December 28, 2004

Worse Than (Our) Vietnam

The number of people killed by the South Asian tsunami will likely exceed the number of Americans killed in the Vietnam War. The AP reports the casualty count has now passed 52,000. And it is going to be a lot worse.

The ministry statement said this figure did not include data from districts on Sumatra's hard-hit western coast, including the town of Meulaboh — meaning that the final death toll will almost certainly rise significantly. Earlier, the country's national disaster director, Purnomo Sidik, said 10,000 people were killed in Meulaboh alone.
Posted by Michael J. Totten at December 28, 2004 12:44 PM
Comments

No matter how powerful and all-knowing we humans try to be... we are but ants in the scheme of things. When Mother Nature shifts her shoulders, we can but hang on and hope she settles down soon.

Posted by: Ratatosk at December 28, 2004 12:51 PM

While understanding your earlier posted premise about death by premeditated human act versus death by natural disaster, it is hard for me to accept that this tragedy is not worse than what has happened in Iraq over the past couple of years.

And Mr. Tosk has it exactly right. Perhaps the difference is that while we are completely at the mercy of natural events, we can mitigate the risk of death at the hands of our fellow humans - or so we like to think.

It is a very bad day in paradise. :(

Posted by: too many steves at December 28, 2004 01:29 PM

Sadly, I think things are only going to get worse for a while. The affected countries don't have great health care infrastructure, so the likelihood of thousands of additional (preventable) deaths from disease and infection is looming. I hope it can be averted.

Posted by: Stuart at December 28, 2004 03:33 PM

Death has only begun to have his way. Famine and Disease will follow, they always do. He never has his fill.

Posted by: FH at December 28, 2004 04:09 PM

It is my tentative understanding that a warning system costing no more than $14,000,000 could have saved thousands of lives. If this is indeed accurate---then it shows how little the governments in that part of the world value human life.

Posted by: David Thomson at December 28, 2004 04:42 PM

David, David, David,

It is an unfortunate fact of life that we learn most from bad experience. Positive reinforcement be damned. Now there will be some movement in the direction of preparedness, but without reminders, the learning will soon be forgotten.

However, I do expect that recovery efforts will be hampered by corruption and self serving posturing by local politicos. Likewise, perhaps nothing will come of any talk of warning systems. Northern European protestant virtues do have their use.

Posted by: chuck at December 28, 2004 05:13 PM

The number of people killed by the South Asian tsunami will likely exceed the number of Americans killed in the Vietnam War.

I wonder if the death toll will exceed the number of Vietnamese civilians killed by the US in eventual defeat? I hope not.

South Vietnamese civilians
250,000 (Olson)
287,000 (Clodfelter = 247,600 war deaths + 38,954 assassinated by NLF)
300,000 (Kutler; Summers)
340,000 (Lewy's estimate, with the possibility that an additional 222,000 counted as VC (above) belong in this category)
430,000 (The Sen. E. Kennedy Commission, according to Lewy, Olson)
522,000 (Wallechinsky*)
1,000,000 (Britannica [in both North and South]; Eckhardt; Grenville*)
2,000,000 (Tucker*, Official VN* [N&S, 1954-75],)
[MEDIAN: starred*: ca. 1,500,000. unstarred: 300,000]

North Vietnamese civilians: 65,000 (Kutler, Lewy, Olson, Summers, Wallechinsky) by American bombing.

An asterisk(*) indicates that the number seems to cover the entire conflict rather than just the American Phase.

From Matthew White

Posted by: Benjamin at December 28, 2004 06:14 PM

It is my tentative understanding that a warning system costing no more than $14,000,000 could have saved thousands of lives. If this is indeed accurate---then it shows how little the governments in that part of the world value human life.

Er... no, that is an unacceptable conclusion.

Search for more realistic explanations which are admittedly more prosaic.

One obvious one is that such dramatic events are rare in that ocean, despite the fact there is an active fault in the area (Indo-Australian Plate and the Eurasian Plate.)

There is a warning system in the Pacific associated as it is with the Ring of Fire around the Pacific Plate especially around Japan etc. "Tsunami" is from a Japanese word. But that is because Tsunamis are generated more often from that system of plate tectonics, rather than just west of Indonesia.

But as with people across the world, action is often taken after the event, so if an early warning system is installed now, I would not put it down to govts in the local area having a particularly low value placed on human life. More a general condition of the human race.

Posted by: Benjamin at December 28, 2004 06:31 PM

Read the comments to wizbangs post Tsunami Warning Was Stopped to see people in Hawaii reacted to tsunami warnings.

Posted by: chuck at December 29, 2004 12:06 AM

I don't think we're going to get a grip on the numbers killed by this disaster ever. This morning I see that the toll is now calculated to be above 65,000. And its far from clear that all the devestated areas have even been surveyed yet.

It keeps growing and growing.

I don't think any of these governments actually have any decent way to tell how many people are dead (and missing), and they're currently pulling numbers out of their collective asses.

Posted by: Eric Blair at December 29, 2004 06:29 AM

PERSPECTIVE....

Darfur, Sudan: More than 200,000 Sudanese refugees have fled across the border into Chad. More than a million people have been displaced, between 50,000 and 100,000 murdered. Most are black Christians, assalted by lighter-skinnned Muslims.

Barely a peep from the UN...nothing from the so-called humanitarian, internationalist Left.

Perspective.

Posted by: Perpective at December 29, 2004 08:29 AM

"...nothing from the so-called humanitarian, internationalist Left.

1. False.
2. Smug.

Posted by: David Sucher at December 29, 2004 08:44 AM

"Perspective" -- You spout nonsense. I get most of my information, much more than 'a peep', about the Darfur genocide from Dissent and from the New York Review of Books, two of the best periodicals in America, and probably the two main American organs of what you called the "so-called humanitarian, internationalist Left."

Regarding the tsunami, the initial U.S. aid offer of $15 million in assistance was indeed stingy, and Bush's decision to wait three days to make a satement on the tragedy was embarrasing. As was his petulant respnse this morning, when he finally did deign to speak, to the very justified world criticism on his administration's initial offer. This guy never misses an opportunity to be jerk.

Some interesting facts about U.S. foreign aid, noted by CNN:

"'The 0.2 percent of U.S. gross national product represented by foreign aid obligations the past two years, however, is among the smallest amounts in the last half-century. The United States is the largest international economic aid donor in dollar terms but is the smallest contributor among the major donor governments when calculated as a percent of gross national income,' said the report, which is posted on the U.S. State Department's Web site."

Posted by: Markus Ros at December 29, 2004 10:18 AM

The question, Markus, is what do you want to do with the facts and figures you glean from "two of the best periodicals in America".

You've really encapsulated the problem with the "ain't that a shame" Left with this one comment. You think you know more, you think you're morally superior, yet when confronted by the (utterly intentional) horror of 200,000 refugees your indignation is redirected to the supposed stinginess of the US initial response to an utterly unforseeable natural catastrophe.

And of course you throw in the obligatory insult of Bush.

Posted by: Mark Poling at December 29, 2004 10:43 AM

Barely a peep from the UN...nothing from the so-called humanitarian, internationalist Left.

Except that a simple googling of the Sudan crisis will show that the "international left" has been carping on about the Sudan since the late 90's.

Just like the "international left" was complaining about human rights violations in Afghanistan and Iraq long before it became a casus belli for the hawkish right.

Posts like that confirm my suspicions that many rightwingers don't give a damn about human rights except in situations where they can use it as a partisan club against their favourite strawman.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 29, 2004 10:45 AM

Mark: The question, Markus, is what do you want to do with the facts and figures you glean from "two of the best periodicals in America".

Which of course demands the following question:

What are YOU doing about the Suddan crisis, Mark?

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 29, 2004 10:47 AM

Nothing DPU, except pointing out that all the tried-and-true methods espoused by the "ain't that a shame" Left have never worked. The "world community" and the "United Nations" will not stop what's happening in the Sudan.

Nothing, except beating the drum that the use of military force can lead to a better world for everyone. (The refugees in the Sudan would probably love to be living under American occupation in their own homes right now. Question for you anti-interventionists: how many Iraqi refugees are streaming into Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, etc. right now?)

Nothing, except calling people on their cookie-cutter political analyses. (Call it the Vietnam Model. You did note earlier that little body count comment earlier. Oddly enough, the flip side of that list rarely gets presented. Cambodia's Killing Fields are just hard to blame on the U.S., although I have seen it attempted.)

I'm not doing jack shit about the Sudan, except to say that as long as we stick to the tried-and-true paradigms apparently so loved by the "ain't that a shame" Left, these things will keep on keepin' on.

The real shame is you seem to be good with that, as long as "the best periodicals" keep reporting the stories with the appropriate righteous rage.

Posted by: Mark Poling at December 29, 2004 11:06 AM

Mark: Nothing DPU, except pointing out that all the tried-and-true methods espoused by the "ain't that a shame" Left have never worked.

South Africa. East Timor. The Vietnam War. Civil Rights.

Nothing, except beating the drum that the use of military force can lead to a better world for everyone.

No arguemtn from me. What does that have to do with the Sudan?

I'm not doing jack shit about the Sudan...

Then isn't the finger-pointing a little out of place?

The real shame is you seem to be good with that, as long as "the best periodicals" keep reporting the stories with the appropriate righteous rage.

1. Markus was pointing out these periodicals as evidence that the left had not been, as had been falsey stated, slient on the crisis.
2. You're implying that simpley reporting on the situation is good enough for Markus, which is simply making shit up.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 29, 2004 11:17 AM

The 0.2 percent of U.S. gross national product represented by foreign aid obligations the past two years,

This is about 1/6 of total charitable giving in the US. I don't know how much of the total goes overseas. I also seem to recall that much of the EU contributions tend to leak away into European hands. And let's not forget US defense spending, which certainly contributes to keeping the pirates down in the region, a role once fullfilled by Britain. I know that from the socialist perspective only government counts, but that's not how the US operates.

Posted by: chuck at December 29, 2004 11:18 AM

This link has an interesting take from a US diplomat in the region. I suspect his disdain for the UN and EU efforts is completely justified.

Posted by: chuck at December 29, 2004 11:35 AM

I think its utterly silly to argue about how much of OUR money the government is giving to X Y or Z country, refugees or survivors. It's nice to be charitable, but I really don't believe that to be the position of the federal government.

http://y2kchaos.entrewave.com/view/y2kchaos/s35p643.htm

Posted by: Ratatosk at December 29, 2004 11:36 AM

Who said I was ever right-wing, dipshitplusone?

But comments like yours make "right-wing" into a badge of honor. So thanks.

Posted by: Perspective at December 29, 2004 11:48 AM

DPU:

South Africa. East Timor. The Vietnam War. Civil Rights.

And these are models for dealing with the Sudan? Mind boggling.

South Africa: a westernized, industrialized, country with a developed infrastructure and an at-the-roots liberal tradition.

East Timor: the United Nation's poster child. Tiny population, physically isolated, steeped in liberal traditions. (Nine days after it declared independence from Portugal, East Timor was invaded by Indonesia. In hindsight, maybe not the smartest move.)

Vietnam: you really want to hold that up as a win for the left?

Civil rights: "We shall overcome" as a way to prevent ethnic cleansing. Unbelievable.

What should happen in the Sudan, and won't, is that the United Nations should declare the situation unsalvagable, authorize the dissolution of the country's government by force, authorize the occupation of the country by a U.N. member capable of maintaining order until a democratic, classically liberal government can be established and stabilized.

I'm afraid this prescription would make the "ain't that a shame" crowd's collective skin crawl. But I honestly believe that it would be in the best interest of the Sudanese, and in the best interest of the people of Africa. And of course it isn't going to happen, not least because classically liberal governments scare the bejesus out of too many U.N. member nations.

I don't think I'm being unfair to Markus. He's the one defending the collective honor of "the best periodicals." Both of you are probably fans of Harper's Magazine, right? Well, if you don't find the equation of "Neocons" to the Khmer Rouge appalling, you have in fact lost perspective.

Which is where this whole rant started, I think.

Posted by: Mark Poling at December 29, 2004 11:52 AM

Here is a link for those who would like to get some sense of the ongoing relief effort in the region (via Tim Blair). It makes all this bitching about who is doing what look somewhat silly.

Posted by: chuck at December 29, 2004 12:16 PM

Mark Poling --
1..Like other members of the "humanitarian, internationalist Left", I'd agree with you that "the use of military force can lead to a better world for everyone." I also support the use of military force in the Sudan. As I used to argue with HA before he was banned on this blog, enforcing what should be universal standards of human rights is more important than respecting national sovereignty, especially when the rulers of those nations came to power through bullets rather than ballots.

2. Harper's has published some good articles, and some stupid ones. I'd put the Naomi Klein in between both catagories. One point she DID make there that should have been well-taken is the utter stupidity and the terrible consequences of the attempt to turn Iraq into some sort of "free-market" utopia, complete with instant privatization of state industries and a flat tax. I think even Bill Kristol would admit that was a disaster.

3. I don't understand your point about how "leftist moral superiority" is annoying. I hear this repeadely from conservatives. I assume you believe in the viewpoints you espouse, which in some cases are diametrically opposed to mine. Doesn't that make you morally and intellectually superior to me?

Posted by: Markus Rose at December 29, 2004 01:17 PM

Markus, if we can agree on point 1, then we're not that far apart on the other issues, I think.

As to Harpers et. al., the problem with them is I simply don't have time to separate the wheat from the chaff. Sometimes Harpers sheds light on things that are seriously underreported elsewhere. (For instance, the horrors of oil industry practices in Nigeria.) But too often it slips into sheer self-righteous propogandization, and in then end I decided I couldn't be bothered to re-subscribe.

I think the irritation with the Left's assumption of moral superiority is with how many seem to feel it is achieved. That is, by simply being on the Left. Michael Moore and Dan Rather come to mind. Forgeries and fabrications are okay as long as they're fundamentally true. The corollary of that attitude is that being on the "Right" is inherently evil; any fact raised the "Right" is inherently tainted. The "Christmas in Cambodia" debunking was pushed by the "Right" and was therefore fundamentally false, even though the Right had facts on their side.

Don't get me wrong, elements of the Right do this too, and it's why both labels bother me. The biggest trouble I (and I think a lot of people) have with the idea of inherent grace is that the Left is supposed to know better. Classic Liberalism was built on the primacy of data and experience, as opposed to static truths delivered by superiors to inferiors. When Jerry Falwell says the Towers fell because America isn't Right With God, that's really irritating but what do you expect? When Noam Chomsky says the same thing, but instead of invoking God invokes the Historical Dialectic (or whatever) his blather should generate the the same or greater level of rage from reasonable Lefties.

But it doesn't seem to do so.

Posted by: Mark Poling at December 29, 2004 02:42 PM

I'm afraid this prescription would make the "ain't that a shame" crowd's collective skin crawl. But I honestly believe that it would be in the best interest of the Sudanese, and in the best interest of the people of Africa. And of course it isn't going to happen, not least because classically liberal governments scare the bejesus out of too many U.N. member nations.

I, too, agree that military intervention is the way to go in the Sudan. I also supported military intervention in Yugoslavia and Afghanistan, like many members of the left. But you were making a strawman argument with Markus, which is what I was pointing out.

As for the examples I pointed out, if you want to pick them apart on a case-by-case basis, be my guest. I was pointing out that there have been cases where non-military action has had an effect.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at December 29, 2004 02:49 PM

The US's initial offer of 15 million was an insult to the internatiuonal community, and to the Tsumani victims.

Criticised worldwide, they increased the pledge but the fact that its almost equalled by the UK's intitial offer of nearly 30 million speaks volumes, considering the UK is a much smaller economy.

These tragedies are very revealing.

Posted by: Benjamin at December 29, 2004 03:33 PM

These tragedies are very revealing.

Thank you, Benjamin. I think so too.

Posted by: chuck at December 29, 2004 03:55 PM

Actually I was being a little unfair.

The US is now pulling its finger out, from what I hear on the latest news.

However, the initial low pledge was a bit daft, IMO.

Posted by: Benjamin at December 29, 2004 04:08 PM

Just got an email from an American, outlining his work.

My reply:

I am sorry, I was being unfair.

I did not mean to denigrate the real generosity of American individuals.

You are doing good work.

Best wishes,

Benjamin

Posted by: Benjamin at December 29, 2004 04:12 PM

However, the US govt must be held to its pledges. I guess its up to the American people especially to put pressure on the US govt to follow through.

Posted by: Benjamin at December 29, 2004 04:14 PM

However, the US govt must be held to its pledges.

Slippery little devils, aren't we? What would we do without your pristine morality to keep us straight? Yes, your job as judge of the world is surely the most important and difficult job in these trying times.

Posted by: chuck at December 29, 2004 05:10 PM

Chuck

I realised I was being too judgmental and I apologised. I was not criticising individual Americans, but rather the US govt for its initial inadequate offer. And the US govt needs to be scrutinized to make sure it follows through with its pledges, as do other govts.

Just to put things straight the American who emailed me was not responding to my criticisms it turns out, anyway. He was responding to my much earlier post appealing for people to give money, and wanted to simply say what he was doing, which was good.

Money is indeed the issue right now. Both aid agencies and the Indian govt say that what they need is dosh. For the most part, materials and supplies are not in short supply, and often can be bought locally - but money is simply need to buy them and establish the infrastructure.

Posted by: Benjamin at December 29, 2004 05:25 PM

Where the fuck is France?

Posted by: d-rod at December 29, 2004 05:30 PM

Benjamin,

Apology accepted. But please remember that the US government represents us, the individual American citizen. We the people and all that.

Posted by: chuck at December 29, 2004 05:30 PM

Chuck

I am always falling foul of that particular cultural difference!

I am a Brit who does not identify much with the British govt. I think it's a general difference that that Brits don't identify so much in such a personal manner with their govt or Prime Minister compared to the Americans who do with their govt and President.

When people slag off the Prime Minister and the British govt people might defend it, yes, but don't feel so personally about it.

All this stems from historical, constitutional differences etc.

Posted by: Benjamin at December 29, 2004 05:45 PM

Benjamin,
You are apparently unfamiliar with the way the US government works so I will forgive you for your misunderstandings. Congress controlls the purse strings for the federal government. An agency such as the DoD can't spend any money except on what Congress decides. Apparently, the federal agency in charge of responding to disasters such as the South Asian tsunami only had a $35 million left in the appropriate budget. And it is apparently spending all that on the tsunami. I hope Congress appropriates more when the get back in session

Posted by: RSwan at December 29, 2004 08:39 PM

R Swan

Yes, thankyou, I suppose that is the basic idea.
However one still needs to ask the question as to why the US govt offered such a low figure initially.

As regards wider politics the US has an opportunity. Indonesia is a nearly 90% Muslim country and whilst helping out people there, it can try to build bridges with Muslims there too, by being generous and forthcoming with its aid and assistance and encouraging longer term links.

Posted by: Benjamin at December 29, 2004 09:32 PM

Benjamin,

Here is another clarification posted on the top thread. And frankly, I am getting peeved at all this stingy business. We saved Europe from starvation twice and the USSR once. We have financed the success of China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan by our trade policies. India is starting to follow the same route. All I see on the European continent are smug little folks who can't really be bothered to do anything, and don't have the ships and aircraft to really help if they wanted to. Us cowboy types aren't much impressed by big talk and little action. Just want you to know how things look from over here.

Posted by: chuck at December 29, 2004 10:55 PM

Chuck

Er... okay, fair enough. I can understand why you feel like that. But just remember there are two sides to the story. But anyway, in the spirit of Christmas, the New Year and all that I will refrain from exchanging stereotypes!

Thanks for the Powell link, anyway. One of the better guys in the Bush administration, although he's leaving soon.

Posted by: Benjamin at December 30, 2004 01:43 AM

Benjamin,

Some more commentary that captures my point of view, link. In the end, you will find that the US will have done the most.

Posted by: chuck at December 30, 2004 09:20 AM

Two of my favorite countries have shown the world what real leadership is. Britian has pledged $96 million. Sweden has pledged $75 million.

Today's Washington Post points out that the initial $15 million pledged by Bush was equivilent to what we spend in Iraq EVERY THREE HOURS. At $35 million, we are up to spending what we do every seven hours in Iraq.

Yes, Congress must appropriate the funds, but Bush's refusal to take the lead on this by announcing that he WILL ask for more money as soon as Congress reconvenes is embarrasing.

And yes, many, many private American citizens ARE very generous. But the total amount raised by these INDIVIDUALS is still less than the U.S. government pledge.

Posted by: Markus Rose at December 30, 2004 10:32 AM

Markus,

There are about 1.4 million US charities and they collect about $240 billion a year. For comparison, Sweden has population of about 9 million and a GNP of $240 billion. This is not to denigrate Sweden, but frankly they just don't have the resources. How many C-130's do they have flying in? How many ships and search planes in the area? How many doctors and medical facilities? How many water purification plants? There are advantages to being big and having a Navy in the area. The money is pledged, but is it spent? This is what I turn up on google:

SWEDEN: Sweden sent two communications specialists to help U.N. relief efforts in Sri Lanka, and said it was sending tents and communications equipment to the Maldives. The Swedish Red Cross said it would contribute $750,000 to the global IFRC appeal.

So it goes.

Posted by: chuck at December 30, 2004 11:33 AM

We gave $2.4 billion through the government last year 40 percent of total contributions by all countries, and an additional $5 billion by individuals.

France has pledged 20 million to this disaster so far and they couldn't move a Navy ship out of dock? China nothing. The Arab League? Don't even ask. How embarrassing.

Bush did more in the first hours by moving some Navy ships around than most of the rest of the world will do combined.

Posted by: d-rod at December 30, 2004 11:35 AM

I really do wish that people would discuss the US military assistance, which is more or less required for any aid to be of much use at all. Maybe if Bush had gotten up the first day and said, "We are redeploying our naval forces in the region to assist with the transportation of supplies, etc," instead of waiting three days and announcing some parsimonious result, we Americans wouldn't look like we were miserly jerks.

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Posted by: huojia at November 14, 2007 06:21 PM
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