do find my eyes wandering north every couple of minutes, not so much because I’m watching the skies but to remind myself that I’m perched on the edge of an inferno. Safe for the time being, but barely.

The Lebanon war has all but eclipsed the ongoing problems with the Palestinians. Not once in my first four hours in country – and this is highly unusual for someone unaccustomed to being in Israel – not once did I think about suicide bombers...

Postscript: I just got here and don’t have much of substance to report yet. But I’ll get to that as soon as I recover from travel exhaustion and get some field work under my belt. Please hit the Pay Pal link and help me cover travel expenses so I can stay longer.

If you would like to donate money for travel expenses and you don't want to use Pay Pal, you can send a check or money order to:

Michael Totten
P.O. Box 312
Portland, OR 97207-0312

Many thanks in advance.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at August 9, 2006 10:10 AM

Comments

Michael,

Glad you made it there safely. I can't wait to read more substantive stuff, once you've rested and settled in.

Peace

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 9, 2006 10:49 AM

I would like to know what the percentages are of tourists/ journalists/ refugees in Tel Aviv.

Keep your eyes up and your head down.

Posted by: Gaius at August 9, 2006 10:52 AM

Michael,

Glad you made it there safely. I can't wait to read more substantive stuff, once you've rested and settled in.

Peace

Posted by: bad vilbel at August 9, 2006 10:53 AM

Glad you've arrived safely and that things appear fairly normal in Tel Aviv. I'd like to know if it's true that the Israelis have changed the General in charge of the war, and if this means they'll step it up?

Have a great trip, and I wish I could contribute, but my crappy salary barely pays my bills....

I really admire your work.

Posted by: DuchessOfAustin at August 9, 2006 11:42 AM

Well, that "normal" is about to change. We're gonna have tent-camps in town for the northerners.
Tse.

Posted by: tsedek at August 9, 2006 12:26 PM

Hi MJT, when you're on the beach you should seek out some male and female sunbathing soldiers on furlough from the north (or the West Bank... or Gaza....).

They are usually the ones with toned bodies and M16s planted upright besides their beach towels.

Posted by: jjdynomite at August 9, 2006 12:45 PM

Michael, since you said you'd heed advice more from paying visitors, AND because you're a swell guy and an internet treasure, I've slipped you a little something via Paypal.

My advice is, don't sightsee! Roll up your sleeves and get to work interviewing people. Local gov't flacks, kibbutzim, religious leaders, librarians, etc. We don't want any parachute journalism, certainly not from you! Photo-bloggage from Israel we can get anywhere.

I read a column in the J-Post by a pundit named Caroline Glick, accusing Olmert of indecision and half-measures. From here in the USA, it seems that Israel is blowing Lebanon to the moon and back, yet she accuses the gov't of making a pulled-punches war. Very eye-opening. I'm sure there are many other facets of the domestic scene there that would be novel to us back here. Take us inside the Israeli political climate and social scene, rather than just making snappy with the digital camera (not that those haven't been great, btw.)

And stay safe. From LGF I learned that this is the 5th anniversary of the Sbarro pizzeria bombing.

Posted by: The Sanity Inspector at August 9, 2006 01:33 PM

Michael,

Please continue to do what you do best -- travel where you please, writing down your excellent observations without bias. Since you are currently in Israel, I await your descriptions of Israel at war -- the good, the bad, and the ugly. We certainly get enough so-called "journalism" about Hezb'allah at war, with staged and doctored photos. Now for some TRUTH...

Posted by: QuantumDefect at August 9, 2006 01:36 PM

TheSanityInspector- On some level, Israel is fighting a pulled-punches war, which is what the public there is annoyed about. For example, 15 soldiers were killed in fighting in Bnit Jbeil today. The Israeli public wants to know why Bnit Jbeil still exists- after all, the non-Hizballah residents are generally gone, so what's the problem with turning it into a crater?

Of course, on the other side, the Israelis are blowing portions of Beirut to bits, not to mention Qana, etc. It certainly takes ground forces getting in, but the Israeli public's version of prepping the area with air power simply isn't happenning.

Posted by: Josh at August 9, 2006 02:36 PM

Full Moon tonight and clear skies...not exactly optimal conditions for the IDF to expand its operations, Josh.

Posted by: monkyboy at August 9, 2006 03:47 PM

Mike...

While in Tel Aviv, you have to have a drink @ Mike's Place, right next to the American Embassy on the beach. If you can time it with the sunset, you'll be in for a special treat. The discussions found here are varied and animated.....covering all bases, with people from all walks of life from all different places.

It's a treat......and say "hi" to Dal, the owner.....a prince of a man, along with his staff....

Steve from MD

Posted by: Steve at August 9, 2006 04:38 PM

well..i know that lebanon is so nice..u don´t have to say it...and cause you are staying in tel aviv..you must know what is going on there..you must say what these israelis are doing in lebanon...you must tell the world who is the bad guy there...you said that there´s fear in tel aviv,you must say alsou that the people in lebanpon are getting killed ..they are innocent people....you must tell the world ...so tell you´re people ...!!

Posted by: lebanese at August 9, 2006 05:09 PM

Monkyboy-
It's the middle east during the summer. Practically every night for the next month, at least, will be clear. Also, note that I only made a brief comment regarding ground forces. The question that most Israelis that I know are asking is not "why haven't we expaned the ground operation," but "why are we sending in troops to Bnit Jbeil and such places when we can simply bomb them flat?" In other words, the feeling is that this is another Jenin (where Israel went in with ground forces and lost a lot of troops, rather than simply destroying the neighbourhood- and any civilians- with artillery and planes), and that the lives of Israeli soldiers are infinitely more valuable than the lives of Lebanese civillians who haven't evacuated. Note that I haven't said in any of this whether or not I support that position, but it's certainly one that's out there.

Posted by: Josh at August 9, 2006 06:11 PM

Michael,

You are doing outstanding job. Thanks!

If you're planning to go up North, I can recommend one place overthere. I happened to be at that hotel in Nov, 2005 during "Rajar incident", while travelling on bussines. It's called Hagoshrim. Price is good, bar is full, food is very fresh, and people are great. They have new solid concrete building built into hill, facing opposite lebanese border, with big bomb shelter. And...location, location, location. It's 3 miles from Rajar on one side, and Kiriat Shmona on the other. Hotel is owned by kibbutz, and people are interesting to talk to. Based on what I can see on CNN, and FOX, they sometimes report from that location, and probably staying there. But it's just a quess.

Good luck, and stay safe.

Posted by: VS_NJ at August 9, 2006 06:17 PM

for the lebanese friend :

I think you got it somewhat wrong – Hezbollah kidnapping, shooting, bombing etc. etc. from Lebanon for the last six years - The Lebanon ppl & government did not step in for 6 years (and many time support those actions)
Lebanon ppl. now can blame only Hezbollah and themselves,

From the shelter in the north of Israel

P.S.
Mike it is not a great time to came north wait for few days

Posted by: rrs at August 9, 2006 06:46 PM

Josh,

Air power is kinda worthless against Hezbollah.

F-16s are expensive to fly and the bombs they drop are expensive, too.

Bomb craters make for excellent defensive positions and are also perfect pre-dug holes for IEDs.

Israel needs to either send in their troops or hire some scientists that know how to build a missile defense system that actually works...

There's no way the scientists will do anything (missile defense is their biggest make-work program), look for a ground attack when the moon wanes a bit...too bright now.

Posted by: monkyboy at August 9, 2006 06:50 PM

Keep safe!

Posted by: Nouri at August 9, 2006 07:26 PM

Israel needs to either send in their troops or hire some scientists that know how to build a missile defense system that actually works.--Monkyboy

While I have almost invariably disagreed with MB on just about everything, I think he is 100% correct in this evaluation.

I frankly don't have a clue about the 'deeper' strategy behind the Israeli Campaign, but the failure to commit overwhelming 'ground' forces long before this has been ,IMO, a mistake of the greatest magnitude.

Air-power is vastly overrated against a dug-in irregular force. As Israel has found to its cost over the past 4 weeks.

I did read an interesting article today on the lack of preparedness in the Reserve System in Israel, which may explain some of the 'problems' that have cropped up. Maybe in a backhanded way it is a 'good' thing that these systemic flaws have been exposed now instead of years later.

Now they can be corrected.Perhaps MJT can talk to Israelis about how they think the Reserve System is working (or not) in this crisis.

Posted by: dougf at August 9, 2006 08:24 PM

rrs: it is not a great time to came north wait for few days

Please email me. Thanks.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 9, 2006 08:41 PM

Michael,

I can't believe you're THERE already. You were just HERE the other day.

It feels so strange. It feels so crazy.

And you were just in the Middle East, in fact, in Tel Aviv a few weeks ago.

And I'm the one who's supposed to be in the Middle East writing to you in the States. The world is on its head.

Posted by: lebanon.profile at August 9, 2006 09:44 PM

Hi Michael,
Ignore the rantings of "Lebanese" above and enjoy yourself in Tel-Aviv .. well as much as possible, under the current circumstances.

Don't go around telling Israelis that innocent Lebanese are getting killed, you'll look like damn fool. If you interview them, you will see that Israelis all remember the perils of invading Lebanon and have a very reluctant approach to the current conflict, but are involved out of a sense of necessity and survival.

Why doesn't our Lebanese friend go around the villages of Lebanon telling Hezbollah fanatics to stop shelling Israeli towns ? I guess he isn't so concerned with innocent lives after all.

Posted by: Jono at August 9, 2006 09:54 PM

Michael-

Note that the missiles capable of reaching Tel Aviv are Zelzal 1s and 2s, and are pretty massive (i.e., truck mounted...the Zelzal 2s are based on FROG7s, which puts them at 30 feet long). It's certainly possible for Hezbollah to fire them, and to get more, but relatively speaking they're pretty hard to hide too. It's probably difficult for Hezbollah to bring them into the "buffer" zone in the first place, since they're obvious targets. I'm still trying to find a good map with ranges superimposed, but from the ones I remember seeing, Zelzal 1s should be around the edge of their range for hitting Tel Aviv, especially if the "buffer zone" is implimented.

Posted by: Josh at August 9, 2006 10:34 PM

Yeah do not mention the Lebanese cuz they deserve to die since they were unable to flush the weapons of Hezbollah.

Funny how you mention the Israelis once you were in Lebanon but would not mention the Lebanese now.

1000 deaths are apparently not enough.

Posted by: Lira at August 9, 2006 10:59 PM

I just got here, Lira. I haven't had time to do or write anything yet. I'm still getting myself oriented, making phone calls, etc.

Anyway, all I can really do is observe and document what's happening here. I am not going to cheerlead the destruction of Lebanon if that's what you're worried about. It is neither my inclination nor my job to do so.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 9, 2006 11:12 PM

Yeah do not mention the Lebanese cuz they deserve to die since they were unable to flush the weapons of Hezbollah.

That's complete bullshit, by the way.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 9, 2006 11:13 PM

^^ This is what many people on your blog have been hinting or saying out loud.

Posted by: Lira at August 9, 2006 11:40 PM

When 11 students from Egypt land in the US but fail to show up for school, its enough to make one wonder.

11 missing Egyptian university students could show up August 22nd... but I hope they get picked up sooner. Don*t you?

NewsMax speculates, to be sure, but I find thinking ahead to be useful and interesting.

The Wall Street Journal is not at all a Lightweight . You may want to visit their thinker view on this. [Aug 22nd]

http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=11000876

[WSJ] = TG

Posted by: TG at August 9, 2006 11:55 PM

Yes you can write it - Beirut. That is what is so sad. A German friend of mine got a 2nd passport and went to Beirut to study Arabic, came back saying that it and TA are twins - and would provide perfect weekend hangouts for the other city´s residents.

So maybe there is a story: An ideal Beirut and TA, similarities and what Hizbulla is really destroying

Posted by: IsraDane at August 10, 2006 01:37 AM

Oh, and I second Mike´s Place - the owner´s name is Gal, not Dal.

Posted by: IsraDane at August 10, 2006 01:39 AM

While I have almost invariably disagreed with MB on just about everything, I think he is 100% correct in this evaluation.

It's always disconcerting when that happens.

Yeah, a battlefield is not the place for half-measures. OTOH, there are good historical reasons the Israelis would be reluctant to go into Lebanon in force- they've tried it before, and the results were very unsatisfactory. It's easy to see why they would try alternatives before resorting to that.

Air-power is vastly overrated against a dug-in irregular force. As Israel has found to its cost over the past 4 weeks.

This should not have been news to the Israelis, especially after the US's experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq. Rooting out insurgents requires infantry, airpower can't do the job on it's own.

Posted by: rosignol at August 10, 2006 02:50 AM

Please do not write about how the poor Lebanese are suffering; if I wanted that commentary I would read LP. If they do not have the resolve and courage to fight the terrorists, then they deserve all the destruction their country gets.

The LEBS voted Hezbollah into the Lebanese government, the LEBS allowed Hezbollah to become what appears to be the strongest military force in the country. Yes, perhaps I am a naive American, but sometimes "a cigar is just a cigar". It need not be Byzantine, at least not on a macro scale.

A free country doesn't come free, and if the Lebs are not willing to pay the price, then I do not give a damn about them or their situation. We have paid our price for freedom (many times actually, and almost assuredly will have to again), so should the Lebs if they want to be free of dictators or terrorists.

I think that you were letting your love of Beirut color your comments; it is your blog so I cannot fault it, but I hope you do not become, as LP is in my opinion, an apologist for the Lebs.

Regards,

Ron

Posted by: Ron Snyder at August 10, 2006 05:13 AM

I third Mike's Place, especially considering what happened there. Wrote about it here.

Posted by: David Boxenhorn at August 10, 2006 05:47 AM

Snyder you are a dork, the lebs let hizbullah arm? how about the US and others gave Lebanon to Syria after the first gulf war as their prize for being in the coalition against Saddam. Syria occupied lebanon till 2005 and Israel occupied South Lebanon till 2000. There was a great article in the WSJ yesterday about the state of the lebanese army and the reasons for its weakness, the largest being, syrian machinations coupled with an unwillingness of the US and Israel to see a stronger lebanese army given Syrian dominance of the security apparatus. That reality only changed in 2005. So the lebanese did not let hizbullah do anything, they were not allowed to by occupying forces. there is genuine support for Hizbullah in some sectors of lebanese society and yes they hold seats in the lebanese parliament but that is another issue.
Pay the price for freedom, you are so talking out of your ass, there has not been a conflict on US soil since the civil war, you have no idea what war is like, maybe you served in the military, but there is a huge difference between serving abroad in the armed forces and being a hapless civilian with your livelihood and homes destroyed completely powerless. At least the Israelis who comment know what war is about, so if I disagree with some of their comments I know where they are coming from, but for people lobbing "freedom isn't free" from halfway around the world, please...

Posted by: hummbumm at August 10, 2006 05:52 AM

Air power is kinda worthless against Hezbollah. F-16s are expensive to fly and the bombs they drop are expensive, too. Bomb craters make for excellent defensive positions and are also perfect pre-dug holes for IEDs.

The gruesome answer may be a weapon that Israel has employed in past street fighting from time to time: Flechette. And yes, it is little more than a hi-tech nail bomb.

Posted by: The Sanity Inspector at August 10, 2006 06:56 AM

Snyder you are a dork,

While I would not suggest Snyder become a Foreign Service Officer, it should be remembered that ad hominem attacks do not a persuasive argument make. Even when the other guy is being a jerk.

the lebs let hizbullah arm? how about the US and others gave Lebanon to Syria after the first gulf war as their prize for being in the coalition against Saddam.

The US pulled what forces it had in Lebanon out in '83, after the marine barracks bombing, which was well before GW1.

Saying the US 'gave Lebanon to Syria' implies a level of US involvement with the place that just doesn't exist.

Syria occupied lebanon till 2005 and Israel occupied South Lebanon till 2000. There was a great article in the WSJ yesterday about the state of the lebanese army and the reasons for its weakness, the largest being, syrian machinations coupled with an unwillingness of the US and Israel to see a stronger lebanese army given Syrian dominance of the security apparatus.

The US (and Israel) may not have wanted a stronger Syrian-dominated Lebanese military... but if the preferences of the US and Israel are that influential in Lebanon, how did Hizbullah get so strong? Surely the US (and Israel) want a strong Hizbullah even less than they wanted a stronger Syrian-dominated Lebanese military.

Sorry, but the US isn't the problem here, Syria is... and the sooner people in Lebanon figure that out and do something about it, the better.

That reality only changed in 2005. So the lebanese did not let hizbullah do anything, they were not allowed to by occupying forces.

Being occupied doesn't seem to stop the Palestinians from raising hell. Why does it stop the Lebanese?

there is genuine support for Hizbullah in some sectors of lebanese society and yes they hold seats in the lebanese parliament but that is another issue.

Well, it's long past time that the rest of the Lebanese population decided if it wanted hizbullah speaking for them, acting on your behalf, and dragging all of Lebanon into a war Lebanon's not going to win.

I'm afraid this is a situation where silence and lack of action is taken as consent. If you don't consent to having Hizbullah determine Lebanon's foreign policy with regards to your strongest neighbor, it's time to make that clear.

In case you are wondering, Assad is quite willing to fight Israel to the very last Lebanese.

Pay the price for freedom, you are so talking out of your ass, there has not been a conflict on US soil since the civil war,

Do you realize how stupid that sounds?

If you'd said "We are not willing to die in order to expel Hizbullah from Lebanon" you'd be honest.

If you'd said "We will need help kicking Hizbullah out of Lebanon" we'd get somewhere.

If you'd said "Please help us kick Hizbullah out of Lebanon", this crap would have been over two weeks ago.

But no, most of the commentary coming out of Lebanon is something along the lines of "We're too weak to stop Hizbullah, and don't you dare do it for us".

I'm starting to think Lebanon is just a place, not a nation.

People are willing to die for nations. They're not willing to die for places.

you have no idea what war is like, maybe you served in the military, but there is a huge difference between serving abroad in the armed forces and being a hapless civilian with your livelihood and homes destroyed completely powerless.

What does that have to do with anything?

Complaining about how helpless, powerless, ineffectual and weak you are just tells the SOBs on this planet that they can push you around and get away with it.

At least the Israelis who comment know what war is about, so if I disagree with some of their comments I know where they are coming from, but for people lobbing "freedom isn't free" from halfway around the world, please...

...nevermind that damn near all of the Americans who have died in wars in the last century died so people who weren't Americans could be free.

I'd tell you to go to hell, but it sounds like you're already there.

Posted by: rosignol at August 10, 2006 08:44 AM

Ask the Israeli people if they share their government's apparent death wish. Ask them if they also are "tired of fighting" and "tired of winning". Ask them if they have any plans to throw the government out for mismanaging the war. Ask them if the rumors about an impending military coup have any merit. Ask them if they still think leaving Gaza was such a great idea. Ask them if they support the creation of a similar platform for terrorism in Judea and Samaria. Ask them when they plan on clipping Ahmedinejad.
There's a million questions I'd like to ask them.

Posted by: Kim Hartveld at August 10, 2006 09:02 AM

Rosignol, it was a very clear quid pro quo in 1990 that the US signed off on Syrian occupation of lebanon, plus the lebanese military's main source of arms is the US, so if the US was unwilling to provide arms, there are not much arms to be had. My point is if you have not been through war you do not know how terrible war is, so the expectations that a country that suffered over 150K killed in a civil war, not counting 15-20K killed in the Israeli invasion of 1982, would then choose to launch another civil war because "freedom isn't free". I am sorry but you don't qualify for having experienced war and having fought for freedom because a forefather fought at Normandy, you have to experience things directly. US suffered the loss of 400K during WW2, all servicemen, from a pop of 130m at the time, but came back to a country and economy virtually untouched. Why do you think Europeans are pacifist, not because they are all spineless, but because the losses suffered were much larger, civilian and economic and societal as well as purely military casualties. Yes lebanon is weak, it is a small country with borders with a dictatorship that has occupied it for many years, and does not believe in its independence (Syria) and Israel, that has occupied it for many years etc.. Of course the lebanese bear responsibility for some things, but some things are beyond their capabilities. It is like the cops sitting back and expecting the locals to take back their neighborhood from the crips, you need to have a policeman walk the beat as well.
I am not going to dissect your comment on US wars, we definitely deserve kudos for WW2 and Korea. I am as proud to be an american as anyone else, i just grew up in beirut, and suffered the loss of home, disruption of schooling and all the hardship of wars with the only blessing of no loss of loved ones, I was evacuated by the marines in 1984, at the age of 12, and so I bring something maybe you have not experienced, the sense of powerlessness, to actually be weak, to be unarmed in a war, to be scared shitless as you smell burning rubber and choke on dust in a dark, dingy basement with screaming babies around you thinking you are going to die. Maybe you should think how your life would be somewhere else, before calling people cowards. Lebanon as a nation is screwy yes, but that does not mean the lives of those there are worthless, it is bit like blaming the victim, hey you guys deserve this, I mean you could not get rid of Hizbullah, so you deserve this. Of course the irony is Israel can't seem to get rid of Hizbullah, do they now deserve it?

Posted by: hummbumm at August 10, 2006 10:33 AM

Sorry to tell you, hummbumm, but the Europeans ARE spineless and it's not because they suffered economic and social losses in war. Europeans have fought many, many wars in the past several hundred years that decimated whole sections of the continent each time so, unless they are irredeemably stupid (and I admit it is a possibility), they would have sworn off war before the 20th century came along. No, they're spineless because, like the Lebanese, they willingly surrendered themselves to fascism and appeasement and they still cannot overcome their shame. Like you, their response is to wallow in self-pity and blame their victims (the Jews) and their liberators (the Americans) in equal measure.

Posted by: liam at August 10, 2006 04:23 PM

Hummbumm, I confess to being a dork at certain times, on certain topics, or with certain people.

I have served in the military (USAF '71-74) and I did spend time overseas in a number of jungles building bombs and putting them on planes -no combat though. My father left a number of his body parts in his walk from France to Germany in 1944-45 (BTW, he also volunteered and placed his life in jeopardy to preserve freedom). I was not as brave as he was, hence the USAF instead of the Army for me .

(Rosignol, I agree that I should not apply to become an FSO!)

Though I disagree with some of MT's views, he is one of the best bloggers out there and I will continue to support him, as I do Michael Yon.

Ron

Posted by: Ron Snyder at August 10, 2006 04:51 PM

Rosignol, it was a very clear quid pro quo in 1990 that the US signed off on Syrian occupation of lebanon, plus the lebanese military's main source of arms is the US,

...back in the 1980s, sure.

That was a quarter-century ago, and a lot has changed since then.

so if the US was unwilling to provide arms, there are not much arms to be had.

You're either making a bad joke, or you know next to nothing about the international arms trade.

The Russians (not necessarily the Russian government) will sell pretty much anything to anyone able to pay cash. Ditto Singapore and France, so long as you're discreet about it.

If Lebanon wasn't able to get guns, it's because they're not looking, not because weapons were unavaliable.

My point is if you have not been through war you do not know how terrible war is,

War is as close as you can come to hell without dying.

so the expectations that a country that suffered over 150K killed in a civil war, not counting 15-20K killed in the Israeli invasion of 1982, would then choose to launch another civil war because "freedom isn't free".

You still don't get it.

You can fight a civil war to be free to run your own country, or you can fight a war against Israel whenever Tehran, Damascus, or Hizbullahland considers it convenient.

The question was not if there is going to be a war, the question was when, and who it would be against- Israel or Hizbullah.

Do you understand that?

Until the Lebanese government is in control of it's own territory and is able to prevent Hizbullah from attacking Israel, a lasting peace will be impossible.

I am sorry but you don't qualify for having experienced war and having fought for freedom because a forefather fought at Normandy, you have to experience things directly.

Irrelevant.

US suffered the loss of 400K during WW2, all servicemen, from a pop of 130m at the time, but came back to a country and economy virtually untouched.

The territory was untouched, the economy was in bad shape. When wartime production stopped, the factories that had been going 24/7/365 stopped making tanks, bombers, ammo, etc. Everyone working in them was out of work. Managing the transition from a wartime command economy to a peacetime economy is one of the most astounding and overlooked accomplishments of the postwar era.

Why do you think Europeans are pacifist, not because they are all spineless, but because the losses suffered were much larger, civilian and economic and societal as well as purely military casualties.

Europeans? Pacifist? HAhahahahahaha! Pull the other one...

I think Europeans are just idiots about certain aspects of human nature. Particularly with regards to what a certain kind of person does when they see rich countries with weak militaries.

Of all the people on earth, you'd think Europeans would have figured out that if you're rich, you'd better be able to deter your poorer and more aggressive neighbors if you don't want to get robbed. Hell, that was the basis for the entire 'colonial' era- all that wealth, and the people who had it were armed with spears.

Yes lebanon is weak, it is a small country with borders with a dictatorship that has occupied it for many years, and does not believe in its independence (Syria) and Israel, that has occupied it for many years etc.. Of course the lebanese bear responsibility for some things, but some things are beyond their capabilities.

Actually, the rest of the planet has a pretty good idea of what is and is not beyond Lebanon's capabilities. Lebanon getting rid of Hizbullah on it's own wasn't possible, I know that. What Lebanon doesn't seem to realize is that as soon as it declares Hizbullah an unwelcome insurgency, disavows it's actions, and asks for help in driving Hizbullah from it's territory, assistance will be forthcoming.

The Israelis would greatly prefer to have the Lebanese Army on the border instead of Hizbullah. The US wants to eliminate an Iranian and Syrian proxy. France remembers that Hizbullah has killed French soldiers, and so on.

It is like the cops sitting back and expecting the locals to take back their neighborhood from the crips, you need to have a policeman walk the beat as well.

This is one of the most persistent misconceptions about international relations.

A lot of people fail to understand that at the global level, there are no police.

There are strong nations that other nations form alliances with in order to gain some measure of protection. Depending on who the smaller nation allies with, the alliance will result in the smaller nation being expected to do (or not do) certain things.

That is how the world works.

I am not going to dissect your comment on US wars, we definitely deserve kudos for WW2 and Korea. I am as proud to be an american as anyone else, i just grew up in beirut, and suffered the loss of home, disruption of schooling and all the hardship of wars with the only blessing of no loss of loved ones, I was evacuated by the marines in 1984, at the age of 12, and so I bring something maybe you have not experienced, the sense of powerlessness, to actually be weak, to be unarmed in a war, to be scared shitless as you smell burning rubber and choke on dust in a dark, dingy basement with screaming babies around you thinking you are going to die. Maybe you should think how your life would be somewhere else, before calling people cowards.

When did I do that?

Lebanon as a nation is screwy yes, but that does not mean the lives of those there are worthless, it is bit like blaming the victim, hey you guys deserve this, I mean you could not get rid of Hizbullah, so you deserve this.

Deserve it?

No, not really. Hizbullah deserves it, yes, but not all Lebanon.

The problem is that Hizbullah has wrapped itself around Lebanon to the point where it is impossible to harm one without also harming the other.

This is deliberate, and it is Hizbullah's fault.

Of course the irony is Israel can't seem to get rid of Hizbullah, do they now deserve it?

In this world, what people get and what they deserve frequently have little to do with each other.

Posted by: rosignol at August 11, 2006 04:38 AM

I love how feeling sympathy for civilian casualties makes one spineless. let me state my position clearly for all. A military solution to Hizbullah will not work in my mind, if i thought it would I would suck up the destruction of lebanon because the future would indeed be brighter ex. Hizbullah, but as I don't(and as the Israeli government seems to agree with me as it backtracks on a day to day basis on what its goals are), we are left with a rather useless enterprise similar to 1996 Grapes of Wrath. So is it spineless to explore other options?
On another note, everyone acknowledges that Syria and Iran are the paymasters of Hizbullah, but the Israelis have not chosen to expand the conflict beyond Lebanon to the dismay of some here in the U.S, Michael Ledeen and such. Are they spineless for not doubling down on a regional conflict? No I think they are cautious and realize more than some here that real lives are at stake, that it is not a wargames scenario. One can agree with Israeli goals while questioning methods and strategy. I don't think the strategy will work.
You may all disagree, we shall see, but if the stratey does not work well then those lives lost will be in vain. Sometimes negotiations are not a sign of weakness but the best alternative, war is not the goal, a peaceful border is the goal, and there may be other ways to achieve this.
As to finding weapons from elsewhere, notice how we are finding surplus soviet weaponry for Iraqi troops because that is what they have trained on. Well Lebanon has always been supplied from the West namely the US, the idea that it is easy to midstream transition everything to another source of supply, and increase one's capabilities, just does not work. We are not talking about buying a few guns, you would have to retrain everyone on maintenance and capabilities etc....
Since my great grandfather was a WW1 fighter ace for the US and my grandfather spied for the british against Vichy France, does that qualify me as one who understands freedom?

Posted by: hummbumm at August 11, 2006 05:24 AM

A military solution to Hizbullah will not work in my mind. If I thought it would I would suck up the destruction of lebanon because the future would indeed be brighter ex. Hizbullah, but as I don't(and as the Israeli government seems to agree with me as it backtracks on a day to day basis on what its goals are), we are left with a rather useless enterprise similar to 1996 Grapes of Wrath. So is it spineless to explore other options?---hummbumm

I don't know about the rest of the 'all' who might well disagree, but I think you are right. Or at least right in regard to the type of campaign actually conducted. Perhaps a 'major' ground attack might have had better results. Perhaps not. But I agree with you that this one has been a mess with spectacularly 'unsuccessful' results.

It never hurts to point out the truth even if it is painful to hear. And it is in this case. Very painful.

Major shakeups pending in Israel. In the Government. In the Knesset. In the IDF.

Posted by: dougf at August 11, 2006 07:33 AM

Now to the root of the problem..

Madmud Almondjeans* rantings about the importance of August 22nd must bring up the question of a pre-emtive strike.

A precision strike upon Iranian nuclear sites any time before August 22nd must be under review by Israel and the West.

The logic seems sound enough. The only question is whether Iran is provoking and expecting a strike, and I doubt that they are.

Would a pre-emptive strike from the West stop Iran from becoming the head of the whole Middle East and Muslim world in general by throwing their plan off course?

Curious question in a way. It could mean that Persians would be the leaders and controllers of hundreds of millions of Muslims, should they actually be allowed to win with their plan.

There are many Arab nations and leaders who do not want this to happen, not to mention the democratic free world. = TG

Fri Aug 11, 04:31:19 PM UTC

And you also, who have the background knowledge and analytical ability to make important decisions, What is your plan regarding a precision strike to Iran nuclear targets before August 22nd?

We failed to smoke Hezbollah in 1983 when they killed 241 marines. Reagan gave the go - ahead, but Secretary Winberger stopped it.

Reagan eventually forgave his lifelong friend. I would have had him court martialled.! Oooops..gave my view away there.

So what would mature and responsible thinkers like you, who are well suited to lead countries do, before August 22nd, and why?

= TG

Posted by: TG at August 11, 2006 12:21 PM

Good luck to you Michael. I dropped something in your tip jar. Take care.

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