That article reads like an Israeli propaganda piece.

The Israelis don't want to remove Hezbollah militarily, which could cost them 10,000 dead soldiers, in a battle they could actually lose.

So they are randomly bombing Lebanon in the hopes they'll stir up a civil war that will involve Hezbollah...and crossing their fingers.

I bet even Sharon in his coma is rolling his eyes...

Monkeyboy: That article reads like an Israeli propaganda piece.

(eyeroll)

It was written by a Lebanese national, in a Beirut newspaper, by the opinion page editor of that newspaper. And he is not at all happy about what Israel is doing in Lebanon.

randomly bombing Lebanon

Oh, stop it. I'm not happy about this either, but at least I'm on Earth and not Mars.

China isn't too happy about it either:

http://tinyurl.com/kh3t8

Wang told reporters he remains frustrated at the difficult negotiations on such an important issue, and said this would definitely affect "working relations" in the council on other issues, including Iran.

Not bad, with a single bomb, Israel just gave Iran's nuclear ambitions a green light...

And by killing a Canadian, the country that Bushie convinced to take the bag full of crap that is Afghanistan might just be handing it back to the him soon.

Bullseye

I've found it's generally a good idea to keep in mind that chinadaily.com.cn is a state-controlled media outlet from an authoritarian government, and treat it's content accordingly.

It is indeed, rosignol.

It is the voice of a government that is now going to veto any attempt to stop Iran's nuclear development.

It is also the voice of a government the United States owes a trillion dollars and counting to.

Saudi Arabia has just kicked in $1.5 billion to Hezbollah's cause.

http://tinyurl.com/hbwhx

There's a chance that China, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia have decided it's time to vote Israel off the island.

Faced with the loss of so much credit and oil...the U.S. is in no position to stop them.

Times have changed...Israel could lose this fight.

monky, that money is for humanitarian aid for Lebanon, not Hisballah. The Saudis are NOT going to aid Hisballah.

Ah, no. The voice of the government of China is a man by the name of Hu Jintao.

Anyone who has a memory going back more than a year or two should know what the US does when it looks like another Permanent Member of the Security Council is going to veto something the US wants to do.

monkyboy,

The 10,000 casualties figure, did the aliens whisper that to you? Or is it your opinion that this Hezbollah can last the 400 weeks necessary to inflict that degree of harm at their current rate?

Hezbollah is a guerrilla army defending fixed locations without a protected line of supply against a western army. This is traditionally a way of saying that they are about to lose everything. They are probably doing this to show that an Arab army can hold ground at all against a western force. The price they are paying to prove this point may well be their own destruction, but I don't think that Iran actually gives a damn.

The only way that Israel will suffer 10,000 casualties against Hezbollah is if they start using pikes as their exclusive weapon. They would still wipe Hezbollah out, it will just get more IDF soldiers killed.

I suggest you study the battle of Iwo Jima, Patrick, if you want to see what an army defending fixed locations without a protected line of supply against a western army can do.

If Hezbollah has dug in deep enough, Israel's expensive (and expensive to operate) toys will be rendered ineffective. They will have to send their soldiers into the earth unsupported to clear out Hezbollah...

I don't think Israel's accidental leader is quite up to making that call.

When a commenter like Monkeyboy comes on and claims that SA just handed Hizbollah 1.5 billion and suggests that the Israelis could lose 10,000 troups in this conflict, why do I have the suspicion that we're about to hear that the Neo-Cons had secretly engineered 9/11?

BTW, over at Iraqi Bloggers Central Mister Ghost has been interviewing Israeli bloggers the last couple days to get their reactions to recent events.

*

The IDF will only win if it reaches Baalbak.

Anything short of that is a failed attempt at shutting the Hezbollah.

Monkeyboy,

If you really want analysis of military affairs, both from the blog entries and from a long list of competent commenters, I suggest going over to Belmont Club. While military matters are discussed here on occasion, the focus seems to be more on social and political issues.

Last night I looked at a detailed street map of Bint Jmail and there is no question it will be tough fighting. But, having listened to a father and two uncles who fought in the Pacific theater in WWII, I can tell you that it is very, very unlikely that the IDF will take the same percentage of casualties in Bint Jmail. At the same time, it would really be helpful if the Hez conducted a few banzai charges so that the Israelis could expedite the matter.

*

I hate to disappoint you, Jeffery, but I don't buy into left-wing fantasies.

I hope for Israel's sake, they don't buy into right-wing fantasies.

Israel's facing a real problem.

If they listen to the clowns who brought "peace" to Iraq, Tel Aviv will soon be as "peaceful" as Baghdad.

monkyboy,

So you are now saying that Hezbollah has been inspired by the Bushido code and is on a volcanic island? The soil composition of Southern Lebanon is not as sturdy as basalt. The moral composition of Hezbollah is not so sturdy as the Imperial Japanese Army.

Digging in deep is exactly what Hezbollah needs to avoid because movement is their friend, not immobility. So far Hezbollah has shown that they can coherently act in company strength (200 troops). On Iwo Jima, the IJA was operating in corps strength (22,000 troops). Hezbollah doesn't have corps strength in their entire organization. They are also not on death ground, they have the opportunity to retreat.

Finally, they don't have Lieutenant General Tadamichi Kuribayashi or anyone like him. Read some history instead of making it up to suit your arguments. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tadamichi_Kuribayashi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Iwo_Jima

The IDF will only win if it reaches Baalbak.

That's an interesting way to raise pseudoexpectations; think it'll get any traction?

As Wretchard suggests, right now Hezbollah is engaged in the worst mistake an "insurgency" can make -- they're fighting to hold territory in the south. Nasrallah is hiding out, reputedly in the Iranian embassy. Even the Beirut cafe set is talking -- just talking, so far -- about how toleration of Hezbollah is unacceptable (although, granted, the meaning of "unacceptable" seems to have more than a little stretch) . . .

. . . and the IDF has to go to Baalbek in order to win? Huh?

For this round -- and, alas, it's just another round -- it's win for Israel if everybody else understands that Hezbollah breaking the next hudna won't be responded to with something as smallscale as this operation.

And that hudna is at least weeks away . . . quite possibly months.

I guess here's a question all of us need to consider. We've been here before, right?

Under cross-examination, will Monkeyboy flame out and climb from beneath his bridge revealing a hideous visage and gapped teeth -- a TROLL! -- or will he climb up the embankment wearing an old Hobo Jo dusty suit with a copy of Nietzsche in the pocket of his jacket and a sheepish grin on his face?

In short, is he a troll or just a smart aleck in the garb of a street philosopher?

*

Monkeyboy writes:

If they listen to the clowns who brought "peace" to Iraq, Tel Aviv will soon be as "peaceful" as Baghdad.

Mr. Monkeyboy, you have characterized the elected leaders of the United State of America as "clowns" and placed sneer-quotes around the word "peace." Do you have any evidence that would support your claim that in reality the leaders of our government are employed as circus entertainers?

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, it seems that under interrogation Mr. Monkeyboy is valiantly trying to keep his inner-troll in check, but I ask you to watch him carefully as we continue with this trial.

*

Patrick,

Leader's reputations come after the battle, not before. So far, Hezbollah's military leader seems very good.

I do believe that Hezbollah's fighters are willing to fight to the death just like the IJA did.

As for numbers, I have seen estimates of Hezbollah's troop strength as high as 30,000.

While the gound of southern Lebanon might not be made of volcanic rock...Israel doesn't have a fleet of battleships to pound it with...nor do they have 100,000 battle-hardened Marines to send into it.

We'll just have to see how this turns out, but Israel's reluctance to venture far beyond its border suggests they know they aren't facing a cakewalk...

Patrick,

Great rebuttal to Monkeyboy. I have read E.B. Sledge's memoir, With the Old Breed: at Peleliu and Okinawa, which gives an up-close-and-personal view of some of the toughest fighting ever conducted in the history of warfare. Hezbollah has been getting the facile star treatment from the MSM, but there is no comparison between them and the Japanese military as a fighting force. Defeating the Japanese was as difficult as it could get.

*

Mr. Monkeyboy,

Listen, I have a question. Do you WANT Hezbollah to win? It sounds like you do. Or is this just your impartial military judgement?

*

No Lebanese leader - not Amin Gemayel in 1982, Michel Aoun in 1989, or Emile Lahoud in 2004 - can indefinitely bend the country to the breaking point, or push it toward communal destabilization, without the old sectarian ways kicking in to impose a correction.

I admire Mr. Young's analyses, but I also recall (someone correct me if I'm wrong) that Gemayel was assassinated, Aoun was defeated by Syrian troops, and Lahoud ultimately routed by mass demonstrations. These are examples of "the old sectarian ways"?

Or look at it this way:

The day that Hezbollah takes out a patent on a new kind of microprocessor is the day that I'll start to worry about them.

Hm. That could be an incendiary statement.

*

Okay, one more time:

The day that Hezbollah takes out a patent on a new kind of microprocessor is the day that I'll STOP worrying about them.

*

Boy did this thread rapidly devolve...
No one wanting to talk about the actual article?

I happened to read the Michael Young piece yesterday, and think his analysis, although pessimistic is fairly accurate.

I think the fear of a sectarian conflict within Lebanon, the old civil war, are becoming more real every day. It might provide for a very needed "correction", as Mr. Young describes it. However, I do fear that any protracted civil war in Lebanon will not be to the advantage of Israel, thus not a solution to this current problem.

Jeffrey NY,

I just hope you won't doing the floppy logic programming for that chip.

The day that Hezbollah takes out a patent on a new kind of microprocessor is the day that I'll STOP worrying about them.

What else would they be doing with the $1.5 bn monkyboy claims the Saudis have given to them!

Jdwill,

I just hope you won't doing the floppy logic programming for that chip.

Heh heh. One can only imagine the strange phrase substitutions that would be built into the Hez-Chip.

*

Micheal:
Isn't civil war exactly what Hezbollah wants? They don't seem to have any interest in a strong, independent sectarian Lebanon, tied to neither Israel nor Syria, where they will never have more then a portion of political power or where they will have to share power with non Muslim factions. The fact that they protested for continued Syrian dominance over Lebanon seems to indicate that a political solution where they have to share power and submit themselves to open elections from the entire Lebanese population is not what they want.A civil war is the only way for a Hezbollah dominated Lebanon to come into being.

I agree with Young that extending this war will lead to a civil war with the various factions of Lebanon but I think thats exactly what Hezbollah wants. And since they will have Syrian and Iranian support in this bloody war it seems as though their chances of winning it eventually is pretty good.

I suggest you study the battle of Iwo Jima, Patrick, if you want to see what an army defending fixed locations without a protected line of supply against a western army can do.

1) The Imperial Japanese Army was not a geurilla force.

2) Of the ~22,000 soldiers that the Japanese had on Iwo Jima, a mere 1,083 survived. That's 95% KIA.

3) the US's KIA were 6,821... about 1/3 of what the Japanese lost.

Exactly what was the point you were trying to make? Because the point you seem to be making is that Hizbullah is headed a crushing defeat, with ~95% of their force KIA.

ps: for future reference, it is generally a bad idea to draw parallels between whatever force you are saying will win and Imperial Japan in WW2.

Mr Totten
I would deeply appreciate an honest, facual report on the bombing damage done by the IAF to the city of Beirut. According to CNN and the MSM Beirut is a smoking ruin, no stone lies upon another, and babies are slowly barbequeing in the burning ruins.

According the the Jerusalem Post the bombing has been limited the to six areas, each smaller than the Beirut Race Track.

Somebody has smoked too much Hashish and is having visions. Tell us the truth, please.

Thank You. We trust you. If you feel honesty will risk your life, remain silent.

A civil war is the only way for a Hezbollah dominated Lebanon to come into being.

Exactly.
This was the 1975-1990 civil war.
The Lebanon between 1990 and 2005 was exactly that: A Hezbollah dominated Lebanon (kinda).

Let's not REVISIT that one all over again. Maybe try something new this time?

To all:

monkyboy is a notorious blog troll. She posts things to get a response and be annoying.

It's best to just ignore her until it gets herself banned. Which, after watching monky on other blogs, is usually not that long a period of time.

BTW: Keep up the good work Michael.

Bad Vibel:
I agree. But How? Hezbollah seems to win no matter what. Cease fire? Won't Hezbollah simply regroup, rearm via Syria and Iraq, and continue the low grade war, occassional rocket launches into Israel, political asssasinations against the non Hezbollah factions, suicide bombings against whatever multi national forces enter Lebanon to get them to either leave or reduce to them to "observers" rather then peace enforcers? Escalation by Israel? I don't think Israel can eliminate Hezbollah on their own and I don't think the world community has the stomach to do it either.

I think Hezbollah has the whip hand in this race and they seem to have the mindset perfectly suited to a war of attrition where the party that is willing to endure death and suffering for long periods will simply endure the misery long enough until Lebanon is so destroyed that dictatorship with "stability" will seem a better alternative. And this is a vile alternative and I am not a Patrick Buchanon or Zbig fan hoping that Syria takes control so the west can ignore the Democratic wishes of the Lebanese people. Look at the Sudan. Continued dithering by the international community while the aggressive party slowly continues the war under the umbrella of U.N. "peace" negotiations. A bloody war of attrition.

I would love to be shown that my thoughts are retarded and have no basis in reality. I don't pretend to have a clue as to what the right answer is. But I can't see Hezbollah taking any other path and I don't see a good ending to this tradegy.

Bad, I'm certainly willing to get back to the article -- although, unlike you, I think that Michael Young is being optimistic, not pessimistic. (And I think that Michael Totten was a combination of smart, wise, ethical, and self-protecting by mentioning his professional connection to Michael Young in his blog entry in the way that he did.)

Like, for example, this: "Nasrallah has declared a war beyond Haifa, while the Israelis are now engaged in a ground war beyond Bint Jbeil."

Interesting -- and revealing -- parallelism, to suggest that raining missiles down indiscriminately on major cities is somehow the same sort of thing as land forces going within shouting distance north of Bint Jbeil, isn't it?

My own take, which I'm sure won't surprise you, is that in order for the Lebanese to focus, the IDF is going to have to move far north of that. Until at least then, I don't think that there will be the necessary paradigm shift. (Right now, what I'm reading is something like, "we can't do very much -- although we'll certainly try harder, in some unspecified sorts of ways; give us time -- without the very worst thing in the world happening: a rekindling of the Lebanese civil war. Nothing could be worse than that." I think the necessity for a shift from that paradigm hasn't been adopted by the Lebanese, and I don't think there's a sign that it will anytime soon.)

Will the message be received and understood without, at a minimum, say, Beirut having to get massive counterbattery fire from IDF artillery? I'm increasingly skeptical. But it'll be interesting to see what, say, Jumblat says and does in a week or two.

1) I do not support any group of fanatics that launch indiscriminate attacks on other nations.

2) I am not an anti-semite and I believe that Isreal has a right to exist (in the same manner any other nation has, no more, no less).

Ok, now that the BS CYA is out of the way, my insignificant thoughts.

It appears to me, that some on this board and in our great nation have not learned from our recent history. Ceritanly there was a possibility that we would be greeted as liberators in Iraq and that the Oil would pay for the War and that democracy would make everything better. There were also about a thousand other possibilities, most of which ended up with a protracted war against an insurgency. Yet, the loudest supporters spoke only of the most positive result possible. This seems unrealistic to me, usually when dealing with risk, we assume (and plan for) the worst possible situation, and then get happily surprised when things go well.

There is absolutely the possibility that Israel will successfully prosecute Hezbollah and meet their goals. There are also many other possibilities, most of which have very bad endings. Israel seems to be banking on a best ending solution, completely ignoring all of the potential bad endings. Civil war in Lebanon will probably end badly. Hezbollah seems far better armed and trained than most of the rest of the population. What will Israel do if they end up with Hezbollah at the helm in Beiruit, tied happily with Iran and Syria? what will Israel do if Iran and Syria decide that its time to play hardball? What happens if AQ actually listens to their madment leaders and floods Israel in the same manner that they flooded Iraq?

I guess on the up side, maybe the jihadists will leave Iraq for Israel and things won't appear so bad there.

All in all, these seem uncertain times to me, and I find it troubling that so many only voice the best possible conclusion as a certianty.

Kevin Peters,

I don't have an answer. Your comments are not retarded and somewhat mirror mine. I agree that Hezbollah has the whip hand right now. And I agree that a cease fire alone, will simply allow Hezbollah to regroup and to get back to business as usual (kidnapping soldiers, or whatever) in no time.

Joel R,

I don't know why you keep implying that i disagree with you. I don't. Not fundementally.
I also thought that for Israel to accomplish something, they'd have to at LEAST invade a buffer zone all the way to the Litani. AT LEAST!
My contention is that the current mode of operation of the IDF is playing into the hands of Hezbollah and a return to the status quo. Which is certainly NOT what I want to see.
I want to see a permanent solution to the Hezbollah problem. I want to see a sovereign Lebanon turning its attention on building a true democracy and rebuilding the country.

The problem is, I don't think the current events are leading to that. (And i think you agree)

I think the current events COULD have lead to a better outcome, earlier on. But I think at this stage, the opportunity has been squandered.

Solomon2: Gemayel was assassinated, Aoun was defeated by Syrian troops

Aoun was defeated by Syria with the backing of most Lebanese. And a different Gemayel (Bashir) was assassinated.

And now something a bit more optimistic:

Hezbollah apparently is now on board with Siniora's 7 point plan.

http://www.beirutbeltway.com/beirutbeltway/2006/07/hizbullah_backs.html

Before some of you jump into the usual rethoric. Read the blog entry and do away with what is undoubtedly a lot of posturing still, coming from the Hezbollah side. I'm not sure what to make of this, but i'm starting to think that my initial prediction 2 weeks ago is reading it's head again. I had predicted that we'd end up with a ceasefire, a bufferzone, a mutlinational force and a longer process to disarming Hezbollah internally.

Reading past the public appearances of Rome's failure, and Condi's visit to Beirut being so "unproductive". I think the same plan has been afoot all along. Rice's visit to Beirut provided the means for her to lay out the plan to the Lebanese government "This is what we have in mind". And indirectly to Hezbollah (by her talking to Berri). Posturing aside, I think the following steps will be pretty much dictate by the US administration on both Lebanon and Israel.
- Israel will finally be asked to cease fire and to agree to an exchange of prisoners.
- Hezbollah will posture all over the place but reluctantly agree to stop firing their missiles and to back off past the Litani.
- A multinational force alongside the Lebanese Army will deploy south of the Litani.
- Shebaa farms will be made a UN only zone (no Lebanese Army, no Israeli Army).

and then the REAL hard work will start: How does Hezbollah get permanently disarmed. And how do Iran and Syria react to this above mentioned plan. (Sabotaging it somehow)

I apologize for the countless gramatical and spelling errors in my previous comment. It was posted in a hurry.

Bad Vilbel -- typeaux happen; not a big deal.

Where we disagree is or isn't a big deal, depending on how you frame the argument. You and I don't run countries, after all. But what you're suggesting -- and where I think you're utterly wrong -- is where you suggest that Israel not hitting Hezbollah and some other Lebanese targets as hard as they have would have been more productive, that -- to be just a little unfair -- a kinder, gentler military campaign would have been effective.

Respectfully, I couldn't disagree more strongly.

As to the suggestion that today's chin music from Siniora and/or Hezbollah is going to lead to anything useful, I think that's woefully mistaken. I think that he is, indeed, "proceeding down the path that he sees will spare Lebanon an internal conflict," and that's exactly the problem -- he's making yet another Concordat with Hezbollah.

Bad idea. I understand why he's doing it. His priority is getting the IDF planes out of the skies overhead, at least for now. It isn't handling Hezbollah. It hasn't been. It won't be.

I believe Abu Kais when he writers "... Siniora is our only hope." He'd be better off counting on Obiwan Jenobi -- granted, he's fictional and therefore not a good person to pin one's hopes on, but Siniora is leading Lebanon right back to the path of accomodating Hezbollah.

Lira said: The IDF will only win if it reaches Baalbak. Anything short of that is a failed attempt at shutting the Hezbollah.

Joel said: That's an interesting way to raise pseudoexpectations; think it'll get any traction?

As Wretchard suggests, right now Hezbollah is engaged in the worst mistake an "insurgency" can make -- they're fighting to hold territory in the south. Nasrallah is hiding out, reputedly in the Iranian embassy. Even the Beirut cafe set is talking -- just talking, so far -- about how toleration of Hezbollah is unacceptable (although, granted, the meaning of "unacceptable" seems to have more than a little stretch) . . .

. . . and the IDF has to go to Baalbek in order to win? Huh?

For this round -- and, alas, it's just another round -- it's win for Israel if everybody else understands that Hezbollah breaking the next hudna won't be responded to with something as smallscale as this operation.

And that hudna is at least weeks away . . . quite possibly months.

------------------------------------------------

Joel, you only quoted 1/2 of my comment, what about the rest? IDF's first and outmost goal is to shut the Hezbollah, shutting in the sense of preventing Hezbollah from firing rockets at Israel, preventing Hezbollah from kidnapping Israeli soldiers, preventing Hezbollah from attacking Israeli border posts.

How does the IDF plan to do that if it does not invade the main base of Hezbollah, that is Baalbak?

Suppose I wanted to go with your interpretation of a first round being now, do you really think that the IDF has won the first round?

A bit of objectivity please.

Suppose I wanted to go with your interpretation of a first round being now, do you really think that the IDF has won the first round?--Lira

Galls me as it does to agree, but I am forced to say that Lira makes a very valuable point here. And her comment on 'objectivity' is on-target as well. You can't hope to succeed if you are not willing to look reality right in the face, no matter how unpleasant that experience turns out to be.

I have very serious reservations on the 'strategy' being pursued by the IDF and its political masters. And my reservations are not at all based in in the nebulous realm of 'morality'. I frankly don't believe in a 'moral' WAR. Rather my doubts are founded on the 'effectivity' of the campaign. I think that Israel has used WAY TOO MUCH air-power(poorly at that), and has been adverse to doing what is really required to badly hurt Hezbollah's armed wing.

I just don't think it has been very effective and I think that someone(s) at the higher levels of the IDF needs to find alternative employment in the very near future.

And looking around the net today, I find that I am not alone. Wretchard makes a good attempt to find some deep method in the madness, but I remain very much unconvinced. When the emperor really does have no clothes, lit usually is a good idea to at least notice the fact.

Dougf,

I agree wholeheartedly.

Joel,

I never said anything like Israel not hitting Hezbollah and some other Lebanese targets as hard as they have would have been more productive, that -- to be just a little unfair -- a kinder, gentler military campaign would have been effective.

Not in any of my comments or posts. Not a one.
Sorry. You are probably misreading some of my statements.

SirGlubb,

Thanks for the head's up. I found it worthwhile to recheck my facts on Iwo Jima and expand my knowledge. As an exercise of refutation, monkyboy is not really worth the effort, but studying a battle as profound as Iwo Jima is always rewarding.

Additionally, the notion that Tadamichi Kuribayashi was an unproven commander when he met Emporer Hirohito before taking command at Iwo Jima is flatly ludicrous and deserves denouncing. Japan had been at war for ten years in China before they attacked Pearl Harbor and every officer of significance in the IJA had been tested. While there are instances of instinctive soldiers rising to greatness in their first combat command, the overwhelming fate of green troops is a short and messy end. Nobody has every taken the reigns of a corps command from scratch and succeeded, and that's not what happened at Iwo Jima.

Hezbollah is trying to use a guerilla army to hold ground and the force structure does not support that activity. Simply feeding troops in emplaced positions is a pain in the ass even with pre-positioned stores. Israel's deliberate pace may be in fact a deliberate pace intended to get Hezbollah to eat their stores while holding in place and face destruction or starvation. On Iwo Jima in their cross-linked tunnels and interior defense lines, the IJA had two and a half months of supplies on D-Day. Care to bet that Hezbollah planned to hold for more than two and a half weeks?

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