June 04, 2006
Why Hezbollah Circles the Drain
Lebanese reader Omega80 left a comment here that deserves to be promoted to the front page since the problem of Hezbollah has come up again. He does an excellent job explaining how they are viewed by most Lebanese today and why. He says he's going to tell you how it is. And I agree with him. This is pretty much how it is.
For all those that want to know, i'm going to tell you how it is:Posted by Michael J. Totten at June 4, 2006 04:57 AMMost Lebanese, I included, supported Hezbollah to a certain extent up until Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000. For a while after that we also felt that maybe Hezbollah should stay armed, just in case. However, it has been 6 years since Israel withdrew from Lebanon, at it is quite aparent that they will leave us alone as long as we leave them alone.
On top of that, with the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon more than a year ago, new forces came into play. Namely, the fact that Hezbollah is a sectarian group that is armed, the only group in Lebanon that is armed. Thus, it is not about Israel anymore, but rather, about internal Lebanese dynamics, namely, that one community armed while others aren't tips the delicate balance in Lebanon's confessional system.
Since having all groups armed is not the way to create a country, and we all have seen the effects of this, the only solution is for Hezbollah to disarm. Israel will leave us alone as long as we leave them alone, so that aspect is covered. Now mind you, that's not to say that Israel is not a threat, however, any disarmament of Hezbollah would go hand in hand with security guarantees from the U.N. and the U.S. that Israel will not bother Lebanon anymore.
The fact of the matter is that Hezbollah is going to disarm sometime down the road, sooner rather than later. The only other alternative in the long term is civil conflict in Lebanon again. Everyone is being patient now because they KNOW that Hezbollah will disarm. However, if it does become fact that Hezbollah is not going to disarm, over the long term other Lebanese groups and communities will eventually do the same to rectify the balance. Also, we all know that Syria would want nothing other than to see a civil war in Lebanon again, as a prelude to them reasserting themselves in the country.
However, even Shias in Lebanon would not be willing to have another Civil War in Lebanon just so they could stay armed, because that means more death, destruction, and poverty for them as well. To put it in basic terms, everyone in Lebanon wants Hezbollah disarmed except Syrian stooges and Hezbollah themselves. That includes right wing Maronites, left wing Maronites, socialist Druze, urban Sunni, and many Shia as well.
Omega makes some good points, but I think he's a bit too quick in dismissing civil war, just because people do not want it.
"Stuff" happens and things get out of control fast and easy. Nobody ever wants a war or a civil war.
What I see and hear from HA and their mostly supine opponents: nothing was learnt from the VERY RECENT past. Is it a stretch to argue: same causes, same effects??? Especially when outsiders have tremendous influence and are shielded from the horrors of war (Syria).
I tend to agree with Omega, but my confidence in a good outcome is lower.
Posted by: JoseyWales at June 4, 2006 06:35 AMI tend to agree with Omega and Josey, although my outlook for the future is a bit brighter.
Hizbullah will disarm. They have no choice. And Nasrallah knows this. The question is what will he get in return.
Posted by: The Perpetual Refugee at June 4, 2006 07:20 AMIsrael came into Lebanon because it was being attacked. And, Arafat was controlling Beirut. Oy, how quickly people forget.
For Israelis being in Lebanon was an extension too far. Though they did toss Arafat to Tunis.
By the way, PRIOR to Israel entering Lebanon, there was a free election, and a very pro-western GAMALYEL was elected prime minister. When Arafat came along and blew him to smithereens. At least some understanding of causes and effects should be out there.
There's not a Chinaman's chance in hell that Israel will every again broach its own borders with troop movements into Lebanon. It's a pretty good lesson to see that Arik Sharon recognized the wisdom of giving the Europeans just what they were asking for; "remove da Jooos from arabs." Okey dokey. DONE. Disengagement has brought more harms to the palestinians than not. But to Israel it's just as well. Today's modern militaries are gonna fight a whole new way. Like surgeons with magic bullets. No need to destroy healthy tissue. Or civililans. Not that the civilians do well when they live in bad neighborhoods. But each and every government must learn to POLICE their own.
Also, the lesson to the Lebanese goes like this: Hezbollah UPPED THE ANTE. And, had a sniper shoot an Israeli soldier in the back. WHen the response was then for the IDF to go after training camps of the Hezbollah, on the Lebanese side of the border. It must have panicked Nasrallah. Because he sought out others in Beirut to call the fire power off. (And, here Michael Totten thought he'd just tell the Israelis they should have been shooting at Damascus, instead.)
What Halutz said, in an interview in the Jerusalem Post is this: Hezbollah will not control the heat under these escalations. And, they escalate at their own peril. Including Israel's reach, by air and sea, where Hezbollah's ammunition piles, even if they are in Beirut, are targets.
It's not as if there aren't threats, now, to the Hezbollah. Who, I'm sure aren't gonna want to be waking Washington, DC up again any time soon. Because the Israelis only RESPOND. And, they're not taking dictation these days from arabs; individuals. Or states.
Meanwhile, for those who read the Jerusalem Post, there's an odd article by David Horovitz, the paper's editor. It's about a poll done in Europe. WHere support for the palestinians has tanked. Believe me, Israelis don't control what the french think. But there's been a sea change in attitude. And, Israel isn't seen as being the aggressors, here.
That the Lebanese want to think the Israelis are coming? Why? I remember a funny movie, where a small country, thinking it would go to war with America, to benefit from losing, attacked. But then they won. Sure. that was a comedy.
But we live in a world, now, where all our children are precious. And, even though military service in Israel is required; while it is strictly voluntary in the USA, nobody, it seems holds high hopes up for democracy, anymore. Perhaps, Iraq was the last best shot? The Kurds are doing okay, though. And, if that's how it goes, then benefits remain in small pockets. While streets that are controlled by militias are awful.
What will Russia do, now that the terrorists shot and killed a Russian diplomat? Dunno. But just as a reminder, back in the 1980's something similar happened in Beirut. And, Spaznez came in. I'm told every palestinian from the families of the purpetrators met horrible deaths. And, body parts showed up in the mail to set up some examples.
So there's an American way. And, a russian way. And, the coward's way. IF Lebanon keeps supporting the Hezbollah then they'll get 30,000 or so Shi'ite demonstrators feeling at ease tying up traffic. Not that I care.
Posted by: Carol Herman at June 4, 2006 08:31 AMCarol writes: That the Lebanese want to think the Israelis are coming?
She obviously doesn't live in the country. Otherwise she'd see the Israelis every couple of weeks or so in the form of F-18s doing mock raids over Lebanese sovereign airspace and breaking the sound barrier to this day.
Spare me the history lesson Carol.
(And this coming from someone who doesn't think so badly of that other side)
Posted by: The Perpetual Refugee at June 4, 2006 08:52 AMYes, the IDF is strong. And, the Israelis aren't bullshit artists. They're a very direct people. While arabs, as a general rule, get foxy with facts.
If the Lebanese want to re-arm with an excuse that the Israeli's are coming, you can't make me mad. As long as Nasrallah wants border activity, however, all is not going to be calm. Because Israel won't tolerate the fire that comes across the border.
Posted by: Carol Herman at June 4, 2006 09:50 AMtest
Posted by: carine at June 4, 2006 10:06 AMnooo way!!!!!! THE CURSE IS BROKEN. i can comment again!!!!! thanks to michael for suggesting i try one more time... i'd pretty much given up hope.
and i didn't even have to harass my ISP!!
sorry this isn't a real comment... but i was just totally unprepared for this to work :)
Posted by: carine at June 4, 2006 10:11 AMWelcome back, Carine. :)
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at June 4, 2006 10:13 AMgosh... control your enthusiasm, jerome ;) hehe
i LOVE this commenting business. i'm totally going to ruin your blog with useless posts if the novelty doesn't wear off soon, though.
Posted by: carine at June 4, 2006 10:24 AMThere's an interesting post up at an Israeli blog that says in the "skirmish" with Hizbiz (their term), Hizbollah had sent kids right up to the front with rocks to throw. No. The kids weren't hit by gunfire. But there were lots of dead terrorists. The anti-tank missiles fired by Hizbollah missed. Later on the tanks would flatten all the structures.
I was just wonderfing IF kids were used to run into the battlefield, and they're unharmed, do they have nightmares later, anyway? Do the parents care?
Seems, too, that the terrorists ran into UN buildings. And, the IDF avoided hitting the UN personnel. But I gather the terrorists didn't fair as well.
How come reports on the fighting that took place are so scarce? All the cartoonists are on vacation?
Posted by: Carol Herman at June 4, 2006 10:47 AMI'm a little confused. If Hezbollah is disarmed, why would Israel bother Lebanon?
Posted by: Megan at June 4, 2006 11:30 AMIf Hezbollah is disarmed, why would Israel bother Lebanon?
They wouldn't. But that's not how the story goes.
From the POV of Israel they've never done anything other than responding, although their notion of "response" is sometimes a little... elastic.
From the other side of the border(s), one of the main threads of argument by the assorted tyrants and bloody-handed religious nuts is that Israel Is Gonna Getcha, so you have to put up with the corruption, torture, suppression of civil rights, etc. and Support Your Local Assholesad because Only He Can Protect You from the Joooooooooos. This chorus has been sung without letup since 1948, and literally no dissenting voices have been tolerated, with the result that even reasonable people like Omega80 and Perpetual Refugee buy in to it, at least on some level. And that makes it possible for Hizb'Allah to stay armed -- they can (1) point out that they stand between Lebanon and the Zionists, thus gaining sympathy (sometimes sub rosa) from the population who have bought the lie, and (2) launch an occasional rocket attack at Israel, which has the dual function of killing a few Jews (triumph!) and inciting the inevitable response from the IDF, which they can then cite as support for point (1). A neat and useful circularity, no?
The IDF's incursion into the territory wasn't an "invasion of Lebanon" at all -- at the time there wasn't any such place in the Westphalian nation-state sense; it was simply an adjoining territory governed by people who were killing their babies with mortar and rocket attacks, and they quite reasonably went to abate the nuisance. People who argue from fear of a Zionist invasion of Lebanon are legitimizing Hizb'Allah, whether they mean to or no.
Regards,
Ric
Right Ric.
Which is why, from Israel's POV, bombing Assad everytime Hezbo farts near the border would solve the HA problem in a fortnight.
Israel's "gloved" approach is a bit of a mystery to me, especially now that no baloney peace process is in the works.
Posted by: JoseyWales at June 4, 2006 05:16 PMMaybe some of you don't know about a little incident a few years ago where by Hezbollah and Israel were fighting it out for about 2 days, and then Israel decided to bomb a Syrian radar station in Lebanon whereby they killed 2 Syrian soldiers. The hour that radar station was bombed, Hezbollah didn't launch an attack on Israel for months.
There are a few keys to Hezbollah's heart, one of them is indeed in Tehran, and the other in Damascus.
Posted by: Omega80 at June 4, 2006 05:44 PMThere are a few keys to Hezbollah's heart, one of them is indeed in Tehran, and the other in Damascus.
It's sad but true that the best hope for peace between Israel and Lebanon seems to be both sides realizing that Syria (and really, Assad) and the mullahs of Iran are to blame.
Ah, poor Lebanon. Such a lovely country to have everyone else use it for their proxy wars. Makes you believe the conspiracy theory that certain Arab leaders don't want a successful democracy (especially multiconfessional) in the region because of the "bad example" it would set for their subjects.
Posted by: John Thacker at June 4, 2006 06:30 PMJohn,
The reason why things are the way they are is because the Lebanese state is a weak state in general. Since the basis of the Lebanese system is many sects jockeying among themselves for power in the system, in the end for the most part they balance each other out. The result is a weakened state.
If Lebanon were situated between Belgium and the Netherlands, this wouldn't be such a problem, but having a weak state in a region where the other states are not weak by any means as a result of their totalitarian nature means that Lebanon is no match for them, and can't counter their influence.
Posted by: Omega80 at June 4, 2006 08:02 PMDearest Carine, it is wonderful to have you back. But this Jerome business must cease at once! Lord only knows where you got it in your head that Jerome is my middle name. (It's James, for those who don't know.)
Have a nargileh at Petit Cafe for me. And a glass of Kefraya at Keyan. Wish I could be there.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at June 4, 2006 08:46 PMThe fact of the matter is that Hezbollah is going to disarm sometime down the road, sooner rather than later. The only other alternative in the long term is civil conflict in Lebanon again.
It's sad but true that the best hope for peace between Israel and Lebanon seems to be both sides realizing that Syria (and really, Assad) and the mullahs of Iran are to blame.
Is the fate of Hezbollah up to Lebanese or foreigners? And if Syria and Iran care only about their own interests, why wouldn't they be happy with a "civil conflict" in Lebanon? Asad wants the distraction and profit and Iran wants southern Lebanon as its base for nuclear-armed missiles. What could make them happier?
Posted by: Solomon2 at June 4, 2006 08:58 PM(The first paragraph is by Omega80, the second is by commenter John Thacker.)
Posted by: Solomon2 at June 4, 2006 09:14 PMAssad just had a fire fight on his hands in Damascus. I'm not so sure the "crown rests easy on his head." But from Israel's point of view (because Arik Sharon said so to Bush); what would happen in Syria IF Assad goes is that his uncle (who is worse) is handed the "prize." I think America, with its hands full in Iraq, won't go about trying to spread democracy any time soon to states bordering Iraq. In other words, Iran's not going to be invaded by American boots. And, neither will Syria.
As to "weak States," or groups who have self-interest, the same example would extend between Jordan and Eygpt, too. Nobody, it seems, among the factions, works for the other. Everybody is in it for themselves.
And, "peace" is a relative term. Israel grew into liking the idea of the Wall. I'll bet there are more Americans, now, also wanting WALLS to go up at our Southern border. But it takes a long time for "ideas" to filter into realities; given how the immigration problem roils. And, soon elected officials might discover that the public votes one way, while they're busy, in Congress, voting another?
Except for a few Israeli blogs, I've seen nothing in the news about what actually happened when Israel responded to "Hizbiz." It was big enough for Nasrallah to make the phone calls necessary to bring in a cease fire. Israel's always stopped by "cease fires" when they're ahead. On the other hand, you'd think the recent skirmish would have cost Nasrallah "somthing." But what?
Posted by: Carol Herman at June 4, 2006 10:14 PMNo offense intended Carol, but do you think you could post comments instead of a series of essays?
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at June 4, 2006 11:42 PMWhy on earth does anyone think that hizbollah will disarm? What is there to force them, moral suasion? It is far more likely that in the fullness of time they will take over and become the Lebanese taliban. Then the same people who are always grousing at Israel will beg them to invade again, and throw flowers on them like in '82.
Posted by: MarkC at June 4, 2006 11:47 PMI think Hizbiz becoming an Iranian funded "leetle Lebanon Taliban" is the more likely outcome, especially if most of the good guys "know" that they will disarm, seemingly magically, sometime in the future.
What are the incentives of the Hizbiz decision makers? They don't want a civil war now; they'll want it less if the rest of Lebanon is armed -- but so what? They don't plan on attacking the rest of Lebanon, whether the Christians & Druze are armed or not seems pretty small incentive for them to give up:
BIG power status in a weak Lebanon,
LOTS of "respect" from the richer, weaker, pro-West folk,
plus Moral Superiority -- believing they are being the "true (jihadi) Muslims".
I see no significant stick to punish them, and none have offered any significant carrots. Where will the push for a change come from?
Perhaps, slowly, a Lebanonese police & military which becomes a joint "all Lebanon except Hizbollah" force might start providing stick pressure. And of course, successful peaceful development in "cool" Beirut provides promised carrots -- but also supports envy hatred and a greater willingness to destroy?
Carrot & stick incentives to the decision makers should be the greater focus.
Posted by: Tom Grey - Libertay Dad at June 5, 2006 12:47 AMIndeed, Hizbullah will not disarm.
Nor will Syria, in its current configuration, leave Lebanon free to tend to its own affairs (assuming that that's even a possibility, though one would sincerely hope that it is).
Nor will the Palestinians (as a group) agree to live side by side with the Zionist entity.
That is, not without some major event to occur to persuade any of them otherwise.
The tragedy of the region is, after all, the existence of the Zionist Entity. And the tragedy of the poor, oppressed, humiliated, impoverished, victimized Palestinians is that they have not, thus far at least, despite all their efforts--and what haven't they tried?--succeeded in eliminating the Jewish State.
Still, The Goal--the dream--remains, no matter how elusive.
Iran understands this and is doing her best, along with her clients and allies in the region, to achieve that glorious goal. And many wish her well, in pursuit of it--even to the extent of knowing that the Palestinians may well have to suffer to achieve it. But then, the Palestinians have always been expendable (they themselves have been demonstrating that they understand as much).
One is speaking here of some of the most ruthless, vicious, mendacious--if ideologically driven--SOBs on the planet. But for us--who even at this stage have failed to acknowledge even The Goal--this rather glaring aspect seems, alas, just a bit beyond our capabilities to comprehend.
Posted by: Barry Meislin at June 5, 2006 12:53 AMThe key to hezb is Iran, and more precisely Iranian money.
The popularity of HA is based on two things: The free social services they offer (Free hospitals, schools etc) and the fear of their weapons (Who would want to be against a big armed guy who is not accountable for its actions).
Both weapons and services need aloot of money. HA supposedly gets 500 millions $ from Iran every year.
I believe that if you remove their money they will implode. They are a very big organisation with huge running costs, it will be very difficult for them to find other funds.
Israel knows how to stop the borders attacks if it wants to: Shell Assad (everytime Omega, not once every ten years) BTW where's LFPM blog now?.
That's their (Israel) business, they assess their costs and benefits. And yes, maybe they are not too unhappy with us Leb assholes fighting a never ending civil war.
The Lebs have their own cost benefit assessment to make. The pain and destruction of the last 35 years is apparently not enough for people to draw the obvious conclusions.
On conclusion being: we are not located between Sweden and Switzerland, and that without a strong state/policy, and without extracting ourselves from the Palestine obsession/delusion there is little hope but to live crisis-to-crisis.
Hezbo and its fans are getting what they want: confrontation and weak state.
The other 90% are getting nothing from their sectaran leadership, but are sticking with it. They'll get what they deserve.
Posted by: JoseyWales at June 5, 2006 04:41 AM"Ah, poor Lebanon. Such a lovely country to have everyone else use it for their proxy wars."
Any country so "poor" doesn't derserve to be treated as a country. Stand up or shut up.
Posted by: John at June 5, 2006 05:33 AMJosey, the Blog should be back on soon. Actually the forum is moving to the FPM's official site, so where the forum was is going to be the new Blog, if all goes according to plan.
Posted by: Omega80 at June 5, 2006 06:26 AMthe only parties who can get hezbollah to disarm are syria and iran, whether directly (instructing them to) or indirectly (cutting funding/supplies of men and materiel). that's where the sticks and carrots need to be directed.
which reinforces the point of an earlier post of michael's-- bombing beirut in response to HA activities against israel is incredibly counterproductive. it would only serve to consolidate (and expand) the perception that israel is a threat to the lebanese population.
If Hezbollah is disarmed, why would Israel bother Lebanon?
for any number of reasons, the most likely of which being the same reason they "bothered" lebanon in the first place-- an armed palestinian presence in the country.
in my opinion, disarming the palestinians should be the priority, especially in light of recent events (palestinian attacks on the lebanese army).
Posted by: carine at June 5, 2006 09:39 AMNo matter how often the arabs suggest it, the Israelis bombing Assad's assets doesn't seem very likely. Nor does it seem likely the Americans, at Syria's Iraq border, are gonna "to go Damascus."
Even in france, it seems, attitudes are changing. Since the pals are losing support there. I guess you could ask how this happens, since Israel's done nothing to change attitudes in france.
I'd guess that the Israelis no longer seek "marriage" with the arabs in their midst. The walls and fences are an indication of DIVORCE. Yet, like the Gates of Vienna, it looks as if Israel has stopped the arabs "from realizing their nazi dreams." And, ya know what? hitler's still dead.
Maybe, a better question to ask is that with Hizbiz in business, does it affect tourism to Beirut? If tourism, which was growing well, is not growing as fast these days, whose not coming? Lebanon wasn't counting on traffic from Israel, ya know?
Posted by: Carol Herman at June 5, 2006 10:09 AMBy the way, there was an odd comment in the Jerusalem Post, yesterday. Avi Dichter said he would like to see Gaza hit with the same force that went into Southern Lebanon, to knock out the capabilities of the flying kassems coming from Gaza.
It developed into a discussion where Dichter was told by Olmert that Olmert is satisfied with both IDF responses. From this I notice that Hizbiz took some sort of a hit on its dug in positions. To say that Assad got away scot free is silly. Whatever money it cost to build up that stuff at Israel's border, it's gone now. It will take more money to rebuild it. Maybe, Israel has in mind to make it worth less to Assad to re-invest in rebuilding after the current setback? WHich no one can detail.
Maybe, the Lebanese should put up some road signs with arrows? So they can point towards syria? And, when the little kids get sent out with rocks to throw, they can shout "over there!" There's a lot of noise, here. But not much news.
Posted by: Carol Herman at June 5, 2006 10:16 AMcarol, tourism in lebanon is doing very well.
in 2004, the number of tourists in lebanon exceeded one million (1.3 million, in fact) for the first time since before the war. there was, of course, a decline in visitors during 2005 due to the aftermath of the hariri assassination, bombings, etc., but the sector seems to have bounced back. over 1.5 million tourists are expected to visit in 2006-- a new post-war record.
and it is worth noting that in addition to these overall increases, lebanon is seeing a greater number of tourists from outside the arab world-- including europe and north america-- every year.
you may be disappointed to hear it, but growth in the sector hasn't slowed-- quite the opposite. hezbollah's impact on tourism seems to be pretty neglible.
Posted by: carine at June 5, 2006 11:48 AMCarol,
Following up with what Carine said: Hezbollah's impact on tourism should be negligible. They hunker down in areas no (normal) tourist would ever want to go anyway. I imagine that anyone who knows enough about Lebanon to want to visit is well aware of this.
Most Lebanese I know have never been to the Hezbollah areas. I asked one friend of mine why. He said "What am I supposed to do down there? Go sight-seeing?" He thought I was crazy for even thinking he would ever set foot there.
I know a couple of Lebanese who did go down there and had the same reaction: This is not my country.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at June 5, 2006 12:15 PMCarine and Michael,
I don't think the point is whether tourists are up, or down 200 in June or July of 2006.
HA actions (as well as others' such as the idiotic Karami memorial in the North) have a huge negative impact on the economy/investment/employment.
The point is that the future is on hold indefinitely.
Posted by: JoseyWales at June 5, 2006 01:24 PMjosey-- actually, it was the point. carol specifically inquired about tourism.
in general though, i do agree with you of course.
Posted by: carine at June 5, 2006 02:00 PMCarol and Carine,
The fact that tourism is up again in
Lebanon is good news.
In Israel it's growing as well, especially
in the northern part.
Tourism, not like other kinds of economic fields
is security sensitive.
Tourists want to have their vacation in a quiet
and peaceful place. So now it is both countries interest to keep quiet.
I'm sure that if/when there will be peace you will see 1.000.000 Israelis visit Lebanon instead of flying to Turkey.
Well, Amir, I'm not there. I did notice in reading Michael Totten's wonderful posts from Beirut; including how his mom visited and loved it; that he was lamenting that tourism wasn't as good as it could be.
I've also noticed that Olmert went to Egypt. And, there he apologized for the IDF's shooting of two terrorists who were dressed as Eygptian policemen. And, it dawned on me that Egypt, on a diplomatic level, has good relations with Mubarak. But no such counterpart exists in Lebanon. Dunno why.
I also noticed that the IDF used a different approach when it responded to Nasrallah's recent "shoot off." In other words Nasrallah may have been expecting that Israel would NOT react at all. OR, if it reacted to provocation, it would look similar to what it does down in gaza.
Avi Dichter said the two types of responses were different. Olmert said, "yes." And, also said that it would remain that way. (Gaza isn't gonna get shot apart the way the IDF responded up North.)
I also know that Nasrallah wanted the shooting to stop. And, IF there were calls from Lebanon to Israel, Olmert wasn't picking up the phone. So, others in Lebanon had to be roused. They had to call Condi. And, Condi and Bolton were probably in touch. It seems the Israelis reacted to DC's call. (Not to signs carried by Lebanese that says "please shoot the other way.")
Is Assad happy with the way things worked out? WHy would he be? Again there's very little information. But, for sure, the kids carrying rocks were not shot. And, when the terrorists ran into the UN buildings, nothing was touched. Then, when the terrorists left, each and every one of them was killed. Also, Nasrallah's anti-tank missiles hit nothing. Nada. No casualties on the Israeli side. While it's possible that the kids who were throwing rocks had parents who were terrorists; and those parents are now dead.
The issue of Israel threatening to "bomb Beirut" brought a response in the Israeli press from Halutz, who said: Nasrallah knows what we mean.
What did Israel get? Probably a period of quiet.
What did Nasrallah get? Well, he was preparing for something else. When he learned he can't control the border by escalating on it.
As to tourism, aside, Beirut is a port city. And, the Princess Cruise Line just returned it's second ship into a London port, with a thousand sick passengers. This, too, affects tourism.
Israel's tourism is doing well, now. But I have no idea how many people then make the four hour trip up to Beirut. I presume "not many." Do Israelis vacation outside of their country? Of course they do. Turkey gets business. Thailand gets business. But pumping up the business here, for there? Really? Every day I learn of something new that works.
Posted by: Carol Herman at June 5, 2006 03:28 PMThe idea that Hezbollah will "disarm" and "sooner rather than later" seems like complete Alice in Wonderland dreaming to me.
That's like saying wey're going to "disarm everyone in NYC".... yeah ok!
Even if you got Hezbollah to concede to a gradual disarmament, which they most likely (my $$ is on not) would never do... you'll get some symbolic display with AL REUTERS, AP AND AFP photographs showing a few weapons being gathered up and all smiles for "the peace of Lebanon" blah blah blah....
Hezbollah will ALWAYS keep the bulk of their weapons and the biggest ones in secret, in private houses, in private storage and if need be if too big, a few yards over the Syrian border.
BUT YOU ARE NEVER GOING TO GET HEZBOLLAH TO DISARM VOLUNTARILY.... YOU CAN BET THE HOUSE ON THAT....
When they do that let me know when Hamas and the "PLO" "Fatah" "Al Asqua" etc... do as well.
You are looking at a LOnnnnnnnng drawn out process of decades of political pressure slow and wrangling with increasing pressure on Hezbollah to give up power and arms... you're looking at a pyschological war in Lebanon and abroad with Iran and Syria murdering Lebanese and Israelis to try and prevent it EVERY FRIGGIN STEP OF THE WAY....
And as a pessimist I NEVER DISCOUNT (even the average Lebanese) Arab's gut instinct to suspect and hate Israel as the "probably boogey man and bad guy"....
Mike
PS When Hezbollah disarms let me know and I'll buy some lottery tickets too.
Posted by: Mike Nargizian at June 5, 2006 03:37 PMAnd what I mean by not discounting the gut instinct of the "average Arab" (Arab World Zeitgeist at the least) to blame and suspect Israel of everrrrrrrrrrrrything.
Is that I'm unfortunately putting my $$ on the Syria, Iran and Hezbollah to be able to prevent any fantasy disarmament of them..... utilizing this.... even if Assad is a moron shadow of his disgustingly cynically brilliant father.
Again, a people worthy of no human traits or sympathy... that is nothing but "pure evil" even if "Hezbollah may be a worse problem".... you have the seeds planted firmly (even in Lebanon) for the reflexive "blame Israel".... and eventually the chinless f***head will figure out how to play this Arab propaganda card better in Lebanon.
Mike
Posted by: Mike Nargizian at June 5, 2006 03:43 PMWhat are the main underlying principles at play here? I think Mike is correct.
Omega and others have hopes that Hezbullah will disarm. Are you too close to the picture, or am I too distant?
If Hezbullah is Syria*s and Iran*s front line against the march of democracy. Government of the people for the people and by the people and not by dictators posing as mystic religious leaders, the I can not understand how anyone can hope they will ever disarm. TG
Posted by: TonyGuitar at June 6, 2006 11:53 AMThey never will of course. At best you may get some "steps" and "talks" and "understandings" and shows of hugging and "peace for Lebanon" and then kissing up to how "heroic Nasrallah is" etc... and then another show for the cameras of a few guys gathering up some machine guns.
Posted by: Mike Nargizian at June 6, 2006 07:02 PMSadly, exactly. TG
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