Michael J. Totten: Way Outside the Box

October 14, 2004

Way Outside the Box

I love outside-the-box political thinking whether I agree with it or not. It's interesting at the very least. Listening to James Carville and Sean Hannity doesn't exactly broaden my thinking or sharpen my mind.

In that spirit I just have to link to this post on Winds of Change by Cicero. He's quoting Gonzalo Rodriguez from the comments section. Gonzalo hopes John Kerry wins the election. And yet he's voting for George W. Bush. Read the whole piece to find out why. It is not even remotely related to anything I wrote in my hawkish case for John Kerry.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at October 14, 2004 02:02 PM

Comments

I didn't perceive this as outside the box when I read/wrote it at WoC. I've gotten a fair number of emails from like-minded folks who are stuck in the middle. It's a relief to know I'm not alone. Feh.

Part of the reason why your friendly blogger Cicero uses an assumed name is because I would pay such a high price for attaching my face to my honest opinions that I think I would have to move to the Alleutians. Which is sad, because it illustrates the polarity of our society in 2004.

Thanks for your trackback. I enjoy your musings on TCS.

Do you know what became of Lee Harris? He went missing on TCS. I was corresponding with him and poof.

CICERO The Lesser

Posted by: Marcus Cicero at October 14, 2004 02:35 PM

I (surpise,surprise !!),did not like the 'argument'presented in this linked posting.It seems to me that he was saying ---'hey,most of my fellow Kerry types out here are seriously delusional,man,and if they don't get their way,they're going to lose it,SO I am going to cast a meaningless vote for the 'man',just so if (god forbid) he wins,the popular vote canard will not the the last impetus to send my friends dashing over the cliff.'
Great.Is it too much to ask that maybe another legitimate way of looking at the situaion is--- 'Hey,my 'political'friends are becoming unhinged and I am scared of them.Maybe,the causes I support are not as pristine as I had once believed.Maybe,I should reconsider some important facets as it appears my 'side'is backed by a somewhat thuggish and fanatic crew
I just can't abide APPEASEMENT,which is what,for me,also made your 'Case for Kerry'unappealing.

Posted by: dougf at October 14, 2004 02:42 PM

The reasons Gonzalo gives for wanting a Kerry victory (that Libs have slipped into psychosis) is the very reason I want Bush to win. Like Dougf, I don't believe in appeasing the worst instincts and elements of society.

Posted by: David at October 14, 2004 03:10 PM

Cicero: Do you know what became of Lee Harris? He went missing on TCS.

I don't know. He was the best at TCS. I miss his work. I hope he's okay.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at October 14, 2004 03:35 PM

I have similar concerns, but going the other way. Lets say Kerry wins a close election. Our troops would be out of Iraq in a year or two and Iraq embroiled in a civil war. What will our Iraq II vets think?

They'll see voter fraud, F 9-11, the MSM openly biased against Bush. First, the dems and the MSM took away their victory (a victory that ranks in the top 1 percent historically). Next, the dems and the MSM will devalue the lives lost by withdrawing our troops quickly.

These vets will see business as usual at the universities, bathouses, and luxury car dealerships and wonder why the liberals stabbed them in the back. They'll wonder why such, feckless, effete, wealthy people declared war on the christian, hetero middle-class. They may well react in a way that isn't in anyone's interest.

Liberals getting violent is a joke, though my mom is almost 60 now and would be a prime target for groups of liberal ruffians. Anyone remember the tree hugger guy imprisoned in canada who went on a hunger strike because his veggies weren't organic enough for him?

Posted by: Raymond at October 14, 2004 04:33 PM

Whooaaa! Better to nip this stuff in the bud before we really do get some serious anarchy. If these bozo's get frisky after (not if) Bush wins, then let 'em, but no more stuff like the 60's (was there) when decent peaceful folk were too embarassed to react. I think the American society has been innoculated to this virus by previous exposure and will not tolerate another lost generation.

On the lighter side, this humor is out of the box:

Letters to the editor

Posted by: jdwill at October 14, 2004 04:40 PM

Funny, I'm voting for Kerry but a part of me is hoping Bush wins so Kerry won't have to take responsibility for the mess Bush has made.

Iraq: even the Green Zone is unsafe, and it's not the fault of the media, people. Bush invaded the place with a post-Saddam plan of little more than "be greeted as liberators." Anybody remember when the Pentagon planned to have troops down to 30,000 this summer? If Kerry wins, he'll face massive criticism on Iraq no matter what he does.

Budget -- the deficit is nearly a HALF-TRILLION next year (and our Congress just passed another $140 billion corporate tax cut). If Kerry honestly tries to deal with this mess, he'll get blamed for all the tax raises and spending cuts that are necessary to clean it up.

Posted by: Oberon at October 14, 2004 04:44 PM

I already voted for Senator Kerry this morning, and I think Senator Kerry will win the U.S. Presidency, but I hope that President Bush wins re-election.

That is, I hope that U.S. forces kill Usama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi by the end of this month, October. If that happens, you won't find me this Democrat complaining about an October surprise -- I'll be too busy rejoicing at America's success.

Posted by: Arjun at October 14, 2004 06:56 PM

I wonder how many people are voting for one candidate and hoping the other wins. It strikes me as remarkable. But given the other rationales I have witnessed people using, maybe it shouldn't. I guess Arjun is saying that the criteria for keeping Bush is success in the war. Perhaps one should take a longer view of success in the war, try BelmontClub.

Posted by: jdwill at October 14, 2004 07:24 PM

I'm glad to see Cicero getting his propers. He is writing some great stuff at his blog Between Hope and Fear. I think I'm smart enough to understand about half of it. Just remember, Cicero, some of us knew you when you used to be Tacitus...

Posted by: The Lapsed Randian at October 14, 2004 07:35 PM

What Dougf and David said. This is just rewarding bad behavior.

And should Kerry win, Raymond has a very good point. Does the term Freikorps ring a bell?

It isn't the Left in this country that owns guns. People should remember that.

Posted by: Eric Blair at October 14, 2004 07:43 PM

Michael,

I think I get where you and Cicero are coming from, I just don't agree with where you are. The prospect of dillitante academics taking up arms to resist the lawfully elected government does not fill me with dread. Actually it kind of fills me with humor.

The most effective anti-insurgent military in the world is who the revolutionary intellectuals would be rebelling against; and they do not have the tactics, training, discipline, logistical support, or coherence of goals to accomplish much more than self-immolation.

A lot of people would go to jail, and probably some particularly stupid schmucks would earn themselves a lethal injection for treason.

I have a lot more enthusiasm for experiencing this disturbance under the leadership of George W. Bush because he has already exhibited remarkable forbearance under pressure with regards to the Islamic community in the US and the world. I suspect that Kerry would get scared and over-react or under-react in ways that would get a lot more people killed. I do not think that a Kerry presidency would do more than allow the pressure of this kind of idiocy to build up. I would rather the idiots commit before they have more support.

Posted by: Patrick Lasswell at October 14, 2004 08:20 PM

Interesting piece. But the idea that the left in this country will turn violent and attempt to overthrow the democratic process is absolutely comical.

The whole argument belies its own conclusion. If this guy actually thinks the left is on the verge of rising up, he's far more delusional than those he attacks.

Posted by: harry at October 14, 2004 09:44 PM

Harry,

He's talking about extremists, obviously. I mean, he himself hopes Kerry beats Bush. In any case, I, too, will be shocked if any left-wing "insurgency" materializes for more than one day.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at October 14, 2004 10:04 PM

There is no chance for a Kerry landslide; there is a real chance for a Bush landslide, if enough Bush-sucks but Kerry is terrible folk go ahead and say -- let the Reps get stuck with the mess.

But in fact, neither the US, nor the world, is such a mess. It only seems that way when the ideal of Unreal Perfection is the expected standard. The huge deficit is caused by too much spending, not too little taxing -- neither side is talking spending cuts. Kerry's plan to increase taxes on the rich (the ones who create jobs) is guaranteed to increase unemployment, if passed.

Kerry is terrifying, or not, depending on your view of Iran, then terrorists, getting and using nukes -- or Israel's pre-emptive response to stop this.

If Kerry gets elected, I expect Israel to launch a strike on all Iranian nuke sites while lame-duck Bush is in office. So Bush can invade, get the blame but beat the mullahs, and let Kerry "clean up the mess" -- which may well be a lot easier to clean up with the evil BusHitler leaving.

You know, if there's not such a bid difference in the US between the two, then what Iran, Russia, China, Israel, and Iraq will do differently becomes more important. I can't see an elected Iraqi Pres. Allawi being very happy with Kerry, for instance. Again, too much Bush-hate obscures the discussion.

But the PC thought police already have too much power in America.

(Suddenly I have visions of the Reps in Congress cutting every single Pres. Kerry Dem spending item, and yelling and screaming about how Kerry promised to unite, not divide us, and how Kerry Lied; every judge being filibustered; another Newt like budget crisis shutting gov't down and the Reps only accepting spending cuts in Dem states, every crisis being blamed on Kerry and only pro-Rep policies being accepted, and constant, repetitive claiming that Kerry Lied about being a uniter, etc.. When Kerry says its the Congress' fault, the Reps say He's the Pres., He's the failure, He's unreasonable and won't compromise at the summit discussions ... doesn't sound so bad, actually. If only I wasn't terrified of Iranian nukes.)

Posted by: Tom Grey - Liberty Dad at October 15, 2004 01:41 AM

I think Rodriguez may be exaggerating just a touch if he's talking about faculty.

The hate-filled ideologues at my university gain self-satisfaction by thinking of themselves as "dissidents," and I know several who intend to bring anarchy if the election doesn't go the way they want.

Anarchy or the passive aggression of the tenured teenager? I also work at a university, and though we're science/engineering-oriented and thus have more ideological diversity, I'm catching some fever swap vibes here as well. But I honestly doubt that even the Berserkly folk will take up arms and smash things during a Bush win. I imagine the more idiotarian students may use it as an excuse to trash things, but the leadership will just pout and sulk and maybe accidentally-on-purpose loose the tenure requests, pending proposal budgets and other mission-critical paperwork from those faculty who they suspect voted for BushHitler/BushMoron/BushHalliburton -- even those who split their tickets like this Bush voter is going to do.

Posted by: Bill at October 15, 2004 08:44 AM

I've heard stranger reasons to vote for a particular party, but not by much.

Does anybody here genuinely believe that come December the US is going to see a full blown Iraq/Afghanistan/Wherever style insurgency by the supporters of the losing party? If some one said this about the upcoming Iraqi elections then, I'd agree with them. But the chances of this happening in the US are just ludicrously small.

Posted by: sam at October 15, 2004 08:44 AM

"If Kerry gets elected, I expect Israel to launch a strike on all Iranian nuke sites while lame-duck Bush is in office."

To be frank, I'm expecting something like this to happen over the next few years, no matter who wins the election.

Posted by: sam at October 15, 2004 08:46 AM

Sam: Does anybody here genuinely believe that come December the US is going to see a full blown Iraq/Afghanistan/Wherever style insurgency by the supporters of the losing party?

No.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at October 15, 2004 11:04 AM

Quoth Sam:

Does anybody here genuinely believe that come December the US is going to see a full blown Iraq/Afghanistan/Wherever style insurgency by the supporters of the losing party?

Well if Sam is the same Samuel living in a "house divided" (discussed in an earlier comment section) he may want to wait for the Mrs. to leave before showering in the morning, especially if they have a bath-and-a-half.

Sorry, I couldn't resist. I sympathize with Samuel's situation. But on a more serious note, I am somewhat concerned about some of the more underplayed resentment that could develop after even a major Bush win. Not a revolution, but rather, a lot of metaphorical potties being flushed while others are enjoying a nice warm shower on a cold winter's morning.

Posted by: Bill at October 15, 2004 12:36 PM

Some of my lefty friends who are rabid-anti-bushies simply plan on moving to Canada if Bush gets reelected, they've already been looking at property.

Personally, I think that there will be some sort of 'uprising' at some point here in the US. Probably not in December, but at some point (I'd guess) within the next 30 years.

America is two Americas, there is the Old America, bible reading, church going folk, who believe in government, social programs and the Protestant Work Ethic (You work to be paid, you get paid for the hours you work... you work hard for 40+ hours a week). The second America is the Young America. Young America has a lot less Bible reading, and those who read the bible aren't nearly as dogmatic about it being 'the word of god' or 'the only true path'. A very large minority of Young America are athiest or pagans.

Young America is selfish, its a stereotype, but it has truth to it. We, as a rule, want to do whatever it is that we want to do. Some of us, have begun to realize that the only way that we "get to do whatever we want to do" is if we let everyone else "do what they want to do".

Look at the under 35 crowd. How many of them are for a ban on gay marriage, drugs, abortion or anything else? They tend to be against any legislation that 'bans' anything (except guns). For the most part, there is a 'I'll do my thing, you do yours' type mentality. The new and popular work ethic that seems to be catching among GenXers is what some people call the 'hacker work ethic' (Which is basically, you work because you like the work you do, you get paid for doing the work you do, not for being at the office for 40 hours. MJT is currently living by this ethic, so am I.)

These two Americas may or may not be able to find a middle ground. There is a up and comming Anarchist movement, headed by the old ELF, which could try to exploit this generational shift.

What will happen? I don't know... but the interesting times are just begenning, in my opinion.

Please note that these are the musings of a Squirrel, none of this may in fact happen, but its what I see

Posted by: Ratatosk at October 15, 2004 02:15 PM

Some of my lefty friends who are rabid-anti-bushies simply plan on moving to Canada if Bush gets reelected, they've already been looking at property.

Oh please let this be so; but alas, I suspect these are just more empty promises.

I agree with the rest of your post. It's why I refer to the Left as the culture-destroying Left. It's why I'm no longer a Liberal, and why I believe the Lef should be opposed at every turn.

Posted by: David at October 15, 2004 02:57 PM

Patrick Laswell,

The prospect of dillitante academics taking up arms to resist the lawfully elected government does not fill me with dread. Actually it kind of fills me with humor.

Don't laugh. The dillitante academics will provide the socialist ideological justification for violence, but the domestic Islamists, union thugs, ANSWER Stalinists, anarchists, and the black and hispanic nationalists will be the ones engaging in the violence. I have no doubt that there are hundreds of thousands of people in this country who are willing, and even eager, to commit violence. They will have global support for their violence. And they aren't a bunch of candy-ass intellectuals. They are real mean, nasty bastards.

The threat of widespread left-wing political violence in this country should be taken VERY seriously. Americans were complacent about Islamic terrorists prior to 9/11 too. Some still are. If we don't take the very real threat of left-wing violence seriously, we will be in for a rude awakening. Failure to take the threat seriously is a "failure of imagination" and a willful refusal to "connect the dots", all based on wishful thinking.

Posted by: HA at October 16, 2004 03:59 AM

One more thing. The recent revelation that the Democrats will be screaming about voter intimidation regardless of whether any actual intimidation takes place is a good example of the Democratic leadership inciting racial hatred. This is exactly the kind of thing that causes political violence. They know this and do it anyway. They don't care if people get killed. And if you want to accuse me of exaggerating, I have two words for you: Al Sharpton.

Posted by: HA at October 16, 2004 04:10 AM

David,

You can only oppose generational shifts for so long. Eventually, they just grow on you.

;-)

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