Michael J. Totten: Brandon Mayfield Released

I guess you could say the system works...it is better to be safe then sorry, especially considering the Mike Hawash case.

Posted by: Mike Silverman at May 20, 2004 07:53 PM

I called it, another Eunice Stone citing.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 08:21 PM

If the system works, it works pretty darn slowly. PS: Fingerprint "science" stinks, to high heaven.

Posted by: Worldwide Pablo at May 20, 2004 09:41 PM

Read the story more carefully. It does NOT say that the fingerprint belonged to someone else. It says "evidence pointed" to someone else. Think about this logically for a second--the fingerprint just happens to (appear to) match a white American Muslim?

Posted by: Brainster at May 20, 2004 11:09 PM

Brainster,

I zeroed in on this: fingerprints found on a bag near the bombing site were that of an Algerian.

You zeroed in on this: evidence pointed to another suspect in the deadly train bombings.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 20, 2004 11:19 PM

Brainster, quick, call Eunice Stone with your discovery!

Posted by: calibar at May 21, 2004 06:03 AM

DOH! Still seems a little odd that the prints appeared to match an American Muslim--almost sounds like they were not great prints, so they checked them against people already suspect?

Posted by: Brainster at May 21, 2004 09:20 AM

"I guess you could say the system works...it is better to be safe then sorry, especially considering the Mike Hawash case."
Posted by: Mike Silverman at May 20, 2004 07:53 PM

Wow. I hope I never start thinking like that.

Posted by: alan at May 21, 2004 11:37 AM

Actually, to me it sounds like a fishing expedition.

Note to everyone who thinks "better intelligence" is the way to win the War on Terror; the more we rely on intelligence, the more we can expect to see this type of thing.

Posted by: Mark Poling at May 21, 2004 11:39 AM

Michael,

It looks like the police suspect Mr. Mayfield of much, and want him to spill the beans.

So they - very publicly - arrest him. Then they switch to the Algerian while Mayfield is still in custody, making it look like Mayfield turned his buddy in.

Mayfield, if innocent, has nothing to fear (albeit he would have every right to be angry!). If guilty, he will be terrified of his Algerian buddies, and will be looking for protection real soon. He'd have to talk first, though.

If my theory is right, it also drives a wedge between AQ (in its broadest definition) and its American wannabes. This could actually be a very clever tactic - provided it was based in the first place on solid evidence.

If I were a reporter - a real one, not a shill - or a top-notch blogger (hint hint) I'd make a note to check up on Mr. Mayfield in a few months. If he is mysteriously unreachable, we'll know.

Then again, maybe I've just been watching too many "Law And Orders" lately.

Posted by: ras at May 21, 2004 05:36 PM

If my theory is right, it also drives a wedge between AQ (in its broadest definition) and its American wannabes.

--any evidence he is an AQ wannabe other than his conversion to Islam? If I convert from my belief in Zeus to Judaism, does that make me a follower of Ariel Sharon? One could easily make that speculative assertion, since it requires no evidence and only enough prejudice to uphold.

Posted by: calibar at May 21, 2004 07:02 PM

Calibar,

No evidence whatsoever. No prejudice either; just pure speculation, I won't deny that.

But I usually like to start from the premise that people are not stupid. Mostly they are smart. Not Einstein smart or Sherlock clever, but normal smart. And normal in other ways too, such as in not wanting to hurt an innocent.

All of which leaves me wondering why the police would go public on this guy. Also, on a case like this, I'd expect higher-ups to approve the moves. I mean, this was the Madrid subway bombing, after all. That's pretty big, isn't it? And the higher-ups wouldn't wage a vendetta against a minor figure that no one has ever heard of. Too much blowback for what it's worth; bad cost-benefit. Quick path to a demotion.

So I suspect - and with no hard evidence to back me up - that someone is playing a game here. Maybe I'm being a real cause-and-effect stickler, but ... why? Why did they go so public?

Why would they mix up the fingerprint ids (admittedly an art based on a science), but too coincidental that the mismatch just happened to target an American Muslim, whose neighbors note an awful lot of middle-of-the-night meetings at his mosque.

Something is missing. My theory, such as it is, is the best I can come up with. I welcome alternatives for consideration. I can think of several, but none better than what I suggested. Perhaps I need more creativity juice added to my coffee.

But if Mr. Mayfield is innocent - and I sincerely hope that will be the case - then he deserves one h-u-g-e apology. Because I recognize the slippery slopes here, in all directions.

But if he's guilty - and I mean of the Madrid bombing, not some other penny-ante horseshit - then he gets what he deserves. I only hope his family would be spared.

Anyway, them's my ramblings. Out of curiousity, now that I've opened my kimono (ugh) ... what do you think happened; i.e your best guess?

Posted by: ras at May 21, 2004 09:19 PM

All of which leaves me wondering why the police would go public on this guy.

--it benefits a general environment of prejudice against Muslims? It seems little different from the Eunice Stone scare really. Or the silly July 4th scare about the 'terrorists' in the NW Airlines cabin bathroom on flight something or other 2 years ago. The public is made nervous unnecessarily, media increase their commercial values, police get publicity, the general "war on terror" is reinforced, and of course terrorists watch all this and can comfortably assume we don't know what we're doing. It's a mix of all these factors.

Posted by: calibar at May 22, 2004 06:37 AM

Calibar,

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. You are clearly reasoning from a conclusion. And I have no hard evidence to definitively support or refute my own position.

But I do recommend, as a learning exercise for both of us, that we review Mr. Mayfield's visibility in a few months' time. If he has gone mysteriously incommunicado, I think it would tip the probabilities towards a theory that the police were leaning on the guy as a way of getting him to talk.

Thanks for the discussion. All the best.

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