May 25, 2004
Missing Iraq
Iraqi blogger Omar posts a photo gallery from a couple of places in Baghdad.
He also has the best photos of marsh reed huts I've ever seen. The huts are brand-new, made from nothing but reeds. Saddam dammed up the marshes in Southern Iraq and set them on fire. The smoke could be seen from the space shuttle Endeavor. Now that the ecosystem is being restored, the Marsh Arabs are moving back in.
Some of these places in Iraq are pretty nice. Omar's photos make Baghdad look like a completely normal city. In many ways, I’m sure it is. Suicide bombs aren't a constant on every block - or on any block for that matter. Most people and buildings will never be bombed. Perusing these photos makes me wistfully wish I were there.
My worst kept secret is that I was planning to go to Iraq in December. I am very sorry to say that I have put that on hold. I'm a little bit brave, but not that brave. Not right now, anyway. Since foreigners from several different countries have been kidnapped and executed – some of them on camera - I've decided I'd better go later.
I really do want to visit. I want to talk to people and ask how they're doing. I want to breathe the free air of Baghdad. I want to see a ruined country reborn. I want to report back and let everyone know how it's going.
The United States is not attacking Iraq. The United States is defending Iraq. That would be something to see. It would really be something to write about.
In the meantime, I have other plans. Libya is first on the list. I finally reached a breakthrough in the painstaking process of getting a visa today. I'll be there in five weeks, Inshallah.
Congratulations! I expect a lot of pictures, some cogent analysis, and at least a few funny stories when you return.
(Is Shelly going with you?)
Posted by: Zachary Braverman at May 25, 2004 05:15 PMI can't wait to hear about the trip.
Posted by: FH at May 25, 2004 05:21 PMZachary: Is Shelly going with you?
Yep. It took me a while to talk her into it, but now she's looking forward to it as much as I am. She's been to Morocco already, so the idea of visiting an Arab country doesn't make her as nervous as it makes some people. Her initial hesitation was all about the freaky government. We'll be fine, though. It's a pretty safe place, actually. She has a sense of humor about it. Yesterday she said we must get our pictures taken next to a propganda picture of Colonel Qaddafi looking all stern in his sunglasses.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 25, 2004 05:26 PMPrudent postponement Michael. Still, you've chosen a great adventure. I'd hope to see informal miniDV "interviews" from the airport cabbie on arrival to the airport cabbie on departure and every willing Iraqi homie in between. Well, if bandwidth were free. On another matter - perhaps hang an air freshener after the wall hosing?
Posted by: Stephen Meyer at May 25, 2004 05:59 PMI'm envious - I hope you have a glorious trip to Libya, and to Iraq (should you make it this year or not).
Now I can live through you, too!
Posted by: Ry Jones at May 25, 2004 06:54 PMMy last four years as a cop, I was a bomb technician.
I say that only to say that your stones are bigger than mine. You couldn't drag me to one of those places but at the same time I am a bit envious. You'll have a ball.
Posted by: Roark at May 25, 2004 07:38 PM"The United States is not attacking Iraq. The United States is defending Iraq."
How about asking the Iraqis what they think? The most recent polls there show a majority saying the America is occupying Iraq, not liberating it, and that they want Americans out, whatever the consequences. That's the kind of pissed-off people they are, these days.
At this point, I am pro-occupation, to the point where I see the June 30 handover date as a looming disaster. I am far from confident that things have settled down enough for a sovereignty transfer. Some Iraqis appear to accept the possibility of civil war as the lesser of evils, if they have to choose between that and continued occupation. That's not good.
And what's the problem? Our own moral certitude about our good intentions there, and how that certitude somehow makes us think we would be, and are inherently better people.
You can't say Abu Ghraib was a one-day affair just because one CDROM happened to be made from one day's festivities. You can't say Abu Ghraib was the only place this kind of thing was happening, as new images emerge every week and as investigations widen. You can't laugh off questions about 40 Iraqis slaughtered at what increasingly appears to have been a wedding after all, and you really can't laugh it off with what an officer in charge said afterward: that they must have been insurgents, because ... nobody drives 80 miles to go to a wedding.
Hell, I've driven 250 miles to go to a wedding.
Face it, Michael, you're almost certainly not going to be in Baghdad any time in the next few years as anything but a war correspondent. You were far too optimistic through this whole thing. Your optimism and your hubristic certainty of the morality of our cause there, multiplied over the millions who believed as you do (fewer and fewer every day, it seems) hasn't won us enough points where it matters: with the Iraqi people.
The biggest danger of all is looming, a danger that any level-headed person could have foreseen at the outset: many Americans - possible a hardening majority at this point - have started to believe that Iraq is too hot to handle, that we should be getting out of there. That throws the whole moral case for the war into doubt. Getting out of there too quickly threatens civil war. Civil wars are more deadly than most other kinds of wars. This is not a risk to take lightly. What good is it to have a feather in your liberal democracy cap like having ousted a cruel dictator, if the upshot is a destabilization that kills more people than that dictator ever did? Maybe far more? Look at our own Civil War. Compare the casualty count with any other war America has been involved in.
This is the Real War, now. Mission Accomplished not. And whether you knew it or not at the time, this is what you signed up for.
Put your money - and your body - where your mouth is. Buy the tickets that will get you to Baghdad in January 2005, not long after these supposed elections. I'll help you raise the money if that's a problem. Buy the air tickets. Scan them and put them up on your blog. Promise us that you'll go. And go. No matter what it's like at that point. If the prospect of going seems a bit frightening at that point, consider this: as someone with strong opinions about war, and about when it's right and when it's wrong, actually going to a war zone will strengthen your credibility as a journalist and as commentator immeasurably. A lot more people might actually look up to you as someone who is truly qualified to pronounce on the issues that arise over the taking of human life by force of arms.
Posted by: Michael Turner at May 25, 2004 11:14 PMMichael Turner,
You're wallowing in negativity. I don't quite blame you for it. Since I've decided not to go in the immediate future I can't exactly deny there's something worth being negative about. It's gone downhill lately. But it's also gone a bit uphill since I've made my decision to steer clear of it. I noticed, maybe you didn't. al-Sadr is toast and Fallujah is at least normal by its standard of normal.
But, really, what worries me about going there is what will happen to me personally rather than what the place is like as a whole. That's the lens I have to look at this through at the moment I decide whether or not I want to put myself there.
I'm a lot less afraid of a war zone per se than I am of people who would stalk me personally because I am an unarmed foreign civilian. I would rather be a soldier, and I would rather have been there the day we dropped bombs on the city than go there today, unarmed, and alone.
Anyway, I've already been to a war zone. I went to Ground Zero in Manhattan while it was still on fire. I breathed the ashes of dead people.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 25, 2004 11:45 PM"You're wallowing in negativity."
I'm looking at current poll results. Go look at them yourself. Face reality - part of reality is what other people think, whether it's true or not. Especially in a democracy, and you're in favor of democracy, as I understand it. What those people think is not something a lone blogger can control.
"Anyway, I've already been to a war zone. I went to Ground Zero in Manhattan while it was still on fire. I breathed the ashes of dead people."
Been there, done that, and simply because you've visited the scene of the crime of the century, and only after people were dead?
I wouldn't carve the notch just yet.
The closest I've gotten to a national war zone is going in every day to work at a national laboratory during Gulf War I, in a group doing logistics support for the attack preparations. I was passing troop carriers every day at the gate, put there to guard us from terrorist attacks. You can get used to it, in a weird way. Perhaps a little too used to it. One day, deeply stressed about the whole situation, and preoccupied, I heard someone yell behind me, turned to see a guard with his hand on the holster of his pistol - looking straight at me. I'd walked about 20 feet past a checkpoint.
The closest I've gotten to a real war zone was living in a neighborhood where I could hear a burst of automatic weapons fire almost every night. I had a lot of trouble working, after my experience of war, such as it was. After a while, it was the only kind of neighborhood I could afford.
During the entire time I was working in defense logistics, my live-in girlfriend was under threat of attack by a man who'd been in prison for attempted murder - and of her. I got the news that he'd jumped parole in LA and that Iraq had invaded Kuwait in the same week, as I recall. Every couple of weeks, someone would spot him in the Bay Area.
It's not easy going to a war job every day, driving 50 miles, leaving behind a woman you love, not knowing whether you'd see her alive when you got home the next day. I started to have a certain sympathy for poor Iraqi conscripts clinging to life at the lips of bomb craters while B-52s rained death around them, wondering if they'd ever see their families again.
You haven't been in a war zone. And whatever I've been through, neither have I. Don't kid yourself. It's not something you inflict on other, unwilling people without due cause. As far as I'm concerned, the only due cause strong enough is the one for you'd risk your own life, just to help to make it happen, and where the risk of a negative outcome worse than the problem you were trying to address by going to war was vanishingly small.
I think I would have risked my own life to see Saddam gone. But I couldn't see a way to do that without a serious risk of making things worse for Iraqis, and perhaps the whole region. I still don't see a way. I can make a moral case for a stronger occupation of Iraq than we have now. I still can't make one for the invasion itself, however.
My sense of when it's worth going to war is informed by a vague sense of what it's like in the country attacked. Yours is informed by ... breathing ashes at Ground Zero. You could walk away from that wrenching experience any time you liked. The memories might be indelible, but you went there by choice, and left when you'd had enough. I couldn't walk away from my experience. I had to go through it. I couldn't leave. It hurts me daily. And it's still not the actual experience of war. Nowhere near.
Posted by: Michael Turner at May 26, 2004 12:23 AMMichael Turner: But I couldn't see a way to do that without a serious risk of making things worse for Iraqis, and perhaps the whole region.
This right here is our primary point of divurgence.
I can make a moral case for a stronger occupation of Iraq than we have now. I still can't make one for the invasion itself, however.
Reasonable enough. The invasion is a fait accompli. It cannot be undone.
My sense of when it's worth going to war is informed by a vague sense of what it's like in the country attacked. Yours is informed by ... breathing ashes at Ground Zero.
It's interesting how we see the same event differently. You see, when I breathed ashes at Ground Zero I had a sense of what it's like to be in the country attacked that wasn't at all vague. It was visceral. We were attacked. And I stood there at the burning aftermath.
I know Iraq didn't attack us. We don't need to go over that. But as I said on the main page a few days ago:
The political culture of the Middle East absolutely is our business. Middle Eastern political science topples buildings and kills thousands in our own cities.
Paul Berman said it better, though, in Terror and Liberalism:
We should say that in putting up a struggle against the terrorists and against the movements that support them, we are defending public safety in the short run, which will have to be everyone's business now. But we should also explain that we want to defend public safety in the long run, which can only be achieved by securing and spreading liberty and democracy. We should explain that one day even some of our enemies will want a free society in their own part of the world, and on that day those people will be our friends. We ought to acknowledge that in the meantime America may well end up undergoing sufferings on a scale that can never be evoked by a modest word like "policing." It is not that we have chosen war; it has chosen us, and all we can do is behave correctly under the circumstances. But a glance at the past ought to steady our nerves. For one day the liberty that we enjoy will be enjoyed also in those portions of the Arab and Islamic world that lack it now, and liberty for them will mean safety for us.Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 26, 2004 12:48 AM
MJT, enjoy yourself.
The biggest past Iraq mistake is Bremer not encouraging more local council elections, and getting more elected Iraqis with more authority - power - budget.
The biggest future mistake is national slate parties instead of constituencies (local representatives). Still unclear, but national slates will lead to a 3 state division in Iraq -- Kurdistan fears of Turkey notwithstanding.
Please be careful, and Shelly too; and have lots of good times, and interesting ones, too.
Posted by: Tom Grey at May 26, 2004 04:06 AMThe polls are all lies.
Posted by: Eric Blair at May 26, 2004 05:29 AMThe objections to our war in Iraq remain exactly waht they have always been:
(1) The US is "defending" Iraq in an unbelievably, disastrously, criminally irresponsibly sloppy way. (It's Gen. Zinni, by the way, who also describes the irresponsibility and incompetence of the Bush Administration as being "criminal" in its scope.)
(2) The undeniable fact that we absolutely must win the War Against Megaterrorism on a worldwide theater does NOT mean that this particular battle in that war was not stupidly chosen, and thus a serious waste of military resources which we could better have used in other ways. Lest we forget, there is now no doubt whatsoever that the Bushites got us into this war precisely because they managed to stupidly convince themselves that Iraq could be conquered, occupied and reformed for a pittance -- and, for that reason, felt themselves morally justified not only in deliberately and grossly exaggerating the evidence that Saddam was acquring the Bomb, but in deliberately concealing from Congress for weeks (until it passed the Iraq war resolution) their discovery that North Korea had restarted its own very real Bomb factory. The willingless to back up stupid overconfidence with dishonesty is the oldest political story in the book, but that doesn't make it any less disgusting or dangerous. Before you throw any more bouquets at the Bush Administration, keep in mind that -- by distracting us from the ongoing Bomb development programs of Iran, Pakistan and North Korea -- they may very well have lost us the worldwide war.
Posted by: Bruce Moomaw at May 26, 2004 06:51 AMYes, I've read Paul Berman's poorly researched, poorly fact-checked Terror and Liberalism.
But let's stick with the issue. Michael, can you tell me what war Paul Berman fought in?
Seeing some window glass broken on Telegraph Avenue in Berkeley, or at Columbia University, doesn't count in my book.
"You see, when I breathed ashes at Ground Zero I had a sense of what it's like to be in the country attacked that wasn't at all vague. It was visceral. We were attacked. And I stood there at the burning aftermath."
Yes, but you went there by choice. And you left by choice. That's not war. War is a trap, where you have that visceral feeling, day after day, and you're not allowed to leave. If you don't think that makes a difference, I strongly advise you: go to Iraq, and get far enough out somewhere, and into a situation where you're in doubt that you'll ever make it back.
From what I hear you saying, though, sounds like you don't have what that takes. You just have what it takes to write promotional material for certain projects involving putting other people through that sort of experience. Well, good on you, Michael Totten! It's a dirty job, but somebody's got to do it.
This is my last post to your comment forum for quite some time. I hope things don't get unexpectedly hot for you in Libya. No, wait, I take that back. I hope that they do, but that you make it back OK. Then you'll have something to say to me that I can respect.
Posted by: Michael Turner at May 26, 2004 09:09 AMMichael Turner:
MJT can defend himself, but I'm reading what you've written here over the last couple days leading up to this final bon mot and I'm just shocked at what a complete and utter ass you're being. You've made everything personal and nasty and moved it far beyond politics and intellectual matters. You're simply being a dick.
Of course, you won't believe this. But, I would hope for your sake that the fact that multiple other people (and I'd bet you vast sums of money I'm not alone) would have this opinion of you would cause some sort of introspection. Please do leave. It would be best for everyone.
Posted by: Eric Deamer at May 26, 2004 09:20 AMHave a great trip, MJT.
Don't let the bipolars who fail to take their meds get to you.
Posted by: Bob at May 26, 2004 09:27 AMMJT I noticed, maybe you didn't. al-Sadr is toast and Fallujah is at least normal by its standard of normal.
From this report today:With U.S. marines gone and central government authority virtually nonexistent, Fallujah resembles an Islamic mini-state - anyone caught selling alcohol is flogged and paraded in the city. Men are encouraged to grow beards and barbers are warned against giving "western" hair cuts.
"After all the blood that was shed, and the lives that were lost, we shall only accept God's law in Fallujah," said cleric Abdul-Qader al-Aloussi, offering a glimpse of what a future Iraq may look like as the U.S.-led occupation draws to a close. "We must capitalize on our victory over the Americans and implement Islamic sharia laws."..and from this report:
BAGHDAD, Iraq - In the sprawling slum known as Sadr City, prominently displayed banners written in English taunt American soldiers. "Welcome," they declare, to a "second Vietnam."
Militiamen loyal to rebel cleric Muqtada al-Sadr regularly attack U.S. forces.
Bystanders are struck by stray bullets. Residents suspected of helping the Americans are murdered.
In the last month, seven Iraqis, including the chairman of Sadr City's version of a city council, were killed in separate incidents, an Iraqi police official said. In every case, their bodies were hung in public with attached signs accusing them of being American spies."Toast"? "Normal"? Jeez, Michael, your expectations have dropped pretty far over the last month or so. I'd say that things are pretty much in the toilet. Posted by: double-plus-ungood at May 26, 2004 09:45 AM
Michael Turner: From what I hear you saying, though, sounds like you don't have what that takes.
Now you are being a troll. I don't see you going over to a war zone either. You opine on this subject nearly as much as I do. Why don't you go alone and unarmed where vicious people will stalk you personally? Go on. Be a walking World Trade Center in a terrorist nest if you're going to order me over there, too.
Consider this a troll warning. You improved for a while, but now you've reverted.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 26, 2004 09:50 AMStu (double plus ungood),
The Shi'ite clerics have come out agaisnt al-Sadr. Yeah, I'd say he's toast. He just isn't burned yet. I thought he was pretty scary for a while there, but I don't think so anymore.
I didn't know that about Fallujah, though. That's unfortunate. It is the biggest problem city in the country, though. The rest are doing much better.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 26, 2004 09:53 AMThe people whining about alcohol not being available in Fallujah and Basrah may not know that Islam prohibits the consumption of alcohol.
Alcohol is prohibited in Riyadh as well and many other Islamic cities.
No matter how many dictators of Islamic countries are overthrown, the people will still be subservient to Islam. By western standards, they will never really be free.
Posted by: Bob at May 26, 2004 10:02 AMI'm a lot less afraid of a war zone per se than I am of people who would stalk me personally because I am an unarmed foreign civilian.
What!? Unarmed? Are you crazy?
You've got no job and your cash reserves are dwindling. Get a brace of decent 1911-pattern pistols and go to Gunsite with your wife, before you're too poor to afford it. Figure $700 apiece for the guns, and $4200 each for training. That's ten grand, not counting travel to AZ: you and your wife would both be un-muggable. You could still get shot or blown up, of course, but kidnapping would be out of the question, especially if you stay together.
With that setup, you could go to Iraq whenever you want. Without it, you should never go.
Cooper: "We are informed by people returning from Iraq that while it is not overwhelmingly difficult to bring along your own personal weapon, it is intimidating to try to bring it back. I guess we can attack this out of pure generosity. Most of us have two 1911s, or we can arrange to have. Take one of them over and leave it there. This will delight the heart of the recipient and simultaneously help with the war effort."
He means, leave your gun with a US servicemember. They certainly could use some decent sidearms over there. The Berettas are underpowered and hellishly unreliable.
Posted by: dipnut at May 26, 2004 10:14 AMMJT The Shi'ite clerics have come out agaisnt al-Sadr.
They've been against him from the start. The problem is that the more he fights the coalition, the more popular support he gets, and the clergy know it. If they come out in full force against him, they risk alienating their own support base and look like toadies to the coalition. But even if Sadr is killed or captured by the coalition, it'll just increase support for his movement. The problem isn't the leadership, it's the movement itself. It's a tricky bit of politics.
Posted by: double-plus-ungood at May 26, 2004 10:17 AMThe people whining about alcohol not being available in Fallujah and Basrah may not know that Islam prohibits the consumption of alcohol.
Alcohol is prohibited in Riyadh as well and many other Islamic cities.
While prohibited in Saudi Arabia, which is pretty much a Taliban-style religious dicatorship, it's available in many other Islamic nations. If Nagib Mafouz's excellent Cairo Trilogy is to believed, alcohol was a pretty common part of the social scene in Egypt. Dunno if it still is or not...
Posted by: double-plus-ungood at May 26, 2004 10:21 AMDipnut,
Going armed to Iraq is not my wife's idea of a vacation. If I go, she won't. Yeah though, you're right of course. I wouldn't go there unarmed. That would be stupid.
(PS - I don't have no job, I have three jobs, all part-time telecommuniting writing jobs, one of which gets posted on the left side bar of the blog.)
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 26, 2004 10:52 AMTurner's rant sounds like the standard "chickenhawk" BS. Unable or unwilling to reasonably dispute opinions, someone using this argument seeks to simply discredit the holder of the contrary opinion. I don't understand the argument at all really. This is not Sparta. Civilian control of the military is one of features of the US Constitution, thus people without that first hand knowledge of war whom Turner is so eager to belittle will often be in control of our war-making capabilities, by design. Maybe someone with better knowledge of US History can correct me, but I don't seem to remember Lincoln's military service. If he had no first-hand experience, Mr. Turner, then by your reasoning he had no right to crush the Southern rebellion, as he did not appreciate the horrors it would cause.
Anyways, not too worried about you, MJT, but for everyone else, don't let the Turners of the world silence you. We all have a right to an opinion, and the more informed that opinion is, the better.
Enjoy your travels.
Posted by: Obe at May 26, 2004 12:03 PMWow, that is cool. You should try to get a picture with the Colonel himself. Don't push it, of course, but it might be worth an inquiry. Who knows? Perhaps he's eager to meet with Americans to prove that he's back with the program.
Posted by: Doc at May 26, 2004 12:39 PMI must have misunderstood you, Michael. Sorry about that.
Posted by: dipnut at May 26, 2004 01:29 PMDipnut,
No, I don't think you misunderstood me unless I misunderstood you. I did first say I would go to Iraq unarmed. But I wasn't seriously thinking about it, it was just a pop-off statement. I'm going to Libya unarmed (of course, I have no choice) and will be vulnerable but at a level that is acceptable to me.
Then again, when I was considering Iraq I figured I would arrive unarmed but find a weapon once I got there. (That would probably not be very difficult.) It's hard to take guns across borders. So I would have been unarmed at least part of the time.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 26, 2004 01:56 PMEnjoy your trip & take plenty of pictures. The New York Times wrote a travel piece on Libya, focusing on the Roman Ruins there. Lonely Planet says it's downright Mediterranean in the places that aren't covered with sand.
Posted by: mary at May 26, 2004 07:07 PMMy concern about Michael's trip is not that he might carry a gun-- he'd be insane not to. My concern is that he is also likely to carry a pair of rose-colored glasses.
Posted by: Bruce Moomaw at May 26, 2004 09:38 PMBruce, if you're actually worried about that, then I guess you have two choices:
(1) You can go over there yourself and do your own reporting back, in what you see as an honest manner; or
(2) You can sit in your basement, munching on snacks, and write comments complaining about what Michael writes.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that the former might be more productive.
Posted by: jeremy at May 27, 2004 08:02 AMVery good subject.
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