April 26, 2005

Where do they go from here?

Posted by Mary Madigan

"Where do we go from here?" Pro-democracy bloggers in the Middle East are asking themselves that question.

arch.memory from Lebanese Blogger Forums says:

So, now that they're gone, where go we go from here? In trying to reflect on the past several pivotal weeks in our history, several issues come to mind. One thing that concerns me is that fissure in Lebanese society that came to the surface after the assassination of Hariri and was perhaps at its climax during the tense days of "counter-demonstrations": namely, the Lebanese Shiites vs. the rest of the Lebanese. Before you jump down my throat, I am a Lebanese Shiite, or as I prefer to put it, I come from a Shiite family, since sect is one of those things that are dictated on us, the Lebanese, upon birth, regardless of faith. In any case, my interest in putting up this call for a discussion came after a comment my brother left to a post on my blog. The post was about an article in Slate magazine online by Elisabeth Eaves entitled "Camping in BeirutóA Revolutionary Act". Here is the comment; I thought it would be a good way to spur discussion:

When I read this article, I felt, well, sad.

I do not know why I am writing this, it does not relate much to the article, but I need to express it somewhere, this feeling that I have of perpetual guilt.

I am a Chiite Lebanese and I support the cause of the camp/revolution that is going on, and I did not take part in them. I was not willing to sacrifice my semester for something I knew was good for my country.

It might not be about sectarianism, and it might bring nothing out (though it has), but, if for anything, it was (and still is) about citizen contribution to the democratic process. That is all.
At Spirit of America's Lebanon Blog, Michael Totten explains why the democratic process is so important:
Some of the tent-city residents have told me their goals are not only national. The goals of some of them (but not all of them) also are global. They truly believe they are resolving the clash of civilizations here in Beirut by proving that Christian and Islamic civilizations can co-exist in peace and in friendship. Lebanon has long been a bridge between East and West. In the future it may play the crucial role of a peace broker.

But it is not going to work if Lebanon cannot become a mature liberal democracy. Dictatorships notoriously use divide-and-rule tactics to pit their enemies against one another. Syria has been playing that game inside Lebanon - and on the world stage - for a long time. Terrorism is only one of the sinister byproducts of that. War is another.

Lebanon's civil war drew in four foreign powers: Syria, Iran, Israel, and the United States. Those four powers are still simmering in a state of cold war today. Naturally enough, the two that are ruled by dictatorships - Syria and Iran - are also state sponsors of terrorism.

The Iranian government, state sponsor of Hizbullah, recently said that Lebanon was "vulnerable" and risked civil war. Of that threat, Raja Abu Hassan, said:
Okay. I think Iran is going too far now! We all know that Hizballah is intimately connected to the Iranian regime. However, we were told over and over again that it was a "national" resistance force fighting to liberate Lebanon from foreign occupation.

Today, Mr. Khatami warned that "the possibility exists of an escalation of differences and degeneration into a civil war." hmmm... Who is he to say that there is a possibility for civil war in Lebanon???

One commenter on Raja's site said:
Hizbullah will never issue any statement requesting an apology from the Iranian President. At the time that the last Syrian tank is leaving our country, the last thing we want to hear is a threat. We are just tired of this sort of talk. As a "foreign" country, Iran should just stick to the diplomatic talk that all foreign countries have been releasing about Lebanon which is namely hoping that elections take place on time and that they wish us the best of luck!

On another note, Raja, I read an article from Al-Mustaqbal, that analyzed Hizbullah's latest moves: supporting Mrad as opposed to Mikati (when Mikati is supposedly part of a Syrian-Arab-International deal to move things forward), giving Ghazaleh a gift (Israeli weapon) during his farewell visit to Nasrallah, and announcing to the heads of the security apparatus (especially El-Sayyid)that they will provide them with security.

The author, Naseer Al-Ass'ad, was baffled that Hizbullah is outright taking sides and despite the moving forward that we've witnessed this past week, they are still leaning towards the "losing" side. The author questioned whether Hizbullah is worried that it will be next and that the disarmament issue will be put on the negotiating table. Whatever their motives, such moves will be counter-productive for Hizbullah as Lebanon heads towards a post-syrian era after the elections.

Another recited a list of Hizbollah-related propaganda with more than a hint of irony:

No Raja, are you telling me that Hizbullah is more than the national resitance, that Hizbullah, which according to them, has never and will never turn its arms on other lebanese? that they are merely an armed milita heavily influenced by a foreign power with an islamist agenda by its very nature, unpalatable to the majority of lebanese. Well it is clear, you must be a zionist imperialist for casting aspersions on " a source of pride for the islamic and arab world", To borrow a phrase from a few good men, " We want hizbullah on that wall, We need them on that wall" and if we disagree we are zionist imperialists rooting for american hegemony, and we are all going to hell! Maybe now I won't have to keep reading about their social services etc...
Tony from Across the Bay mentions that the myth/propaganda of Hizbullah's never using its weapons against other Lebanese is historically false. He says: "I'm not sure how people forget Hizbullah's wars with its Shiite rival Amal, and even with the PSP)and remains false today (with often-deadly clashes with Amal going on on a regular basis)."

In response to Raja's comments on the Iranian threat, one commenter said:

80% of iranians are just itching to hang these clerics and they are warning us about differences in our country.
According to Wretchard of the Belmont Club, indirect warfare has put two terror-supporting states, Syria and Iran, on the defensive. The Mullahs are welcoming ex-Baathists into their fold.

The Persian Journal believes that that billionaire Mullahs are hoping that this Arab-Iranian alliance will benefit them, not politicially but also financially. Unfortunately for the Mullahs, things aren't working out as planned.

More news here and here

Posted by Mary Madigan at April 26, 2005 06:04 PM

Comments

"The goals of some of them (but not all of them) also are global. They truly believe they are resolving the clash of civilizations here in Beirut by proving that Christian and Islamic civilizations can co-exist in peace and in friendship. Lebanon has long been a bridge between East and West. In the future it may play the crucial role of a peace broker."

That is truly a heavy weight for such young people to bear. Nevertheless, I do not think they are mistaken. I see WHY they truly believe in their historical role because I think they are correct in their assessment that this is a "clash of civilizations" and that they are indeed civilization's "peacemakers". Therefore, they deserve our utmost respect and, insofar as we are praying people, they most certainly deserve our prayers. You too, Michael, for being there and doing what you can - that makes you a peace broker too :-)

Posted by: Caroline at April 26, 2005 07:58 PM

Maybe, it didn't the radar of any of you pro-democracy advocates here, but there was a 1.2 million person rally in Mexico City last Sunday against the attempted banning of the leftist PRD's Lopez Obrador (the Mexico City Mayor) from running for president. So maybe Michael T. can hit Mexico (and Venezuela and Haiti) after he's done bringing democracy to Lebanon.

Posted by: Drydock at April 27, 2005 01:42 AM

Drydock:

There was lots of appreciation for the opposition in Mexico here, and embarrassment that we have an ally there who suppresses his opponents. The same for Cambodia, Ecuador, etc.

See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/04/26/AR2005042601399.html

" Intelligence analysts aren't sure whether Assad is an inept bungler or really has a plan for change in Syria and will use the Lebanon disaster as an opportunity. A big conference of the Baath Party is scheduled for June, and Syrians say Assad has been signaling that he will use it to end one-party rule and allow greater freedom. "

Posted by: Ruth at April 27, 2005 02:37 AM

Drydock,

I'd love to go. Haiti is slightly on the sketchy side, though.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 27, 2005 05:10 AM

"Where do we go from here?" Pro-democracy bloggers in the Middle East are asking themselves that question.”

They must send articulate representatives to the United States to visit the major broadcast media outlets. Michael Totten should strongly encourage them not to delay winning over the American public. This campaign should start immediately. A few English speaking Lebanese bloggers would also be helpful.

Posted by: David Thomson at April 27, 2005 07:37 AM

David,

Today I hooked up the Pulse of Freedom bloggers with a BBC reporter.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 27, 2005 08:47 AM

Oh, and their Pulse of Freedom site made CNN 20 hours after they launched it.

http://pulseoffreedom05.org

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 27, 2005 08:50 AM

They must send articulate representatives to the United States to visit the major broadcast media outlets

That's a good idea. They're young, smart and attractive, qualities that appeal to all sorts of media outlets.

I'll bet most of the people who wear those Che T-shirts buy them because he looks cool in his hat. The pro-independence bloggers/protesters could effectively sell their message to Americans who intelligently consider the issues, and to the others, like the MSM.

Posted by: mary at April 27, 2005 08:52 AM

Meanwhile, Lebanon has a quality of life to improve. While international attention is certainly called for, so is domestic attention. The Lebanese people won't be so hot for democracy if everyday life isn't also improved.

What gets them so motivated to protest? It can't have just been the death of Hariri. Such things are merely sparks in a bigger flame.

Looking at pulseoffreedom05.org, one of the biggest issues seems to be Lebanese political prisoners. That will have to be addressed. Lebanon will need an interim body to see to tracking down and releasing those prisoners. They could just throw the doors open, I suppose - but I don't know if there are any bona fide violent criminals also held in those prisons.

Luckily, it sounds like Lebanon doesn't have some of the basic problems Iraq is having right now, such as brownouts and food shortages. I did, however, remember reading about "economic deterioration". What did this mean? Unemployment? Corruption? Lack of investment? This will be the big one, I suspect. Political prisoners are a short-term issue; economics are forever.

In short, the commandoes of democracy are gaining ground, and it's becoming time for the foot soldiers of democracy to hold it now. A lot of unglamorous problems will need to be solved, to push Lebanon further on the road to prosperity.

Anyone ever bought anything Made In Lebanon?

Posted by: Paul Brinkley at April 27, 2005 09:17 AM

Apperently most of the good jobs in Lebanon were given to Syrians with contacts in the military. Changing that system will probably improve the economy.

From Michael's description, Lebanon sounds like a beautiful place. It also sounds like the population, outside of the extremist-controlled areas, is pretty well educated. The United Arab Emirates are investing in the Lebanese tourism industry. Our govt. should also openly encourage investment in Lebanon.

Posted by: mary at April 27, 2005 09:34 AM

Isn't there a certain amount of hubris involved when some Americans, most of whom probably have no experience with Lebanon, the Middle East, democratization, liberation movements, and so forth, feel that they can discuss with any authority what people halfway around the world should do?

Posted by: The Commenter at April 27, 2005 10:47 AM

“Isn't there a certain amount of hubris involved when some Americans, most of whom probably have no experience with Lebanon, the Middle East, democratization, liberation movements, and so forth, feel that they can discuss with any authority what people halfway around the world should do?”

Shucks, are you perhaps referring to me? I personally plead innocent to the charges. Any advice I offer is well thought out and realistic. Are you perhaps hinting that the Lebanese pro-democracy activists should not get their message out to the citizens of the United States and other supportive nations? I guess I should go out and start a fight with Mike Tyson so that I can get the hubris knocked out me. Would that work?

Posted by: David Thomson at April 27, 2005 12:03 PM

Any advice I offer is well thought out and realistic.

Everyone thinks their own advice is well thought out and realistic, David, it's why they give it. It's a tautology that people don't give advice if they think it poorly thought out and unrealistic.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at April 27, 2005 12:51 PM

It's a tautology that people don't give advice if they think it poorly thought out and unrealistic.--DPU

Speak for yourself,my friend.

Posted by: dougf at April 27, 2005 03:15 PM

Reading my last post I think I forgot to add a

:-)

So consider it added.

Posted by: dougf at April 27, 2005 03:17 PM

"go?" >> into politics. Into media, especially news.
And into business. Preferably try to start some specifically Muslim-Christian businesses, that do ordinary things. Like assembling and distributing Lebanon computers (is Cedar comp still available for trademark?), some with Windows, some with Linux.

Spread Skype for free voice over internet. Teach/ learn English -- invite Brits, Aussies, Yanks to come teach English for free room.

Tourism will be a big plus; plus construction makes Lebanon nicer for Lebanese, too.

Posted by: Tom Grey - Liberty Dad at April 27, 2005 05:55 PM

Commenter -
You must have taken my advice and cheered up considerably, because now you're back to making sacrosanct comments again.

I wonder would that also include lost kids from Seattle who have river to sea buttons and sign up to go to Gaza and hang out with the most irredentist and rejectionist "militarist" groups there? taunt Israeli soldiers trying to ferrit out kids with suicide bombs on them and smuggling tunnels used to bring in rockets, bombs and machine guns?
OR would that also include movie stars like Sean Penn who fly to Iraq so that Iraqi taxi drivers ask on the way back to Jordan how much Saddam paid them to come and protect him?

Nahhhhhhhhhh... I think you only meant people who support the Lebanese and Iranian non violent democracy movmements?

Yeah, that's it.....

Now seriously try my pick up line for you and you might have a bit more luck next time, after all, you are the COMMENTER.

Mike

Posted by: Mike at April 28, 2005 07:05 AM

Actually, Mike, what I said applies equally to them. Despite the fact that you automatically attribute partisan hypocrisy to be because I'm a liberal, I say what I say not because I dislike conservatism (which I do), but because I dislike hubris and bullshit.

Though I don't doubt that all people who feel they can make authoritative decisions for people about whom they know nothing have their hearts in the right places, that doesn't stop them from demonstrating hubris.

Let's face it, the average American knows little about the rest of the world (and this applies to people everywhere, not just Americans - it just somtimes seems that we, myself included, are the ones who most frequently feel that we know best for everyone in the world). The average American who takes an interest in international affairs doesn't seem to be pursuing a degree in international relations or read Foreign Affairs regularly. Instead, they get opinion journalism from blogs or read a Time article on the Druze and consider themselves such experts that they can, with credibility, tell a person in Lebanon what they should do in order to pursue democratization.

Sorry, you can't do that, I can't do that. It's an interesting exercise, but it's also valuable to recognize that we are essentially pissing into the wind, because a) most Lebanese will not read what you write, b) any Lebanese who does read it will probably laugh at the idea that an American sitting at a computer knows better than a Lebanese actually working to liberate their country from foreign domination and domestic extremism (because we're so familiar with that, right? We all have experience with that, right), and c) no Lebanese should turn to us for advice, because, like most movements such as this, it is infinitely more valuable for these people to achieve this for themselves.

For the record, no matter how interesting and informative Mr. Totten's reporting from Lebanon is, reading it does not make you an expert, a scholar, a talking head, nothing.

And Mike, since I've been sarcastic in these comments before, it's not like I can be critical. But honestly, I never said anything, ever, that would suggest that I like Sean Penn, in any way. You assumed that, I don't know why, maybe because of some tiny little frame through which you view everything, maybe because you assume that all liberals love Sean Penn and everything he says and does, and so forth. But since our last discussion ended with you suggesting that the Basque have a moral right to expel the Poles from Poland, I'm not sure if I want to descend into this again.

Posted by: The Commenter at April 28, 2005 08:27 AM

Commenter - Americans can offer suggestions to the Lebanese and they can take it or leave it. That's what free speech is all about, and it's a wonderful thing.

Americans don't know everything there is to know about Lebanon, but we do have an unfortunate wealth of knowledge about how our media works. Any advice about pubic relations and the merits of CNN vs. Fox, MTV vs. Jon Stewart, etc. is based on years of experience.

Posted by: mary at April 28, 2005 09:30 AM

Mary,

I believe that there has been some confusion as to what I meant when I wrote my original post.

I do not mean that we cannot, literally, say or write the words, or that the Lebanese cannot listen to and accept advice.

What I do mean is this: if you have to change a flat tire, will you listen to your mechanic's advice, or your friend from New York City who hasn't driven in a car more than 5 times in his life, much less changed a flat?

Does the fact that he's seen the movie Christine and read an article in Popular Mechanic change your mind?

Posted by: The Commenter at April 28, 2005 09:44 AM

Let's face it, the average American knows little about the rest of the world

Let's be honest, Americans are a bunch of ignorant retards - sounds like ace.mu.nu :-). I guess I don't see how someone pursuing a degree in international relations or one that reads essays on ForeignAffairs.org is any more an expert on democratizing Lebanon than anyone else. What's the difference between reading Foriegn Affairs and reading Belmont Club, Instapundit, Roger Simon, or any other decent blog?

So, according to you Commenter, only "experts" should be giving advice. I'm glad our Founding Fathers didn't see it that way. The Iroquois gave the colonists lots of advice, much of it unsolicited for years, and it did have an impact on the colonists and on the formation of the US government. The Iroquois didn't understand European history, or the Christian faith, etc., but they presented a lot of good ideas about governing, some of which were adopted. But I guess you would have said that the Iroqouis should have shut up and kept to themselves since they were not "experts" on the colonists or democracy.

I would bet that there are Lebanese who do read this and other blogs to search for ideas and perspectives. Who knows, maybe something Totten or Mary or Jerome writes will help to inspire and motivate some of the people in the tent city.

Posted by: markytom at April 28, 2005 12:51 PM

markytom,

Generally, and I stress generally, but generally, someone studying other countries is going to have a greater knowledge of those countries than one who does not study those countries.

Engineers tend to know more about engineering, boxers tend to know more about boxing, and so on. As for American knowledge of the rest of the world (which, if you recall, I said also applies to the rest of the world) is painfully limited beyond a fairly small segment of society. Of those who are interested, most have a layman's knowledge, the sort of thing you'd get from, say, Roger Simon or Instapundit.

Setting aside my opinion the intelligence, analytical ability, or political bias of those blogs you listed, the difference is this: Foreign Affairs (as an example, not as a template) is written by actual people with actual knowledge of foreign affairs.

That is: those people are scholars who have studied those countries, people who have pursued advanced degrees, and most importantly, people who have traveled to and lived in those countries, people who speak the language and have actually met people from those countries, and people who actually practice foreign affairs (diplomats, politicians, and so forth).

Instapundit, Simon, Belmont, and so forth, contribute by taking what someone else has written - a journalist, a practitioner of foreign affairs - and giving their opinion.

I, too, could play this game. I have a layman's interest in science, and though I was once an engineering student for a time, I haven't been for years. I am well versed in popularized science, that is, science written about in Scientific American or Popular Science. Sometimes, I watch the Discovery Channel. In the Glorious Age of the Blog, I have every right to start a blog of my own and offer my keen analysis and insight to scientists around the world. And this advice would most likely be totally useless to anyone interested in doing actual science.

Likewise, we can all offer advice, and the Lebanese are free to take it. What I pointed out was that the whole sentiment of concocting and offering advice to them involves an incredible act of arrogance:

We, as comfortable Americans, have little or noexperience with Lebanon, its people, culture, geography; with the Middle East, with foreign occupation, with democratization, with liberation movements, with mass demonstrations that bring about changes in government, and so forth.

Yet we feel that we know well, perhaps better than they do, what they should do next. Furthermore, a lot of the advice has so much to do with America: American media, American teachers, America America America. Not only do we give advice, but we give it through the framework of America.

I imagine that if the Lebanese knew that some Americans sitting in comfortable chairs in comfortable offices were expounding on What They Must Do to change their government, their culture, their country, they would laugh. They'd be right to do so.

But what I love most is the notion that an American blogger - and not, I don't know, say, a national hero? The people around them? Heroes of democracy thoughout history (go ahead and check - most countries have them!)? - will be the one to inspire these people. Can't we give foreigners credit for their own achievements, or do we have to assume that a) all freedom comes from America, and b) a random American with a blog knows better than they do?

Posted by: The Commenter at April 28, 2005 01:22 PM

Commenter - I agree with much of what you say - I guess it's more the tone of negativety and declaring advice from nearly all Americans as useless that I dislike. Anyway, most of the blogs end up linking to MSM or Foreign Affairs-type articles in the end, the source information is usually the same (unless it's personal accounts such as Totten's).

People are irrational by nature. Many times in history it isn't the experts giving advice to the right people at the right time that causes the best events to occur. Michael Totten may have more influence on the Lebanese democratic movement than all the writers for Foreign Affairs just for the fact that he is there. Michael may not be an expert but he may be very inspiring to the young people in the tent city. I wouldn't dismiss it as not having any impact. Same for his blog. As for others offering advice - I don't know that it's arrogance in every case. Actually, I don't think there are any experts you could find to describe the optimal way to democratize Lebanon. And sometimes the best ideas do come from laymen (or children even).

Different subject but this is one of the best paragraphs you've written on this blog:
Political identities really have moved past parties and have moved on to brands - people subsume a party's identity into their own, so that an attack on the party is an attack on them, while the party's successes are their own. Maybe a little detatchment, a little objectivity, a little self-reflection is in order.

Posted by: markytom at April 28, 2005 01:56 PM

I imagine that if the Lebanese knew that some Americans sitting in comfortable chairs in comfortable offices were expounding on What They Must Do to change their government, their culture, their country, they would laugh. They'd be right to do so.

Imagine if the Americans knew that Europeans and Canadians, sitting in comfortable chairs bloviating about What Americans Must Do to change their government...

Wait a minute, we do know, and we laugh about it all the time.

Bloviating Euros and Canadians inspired me to blog, and it probably inspired a lot of other bloggers. If bloviating yanks inspire more Lebanese bloggers, that can only be a good thing.

Posted by: mary at April 28, 2005 03:32 PM

Imagine if the Americans knew that Europeans and Canadians, sitting in comfortable chairs bloviating about What Americans Must Do to change their government...

Wait a minute, we do know, and we laugh about it all the time.

Sigh.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at April 28, 2005 04:25 PM

Commenter, what Leftists need to know, and it doesn't seem to come from study, is when to fight against evil. They didn't want to fight against evil commies in Vietnam. They didn't want to fight against evil Hutus in Rwanda. They DID, to their credit, allow Clinton to fight against evil Serb murderers, after a massacre (in a UN safe area).

(The Reps often don't want to spend the cash/ tax dollars to fight.) Lebanese are likely to have their opinions split on when it is worth fighting, and against what, and for what. True principles are universal. That's the point of Universal Human Rights.

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