July 28, 2006

Ceasefire

Bush and Blair call for ceasefire.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at July 28, 2006 01:08 PM
Comments

It's all falling into place...

Posted by: Bad Vilbel at July 28, 2006 01:18 PM

"This can only work if Hezbollah are prepared to allow it to work," the prime minister said.

If the situation wasn't so very tragic I'd be laughing my head off over that statement.

Posted by: Renée C. at July 28, 2006 01:21 PM

"This can only work if Hezbollah are prepared to allow it to work," the prime minister said.

If the situation wasn't so very tragic I'd be laughing my head off over that statement.

Posted by: Renée C. at July 28, 2006 01:22 PM

Sorry about the double post.

Posted by: Renée C. at July 28, 2006 01:22 PM

Bush said his "message to Syria is: You know, become an active participant in the neighborhood for peace."

You know, like, I mean , like, you know, c'mon guys!
Truly a great orator. The mind reels.

Posted by: Lindsey at July 28, 2006 01:49 PM

Hmmm...I guess it all now finally comes down to the question of whether or not Europe wants to be taken seriously on the world stage. Seeing as how this is the UN we're talking about here, Bush and Blair would be well advised to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Maybe we ought to try and bring in our non-traditional allies on this one, as well. India comes to mind. God knows they too have their reasons for closely watching how a boldly hawkish response to terror plays out.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at July 28, 2006 01:56 PM

become an active participant in the neighborhood for peace

Can we have free Twinkies for everyone, too?

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at July 28, 2006 01:59 PM

Can we have free Twinkies for everyone, too?

And a pony. I want a pony!

Posted by: Whomever at July 28, 2006 02:03 PM

I watched the news conference live and although I liked the clear statements by both about not supporting a ceasefire that does not deal with the underlying problems I did not see anything really new.

There is still the question of how to get Hizbollah to accept any deal that will result in them losing their military power. I doubt that they will do this voluntarily unless Israel has hurt them much more than I had thought. Or unless they are afraid of the rest of Lebanon turning on them.

As Blair said I don't see anyone contributing troops that would really force Hizbollah to comply. Is the Lebanese army in good enough shape that it could do the job with a reasonable amount of outside help?

Posted by: Tony Lekas at July 28, 2006 02:58 PM

Michael:
The make up and the mandate of the multi-national force is the key to everything. In other words, will they be able or willing to shoot anyone that tries to start the war up again. If it is the standard "please don't do anything rough or we will write a stinging report" peacekeeping force then it will just be a matter of time before the force becomes observers and non participants.

Posted by: kevin peters at July 28, 2006 05:35 PM

Many keep referring to the LA as a key element. But as MJT has pointed there are substantial shia within the LA. What was it, 35% at troop level, less so at the officer level? Would these shia soldiers and officers be willing to stand against Nasrallah and his followers? You just know they are going to keep pushing and pushing. These are extremists, not your everyday go to work, have fun kind of people.

Plus, with all the factions evidenced in the general public, is there any underlying discordance within the LA reflecting these same sectarian divisions? Confronting Hezb in any future arrangement would seem to be problematic if not everyone is on board. Just seems like the cart before the horse. Or wishful thinking at this point.

Posted by: allan at July 28, 2006 05:44 PM

This is a stall. The war will not be over until Syria and Iran are defeated.

http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2006/07/how-israel-could-attack-syria.html

Posted by: M. Simon at July 29, 2006 06:31 AM

*

How Israel could attack Syria.

*

Posted by: M. Simon at July 29, 2006 06:36 AM
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