I'm sorry that I can't afford to spare any money for this, but my best wishes go with you (and if I prayed, I'd be sending some of them, too!). I trust you to be honest about what you see.

Good luck!

Good luck!

Good luck with the trip and please continue the excellent writing. I do not know if you ahve considered this, but ahve you thought of maybe posting some of your interviews of thoughts in a short video. Brain-Terminal does somehting like that and I thought it would be really interesting to see these people you speak to. Again it is just an idea and if not feasible please ignore.

Do you have access to donations in Israel or anywhere in teh ME? If so, do we send it to your PO box or to you directly in the ME?

I hope you have a second passport, or your interrogation might be longer than last time.

Good luck. That said, you could do a lot worse for your personal safety than being embedded with the IDF.

As to how long your interview will be, that largely depends on your history, and your demeanor. Things are not always as they seem, and you're unlikely to get clued in on what it is that's either increased or decreased the level of attention you get.

how close can you hope to get, I might be watching an imbeded report by CNN on the beach and see you spread out in the sun sipping a pina colada

You're a brave guy. I "got" the message in your photos with no problem; that Hezbollah has completely permeated South Lebanon with a vicious culture of death. I've featured your blog on mine this morning and I'll be sending along some money in a few minutes. Good luck.

They want a ceasefire, but they don't really:

Lebanon demands ceasefire

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=578&u=/nm/20060807/ts_nm/mideast_dc_37

Lebanon Rejects Ceasefire

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/06082006/140/lebanon-rejects-ceasefire-resolution.html

Marty - Israel has ATM machines and Visa cards and everything.

You can get a Visa card on a PayPal account, so I'm sure Michael can access donations direct in Israel if he wants to.

Mmmmmmm ... an internationally monitered border. Great idea! Oh wait, we tried that. Never mind.

Michael,

Good luck and godspeed. Stay safe out there. Here's hoping you can stay as level-headed and objective as you've always been (it can be a lot harder than doing so in peacetime).

No money to spare for now, so it's just my prayers. I know you can't eat those, but they might do something.

Keep your head down.

No money to spare for now, so it's just my prayers. I know you can't eat those, but they might do something.

Keep your head down.

Passage of the UN ceasefire resolution is now being delayed until at least the end of this week due to Lebanese and Arab objections.

Immediate ceasefire and negotiating a withdrawl are simply incompatible.
There is simply no way around the fact that it is now Lebanon and other Arab states which are delaying the ceasefire
The time and place to negotiate the words and terms and timing of an Israeli withdrawl is obviously in the larger political agreement. It's also obviously going to be contingent on the international force arriving together with the Lebanese army.

You're nuts. Try not to get yourself killed. Don't get in range of anyone's artillery.

Michael: You're an incredible man. Go get 'em. I'm sure your reports will be among the best. And please be safe.

Michael:

Good luck. And I still mean to meet up with you for that beer once you're back in Stumptown, so you have to come back safe.

I can't believe the Labanese Army or any International force would be willing to fire on civilian targets to take out Hezbollah's rocket launchers...

I hit the tip jar. I hope it helps! And have a safe one!

Shawn

“I can't believe the Labanese Army or any International force would be willing to fire on civilian targets to take out Hezbollah's rocket launchers...”

If this is indeed the case, then we will inevitably lose the war on terror. We must be willing to accept civilian casualties. This is not negotiable. The western world’s leaders must follow the example of Winston Churchill and FDR.

David,

Churchill and FDR sat around twiddling their fingers while Stalin defeated the Nazis.

This time, as in Vietnam, the U.S. has taken the lead...we got nobody to do all the dirty work for us...except a few weary Brits and Canadians...

Please stop using WWII as a guide...Vietnam and the Phillipine-American War are far more relevant.

Churchill and FDR sat around twiddling their fingers while Stalin defeated the Nazis.</i

WTF? I guess they did everything in the Pacific Theater as well?

Let's think here. There were Two fronts in the European theater. There were two theaters related to the conflict. The Brits and Americans handled Africa and the eastern front, while the Soviets, who by the way had made a pact with Germany beforehand, fought on the western front, which only makes sense, given that's where they were.

I don't know where you learned history, or whether you did, but comments like that are simply ridiculous (and even if it were true, it would be brilliant strategy to let your second-worst enemy fight your worst enemy until one is defeated. Seriously fucking brilliant, which is why there is no way in hell the old codgers would have come up with it).

John,

The Germans lost 3.5 million soldiers durin WWII.

The Soviets killed 3.1 million of them on the Eastern.

Do the math.

MT - I am disappointed that you will not be kickin' it Anderson Cooper style in the troop transport under the blackout lights en route to some unknown objective.

monkyboy: Your latest post verifies John's statement; the Allies resupplied Stalin so that the Reds/Nazis could kill each other off.....the more casualties the better.

Nemo,

Are you saying America supplies weapons to countries where they want to reduce the population?

Interesting theory...but not very diplomatic.

Welcome back to Tel-Aviv.
The only normal city this side of the world.

monkyboy: As I understand it, at least two US Generals wanted to continue hostilities, post German/Japanese surrenders, into the communist spheres, (Patton into Russia, and MacArthur into China)..........many/most, (albeit not the Western pseudo-intelligentsia), realized that, although the USSR was fighting the Germans at the same time as the Allies, they were NEVER 'on our side'.

Unfortunately the Western powers were exhausted at this point.

Yoav: You got THAT right! I spent 7+ years in Riyadh, and have been to Syria/Iraq/Iran, (among other places), and it was a pleasure to visit Israel. GO GET 'EM!!

"I can't believe the Labanese [sic] Army or any International force would be willing to fire on civilian targets to take out Hezbollah's rocket launchers..."

If those launchers were firing at said Lebanese Army or international force, what do you want to bet that they would?

If those launchers were aiming for "monkyboy's" house, what do you want to bet that he'd wish that they would?

Ralph,

I meant if Hezbollah fires rockets over whatever peacekeeping force mans the border into Israel from civilian buildings, I don't think any peacekeeping force, domestic or international, will strike at those launchers...

Nemo,

Patton was one of our best generals, but MacArthur was a complete loon. He finally got his chance to take on the Chinese in Korea by having his troops shoot across the border. The Chinese responded and MacArthur's troops fled before them in the longest retreat in U.S. military history...Truman fired him soon after.

I didn't mean to hijack this thread, but it bothers me when people think all the civilians the U.S. killed in WWII had any effect on the outcome of that war.

Russia defeated Germany...with modest assistance from the U.S. and Britain.

And while the U.S. did defeat Japan, it was already severely weakened by six years of war with China before we even got in the fight.

I guess years of Hollywood films and political rhetoric have inflated the U.S. contribution to WWII in the minds of its citizens.

Look at the losses -

Russia: 20+ million
China: 10+ million

America 250,000-400,000 (depends on who is counting)

back on topic,

I didn't realize the Palestinians had inherited some huge offshore gas fields when Israel pulled out:

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=16556

Looks like they'll be rich when it starts flowing in 2007.

Who knew?

Per Russia's fight with Nazi Germany - - true the two armies bloodied each other well beyond proportion to the Western front, but the Eastern battles were financed heavily by the West. Ditto on the Chinese/Japanese fight, which also included a lot of confrontation between Japan & Russia to keep it contained. The astronomical body counts also demonstrates something of how these various armies fought: Russia, Germany (especially as Hitler got more involved after 1942) and Japan threw men away willy nilly. Germany losing North Africa to Montgomery had a huge impact on what happened in the East. Hitler, Stalin and Tojo killed a lot of their own men through sheer incompetence, in their thinking it was okay to lay waste to whole divisions of men "for the cause".

This kind of leadership is hardly new in history. How Tehran is using its pet Hezbollah army in Lebanon is similar (and is also how Tehran fought Iraq in the war of the 1980s - - blood is cheaper than equipment).

And the new Washington Post article (they support Israel in this war, BTW) has lots of quotes from Israeli soldiers, ending with, "Unfortunately, this is a lost war."

Enemy is impossible to find, you're always under pressure, he's using advanced technology....and the fighting is STILL in the string of villages along the border.

So far, Hezbollah has essentially held Israel right at the border--an astounding feat.

Oh, but I forgot. The Arabs are culturally incapable of fighting a modern war.

And here's a quote from another pro-Israeli website, The Belmont Club, quoting another pro-Israeli interviewee about Hezbollah:

"I think it's something new, in that a non-state organization has undertaken a major, sustained, broad-scale, and so far, the successful military offensive against a state," said William Lind, director of the Center for Cultural Conservatism at the Free Congress Foundation, a Washington, D.C., think tank. "What changes here ... is that non-state forces are able to challenge states militarily -- and win."

"Successful". "Win". Not Israel. Hezbollah.

Don't say I didn't warn you.

Jeff: "the new Washington Post article (they support Israel in this war, BTW) has lots of quotes from Israeli soldiers, ending with, "Unfortunately, this is a lost war."

The WaPo may be "pro-Israel" in some alternative universe, but in this dimension they print repeated articles whose main thesis is that Israel is a 'mistake' (their term) and the root of all troubles in the Middle East.

Wurmser in National Review is saying the Israeli military was disastrously unprepared for this war and using the word "hubris"--pretty much the same as my choice, "chutzpah".

He's describing the Israeli generals shaking their heads when they hear Olmert declaring "victory" and saying, "Is he looking at the same war we are looking at?"

Counterterrorism Blog--another pro-Israeli outfit--is saying, "practically nothing achieved."

Those of you who thought this was a walkover for the Israelis were wrong, wrong, wrong.

Don't start something you are incapable of finishing. It's the worst of all worlds.

“Don't start something you are incapable of finishing. It's the worst of all worlds.”

Excuse me, but when did Israel start this war? Is this some sort of Freudian slip of the tongue? Are you hinting that Israel deserves its troubles? Moreover, Israel is fighting this conflict with one hand tied behind its back. It must cease its exaggerated emphasis on avoid the deaths of innocents. At the end of the day, Israel will win this conflict.

Anyone throwing a victory party for Nasrallah whilst he still hides in a bunker in Damascus is maybe putting the cart before the donkey, so to speak.

“David,

Churchill and FDR sat around twiddling their fingers while Stalin defeated the Nazis.”

You are dodging my central point. Churchill and FDR knew that civilization is doomed if we are overly concerned with protecting the lives of innocents during wartime. Israel must cease this idiocy of not bombing legitimate targets to avoid the indirect killing of civilians.

It's time for the blogosphere to institute a moratorium on World War II. Comparisons to WWII add nothing substantive to the discussion of the War on Terror and should be confined to WWII historical forums. I know there is a lot of WWII envy among folks who wish the US had a real enemy to fight instead of a disorganized bunch of semi-literate religious fanatics with no industry or economy to speak of, but there we are. We should worry about our real battles rather than trying to refight the Battle of the Bulge. To paraphrase Rick Pitino: "Winston Churchill is not walking through that door, fans. George Patton is not walking through that door, and Ernie Pyle is not walking through that door. And if you expect them to walk through that door, they're going to be gray and old. What America is, is young, exciting, hard-working, and we're going to improve. People don't realize that, and as soon as they realize the Greatest Generation is not coming through that door, the better this country will be for all of us because there are young guys in that room playing their asses off."

“It's time for the blogosphere to institute a moratorium on World War II.”

Nope, it’s not the time to do any such thing. During WWII we were not existentially conflicted regarding the identity of our enemies. The intellectual virus of political correctness was not a factor. We perceived the war as essentially a black/white matter and not morally ambivalent. The fact that our foes might be nonwhite did not make us feel guilty. We were not rendered virtually impotent by being overly concerned regarding civilian causalities.

Israel was justified in responding to the provocation that started this war. But the incompetent, hamfisted, no-holds-barred way they reacted turned a border incursion into a full-blown war and a major crisis. A disaster for Lebanon and an even worse disaster for Israel, which has deservedly lost its rep in the Middle East.

So...yes, Israel stupidly started this war AS a war and it is not prepared to handle it. It has no strategy for beating Hezbullah and it CANNOT beat Hezbullah--without totally destroying Lebanon. It won't be allowed to do that and ANYWAY, it isn't INCLINED to do that.

It can't stop the rocket fire. It can't get its soldiers back. It can't destroy Hezbollah; it can barely hold its own right smack over the border, where its offensive has ground to a halt.

This poorly executed war was ill-thought-through and Israel is paying dearly for it. When it ends, there won't be any crowing about victory among the Israelis and their friends. In the unlikely event that there is an "international force" on the border, it won't be able to stop rockets or even the occasional border incursion. Israel will be worse off than before it picked this fight.

Now, no matter what you think of Israel, picking a fight that will leave you worse off is foolish. And starting a war that will destroy your image as competent warriors in the eyes of your enemies and leave your own citizens blackly muttering "defeat" in their bomb-shelters is absurdly foolish.

AS I SAID: Israel was justified in responding. Just as we were justified in responding when our soldiers in Iraq were kidnapped, tortured and killed recently. How did we respond? By going berserk and ape-sh*t and bombing everything in sight? Nope. Did we declare we were going to "destroy" the Sunni rebels on the one hand, while admitting that we could do no such thing and confessing to modest aims on the other? Nope.

We acted like grownups.

But no doubt the Sergeant-Schultz-types will keep on seeing nothing and knowing nothing and assuring us (without explaining what on earth they mean) that Israel will eventually "take care of all this."

Here ar the National Review editors, friends of Israel all:

"And here’s the rub: Israel does not appear to have been able to weaken Hezbollah sufficiently to compel it to go along with any settlement acceptable to the Jewish state. Perhaps when the fog of war lifts, Israel will be revealed to have damaged Hezbollah in a way that isn’t evident right now. If Israel were waging a war against bridges, highways, and south Beirut apartment buildings, it would be winning a smashing victory."

Pretty revealing coming from National Review, isn't it?

But you heard it all here from Jeff right from the beginning. Hezbollah is the best force Israel has ever fought. They can't be simply "smashed." And bombing things from up high will achieve precisely nothing.

"Nope, it’s not the time to do any such thing. During WWII we were not existentially conflicted regarding the identity of our enemies. The intellectual virus of political correctness was not a factor. We perceived the war as essentially a black/white matter and not morally ambivalent. The fact that our foes might be nonwhite did not make us feel guilty. We were not rendered virtually impotent by being overly concerned regarding civilian causalities.

So you're agreeing that WWII was a completely different beast. So why bring it up? Do you think Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld suffer from excess political correctness? That's the problem? These wars are simply not comparable in any way. The problem we face is not that there are a few bleeding hearts in the press or that we are "morally ambivalent". To say that "we" see the war as morally ambivalent is a slur on our troops and on most Americans if you think about it. You really believe some left-wing bloggers and editorial writers have the power to destroy the morale of our armed forces? A lot of faith you seem to have in our soldiers, brother.

None of the issues you raise is a problem today, so wishful thinking about how patriotic we were in WWII won't help, and is an insult to the American kids fighting today, who are less cynical, more patriotic and more gung-ho than their grandfathers were (yes, it's true). Our problem today is that we are fighting a guerilla war, not a conventional war. In WWII our enemies did us the favor of wearing standard uniforms, formally declaring war on us and operating as organized hierarchies. None of that is true today. In a real sense we aren't fighting a war at all, we're fighting against a global insurgency of muslims that are mentally and spiritually stuck in the 16th century. In WWII the end-game was clear - smash the Nazi hierarchy and smash the Japanese hierarchy. Today the end-game is fuzzy - "spread democracy and freedom." Can you tell me how to accomplish that? Killing Hitler and Tojo were pretty simple concrete goals. How do you build democracy in the Middle East? Do we win hearts and minds? Do we kill everyone who disagrees with us? Do we need to colonize large stretches of the Middle East? Should we just isolate the contagion and forget about democracy? Do we switch tactics every few months? I believe Americans still have the balls and determination to do what's ncessary, what we are missing today is leadership. Platitudes and generalities are getting us nowhere.

Between Hiroshima and Nagasaki the Americans killed over 180,000 Civilians , and you say that had little or no outcome on the end of the war ?

Wow !!!!

Either way , those Bunker Busters Bush sent over should be in Tel-Aviv by now. It will be interesting to see which part of South Lebanon gets to be the 1st reciepient.

“Do you think Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld suffer from excess political correctness?”

I most certainly believe that George W. Bush suffers “from excess political correctness. He is to be blamed for confusing the American people with his “war on terrorism” rhetoric. Was he talking about a bunch of Scandinavian Lutherans, Alaskan Eskimos, or Martians in other space? Bush’s hesitation to open declare war on Islamic nihilism has caused enormous damage. He was far too concerned with not hurting the feelings of moderate Muslims.

...declare war on Islamic nihilism?

What are we to fight it with?

Can we bring our troops home and battle Islamic nihilism with good ol' American optimism?

David Thomson wants to fight the War on Terror the way Olmert is fighting the War on Hezbollah. Smash things around and make as many enemies as possible. With no real plan for what you want to achieve or how you are going to achieve it.

Hey, it cures frustration anyway...for a little while.

If Hezbollah is kicking the IDF's ass, why do they keep suggesting, no begging, for a cease-fire????Then you have the Arab League, demanding that the cease-fire agreement be redrawn up...which, of course, delays it's implimentation, allowing the IDF more time to destroy Hezbollahstan & indirectly, bloody Iran's nose.....And today the IDF puts a new general in charge, one who's more aggressive & advocates pouring more resources into Lebanon while pushing farther north.....Seem's the Isrealis feel things are going well enough to push their advantage......Hezbollah is a guerrilla army trying to hold territory..They pricked the Isreali giant one time too many..The Giant woke up, rolled over & is now crushing them..And they're screaming to the world to save them......poor babies...

Let's hope the IDF can do what the U.S. and British militaries couldn't do in Iraq, Work.

Good luck to them.

Our problem today is that we are fighting a guerilla war, not a conventional war. In WWII our enemies did us the favor of wearing standard uniforms, formally declaring war on us and operating as organized hierarchies. None of that is true today.

Hm.

'Non-state actors' are unable to stand against a government without backing by another government- insurgents require a safe haven, usually on the other side of a border, and logistical support (usually also from across a border).

Conventional methods of warfare may not be particularly effective on insurgents, but they can be damn effective on the government where the safe haven is located and where the logistical support is coming from.

The US isn't good at counterinsurgency, but it is very good at conventional warfare. Why are we fighting on the opponent's terms, instead of on our terms?

In a real sense we aren't fighting a war at all, we're fighting against a global insurgency of muslims that are mentally and spiritually stuck in the 16th century.

...and operates out of Syria, and is commanded out of Iran.

Every gardener knows that pruning weeds is a waste of time. What you need to do is pull them up by the roots.

Rosignol sees an enemy that operates out of Syria, and is commanded out of Iran.

If only it were that simple. The Shia are Israel's enemy. They are an enemy of the US only to the extent we are allied with Israel, which granted is an important strategic alliance for the US. But are real long-term enemy is not the Iran, it is the Sunni wahabist fundamentalists who are supported by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. None of the 9/11 terrorists were Shia as far as we know. Nor were the Spanish train bombers or the UK subway bombers. Nor are most of the terrorists in Iraq who are trying to kill our troops. The muslim terrorists who present the greatest immediate threat to the well-being of American citizens are probably located mostly in Western Europe, are not financed directly by any nation state and cannot be rooted out by bombing Damascus or Teheran, or even Riyadh. From the American perspective Hezbollah is a side-show and a distraction.

Posted too quickly. 3rd sentence should read:
But our real long-term enemy is not Iran, it is the Sunni wahabist fundamentalists who are supported by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

If only it were that simple. The Shia are Israel's enemy. They are an enemy of the US only to the extent we are allied with Israel, which granted is an important strategic alliance for the US. But are real long-term enemy is not the Iran, it is the Sunni wahabist fundamentalists who are supported by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

I don't think that is a useful distinction. Yes, the Wahabbis have caused more fatalities more recently, but the Shia radicals in Tehran have been causing problems for the US for decades, starting with siezing the US Embassy in '79, and proceeding up to the "we're enriching uranium and no one can stop us nyah nyah nyah" problem today.

They're both serious problems, IMO, and classifying one or the other as the 'main' enemy is shortsighted. Both are capable of inflicting serious damage on the US, and I think the only real distinction between the two is that we're dealing with one group now, and will be dealing with the other group in the next year or so.

None of the 9/11 terrorists were Shia as far as we know. Nor were the Spanish train bombers or the UK subway bombers. Nor are most of the terrorists in Iraq who are trying to kill our troops.

Short-term threats vs. medium-term threats. Just because the long-term threat isn't killing as many people as the short-term threat does not mean it's not a threat.

The muslim terrorists who present the greatest immediate threat to the well-being of American citizens are probably located mostly in Western Europe, are not financed directly by any nation state and cannot be rooted out by bombing Damascus or Teheran, or even Riyadh. From the American perspective Hezbollah is a side-show and a distraction.

Indeed it is. This is why the IDF is dealing with Hezbollah instead of the USMC.

Ignoring medium- and long-term threats so you can focus exclusively on short-term threats is unwise.

Why would anyone argue over whether Shias or Sunnis constitute the "real" enemy? Confessional differences may be of interest to them as they slaughter each other in Iraq (and in Pakistan, by the way) but such distinctions are useless in this coming war. Islamists come from ALL factions of Islam and their goal is the same - destruction of the West. David Thomson has the right idea - this "War on Terror" should be conducted like WWII as it is a war of ideologies. And there IS a clear goal - to stop them from harming the West. What could be clearer?? It's not the goal that is lacking, it's the will to really fight. Instead, it seems to me that the Americans want to be "liked" by everyone - even their adversaries - and the Europeans (who, in truth, detest anything and anyone east of the Danube) simply want to appease them. Both approaches are being read as weakness by the Islamists and this is just causing them to redouble their efforts. Which ultimately means more war. Rosignol is correct - you need to pull this triffid out by the roots.

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