No man, I can sooooo totally top this.

I got invited up to Boston a couple of weeks ago to attend my girlfriend's (make that now ex-girlfriend's) best friend's graduation. Well, apparently, after a few days, I guess everyone else got tired of the whole sight-seeing thing and decided to catch a flick: Van Helsing.

Needless to say, I got dragged along. Would of rather caught a Red Sox game, but noooooooo. I had to sit through 2 hours of that crap, instead. There's no way "The Day After Tomorrow" could possibly be any worse than Van Helsing, Michael. The theater was actually erupting in laughter at things that weren't intended to be funny. The thing was literally laughable, it was that bad. At least I didn't have to pay for anything. :)

And I thought Shrek 2 sucked, as well. Puss in Boots rocks, though. There's a scene where he gets busted for possession of catnip on COPS...absolutely hilarious. Maybe they'll make a spinoff.

The key difference there is that the producers in The day after tomorrow believe the science is valid.

The producers of Van Helsing have no such delusions

Reminds me of my reaction to Independence Day. During the movie lots of things kept bugging me, but I kept dismissing them because it was fun. A few days later the movie seemed like bitter crap. Like bad tequila, it was the kind of movie that produced a Day After Tomorrow hangover.

Was it raining llamas?
Questions like this is what keeps me coming back, Michael!
PS, I liked VanHelsing because it was way, way over-the-top with no aim at preaching ecology (or preaching anything other -- maybe -- than to try to further the cause of CGI effects), and Shrek2 has its moments, but no way I'm waisting time & money on TDAfterT

You know, the other day two guys were squared of against each other over this film on some morning news show... one was a scientist of sorts on Exxon's payroll, the other was, like, tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist. It was frikking hilarious. I love how there's no such thing as a middle ground to these people.

And Grant... see Troy. You'll love it. Rolling in the aisles, I tell you!

Grant,
"The theater was actually erupting in laughter at things that weren't intended to be funny. The thing was literally laughable, it was that bad."

I've heard the same thing at a lot of other sites that talk about seeing this movie. Maybe it'll turn into a modern "Plan 9 From Outer Space", famous for being so jaw-droppingly terrible.

Hey guys, it's called SUSPENSION OF DISBELIEF. It's a MOVIE for crissakes.

If you could get past the Leftwing propaganda, it was actually a fun ride. Liberal New York city on ice was pretty cool.

A born-again christian friend invited me to see this movie, I explained that Marilyn Manson was getting cast as the Christ in another movie, and that was how I felt about "The Special Effect After Tomorrow". I spent too many years measuring the temperature of the ocean to 1500 feet to watch this. Plus, I don't have dental, so I can't really afford to watch it.

Maybe in a couple of years when the whole thing is viewed with a "No More Wire Hangers...EVER!" campiness, I'll be able to endure watching it. For right now, I'll just try to avoid wondering why 50' of water turning to ice didn't destroy every building in NY, NY. Go fill a plastic gallon milk jug and put in in your freezer to test this principle.

I would have enjoyed the movie more if, instead of having American "refugees" crossing the Rio Grande and ending up in camps outside Mexico City, that they had instead made their way to the Yucatan and embarked on a "The Real Cancun"-style frolicking, spring break extravaganza.

It would have been more believable.

>>>"A born-again christian friend invited me to see this movie, I explained that Marilyn Manson was getting cast as the Christ in another movie, and that was how I felt about "The Special Effect After Tomorrow"."

Patrick,

I think you're being a bit hard on a movie that Al Gore and Moveon.org are championing and using to what they believe is their advantage----(something you'd never see christians do with a movie starring Marylin Manson as Jesus).

"I would have enjoyed the movie more if, instead of having American "refugees" crossing the Rio Grande and ending up in camps outside Mexico City, that they had instead made their way to the Yucatan and embarked on a "The Real Cancun"-style frolicking, spring break extravaganza."

At least we would have gotten a Fur Bikini or two. Come on, people, it's a summertime Global Warming Ice Age move -- and I want... no I demand fur bikinis. And some Beach Blanket Bingo music with wooly mammoths in the background doing the watusi. Frankie and Annette can be digitally mastered from the old movies now that AF is unfortuately very ill nowadays.

But I s'pose I'll settle for the Tornado and "Storm Surge" scenes*, after that it was pretty much time to snooze.

Manhattan is suddenly submerged beneath fifty feet of water, right? (This just suddenly happens for no particular reason.)**

(*&** MJT: If you want a reach for "realism" in the flick, 1) Cities have an anticipated storm drainage capacity, if it goes above it streets'll flood. 2) Storm surges aren't just the big tidal waves like we saw there, but a total rise in sea level en-masse from wind effects and the large-scale drop in pressure -- barrier islands in NC can acutally flood on the land-side first because of it. Therefore if you blow off everything else like the supercooled air coming down from the upper troposphere so that it doesn't warm as it goes down, that might "work" but probably not. But what's REALLY important, is that there were NO FUR BIKINIS! And that just won't stand)

I was listening to Morning Sedition on Air America this week and they interviewed the producer for Day After Tomorrow. The guy came across as a bit of a twit.

Apparently the MS people thought the movie was trite and stupid...and didn't offer up much in the way of really getting people to think about what really could happen in a global warming situation.

It seems like it's "Volcano" without the lava and helicopters.

I can't believe anyone could get offended by a movie which hewed so tightly to the template for disaster movies, right down to the cheesy dialogue. Oh, man, was the dialogue cheesy. Cheesometer set on "Stilton".

But it did make me think about the envi-ron-ment and stuff. Now I'm going to start recycling! And not driving! Ever! (I did think at the end of the movie: "Wouldn't they want to burn a LOT of greenhouse gasses at this point? Good thing those helicopters aren't solar powered: evacuating the survivors of all the northern states by helicopter is a good start.")

One other thought: man, does Roland Emmerich ever love blowing up iconic American images in his movies. If he ever stops being able to make films, I sure hope the FBI keeps an eye on him, because I get the feeling he'll be getting squirelly if he can't get film of major American sites being destroyed every couple of years.

I'm just sayin'.

It's just as believable as a movie about a man rising from the dead after Roman soldiers hammer nails through his hands and hang him from a cross.

The difference between that movie and "The Day After Tomorrow" is that at least the disaster epic has some science behind it. Climate change is a real problem that the world will have to deal with eventually.

But I suppose that is off limits because we must tread softly when we're talking religion but it's a free-for-all when we're laughing at environmentalists and their "tin-foil conspiracy theories".

The difference between that movie and "The Day After Tomorrow" is that at least the disaster epic has some science behind it.

Puleeze.

POTC had basic biology - nail someone spreadeagle to a tree (or related vertical structure) and he will die a painful long and agonizing death.

DAT had basic earth science - the oceans are important to the world's climate.

And after that, both go pearshaped science-wise.

You might as well say that "When Dinosaurs Ruled the Earth's" was it's credible language("Akita!") -- provided you missed the whole point of the film, which was of course, hot honies in Fur Bikinis. (At least they got that part right in that movie).

>>>"But I suppose that is off limits because we must tread softly when we're talking religion..."

You do? Tell me when you decide to start.

Jeremy,

The thing about the climatic stuff is that nobody is really sure how it works. Lots of bafflement still to be found among the pointy headed climatologist folk.

I don't know how long you've been following this, but the big fear in the 1970's was another ice age. Then we got the global warming bit. And now, more recently, we've gotten another rash of fears about a vicious cold wave.

The other thing that all the climatological fears presume is that the climate is supposed to remain static. Which it most certainly doesn't, when you start looking at fossil records of tree lines and the like.

BRD

BRD, I remember Ice Age predictions. I took an Environmental Science course back in '83, and everyone still worried about the "White Earth" problem. Seems they couldn't come up with a computer model that didn't naturally evolve (in VERY little time) to Earth As Snowball. Since then every time someone yells about the sky falling, I wonder which one.

The disruption of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Conveyor is not actually "horse shit".

I live in the UK, and have done some research on this, and the results are somewhat interesting.

Not sure about the rest of the stuff, its obviously a worst case scenario type of extrapolation, but the Gulf Stream stuff is pretty solid, and the its disruption has happened before.

Terrible about that Western-centric stuff, eh?
It's really raised my consciousness. Next time I watch Godzilla, I'll be sure to note how Japocentric it is. Christ.

EssEmm,

agreed. If non-westerners don't like "western-centric" movies, THEN MAKE YOUR OWN GODDAM MOVIES.

A lot of progressive multicuturalists are actually very west-centric. They'll tell you "The rest of the world has free health care, a generous safety net, gun control, free college education, no death penalty, and more relaxed attitudes about sex."
Well, most of Europe does anyway--maybe 10% of the rest of the world. (And Europe's not always as "European" as they imagine, either.)

Ahem...

And how, praytell, is having...

-Free Health Care
-A Generous Safety Net
-Free College Education
-No Death Penalty
-And More Relaxed Attitudes About Sex

...a bad thing?

You know, there are alot of ways I don't want us to be more like Western Europe (do note that I left out "gun control", for instance). But these are most definitely NOT those.

I will hand you that "Europe's not always as European as they imagine", though. When most liberals think of "Europe", they're mostly only thinking of Western Europe. Alot of Eastern European countries are actually very socially conservative, so I will conceed the validity of your point. Well, that part of your point at least.

Why is it supposedly the responsibility of Western movie makers to make movies that are non-"Western-centric"?

Does Taiwan make movies about Guyana? Does Bollywood makes movies about the mores of the kalahari bushmen? Did Sergei Eisenstein make movies about Indonesian coffee-growers?

It's a western movie. What did you expect?

Yeah, it is a WESTERN movie. But it's supposed to be about a GLOBAL disaster. I haven't seen the movie and I don't plan to, but I gotta say I'm with Michael on this one.

I probably would of been thinking the same sorts of things. Like wondering why they didn't show scenes from Eygpt or something. Maybe the pyramids getting toppled, for instance. Just try and imagine the visuals on that one.

Howdy, y'all.

Happy Memorial Day. Mrs. Tmj went to see TDAT. Her verdict: It wasn't THAT bad for a summer escapist movie.

It's a desert out there.

Grant, good to see you up and around. In the spirit of conflict, I'll just point out

- TAANSTAFL
- (see above line)We'll get a good look at what our social security shortfall problems may be like via europe in 2009 or shortly thereafter.
- You Get What You Pay For (unless you are Ivy League - then you get much, much less).
- We don't have a viable death penalty. It's more a retirement pension plan for murderers and their lawyers.
- I'm bang on for relaxed attitudes. I just don't want my tax dollars to pay for upkeep of poor individual life choices that mutate into societal disasters such as the generation of fatherless kids we are dealing with now.

grin

Valid points all, TmjUtah. I never said the Western European model didn't have its flaws (or that we ought to be adopting the Western European model in its entirety for that matter, either).

But before you go on any further talking about a "viable death penalty", stop and ask yourself whether or not any truly viable State extolling the virtues of limited government ought to be in the business of murdering its own citizens. It's a good question to ask, philosophically.

Oh, and, "I'm bang on for relaxed attitudes. I just don't want my tax dollars to pay for upkeep of poor individual life choices that mutate into societal disasters such as the generation of fatherless kids we are dealing with now," sounds like a call for strengthening the bonds of marriage. I'm 110% with you on this one. Kids need parents in healthy and loving relationships these days maybe more than ever before. Two great ways to start fixing the problem: Tougher divorce laws and the legalization of same-sex marriages.

The disruption of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Conveyor is not actually "horse sh*t".

Ben: There was some interesting conjecture as to the "theoretical consequences" of altering the arctic ocean salinity by Soviet Agriculture diverting northern eurasian rivers and more recently, the role of the Aswan Dam cutting off freshwater to the Med.Sea and, subsequently, the atlantic. Now imagine what kind if intrigue and suspense flick scenario that would make! I'd probably be more gripping than DAT, but the special effects would likely be over with pretty fast when the Israelis nuke the Aswan to save the world ad start WW3 in order to restore balance to the global ocean system. Then again, casting the Israelis as the good guys (even "Chaotic Good" from the D&D axes) would be a long shot for Hollywood politicial correctness.

ask yourself whether or not any truly viable State extolling the virtues of limited government ought to be in the business of murdering its own citizens. It's a good question to ask, philosophically.

Actually, it's an extremely loaded question and makes the assumption that execution of a legally convicted criminal is murder. It may be, it may not be, but to phrase it the way you do is NOT a "good question."

Oh, and to reply to a bit above about Europeans having "free" health care, college, a great safety net, etc., THEY'RE NOT FREE. They pay for it in astounding tax rates, long waits for benefits/services, and limited choice. Damned little in this world is free, Grant.

I'm not knocking the movie all that hard for being Western-centric. I wouldn't even have mentioned it if I didn't get a lecture at the end on precisely that subject.

Still, I would have liked to see the pyramids get sucked up by tornadoes or llamas fall from the sky on Machu Pichu. Or whatever other totally unbelievable stuff they could have come up with.

>>>"Still, I would have liked to see the pyramids get sucked up by tornadoes or llamas fall from the sky on Machu Pichu. Or whatever other totally unbelievable stuff they could have come up with."

Unfortunately, the superstorm only hit the northern hemisphere, but they did give you a faky looking Tokyo street.

Yes, Evil Otto, there indeed is no such thing as a free lunch. As for the part about the question being loaded, ofcourse it's loaded because I believe that capital punishment IS murder. Legally sanctioned or not, it's the premeditated taking of another life. Even if the person probably deserves to die, and there sure as hell are alot of cases in which the person deserves to die, you can't call it something else.

And it's not even so much that I oppose murder in all cases. Wars justify murder alot of times. It's that I oppose the State having that kind of power, the power of life and death, when it applies to the punishment of its own citizens for domestic crimes. I believe in limited government and I draw the line on this one. That's all.

"And how, praytell, is having... -Free Health Care -A Generous Safety Net -Free College Education -No Death Penalty -And More Relaxed Attitudes About Sex ...a bad thing?"

Well, one second-order consequence of all that is "mean age of the voting population exceeds 50 years". Western Europe is not reproducing itself, either by natural increase or by assimilation.

I don't see the connection between social democracy and a lack of reproduction, Michael. Maybe it exists, but I'm not seeing it. If anything, more relaxed attitudes about having sex ought to mean MORE kids, not less (and don't try and blame this one on abortion because their abortion rates are, by and in large, way lower than in the US).

So please explain, if you would.

I believe in limited government and I draw the line on this one. That's all.

Fair enough on the death penalty (we'll have to agree to disagree on that one)... but wait a second, you just spent time praising Europe for having "free" health care, college, and a generous safety net.

Grant, it seems to me that you DON'T believe in limited government.

TDAT breached the heretofore inviolate disaster movie rule that demands inclusion of the "My water just broke" pregnant female. Other than that oversight, it pretty well nailed all the standard "Irwin Allen on Steroids" cliches.

My 10 year old son thought it would have been improved if there had been a few sharks in the NY flooding scene.

TDAT breached the heretofore inviolate disaster movie rule that demands inclusion of the "My water just broke" pregnant female. Other than that oversight, it pretty well nailed all the standard "Irwin Allen on Steroids" cliches.

You forgot the aging man losing his wife/would-be-Significant-Other who then has to go on with-or-without the family pet who of course always survives [Towering Inferno, Possidon Adventure, Cassandra Crossing, Daylight]. However, true to the formula, no children or pets died [on screen] in the making of this movie..

My 10 year old son thought it would have been improved if there had been a few sharks in the NY flooding scene.

Sharks in downtown Manhattan, Llamas falling Machu Pichu, Fur Bikinis anywhere. Our talents are wasted on blogging.

As for the part about the question being loaded, ofcourse it's loaded because I believe that capital punishment IS murder. Legally sanctioned or not, it's the premeditated taking of another life. Even if the person probably deserves to die, and there sure as hell are alot of cases in which the person deserves to die, you can't call it something else.

Actually, most legal dictionaries define murder as the unlawful taking of another person's life. So not only can you call capital punishment something other than murder; I think you have to call it something else.

It might be a stupid movie, but global warming is a serious issue. One that if we took seriously would necessitate a new energy policy that would have the saluatory side effect of reducing the need for us to bow down before the Saudis and the rest of the OPEC cartel.

" . . . . but global warming is a serious issue . . "

A more serious issue is getting junk/pop science out of policy debates.

Ariel -- Yes, I completely agree with you. Junk science has no place in public policy debates.

"The Junk Science of George W. Bush"
by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20040308&c=1&s=kennedy

Marcus, Compared to the moonbat fantasties of Art Bell's "The Coming Global Superstorm," on which this movie was based according to interviews, GWB's science is relatively sane.

The only debate this movie should inspire is how to make computer special effects cheaper and more "realistic" (rendering-wise, we can screw the science so long as it looks kewl) so that we could have been treated to a much longer set of devastating special effects sequences instead of the two major but short-lived slam-bam-thank you ma'ams that this movie had. It would have spared us the predictable Irwin Allenesque "human drama"-queening that Ariel mentioned earlier. And from there, maybe -- MAYBE, talk about all those 'poor' soft-money actors who would be out of work (albiet less humiliated than if their characters had been written off by being crushed by a CGI falling llama).

But using it as a window by which to slam either Bush's or Gore's or anyone else's science/energy policies or to bring up the TANSAAFL stuff is a stretch and a half. Schlock is Schlock -- nothing else. You might as well draw a picture of the boogyman and use it to talk about tax cuts stimualting/dragging the economy. "See look! It's the boogyman, or at least my son's rendering of him from last nights night terrors, so ["Free Martha!"/"Lynch Gates!"]

but global warming is a serious issue.

When you can demonstrate that:

1. Any warming which is happening is a function of something other than the historical cyclicality in the earth's climate;

2. If 1 is demonstrated, that human beings are causing such warming;

3. If 1 and two are demonstrated, that such warming's costs outweigh its benefits (longer growing seasons etc.); and

4. That we have the capability to do something about it that makes sense from a cost perspective.

If all four of those things can be demonstrated? Then I'll begin being concerned. I'm still waiting for number 1.

And a model which could at least fit the past climactic changes would be a step in the right direction towards credibility.

Bill - I'm sure the movie sucked.

That said many people believe that the global warming could have catastrophic results. Even the Pentagon has put together a devastating scenario:
http://www.ems.org/climate/pentagon_climatechange.pdf

As someone earlier pointed out, the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Conveyor really is a big deal. The global environment should be taken seriously. Too bad no one in the political classes (by training or by choice) seems to realize it.

Battling the "more CO for everyone" crowd by out-stupiding them (see the weather movie) or by out-sleazing them (in the case of the de facto fatwa against Bjorn Lomborg) doesn't seem like taking high roads or even effective roads for that matter.

Global warming is a political problem, but it's one of those that should go beyond whether the R side or the D side is winning. We'll figure that out when half of the antarctic icecap does shear off into the ocean, and people are trying to figure out how to build a dike around the United States.

Bill -- Just like we're not "sure" what Saadam would have done if he had gotten his hands on nukes, we're also not sure what an abnormal, 3-4 degree celcius increase in global temperature will have on the world. But it would be stupid not to take prcautions based on credible possibilities. It appears that there is much evidence in support of the first three assertions that you insist must be shown before you will even "begin being concerned." What is clearly uncertain is whether the world will have the will as well as the technological breakthroughs necessary to shift to a post-fossil fuel economy fast enough to make a difference. This article by Bill McKibben in the current issue of the New York Review of Books, summarizes a variety of literature on this topic:
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/17179

My last post was in response to spc67, not bill.

((When you can demonstrate that:

1. Any warming which is happening is a function of something other than the historical cyclicality in the earth's climate;

2. If 1 is demonstrated, that human beings are causing such warming;

3. If 1 and two are demonstrated, that such warming's costs outweigh its benefits (longer growing seasons etc.); and

4. That we have the capability to do something about it that makes sense from a cost perspective.

If all four of those things can be demonstrated? Then I'll begin being concerned. I'm still waiting for number 1))

spc67 you nailed the issue!! Just watch. Absolutely no one will substantively address it either. Their best effort will be the rather lame refrain. , ,"well, if we wait for that kind of hard science, it may be too late . . . '

Ariel, spc17, other partisan simpletons --
The reality of global warming cannot be proven in a few sentences on a thread like this by non-scientist like myself. The books and materials that are referenced in the New York Review of Books article which I linked to contains lots of detailed information about the threat from a variety of different authors (who also differ significantly in their analysis of the situation).

The Core was another stupid Irwin Allen on steroids movie, but the collapsing of the earth’s magnetic poles is a serious issue.

No kidding.

If Al Gore said that "The Core" should provoke discussion of serious issues, he would sound just as silly.

Maybe herpetologists should set up a booth outside of showings of Godzilla to discuss the serious issue of the effects of radiation poisoning on lizards. If they could find some way to blame Bush for the problem, MoveOn would probably pay for it.

That said many people believe that the global warming could have catastrophic results. Even the Pentagon has put together a devastating scenario:

Indeed, but the pentagon,Worst-Case-Sceario reports often read like Pournelle/Niven collaborations. Pray for the best, plan for the worst. (Hmmm... "Lucifer Hammer" as a CGI driven mini... gotta be better than "10.5"). But anyway worse case scenarios are one thing, using bad cinema to highlight one contentious issue is just not the way to do it.

The Core was another stupid Irwin Allen on steroids movie, but the collapsing of the earth’s magnetic poles is a serious issue.

Yeah but The Core at least had Hillary Swank to appreciate between the scene where SF gets fried and... whatever else kewl & deadly happened. Weather movies, at best, get an older Barbara Eden in "Condominum," and Helen Hunt in "Twister" (though she's cute, waching her storm chase was like watching your older sister chase boys a week before the prom). I am much more interested in films brave enough to examine the inherent hostility between natural brunettes and blondes which was the main point in "When Dinosaurs Ruled the Earth" which at least had Victoria Vitri (Akita, Baby!). Heck even the "Cassandra Crossing", that tackled multiple fronts -- rouge-terrorist-with-virus/bad-bridge-construction/everyday-hazards-of-traveling-with-Eurotrash issues, had international alpha female Sophia Loren.

"... stop and ask yourself whether or not any truly viable State extolling the virtues of limited government ought to be in the business of murdering its own citizens. It's a good question to ask, philosophically."

Well, you might also ask whether or not any truly viable state ought to be imprisoning its citizens in cages for life as well, Grant.

"If anything, more relaxed attitudes about having sex ought to mean MORE kids, not less."

Would you argue that we have more or less relaxed attitudes about sex today than, say 50 years ago? Do we have more or less kids? Seems pretty obvious to me that we have more relaxed attitudes about sex and fewer kids. YRMV.

Well, the political impact will be easily measured: how many folks support HIGHER gasoline taxes?

Until this number is pretty high (I do -- to reduce income taxes), the movie's science remains pretty weak.

It's a LOT more scientifically known that Social Security is broken (higher taxes and/or less or later benefits), and needs reform sooner.

Tom -- Social Security upon closer examination appears to me to be less of a problem than has been advertised (by Republicans opposed in priciple to social insurance, and Wall Street cheerleaders eager for a huge source of new capital). Several adjustments can be made to the existing system -- particularly raising or eliminating the cap on earnings subject to the payroll tax, keeping America open to legal immigrants, and slowly raising the retirement age to 70 -- which would take care of the problem. Financing Medicare for the boomers, on the other hand, WILL be a more serious problem. But this is part of the larger question of who pays for and who gets the benefits of the expensive, near-miraculous new medical technology.

Ariel -- "Their best effort will be the rather lame refrain. , ,'well, if we wait for that kind of hard science, it may be too late . . . '"

But JUST SUPPOSE that it turns out that the nature of this problem is such that by the time INCONTROVERTIBLE evidence shows up, it will be too late to do anything meaningful...given the possibility that this is IN FACT the situaion, wouldn't it be stupid to demand such certainty, or not to take any precautions to guard against such a scenario?

Reminds me a little of a smoker who REFUSES to quit until it is proven that he or she DEFINATELY will get cancer...

I simply do not know enough about the details of the research into the global warming threat to argue against those who would question that research (doubtlessly without having read such research themselves, either).

"rouge-terrorist-with-virus"??????

Would this be an old lady with too much makeup on her cheeks or someone armed with jeweler's fine abrasive?

TDAT is more US-centric than Western-centric, and for a specific reason: It seems to me that the filmmaker is saying that it is the fault of the US environmental policies (the failure to ratify the Kyoto accords, specifically) that the cataclysm happens. He wants to show the punishment being doled out soley to the evil, anti-environment US. This film is all about the US getting its just desserts.

There is a vast difference between suspending disbelief and hanging it by the neck until dead.

A major part of the problem in using computer model to predict cooling or warming is that nobody has created a model that can predict the state of the world climate from a decade ago. If you cannot predict the past you have a long way to go before predicting the future.

Markus, go past the propaganda and look at what the arm wavers actually have in terms of hard solid facts. Nada. There is no record of prior sentient induced global climate change to use for reference. There is though a considerable amount of data showing major climate shifts before there were any humans on the planet. We've seen nothing in the period of supposed human intervention that looks remarkable compared to eras tens of thousands of years past.

The smoker by comparison has a very large base of useful statistical data. The correlation between smoking and specific diseases is much too high to make waiting for a specific mechanism to explain why this is. Without the physical addiction to tobacco the continuing intake of tobacco smoke in the light of this data is plainly stupid. Anindividual with no knowledge of how human physiology works can easily observe that the great majority of people who have a large metal blade thrust through their torso will dies very soon afterward and decide that he will avoid having his torso treated similarly. He doesn't need to know anything about the circulatory system or other vital organs to correctly reach this conclusion.

There will never be a 'Lucifer's Hammer' for two reasons. First, a huge amount of the story takes place in the rain. This was offered to Jerry and Larry as a reason the movie would be too expensive. Silly, yes, I know. The more important reason is that the entire climax of the book is in support of Western civilization and keeping that intact by not allowing a lunatic horde to destroy an intact nuclear power plant. Keeping the power flowing was a vital factor to holding on to those advances that make life in today's world so much longer and more comfortable than the world before electrically powered civilization.

Hollywood doesn't like that ending even though it keeps the power going to film projectors, too.

I simply do not know enough about the details of the research into the global warming threat to argue against those who would question that research (doubtlessly without having read such research themselves, either).

Well that's obvious. But you also are willing to proclaim it "a serious problem" while calling those who are unconvinced (and by the way, have read many studies on it)"partisan simpletons."

Makes you sound like a boob.

spc67 -- if indeed you have read many studies on it, you know already that a majority of scientists are convinced that at least some of the "warming which is happening is a function of something other than the historical cyclicality in the earth's climate." This has not been proven, but it is a highly likely hypothesis. Waiting for PROOF that this is the case, rather than just a STRONG LIKLIHOOD, is foolish, since this gives us less time to make necessary adjustments in our energy policy.

Waiting for PROOF that this is the case, rather than just a STRONG LIKLIHOOD, is foolish, since this gives us less time to make necessary adjustments in our energy policy.

Oh, of course! Instead, let's waste resources pursuing a course of action to combat a problem which

1. May not exist; and
2. Which our course of actions may have no effect on!

Wonderful way to make policy.

"I don't see the connection between social democracy and a lack of reproduction, Michael. Maybe it exists, but I'm not seeing it. If anything, more relaxed attitudes about having sex ought to mean MORE kids, not less"

Grant, you don't have children, do you?

But I will answer your question by inviting you to look at the lifestyles and birth demographics of sexually "relaxed" countries versus those where attitudes towards sex can by no means be described as "relaxed." For instance, it is quite well-known that birth rates among Western Europeans are low. On the other hand, the birth rate in Saudi Arabia is quite high (if you don't want to scroll down, it's "Total fertility rate: 6.3 children born/woman").

And you really can't discount abortion. It's all part and parcel -- whatever you may think of the issue -- to the idea that sex is primarily for pleasure, and procreation is an option, and one that interferes a great deal (just ask anyone with children) with the "primary" (pleasure) goal.

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That might be a good point, except, er, Saddam had already acquired and used WMD's.

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