August 21, 2005

Drifters

Callimachus comes up with a geographic political metaphor over at Donklephant.

[T]he nation as a whole has drifted right. So [the] old center-right is now more like center-center. Maybe we’re working on a continental drift metaphor here. As the country drifts right, the “anchored” left stays put, and cracks off from the center left. A gap opens and the disconnected fringe becomes an island adrift, a Madagascar, where natural traits exaggerate and exotic species evolve.
I don’t think the country has moved to the right so much as the country has moved on. The world has changed since 1968. People who haven’t changed in the meantime aren’t stranded on the left so much as they are stranded in time.

History always moves on. The country moves left at the same time it moves right. Some conservatives are breaking off from the center-right over Israel/Palestine and are lashing out as we speak.

Our Administration has jumped off the deep end and needs to be kicked out at our earliest opportunity:
U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said on Wednesday that Israel will be expected to carry out further withdrawals that would ultimately lead to an independent Palestinian state, Israeli sources reported. Rice said that she feels for those settlers being evacuated, but "It cannot be Gaza only."

And to think that we once thought highly of Mrs. Rice. Well, no longer...

Thank you for allowing me to leave the Republican party for good and not feel in the least bit bad about it. The only thing I DO feel bad about is the time and expense I've put into stumping for you in the past. No more. You're dead to me from now on.

I don't consort with swine.
I suppose you could say that crowd is drifting even further to the right. But I think they'd deny it, and I think they'd be right. The country has - correctly, in my opinion - quietly moved to the left on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That's because the intifada is no longer what it recently was. It has been beaten back, and history is moving on without some people.

UPDATE: Asher Abrams found a more apt comparison than I did, and he found it in Israel.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at August 21, 2005 01:32 AM
Comments

Whether it's Gaza first or Gaza only (except for the West Bank settlements being evacuated now) will depend on the Palestinians themselves and their response to the Gaza withdrawal.

If Gaza turns into Hamas-stan and a base for ongoing terrorist activity, no U.S. administration will be able to convincing Israel to cede another inch.

By the way, I think the process of "moving on" happened to the Israeli body politic just ahead of the United States. The vast majority of Israelis are as untouched by the histrionics of the far right as they are of the far left -- which is why the emotional blackmail surrounding the disengagement isn't really working.

Posted by: Allison at August 21, 2005 03:42 AM

There are extraordinary efforts going on every day to protect the Israeli people. I don't think beaten back is the correct term.
The Intifasda may have slipped from the front pages but it has not stopped by any means.
I wonder what we would do if the number of missles that hit Israel started hitting say Laredo.

Posted by: Starhawk at August 21, 2005 04:29 AM

Michael,
You're absolutely correct that the country is not drifting any direction, but you continue the metaphore.
Sides are changing, not really drifting.

Let's take your example of Israel:
Originally, the Left loved Israel. The kibbutz was held high and Israel's socialist policies were touted widely. Israel was also a place where DEMOCRATIC socialism worked, and the regime was not as heinous as the other "socialist" dictatorships surrounding Israel.
Israel was great for soft lefties. It was an American ally and not an odious regime. Sure, Syria, Iraq, Palestinians, and Egypt touted socialist propaganda and were close Soviet and East German allies, but as an American leftist would you want to be friends with them?

I've heard that many leftists at that time were Jewish, which would lead one to assume that Israel was good for being both a social democracy and a Jewish state, but I have only heard anecdotes.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Left has forgotten about economic equality. Sure, there are the riots during the WTO, IMF, and World Bank meetings. But those do not represent a constant concerted effort, and they are merely a gaggle of unrelated groups that want to commit violent acts publicly: anarchists, legalize hemp cronies, and people strongly desiring to Free Mumia.

Now, the Lefties are focusing on human rights, which was so neglected during the Cold War. The abuses are being reported.
Also, the Palestinians have become friendly faces. Until the 87 Intifada, the Palestinians were an armed brigade terrorizing the Israel's and causing wars where ever they went: Jordan and Lebanon. In '82, Arafat and the PLO dropped off the map in Tunis.
The Intifada was started by Palestinian civilians fed up with Israeli rule. The PLO had to play catchup to try to take credit for the campaign.
It's hard to hate civilians.

Then, in 1991 the Israelis agreed to legitimize talks with the PLO. After Oslo, the Palestinian Authority held global recognition as a decent partner for peace, regardless of the nuances. Arafat got the Nobel, for crying out loud.

So, the face of Palestine changed and so did the face of the Left. And even the leftists who kept their economic equality face have to go with Palestine now. There are no Kibbutzim left in Israel, and the Israelis control all the means of production that the Palestinians use to barely survive. Not only is Israel rich and Palestine poor, but Israel control's the right of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza to work and provide for their families. Gaza has an unemployment rate of 45% and the people who are working aren't making much.

Drifting just makes it sound obvious when it's not.

Secondly, the drifts are just different emphasis on different issues.
The biggest drift I've noticed in America is over the death penalty. Americans used to be fervent cheerleaders for it, and now fewer and fewer are strong death penalty advocates.

Posted by: lebanon.profile at August 21, 2005 04:31 AM

With respect I just don't accept your anlysis of the current state of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
You quote a typical rant from a very very conservative(and usually intemperate) site as proof that the country is moving towards an acceptance of Palestinian demands.

The country has not moved anywhere nor has Secretary Rice who operates on the values of her Boss, GWB. Everybody is waiting for the Palestinians to once again screw things up in their time honoured fashion after which Israel will sit behind the soon to be completed WALL and ride out the resultant mess with as few casualties as possible.

You take as a given that the Gaza withdrawl is the first step in a PEACE accord. Well if pigs fly,and Abbas grows a spine, it might well be, but the more likely rationale for it is purely tactical. It is a planned, orderly withdrawl to more defensible lines of permanent defense.

There will be no real pressure on Israel until Abbas gets a grip on the loonies, and we can expect that to happen about the first of Never. Would you be spending a billion on a WALL, if you thought the neighbours were anything but trouble?

Posted by: dougf at August 21, 2005 07:50 AM

That's because the intifada is no longer what it recently was. It has been beaten back, and history is moving on without some people.

Maybe obvious displays of hatred and hostility have been "beaten back", thanks to targeted assassinations and security barriers and some well placed rubber bullets. But suicide bombers are still planning their attacks and the war on Israel continues unabated. Today Gaza, tommorow Jerusalem-- their words. And not just Hamas. Abu Abbas is saying this too, even though the MSM does it's darndest to keep quiet about it. Nothing has changed, and they aren't going to stop just because you read a book by Tom Friedman.

Posted by: spaniard at August 21, 2005 08:19 AM

The world will go on in some form. Due to ongoing differences, conflict will be heavy & bloody between east & west until differences are resolved. As far as I can see, religious and cultural differences are historical problems that will never be completly resolved. Accept that and you can at least understand and have some dialog and less conflict.

Gene

Posted by: at August 21, 2005 08:49 AM

THere is a link on Instapundit.com to a very good column by GLoria Salt (I think that is her name) about this move. Her opinion is that this is a calculated risk by Sharon, who is guessing that the Palestinians won't change their stripes. If they don't, he is now in a much better tactical situation to respond (doesn't have to worry about the settlers) and in a much better strategic situation vis-a-vis world opinion (as much as that can ever be the case with Israel!) since he made the move, and they didn't do their part. And if by some chance the Palestinians do follow through on their share, he looks like a genius.

Posted by: exhelodrvr at August 21, 2005 09:13 AM

I agree with dougf about Sharon's move. Walls and fences make good neighbors. I would like an Israeli wall/fence complex on our southern border and parts of the North.

As for 'drifting', it's the same groups, but the right is gaining, while the left is losing. I think it is all the political correctness and multiculturalism. The public is OD'ing on it. Unfortunately, for a lot of them, it is still the drug of choice.

Regarding Condi, they have been trashing her on JihadWatch for days. I admit I did participate and even put up an article about her on my blog to point our how ridiculous her position on Islam is.

Pedestrian Infidel
The Pedestrian Infidel Blog

Posted by: Pedestrian Infidel at August 21, 2005 12:08 PM

Well, as a Democrat who never liked Ms. Rice, history is moving on without me as well.

To continue asking more from the Israelis without securing anything from Mahmoud Abbas is shameful on hers, and Bush's, part.

On the "unilateral disengagement," Hamas is claiming victory, Abbas is congratulating the sacrifice of the martyrs.

And what do Rice and Bush have to say to the Israelis?

Give more! And don't ask for anything in return.

Has the U.S. done anything concrete about Palestinian non-compliance with the road map? Have we even pushed for an investigation on the American government officials killed by Palestinian terrorists on their way to give interviews for Fullbright scholarship candidates?

Why doesn't the U.S. government just get it over with and start meeting with Hamas?

Oh wait, we already have.

Thanks, Bush/Rice.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 12:56 PM

MJT writes: The country has - correctly, in my opinion - quietly moved to the left on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That's because the intifada is no longer what it recently was.

Are you sure that's why?

It's not because more Americans are buying into the Juan Cole/Michael Scheuer propaganda that all of our terrorist problems stem from the Israeli/Palestinian conflict and after the establishment of a Palestinian state, al Qaeda will no longer be a threat to us?

The intifada has slowed down because Israel beat it back and built a wall - but it has not ended by the choice of the Palestinians - who are even more emboldened now by the pull out.

There was just a suicide bombing - Islamic Jihad - this past spring in a mall in Netanya.

I know you are familiar with the rhetoric from Hamas. And I know you also are aware that it does not match up with the Western media perception of the "aspirations" of the Palestinian people. And I assume you know that Hamas has not changed, and that they are gaining in popularity in Gaza and the West Bank.

Abbas has done nothing to stop them. He's having a frickin' poster war with them in Gaza as to who's more responsible for getting the Israelis out of there - and he's losing.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 01:09 PM

SoCalJustice,

The Israelis are not leaving Gaza because the intifada drove them out. They are leaving Gaza because they can now that the intifada has been dramatically weakened.

Hamas can claim "victory" all they want, but it's transparently a farce. Saddam Hussein said he "won" the first Gulf War against the United States, but that doesn't mean he did.

It does not matter what Hamas thinks. It matters what Hamas does and can do.

If this move strengthens Hamas, Israelis can go right back into Gaza any time they feel like it.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 21, 2005 02:14 PM

I don't think Rice should be criticized, not because I agree with her, but because it looks like a chess move.

Posted by: banopus at August 21, 2005 02:33 PM

The Israelis are not leaving Gaza because the intifada drove them out. They are leaving Gaza because they can now that the intifada has been dramatically weakened

That is ridiculous. It was the stated, explicit policy of the Likud party to create a "greater Israel" incorporating the WB and Gaza. Why the hell do you think that those settlements were established in the first place? So that they could be left someday to be part of a Palestinian homeland? No, obviously not. They were intended to be the leading edge of an Israeli incorporation of those areas into a greater Israel. That plan, persued for decades, has now been abandonded.

You make it sound as if the Israelis were just itching to get out of Gaza, but could only do so once they managed to suppress the insurgency. That is ridiculous. Much as it pains me to say so, since I detest terrorism as much as you or anyone else, the fact is that if there were no armed and viscious resistance, there would now be tens of thousands, or more, settlers in Gaza.

You may be correct in the very short, or medium term perspective. Israel was not routed out of Gaza. Perhaps a better characterization would be a controlled and orderly redeployment to the rear. The rationale given by Sharon, quite correctly, is that he is rationalizing Israel's defense lines - that it is just absurdly expensive in terms of lives and treasure to deploy the necessary forces to protect the settlers. But this exposes the underlying fact - the settlers are not safe in Gaza for there is armed resistance. Hamas et.al. have simply made it too expensive for the Israelis to continue the settlements, and in that sense, an overall long term perspective, they are quite correct that their activities have led to the Gaza withdrawl.

I would join you in wishing it were not the case, but I dont see how the situation can be honestly assessed in any other way.

Posted by: Observer at August 21, 2005 02:35 PM

Why don't we create a Jewish state in between Canada and the U.S.? Israel is tiny and if we split the difference it wouldn't require much land. Problem solved.

Posted by: Mike#3or4 at August 21, 2005 02:46 PM

Observer,

Most Israelis opposed holding onto Gaza long before the second intifada and the election of Ariel Sharon. The first intifada, which was dramatically less violent and far more defensible than the second, doomed the "Greater Israel" project.

Israelis have their own reasons for needing to get the hell out of the West Bank and Gaza that have nothing to do with getting out of the way of jihad. It's in their own best interests. It's also only fair to the Palestinians. Most Israelis know this and have known this for years. Israel is bigger than just the Likud Party, and it's way bigger than the settler movement.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 21, 2005 02:50 PM

MJT The Israelis are not leaving Gaza because the intifada drove them out. They are leaving Gaza because they can now that the intifada has been dramatically weakened.

They are leaving because Sharon wants to preserve a Jewish majority in Israel "controlled" land - cutting of a piece of land with a ratio of 1.3 million to 8 thousand - and because he thinks giving up Gaza unilaterally will get the world off his back in terms of doing something about the West Bank.

I'm in favor of disengagement from Gaza - just not unilateral disengagement. Get something in return - even a paper promise that can be held over Abbas' head when he fails.

It does not matter what Hamas thinks. It matters what Hamas does and can do.

Islamic Jihad - a group weaker and smaller than Hamas - sent a suicide bomber to a mall in Netanya recently.

Will Hamas be less capable after months of having a completely free hand in Gaza? I doubt it.

If this move strengthens Hamas, Israelis can go right back into Gaza any time they feel like it.

And have the U.N., the E.U., the Arab League, and the American far-left whining about Israeli provocations and violations of international law.

Awesome.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 02:52 PM

SoCalJustice: And have the U.N., the E.U., the Arab League, and the American far-left whining about Israeli provocations and violations of international law.

That's going to happen no matter what Israel does. Therefore the whining will be ignored. It won't factor in at all.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 21, 2005 03:00 PM

And just to be clear, my criticsm of the way things are going in Israel right now do not come from the the political "right."

I am in favor of a two-state solution. I am not a fan of many in the settler movement, nor do I feel Israel needs Gaza or the West Bank for general, long term security reasons.

I just want a negotiated process that ends up having at least some negative affect on Palestinian terrorist groups like Hamas, Islamic Jihad and AAMB.

This move makes them look like heroes, much the way the Lebanon withdrawal turned Hezbollah into Islamic "champions" in most of the Arab, Muslim and far-Left American circles.

Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it. Sharon is proving that.

I'm just not optimistic that this is the way to go.

Arafat is dead. Thankfully. And Sharon could have - and should have - used that death to get out of his unilateral mode and demand something in return from Abbas.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 03:04 PM

Hamas can claim "victory" all they want, but it's transparently a farce.

It doesn't matter what you, Michael, believe. What matters is what everybody in the Arab world believes. And they believe Hamas.

But tell me, if withdrawing to "more defensible" lines is not a withdrawal under fire, what is it?

The only farce here is being maintained by Israel and the pro-appeasers.

Posted by: spaniard at August 21, 2005 03:16 PM

MJT: That's going to happen no matter what Israel does. Therefore the whining will be ignored. It won't factor in at all.

But why even be in that position to begin with?

How about actually requiring Abbas to deal with Hamas and others before giving him anything?

Sharon (and Bush) give him Gaza without asking for anything in return, why should Abbas ever make any "painful sacrifices" on his own accord?

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 03:21 PM

From the original post:

The country has - correctly, in my opinion - quietly moved to the left on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

I'd be all in favor of that if moving to the left meant a return to bilateral negotiations, where both sides are required to make concessions and live up to certain requirements.

Giving away Gaza for nothing in return - not even a thank you - is some strange hybrid of a far-left and deluded semi-Likud (Sharon and Olmert) garage sale.

There will be some positive benefits to Israel, for sure. It's a quick fix, and I can only hope it's the right one. It seems shortsighted to me.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 03:44 PM

SoCalJustice,

Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon dealt a serious body blow to Hezbollah's standing inside Lebanon. I did not realize just how true that really was until I went to Lebanon and listened to local people talk about Hezbollah.

From the Sunni point of view, the Cedar Revolution was against Hezbollah almost as much as it was against Syria. The reason the second anti-Syrian rally in Martyr's Square was so gigantic is because the Sunnis felt they had to respond to the Hezbollah rally that preceded it.

When Israel still occupied South Lebanon even the Christians were pro-Hezbollah. The Christians will never, ever, be pro-Hezbollah again. Nor will the Sunnis or the Druze. Any and all "alliances" with Hezbollah inside Lebanon today are based purely on tactical internal realpolitik horse-trading.

Hezbollah claimed "victory" when Israel left Lebanon. But the joke was on Hezbollah. Israel isn't circling the drain. Hezbollah now is, slowly but surely.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 21, 2005 03:48 PM

re. the Hezbollah example:
Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it. Sharon is proving that

What does history teach you? It is true that Hezbollah takes credit for the withdrawl of Israel from Lebanon, but so what? Who cares what they say to burnish their image. Fact is that they are no longer engaging in any terrorism against Israel.

Posted by: at August 21, 2005 04:16 PM

MJT:

I only hope that's the case.

It surely is not the narrative I read in Arab media or in the Leftist (or Rightist - paleocon) pro-Arab American journals and websites.

Not to mention, Hezbollah now has membership in the Lebanese cabinet and maintains its own army. Doesn't seem like there's too much of a joke on them. If but most Lebanese were like Tony Badran.

To change topics - slighlty - as I sit here, I'm watching Michael Scheuer spew his anti-Israel propaganda on 60 Minutes.

He failed to kill Bin Laden and failed to convince his superiors to try harder to do so.

9/11 happened.

And ever since, even while still working at the CIA, he has been trying to pin it on mostly on our relationship with Israel.

Yes, Muslims and Arabs hate our relationship with Israel. They hate many more things about us, and if "Palestine" replaces Israel, we will still have an al Qaeda problem.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 04:18 PM

Israel isn't circling the drain. Hezbollah now is, slowly but surely

Is it not the case that they are now part of the government, for the first time?

Why do you think it remarkable that the Christians were pro-Hez during occupation but now arent? Why do you think this is a sign of decline? Seems to me that Hez was never a natural political vehicle for the Christians - they got support from the Christians because they were fighting occupation - now they revert to a normal political role as a medium for the political expression of their natural constituency.

I dont know if that is true, but it seems more likely than your hypothesis.

Posted by: Observer at August 21, 2005 04:21 PM

Fact is that they are no longer engaging in any terrorism against Israel.

That's not true.

This is from June 30, 2005:

UN Security Council condemns (Hezbollah) guerrilla 'attack on Israel'

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 04:26 PM

It seems self-evident to me that in a "liberated" Gaza, absent any demands on Abbas to do anything about terrorist groups, Hamas will go stronger.

Will Abbas, all on his own, see it in his best interest to get his security forces to crack down on Hamas? Probably not.

When Hamas wins elections in Gaza next year, will they decide that attacking Israelis every opportunity they got is not something that helped them at the polls?

Apply this logic to Iraq.

If George Bush decided that it was in America's best interests to leave Iraq today (what the pro-"peace" left and the paleo-con right have been demanding), what happens when the "insurgents" and Zarqawi/al-Qaeda jihadists claim victory?

Nothing - because they won't be able to govern or attack American troops anymore?

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 04:41 PM

Observer: Why do you think it remarkable that the Christians were pro-Hez during occupation but now arent? Why do you think this is a sign of decline? Seems to me that Hez was never a natural political vehicle for the Christians - they got support from the Christians because they were fighting occupation - now they revert to a normal political role as a medium for the political expression of their natural constituency. I dont know if that is true, but it seems more likely than your hypothesis.

Perhaps you misunderstood me. What you just said doesn't contradict what I wrote at all. It complements it. What you said is correct.

Seems to me that Hez was never a natural political vehicle for the Christians - they got support from the Christians because they were fighting occupation

Exactly. Likewise, Hamas is not a natural political vehicle for most Palestinians. Israeli occupation artificially inflates support for Hamas.

Hamas will not go away after an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza. Hamas will still want to destroy Israel utterly. But an Israeli withdrawal will naturally encourage more Palestinians to oppose Hamas. Hamas, ultimately, is a threat to everyone but itself.

Whether the Palestinians actually fight Hamas any time soon remains to be seen. But from the Israeli point of view it only matters insofar as Hamas is actually capable of harming Israelis. Beyond that they are primarily a Palestinian problem, just as Hezbollah is now primarily a Lebanese problem.

Hezbollah's seething against Israel is all about internal Lebanese posturing. They need an excuse to hold onto their weapons. The reason they want to hold onto their weapons is because they want to use them as a bargaining chip for increased power inside Lebanon. Israel is mostly just a prop for them. If Israel can reduce itself to a mere prop in Hamas's melodrama, Israel wins.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at August 21, 2005 04:59 PM

MJT: Hezbollah's seething against Israel is all about internal Lebanese posturing.

It might seem like that, unless you happen to be Uzi Peretz, or his family and friends.

I know that statement may appear flip, but if and when Hezbollah feels like they're losing relevance, they will not just give a few "Death to the Jews and America" speeches - they will also launch more cross border attacks to regain it.

I'll believe they're a non-factor when someone in Lebanon has the guts to disarm them.

Same with Hamas.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 05:51 PM

Hamas will not go away after an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza. Hamas will still want to destroy Israel utterly

If Israel can reduce itself to a mere prop in Hamas's melodrama, Israel wins

I think that Hamas will face a choice, sometime soon. They are armed, but they are also a potiical force. They will not thrive if they do not have support from the people.

The Palestinians have known, for a long time, that Israel would take all the land unless they were opposed - with force. The settlements were not a punishment for Palestinian violence - they were part of an agenda for incorporating all of the land into Israel. Without violent resistance, that plan would have been implemented. And so the Palestinian people gave support to the violent fighters, out of necessity.

To the extent that Israel makes it clear, by action, that they no longer have such aspirations, and will accept a Palestinian state, the people will most likely accept that. And although Hamas will always be viewed as heros for their role in the resistance, they will no longer win support unless they accept the verdict of the people.

Will they do that? Some terrorist organizations do it. Sinn Fein seems to be doing it. We'll see.

In the end, these organizations are only truly dangerous if they have some relativly widespred support. When the support base moves away, the organizatios either follow, or wither.

Posted by: Observer at August 21, 2005 06:41 PM

settlements were not a punishment for Palestinian violence - they were part of an agenda for incorporating all of the land into Israel. Without violent resistance, that plan would have been implemented.

If there was no violence, there would have been a Palestinian state in the Gaza and 97% of the West Bank five years ago, if not long before that.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 06:44 PM

To the extent that Israel makes it clear, by action, that they no longer have such aspirations, and will accept a Palestinian state, the people will most likely accept that.

Bet you are wrong here. I think the withdrawal is the right thing to do, but... the Palestinians could have had a state long ago and I think too many folks in Palestine see their power and influence resting on continued war with Israel. The urge to attain and keep power trumps most everything, as the last century amply illustrated. My prediction: Israel has more defensible borders and a more defensible moral position, the Palestinian violence continues unabated except as it suffers defeat.

Posted by: chuck at August 21, 2005 07:53 PM

I don't have the qoute but in addition to the "it can't just be Gaza" line Rice also said that the PLO must disarm Hamas and the other armed terrorist groups. She didn't ask for a oral commitment, she asked for a weapons dump. Hamas won't do it so the pressure for Israel to leave the West Bank will not be strong without Hamas and Hezz getting rid of their weapons. To leave that fact out of her statement perverts the full meaning of her statement. Virtually every peace plan has included some form of withdrawl from the West Bank so it is not like Rice has created a new dynamic. And since the PLO can't control their own people let alone Hamas I don't see the West Bank redeployment happening soon. The West Bank and Gaza will not be handled in the same fashion. And Israel won't leave with a armed Hamas still preaching for the destruction of Israel. The PLO must deliver hamas and the rest before Israel will move in the West Bank.

Posted by: kevinpeters at August 21, 2005 08:13 PM

SoCal,
I think it ridiculous to assert that there would have been Pal State by now if Arafat had accepted Camp David.

It is totally ludicrous to assert that there could have been one "long before that".

Arafat could not have accepted Camp David for several reasons. One, it was an incomplete agreement that left some serious issues unresolved. It was a monumental step for the Israelis, but not quite far enough. Two, his own people were not prepared to accept it (lots of blame to him for that). Third, the Israelis were not prepared for it either - Barak was way out front of his own people. Not all of them - perhaps even a majority would have gone along, but not a very large and very passionate minority.

I do think it was necesseary for the hard-right, for Sharon, to be the one to make the final peace - the old Nixon in China syndrome. I remember thinking when he was elected that it would probably be a disaster. What were the odds that Sharon would play the Nixon role? Maybe I may yet be shown wrong on that.

I remember my second thought though, once I entertained the hope that maybe Sharon would do it. It was that perhaps he would need to make peace with Hamas. The two most hard-assed extremists on each side make peace, then it would really hold. When the peacemakers on both side make an agreement (Genevea accords) it comes to nothing.

Posted by: Observer at August 21, 2005 08:27 PM

So Cal Justice -- "If there was no violence, there would have been a Palestinian state in the Gaza and 97% of the West Bank five years ago, if not long before that."

Prior to the six-day war, of course, this was the case. Post-1967, both Labor and Likud, and the vast majority of the Israeli electorate, were completely opposed to the idea of ever giving away the West Bank and Gaza. The mainstream idea was that someday Palestinians might be granted some sort of autonomy under the state of Israel. Resolution 242 was held to have been completely implemented when the Sinai was returned. It was not until after the first intifada that support for a Palestinian state became mainstream.

No intifada, no Palestinian state, ever.

Of course, the key for the Palestinians was to know when to stop fighting and bargain seriously. And I join everyone else in agreeing that December 2000 was that time.

Hopefully, Hamas will prove itself to be the Palestinian version of Jabotinsky and the revisionist Zionist movement, who in addition to their terrorist activities maintained that the zionist state ought to include the ENTIRE British mandate, including the Kingdom of Transjordan. Ben-Gurion put this movement in its place during the late forties -- Abbas needs to do the same.

Posted by: Markus at August 21, 2005 08:44 PM

Observer:
I think it ridiculous to assert that there would have been Pal State by now if Arafat had accepted Camp David.

It is totally ludicrous to assert that there could have been one "long before that".

I assert the very same thing. A viable Palestinian state has been offered many times throughout history and rejected by PLO chairman Arafat, in the hope that violence against Jews would lead to an even more favorable outcome. Oslo, Camp David, Taba - all of these led to more Palestinian terror attacks.

The two most hard-assed extremists on each side make peace, then it would really hold.

You should realise that there are people who disagree with your loaded language. Comparing Ariel Sharon to fundamentalist Islamist groups like Hamas in the same breath is grossly offensive.

Posted by: Jono at August 21, 2005 08:48 PM

Markus: Of course, the key for the Palestinians was to know when to stop fighting and bargain seriously. And I join everyone else in agreeing that December 2000 was that time.

Why not since the Oslo accords started in 1993 ? Why did the suicide bombings have to start in the '90s ? Why did Arafat choose to spend billions building a "police force" 4 times the allowed size under the Oslo accords, equip his policemen with semi-automatics and have many factions tied to terrorist groups ? Why did the religious incitement escalate since the Oslo accords ?

As much as Israel deserves to be criticised for its attitudes towards Palestinian statehood between 1967 and the first intifada, the Palestinian deserve heaps of criticism for their actions since Oslo.

Posted by: Jono at August 21, 2005 08:54 PM

Jono -- On the one hand you're right: the suicide bombings of the nineties were relatively few compared to after the second intifada, but they still helped to elect rejectionists like Netantyahu. On the other hand, what incentive would Israel have had to give up any land in final negotiation talks if Palestinians had been completely docile? What was really missing from Palestinians in the nineties, in my view, was not a complete abscence of violence, but an indication that violence would cease if their realistic demands were granted. There needed to be a sign from Arafat that he was sincere about selling to his people the idea that a future Palestinian state would not be an irredentist one, i.e., that the "right of return" would not be granted. There never was.

Posted by: Markus at August 21, 2005 09:22 PM

Observer: It is totally ludicrous to assert that there could have been one "long before that".

For 19 years - from 1948 to 1967 - the entire West Bank and Gaza were in Arab hands.

It's "totally ludicrous to assert" that the Arabs could have had a Palestinian state back then if they actually wanted one instead of holding onto fantasies of driving Israel into the sea?

Markus: Prior to the six-day war, of course, this was the case. Post-1967, both Labor and Likud, and the vast majority of the Israeli electorate, were completely opposed to the idea of ever giving away the West Bank and Gaza.

The '67 war happened because the Arab world had not given up their genodical goals - the issue of whether or not they had the ability to achieve their goals is a separate argument.

And while there were "Greater Israel" forces on the right of the political spectrum, holding onto the occupied territories and instituting the settlements was also a consequence of the across the board rejectionist politics from the Arab countries, namely the Kharthoum resolution.

Had the Arab countries given up that stance earlier, and had their been no Palestinian terrorism - whether Munich, Entebbe, etc...., things might have turned out much differently for them going forward.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 09:37 PM

And Markus, I just want to add this before I go to sleep.

The Israelis gave back the Sinai to Egypt.

They had proven, 12 years after the 6 Day War, that they would return territory in exchange for peace.

If the Palestinians had followed in Sadat's footsteps - which might possibly be considered "ludicrous" considering the mayhem they caused - not only in Israel, but in Jordan and Lebanon too - then again, things may have been very different for them.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 10:05 PM

Jono,
If you think that the israelis were prepared to allow a palestinian state in the early nineties, then you truly know nothing about the situation. Let me ask you just one question. When was it that the first Isreali prime minister stated that Israel would accept a Palestinian state, given the right circumstances, of course.

As for Sharon, with all due respect I dont care whether you or anyone else is offended, but I consider him at least as bad, if not worse than Arafat. Arafat had much innocent blood on his hands, but so does Sharon. Plus Sharon used the power of Israel to spearhead the stealing of Palestinian land and the brutal suppression of the people in the territories. I dont lay all the blame on him, nor on the israeli side, but he is/was a very bad character.

Posted by: Observer at August 21, 2005 10:18 PM

Michael --

Saddam DID win the First Gulf War. Decisively. You think in terms of western victory, for Saddam merely surviving a confrontation with Uncle Sam was victory, a decisive one, and perceived so throughout the Arab world. While regimes were much more hostile towards him in the Gulf, he proved stronger, and outlasted GHW Bush (Jordan remained compliant to Saddam's will). The conclusion drawn in the Arab world was Saddam's defeat of the US. For all it's power the US could not get rid of him. I agree this is not the Western perception of reality but it seems the Arab one and politically it was correct.

Hamas is perceived throughout the Palestinian areas and diaspora as having defeated the Israelis (as Hezbollah was viewed in driving them from Lebanon), the same is true in how it is perceived throughout the Arab world. Traditional Arab tactics of deception, ambush, retreat, and ambushing pursuing forces were employed (or seen as deployed) to break the will of the Israelis and achieve victory.
"Today Gaza, tomorrow the West Bank and Jerusalem" are the slogans of the day.

I agree this is not the reality, the Israelis withdrew from Lebanon and Gaza in their own interests. NRO's David Frum suggests that Sharon's objective is to both remove Israel from ruling over the Palestinians and to call Egypt and Jordan and Syria's bluff, since Hamasastan is basically inevitable, and Hamasastan will subvert (or try to) those neighboring states. Meanwhile withdrawal from parts of West Bank are also inevitable I think, as well as, (predictably after some massive Hamas-style atrocity) expulsion of Palestinians from parts of West Bank as well. Various rocket and artillery attacks by Hamas on Israel proper, broadly supported by Palestinian society and Abbas, is as predictable as the calendar. This will allow Sharon a free hand to respond on his own for "removal" of populations on both sides in the West Bank and "rationalize" lines of defense while removing Israel from ruling Palestinians there as well.

A Bosnian solution. Sharon will simply give the Palestinians a state, without Jerusalem and with substantial portions of the West Bank missing. Separation and a whacking great wall, etc. to keep the Palestinians out. Hostilities will remain for the foreseeable future, since Palestinians and the various armed gangs that rule them want a one-state solution: destruction of Israel and one Palestinian state supplanting it and ruling over the Israelis left. This has been the consistent goal of Palestinian society and has not changed since 1948. I don't believe it will ever change. Absent a totally destructive war that has the impact as WWII did on Germany. There are NO Michael Collins in Palestinian society.

Sharon and most Israelis understand this, they are simply trying to manage the conflict to keep their casualties down to the minimum. There seems no belief that peace or any negotiation with the Palestinians are worth anything given the commitment at the societal level to Israel's total destruction. That seems a rational reading of the situation to me. Terrorism seems to be viewed as Palestinian society's magic sword and they don't seem inclined to ever put it down.

Posted by: Jim Rockford at August 21, 2005 10:21 PM

SoCal,
Sorry, but you are still being ludicrous. Sinai was never seen to be part of greater Israel. Exchanging that land for peace with the largest Arab country, with the involvement and protective oversight by the US was a no-brainer.

And while there were "Greater Israel" forces on the right of the political spectrum, holding onto the occupied territories and instituting the settlements was also a consequence of the across the board rejectionist politics from the Arab countries

That is nonsense. The greater israel movement was based on a vision of expanding Israel to the full extent of the original mandate. It had religous and cultural inspiration, and would have proceeded irrespective of the attitudes of the neighboring Arab states.

You are fishing for some reason to hold onto some notion that Israel is pure, and the Arabs demons. If that is the only basis on which you can express your support for Israel, then that is pretty pathetic. It is perfectly possible, you know, to view the situation honestly, fess up to both the good and the bad on both sides, and still justify a personal preference for one side over the other, if you really need to do that.

On the basis of personal experiences I have far more ties of sympathy and affection for the Isreali side, though not exclusively. I am not going to blind myself though, nor hold back from stating when the Israelis do things that are just not right.

Posted by: Observer at August 21, 2005 10:27 PM

Markus;

You're last statement is disgusting in the extreme, inhuman and immoral. To assert that suicide violence was a legitimate tactic for Arafat EVEN AFTER Israel had committed itself to the Oslo Agreements makes you a terrorist, pure and simple. Of course, anybody can speculate what Israel would or wouldn't have done in the final status negotiations. The truth is, they adhered to the letter of the agreement even after buses were blowing up in Tel Aviv. This includes Netanyahu, who handed over Hebron, the holiest Jewish city, after Jerusalem.

I can't say exactly how many suicide bombings in Israel took place before the 2000, I don't have time to go running to news sources every time some idiot pulls something out of his ass. All I can say was, I was living here, and it was a wrenching national trauma. Such incidents were not "few" or "relatively few", by any human measurement. This is a favorite trick of the European media, by the way - to statistically minimize Israeli suffering by terrorists (emphasizing, for example, after each terrorist attack, that there are more Israelis killed in road accidents every year).

Your opinion is also idiotic, but why even go that far? Arafat couldn't possibly have gone public that he was using terror as a tactic.

To Markus, Observer, et al, after the signing of the Oslo Agreements in 1993, terror, in addition to being immoral, was also totally ineffective and counterproductive to Palestinian statehood. Rabin, who had broken people's bones in the First Intifada, had seen the light, and so had most Israelis. What terrorism did was drive the majority of pro-peace laborites (like me and everybody I know) into the arms of Ariel Sharon. (It certainly wasn't necessary to get Israel out of Gaza, Christ, do you think they would have signed Oslo if they weren't at least planning to give back Gaza?) Terrorism was a tragic and monumental mistake on the part of the Palestinians.

Posted by: MarkC at August 21, 2005 10:27 PM

Saddam DID win the First Gulf War. Decisively

Jim,
Just a stylistic hint here. When you start an obviously long post with a statement like this, that makes one think "this must be a moron posting", you tend to lose a good chunk of audience right away.

I must admit that I was suckered in to reading the entire first paragraph, thinking that maybe you were setting up for some clever point, in a clever way.

But then I bailed.

Perhaps you really think that the people in the middle east, who have been living and tracking a very real, very brutal, always shifting set of power relations for over three thousand years can be as stupid as you make them out. But no my friend, I think it is you.

Posted by: Observer at August 21, 2005 10:35 PM

I really wish I didn't check this thread before I actually went to sleep.

Observer,

Arrogance is really unbecoming. Thank god you're hear with all the answers to set everyone straight, though.

You are fishing for some reason to hold onto some notion that Israel is pure, and the Arabs demons.

Whatever.

Up the thread, I wrote: I am in favor of a two-state solution. I am not a fan of many in the settler movement

If I was holding "on to some notion that Israel is pure," wouldn't I be a fan of everyone in the settler movement and be against a Palestinian state?

It's fun to be completely right - as you clearly are - but it's easier if you make stuff up about other people.

If you don't think Palestinian terrorism has anything to do with the fact that they don't have a state - or that they couldn't have had one long ago if they and the Arab states wanted them to have one - when Gaza and the West Bank was in Arab hands from 1948 until 1967 - then that's your perogative, Mr. "nonsense/ludicrous."

And as for "Greater Israel," clearly you don't read enough of the Arab media because they all know that it's not the "full extent of the original mandate" (as you say) but the biblical mandate which is, of course, from the Nile to the Euphrates. (sarcasm)

The "defensible borders" argument has much more sway in Israeli politics and society than the "Greater Israel" argument. Lack of a peaceful country on the other side of the Green Line is not considered defensible by most Israelis. A security fence/wall can change that.

Now I wonder if I'll wake up to a post from you telling me about more of my "ludicrous" "nonsense" and how "stupid" I am and how much I think "Israel is pure" and "Arabs are demons."

Can't wait.

Posted by: SoCalJustice at August 21, 2005 10:50 PM

Everyone keeps saying the Nation moved this way, the Nation now feels more this way.

What if Zell Miller was right?

What if the NATION did not change at all, but that the Leadership of the Democratic Party DID?

What if they moved so far to the Left that large numbers of Democratics no longer felt like they belonged or were welcome in the same Party and just drifted into Idependent Status or the Republican Party without changing their basic Political Philosophy AT ALL.

In the otherwards the NATION did not move to the Right the Leadership of the Democratic Party moved so far to the Left that they Left large numbers of their Party Members behind,

Posted by: Dan Kauffman at August 21, 2005 11:48 PM

SoCal,
I apologize for oversimplifying your views.

I agree with the idea you expressed that "holding onto the territories" was a response to the neighboring Arabs attitudes. It is a position I support. I think the Israelis had every right to maintain military control of the territories until such time as they could be assured that there would be no threat to their existence coming from there. Even if that meant they were still controlling today.

But the settlements were a different matter. They were not a response to Arab attitudes, they were driven by a purely Israeli logic.

It is your views on that point which set me off, and made me see your words as an attempt to find some way to blame the Arabs for an Israeli policy that was clearly generated internally to Israel, was wrong, and has caused immense problems for a generation.

Posted by: Obesrver at August 22, 2005 08:31 AM

Dan,
Considering that the democratic candidate for president, in the last four elections, recieved 43, 49, 48 ,and 48 percent of the votes, your underlying assumption, that democratic voters and democratic leaders have disconnected, is unsupported by the facts.

Posted by: Observer at August 22, 2005 08:35 AM
And to think that we once thought highly of Mrs. Rice. Well, no longer...

Mrs. Rice? What, she married herself?

Posted by: Slartibartfast at August 22, 2005 09:31 AM

Ob, the Democrats couldn't win against an inarticulate President in the middle of a devisive war and a fragile economy even with the support of a heavily partisan media.

God forbid a positive environment for Republicans should materialize in the next three and a half years. We might get an idea what the trends are really like.

Posted by: Mark Poling at August 22, 2005 09:55 AM

Mark,
Perhaps you are being somewhat tongue in cheek, hard to tell through just words. But of course, running against any president in a time of war is an uphill struggle - natural inclination of the voters to rally round a leader in wartime - natural inclination of the voters to let the leader play out his hand (lets face it, most average voters really are not sure what to make of the Iraq strategy, they just hope it is a smart thing to do, cuz we are doing it). All that on top of the inherint difficulty of running against an incumbent in any case.

Given a 90% apporoval rating for his leadership in immediate post 9/11, the fact that Bush could only muster a three point win against a less than ideal candidate should be very troubling to Republicans. A plurality of Americans never wanted this guy in the first place. Without the war-leadership theme, its hard to see how he could have possibly won reelection. I see no generalized support for the broader Republican agenda in all this, as the SocSec debacle makes clear.

But of course, its all the medias fault. Even when you win!

Posted by: Observer at August 22, 2005 10:29 AM

From wayyyy upthread

Why don't we create a Jewish state in between Canada and the U.S.? Israel is tiny and if we split the difference it wouldn't require much land. Problem solved.

I'd suggest somewhere in the Detroit/Windsor - Sarnia/Port Huron corridor. I wouldn't miss it much, and I suspect Michiganders would feel the same.

Posted by: Dave Ruddell at August 22, 2005 10:29 AM

Why drag Canada into this? Give 'em half the state of Utah. Long tradition of religous based politics. A red state, so all the conservatives can put their money where their mouth is and show the Palestinians and the rest of the world how civilized people are perfectly willing to cede their land to the dispossessed of the world. They would be safe, and welcome, and its the end of the problem.

Posted by: at August 22, 2005 10:34 AM

Reagan didn't have too much trouble beating an incumbent. Clinton pulled it off too, albeit with a little help from the freakish Perot. So it can be done, and is regularly done when the public loses faith in the Administration. Last time was a rock-and-a-hard-place election, and the public decided the Democrats were more dense.

Gild the lilly as much as you like, Ob, but the Democrats should have walked all over Bush last time.

Posted by: Mark Poling at August 22, 2005 11:07 AM

the Democrats should have walked all over Bush last time

Well Mark, lets just consolidate our common ground here. I will admit that the democrats could have and should have done a better job of things in the last election. And I will accept your unspoken assumption that the way was clear for them to do that, given the fundamental disconnect between the American people and the policies of the Bush Administration.

Posted by: Observer at August 22, 2005 11:38 AM

Anon, Utah would be an good state to carve out a territory. I would even be happy to give up part of the state I live in as long as I never had to think or talk about this again.

Posted by: Mike#3or4 at August 22, 2005 11:55 AM
And I will accept your unspoken assumption that the way was clear for them to do that, given the fundamental disconnect between the American people and the policies of the Bush Administration.

I don't believe there is a "fundamental disconnect" between the Administration's policies and the American people. (Shame on you for putting words in someone else's mouth). But I will say the Bush Administration has done an awful job elucidating those policies. And that Kerry had a great opportunity to promote alternative policies.

He didn't, and he lost. Make of that what you will.

Posted by: Mark Poling at August 22, 2005 12:24 PM

You are not being clear Mark. If the Bush policies were sound, then how did Kerry have much of a chance? We dont fire presidents after one term unless there is a general sense that they are failing. Are the American people too stupid to understand how good they had it? Was the Bush administration was so terribly inarticulate that the American people would have been forced to conclude that things were bad when they really were good - since the people make their judgements based on political rhetoric rather than what they see before them in their own lives?

You seem to want to have it both ways. Bush was clearly the one with the better policies, more in touch with the people, but Kerry should have walked all over him.

Does not compute.

Posted by: Observer at August 22, 2005 12:45 PM

Ob, you must work in government. Only someone in the public sector could think that the better product always wins. Selling the product (in this case, public policies) is a critical function in the product's success. For whatever reason, the Administration did what I consider a piss-poor job of selling its policies.

On the other hand, Kerry had the problem of not having any product at all. His was the "pets.com" of Presidential candidacies. (Worse in a way, because pets.com at least had a likeable mascot). Last cycle the Democrats were all about "Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt" marketing. FUD actually works, but only if the consumer thinks the alternative product is the safer choice.

That's the weird dynamic within the Democratic Party right now. Centrist candidates can be FUDded out of the primaries (think Lieberman -- "he's too hawkish to win Iowa") while Lefties get FUDded come the General Election ("he's a Lefty -- he'll sell our soul to the United Nations.")

So this last time you folks ended up with Kerry, a man whose biggest selling point was he took some shrapnel in his 20s fighting a war he didn't believe in. Hopefully the Democrats will do better next time.

Posted by: Mark Poling at August 22, 2005 01:09 PM

Was this a thread about drifting right/ left, or about Sharon & Israel?

This is almost a silly post, Michael, because to be drifting, one needs a point of reference. Like a year 0: 1960, 1972, 1980, 2000?

Both left & right in the US have long supported a two-state Israel-Palestine solution, with the borders uncertain, status of Jerusalem unclear, and the expectation of no Palestinian "right of return" -- for those Arabs who fled in hopes their Arab fascist neighbors would wipe out the Jews.

Support for Israel is based on a free press, and free elections. Opposition to Palestinians is based on their lack of free press (or religion), lack of elections, lack of acceptance they wanted a war to kill Jews and lost.

The creation of Israel was not fully just; the wars by the Arabs ('48 & '56) were totally unjust. What is justice after prior injustice? Who owns the land?

What was the Left position at year 0? What is it now? and the Right?

(If it's so silly, why bother?) (I'm an addict.)

Both Left & Right now want a two state solution.

I suspect Sharon is about to use his retreat out of Gaza, "land for peace", to justify holding onto the West Bank: "land from terror".

Future International Law will be based on a future agreement between some elected Palestinian, like Abbas (but I think the next one is more likely), and the Israeli PM (I don't think it will be Sharon, but it will be with his fenced in borders).

Posted by: Tom Grey - Liberty Dad at August 22, 2005 01:54 PM

Now I get it Mark.

Bush had the good product.
But a bad marketing strategy.
And so they were primed to lose, since marketing is key.

Dems had a potentially good marketing strategy, but no good product alternative.
And so they lost, because product quality is key.

Next time you need to indulge in a little late afternoon mindless Dem bashing, I'll just steer clear, I think.

Posted by: Observer at August 22, 2005 02:06 PM

Didn't think it was mindless at all, Ob. Point out the flaws in my argument, if you can. Or at least drop the ad hom stuff; as I noted earlier, that probably does more harm than good to your cause.

Posted by: Mark Poling at August 22, 2005 03:23 PM

Mark Poing -- In case someone's still reading this: you have it backwards, I think.

Kerry and the Dems had decent, popular POLICY PRESCRIPTIONS coming out the wazoo. Reams and reams of the stuff. Their problem was that they couldn't get the press and the electorate to pay attention to them. To busy NOT responding to the Swift Boats, and staging windsurfing photo-ops. That's called bad marketing.

Meanwhile, Bush policies are extremely unpopular, due to the shitstorms they create everywhere between here and Baghdad. Nevertheless, President Bush is the MAN WHO WILL PROTECT YOU, the man YOU WOULD PREFER TO BABYSIT YOUR KIDS, the man YOU WOULD RATHER HAVE A BEER WITH. That's good marketing.

In any case, said shitstorms will continue, and eventually Dems will learn to market themselves.

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Posted by: canadian medications at September 24, 2007 09:30 AM
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