October 05, 2004

Saddam and Zarqawi

This is supposedly news, but it actually doesn’t say much of anything.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A CIA report has found no conclusive evidence that former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein harbored Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, which the Bush administration asserted before the invasion of Iraq.

"There's no conclusive evidence the Saddam Hussein regime had harbored Zarqawi," a U.S. official said on Tuesday about the CIA findings.

But the official, speaking on condition of anonymity, stressed that the report, which was a mix of new information and a look at some older information, did not make any final judgments or come to any definitive conclusions.

[…]

The CIA report concludes Zarqawi was in and out of Baghdad, but cast doubt on reports that Zarqawi had been given official approval for medical treatment there as President Bush said this summer, ABC said.
I don’t know what the report actually says. It isn’t available. In any case, it supposedly doesn’t arrive at any conclusions one way or another about Zarqawi’s alleged alliance with Saddam Hussein. But let’s take out Occam’s Razor.

As Christopher Hitchens once put it, Baghdad under Saddam Hussein was a place that was as difficult to enter as it was to leave. You couldn’t exactly waltz in there as a foreigner and check yourself into a hospital as if you were showing up to buy smokes at a corner grocery in Brooklyn.

And if Zarqawi wasn't welcome in Iraq, why did he choose Baghdad as a place to see a doctor? There are plenty of Arab countries that were not under sanctions that deprived them of medical supplies. There were plenty of Arab countries that are not totalitarian police states (Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Kuwait,) that he could have chosen instead. So, why Iraq?

If Zarqawi really was connected to Saddam Hussein, these sentences near the article’s conclusion should follow logically.
Before last year's invasion to topple Saddam, the Bush administration portrayed Zarqawi as al Qaeda's link to Baghdad. Following Saddam's capture in December and waves of suicide attacks on U.S. and Iraqi security forces which followed, Zarqawi quickly became America's top enemy in Iraq.
None of this makes a lot of difference in any case. We did not invade Iraq because of Zarqawi. We invaded Iraq to kick off a slum-clearance program in Araby.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at October 5, 2004 07:19 PM

Comments

Some news you may not have seen: Someone has leaked 42 pages of Iraqi Intelligence Service documents
to CNS News. Be sure to follow the document link reproduced here .

snippets:
>>Other memos provide a list of terrorist groups with whom Iraq had relationships and considered available for terror operations against the United States. Among the organizations mentioned are those affiliated with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Ayman al-Zawahiri, two of the world's most wanted terrorists.>They detail the Iraqi regime's purchase of five kilograms of mustard gas on Aug. 21, 2000 and three vials of malignant pustule, another term for anthrax, on Sept. 6, 2000.>The memo includes Saddam's directive that "the party should move to hunt the Americans who are on Arabian land, especially in Somalia, by using Arabian elements ..." five "big, medium, and small" media organizations are looking into the documents.

Not only is Zarqawi having a bad week from our military, these memos could prove the connections between Saddam and the terrorists (and WMD) to the public in a big way. I hope these documents pan out. What an October surprise! If these docs are legit, they will blow galaxy sized holes in the 'no WMD', 'no terrorist connection' arguments.

Posted by: jdwill at October 5, 2004 07:59 PM

Jdwill,

Yes, I've seen that. But I've never heard of CNS news before. I'm waiting for this to be vetted by someone I know something about.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at October 5, 2004 08:06 PM

Likewise, but it does fit. Hussein was a very bad guy, if he would put people in shredders, he wouldn't stick at some revenge against the USA for humiliating him in 91.

Posted by: jdwill at October 5, 2004 08:10 PM

michael,

who will you trust to vet it for you? not cbs, i hope...

or the nyt...

or...

n

Posted by: nathan in tokyo at October 6, 2004 12:59 AM

And this is more responsible journalism?

After CBS stuck their collective head in their memo hole, you would think that anyone who wanted to be considered a responsible journalist, would verify, Verify, VERIFY, before writing articles or posting alleged documents. The CSN site has no evidence to support their claim and their experts are left anonymous. They don't even publish all 42 pages, only the first page, which has no real detail in it (and still no real support for validity).

If NYT published "evidence" of this calibur, supporting Bush's critics... would you be decrying the MSM and LWMB? If so, are you being disingenous now?

Don't be partisan, be American.

Tosk

PS - Of course, there are 42 pages... and 42 is a wholy Discordian number, since The Great non-Prophet Douglas Adams spoke the words of Eris saying "The answer to Life, The Universe and Everything is, in fact, 42."

Posted by: Ratatosk at October 6, 2004 07:11 AM

Aieeee! 42, how could I have missed that!?
Its obviously a hoax.

Whatever you do, don't read the NRO supporting post. Clearly CNS is not up to CBS standards.

Douglas Adams rules.

Posted by: jdwill at October 6, 2004 08:15 AM

NRO supporting post?

I must have missed it (I'm not sure what NRO stands for here). Can you post the link? (I read everything you linked to in your first post).

Posted by: Ratatosk at October 6, 2004 08:24 AM

The link above labeled 'to CNS News' is actually a link to a NationalReviewOnline post that has some additional bits about the story. The second link is a link to the CNS item itself.

Sorry for the confusion. I had my panic glasses on.

Posted by: jdwill at October 6, 2004 08:30 AM

Oh, National review Online... I read that and still see no 'supporting' documentation. I mean, I think that they did a nice job of saying "These may be real, these may not be real". I still find it hard to believe that Rumsfeld would not know about the document (and its validity) before it was leaked.

Not saying it isn't true, it may well be... and I'll be happy to see it (anything to redeem ourselves on this gaffe).

In fact, if we, before Nov 2, find out that Saddam did indeed have WMD's, that he was planning on using them, that he was working on Nuclear weapons, etc... I will vote for Bush.

I have lots of problems with Bush, but his inability to say "I was Wrong" really bothers me. If he ends up right, then that is a big plus for him.

If, on the other hand, this remains unsubstantiated, or highly suspect, it will just get filed in the "Well, Bigfoot may be real too... but I can't plan my camping trip around that."

Tosk

Posted by: Ratatosk at October 6, 2004 08:30 AM

Tosk,

Bruce Tefft, a retired CIA official - is a name

However, three other experts - a former weapons inspector with the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM), a retired CIA counter-terrorism official with vast experience dealing with Iraq, and a former advisor to then-presidential candidate Bill Clinton on Iraq - were asked to analyze the documents. All said they comport with the format, style and content of other Iraqi documents from that era known to be genuine.

is more attribution than we usually get from MSM articles quoting 'senior government official' anonymous sources. Which, I realise, the document source here is labeled as.

The article is not breathless, and it has a lot of detail that should support fact checking. All in all, on the surface, better stuff than we see from the AP, Reuters, and BBC.

Just saying...

BTW, what the NRO piece adds is that some large media outfits are at least looking at, and that it has at least begun to surface on talk radio. Kinda like the Swifty story. Will just have to wait a couple of days.

Posted by: jdwill at October 6, 2004 09:10 AM

More than what we get from the MSM... so instead of unsubstantiated comments from 'unnamed sources', we get 'unsubstantiated comments from 'unnamed sources who did X, Y and Z for a living'....

We shall see what happens.

I find it strange that something that is the Final, Absolute smoking gun, got out and leaked before the Administration had it verified. One would assume that the translator would have quickly recoginized the importance of the document, after the first page.

If this is valid and was leaked before it got to the Whitehouse... someone doesn't understand the meaning of 'loose lips'.

Be that as it may, I still say that hard evidence would sway my vote. (Which is why I'm still undecided.)

Posted by: Ratatosk at October 6, 2004 09:20 AM

MJT:

None of this makes a lot of difference in any case. We did not invade Iraq because of Zarqawi. We invaded Iraq to kick off a slum-clearance program in Araby.

Yes. It's so bloody obvious, and people work so very hard to ignore it. Saddam and his Ba'athists were just one set of very bad actors that need to go. Iraq was just the most obbvious next step in the process after Afghanistan.

Thanks for fighting the good fight.

Posted by: Mark Poling at October 6, 2004 12:57 PM

...slum-clearance program...

Hello? WMDs? Check Bush's speech before the UN in 2002. Two paragraphs on Hussein's mistreatment of his own citizens, and the bulk of the rest on terrorism and WMDs.

You may have thought that "democratic lynchpin of the middle east" was the prime rationale, but I think that was pretty low on the list for this administration.

Posted by: double-plus-ungood at October 6, 2004 03:41 PM

Michael,

Never underestimate the ferocity with which those who desperately don't want Saddam to have harbored terrorists like Zarqawi and Ansar al-Islam will trumpet any doubts about his guilt.

The philosopher William James made much of this human tendency to ignore facts we find too awkward in The Will to Believe.

The CIA has reason to be ridiculously inconclusive about its every pronouncement these days. Just as other doubters (including Kerry and Edwards) have their reasons.

The facts, however, are what they are.

Posted by: Dan at October 6, 2004 06:04 PM

In fact, if we, before Nov 2, find out that Saddam did indeed have WMD's, that he was planning on using them, that he was working on Nuclear weapons, etc... I will vote for Bush.

Be cautious. It might take more than a week or two to discredit; something that looks like hard evidence might turn out just forged.

Incidentally, if it's true that Saddam was buying a few kilos of mustard gas, that sure sounds like he didn't have thousands of kilos ready to use. Similarly 3 vials of anthrax makes it sound like he didn't know one of his biologists had kept a sample.

I have lots of problems with Bush, but his inability to say "I was Wrong" really bothers me. If he ends up right, then that is a big plus for him.

If he ends up right by accident that doesn't get him off the hook for me. If he told us there's a whole lot of platinum on the moon and he took us into a gigantic moon-expedition to mine it, when he had no evidence at all and he faked some, I'd be glad if it turned out that there really was platinum on the moon that was easily minable. But I wouldn't forgive him for saying "The platinum is there and I know just exactly where to find it" and then it turned out he had to spend a year and a half prospecting before the first little bit turned up.

Posted by: J Thomas at October 6, 2004 09:07 PM

"We invaded Iraq to kick off a slum-clearance project in Araby."

Never heard it said better. But why is it that the CIA, which was consistently wrong about Soviet power and economic strength for decades, which wasn't worth sour owlshit in the runup to Gulf War II, suddenly becomes an infallible oracle when some craptoad leaks a document damaging to Bush?

Posted by: John Van Laer at October 7, 2004 07:26 PM
Winner, The 2007 Weblog Awards, Best Middle East or Africa Blog

Pajamas Media BlogRoll Member



Testimonials

"I'm flattered such an excellent writer links to my stuff"
Johann Hari
Author of God Save the Queen?

"Terrific"
Andrew Sullivan
Author of Virtually Normal

"Brisk, bracing, sharp and thoughtful"
James Lileks
Author of The Gallery of Regrettable Food

"A hard-headed liberal who thinks and writes superbly"
Roger L. Simon
Author of Director's Cut

"Lively, vivid, and smart"
James Howard Kunstler
Author of The Geography of Nowhere


Contact Me

Send email to michaeltotten001 at gmail dot com


News Feeds




toysforiraq.gif



Link to Michael J. Totten with the logo button

totten_button.jpg


Tip Jar





Essays

Terror and Liberalism
Paul Berman, The American Prospect

The Men Who Would Be Orwell
Ron Rosenbaum, The New York Observer

Looking the World in the Eye
Robert D. Kaplan, The Atlantic Monthly

In the Eigth Circle of Thieves
E.L. Doctorow, The Nation

Against Rationalization
Christopher Hitchens, The Nation

The Wall
Yossi Klein Halevi, The New Republic

Jihad Versus McWorld
Benjamin Barber, The Atlantic Monthly

The Sunshine Warrior
Bill Keller, The New York Times Magazine

Power and Weakness
Robert Kagan, Policy Review

The Coming Anarchy
Robert D. Kaplan, The Atlantic Monthly

England Your England
George Orwell, The Lion and the Unicorn