June 22, 2005

Poll Results

Here are the results of my two wildly unscientific polls where I asked if you could vote in the Democratic and Republican primaries for 2008 today, who would you vote for?

Dem Poll.JPG

GOP Poll.JPG

I did this out of simple curiosity and it would be a mistake to draw any firm conclusions from the results. The Democratic poll responses don’t surprise me at all. Barack Obama did well because he’s popular and he’s a good guy. Nancy Pelosi didn’t do well at all, but that’s mostly because this blog isn’t exactly a magnet for her fan club. Evan Bayh beat the others because he's a moderate - and moderates are the audience I try to write for here in this space.

I will say, though, that it would be a mistake to dismiss Condoleeza Rice as unable to win a primary. The conservatives who read this blog are surely more moderate than conservatives at large, but still, she is only two percentage points away from winning an absolute majority here. Right-wing Republicans very well may sink her in a real live actual primary - just as the Democrats would probably nix Evan Bayh - but you never know. She did do a lot better than Bayh did, for whatever that's worth.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at June 22, 2005 03:30 PM
Comments

and Condi's cuter than Evan and Barack put together!

Posted by: Jase at June 22, 2005 04:11 PM

neocons win again.

Posted by: spaniard at June 22, 2005 04:18 PM

Just out of curiosity, why would R.W. republicans want to sink Condi? I thought she was their poster child.

Posted by: joefrommass at June 22, 2005 04:37 PM

Were people's votes predicated on who would make the best President if elected, or on who would have a better chance of being elected?

And I wonder what the results would be like if you asked people to only vote in one of the "primaries." I am guessing that the moderates got a disproportionately higher percentage here, because of votes from "across the aisle."

Posted by: exhelodrvr at June 22, 2005 04:38 PM

I suspect Condi gets so many votes because of the perceived inevitability of Hillary's nomination. I'm guessing Condi is viewed as the silver bullet in a general election.

Posted by: spc67 at June 22, 2005 04:56 PM

Joefrommass: Just out of curiosity, why would R.W. republicans want to sink Condi? I thought she was their poster child.

Dude, no way. The Paleoright and the Christian Right have about as much time for her as they do for Arnold Schwartznegger. She's black, she's a woman, she's an intellectual, she's a social liberal, she's single, she's not detectably religious at all, etc. She's a certain kind of right-winger's worst nightmare. (Trent Lott, James Dobson, and Pat Buchanan for starters. Henry Kissinger and Brett Scowcroft probably can't stand her either, for different reasons.)

Moderates and formerly liberal neocons like her, though. If you haven't yet figured out that neocons are the left-wing of the Republican Party, not the right wing, well, I don't know what to tell ya.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at June 22, 2005 04:59 PM

I don't know about that.
I'm pretty far right, definitely Christian Right, and more than thrilled with Condi Rice. I'm not sure why you still hold with that non-intellectual , racist, etc carnard about us, but you've got to get out more. New Criterion, First Things -- what is your standard of measure for an intellectual, after all? I'm pretty sure my adult Sunday School class could meet it.
Never mind, though. I'm a NH Republican, and I'd sure vote for her. Heck, I may work for her in the primary.

Posted by: Assistant Village Idiot at June 22, 2005 05:13 PM

I think the Republican nominee will be a conservative governor, as usual. Guliani is attractive, but Govs or former Govs, like Allen, Romney, etc are more typical for Reps. However, it would be foolhardy for the nominee to NOT choose Sec State Rice as VP. Instant charisma, FP experience, and an excellent addition to the ticket in general. I'd bet on that.

Posted by: Paul at June 22, 2005 05:14 PM

There isn't a name on either list that turns me on. Getting so you can't tell who won the last election.

Posted by: freddy at June 22, 2005 05:15 PM

This is the first time I have read a comment by a conservative that revealed an anti-Christian ideology as the logical base for Condi Rice supporters.

Posted by: mikem at June 22, 2005 05:20 PM

"she's not detectably religious at all:" Could've fooled me and her parents, you know her father the pastor, and I guess all that praying and church going she does on Sundays is what? Oh she would just be terrible during an election, wouldn't know what to do in a church, an embarrassment to all. I doubt she's even read that book, what do they call it, oh yeah The Book (to translate).

"she's a social liberal:" Maybe we don't travel in the same circles but I don't meet too many social liberals who are absolutists on the Second Amendment. School choice? For it. Tax cuts? She'll be for them. Abortion? She'll be against Roe v Wade while non-commital about her personal feelings, leave it to the states. It's all about the judges. Good enough for me. Other issues as well are finessable.

Being a part of the Christian Right I think Mr. Totten is listening to the echochamber a bit much. Black, a woman, doesn't bother the people I'm around, in fact all of that is a plus. A single woman President the best route. You see that First Guy thing is a bit bothersome, especially if his name is Bubba. Now of course their are some paleo folk who aren't very Christian in my view of things, but who really cares what Buchanan and his folk think. As for people like Lott and Dobson they'll come to the party with bells on, where else are they going to go? Hillary? McCain? In fact they'll probably enjoy themselves in the end. The Dems can't lose anymore of the Black vote in places like Maryland and Pennsylvania and Michigan and win. Rice will take a lot of that vote away. Why do you think Mehlmann is spending all his time where he does? Can we say Sen. Steele? Ultimately Rice in a landslide. Another big part of Bush's legacy. You really must get on Rove's mailing list Totten, the world is passing you by.

Posted by: bob at June 22, 2005 05:23 PM

Yes, Governors, for obvious reasons, have an advantage. That said, I'm a deep Red, white male, pro-life traditional Catholic voter in a dark Blue state, AND I'd vote for Condi in a heart beat, top or bottom of the ticket - and I know others like me who would too. She's got balls, and I mean that in the best way.

But will she run?

Posted by: Tim at June 22, 2005 05:26 PM

"Henry Kissinger and Brett Scowcroft probably can't stand her either, for different reasons."

Not so. Condi is Scowcroft's protege. It was Scowcroft who "discovered" Asst Prof Rice at a meeting at Stanford in 1989 and asked her to join the Bush 41 administration.

Condi is currently in the best possible political position imaginable: she has credibility with hawks and credibility with realists, and those who hate her most-- antiwar liberals-- are also the ones most likely to damn themselves with frothing, racist attacks her (like the notorious Auth cartoon featuring her as the Gone With the Wind nanny who "don't know nuthin' bout no centrifuges").

Condi's a dream candidate for 1988. Make it happen.

Posted by: thibaud at June 22, 2005 05:26 PM

Condi's main appeal to me is the great pleasure I would derive night after night listening to the likes of Donna Brazile explain why she, Condi, is neither Black nor a woman!

Posted by: Patrick Dennis at June 22, 2005 05:28 PM

Condi Rice, the protector of communist chinese spies and ass-kisser of the communist chinese goverment for prez? Why not. Can't be any worse than the last two. They were / are the same way.

Posted by: Robert at June 22, 2005 05:30 PM

Add Commentary to the First Things & New Criterion readers. Did I miss something - are the Paleo-cons racists? Are they misogynists? Are they know-nothings? I'll admit, she's probably a nightmare choice in Buchanan's world - since she is clearly not an isolationist, build up the barricades and stay at home conservative. But I can't imagine why anyone in the party cares a whole hell of a lot about meeting Buchanan's criteria. Trent Lott has been marginalized. Dobson, well, I don't know what he believes. Sure she takes a different approach than a Colin Powell/Scowcroft/Kissinger Republican; would that mean they'd vote against her? So she's not a crazy isolationist and she's not a "realist" - isn't that precisely why so many find her attractive?

Posted by: Ginny at June 22, 2005 05:32 PM

Conde-e-e-e-e!

Posted by: Cover Me, Porkins at June 22, 2005 05:37 PM

Posted by Patrick Dennis at June 22, 2005 05:28 PM
"Condi's main appeal to me is the great pleasure I would derive night after night listening to the likes of Donna Brazile explain why she, Condi, is neither Black nor a woman!"

Wow, another four years of leftist rage and insanity. Sign me up! Go Condi! :)

Posted by: Thomas at June 22, 2005 05:41 PM

I'd still like to hear from our host why he didn't include Allen and Romney among the Republican choices. They certainly seem to be garnering a lot of attention among the conservative press.

I agree with a lot of the posters that Condi is not really a hard sell to the religious/socially conservative right, probably easier than selling a Mormon (Romney) in a lot of respects. Yes, there are racists among the religious right and paleocons but those types are certainly not going to vote for Hilary or Obama. Condi's chances probably correlate 100% with Iraq. If America feels good about how the war on terror is going Condi can reap the benefits, but if the war is not seen as going well Condi can forget it.

Posted by: vanya at June 22, 2005 05:48 PM

With 4 million NRA members in her corner, I'd say she won't have much trouble in the primaries, if she decides to run. It's very seldom we see a Republican nominee we could be this enthusiastic about.

Posted by: Brett Bellmore at June 22, 2005 05:59 PM

Condi's not ready for President, because she has never governed anything.

But I'm hoping for a Ridge/Rice Republican ticket in 2008.

Check out Ridge's bio, he's done everything but cure cancer, AND he has governed:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Ridge

I think these two are not only an unbeatable ticket, but a substantial ticket that would serve the nation extremely well.

Posted by: Observer at June 22, 2005 06:02 PM

I think U R wrong about Rice!! I consider myself a Conservative, Just to the right of "Atilla the Hun," from all I've seen of her I would have no problem voting for her!!

Now I must admit I am in the Dark about her Social postitions!! Care to Elaborate??

Posted by: mike at June 22, 2005 06:02 PM

Heck, go to Free Republic and search "condi"; if they like Rice (and they do) then any right-winger who's against her must be far to the right indeed.

Posted by: PersonFromPorlock at June 22, 2005 06:04 PM

Hey, some of the FAAAR right are just as offensive to me as The Wacko Left!!

I believe in God, but do not attend church, not bragging just fact, BUT, when The FAAAR right tries to Legislate morality, that's where I Leave!!

Posted by: mike at June 22, 2005 06:07 PM

Rice/Allen; Allen/Rice.

Posted by: Bob at June 22, 2005 06:07 PM

If Condi runs, she will win by the biggest landslide in our history.

Posted by: Xixi at June 22, 2005 06:10 PM

>The Paleoright and the Christian Right have about as much time for her as they do for Arnold Schwartznegger. She's black, she's a woman, she's an intellectual, she's a social liberal, she's single, she's not detectably religious at all, etc.

?? I am interested in where you get that impression, Michael. While I am a libertarian, I end up in meetings whith a lot of traditional conservatives, and they seem to love her. So, setting aside your thoughts about conservatives and her being black, a woman and intellectual, where do you get that she is socially liberal and non-religous? I don't know all her positions, but I know she's anti-affirmative action, anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage (that's some red meat conservatism). And I thought she was known for being a very religous born again Christian (part of the close friendship with George thing). Did I miss something?

Posted by: Jason Ramsey at June 22, 2005 06:12 PM

Michael: I don't know where I fall on the neo-con scale, probably pretty far up it, but I'd vote for Condi in a heartbeat.

Bob: Yes, I think Allen/Rice makes the most sense at this moment, but it's way too early to be doing this kind of conjecture.

Posted by: Mark at June 22, 2005 06:13 PM

Condi! Condi! Condi! Condi! Condi! Condi! Condi!

Living embodiment of the american dream.
Stern defender of individual rights (you can't be pro second amendment and not be).
A True Realist.
Instant Charisma!
A People Person.
Sticks by her guns.
Shoots Straight.
Sex Appeal (I know, not normally seen as a good thing but it has to stand for something)!

If she runs, they will vote! I'd think she's a shoo-in for the primaries and the general election.

We need a 'draft Condi' movement. A Ridge/Rice ticket sounds fine, but a Rice/Ridge ticket sounds better to me.

Posted by: Chaz706 at June 22, 2005 06:15 PM

And now, how about a realistic poll, Michael? You leave off likely Demo candidates like Joe Biden (the only announced, so far), Mark Warner, Tom Vilsack and John Kerry...not to mention Wes Clark and Al Gore. Bayh has no name recognition outside the midwest and has no chance, Obama ain't running (except for VP) and neither is Pelosi. So what was your point? To boost Bayh's standing as the alternative to Hillary? On the R side, Condi ain't gonna run either (she's been pretty definitive about this) so your poll skews away from McCain and Giuliani, when it would have been most interesting to see how "her" votes would have gone. As for me, as of today, I'd cast a write-in on your poll for Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin...

Posted by: activist kaza at June 22, 2005 06:16 PM

Mark,

I'm happy you agree. And very tricky, agreeing (and thus making a conjecture of your own) and then condemning me for having conjectured. It is never too early for a conjecture or a drink, I say. But both in small amounts and preferably amongst friends.

I do like the Allen/Rice, Rice/Allen ticket. Pretty much sews up the important NFL players and management block. Plus the ticket covers a lot of ground, you get a Senator/Governor/NSC chief/Sec of State/Provost/Pianist/White/Black/Woman/Man/double Southerner (w/a touch of California); a wide, wide swath of experience and gender/race/geographic blah blah blah like never before.

Posted by: bob at June 22, 2005 06:32 PM

I consider myself right-wise between Jerry Pournelle on my right (paleo-con) and Bob Dole (old-con) to my left.

I'd vote for Condi in a heartbeat.

Posted by: Pouncer at June 22, 2005 06:38 PM

Activist Kaza: So what was your point? To boost Bayh's standing as the alternative to Hillary?

No, I didn't have any point. I just picked five prominent Democrats to see who is more liked around here. I wasn't trying to boost Evan Bayh. I picked Barack Obama and I vastly prefer him to Evan Bayh.

Bob: Being a part of the Christian Right I think Mr. Totten is listening to the echochamber a bit much. Black, a woman, doesn't bother the people I'm around, in fact all of that is a plus.

Okay, you would know better than I do. But I'm quite sure she bothers the Trent Lott and Bob Jones people. If that demographic isn't significant, then why did George W campaign at Bob Jones University? And why did John McCain admit to being a coward for refusing to slam him for that? McCain was afraid of offending somebody, and it wasn't me.

I hope I'm wrong and that Condi wins the nomination. Many people obviously like her a lot, and maybe she will.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at June 22, 2005 06:39 PM

Just out of curiosity, why would R.W. republicans want to sink Condi? I thought she was their poster child.

She is. Totten's view-- that rightwingers are racist-- is a holdover from his Lib days. But this isn't your daddy's GOP. I run with rightwingers and evangelicals, and a statement like that would seem curious to them too.

Posted by: spaniard at June 22, 2005 06:40 PM

Bob: I assure you that my intent was not to condemn you for conjecture, my thought on it was far wider than to be aimed at you and was not really so strong as to be a condemnation (if it were I'd not have participated at all!).

That said, the rule is no drinks before noon, which would coincide on the presidential election conjecture scale to the day after election day 2006 :-)

Posted by: Mark at June 22, 2005 06:40 PM

Michael,

if Condi gets any resistance on the Right, it won't be because of her sex nor race. It will be because she isn't particularly hardcore about abortion. But I don't think that would keep her from getting the nomination.

Posted by: spaniard at June 22, 2005 06:47 PM

I too am as far right as you can get and Condi is my canidate! I don't understand how you think she can't get the conservative vote. As someone else said go to Freerepublic.com and search for Condi and you will see how much she is liked.

Posted by: Jim Bergin at June 22, 2005 06:55 PM

pretty much every poll that includes condi as a candidate has her beating the ever living snot out of anything put up against her, except for when patrick ruffini checked the conservatives voting on her vs. allen, and they were essentially neck and neck given his polling size.

the only serious threats to her from the conservative side (except for allen) are completely impossible: Cheney and Rumsfeld. Not to mention that both of those guys have some really serious negatives and nowhere near as much pickup potential as the Dr. She has a bit of an issue wrt abortion (at least from the right-to-lifers, not me), but apart from that she's about as red meat as they come. I can only think of four people that have a real problem with her: Lott, Buchanan, Duke, and Derbyshire. But screw those racist bastards, they're of less than no importance, since it seems that Duke is the most respectable of the lot, which is pretty pathetic since he's ye old klucker that inspired the "vote for the crook, it's important!" slogan.

The best part about a condi presidency is the complete apoplexy it would cause the governments of Saudi Arabia, North Korea, Iran, Egypt, Syria, Lybia, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Cuba... That and the insanity of watching people like Brazile explain how she's not black and not a woman.

Posted by: hey at June 22, 2005 07:12 PM

Mark,

I have never felt less condemned. Should've typed in one of those little smiley faces I guess. Pleasure talking with you.

Michael Totten,

Condi opens up wide vistas of new voters for the Republican Party without losing much in return. She's a nail in the coffin of the Democrats dominance of the African American vote. Your point about Bob Jones is well taken. And George W. Bush will go there again, or his wife, or brother Jeb to campaign for Condi. Or Lott, you'll see. However, you mistake going somewhere for fully supporting the views of those you are visiting. As many of your commentators have suggested, you're putting conservatives and fundamentalists in a very, very small box. A box that I can't recognize at all. And I am thankful to Reagan and the Bushes for helping make that so. I remember us being thought of as Jew haters a few decades ago. Thankfully that meme too has fallen by the wayside. I don't hear that talk much anymore, and for good reason. Going to places like Bob Jones and what happened there is a bit more nuanced than your thinking allows, and in fact Bush has been pulling places like that a lot more his way than the other way around. To wit, look who is the Secretary of State. I sincerely believe, though I admit Rove has not sent me the memo, that Condi in '08 is a major piece of the Bush legacy and the Republican Party's strategy for long term dominance that Rove is building. Karen Hughes and Cheney's daughter are over at State for more than the publicly stated reasons. As a conservative and a fundamentalist, and more importantly as an American, given where we are and how far we have come, Condi would not only be an ideal candidate for me, but for many of my friends as well. And to the Left, which on the whole isn't as openminded as you Michael, I say keep up the stereotypes, for this is going to hit you'all like a ton of bricks.

Some of this wild conjecture I know, but as you know, I've got a lot of faith.

Posted by: Bob at June 22, 2005 07:18 PM

p.s. I hope no one misinterprets that "more importantly" I wrote. That would be a mistake. A misunderstanding of how I value my faith as opposed to all the rest. "Speaking only with regards to what relates to politics, more importantly...." A little better.

Posted by: bob at June 22, 2005 07:27 PM

1. Self-selecting internet polls are meaningless when it comes to predicting what might happen in the real world. And "everyone I know would vote for candidate X" anecdotes don't change that fact.

2. People who read and write blogs are a tiny, tiny minority of the electorate. So what they think, or who they favor may or may not have any basis in reality.

3. While it would be fascinating to see Condi as a presidential candidate, I don't think there's any way she's going to make it through the primary. Not because she's black, not because she's a woman, but because she's single. When's the last time we elected a single person as president?

Posted by: Dave at June 22, 2005 07:30 PM

Condi is leading in your poll because she is the only one of the potentials who could be considered for the title of "Heir Apparent to the Bush Foreign Policy". When the other nominees get more serious they'll make a play for that title and then they'll get a big boost. If the title hasn't become ignomious by then. I hope it doesn't. In the end though it will be Sam Brownback who secures the nomination. Just watch.

Posted by: The Apologist at June 22, 2005 07:31 PM

Michael,

What's so interesting is the way your poll mirrors the results of national, credible, scientific polls on the Republican side. Basically, Rudy and McCain always end up in double digits, with the former leading the latter, and Condi, when you introduce her into the mix, sucks up a large plurality. Take her out and most of that 49 percent would be undecided, while some would split between the many conservative candidates that are likely to run, such as Allen and Romney.

The thing is, nomination contests are narrowed down to at most three candidates after New Hampshire. With Rudy and McCain, who are both likely to run, sucking up nearly half of GOP voters, the half dozen conservatives who divide the other half of primary voters may not make it past the Granite State. That would leave South Carolina and the rest of the red state GOP primary voters to choose between McCain, a pro-life conservative whom they don't trust, and Rudy, a pro-choice Manhattanite whom they adore. I would imagine they'd go with the latter.

But Condi attracts support from all factions of the GOP. Her base with the Bush establishment and her terror-warrior status offset any dissension from orthodoxy on domestic issues, like abortion.

Bottom line: if Condi runs, she's the nominee.

If Condi doesn't run and Rudy does, he's the nominee.

If McCain runs, Rudy's even more likely to be the nominee as he'll muscle out many of the lesser-known conservatives in the early primaries and force southern conservatives to vote Rudy to avoid the twin threats of McCain and Hillary.

Posted by: Dave at June 22, 2005 07:36 PM

the Christian Right have about as much time for [Condi] as they do for Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Don't be so sure. I've heard them speak quite favorably of her.

She's a certain kind of right-winger's worst nightmare.

You mean like KKK recruiter Robert Byrd? Oh, wait, he's a Democrat.

Racism is pretty much dead in the GOP, at least the prejudicial pre-1960s kind. Some people still have this cockeyed view of the South as a place that's going to collectively say "My gosh! A colored woman for President! Good Lord, what's the world come to?" The modern Republican South votes on values and foreign policy. Condi's a Southern girl herself, and I think that counts for more than the color of her skin with them.

Posted by: TallDave at June 22, 2005 07:36 PM

Dave,

And this will be my last post here. Enjoyed myself.

When was the last time we elected a woman? A single woman is the best way to go, if it is to be a woman. In my opinion.

Would you rather have Condi in the White House playing Mozart for a few good friends before going to bed or Bubba and Hillary throwing things at each other.

Brownback I also like a lot, if anyone cares.

Posted by: at June 22, 2005 07:36 PM

Oh, and Condi is very pro-2nd Amendment. She likes to tell a story about her father defending himself from racists when she was very young.

Posted by: TallDave at June 22, 2005 07:39 PM

Dave's last point, I think, is worth considering. I had a black female client recently tell me that she thought Condi needed "to get a life." Isn't that code for "why don't dat bitch got no man?"?

Posted by: chris in st. lou' at June 22, 2005 07:43 PM

For the record, I still think it will be Guiliani/Rice. Rudy's the hero of 9/11 and Condi is, well, Condi.

Posted by: TallDave at June 22, 2005 07:43 PM

Michael -

As a Southern Republican White Male Evangelical who takes his faith very seriously, let me say

"Condi is Cool!"

The only things that concern me is that she might not be quite as pro-life as I want, and she has never held elected office before. And my second concern is greater than my first.

Other than that, I relish the possibility of her running in '08. Just think of what that would do to the old stereotypes of Republicans and Christians being racist and sexist! How tired I am of those sterotypes! I know many evangelical Christians, and none of them are Neanderthals.

Go Condi!

Go Condi!

Posted by: KSM at June 22, 2005 07:46 PM

"Would you rather have Condi in the White House playing Mozart for a few good friends before going to bed or Bubba and Hillary throwing things at each other."

You miss my point; republican primary voters aren't going to be choosing between Condi or "Bill and Hil". They are going to be choosing between Condi and a bunch of married Republicans. And I don't see that working in Condi's favor.

Posted by: Dave at June 22, 2005 07:49 PM

If anyone's interested, here's the semi-serious Draft Condi site.

1. She actually knows what she is doing, a rare attribute in a candidate these days. A person doesn't get to be Provost of Stanford University by goofing off. Rather than spending her adult life running for office, she's actually ... well, gone out and worked hard. To be a "professional politician" has never been a mark of competence, energy, or skill.

2. She'd flatten the two remaining Democratic strongholds: women and African-American voters. In fact, it might just end the Democratic Party as an institution, leaving it to join the Whigs and the Federalists as subjects for American History 101. (Hit them while they're still trying to figure out how, with the backing of the mass media, celebrities, and Soros' millions, they still couldn't beat the fellow they called a smirking chimp).

3. We'd have the first woman President (and her name wouldn't be Hillary),

4. and the first African-American President,

5. and the first President who has proclaimed herself "a Second Amendment absolutist," repudiating everything including registration. Her father didn't hunt ducks -- he hunted Klansmen. (No proof that he got one, but Kerry never proved he got that duck, either).

6. She would also be the first unmarried President in over a century. All the supermarket mags could speculate as to whom she's dating now. (Okay, they could do it with Bill Clinton, too, but this would have a lot more decorum). Stolen glances at Prince Charles? Why did she appoint a 27 year old as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff? Paparazzi could pursue her as she sneaked away with a Marine guard. The Secret Service could detain the paparazi and "accidentally" drop them off the 14th Street Bridge. This gets better by the minute.

It goes on.

Posted by: TallDave at June 22, 2005 07:52 PM

Dave--

I'm pretty sure it was Grover Cleveland. He admitted fathering a bastard child. Opponents taunted him with "Ma, ma where's my pa?"/"Gone to the White House, Ha Ha Ha!"

IIRC, he got married once in office.

That is, of course, if you don't count Bill Clinton...;-)

Posted by: Fresh Air at June 22, 2005 07:53 PM

While I'm so far to the right Attila the Hun looks like he's sailing off into the sunset, I'd vote for Guiliani first, and then Condi.

Why?

Because they demonstrate conviction, fortitude, and reasoned judgment.

I am not so worried by the label. I want someone as president who can clearly see the real issues.

Michael, I'm surprised at your judgment against conservatives. It's not up to your usual standards of thoughtful insights.

Posted by: steve matlock at June 22, 2005 07:54 PM

Dave,

I did miss your point. Which is/was a good one. You'd have to surround her with lots of people and their families I guess. The Bushes and Cheneys to begin with. Would it be enough? But I still think the whole First Guy thing is also bothersome to some.

I also lied about it being my last post. But I wanted to apology to Dave.

Posted by: bob at June 22, 2005 08:00 PM

Dave: I love Laura, the twins (especially the twins, because they reflected "normal" American teens with their college hijinks), Barney, and Miss Beasley (I think it is), but that's all, when you get right down to it, fluff and circumstance.

Whether the Mr./Mrs. President has a family in residence has no bearing on the future of the USA. The fact that Condi, or anyone else, is single has zero effect on the parameters considered in my decision making.

Posted by: Mark at June 22, 2005 08:26 PM

Why did she appoint a 27 year old as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?

LOL! My dogs came running when I read that. Thanks Dave.

Posted by: spc67 at June 22, 2005 08:34 PM

I wonder what Condi would wear to the debates?

My worst nightmare is McCain vs. Hillary. Would conservatives even show up at the polls?

Posted by: Alan K. Henderson at June 22, 2005 09:04 PM

Conservatives soft on Condi? Please.

She doesn't compromise with terrorists or their sponsors.

She doesn't care whether or not the corrupt U.N. cronies and Eurocrats "like us" or not.

She's a Second Amendment absolutist.

She projects more power than an aircraft carrier.

Conservatives love Condi like they loved Margaret Thatcher. Does anyone even remember what the Iron Lady's position on abortion was?

Posted by: Condi Neocon at June 22, 2005 09:22 PM

Just adding to the general landslide here:

I like talking politics, while not particularly liking either party. My circle of acquaintances is dominated by Texas Republicans and by white conservative Christians (I'm one of the latter in religion but not in politics, where I support legalization of recreational drug use and prostitution, and I've never registered as a Republican in my life).

I haven't heard a single one of my conservative friends -- not ONE -- have anything but raves for Condi; the only reason any Republican I know isn't desperate to run her in '08 is that they're afraid her inexperience in campaigning would cause her to make some horrific political gaffe that would let Hillary sneak in. But there's nobody -- NOBODY -- they'd rather have actually running the country, and as far as I can tell that's not just the majority opinion among my friends, it's the dominant opinion.

Michael, I mean, I don't mean to be rude, but do you actually KNOW any Republicans?

"She's black." I don't know a single Republican who could care less, except insofar as it makes her much more electable and is therefore seen as a huge plus. Republicans moved past thinking in racial terms (except tactically) a generation ago. It's one of the things I find most attractive in them (MLK was one of my biggest heroes as a young man, and there's no doubt which of the two parties has the more color-blind rank-and-file).

"She's a woman." So who gives a crap, except that, again, it makes it easier to raid the preserves of the gender-prejudiced Democratic female vote? No Republicans I know, including my own all-women-should-submit-to-their-husbands mother.

"She's an intellectual." Completely needlessly insulting; you so need to get past the redneck stereotype, Michael.

"She's a social liberal." Who happens to be ferociously opposed to gun control of any kind.

"She's single." And who gives a crap as long as she isn't out to destroy the traditional American family? Certainly no Republicans I know.

"She's not detectably religious at all." I wouldn't know, myself.

"She's a certain kind of right-winger's worst nightmare." Ah, THERE'S the rub. Apparently you are operating under the impression that the Republican Party is composed primarily of David Duke and Patrick Buchanan clones.

As an earlier poster said, you need to get out more. I'm not Republican enough to be offended...but wow, at least I actually KNOW some Republicans. They really could care less whether a person is married, single, male, female, black, white, or purple. They want to know: will this person do a good job in defending us against our enemies (including the perceived enemies who are perceived as attacking traditional Christianity) and managing the economy?

If you want to find people who think race and gender should be taken into account in deciding for whom to cast your ballot, I'd suggest your local Democratic Party office. 'Cause the Republicans I know couldn't care less. And while I have my major beefs with the Republican Party (what IS their hangup with medical marijuana, and who thought No Child Left Behind was a good idea, and can't they read the part of the Bible that says, "My kingdom is not of this world," and what, they have nothing better to do right now than outlaw flag burning???), on this particular issue it's practically impossible to overstate how much more palatable I find the Republicans' attitude than the Democrats'.

Condi's inexperience is the only thing keeping the nomination from being hers for the claiming. Period.

Posted by: Ken Pierce at June 22, 2005 09:27 PM

Well as a far right Texan gun nut Christian and despite the fact Condi has never ran for an office, I would be willing to gamble on her because she is increadibly smart in a wide range of fields. She does have administrative experience and I've seen her keep her cool underpressure. She has "get to the goal" abilities, that is while she has a wide range of intersets she is not a dillitante. She can keep her focus on a goal or several at once and plough to them.

Posted by: toad at June 22, 2005 09:31 PM

I think the Republican
one mirrors reality
a little more than the
Democrat one. Obama is
not yet ready for
prime time. Hillary is
by far and away going
to get the nomination,
and easily, unless
something crazy happens
between now and then.

Meanwhile, I could totally
see Condi Rice getting it.
And Frist's meager support
is about right amongst
GOP primary voters.

Posted by: Will Franklin at June 22, 2005 09:36 PM

Condi has publically stated that she has no interest in running for public office; that she likes and is comfortable with what she does, and for some strange reason I actually believe her.

Condi is a foreign policy guru and a wonky one at that. Just the few self-conscious uncomfortable speeches she made on the campaign trail for Bush tells me she isn't suited for campaigning. I can't imagine her laying out a domestic policy agenda; probably because she can't imagine herself doing it either.

Posted by: Dustin Ridgeway at June 22, 2005 10:14 PM

Quite simply, if Condi runs and doesn't make any major gaffes (either as a candidate or as SecState), she will be the nominee. If she doesn't run, there haven't been a foreign policy disasters under her watch, and the nominee is pro-life (which is to say anyone else even remotely plausible but Rudy), she will be the first person asked to run for VP.

Posted by: Dave at June 22, 2005 10:15 PM

Being a grassroots-level Republican organizer (volunteer, though it feels like full time near elections), I can say with some confidence that the Republican grassroots volunteers I work with love Condi. They would vote for her with little problem.

But, everyone is justifiably afraid she has never run for office before. Eisenhower is the only recent example I am aware of where a President previously had not held elective office. That's her flaw, and its not as small as you might think. Campaigning isn't just going out and giving speeches - that I think we can all confidently say Condi can do. It's also fundraising, and its organizing a campaign, and its managing disparate elements of that campaign. We don't know that she will be able manage a campaign and fundraise at the level she will need to, and that makes her a tough choice.

She really needs to be VP, learn how a campaign works firsthand, and run for President later, whether that ticket wins or loses.

Posted by: Sisyphus at June 22, 2005 10:27 PM

Condi is SMART.

All other trappings are superfluous.

Posted by: Yankette at June 22, 2005 11:18 PM

I thought Ms. Rice would have a problem with the right because she is not Pro-Life. I suspect that everyone in the comment section is pro-life but worried about the government running their lives. Could she pass the primary? (And fuck the primary anyway, why should a voter in N.H. or S.C. count more than me.) By the way from what I know (which isn't much) she is popular in the Middle East because she doesn't bullshit.

Posted by: Mike#3or4 at June 22, 2005 11:33 PM

Abortion isn't even an issue.

Seriously.

Abortion is in the hands of the judges. Condi likes strict constructionist constitutionalists. There is no mention of abortion in the constitution. Ergo, President Rice would appoint judges who would overturn Roe v. Wade (if Bush doesn't accomplish that before 2008).

Disclosure: I am an angry white male Christian extreme right winger. I would lay my life down for President Condoleeza Rice.

But I am also a realist. She has flat out ruled out running. That doesn't mean she won't agree to be VP. And VP Rice sounds even better to me, because she is young enough now to follow that up with President Rice 8 years later. Condi will be 54 in 2008. That means 62 in 2016.

Allen-Rice 2008
Rice-Jeb 2016
Jeb-?? 2024

by 2036, Jeb's son P. will be ready for the VP slot. Then he will be President in 2040. He'll be about 60 by then.

The Bush family will accomplish what the Kennedy's tried and failed--a true political dynasty. And Condi is the key to it all. She needs to be on the ticket in 2008; that will kill Hillary. And then she needs to have Jeb under her. But we can't have Jeb on the ticket in 2008, because there needs to be that gap, so that the anti-Bush hatred can dissipate.

Y'all just watch.

As for McCain: he will never win a single primary, at least not as a Republican. He'd be better off switching parties. Then he might beat Hillary for the primary, and just might beat a Republican 1-on-1 in the general election.

Giuliani: he is going nowhere unless he runs for something else (and wins) first. Mayors don't become Presidents. Governors do. If Rudy can take on Hillary in 2006 and beat her, he can be President. If he takes her on and fails, his career is over. If he runs for Governor of NY, he'll win. And he just might stay there--which we need. NY could too easily fall back into democRat hands.

Romney: he could be a real surprise. But let's not forget that in 2006 and 2008, both of the liberal dinosaur Senators from Mass are up for re-election. Romney might want to take on one of them. He almost beat Kennedy in 1994, when he had no political experience. Since then, he has grown in stature while Kennedy has only grown fatter and more senile.

Brownback will never poll above single digits. His Presidential ambitions are about as respectable as those of Lamarr Alexander.

What will really happen? Well, the first serious GOP contender who takes a hard stance on IMMIGRATION and BORDER CONTROL will win. That won't be McCain. McCain will lose his precious media support if he does something so un-PC. And it won't be Giuliani, either.

Funny thing is, people like to imagine that Arnold can't win over conservatives. Well, I'm conservative, and I'll tell you what. Get that amendment passed, and give me an Arnold-Rice ticket, and I'm all over it! WHy? Because of prominent GOP pols, only Arnold has been willing to go out on a limb and say immigration and borders are out of control and we need to fix it.

Right there, he won over 90% of the conservatives the pundits say he can't win.

But it all keeps coming back to Allen in my book. He's a former governor, so we know he can govern. He's a sitting senator on all the right committees. He's entrenched in GOP campaigning. He has media friends. He has the NFL (never underestimate the power of sports--if Ditka had run against Obama, he would have won BIG). And he's tall. Never understimate the power of physical presence in a candidate!

Allen-Rice. Winning combo. Bush legacy. Leads to President Rice, leads to President Jeb.

Posted by: Gullyborg at June 23, 2005 12:05 AM

While I still have my heart set on Rice/Allen, and think the "I'm not running" is the only thing she can say, Gullyborg and others have got me to thinking, and besides all the other points, I wonder since having been the advisor/confidant for so long, if that role isn't in some ways more interesting for someone like Rice. At least for the time being. Which might make Vice President something very appealing. Not bad digs either.

Maybe it is the NFL connection, but I think Allen and Rice would get on very well and she'd be a better VP to him than he could ever be to her.

I'm also glad to learn that most of the right wing cavemen/women like myself and others like the most excellent Ken Pierce who participated in this thread have taken exception to Michael's characterization of the right vis a vis Condi. No offense taken of course, and while this is the first time commenting here, I am a long time reader and I think the world of Michael Totten, but I do hope this little thread serves to irritate his very open and engaged mind for a little while.

Posted by: bob at June 23, 2005 12:35 AM

Given all the party comments about Dr. Rice's pending candidacy, let me toss out a sobering note.

Remember Alma's fear for General Powell? The fear of political assasination? I wonder how that subject is answered in Rice's circle....

It's a truly disturbing question, but many years have passed since President Reagan met a bullet. It's only responsible to bring up the subject and think about it.

Posted by: Orson Olson at June 23, 2005 03:15 AM

Having not run for office before might actually be a plus for Rice. On the rest, I think MJT, you need to go spend some time in the South and the way you've been jet setting across the Mid East.

But O.O.'s comment about assasination was actually the first thing that came to my mind, as in "I hope she doesn't run because I think somebody will actually take a shot at her".

Think too, as someone noted, she is a Southerner. That still counts.

Posted by: Eric Blair at June 23, 2005 05:28 AM

Just what this country needs, another dissembling disassembler. Even under oath she won't answer questions directly. Sounds perfect.

Posted by: TJM at June 23, 2005 05:34 AM

I was just talking to a group of very Conservative voters about this last night. We ALL agreed that we want Condi Rice to be our nominee in 2008. Some of these people were very "religious right".

1. Condi is one of the architects of our current foreign policy, which I wholeheartedly support. She would be the perfect choice to carry on our National Security legacy.

2. She's brilliant - far smarter than Hillary - and she will crush Hillary in a debate. Hillary got crushed in her 2000 Senate debate, but it didn't matter there because she was a shoe-in in that state.

3. She's a much better orator than Hillary, who tends to shriek and be general unpleasant. Condi is a very confident communicator.

4. Former National Security Advisor and Secretary of State... Very nice credentials and worth a whole lot on the world stage.

5. She is Libertarian/Conservative on most of the "social issues", which is just fine. Her position on abortion - effectively thinking it to be a states-rights issue - is spot on and very sensible. And she's also against third-term abortions and Federally funded abortions, as well as being for parental notification. Condi has fine credibility on this issue for Conservatives, and when her position is explained to more people, there will be no trouble here.

These are the chief reasons we think she would make a great President and Candidate. Now on to the more "meaningless" points in terms of what really matters, but the points that are unfortunately unavoidable calculations to make for a candidate.

Why she'd be a great Candidate:

1. The reasons above.

2. Condi is a woman, and would neutralize the female surge that will go to HIllary if she runs against any man. Many women will vote for the woman for the simple novelty of it and the desire to get a woman elected President. Condi will neutralize this surge, which could be enough to keep Hillary out of the White House.

3. Condi is black. If the Democrats lost even 30% of the Black vote, they'd have no chance of winning any election. Condi certainly wouldn't get a majority of the black vote being a "Conservative Republican", but she WOULD peel off quite a bit of it as many black people will vote for the black person - having never had the opportunity to vote for a black person in a general Presidential Election. Condi might easily peel off enough of the black vote to make it impossible for Hillary to win.

4. The media. The media is going to be in Hillary's corner like never before in history, which is saying a lot considering how much they generally pull for the Democrat(Even Thomas' "fifteen points"). They will beat up on the Republican nominee even more fiercely than usual. Condi will neutralize this to an extent - they aren't going to savage a black woman nearly as hard as they'd savage a white male. This is worth a few points in a general election, probably.

5. Pure expedience and an eye for the future of the party:

If Hillary runs against somebody other than Condi, Rudy, or McCain(ugh!), she will win. There's just too much star power there, and the media will carry her water all day, in addition to her getting a huge swing in the women vote, etc. If the Republicans nominate a Romney, Allen, or some other guy that nobody in the general population has yet heard of, they're simply doomed. Especially if a jilted McCain decides to accept the Democrat's VP offer this time and create a "bi-partisan ticket" - a very real possibility for a man who REALLY wants to get into the White House - that will be impossible to defeat without star power of our own.

So the Democrats would get "the first woman President", and have another two generations to act like they're the party of "tolerance", etc.

What a coup for Republicans to get Condi - they'd have a great President, in on her own merits, AS WELL as having the first female President AND the first black President! That will help with the image of Republicans among minorities for decades to come, and considering how white people will be a minority in 2050 - Republicans desperately need this image boost.

I don't think there's a better candidate for the Republicans out there than Condi Rice - for the reasons I described and many more. We'd be fools - utter fools - not to recognize this and nominate such a strong candidate in so many ways.

And the best part of it all is not only is she the strongest candidate politically, but she's also one of our most WORTHY candidates for the actual position.

We're very fortunate to have her.

Posted by: David Hunt at June 23, 2005 07:08 AM

I was just talking to a group of very Conservative voters about this last night. We ALL agreed that we want Condi Rice to be our nominee in 2008. Some of these people were very "religious right".

1. Condi is one of the architects of our current foreign policy, which I wholeheartedly support. She would be the perfect choice to carry on our National Security legacy.

2. She's brilliant - far smarter than Hillary - and she will crush Hillary in a debate. Hillary got crushed in her 2000 Senate debate, but it didn't matter there because she was a shoe-in in that state.

3. She's a much better orator than Hillary, who tends to shriek and be general unpleasant. Condi is a very confident communicator.

4. Former National Security Advisor and Secretary of State... Very nice credentials and worth a whole lot on the world stage.

5. She is Libertarian/Conservative on most of the "social issues", which is just fine. Her position on abortion - effectively thinking it to be a states-rights issue - is spot on and very sensible. And she's also against third-term abortions and Federally funded abortions, as well as being for parental notification. Condi has fine credibility on this issue for Conservatives, and when her position is explained to more people, there will be no trouble here.

These are the chief reasons we think she would make a great President and Candidate. Now on to the more "meaningless" points in terms of what really matters, but the points that are unfortunately unavoidable calculations to make for a candidate.

Why she'd be a great Candidate:

1. The reasons above.

2. Condi is a woman, and would neutralize the female surge that will go to HIllary if she runs against any man. Many women will vote for the woman for the simple novelty of it and the desire to get a woman elected President. Condi will neutralize this surge, which could be enough to keep Hillary out of the White House.

3. Condi is black. If the Democrats lost even 30% of the Black vote, they'd have no chance of winning any election. Condi certainly wouldn't get a majority of the black vote being a "Conservative Republican", but she WOULD peel off quite a bit of it as many black people will vote for the black person - having never had the opportunity to vote for a black person in a general Presidential Election. Condi might easily peel off enough of the black vote to make it impossible for Hillary to win.

4. The media. The media is going to be in Hillary's corner like never before in history, which is saying a lot considering how much they generally pull for the Democrat(Even Thomas' "fifteen points"). They will beat up on the Republican nominee even more fiercely than usual. Condi will neutralize this to an extent - they aren't going to savage a black woman nearly as hard as they'd savage a white male. This is worth a few points in a general election, probably.

5. Pure expedience and an eye for the future of the party:

If Hillary runs against somebody other than Condi, Rudy, or McCain(ugh!), she will win. There's just too much star power there, and the media will carry her water all day, in addition to her getting a huge swing in the women vote, etc. If the Republicans nominate a Romney, Allen, or some other guy that nobody in the general population has yet heard of, they're simply doomed. Especially if a jilted McCain decides to accept the Democrat's VP offer this time and create a "bi-partisan ticket" - a very real possibility for a man who REALLY wants to get into the White House - that will be impossible to defeat without star power of our own.

So the Democrats would get "the first woman President", and have another two generations to act like they're the party of "tolerance", etc.

What a coup for Republicans to get Condi - they'd have a great President, in on her own merits, AS WELL as having the first female President AND the first black President! That will help with the image of Republicans among minorities for decades to come, and considering how white people will be a minority in 2050 - Republicans desperately need this image boost.

I don't think there's a better candidate for the Republicans out there than Condi Rice - for the reasons I described and many more. We'd be fools - utter fools - not to recognize this and nominate such a strong candidate in so many ways.

And the best part of it all is not only is she the strongest candidate politically, but she's also one of our most WORTHY candidates for the actual position.

We're very fortunate to have her.

Posted by: David Hunt at June 23, 2005 07:16 AM

I'm a conservative, and I love Condi. I would love to elect her president. It would be so very storybook Republican!

But she's not pro-life. I don't see how I can vote for her as long as that's true. All I can do is pray that she changes her mind.

Posted by: Maureen at June 23, 2005 07:27 AM

I was just talking to a group of very Conservative voters about this last night. We ALL agreed that we want Condi Rice to be our nominee in 2008. Some of these people were very "religious right".

1. Condi is one of the architects of our current foreign policy, which I wholeheartedly support. She would be the perfect choice to carry on our National Security legacy.

2. She's brilliant - far smarter than Hillary - and she will crush Hillary in a debate. Hillary got crushed in her 2000 Senate debate, but it didn't matter there because she was a shoe-in in that state.

3. She's a much better orator than Hillary, who tends to shriek and be general unpleasant. Condi is a very confident communicator.

4. Former National Security Advisor and Secretary of State... Very nice credentials and worth a whole lot on the world stage.

5. She is Libertarian/Conservative on most of the "social issues", which is just fine. Her position on abortion - effectively thinking it to be a states-rights issue - is spot on and very sensible. And she's also against third-term abortions and Federally funded abortions, as well as being for parental notification. Condi has fine credibility on this issue for Conservatives, and when her position is explained to more people, there will be no trouble here.

These are the chief reasons we think she would make a great President and Candidate. Now on to the more "meaningless" points in terms of what really matters, but the points that are unfortunately unavoidable calculations to make for a candidate.

Why she'd be a great Candidate:

1. The reasons above.

2. Condi is a woman, and would neutralize the female surge that will go to HIllary if she runs against any man. Many women will vote for the woman for the simple novelty of it and the desire to get a woman elected President. Condi will neutralize this surge, which could be enough to keep Hillary out of the White House.

3. Condi is black. If the Democrats lost even 30% of the Black vote, they'd have no chance of winning any election. Condi certainly wouldn't get a majority of the black vote being a "Conservative Republican", but she WOULD peel off quite a bit of it as many black people will vote for the black person - having never had the opportunity to vote for a black person in a general Presidential Election. Condi might easily peel off enough of the black vote to make it impossible for Hillary to win.

4. The media. The media is going to be in Hillary's corner like never before in history, which is saying a lot considering how much they generally pull for the Democrat(Even Thomas' "fifteen points"). They will beat up on the Republican nominee even more fiercely than usual. Condi will neutralize this to an extent - they aren't going to savage a black woman nearly as hard as they'd savage a white male. This is worth a few points in a general election, probably.

5. Pure expedience and an eye for the future of the party:

If Hillary runs against somebody other than Condi, Rudy, or McCain(ugh!), she will win. There's just too much star power there, and the media will carry her water all day, in addition to her getting a huge swing in the women vote, etc. If the Republicans nominate a Romney, Allen, or some other guy that nobody in the general population has yet heard of, they're simply doomed. Especially if a jilted McCain decides to accept the Democrat's VP offer this time and create a "bi-partisan ticket" - a very real possibility for a man who REALLY wants to get into the White House - that will be impossible to defeat without star power of our own.

So the Democrats would get "the first woman President", and have another two generations to act like they're the party of "tolerance", etc.

What a coup for Republicans to get Condi - they'd have a great President, in on her own merits, AS WELL as having the first female President AND the first black President! That will help with the image of Republicans among minorities for decades to come, and considering how white people will be a minority in 2050 - Republicans desperately need this image boost.

I don't think there's a better candidate for the Republicans out there than Condi Rice - for the reasons I described and many more. We'd be fools - utter fools - not to recognize this and nominate such a strong candidate in so many ways.

And the best part of it all is not only is she the strongest candidate politically, but she's also one of our most WORTHY candidates for the actual position.

We're very fortunate to have her.

Posted by: David Hunt at June 23, 2005 07:39 AM

Michael,

I accidentally posted that last long Condi comment three times. Please remove two of them. The page kept telling me the post wasn't going through, so I kept trying to reload. On finally being successful, I went back to the main page and saw it had posted three times.

I apologize for the inconvenience.

Posted by: David at June 23, 2005 07:41 AM

Maureen,

Condi is a Constitutionalist on the abortion issue, which I think is very sensible and correct. We Conservatives can't pick and choose with our Federalism. Either we are Constitutionalists or we are not, and since most of us claim to be, then we cannot enshrine ANY kind of abortion law into the Federal system. It doesn't belong there. There is nothing in the Constituion about abortion - it is cleary an issue for each individual state to address.

Rice would support overturning Roe vs. Wade and making it a state issue, where people can try to convince their fellow citizens what kinds of laws to make in their particular state on that issue. But she would not outlaw abortion with the Federal government, and that is the correct Constitutionalist position.

Rice is also for parental notification, and she is against Federally funded abortions and all abortions in the third trimester. But the rest is clearly an issue for the states.

And it's probably either Condi or Hillary. Which would the pro-Life crowd rather have in the White House?

Posted by: David at June 23, 2005 07:46 AM

I enjoy the Leftist canard that "legislating morality" is undemocratic.

If laws have nothing to do with personal conduct, or with issues of right and wrong, good and bad, then I'm not sure what function they serve. And Leftists certainly have no problem legislating their own "morality"; they appear to only object when others do it.

Posted by: at June 23, 2005 08:01 AM

I enjoy the Leftist canard that "legislating morality" is undemocratic.

Leftists take that one step further and legislate not only morality but your very thoughts with their hate crime laws.

Posted by: spaniard at June 23, 2005 08:30 AM

I don't think Mr. Totten's analysis of Condi's appeal (or lack of same) to certain "conservative" segments is far off the mark. As if it matters, I am a Christian.

Here in the red state of Louisiana, a female Democrat won the race for governor last round. The primary reason her well qualified, experienced and solidly conservative candidate lost was because he was "too brown" for the tastes of many a red necked voter, especially those proclaiming to be followers of Christ. So, they voted in a liberal democrat with lackluster credentials instead.

I'm often tempted to point out to these types that Christ in human form probably very closely resembled the "sand ni**ers" they hate so much.

Posted by: John at June 23, 2005 08:42 AM

Quick: name the last Secretary of State who became President. Ok, great. Now name the last unmarried person. Good, good. How about the last black person? Hmmm. How about the last woman? Ok, great. Here's one for you: name the last NSA who presided over the worst intelligence failure in history and got conned into making a 30 second spot against herself ("I believe the name was 'Bin Laden determined to strike within the United States') who became President...

Posted by: BMM at June 23, 2005 08:55 AM

Condi Rocks! Do I think there are some racists in the GOP who would never vote for a non-white? Sure. But I think that stereo-type is closer to MSM fantasy world than it is to the norm here on planet Earth. I am as conservative as it gets and she has my vote.

Even if Bob Jones U would turn against her, wouldn't that be her "Sister Soulja" moment that Rove could point to showing that she is more mainstream than W? She will more than make up any votes she loses on the extreme right with the additional votes of women and blacks who voted Kerry this time.

Being black helps solidify her hold of Ohio and Florida and might make the difference in Pa and Michigan. Being a woman and pro-gun could help win Wash, Alaska, and Hawaii and make the Dems fight to keep California. Being an intellectual and pro-Israel, NY could even end up being in play.
(Altough without Rudy on the ticket, I don't think Ca or NY go our way.)

Is she less pro-life than Reagan or Bush-the-Elder were when they were in office?

Her biggest weakness is her not being married. I see an all out character assasination from Michael Moore or someone of his ilk with proof or even just innuendos about her sexuality. Either she will be painted as a female Charlie Sheen or we will be subjected to stories about the time she partied with Ellen and Rosie. Coming soon to a theater near you: Fahren-dyke 469!

If they can throw enough mud, Condi won't make it out of the primaries. Shame, really. She would have made a great president.

Posted by: E-Man at June 23, 2005 09:18 AM

As to Condi's faith?

At 47, she is the stern but cautious driver behind America's foreign policy, the first female and the second African American (after Colin Powell) to serve as national security adviser to the president, and a committed Christian who unabashedly talks about her dependence on God.

- Christianity Today, 2002 (this is a terrific piece, BTW)

Her position on abortion is certainly not one that would thrill the hard-core pro-life community (I'd likely be counted among them), but it would also annoy those on the Planned Parenthood side of things, as well. As she views this as an issue that should be left to the states (rather than forced by judicial fiat upon us all), I'd have absolutely no trouble voting for her. Besides, she's a fellow University of Denver alum, so I'd have to, right?

Condi would be my pick, and I'm solidly in the conservative Evangelical camp. I, too, am a bit bemused by the assumptions made about the "Religious Right" in regard to Rice's race and gender. Bob Jones Univeristy is hardly representative of mainstream Evangelical Christianity (Biola university in California, or even Wheaton or Pepperdine would be far more accurate predictors of the Evangelical community's positions...). I think that if you took a straw poll among most of us, you'd find enormous support for a Rice candidacy.

She's definitely my pick, though I'd have to say that I agree with the commenter who indicated that it's rather unlikely she'll run in the first place. Her first love is academia, and I truly think she'll seek to return to it once this term is up. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not holding my breath.

Posted by: Jared at June 23, 2005 09:28 AM

Michael,

I am a republican and I consider myself a conservative, I dont know if that means I'm right wing so I'll leave it at that. I found your response to my original post to be very interesting and I've been thinking about it all day here at work. When I first saw your post, that the right wing would sink Condi, I thought why? because she's black, female, single all of the above? I know from being a party activist and spending time with other republicans that conservatives are not bigots. In fact I believe that conservatives are the least prejudice people I know, at least in my area of the country. However, I have alway thought that non-republicans assumed that the term conservative republican is synonymous with racist. I enjoy reading your blog, I think you are a thoughtful person who is alway seeking the truth which is what we all should be doing. Michael do you really believe that conservatives are so narrow minded as to be looking at the color of a persons skin or their gender to make a determination of weather or not they are fit for office?

Posted by: JOEFROMMASS at June 23, 2005 09:47 AM

MJT,

"Christian Right have about as much time for her as they do for Arnold Schwartznegger. She's black, she's a woman, she's an intellectual,"

Nice bit of prejudiced slander, Mr. Totten! I would not have expected it from you. Why don't you just go ahead and say that all Christian Republicans are rednecks? Your site is one of the places I go to read thoughtful analysis not stupid Jesusland diatribes.

First of all, you assume that the Christian Right is the far right, which is not true. The definition of "extreme right wing" is not having definite firmly held convictions that liberals disagree with. It is one of the most infuriating things about contemporary liberals. It is O.K. to be a republican so long as you don't seriously believe Republican ideology. Also, I am a moderate Christian independent who is being driven into the arms of the Republicans by the Democrats. I had better go look in the mirror, my neck is probably already a shade of pink.

Second, of all these supposed problems above, no Christian conservatives that I know would have a problem with any of these areas except possibly with her being a women. Even then, I think the ones that are uncomfortable with the president being a woman are a minority. And, if she is running against Hillary, that will not be an issue. Do you remember the episode of black churches burning? Ralph Reed was organizing physical and monetary help for the victims before Clinton even mentioned it.

For shame!

Posted by: JBP at June 23, 2005 09:55 AM

This Condi worship is getting a little out of hand. I had Condi as a professor at Stanford in the early 90s - she's smart but hardly "brilliant." She's driven, very diligent, keen eye for detail and a hard worker but not extraordinarily creative or original. She's a "staffer" extraordinaire, but didn't strike me as having great leadership skills. She spent most of the term trying to impress us with what a great job she and George H.W. Bush had done ending the cold war, not totally unjustified but she still came across as pretty self-serving. In fact, I really question the depths of her ideological convictions - she used to be squarely in the Scrowcroft, Bush I, Baker camp on foreign policy. Now she's a committed neocon? I don't buy it. I really don't think she's as smart as Romney, and probably not as smart as Hilary if you want to go IQ to IQ. The one character flaw you cannot honestly level at Hilary is that she's "stupid", she is a very intelligent person.

Posted by: vanya at June 23, 2005 10:03 AM

In my opinion, if Hillary is polling good in late 2007 Condi becomes an attractive candidate for Republicans. She would contain any female republican voters, and even a percentage point or two in black votes helps in swing states.
Otherwise look for Allen or Romney. Take a good look at Romney (a conservative Mormon) who won in Taxachussetts. A good portion of Swing staters, and blue staters can lean towards the right when it comes to their pocket books and Romney won on economic issues, not social issues. Romney wins Red States on social issues, swing states on economical issues. Very Reaganesque. Republicans need to get back to fighting government waste, otherwise gridlock is a good alternative.

Posted by: Tom in CT at June 23, 2005 10:03 AM

Re Romney - Would evangelical Republicans have a problem voting for a Mormon? It is a socially conservative religion and shares Judeo-Christian values, but Mormonism is not a Christian religion theologically speaking.

Posted by: vanya at June 23, 2005 10:19 AM

Sometime after the 2006 elections Cheny will become ill and tell Bush that because of his heart he can no longer stand the stress of being VP. Bush will be heart broken but he will accept what else can he do. Bush will then look around for a new VP. Now just quess who he will pick? Right, Condi. Who becomes a VERY active VP and representive for Bush.

I believe the plans are laid. If everything looks good in early 2007, it will happen.

Condi, all of a sudden would become the torch bearer and the top canidate. All that publicity during the confirmation.

Is there ANYONE else who COULD carry the torch??

Posted by: Dan Hamilton at June 23, 2005 10:20 AM

Condi isn't good enough as a politician to lead this country, let alone run for office. We're used to career politician phonies like Bill and Hilary and John Kerry who groomed themselves since infancy to woo the crowds. We have no use for regular folk bad actors like Condi and W who don't do well in front of cameras.

Posted by: spaniard at June 23, 2005 10:46 AM

Spaniard,

You are delusional if you think Bush is "regular folks" or a "bad actor." Bush is in fact a very good actor, very talented politician and he knows exactly how to play down to his audience. He's a Yale-Harvard grad from one of the most connected powerful elite families in America and he manages to make you and millions more believe he's "a normal guy". Sounds like a very polished political trick to me. Kerry on the other hand is a very bad actor since he consistently appears phony even to his supporters. Condi is a very smooth public speaker, I wouldn't worry about her on the stump.

Posted by: vanya at June 23, 2005 11:09 AM

Vanya,

to the Left, Bush is simultaneously "brilliant" and also a C- student "moron" whenever it's convenient for him to be so.

Posted by: spaniard at June 23, 2005 11:18 AM

I think you are mistaken about Condi's chances in a GOP primary. As a lifelong libertarian-leaning Republican who also happens to be a political appointee in a red-state GOP administration (IOW, I know a lot of GOP primary voters, I think she'd take it in a walk if she wanted it. But she's smart, and doesn't.

GOP primary voters don't care that she's black, female or single. Some would object to her social liberalism, of course, but to conclude that she's a non-starter because of the other three is to succumb to the sort of stereotyping you generally decry.

Posted by: Dodd at June 23, 2005 11:40 AM

Vanya, I don't know if Evangelicals would vote for a Mormon. If Bush (Methodist) ran against Carter (Baptist) who would Evangelicals vote for?

Posted by: Tom in CT at June 23, 2005 11:49 AM

Vanya, I don't know if Evangelicals would vote for a Mormon. It depends how you define Evangelical? From my definition, Bush would be a Methodist who gets support from Evangelicals because he is pro life.

Posted by: Tom in CT at June 23, 2005 11:57 AM

Well, Tom, Methodists and Bapists are both Christian. Technically speaking Mormons are not Christians, and once upon a time were actually antagonistic towards Protestant churches. To most Americans I don't think this makes much of a difference but to some Evangelicals it does. I have no idea how many still think like this, anti-Mormonism may be a prejudice that has faded away, much like Evangelical dislike of Catholics seems to have faded.

Posted by: vanya at June 23, 2005 12:03 PM

What about Cheney resigning as VP in 2006 or so and nominating Rice or Guilianni. Any thoughts?

Posted by: Brett at June 23, 2005 12:03 PM

I don't think that many Evangelicals pick their candidates based on what denomination they are. They pick them based on how the candidate stands on the issues that are most important to them. And a Mormon who is pro-Life would be preferred over a Baptist who is pro-Choice.

Posted by: exhelodrvr at June 23, 2005 12:24 PM

Brett:

Hell, or even dying; sadly he's not in the best health. Condi would be a natural replacement in any case.

Posted by: TallDave at June 23, 2005 12:26 PM

Vayna, did Condi ever make a pass at you while you were her student? :)

Posted by: Mike#3or4 at June 23, 2005 01:19 PM

Michael,

Your post contains many stereotypes about Christians and right-wingers which are not based in reality. Some of them are very insulting. I never expect that sort of thing coming from you.

Posted by: Juliette at June 23, 2005 01:37 PM

Re Condi:

She is an academic at heart. I'm not sure that she has instincts or the desire to do what is neccessary to compete in Presidential politics.

As an administration insider, she will have to defend the policies of the past eight years while distancing and distinguishing herself from Bush. Not an easy balancing act.

She would provide a level of rhetorical eloquence not seen since the likes of Reagan and JFK.

I'd vote for her in heartbeat. Grassroots efforts are underway here in New Hampshire.

Posted by: bob at June 24, 2005 12:01 PM

Any person who thinks that an African-American woman has a snowball's chance in hell in a Republican Presidential primary is in deep, deep denial.

Sorry, the Party that responds to Bush's anti-McCain smear about a mixed-race love child is not the Party of Rice '08. Consider this an intervention. It's time to face reality.

Posted by: Kimmitt at June 24, 2005 02:26 PM

Kimmit, I think that assumption is dated. If you look at the polls on Condi in the MSM she fares well with republicans. McCain is popular with democrats and indy voters. I don't think it has a much to do with race as you would like.

Posted by: Mike #3or4 at June 24, 2005 07:51 PM

Guys like Kimmit make my day. They always enter a thread like this. Usually late. "Racist Republicans." Talk about denial. Again, who is the Secretary of State? But I hope they keep their head in the sand as history passes them by, as they are in for a rude awakening, if they are capable of awaking at all. Keep it up--racist! Keep up the Dean, Move-On, Moore line of attack as Steele takes Maryland, and as the Dems. lose in one big election too much of the African-American vote for them ever to be a national party again. You think most African-American's in the inner cities are happy about how Jesse Jackson and the teacher's unions and big government takes care of their children. Man, talk about a revolution just waiting to happen. Or, as we speak, is happening. Kimmit, typical. All he has left is his numb, hating mind. May he remain the conscience of the Left for just a bit longer. And I must say Totten also disappointed me greatly, and he doesn't do that often.

Posted by: mike at June 24, 2005 11:56 PM

Kimmitt,

The GOP could easily float a black candidate that will cut unwaivering support by 10 percent of the population for Democrats at the knees.

The fact is, in 1996 the Clinton administration were quaking in their shoes about Colin Powell. Had he signaled that he wanted the nomination he would have swept through Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. That would have locked up the nomination.

I know all of these states pretty well, Iowa and New Hampshire would be shoe-ins for Condi. South Carolina has it's southern legacy to deal with, but for every racist in the state, there are huge numbers of blacks who would cross over to vote for her. FYI, blacks constitute thirty percent of the population in South Carolina and are highly active in politics.

Democrats I've talked to blanche when they hear Rice bandied as a candidate. They know it will undermine a political base that they have taken for granted.

And this doesn't even factor in how a Rice candidacy would diminish the famous gender gap.

Posted by: bob at June 25, 2005 11:42 AM

I doubt that black people would vote for Condi just because she is black. Republicans, regardless of who runs, should run with issues that attracts some black voters anyway. The Dems can only divide the country along racial lines if you let them.

Posted by: Mike#3or4 at June 25, 2005 02:10 PM

The GOP could easily float a black candidate that will cut unwaivering support by 10 percent of the population for Democrats at the knees.

Oh, if the GOP were capable of floating an African-American candidate, that would be a major advantage. You're right that a Powell candidacy would be very strong, though Powell faces the dual challenge of both dark skin and moderate views.

Don't get me wrong -- one of President Bush's few positive qualities is his personal indifference to skin color. But this is not a characteristic shared by his Party as a whole.

Democrats I've talked to blanche when they hear Rice bandied as a candidate.

Are you sure it isn't because she's an incompetent boob who gets Americans killed?

Seriously, there's just no way. We can make a bet right now -- if an African-American GOP candidate takes the Presidential nomination in the next two cycles, I will pay a thousand dollars to the first ten people to click through to my webpage and send me an email. You don't even need to put up anything against me; I don't take money from fools.

Posted by: Kimmitt at June 25, 2005 04:37 PM

Kimmitt, I will definatly stop by your website if an African-American is nominated by the GOP. What state do you live in?

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