June 14, 2005
Carrying Karimov’s Water - Again
Our relationship with Uzbekistan’s tyrant Islam Karimov gets slimier by the day. Here we are arguing on Karimov’s behalf (albeit for tactical, not ideological reasons) and siding with Russia’s Vladimir Putin - in the halls of NATO no less.
Defense officials from Russia and the United States last week helped block a new demand for an international probe into the Uzbekistan government's shooting of hundreds of protesters last month, according to U.S. and diplomatic officials.I understand Nathan Hamm’s objections to getting rid of Karimov now. I do. He makes some good points because there are good points to make. But every time something disgraceful like this happens more and more people are going to swing around to my point of view here.British and other European officials had pushed to include language calling for an independent investigation in a communique issued by defense ministers of NATO countries and Russia after a daylong meeting in Brussels on Thursday. But the joint communique merely stated that "issues of security and stability in Central Asia, including Uzbekistan," had been discussed.
The outcome obscured an internal U.S. dispute over whether NATO ministers should raise the May 13 shootings in Andijan at the risk of provoking Uzbekistan to cut off U.S. access to a military air base on its territory.
I don’t want to be blasé about our need for military bases in Central Asia. The worst attack ever on American soil came out of Central Asia. We need bases. But I’m not convinced we absolutely have to have them in that particular country. The cost of doing “business” with Karimov keeps going up. And it keeps going up at a time when we need him less than we did.
Don’t agree with me? Okay. I won’t be blasé about our need for military bases in Central Asia if you won’t be blasé about our need to project a decent and honorable image of ourselves to the rest of the world. If you don’t think world opinion of the United States matters at a time like this, well, I don’t know what to tell ya.
Posted by Michael J. Totten at June 14, 2005 01:04 PMThis is a hot topic today. I had a post about it, and I'm extremely pissed off at the Pentagon for once again going off and making its own policy. Russia was willing to allow the insertion of the call for an investigation until our defense officials mucked it up with their "this isn't the right venue" argument.
We were doing about as good as could be expected under the circumstances. The walls were closing in on Uzbekistan until Defense gave them some breathing room.
I think it's important to keep the military base, but not so important that we should worry about insulting the Uzbek government. If anything, they should be placating the west.
Posted by: Nathan at June 14, 2005 01:12 PMWhat of Kaplan's opinion that military bases in Uzbek are no longer necessary now that Afghanistan is a friendly country?
Posted by: Jeremy at June 14, 2005 01:53 PMHave military installations in Turkey. That way they can "democratically" tell you to fsck off when you actually decide you might want to put those military installations to some use.
Posted by: mika. at June 14, 2005 07:17 PMI agree with Jeremy, can't we base in Afghanistan or even Iraq? I admit there is some serious infrastructure building that needs to be done first but I would hope we are heading in a direction that allows us to jettison the Uzbek baggage.
Posted by: Jace at June 14, 2005 07:40 PMThen ditch Kasimov and put a big fat base in Iraq. The Iraqi government will welcome our presence as they know everybody in the middle east is gunning for their asses.
Posted by: spaniard at June 14, 2005 08:31 PMHave military installations in Turkey. That way they can "democratically" tell you to fsck off when you actually decide you might want to put those military installations to some use.
It's a wonderful attitude to think that democracy is a wonderful thing for other countries to have unless, of course, the people disagree with the US. Then they should have a compliant dictator.
If the US had gone on a military venture which didn't alienate 80% of the Turkish population then I'm sure they would have been able to use their airspace, even without the attempted multi $billion bribes...
Posted by: Jeremy at June 15, 2005 01:07 AMThanks for more info, Nathan. This is the realpolitik Hyde face of the schizoid Bush policy -- or is it Rice policy? or Rumsfeld? or are those two the shizoid makers?
The mild stability argument is still pertinent, and letting Uzbekistan descend into civil war or Chinese clientalism are still alternatives to be avoided. But the US needs more clear signals it's detaching from a non-democratic state / ally.
And the issue of NOT ditching your allies is very real. If we want allies who are dictators, they have to know they won't get ditched. At least, not without a slow glide downwards.
Posted by: Tom Grey - Liberty Dad at June 15, 2005 02:57 AM"The worst attack ever on American soil came out of Central Asia."
Hunh? 15 of the hijackers were Saudis, one was Egyptian, one was Lebanese and 2 were from the UAE. Not a Central Asian in the bunch. The leadership of Al Qaeda is Saudi. Yes, a number of the hijackers trained for a little while in camps in Afghanistan - but who financed those camps? The Saudis. The hijackers also did not attack FROM Central Asia, they were all living comfortably in the US for months and in some cases years before the attack began. You could have said, with just as much justification, that the attack came out of Hamburg, Germany. Let's call a spade a spade, there is one, and only one Islamic ideology, that really represents a direct and present threat to the mainland US and that is Saudi sponsored Wahabism. So why do we need military bases in Central Asia again? If the only way we can keep Afghanistan from falling back into chaos is by having a permanent military presence there than we really should just declare it a colony and do it right.
The Uzbeks, Kazakhs and Kyrgyz want US soldiers on their soil as leverage against Russia and China - fighting Islamic terrorism is a pretext for them. There are good geopolitical reasons for us to have military bases in these countries - protecting our energy supply, protecting their independence from the Bear and Dragon, but Islamic terror has very little to do with it.
Posted by: Vanya at June 15, 2005 06:42 AMmika --
You aren't implying that when the Turkish parliament voted not to let the US use Turkish territory in prosecuting the war, that it was not actually in fact a democratic vote?
One can bemoan the result of the vote, and I suppose one can even suggest the Turkish military take matters into its non-democratic hands, like Paul Wolfowitz urged...
but putting "democratically" in quotes, as if the vote wasn't really an example of Middle East democracy in action, makes it look as if "democratic", in your mind, is just pr doublespeak for "pro-American."
Posted by: markus rose at June 15, 2005 06:54 AMwe really should just declare it a colony and do it right.
Because four out of five empires agree, colonies work!
tosses his world history book out the window
Posted by: Ratatosk, Squirrel of Discord at June 15, 2005 06:55 AMI was just reading about Halfway.com (very nice pictures) and how the town got $73,000 from www.half.com of Philadelphia for the use of its name, and I had a bizarre idea - instead of trying to untie the grotesquely welded realpolik knots of the place, why don't some investors get together and buy Uzbekistan?
A small desert town in California was sold on eBay for about $1 million. Uzbekistan's GDP was only $47.59 billion in 2004 - considering the value of the resources Uzbekistan has, the place is dirt cheap. Google, which has no land and few brick-and-mortar assets was recently valued at $80 billion. Uzbekistan's problems are obviously due to mismanagement - if you get rid of the management, it would have potential.
There are a lot of countries out there with the same problems - the Sudan ($76 billion), Yemen ($16.25 billion). If you compared the cost of going to war with nasty sociopathinc dictators vs. buying their nations from them outright, which would be cheaper? It would also be cheaper than the current system of paying them bribes in the form of economic incentives and poverty relief, which they promptly redirect to a Swiss bank and a fleet of Mercedes.
Yes, paying dictators would be a form of reward for their crimes, but the international community already rewards them for their crimes. The point of this payment would be to get them out of power, instead of spending billions to maintain the status quo as we watch them slaughter their own people. It might not solve all of these nations' problems to put them on eBay, but it wouldn't hurt.
(no, I haven't had any drugs this morning - just coffee)
Posted by: mary at June 15, 2005 07:21 AMThis is crazy. The US should not even have needed to have asked for permission.
The US contributes BILLIONS to the Turk economy by having those bases there. Not to mention the incalculable worth of having the US protect Turkey's ass with those bases for all those years. We should immediately have dropped Turkey from our list of allies, pushed to drop them from NATO, and push to drop them from any Western political or economical club. Their repression of the Kurds and denial of the Armenian holocaust, make them just as "sleazy" an ally as any out there. Why are we turning a blind eye to that?
Further, their society's slide into the Islamist camp also needs to be addressed. And allowing that Islamist government to have a veto over US operational plans is not it.
Posted by: mika. at June 15, 2005 07:23 AMMary,
Nice idea but I think you're making the economist mistake of assuming people are motivated entirely by material needs and wants. Karimov and his clan don't really need any more money - right now he has something money can't buy - visceral power, the literal power of life or death over his subjects. He is the alpha male/top dog in Uzbekistan. His word is basically law, and talented and intelligent people have to beg and plead with him for favors. Assuming he has no real moral scruples, what can the US give him that would equal that?
Posted by: Vanya at June 15, 2005 07:39 AMAfghan provincial and parliamentary elections are scheduled for September.
Significant numbers of troops were temporarily added in Afghanistan for the presidential elections.
It would be reasonable to conclude that planning has already taken place to flow some additional quantity of troops and equipment into Afghanistan for the September elections.
Changing the nature of the logistics pipeline to Afghanistan between now and September would clearly not be a preferred solution for anyone in the DOD.
Posted by: Solder's Dad at June 15, 2005 09:24 AMAssuming he has no real moral scruples, what can the US give him that would equal that?
I assume he doesn't, so it would have to be an offer that he can't refuse - which means some kind of military force/threat would still be required.
This is a very good point:
The Uzbeks, Kazakhs and Kyrgyz want US soldiers on their soil as leverage against Russia and China - fighting Islamic terrorism is a pretext for them. There are good geopolitical reasons for us to have military bases in these countries - protecting our energy supply, protecting their independence from the Bear and Dragon, but Islamic terror has very little to do with it.
I have to wonder if fighting Islamic terrorism is just a pretext for us too. In reality, other than our military and the Iraqis, no one in our government has much interest in actually fighting terror-supporting nations or terrorists. Our government wants to win Islamist 'hearts and minds' because they see them as a pit bull to scare our 'real' enemies, the Russians and the Chinese.
The Russians, the Chinese and other important nations have also noticed this.
The only problem with this strategy is the fact that these Islamist pit bulls are still our enemies. When a pit bull eats one of the kids it's a good idea to get rid of it. After 9/11 we put a muzzle on our Islamist allies and we think everything's ok.
Anyone can see where this strategy is going - more cold-war realpolitik, more money-wasting proxy wars in small states, presidents and the state department working for 'national interests' that have nothing to do with what the American people want or need. A realpolitik war depends on keeping the voters uninformed. Somehow, I don't think that this is what the founding fathers had in mind. It would be nice to find a way to change our course. Anything would be better.
Another crazy idea - we could try to see the Russians and the Chinese as trading partners, not enemies. They haven't sponsored any 9/11 style attacks on American soil and while their laws and human rights records are not democratic, they're a lot more liberal than the Shariah nations that we call our allies. The primitive tribes of the Amazon are more liberal than the Shariah nations that we call our allies. It might be risky to call the Bear and the Dragon our friends, but if we're willing to hold hands with Prince Abdullah and support Karimov, we've already hit bottom. We have nowhere to go but up.
OK, who stole Mary's nick?!
hehehe
Mary, I think your post is excellent and on the mark. Too bad most of the rest of the country can't see beyond the giant flag that keeps getting waved in their faces.
It's sad when patriotism gets used like a pavlovian bell.
Posted by: Ratatosk, Squirrel of Discord at June 15, 2005 01:15 PM"Another crazy idea - we could try to see the Russians and the Chinese as trading partners, not not enemies."
Why? These are expansionist empire seeking authoritarian political entities. Same with the Islamists. We should do everything possible to fragment and dissolve their authority.
Posted by: mika. at June 15, 2005 02:00 PMIf we're going to pal around with big Vlad in Moscow, we might as well pal around with little Vlad down in Uzbekistan.
I'd rather do neither, personally.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at June 15, 2005 02:58 PMMary,
have you been paying attention to all the trade that HAS been going on with China? And the efforts being made with Russia? The problem is that we have been too open with them in those respects, because we don't get nearly the cooperation in return that we should.
The Cold War is dead, but we are not at the End of History.
That comes when there are no more dictators on Earth -- a dream I now have as more objective and realistic and achievable than "peace on Earth".
Anyone can see where this strategy is going - more cold-war realpolitik, more money-wasting proxy wars in small states, presidents and the state department working for 'national interests' that have nothing to do with what the American people want or need.
The Bush strategy that I agree with is headed towards:
military regime chang in Iraq, leading to democracy (including the possibility of Islamic democracy) and the entrenchment of Human Rights;
clear verbal support for democratic movements;
continued limited support for dictator allies who help with our more active regime change/ nation building exercises.
One or two more democracies every two years seems like a slow but reasonable progress. (Tow to help the new democracies reduce their inevitable corruption is another issue.)
Anything is better. You don't mean this. Another Lebanon civil war? Another Rwanda genocide where the world looks away, waiting for it to end, so that then they can apologize for not doing more earlier? (oh wait, Darfur folk aren't all dead yet...UN says no genocide! no apologies yet.) Another Taliban like takeover in Uzbekistan?
The WaPo article about a US Soldier who doesn't believe the Iraqis will ever be ready includes a little note about the "awe" the Iraqis have in the suicider bombers. This is under talked about. Humans willing to DEFINITELY die, planning to die, not just RISK death -- such people can have huge power of intimidation.
Law is based on the Law always "winning" -- 'I fought the law and the, the law won...'
The Law winning is based on Assured Destruction of the law breakers -- if they keep fighting, they will surely lose, so they should surrender, submit, stop fighting, and live. Mutual AD clearly won't deter any suicide nukers.
The social, not military, threat of Islamic suicide killers is very real.
I'm pretty sure the leaders of the Bear and Dragon can be contained/ seduced by the materialist success of peaceful wealth creation (known as capitalism).
How to get more democracy in Uzbekistan? That's more important than how much or little we support Karimov, though clearly related.
What are the realistic alternatives? I don't see Bono or Peter Gabriel singing about their success in ending racism in food-exporting Rhodesia, which is now Mugabe ruled starving Zimbabwe.
Focus more US aid on house building. In Uzbekistan, Africa, everywhere there is poverty. And keep records of costs and houses built.
Posted by: Tom Grey - Liberty Dad at June 16, 2005 01:05 AMTosk! It’s nice to see you're back – and that you're agreeing with me (?)
The Cold War was all about secrecy - the government got into the habit of telling Americans that they were doing one thing when, they were actually doing something else. We encouraged them to take this paternal role in looking out for our best interests, and in many ways we abandoned some responsibilities as voters. It was a bad habit to get into.
Posted by: mary at June 16, 2005 07:09 AMMary,
Of course, I'm agreeing with you ;-). Either this country belongs to the people (the land, the water, the resources) with the government acting as our steward, or the government is simply another oligarchy that makes us feel better since we get to poke ballots with pointy things.
If this country belongs to the People, it is the right and responsibility of the People to tell the government HOW they will act as our steward. Bad representation isn't much different than no representation....
Posted by: Ratatosk, Squirrel of Discord at June 16, 2005 07:40 AMIf we're going to pal around with big Vlad in Moscow, we might as well pal around with little Vlad down in Uzbekistan.
Following the Bush administration's version of our 'national interests', we are palling around with little Vlad in Uzbekistan. We may be doing this because we’re fighting a residual cold war or we may be doing it because we’re fighting terrorism. It’s really hard to tell.
I'd also rather avoid dealing with Putin. But, during WWII, Roosevelt realized that we couldn't fight the fascists and the commies at the same time, so he chose to fight the fascists first. That worked.
Even during the worst, most convoluted Cold War Realpolitik maneuvering, we were always clear about one thing – we were fighting communism. We didn’t claim to be fighting communism while allying ourselves with communist regimes. For that reason, I don’t think we can effectively fight terrorism while allying ourselves with terrorist states like the KSA, the Sudan and Yemen.
If we had to make a choice between the ex-communists and commies who are leaning towards capitalism (with some residual authoritarian leanings) and the Muslim supremacists who despise us for what we are, who have dreams that closely echo the dreams of the Third Reich, I'd choose an uneasy trust-free alliance with the Bear & Dragon and fight the fascists first.
Focus more US aid on house building. In Uzbekistan, Africa, everywhere there is poverty. And keep records of costs and houses built.
Tom – do you know of any NGOs that are currently focusing on home building in that area? Because it would be a good idea.
Posted by: mary at June 16, 2005 07:40 AMJefferson Quotes I find applicable:
"No government can continue good but under the control of the people."
"No nation is permitted to live in ignorance with impunity."
"Nobody can acquire honor by doing what is wrong."
And my personal favorite:
"Peace. commerce, and honest friendship with all nations--entangling alliances with none."
Posted by: Ratatosk, Squirrel of Discord at June 16, 2005 07:54 AMOur relationship with the Saudis is pretty disgraceful too, knowing what we know re them. But we haven't really done anything re it too. But their time will come.
Islam Karimov's time will come too. Let's take this one at a time. Once we finish with Afghanistan, we'll focus on Uzbekistan.
Posted by: john marzan at June 16, 2005 08:27 PMWhat's going with Karimov is hardly unique or new. Traditionally, the US has had no problem dealing with 'strongmen' who claim to be on our side in some larger struggle and has mostly given them free reign for dealing with their domestic opposition.
Why you would expect a policy followed by dem and rep alike to change now isn't clear.
I think it stinks, but don't expect any lines in the sand anytime soon.
And I bow to Vanya who nails what makes dictators run.
Mary, there's a Slovak org ETP (I'm a volunteer Board member) working with Habitat for Humanity, and we built some 125 houses for Roma (Gypsies). We just submitted a funding request for a study to prepare plans to expand this type of sweat equity housing -- in Slovakia.
Habitat is just starting in Ukraine, not yet in Belarus.
I hope to do more with Belarus, and support the Friends of Belarus -- but time is an issue.
I think the World Bank should become the World Mortgage Bank, and give housing loans to people who have jobs but don't qualify for loans by commercial banks.
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