May 18, 2004

Hmm...Sarin

You may already know a shell containing three or four liters of sarin was found in Iraq. I'm not sure what to say about this, but it's one of those things that probably ought to be noted.

Christopher Hitchens basically says it all right here.

So a Sarin-infected device is exploded in Iraq, and across the border in Jordan the authorities say that nerve and gas weapons have been discovered for use against them by the followers of Zarqawi, who was in Baghdad well before the invasion. Where, one idly inquires, did these toys come from? No, it couldn't be.
But he doesn't quite say it all. James Lileks says the rest.
So they found a sarin shell? Eh. Halliburton put it there, it was old, and besides everyone knew Saddam had WMD, and we gave him the sarin anyway, and it would be news if we found 400 shells, but if they were old undeclared shells they wouldn’t count because they weren’t a threat to us anyway – do you know that most of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi? Why aren’t we invading them? Not that we should, that would TOTALLY be about oil, anyway, did you read Doonesbury today? He had this giant hand talking in a press conference. This big giant floating hand. I think it was a reprint. I like when he has that bald dude who’s in charge of some Iraqi city. Bald dude is like, wasted.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at May 18, 2004 11:20 PM
Comments

A link containing some good info can be found here:
http://www.overpressure.com/archives/week_2004_05_16.html#000819

It appears that this shell was post GWI, and thus a clear violation of various UN resolutions. But then, we already knew that. The question is, are there others, and where?

Posted by: FH at May 18, 2004 11:34 PM

Come on MT, admit it, you're the illegitimate son of the late great Scoop Jackson aren't you? Your last two posts have been stellar. We might not agree on much domestically (I loathe big government), but in time like these politics really should stop at the water's edge and your sensible attitudes internationally are much more reasonable than the isolationist tendencies of some of my fellow right wingers.

Strange how political alliances shift sometimes.

Posted by: spc67 at May 18, 2004 11:36 PM

The question is, are there others, and where?

Yeah, my fear is Zarqawi is asking the guys who set it off where they got it, and he's going to comb through the inventory of wherever that was. UGH.

Posted by: spc67 at May 18, 2004 11:37 PM

spc67: Come on MT, admit it, you're the illegitimate son of the late great Scoop Jackson aren't you?

Well, he and I are from the same part of the country. More than half my friends are Scoop Jackson Democrats. Maybe it's in the water out here or something. It might also be a generational thing. I was three years old when the Vietnam War ended.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 18, 2004 11:43 PM

And of course there's all the herbicide they found in most of the Iraqi ammo dumps, mostly places where it's too dry for a vegetation problem. Let's just ignore the fact that chemically, herbicide and nerve agent are rather similar...both would do evil things to the human body.

Posted by: gordie at May 19, 2004 12:04 AM

To be fair to the more sane side of the anti-war debate, this actually seems to validate one of their arguments against the invasion: there was no evidence that Saddam had distributed his WMD to terrorists yet, but if we attacked, they suggested, he'd have nothing to lose, and start handing them out to terrorists as a kind of final, Ricardo Montalban-in-a-mullet death blow.

Saddam didn't use WMD on us during the war, but it looks like terrorists who may or may not have been affiliated with him before it are. Not a comforting thought, because if the sarin canister is in fact part of a larger stockpile, who the fuck has the rest of it? Not much comfort to put the "Bush lied about WMD" canard to bed when that scary ass hypothetical is still prowling around.

Posted by: Wagner at May 19, 2004 01:14 AM

A question: if the Bush Administration had sought to justify the invasion on the basis that Iraq had sarin artillery shells, would the American public have bought it?

Posted by: Mork at May 19, 2004 01:28 AM

"You may already know a shell containing three or four liters of sarin was found in Iraq."

No, I know that something slightly different happened, and you can actually tell if you read the entire Fox story, despite the misleading leding claim you are referring to.

What actually happened is that a shell containing three or four liters of precursor chemicals, more or less harmless in binary form until mixed, was used as an IED. Which makes it pretty harmless to anyone not standing right over it. As witness that no one was actually harmed.

The shells mix the precursors upon impact after being launched from a cannon. When simply set off by explosive, very little of the chemicals are mixed, and on traces of sarin are created; further, depending upon the strength of the explosion, much or most of the chemicals will simply be incinerated, as well, yet further lessening the danger.

This isn't to minimize that these aren't shells you'd want sitting around in the living room, nor would you want to walk over to the explosion and start breathing deeply.

But your above statement simply isn't true, any more than my saying that my possessing a container of separate sub-containers of sodium and chloride means I have a container of table salt. Or that I'm going to douse you with some hydrogen and oxygen so you can enjoy your shower of water.

Posted by: Gary Farber at May 19, 2004 03:09 AM

FH says: "It appears that this shell was post GWI, and thus a clear violation of various UN resolutions."

Could we have a cite, of some sort, for this, please? Beyond "I always knew this."

Thanks. Because it goes against what every expert in every story I've seen so far has said, though everyone appears to be speculating so far.

Posted by: Gary Farber at May 19, 2004 03:11 AM

But your above statement simply isn't true, any more than my saying that my possessing a container of separate sub-containers of sodium and chloride means I have a container of table salt. Or that I'm going to douse you with some hydrogen and oxygen so you can enjoy your shower of water.
Posted by Gary Farber at May 19, 2004 03:09 A
****************************************************
Rather lame analogies. More like finding a military grade rifle with a full clip not loaded than, chlorine and sodium or hydrogen and oxygen, btw if you did get doused by raw hydrogen and oxygen the reaction would do a bit more harm than getting you wet.

Posted by: DanKauffman at May 19, 2004 03:17 AM

What actually happened is that a shell containing three or four liters of precursor chemicals, more or less harmless in binary form until mixed, was used as an IED.

Does it hurt when your head strikes the sand with that much force?

Semper Fi

Posted by: RickM at May 19, 2004 03:29 AM

Mork,

A question: if the Bush Administration had sought to justify the invasion on the basis that Iraq had sarin artillery shells, would the American public have bought it?

So even if invading Iraq is the right thing to do, we should only do it if Bush sells it for the right reasons? What kind of argument is that?

Posted by: HA at May 19, 2004 03:39 AM

Two different questions, HA.

Invading Iraq may or may not have been the right thing to do ... time will tell, but the "yes" case has a hell of a lot of ground to make up.

As a completely separate matter, should Bush be held accountable for misleading the American public about the reasons for war and booted from office? Absolutely.

Posted by: Mork at May 19, 2004 04:00 AM

You know,I can already hear the counterargument:"Do you mean we went to war because of a couple of old shells,which when detonated,didn't even kill anybody?"

The US government has now had a full year's time to interrogate the scientists,the top Baathists (including "Dr. Germ"),the secret police of the former regime.Saddam himself is in US custody,reportedly fearful of what his former victims will do to him when he is turned over to the Iraqis.

Yet despite whatever methods,lures and threats have been turned on the detainees by the CIA,not one of them has come forward claiming knowledge about WMD programs or hidden stockpiles.

You can't run a weapons program,or deliberately conceal large amounts of the stuff,without a lot of people being in the loop.Surely,someone from inside the Saddam regime would have spilled the beans by now.

Which leaves us where,exactly?Well,the Bush administration sold the war on basis of Saddam Hussein's ongoing threat to the US and the world in general.There was no such threat,and the people who peddled it shoud take responsibility for their claims.

The remaining justification for the war is the one this administration could have taken from the beginning:that the ousting of Saddam was the right thing to do on behalf of the Iraqis themselves,especially concerning the despicable failures of the first Bush administration during the 1991 uprising.

Which was the main reason I supported the war,BTW.I hope I wasn't fooled on that,either.

Posted by: Jussi Hämäläinen at May 19, 2004 04:03 AM

"Does it hurt when your head strikes the sand with that much force?"

It's always revealing when someone posts with no informational content, but simply with ad hominem.

Do you have any sort of policy on acceptable and unacceptable commenting practices, Michael?

Posted by: Gary Farber at May 19, 2004 04:04 AM

Damn!Not "either",but "too".My English!I hope there will be a free Iraq in the near future,but I wouldn't put it past Bush that he might start to define down democracy soon,as George Will suggested recently.

Posted by: Jussi Hämäläinen at May 19, 2004 04:18 AM

Farber-

Stop whining.

You expect what when you get caught carrying water for the D.U.?

Posted by: DennisThePeasant at May 19, 2004 05:07 AM

"What actually happened is that a shell containing three or four liters of precursor chemicals, more or less harmless in binary form until mixed, was used as an IED. Which makes it pretty harmless to anyone not standing right over it. As witness that no one was actually harmed."

NBC weapons, with emphasis on the C in this case are created, shipped, and loaded in binary form. The two chemicals seperately will not outright kill you (although they can cause caustic burns & mild flu like symptoms in inhaled). This is done so that the muntion is relatively safe for transport & storage. It doesnt become a true nerve/blister/blood agent until its fired.

Upon firing (be it released from an aircraft or fired in shell form) the plastic bladders break and the chemical uses the momentum from either the freefall bomb/art. shell to mix the two chemicals (binary form here) and now becomes the agent in question.

So just because the idiot terrorist didnt know how to properly use the munition, doesnt change the fact that it is a chemical weapon.

I usually dont pick someones post apart, but you either have zero clue as how most nerve agents work or you are flat out lying. Stick to subject you know Farber...

Posted by: Ham On Rye at May 19, 2004 05:42 AM

I love how the immediate reaction of the right-wingers is to start imagining how left-wingers must be acting. And vice-versa.

I guess the blogosphere is not the place for a serious analysis of whether Saddam posed a "grave and growing" threat to the United States that made invading and occupying Iraq the best response.

Posted by: Oberon at May 19, 2004 05:45 AM

Gary,

What is the purpose of this statement?

>>"You may already know a shell containing three >>or four liters of sarin was found in Iraq."

"No, I know that something slightly different happened, and you can actually tell if you read the entire Fox story, despite the misleading leding claim you are referring to."

Are you somehow claiming that the fact this was a binary shell somehow makes this any less a WMD?

Posted by: Matthew Cromer at May 19, 2004 05:59 AM

Quoth Michael on Hitch:

"But he doesn't quite say it all."

And as we now see above with Gary's dismissal of binary ordnance...

What would the point be? For those who grasp the issue, the "all" isn't necessary. For those who must dismiss it at all costs, no "all" in the world would be enough.

Posted by: Bill at May 19, 2004 06:37 AM

It will take about a month more of "Bush Lied" before everyone on the left gets the memo. Even then, the justifications will change. See Binary exposive boy above. The left is always very good at coming up with a new reason why the current state of the world isn't good enough for them. The question is how many times can they do it before everyone except the most partisian in America gets sick of it.

I think that line got crossed several months ago. From this point it, its all entertainment.

Posted by: Roark at May 19, 2004 06:51 AM

ya know you're reaching when ya hear quotes like this from a person who would love to be able to find out 'he was right' , but still says:
"It was probably just scavenged from one of the 125-plus ammunition storage points that still remain," David Kay said.

I also find it interesting that Rummy is saying the test could well be a mistake (as all others have been in the past when blogistan went wild about the latest 'find'). Give up the WMD search guys, deal with it, like the Gulf of Tonkin ya been snagged.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 06:54 AM

I would have thought it would have been difficult to tell how old this shell was. It detonated and got scattered across a wide area as shrapnel, how could someone tell if the shell was made before or after GW1? This is not an attempt to score a point, but a serious question.

It is an important distinction as it is possible that the Iraqis buried this shell after GW1 in an attempt to keep some of their chemical weapons stocks. They could have then forgotten about the existence of that particular cache till it got dug up by some insurgents who thought it was just a normal artillery shell. Saddam's regime was not the most efficient place on earth, so losing the records of something like this is a possibility.

The main questions for me are, how many other shells like this are out there and do the terrorists know what they've got now?

Posted by: sam at May 19, 2004 07:23 AM

how could someone tell if the shell was made before or after GW1? This is not an attempt to score a point, but a serious question.

--stop asking serious questions, the only important thing is to score points for the salespitch. stick to the line, "saddam placed sarin bombs in the gulf of tonkin and nearly killed millions of our boys as a result!".

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 07:25 AM

They could have then forgotten about the existence of that particular cache till it got dug up by some insurgents who thought it was just a normal artillery shell.

--even more interesting is how the war lobby goes wild over such a 'find' and ignores the complicity of our 'friends of democracy' like pakistan who ship out god knows how much wmd related materials to terrorists and governments that are our official enemies of the day. no end to that irony.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 07:27 AM

Huh?

So what's your point? Do you know something Kimmit doesn't?

If so, out with it!

Posted by: asdf at May 19, 2004 07:29 AM

Wagner:

To be fair to the more sane side of the anti-war debate, this actually seems to validate one of their arguments against the invasion: there was no evidence that Saddam had distributed his WMD to terrorists yet, but if we attacked, they suggested, he'd have nothing to lose, and start handing them out to terrorists as a kind of final, Ricardo Montalban-in-a-mullet death blow.

Gary Farber:

What actually happened is that a shell containing three or four liters of precursor chemicals, more or less harmless in binary form until mixed, was used as an IED. Which makes it pretty harmless to anyone not standing right over it. As witness that no one was actually harmed.

I started giggling when I read Wagner's comment, and actually laughed when I read Mr. Farber's.

Wagner's position is at least defensible. I don't agree with it, but it's internally consistent, even if it isn't consistent with scads of UN Resolutioins.

But the idea that the shell didn't really contain a WMD because the bozos who used it didn't shake it up is simply hilarious. By that logic, the United States doesn't have any nuclear weapons because none of them are currently exploding.

Get a grip guys. There are much better anti-war arguments than these.

Posted by: Mark Poling at May 19, 2004 07:37 AM

It might also be a generational thing. I was three years old when the Vietnam War ended.

Michael, I think that statement right there could be the key to a lot of the division in this country.

And it's not just young/old, but how you or your family related to Vietnam that tells a lot about your political views.

When did the war end, '71? I was 4. I know what you mean.

Posted by: Barry at May 19, 2004 07:44 AM

Regarding the binary shell itself, that actually can help tell us something about the shells origin.

Sarin has a very short shelf life once it is actually mixed up, only lasting a few weeks. Thats assuming that there were no errors in the mixing process and it actually is Sarin and not just a bunch of random chemicals. The precursor chemicals last a lot longer and are fairly stable though. These binary shells are designed to spin in flight, mixing the precursor agents and forming sarin. This avoids the problem of the short lifespan as it only has to last until it hits the target. If the shell had actually contained mixed sarin, it could only have been made a few weeks ago. The fact that it was a binary shell means it could have been manufactured before GW1 and lasted until now.

I do not know if this is the case, but it does mean that the shell could have been made before GW1. I'm hoping that this actually was the case, as it means that the insurgents in Iraq will only have a very limited supply of these shells to use against coalition forces. If it was made post GW1 then there could be a lot more of these shells out there, ready to be used against us.

Posted by: sam at May 19, 2004 07:45 AM

Yay, finally after a year and some months we found a WMD. Of course, we found said WMD after it exploded. Do we know that this was one of Saddam', or was it from another country? Do we know if insurgents or terrorists used it? If the insurgents used it, where the f*** did they get it?

If the terrorists used it, then you can bet that they have more (they wouldn't waste a sarin device as an IED). In fact, if the terrorists in Iraq now are Al Qedea, finding only one shell, would havge resulted in it being slipped out and sent to a more destructive position.

If the insurgents used it, where the helll did they get it from? Is there a hidden cache of WMD's? If so, why haven't they used several of them? I think that 5 sarin canisters of this size, fired into the right US millitary camps would decimate our forces and demoralize the US War effort. I know that, you know that and so do the Insurgents and Terrorists.

This find, if it's factual (which I'm sure we'll know soon) leaves a myrriad of very scary questions. Scary for the troops in Iraq and even more scary for any potential targets of Bin Laden and company.

Ick

Ratatosk

Posted by: Ratatosk at May 19, 2004 07:49 AM

Gary, you were asking for a cite about why the shell was produced post Iran/Iraq war:

Binary munitions undeclared

Iraq never declared any binary 155mm artillery shells. In fact, they never claimed any filled with sarin at all in the UNSCOM Final report (Find on "Munitions declared by Iraq as remaining"). Not declared as existing at the end of the Gulf War, not having been destroyed in the Gulf War, not having been destroyed unilaterally. The only binary munitions claimed by the Iraqis were aerial bombs and missile warheads. Not in an artillery shell.

Could this be an Iranian dud from the Iran-Iraq War?

According to this source, Iran did use chemical weapons in the Iran-Iraq War. However, they are not suspected of production of G-nerve agent (sarin or tabun) until 1993, and not suspected of binary chemical capability until 1995.
So this is definitely not an Iranian dud. It has to be a post Iran-Iraq War, post Desert Storm product.

(Too many links in the original posts to rebuild here. I Highly recommend you check them out.)

Posted by: Mark Poling at May 19, 2004 07:51 AM

Mark,
Now that is some very interesting information, particularly the part about the non-declaration of binary artillery shells to the UN. If this really did come from a post GW1 weapons program is there any way to find out how long that program ran for.

Did it putter out after a couple of years due to lack of resources or was it still going right up until the war? If we can find that out, we might be able to make better estimates of how many of these shells might be out there.

Posted by: sam at May 19, 2004 08:02 AM

I think that 5 sarin canisters of this size, fired into the right US millitary camps would decimate our forces and demoralize the US War effort.

--not very likely, it really takes a lot of hard work to make it work under very precise circumstances. blowing it up in a subway is one thing, throwing it into an armed camp is quite a nother.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 08:05 AM

So what's your point? Do you know something Kimmit doesn't?

--i didn't know kimmit knew much of anything. you'd not know it from his press conferences.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 08:06 AM

This find, if it's factual (which I'm sure we'll know soon) leaves a myrriad of very scary questions. Scary for the troops in Iraq and even more scary for any potential targets of Bin Laden and company.

--nota bene the troops on the ground aren't doing anything differently now than they were doing a few days ago. much like their march to baghdad when they were not all that concerned about chemcial warfare either, even in the fake 'red zone'.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 08:08 AM

uh-oh, call in damage control, NOW!!

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 08:21 AM

That's right calibar, when the going gets tough change the topic.

Posted by: Mark Poling at May 19, 2004 08:27 AM

going gets tought, you gotta be kidding. this shell from a decade ago is 'going gets tough'? i don't quite think so. then again we've heard this rhetoric everytime a big 'find' was reported by the stenographers known as the media.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 08:35 AM

I like this comment from Juan Cole:

"Another bombing in Baghdad near US troops on Saturday had involved the use of sarin gas. Two US soldiers suffered slight reactions to the gas. This was probably just an old 1980s shell of the sort used against the Kurds and Iranians, and nothing suggests many of these remain or are still operative. The insurgents who used it may not even have known what it was. (It was not marked). A couple left-over stray such shells does not prove that there were WMD in Iraq in any signifcant sense. No doubt it will set off a frenzy among the latter-day Juan Ponce de Leones looking vainly for the Fountain of WMDs. It is virtually a non-story."

Big 'find', nothing changes in soldiers' precautions for 'chemcal weapons', ho hum

http://www.w3schools.com/Visit W3Schools

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 08:41 AM

I think this is a non-story. One chemical weapon albiet used improperly does not constitute a WMD. Actually, the thousands of AK-47s, armed Iraqis and roadside bombs would more properly be considered WMD. Then again, the US army is the largest WMD in the world.

My point is that the administration's WMD argument was always placed in the context of it being a grave threat to Americans. This point should not be lost amidst the details. Should we actually find large stockpiles of WMDs in a form that would really be a grave threat to Americans, then the administration can say "we told you so".

I'm still waiting.

Posted by: Marc at May 19, 2004 09:02 AM

Well, at least you're back on topic, calibar.

Sam, the number of these things that turn up will be important to the folks in Iraq, but strategically it doesn't make much difference. From my reading it seems these shells are really dangerous only when fired from an artillery piece. I've not heard of the resistance using anything bigger than mortars, so the shells they do get will be about as potent as this one. (Doesn't mean that the shells might not be disassembled for the binary agents, but that strikes me as both technically challenging and extremely dangerous.)

And as for Juan, I'm sure Saddam only made two or three of these things. As lawn ornaments or something.

Posted by: Mark Poling at May 19, 2004 09:12 AM

And as for Juan, I'm sure Saddam only made two or three of these things. As lawn ornaments or something.

--I seem to remember you guys saying that a few months back when the last big 'find' occurred that later turned out to be nothing, and the one before that and before that ad infinitum.
It's amazing how David Kay didn't find these things while he was there, and he really had motivation to find them, [i.e. stockpiles, not a stray bomb here or there produced over a decade ago and ineffective].
btw ,speaking of ignoring the topic. i notice you guys ignore your friends in pakistan's role in the distribution of wmds to official enemies of the day. how is that, yet you are up in arms about the significance of a fluke ied in Iraq.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 09:19 AM

Mark,

I was thinking more about these shells being used against the troops on the ground than targets outside Iraq. But, if we're thinking about possible effects of these shells outside Iraq, then they could fall into the hands of other groups which have access to artillary pieces. For example, Syria would probably like to get hold of a few of these things. Hell, Hamas could really do some damage with some binary shells.

Posted by: sam at May 19, 2004 09:24 AM

Actually, Marc, the administration's argument was that we did not know what Saddam's WMD capabilities were, and that the risks of not knowing were too great to ignore. That's one part of the Bush Doctrine: we will not wait for a threat to be imminent before acting on it.

The fact that Iraq never declared this type of weapon supports rather nicely the idea that we couldn't trust Uncle Saddam very far, now doesn't it?

Posted by: Mark Poling at May 19, 2004 09:24 AM

"The fact that Iraq never declared this type of weapon supports rather nicely the idea that we couldn't trust Uncle Saddam very far, now doesn't it?"

No, but then trusting any government is a fools bet, including our own.

But don't mind me, I'm just a whacko.

Tosk

Posted by: Ratatosk at May 19, 2004 09:30 AM

Sam, assuming this isn't bogus (give calibar his due, this is a single isolated incident with a small number of players, sort of like Abu Ghraib back in January) you're right about the danger of the shells getting outside Iraq. For the soldiers and civilians inside Iraq I hope it isn't as much of a problem (the lack of artilery pieces on the side of the insurgents makes the shells much less usable, I think).

But Juan Cole's dismissive "fountain of death hunt" notwithstanding, this probably went way up on everyone's priority list. If they're around to be found, I think we stand a good chance of finding them now.

If there's a cache, chances are it's not too far from where the roadside bomb was set up. But since the shells are unmarked, how do you tell what's a normal round and what's a sarin round? There's got to be a lot of chatter about this among the insurgents, and a lot of intelligence resources assigned to tracking it.

As the resident spambot says, time will tell.

Posted by: Mark Poling at May 19, 2004 09:34 AM

Hey Rat, moving to Montana soon? I hear there's good money in raising dental floss.

:)

Mark

Posted by: Mark Poling at May 19, 2004 09:38 AM

Mark,

Well, probably not Montana. I hear scary things about the experiments they do on people out there. Maybe I should move to New Mexico and publish a newsletter that details all the conspiracies I know about.

;-)

Ratatosk

Posted by: Ratatosk at May 19, 2004 09:47 AM

Mark Poling writes: "The fact that Iraq never declared this type of weapon supports rather nicely the idea that we couldn't trust Uncle Saddam very far, now doesn't it?"

The fact that they never declared this kind of weapon and the U.N. inspectors couldn't find it in two separate tries (the first 'try' being several years in length), and despite finding lots of other WMD, suggests that it has some other source than Saddam.

Everything is pretty speculative at this point, so forgive me for a little speculation.

We've had al-Zarqawi taking (or being given) credit for an appalling execution of an American, with the transcript of the speech translated as "al Qaeda" where the voice is actually saying "al qaed" - "those who sit around and do nothing."

We now have traces of sarin precursor found in the process of trying to dispose of an artillery shell. Al Zarqawi's group operated in the Kurdish north to a great degree, where gas was used against the Kurds.

Some terrorists in Iraq want us to stay. They need propaganda victories, and without American targets, they can't get them. Al Zarqawi's group may be one such terror group - Al Zarqawi is a Jordanian - he's not into Iraq for the sake of Iraq, he's into it for the sake of jihadi street cred, so the more Americans the merrier as far as he's concerned. If his group had their hands on a captive like Nick Berg, what better use for him for getting Americans to stay than to execute him in a very public, very disgusting way, when there's a scandal throwing the whole adventure into doubt? And if they had a nerve gas shell on their hands, wouldn't they love to vindicate the American invasion by planting it? Anything to keep Iraq a target-rich zone for themselves.

A nerve gas shell from ... where? Well, maybe it's just an unspent shell left over from Saddam's retribution against the Kurds, or from when Iran marched into Halabja escorting Kurdish separatists, sparking the battle using gas that killed 5,000 or so civilians? Does it count as Saddam hidden WMD if someone else, like Zarqawi's group, scooped it up and held onto it?

As for the investigation: we should understand what the early release of incomplete information means in wars like this. The point is to leave a big impression on page one, and any retractions and corrrections on page 5. After all, for about a month after the invasion, many Americans (around 30%) remained convinced that Iraq had used WMD against American troops, and probably only because they caught a glimpse of Ted Koppel talking through a gas mask.

If I'm right, score one for a terrorist: al Zarqawi.

Anyway, by all means, let's do Monday-morning quarterbacking on the moral/immoral case for invasion. By all means, let's bicker over ambiguous evidence of vestigial WMD. Let's do anything but squarely face the only issue that matters now: whether or not we had a moral case for going in, we have a moral case for staying at least as long as it takes to make sure that we don't leave Iraq on the precipice of civil war. No moral case for going in will mean anything now if the upshot is millions of dead Iraqis, even if by their own hands.

So the only real question is whether we've got people we can trust on that job. Wolfowitz sounds like he's being honest, at least. Powell sounds like he'd be even more honest if they'd let him. And I'm thinking: over the side with the rest of them, Bush included. If Rumsfeld would trust someone like Cambone - who sounds weirder than even Richard Clarke in a bad dream - with the fate of prisoners in Iraq, then I don't trust Rummy farther than I can throw a nerve gas shell. And I don't trust the judgment of the guy who entrusted Rummy with so much.

Posted by: Michael Turner at May 19, 2004 10:00 AM

Just want to say that the Lileks quote is pretty stupid. This is the fifth or sixth time there has been a breathless announcement that they finally found the WMD. Why shouldn't reasonable people be a little skeptical at this point? Why would Totten think that such a bloated and obvious attempt at sarcasm has any relevance? Wow, Lileks can poke fun at a straw man. That's very insightful.

Posted by: Vanya at May 19, 2004 10:09 AM

As for stockpiles,

Can someone explain to me why there were huge quantities of 55 gallon drums filled with insecticide buried in bunkers? Did Saddam really have THAT bad a problem with cockroaches? Or does Occam's razor suggest another explanation for all those neuro-toxic chemicals.

PS a google search on "insecticide precursors" provides some interesting links. . .

http://www.fluoridealert.org/pesticides/sodium.bifluoride-page.htm

Posted by: Matthew Cromer at May 19, 2004 10:10 AM

Michael Turner,

I would like you to explain what the huge quantities of insecticide in 55 gallon drums we have found all over Iraq in weapons depots was for.

Posted by: Matthew Cromer at May 19, 2004 10:12 AM

Micheal,

Well said and nicely written post.

Matthew,

I dunno, you dunno... but I bet you have a guess that fits with your view of reality.

Tosk

Posted by: Ratatosk at May 19, 2004 10:16 AM

From my expericence in the field of NBC weapons, sarin gas is an insecticide derivative. But I am not going to go as far as to say a 55gal drum of insectiside is evidence of anything other then a bug problem.

The spiders and roaches over their do get quite large though...

Posted by: Ham On Rye at May 19, 2004 10:19 AM

That rascally Zarquawi, using reverse reverse psychology. Thank you Mike Turner for the heads up.

Peace.

Posted by: Mnm at May 19, 2004 10:25 AM

Ratatosk,

In re pesticide, nerve agents and insecticides are classes of organophosphate compounds that generally work by inhibiting autonomic nerve signals that control stuff like breathing. The very strong similarities between the two is a major problem in stopping the proliferation of chemical weapons, as there is not a lot of work involved in converting otherwise legal pesticides into chemical weapons. For my money, I would be willing to speculate that the insecticides found in bunkers were supposed to be nerve agents, but the Iraqis muffed up the processing.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 10:37 AM

BRD,

I would speculate that you may be right. But its only speculation. We don't know the full story, we know what the Administration decides to declassify and usually only how the media reports what the Administration decides to declassify. We see through a glass, darkly.

Tosk

Posted by: Ratatosk at May 19, 2004 11:04 AM

Depending on which "insecticides" have been found, they could well be 1/2 of a binary nerve agent, the other half of which is an alcohol compound. Like the binary agent in the IED 155mm shell, for instance.

Certainly it seems beyond obvious that these chemical stockpiles were not used for locust control in hardened bunkers.

Posted by: Matthew Cromer at May 19, 2004 11:10 AM

DISCLAIMER: Don't quote me on this, because this is off the top of my head and I don't feel like doing substantiating research. This is purely background information for y'all.

In general, nerve agents are classed as either persistent or non-persistent, based on, well, whether or not they persist for long periods of time as effective chemical weapons. Factors that affect persistence include wind, evaporation and sunlight. Mostly what happens is that the agent dissapates (through over-rapid evaporation) to non-lethal concentrations in sun, etc. Little of the loss of effectiveness is due to direct breakdown of the chemicals themselves (although sunlight is a factor in this). Thus, it is possible to store nerve agents for substantial periods of time in shells.

However, nerve agents also tend to corrode their holding containers (the manufacture of some types of agents require the use of glass-lined reaction vessels due to their corrosive character). Thus, when large amounts are stored in weaponized form in a stockpile, there is a substantial chance that leakeage could contaminate your entire stockpile. Additionally, live nerve agents are a bit of a pain to move around, since the hazards of mishandling are so high.

These two factors prompted the development of binary nerve agents. As mentioned in an above post by Ham On Rye, the binary chemicals are no picnic either and are toxic, but, they aren't as nastily lethal and don't tend to chew up their containers as much.

So, the consequences for storage, and so on, make binary munitions the preferred chemical weapons choice.

Trying to argue that something is or isn't a chemical weapon based on whether it's a unitary or binary munition is, frankly, asinine. Rather like discussing whether or not an artillery shell is really an artillery shell based on whether or not it has a contact fuze or a proximity fuze.

Some of the reports that have been circulating about suggest that the shell wasn't marked differently from a normal high explosive round (as is practice pretty much everywhere else) has some interesting implications. Among them would be the notion that there could be large numbers of them mixed in existing stockpiles of artillery shells. This would makes sense from the standpoint of trying to conceal them from inspectors while still having rapid access to them.

In any case, it is extraordinarily unlikely that either Syria or Iran (or anyone else) would release a chemical artillery shell to terrorists simply because it would have a huge political cost plus leaving behind a possibly massive amount of forensic evidence. Also, if they were releasing something, it would be utterly bizzare to give them a binary munition, since you want to avoid complex systems in that kind of operating environment. Finally, it would make a lot more sense to kit them out with a non-lethal unitary agent like a blistering agent, simply by virtue of the fact that it is much more graphic without quite the political cost of nerve agents.

Finally, Iran and Syria both possess large stockpiles of chemical munitions. In particular, Syria has a rather advanced chemical weapons program to serve as a strategic counterbalance to Israel's nuclear program. In fact, they are currently thought to possess cluster warheads for their SCUD missiles filled with VX. VX is a persistent third-generation nerve agent which is part of the US arsenal. (NB: fourth generation agents are not confirmed to exist and only fragementary rumors support their existence at all).

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 11:11 AM

Why are you still talking about sarin? Who cares? The real issue on Iraq now is the unspeakable war crimes, atrocities, and genocides committed by American warmongers at Abu Grahib. Your attempts to side track the important issues with some blurb about sarin will not work with the free press and the American people.

Posted by: JJ Walker at May 19, 2004 11:13 AM

Calibar-

1) Aside from the fact that inspections are difficult precisely because the other guy is trying to hide stuff, the Kay report demonstrated violations of disarmament conditions, in that he retained latent production capabilities.

2) No one has disregarded A.Q. Kahn and Pakistan. It simply stands that Pakistan and nuclear weapons are entirely, profoundly irrelevant to a discussion of Iraq and non-persistent nerve agents.

3) Juan Cole's post which you quote above elides over the fundamental critical point. Disarmament does not mean mostly, sort of. Failure to disarm is failure to disarm. If I have a loaded revolver and take out five bullets, I still have a loaded gun, regardless of whether or not I still retain a "significant amount" of bullets.

4) Your assertion that shooting five shells into a camp is a "it really takes a lot of hard work to make it work under very precise circumstances." is incorrect. Essentially, given the shells (and proximity fuzes) one need wait only for the right weather conditions (night, no wind, moderate temperatures) and simply fire the shells as one would any other sort of shells. Conversely, the statement that "lowing it up in a subway is one thing" is also wrong, in that the big thing on use of chemical weapons is dispersal - concentrated enough to kill while maximizing coverage. Artillery airbursts are good at this, if nothing else, because they are designed for that purpose. Subways are not designed for nerve gas dispersal nor are there a lot of systems built for that purpose. The fact that the Ayum Shinrikio attack in subway didn't kill thousands is a testament to the difficulties in using chemicals in a terrorist attack.

5) Where on God's green earth did you come up with the notion that the troops on the way to Baghdad weren't concerned about chemical weapons and took no precautions. How would that even make sense on any level? Even if I go so far to assume that administration knew that there were no WMD, why not tell the troops that WMD are present anyways, simply as part of the ruse? You've made an unsubtantiated claim here that doesn't even stand under the weight of its own logic.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 11:39 AM

So the questions still remain:

Was this from an Iraqi stockpile?

If yes, then it's likely that whoever used this one has others. If no, then its likely that whoever got this one from 'outside' has more.

Who set it off?

If it was true insurgents, Iraqis trying to chase off the Americans, then they may have found it, used it and had no idea what it really was.

If it was terrorists (those who have an agenda beyond Iraq) did they waste their only precious WMD on a roadside bomb, or because they have more that are already being passed throught their organization?

These are the questions we should be worried about now. It doesn't matter why Bush went in, what he's doing there, how he plans to get out, of if he made the whole thing up.

Sarin gas munitions have been found. Are there more, who has them and what the fuck are they gonna do with them?

Of course, if this was a plant by forces eager to support the WMD theory, then who knows what we'll see next (just thrown in for good Paranoia).

Posted by: Ratatosk at May 19, 2004 12:00 PM

Certainly it seems beyond obvious that these chemical stockpiles were not used for locust control in hardened bunkers.

I thought in Saddam's dictionary, locusts/cockroaches/other pests = Kurds. In fact, there's probably plenty of others in the Middle East who believe in that little mathematical theorem.

Posted by: jrr at May 19, 2004 12:02 PM

The fact that Iraq never declared this type of weapon supports rather nicely the idea that we couldn't trust Uncle Saddam very far, now doesn't it?

--uhm, gee, it's just absolutely impossible that there were shells that were not accounted for due to a decade of something called the chaos of war? I mean that kind of possibility just doesn't enter into the imagination at all, eh? It's just impossible, so so so difficult to entertain as a possibility. The only possible answer is an evil horrible super powerful monster that was about to take over the world with his powerful army [that none of his neighbors demonstrated that high a concern about, but let's forget about little matters like that]

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 12:03 PM

Calibar,

Did you trust Saddam? I'm not baiting you, I'm just asking. You sneered when someone said we couldn't trust him, and I just find that rather odd. Maybe you're just too eager to be contrary?

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 19, 2004 12:12 PM

Actually, Marc, the administration's argument was that we did not know what Saddam's WMD capabilities were, and that the risks of not knowing were too great to ignore.

--pretty lame, what it does is cause one to ignore real threats in the nations that are our 'friends' like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, etc. Real good strategy there.
----------------------------
Aside from the fact that inspections are difficult precisely because the other guy is trying to hide stuff, the Kay report demonstrated violations of disarmament conditions, in that he retained latent production capabilities.

--actually you're in the realm of speculation. they tried to interrogate, threaten, and pay off every scientist they picked up along the way in the process of the "WMD" hunt. and they've come up with nada.
----------------------------------
No one has disregarded A.Q. Kahn and Pakistan. It simply stands that Pakistan and nuclear weapons are entirely, profoundly irrelevant to a discussion of Iraq and non-persistent nerve agents.

--au contraire, they're far more relevant i'm afraid. in this case you have rummy and kimmit both being far more conservative than you about the implications [outside the usual excited rhetoric about how this 'find' 'proves' saddam was in violation of something or other,which justifies the occupation of Iraq]. i'd be mighty careful there mark, you've been wrong in the past when there were 'discoveries' made. more than likely this time you're exaggarating the significance again. you're not gonna recover from the leading prowar weapons inspector leaving Iraq and saying that nothing significant in the way of stockpiles or wmd finds remains worth pursuing. you just might as well deal with it, there's not gonna be a big hooplah about 'wmds' in Iraq again, especially after what Powell has said on the Russert show, Kay's comments after leaving Iraq, etc. It's no more likely than great excitement about the Gulf of Tonkin "incident".
---------------------------
The fact that the Ayum Shinrikio attack in subway didn't kill thousands is a testament to the difficulties in using chemicals in a terrorist attack.

--be careful, you're contradicting WOT dogma.
--------------------------
Where on God's green earth did you come up with the notion that the troops on the way to Baghdad weren't concerned about chemical weapons and took no precautions. How would that even make sense on any level?

--you tell me, they marched to baghdad in regular outfits, even in the fake "Red Zone". unless you didn't know that elementary fact of the official invasion.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 12:14 PM

Did you trust Saddam? I'm not baiting you, I'm just asking. You sneered when someone said we couldn't trust him, and I just find that rather odd. Maybe you're just too eager to be contrary?

--not at all am i 'just trying to be contrary'. do you trust Sadr? Or the Fallujah fighters [I mean the real fighters, not the fantasized 'foreign fighters' that haunt Dan Senor's mind]. In case you haven't noticed we've been in active negotiations with them for the past several weeks. I'm not sure what it means to say 'trust' Saddam, but as far as being a negotiating possibility, we've negotiated and cooperated with people who were as or more vicious than him in the last two decades.
Do you trust Qaddhafi?

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 12:17 PM

"uhm, gee, it's just absolutely impossible that there were shells that were not accounted for due to a decade of something called the chaos of war?"

If by that you mean the Iran/Iraq war yest that is just absolutely impossible because Iraq did not gain binary chemical shell capability until AFTER that war.

Posted by: Sebastian holsclaw at May 19, 2004 12:23 PM

You will notice that calibar did not actually answer MJT's question. Not that he's under any obligation to, of course.

Posted by: Dave Ruddell at May 19, 2004 12:29 PM

You will notice that calibar did not actually answer MJT's question. Not that he's under any obligation to, of course.

--au contraire, i answered it, in fact far better than you guys in the case of why you ignore the role of the US's 'friends in the WOT" in disseminating WMDs around the world to the US' enemies of the day.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 12:38 PM

If by that you mean the Iran/Iraq war yest that is just absolutely impossible because Iraq did not gain binary chemical shell capability until AFTER that war.

--these couldn't have come from Iran you mean?

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 12:47 PM

raq declared that between 1984 and 1990, it produced 795 tons of Sarin-type agents. About 732 tons were put in bombs, rockets and missile warheads. Iraq further declared that about 650 tons were consumed during the period 1985 to 1988, which included the Iran-Iraq war, and 35 tons were destroyed through aerial bombardment during the Gulf war in 1991.

Iraq destroyed 127 tons of Sarin-type agents under U.N. supervision, including 76 tons in bulk and 51 tons from munitions.

boy oh boy am i ever convinced by the war lobby's salespitch now

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 01:08 PM

Aside from the fact that inspections are difficult precisely because the other guy is trying to hide stuff, the Kay report demonstrated violations of disarmament conditions, in that he retained latent production capabilities.

--actually you're in the realm of speculation. they tried to interrogate, threaten, and pay off every scientist they picked up along the way in the process of the "WMD" hunt. and they've come up with nada.

No, I'm not in the realm of speculation. You seem to be firmly ensconsed in the realm of assertion, but, for starters, you may wish to recall that even the one centrifuge that was discovered is a flat out violation of disrmament conditions. You may wish to read the Kay Report for a good background on what, exactly, was found.

----------------------------------
No one has disregarded A.Q. Kahn and Pakistan. It simply stands that Pakistan and nuclear weapons are entirely, profoundly irrelevant to a discussion of Iraq and non-persistent nerve agents.

--au contraire, they're far more relevant i'm afraid. in this case you have rummy and kimmit both being far more conservative than you about the implications [outside the usual excited rhetoric about how this 'find' 'proves' saddam was in violation of something or other,which justifies the occupation of Iraq]. i'd be mighty careful there mark, you've been wrong in the past when there were 'discoveries' made. more than likely this time you're exaggarating the significance again. you're not gonna recover from the leading prowar weapons inspector leaving Iraq and saying that nothing significant in the way of stockpiles or wmd finds remains worth pursuing. you just might as well deal with it, there's not gonna be a big hooplah about 'wmds' in Iraq again, especially after what Powell has said on the Russert show, Kay's comments after leaving Iraq, etc. It's no more likely than great excitement about the Gulf of Tonkin "incident".

First of all, you directed the above reply at Mark, buy he was not the one who asked the questin. Given that, you may wish to rephrase your response, as much of it is structured around Mark's writings.

---------------------------
The fact that the Ayum Shinrikio attack in subway didn't kill thousands is a testament to the difficulties in using chemicals in a terrorist attack.

--be careful, you're contradicting WOT dogma.

That is a complete nonanswer and is profoundly unrelated to the original point that I was addressing. I therefore, can only imagine you're wrong, you know it, and have no response.

--------------------------
Where on God's green earth did you come up with the notion that the troops on the way to Baghdad weren't concerned about chemical weapons and took no precautions. How would that even make sense on any level?

--you tell me, they marched to baghdad in regular outfits, even in the fake "Red Zone". unless you didn't know that elementary fact of the official invasion.

Basically, I guess you're not familiar with activites related to warfighting in a chemical weapons environment. You don't wear the suit and mask the entire time for two reasons - one is that American suits have an activated charcoal liner which gets worn out over a period of time. Secondly the outfits are incredibly hot, such that people don't like to tromp around in the desert with them day in and day out. You might want to check out some of the literature on MOPP levels (for good background check here and here or for decision making in re MOPP status, click this).

Secondly, how on earth do you decide that the Red Zone is "fake"? It's an imaginary zone to begin with. Calling an imaginary, abstract thing "fake" is just bizzare. It's like calling a Cartesian-coordinate system fake. Abjectly goofy.

----------------------------------

You also wrote:

raq declared that between 1984 and 1990, it produced 795 tons of Sarin-type agents. About 732 tons were put in bombs, rockets and missile warheads. Iraq further declared that about 650 tons were consumed during the period 1985 to 1988, which included the Iran-Iraq war, and 35 tons were destroyed through aerial bombardment during the Gulf war in 1991.

Iraq destroyed 127 tons of Sarin-type agents under U.N. supervision, including 76 tons in bulk and 51 tons from munitions.

Which brings to mind two points: according to your data, they destroyed 812 tons of sarin-type agents, yet produced 795 tons. Explain.

Secondly, the quote you provide explicitly does not mention artillery shells. In the above posts, that exactly the point that the poster made - that they had declared warheads, bombs, and rockets, but no artillery shells.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 01:41 PM

Tosk --

In re the provenance, I would guess that they're Iraqi, simply because they weren't marked. Neither Iran nor Syria would have any reason to conceal or mis-mark their chemical weapons. The only reason I can really imagine someone doing something like that is for purposes of concealment through confusion. Which would, thus, tend to suggest Iraq.

Given the nature of the bursting charge, there may be enough of the shell to conduct some sort of forensic analysis to make some good guesses about the shell's provenance.

With regards to your other points, they are well taken and really the items that should be the focus of this discussion.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 01:45 PM

You don't wear the suit and mask the entire time for two reasons - one is that American suits have an activated charcoal liner which gets worn out over a period of time. Secondly the outfits are incredibly hot, such that people don't like to tromp around in the desert with them day in and day out.

--actually it went beyond that, they didn't really take the 'threat' that seriously. many of the soldiers didn't even have the equipment needed to fend off such an attack in the first place. the whole 'red zone' business was just psyops hype that CNN/FOX happily regurgitated to their viewers.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 01:45 PM

Which brings to mind two points: according to your data, they destroyed 812 tons of sarin-type agents, yet produced 795 tons. Explain.

--I don't see what I have to explain, you're the one who suggested that it was impossible for them to come from a previous war era.
saddam didn't do nearly the damage to us that our good friends in pakistan and saudi arabia did to americans, of course, even when he all of a sudden became the "world's greatest monster since hitler'. i heard that one used today by Sanchez. wow, what a remarkable sense of history on the part of the general!

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 01:49 PM

Calibar,

You will notice that calibar did not actually answer MJT's question. Not that he's under any obligation to, of course.

--au contraire, i answered it, in fact far better than you guys in the case of why you ignore the role of the US's 'friends in the WOT" in disseminating WMDs around the world to the US' enemies of the day.

No, Calibar, you did not answer Michael's question. Let me restate his question, so you can take another swing:

Did you trust Saddam?

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 01:50 PM

Did you trust Saddam?

--i've already answered the question, i would trust saddam no more than others that the US has negotiated with during the last two decades, or been friends with. thus my support for the US if the US had decided to break down and negotiate with him instead of subjecting the Iraqi people to pointless war.
do you trust Sadr? The Fallujah fighters? if not, why aren't you calling Bush and telling him to call off all negotiations immediately and demanding that he refuse to negotiate anything with the evildoers?

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 01:54 PM

now, bravo, do you still trust the pakistani military? the saudi monarchy? Qadaffi? if not, i expect you to get on the phone right away and demand an end to all and any negotiations based on their records of support for terrorism against US citizens.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 01:56 PM

BRD,

Tis folly to think that we'd discuss reasonable points that don't permit us to poke fingers and rant at one another.

Thank you for the nice posts today.

Posted by: Ratatosk at May 19, 2004 02:02 PM

You don't wear the suit and mask the entire time for two reasons - one is that American suits have an activated charcoal liner which gets worn out over a period of time. Secondly the outfits are incredibly hot, such that people don't like to tromp around in the desert with them day in and day out.

--actually it went beyond that, they didn't really take the 'threat' that seriously. many of the soldiers didn't even have the equipment needed to fend off such an attack in the first place. the whole 'red zone' business was just psyops hype that CNN/FOX happily regurgitated to their viewers.

You've now countered by making the following three assertions:

1) "they didn't really take the 'threat' that seriously" - which has what to do with anything? First of all, do you have any support for this assertion? Secondly, even if the soldiers didn't take it seriously, doesn't mean its not a threat. Ask pretty much any military doctor about treating cases of venereal disease and he'll tell you the same.

2) "many of the soldiers didn't even have the equipment needed to fend off such an attack in the first place" Do you have a source for this? Moreover, equipment is allocated to those most likely to expereience a threat (at least in theory) - so the odds that supply clerks in Kuwait were as thoroughly equipped as units in direct assault means little, and says less about your assertion that the whole Red Zone thing was, as you call it, "fake."

3) "the whole 'red zone' business was just psyops hype that CNN/FOX happily regurgitated to their viewers" Again, something other than just flat assertion would be nice. Secondly, hyped by who, for whom, and to what purpose. Going back to the original point, which is that I asserted that they took the threat seriously, while you assert they did not, I am a bit lost as to how this allegation of 'psyops' has anything to do with the original point.

---------------------------

Which brings to mind two points: according to your data, they destroyed 812 tons of sarin-type agents, yet produced 795 tons. Explain.

--I don't see what I have to explain, you're the one who suggested that it was impossible for them to come from a previous war era.
saddam didn't do nearly the damage to us that our good friends in pakistan and saudi arabia did to americans, of course, even when he all of a sudden became the "world's greatest monster since hitler'. i heard that one used today by Sanchez. wow, what a remarkable sense of history on the part of the general!

What I am doing is asking you a question about your source. Your source asserts that while they declared production of 795 tons of agents, they delared they had destroyed 812 tons. This is a discrepancy of 17 tons. Thus, there is, according to your source, something that doesn't ring true about their declarations.

Moreover, you still have failed to address the point I made about declaration of artillery shells.

Third, the amount they declared that they had produced is 795 tons. That wasn't 795 tons over a given period of time. That was just flat out 795 tons -- according to your own source. When it was produced is utterly irrelevant. Moreover, I don't recall any statement in my discussion with you about production dates, and am a bit baffled about what that has to do with anything.

Fourth, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are other conversations. Today, we are discussing chemical weapons in Iraq. Pakistan might be standing behind me with a gun, and Saudi Arabia may be stealing my car, but that still doesn't have to do with the subject at hand. Along similar lines, what Sanchez did or didn't say, still has no bearing on the material you quote as a source.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 02:09 PM

Bush didn't lie about WMDs. Chalabi, Hamsa, and the rest of INC lied to Bush.

Yes Saddam violated U.N. resolutions. Yes he had some chemical weapons despite the inspectors. No he was not a grave and gathering threat to the U.S.

Posted by: Pave the World at May 19, 2004 02:11 PM

Fourth, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are other conversations. Today, we are discussing chemical weapons in Iraq. Pakistan might be standing behind me with a gun, and Saudi Arabia may be stealing my car, but that still doesn't have to do with the subject at hand.

--well, if pakistan were standing behind you with a gun, SA were stealing your car, and Iraq was disarmed and not bothering you in any threatening manner [comparatively], and all you could do was find the energy to attack Iraq...there's an issue of judgement here that is pretty heavy and not one that i'm qualified to treat.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 02:13 PM

Calibar,

Did you trust Saddam?

--i've already answered the question, i would trust saddam no more than others that the US has negotiated with during the last two decades, or been friends with. thus my support for the US if the US had decided to break down and negotiate with him instead of subjecting the Iraqi people to pointless war.
do you trust Sadr? The Fallujah fighters? if not, why aren't you calling Bush and telling him to call off all negotiations immediately and demanding that he refuse to negotiate anything with the evildoers?

Regardless of what you think you may have implied, you had not, in fact, answered the simple question - you replied straight away with another string of questions.

Getting to your actual point, now again meandering off to Sadr and Fallujah still has nothing whatsoever do with anything tied to chemical weapons, declarations, inspection regimes, or Saddam.

If I may be gratiuitously generous, I think you might be getting to the shred of a glimpse of a statement that simply isn't another string of questions which have little bearing on the issue at hand.

You seem to be asserting that Saddam was not sufficiently more dangerous than other extant threats so as to justify the use of force.

Is this your argument?

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 02:15 PM

Moreover, you still have failed to address the point I made about declaration of artillery shells.

--i don't find it terribly relevant, i can't find any experts out there in the field that are up in arms about this latest 'find', that's enough for me. i'd really be careful getting to excited about this find, don't you get tired of being disappointed time and time again after these 'finds' turn out to be insignificant or false alarms?

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 02:15 PM

Getting to your actual point, now again meandering off to Sadr and Fallujah still has nothing whatsoever do with anything tied to chemical weapons, declarations, inspection regimes, or Saddam.

--yes, in a nutshell if Israel wasn't concerned about Saddam as a "wmd" threat, i'd say americans that were caught up in the hype were not that different from those that got into a frenzy over the gulf of tonkin 'incident'.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 02:17 PM

Calibar, what on earth does your response:

well, if pakistan were standing behind you with a gun, SA were stealing your car, and Iraq was disarmed and not bothering you in any threatening manner [comparatively], and all you could do was find the energy to attack Iraq...there's an issue of judgement here that is pretty heavy and not one that i'm qualified to treat.

have to do with the original assertion you made about the soldiers in the field not taking the chemical weapons threat seriously and how that ties into whether or not planning elements planned based on the assumption that chemical weapons could be used by Iraq?

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 02:18 PM

Calibar,

You did not answer my question. Just a simple yes/no answer. Did you or did you not trust Saddam? You sneered at someone who said he wasn't trustworthy, so at this point I am going to assume you did trust him since you cannot bring yourself to tell me that you didn't.

Asking me if I trust Qaddafi is NOT an answer to that question. I'm dealing with the Libyan government right now trying to get a visa for my tentative trip in July. It's a huge pain in the ass. I have to lie to them to get the visa. They are going to follow me around inside the country (assuming they will even let me in) and they certainly will bug my hotel room. That's just how it goes in that country. NO I don't trust Qaddafi.

Did you trust Saddam? No one else in here would have a hard time answering that question, and I'm pretty sure that includes every other anti-war person who leaves comments. You're special for whatever reason. I gave you an "out" and you didn't take it. Let me give you another one...maybe I really AM just misunderstanding you and you're offended by the question. Just clarify for the sake of your own credibility...did you trust Saddam? And (since you're being a pain about it I'm adding another question) why did you sneer at another commentator for saying Saddam was untrustworthy?

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 19, 2004 02:19 PM

Moreover, you still have failed to address the point I made about declaration of artillery shells.

--i don't find it terribly relevant, i can't find any experts out there in the field that are up in arms about this latest 'find', that's enough for me. i'd really be careful getting to excited about this find, don't you get tired of being disappointed time and time again after these 'finds' turn out to be insignificant or false alarms?

The reason that it matters is that it provides evidence of a specific inaccuracy in the declaration. In other words, it is can be assumed that his declarations to the UN were untruthful. I don't find this particularly exciting one way or the other. This is not the end of the world. I imagine the shell to be from undeclared Iraqi stockpiles. It is, still, about a 155 mm shell. I also know that it is too soon to make much determination of the origins of that shell.

And whether or not I'm particularly excited, I am still asking you about your source data on the 795 tons produced and 812 tons destroyed. I am also quite interested in the notion that the original quote was supposed to be, evidently, some ravishing attack or profound statement, but is just plain silly. Do you even remember where you thought you were going with it when you linked it? Is the original point still worth defending, or have you ceeded the argument?

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 02:23 PM

Calibar,

The fact that you can't seem to give a straight answer, and use that same breath which should've been drawn to answer the said question to instead ask another round of queries confounds me.

Here's an easy one;

Coke or Pepsi?

Posted by: jrr at May 19, 2004 02:44 PM

Just for the record, I didn't trust Saddam. There's something about those beady, shifty eyes.

I heard he cheated at Scrabble, too. If you went to the bathroom, he'd peak at your tiles. And maybe feed you to a wood-chipper.

MJT, what's up this Libya trip?

Posted by: Oberon at May 19, 2004 03:14 PM

Oberon: MJT, what's up this Libya trip?

I need a break and Cancun isn't for everybody. Besides, I've never visited a country run by a lunatic before.

I talked my wife into going, if you can believe that.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 19, 2004 03:33 PM

You did not answer my question. Just a simple yes/no answer. Did you or did you not trust Saddam?

--actually you distort the record i'm afraid. i said i did trust him enough to negotiate with. i wouldn't trust him to become a liberal democrat, but that has nothing to do with whether the US would negotiate with him or not.
--------------------
Asking me if I trust Qaddafi is NOT an answer to that question.

--a asked that at the end, not as an answer to your question, which you surely know.
----------------------
I'm dealing with the Libyan government right now trying to get a visa for my tentative trip in July. It's a huge pain in the ass. I have to lie to them to get the visa. They are going to follow me around inside the country (assuming they will even let me in) and they certainly will bug my hotel room. That's just how it goes in that country. NO I don't trust Qaddafi.

--doesn't sound that much different from a number of countries we have close relations with, who cares if one has a hard time getting a visa. and if you think the libyans are going to bug your rorom, you are suffering from delusions of self grandeur. i met many americans and europeans who walked around china with those kinds of bizarre worries, even though nothing they did was anything the Chinese government was concerned about or had reason to be concerned about. to hear some tourists and students, you'd think they were the most important foreigner in China at the time.
-----------------------------
NO I don't trust Qaddafi.

--well, your president does. enough to negotiate with him at least. which is the only thing that matters in the world of international affairs.
--------------------------------
Let me give you another one...maybe I really AM just misunderstanding you and you're offended by the question. Just clarify for the sake of your own credibility...did you trust Saddam?

--trust him to do what? that might be a more serious question. some things i would trust it him in, others i wouldn't. not much different from other dictators we negotiate and maintain close ties to.
----------------------------------------

why did you sneer at another commentator for saying Saddam was untrustworthy?

--because i find it a terribly inconsistent position that bears little relation to on the ground realities. and i've explained why i hold that position.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 03:38 PM

Bravo asked me: You seem to be asserting that Saddam was not sufficiently more dangerous than other extant threats so as to justify the use of force.

--yes, i am making that argument, you are correct.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 03:39 PM

This is not the end of the world. I imagine the shell to be from undeclared Iraqi stockpiles.

--and it's a miracle that all the scientists that we've threatened and then attempted to bribe with fortunes and US passports, done under the guidance of a most motivated prowar inspector, Dr. Kay, has revealed none of these. a true miracle, enough to make one believe in angels and devils.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 03:41 PM

"they destroyed 812 tons of sarin-type agents, yet produced 795 tons"

Why's this important? Maybe they bought (or traded some oil-for-bribes oil for) some. But why is this viewed as much of a descrepancy?

Posted by: Marc at May 19, 2004 03:41 PM

Do you even remember where you thought you were going with it when you linked it? Is the original point still worth defending, or have you ceeded the argument?

--yes, i do remember. no relevant experts agree with you and the remarks of dr. kay and mr. powell should make you wary of the continued excitement you have about so-called 'wmds' in iraq. it's kind of like watching someone get excited about new 'evidence' that the gulf of tonkin incident occurred or that incubator babies were really killed by iraqi soldiers in kuwait. ya'd think at some point the salespitch would end. believe me, if the bush administration thought, for even one minute, that it still had a case to make about 'wmds' in Iraq, Powell never would have said what he said to Russert and Bush would still be bringing up the "WMD" matter and exploiting it for all it was worth.
you still hear people defend the US war against Vietnam, but you rarely hear them citing the Gulf of Tonkin incident as rationale, or 'incubator baby atrocities' to defend Gulf War 1.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 03:45 PM

speaking of unanswered questions, michael, how about addressing your misrepresentation of Savoy's article as being against third party interventions?

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 03:47 PM

I need a break and Cancun isn't for everybody. Besides, I've never visited a country run by a lunatic before.

--i went to indonesia when suharto ran the country. the most beautiful scenery i've ever seen outside the US.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 03:50 PM

actually to be honest, i think michael, you're right the first time i didn't answer your question clearly enough. i hope this recent answer at least does a little better at answering it, in part at least.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 03:55 PM

Calibar: if you think the libyans are going to bug your room, you are suffering from delusions of self grandeur\

They aren't going to bug MY room. They bug the rooms of foreigners all the time and have for years. Plainclothes police officers may also keep an eye on me. Not because they care about me personally, but because that's just what Libya does. You think I would visit a country like that and not look into this? I'm not a spy, but what do you think I'm going to do when I'm there? Just look at Roman ruins and enjoy the "cuisine?" I'm a writer and Libya is a police state. Read the State Department's consular sheet.

Thanks for finally answering my question, though. You trust Saddam enough to negotiate with him. Okay. Most of us don't, and we have plenty of good reasons not to.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 19, 2004 03:59 PM

...or 'incubator baby atrocities' to defend Gulf War 1

Don't forget the real stories like those from Eason Jordan of CNN fame.

The money quote being:

"A 31-year-old Kuwaiti woman, Asrar Qabandi, was captured by Iraqi secret police occupying her country in 1990 for "crimes" including speaking with CNN on the phone.

"They beat her daily for two months, forcing her father to watch. In January 1991, on the eve of the American-led offensive, they smashed her skull, ripped out her brains and put them in a jar, and tore her body apart limb by limb. A plastic bag containing her body parts was left on the doorstep of her family's home."

Or this one about Sarin, tons of it found near Iraq in Jordan.

Posted by: Marc at May 19, 2004 04:06 PM

Marc,

"they destroyed 812 tons of sarin-type agents, yet produced 795 tons"

Why's this important? Maybe they bought (or traded some oil-for-bribes oil for) some. But why is this viewed as much of a descrepancy?

This goes back to a quote that Calibar cited supporting arguments against the war. In the original quote, it notes something to the effect that Iraq declared X many tons of Sarin, and destroyed Y many. I disputed the validity of his source (and still am not sure where he's going with it) but he has failed to respond.

As of April 2003, Iraq, as may be demonstrated in the case of this binary munition, was untruthful in its weapons declaration to the UN in that it declared no Sarin on-hand, absolutely no binary munitions capability, and no (current or past) loading of artillery shells with Sarin.

The further point, is that if the article is correct, than the original declarations to the UN were prima facie inaccurate.

This goes back to the further discussion of the utility of UNSCOM and UNMOVIC inspections.

As far as general points go, nerve agents aren't something that are sold. Much like nuclear weapons, there is a trade in ingredients and manufacturing capabilities, but that stuff is seldom put on the market. Additionally, 17 tons of nerve agent is a lot, considering that a dose of 35 micrograms per kilogram of body weight is considered lethal in humans.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 04:08 PM

Calibar,

This is not the end of the world. I imagine the shell to be from undeclared Iraqi stockpiles.

--and it's a miracle that all the scientists that we've threatened and then attempted to bribe with fortunes and US passports, done under the guidance of a most motivated prowar inspector, Dr. Kay, has revealed none of these. a true miracle, enough to make one believe in angels and devils.

And later...

yes, i do remember. no relevant experts agree with you and the remarks of dr. kay and mr. powell should make you wary of the continued excitement you have about so-called 'wmds' in iraq.

I take it you have not read the Kay Report. At any rate, I must confess honest confusion at the fact that you've stated, on the one hand, that my remarks are not consonant with the feelings of Dr. Kay, yet in this same comments thread, you note:

ya know you're reaching when ya hear quotes like this from a person who would love to be able to find out 'he was right' , but still says:
"It was probably just scavenged from one of the 125-plus ammunition storage points that still remain," David Kay said.

It is this very point that I am making and I've stated before - I think that this shell may be from Iraqi stockpiles. Full stop.

On a more general note, I think you may be reading a tone of excitement into my posts that simply isn't there. When I tell you that I am not that wound up about this, its true. I am not running around yammering to people that this validates the was, et cetera, et cetera.

For that matter, I was never of the opinion that large stockpiles of WMD remained in Iraq at the outset of hostilities. I was, and remained convinced, though that Iraq was in substantial and material breach of its obligation to disarm.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 04:19 PM

Calibar,

Bravo asked me: You seem to be asserting that Saddam was not sufficiently more dangerous than other extant threats so as to justify the use of force.

--yes, i am making that argument, you are correct.

Thank you for clarifying that. All in all, you seem to be sufficiently comfortable with your worldview and arguments that those who don't know you or haven't conversed with you before are subjected to a seeming cloud of questions and allusions that your original argument becomes a bit obscured. It's understandable, because a lot of folks do it, and I just wanted a better feel for where you were coming from.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 19, 2004 04:21 PM

Some interesting comments. Here's a rather intriguing perspective concerning the binary sarin shell itself, from a blogger who is apparently a former ordinance disposal officer.

I originally discounted much importance associated with this shell per se, though reports like this make it rather more intriguing. Further, he effectively fisks some reportage on this (e.g., from the L.A. Times) that has attempted to marginalize its significance. And the 20 tons recently found in Jordan, in the possession of al Queda, has yet to be reported on as well.

So, is there an attempted media cover-up (attempt at marginalization) going on in addition to the sarin itself?

Posted by: Michael B at May 19, 2004 04:38 PM

Bravo Romeo Delta, I just want to say that you have singlehandedly made this one of the most fascinating and informative comment threads I have read on any blog in a long while. MJT: Archive this sucker for a rainy day, and in the meantime you ought to update your post with a reference to this comment thread.

calibar, you make a serviceable foil at the very least.

Michael, for some reason I feel uneasy about you travelling to Libya. But I trust it will work out fine in the end.

Posted by: Jeff B. at May 19, 2004 04:42 PM

Jeff: Michael, for some reason I feel uneasy about you travelling to Libya.

I appreciate the concern, but there isn't much to worry about. Crime is lower in Tripoli than it is in Portland, and I'm more likely to get hit by a terrorist in New York than on this trip. It isn't a dangerous place to visit as a tourist. The only real danger is the government itself, but I am not an idiot. If they find out I'm a writer they will deny me a visa. Otherwise they will let me in and not care any more about me than they will any other "tourist" as long as I don't takes notes in tea houses.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 19, 2004 05:03 PM
So just because the idiot terrorist didnt know how to properly use the munition, doesnt change the fact that it is a chemical weapon.

Yes, of course it was. I discussed precisely that it was a binary chemical weapons shell.

What is the purpose of this statement?

The purpose was to make the point I made. That's typically the purpose of what I write. Since the point seems unclear to you, I will clarify that it was to correct a factual misstatement.

Are you somehow claiming that the fact this was a binary shell somehow makes this any less a WMD?

No. I would suggest using less imagination in attempting to deduce Hidden Purposes.

I realize this is difficult for some to understand, but some people can actually discuss something without having a Hidden (or overt) Partisan Point.

In this case, I have no interest whatever in WMDs in a partisan context. Believe me or not. I have some partisan opinions, to be sure, but they're entirely issue-specific, and WMDs isn't one of them.

Although I'm pretty pessimistic, and disappointed, now, I've been a supporter of the war, sirs.

And as we now see above with Gary's dismissal of binary ordnance... What would the point be?
See above. And, of course, I "dismissed" nothing, save in your imagination.
But the idea that the shell didn't really contain a WMD because the bozos who used it didn't shake it up is simply hilarious.

I said no such thing.

Gary, you were asking for a cite about why the shell was produced post Iran/Iraq war....

Yes, I subsequently saw that. Thanks for making the first rational, substantive, response to what I wrote. It will be interesting to see what develops on this story.

It's odd that people don't realize that they are not actually lending support to their position, whatever it may be, when they respond subliterately, with incorrect readings, and ad hominems.

On that topic, speaking to Michael, I don't expect you to particularly weigh my opinion on this heavily, but I'll note that the comments sections of blogs that have postings on what is and isn't acceptable, meaning ruling out personal attacks and abuse, at pain of deletion or banning, are pretty much the only readable ones in the blogosphere once a blog becomes sufficiently popular, as you have so become.

In my opinion, of course, on the basis that I'm interested in substantive, courteous, exchange; some people desire chest-beating superiority demonstrations, and the like, instead.

I'd offer Tacitus and Obsidian Wings as example, for instance.

Again, I offer this purely as a data point, but I find myself uninterested in posting to blogs that don't have such policies.

Do you have any thoughts on such policies?

Posted by: Gary Farber at May 19, 2004 05:25 PM

Secondly, how on earth do you decide that the Red Zone is "fake"? It's an imaginary zone to begin with. Calling an imaginary, abstract thing "fake" is just bizzare. It's like calling a Cartesian-coordinate system fake. Abjectly goofy.

--fake as in no reference to reality, made up to scare americans into believing that chemical warfare was around the corner.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 05:32 PM

It is this very point that I am making and I've stated before - I think that this shell may be from Iraqi stockpiles. Full stop.

--and yet Kay couldn't find one stockpile, despite the best attempts to interrogate, threaten, bribe, offer US passports and the like to any scientists who came forward with information on the location of these 'stockpiles'. like i said, it's enough to make one believe in angels and devils.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 05:34 PM

They aren't going to bug MY room. They bug the rooms of foreigners all the time and have for years. Plainclothes police officers may also keep an eye on me. Not because they care about me personally, but because that's just what Libya does.

--ah yes, the famous state dept. counsular sheets. i was in china in sept. 1989 at a time when the state dept. was still warning foreigners to not to go because of Tiananmen. utter nonsense. i ignored the warnings and was treated like a king by ordinary chinese because i was american. i bet the same exact thing will happen to you in Libya, it'll be quite upsetting.
if you have plans to go and do interviews with dissidents in libya, visit prisons, activists, ok, maybe you'll have reason to be concerned. otherwise, i wouldn't count on police visits or bugging, or the like. those things take up a lot of time and resources, not something a country looking for foreign investment is inclined to desire to waste.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 05:38 PM

And the 20 tons recently found in Jordan, in the possession of al Queda, has yet to be reported on as well.

--wow, now there is a conspiracy theory for ya. FOX News isn't pushing this bigtime? or the Bush administration? how odd. maybe they've gone over to the evildoers' side?

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 05:39 PM

calibar, you make a serviceable foil at the very least.

--i take it you were one of those who got excited about the last great 'find' in Iraq, and the one before that and the one before that and the one before that ad infinitum.
I know where you're coming from my friend, I'm a redsox fan, i feel your pain.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 05:41 PM

For that matter, I was never of the opinion that large stockpiles of WMD remained in Iraq at the outset of hostilities.

--this is rational and confirmed by the record.

-------------------------
I was, and remained convinced, though that Iraq was in substantial and material breach of its obligation to disarm.

---this is not confirmed by the record, not even close. in fact they probably disarmed in proportion to the amount that chalabi et al lied through their teeth about the amounts of so-called "WMDs" existed in Iraq.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 05:44 PM

Michael, for some reason I feel uneasy about you travelling to Libya. But I trust it will work out fine in the end.

--he'll be just fine. he'll go to libya, chat with locals, be treated like royalty as an american tourist and will come back to the United States refreshed from a vacation.
good luck with the unease.

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 05:48 PM

The only real danger is the government itself, but I am not an idiot. If they find out I'm a writer they will deny me a visa.

--heck, that's nothing unusual. we've put british and australian journalists in the brig for declaring their journalist status, in some cases for almost a full day and then deported them. if they'd come in as tourists and not been honest about their journalist credentials, it woulda been 'welcome to america my foreign friend!".

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 05:50 PM

Calibar: if they'd come in as tourists and not been honest about their journalist credentials, it woulda been 'welcome to america my foreign friend!".

Yeah, and that's pretty stupid, obviously. It's on a whole different level in Libya, though. For one thing, I'm only allowed to even apply for a visa if I first submit a "letter of invitation" to visit from someone who lives in the country. You just can't visit Libya without being invited by a Libyan national. So companies have opened up to fill precisely this function. And even they are a pain in the ass to deal with. They're incredibly non-responsive as if they really aren't interested in getting my money.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 19, 2004 06:11 PM

Calibar:

It's a WMD. As in, it has the potential to kill lots and lots of people. It's an "entry level" WMD, to be sure. They get a lot lot nastier. Now we know two critical things:

1. From David Kay's research we know that Saddam had ongoing WMD programs revealing an intent that would only have resulted in a growing threat.

2. And we now know that he actually had developed and manufactured some binary WMD.

Given that we, essentially, found this by accident, I think you have to conclude that the decision to invade was probably prudent, and may have saved us some untold grief.

But even without that, we know that the invasion has allowed us do eliminate a WMD threat in Libya. Bottom line, it was either a responsible decision, or a very lucky one.

Posted by: Scott at May 19, 2004 07:07 PM
It is this very point that I am making and I've stated before - I think that this shell may be from Iraqi stockpiles. Full stop. --and yet Kay couldn't find one stockpile, despite the best attempts to interrogate, threaten, bribe, offer US passports and the like to any scientists who came forward with information on the location of these 'stockpiles'. like i said, it's enough to make one believe in angels and devils.

Now this is just delicious, isn't it? It has been suggested that since the United Nations has refused to provide an assurance of amnesty to any Iraqi scientist who may have participated in a WMD that such a scientist might be reluctant to incriminate himself. But if this shell came from a stockpile, as it almost certainly did, then either a few people have amnesia, or they aren't telling the truth. And if they aren't telling the truth about this, then...

I figured prior to the war that Saddam had not yet developed a true strategic WMD capability, because if he had he'd have used it to deter an attack. I never dreamt that he hadn't developed tactical WMD, or that he wasn't actively seeking a strategic capability. And knowing what we know now, little as it is, I see no reason to revise my original estimation.

It was very fortunate that we didn't wait any longer.

Posted by: Scott at May 19, 2004 07:38 PM

And the 20 tons recently found in Jordan, in the possession of al Queda, has yet to be reported on as well.

"--wow, now there is a conspiracy theory for ya ..." calibar

Well, instead of simply replying in smirk-for-smirk fashion, in fact I'm merely asking for some research and reporting on an apparently bona fide 20 ton supply, in al Queda's hands, in Jordan. So if the results of the research and reportage ends up with the finding that the provenance is not from Saddam Hussein era Iraq, that's fine. Maybe it's a local blend, maybe from al Queda itself somewhere, maybe from Syria, perhaps imported from outside the region. The question is, as it pretty much has been confirmed after the Jordanian intelligence service uncovered it, along with the plot, why would the Western press virtually ignore it?

However, since you like "wow" in lieu of an actual response that addresses the problem stated, I'll remind you of this, from another post: Eason Jordan, of CNN renown. Somehow, you forgot to reply. Sometimes, such forgetfulness, appears to be a little too studied and a little too convenient.

Posted by: Michael B at May 19, 2004 08:25 PM

1. From David Kay's research we know that Saddam had ongoing WMD programs revealing an intent that would only have resulted in a growing threat.

--ah yes, it was such a big threat that he couldn't find it! outstanding

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 08:33 PM

Now this is just delicious, isn't it? It has been suggested that since the United Nations has refused to provide an assurance of amnesty to any Iraqi scientist who may have participated in a WMD that such a scientist might be reluctant to incriminate himself.

--uhm hate to break it to ya, the US runs Iraq, not the UN

Posted by: calibar at May 19, 2004 08:35 PM

Well, Michael, David Kay -- yes, that David Kay -- was quoted as saying that the discovery of exactly one very elderly shell left over from Saddam's unquestionable pre-Gulf war chemical arsenal is "no big deal":

http://www.abcnews.go.com/wire/World/ap20040517_1116.html :

"U.S. officials believe, based on evidence, that the shell was an experimental munition produced before the 1991 Gulf War, called a 'binary type'...

"Kay... said it appears that the shell was one of tens of thousands produced for the Iran-Iraq war, which Saddam was supposed to destroy or turn over to the United Nations. In many cases, he said, Iraq did comply.

" 'It is hard to know if this is one that just was overlooked and there were always some that were overlooked -- we knew that -- or if this was one that came from a hidden stockpile,' Kay said. 'I rather doubt that, because it appears the insurgents didn't even know they had a chemical round.' [The shell, by the way, wasn't marked as containing chemical agents.]

"While Saturday's explosion does demonstrate that Saddam hadn't complied fully with U.N. resolutions, Kay also said, 'It doesn't strike me as a big deal.' "

But then, what does he know compared with an intellectual titan like Lileks (who, incidentally, should definitely stick to reviewing cookbooks and Star Trek episodes)?

Posted by: Bruce Moomaw at May 19, 2004 09:40 PM

Well, Michael, David Kay -- yes, that David Kay -- was quoted as saying that the discovery of exactly one very elderly shell left over from Saddam's unquestionable pre-Gulf war chemical arsenal is "no big deal":

--but you forget, he's on the other side now, he's a bonafide evildoer.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 04:59 AM

Wow BDR, the tenacity to argue meaningfully with such a character. You answered his smiky, illogical ad hom's with cool purposeful points.

Gary, the most ad hom generation was from calibar so you should direct your disdain their.

Michael, you need to put up your anti DU garlic.

Posted by: capt joe at May 20, 2004 05:19 AM

You answered his smiky, illogical ad hom's with cool purposeful points.

--it's funny to listen to how the war lobby just makes stuff up when they have no arguments, thus the 'ad hominem' accusation with no evidence.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 06:46 AM

Officials have repeated to Fox News that throughout the late 1980s and early in the 1990s, Iraq manufactured 155-mm artillery and mortar shells containing chemicals that, when mixed, create sarin, as well as similar shells containing mustard gas and ricin, all with standard capacities of two to five liters.

BDR, Joe, eat your hearts out!

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 07:54 AM

It is this very point that I am making and I've stated before - I think that this shell may be from Iraqi stockpiles. Full stop.

--and yet Kay couldn't find one stockpile, despite the best attempts to interrogate, threaten, bribe, offer US passports and the like to any scientists who came forward with information on the location of these 'stockpiles'. like i said, it's enough to make one believe in angels and devils.

And yet you directly quote Kay as stating that he believes that it comes from Iraqi stockpiles.

Secondly, I am a bit confused on why it is that you think that the mysterious scientists would have information about storage facilites for weaponized agents. That's not their purview. Their area of expertise is in development, not storage.

Third, I see you still haven't read the Kay Report, because you seem bound and determined to draw conclusions from it that simply aren't merited in the document itself. Given that, I've excerpted some text, given below:

Let me turn now to chemical weapons (CW). In searching for retained stocks of chemical munitions, ISG has had to contend with the almost unbelievable scale of Iraq's conventional weapons armory, which dwarfs by orders of magnitude the physical size of any conceivable stock of chemical weapons. For example, there are approximately 130 known Iraqi Ammunition Storage Points (ASP), many of which exceed 50 square miles in size and hold an estimated 600,000 tons of artillery shells, rockets, aviation bombs and other ordinance. Of these 130 ASPs, approximately 120 still remain unexamined. As Iraqi practice was not to mark much of their chemical ordinance and to store it at the same ASPs that held conventional rounds, the size of the required search effort is enormous. While searching for retained weapons, ISG teams have developed multiple sources that indicate that Iraq explored the possibility of CW production in recent years, possibly as late as 2003. When Saddam had asked a senior military official in either 2001 or 2002 how long it would take to produce new chemical agent and weapons, he told ISG that after he consulted with CW experts in OMI he responded it would take six months for mustard. Another senior Iraqi chemical weapons expert in responding to a request in mid-2002 from Uday Husayn for CW for the Fedayeen Saddam estimated that it would take two months to produce mustard and two years for Sarin.

These findings support the statement that Iraq had failed to comply with its obligations.
----------------------
From David Kay's research we know that Saddam had ongoing WMD programs revealing an intent that would only have resulted in a growing threat.

--ah yes, it was such a big threat that he couldn't find it! outstanding

This comment is also inaccurate. As you no doubt recall, the Kay Report is an interim report to congress on findings thus far. And he had found Iraq to be in material violation of the conditions imposed by the UN. Rather than reading the recycled reports, I beg you to read, at a minimum, the UNMOVIC Clusters Document (to ascertain UN findings prior to the war), the pertinent UN resolutions (to see what their obligations were), and the Kay Report (to see what has been found to date).
----------------------------
Now this is just delicious, isn't it? It has been suggested that since the United Nations has refused to provide an assurance of amnesty to any Iraqi scientist who may have participated in a WMD that such a scientist might be reluctant to incriminate himself.

--uhm hate to break it to ya, the US runs Iraq, not the UN

At the risk of reading into another commenter's post, I think he might be referring to the refusal of the UN to act in this fashion during the pre-war period in which the UN was in charge of the inspection process.
-------------------------
Well, Michael, David Kay -- yes, that David Kay -- was quoted as saying that the discovery of exactly one very elderly shell left over from Saddam's unquestionable pre-Gulf war chemical arsenal is "no big deal":

--but you forget, he's on the other side now, he's a bonafide evildoer.

Do you have an actual point with this comment?
-----------------
Officials have repeated to Fox News that throughout the late 1980s and early in the 1990s, Iraq manufactured 155-mm artillery and mortar shells containing chemicals that, when mixed, create sarin, as well as similar shells containing mustard gas and ricin, all with standard capacities of two to five liters.

Calibar, I am absolutely unclear why on earth that I am supposed to be 'eating my heart out' over this. Hell, if you'd asked me I would have told you the same and given you a better set of references than Fox News.

The point in fact that we return to yet again, is the Iraqi declaration to the UN, in which no declarations were made about either binary munitions or artillery shells filled with Sarin. The officials your article cites are the same guys who were making allegations about chemical weapons prior to the war - folks that you've implied have been lying all along. Now if their statement is supposed to lend some support to your argument I would appreciate it if you could spell it out a bit more clearly, and explain how it is that citing people you claim to have manufactured the entire chemical weapons threat.
---------------------
I was, and remained convinced, though that Iraq was in substantial and material breach of its obligation to disarm.

---this is not confirmed by the record, not even close. in fact they probably disarmed in proportion to the amount that chalabi et al lied through their teeth about the amounts of so-called "WMDs" existed in Iraq.

One thing to keep in mind is that their obligation to disarm goes beyond simply turning over stockpiles, but extends to all aspects of thier WMD programs, including production facilities. Part of UN Resolution 1441 is quoted below:

Deploring the fact that Iraq has not provided an accurate, full, final, and complete disclosure, as required by resolution 687 (1991), of all aspects of its programmes to develop weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles with a range greater than one hundred and fifty kilometres, and of all holdings of such weapons, their components and production facilities and locations, as well as all other nuclear programmes, including any which it claims are for purposes not related to nuclear-weapons-usable material,

This, in concert with the initial findings of the Kay Report demonstrates failure to comply with 1441.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 20, 2004 10:35 AM

Gary,

I hope I'm not the subject of too much of your ire. In reading your most recent post, you hit on a couple key points. The most significant is the questions about date of manufacture.

Among other things, Iraq wasn't suspected of even having binary munitions capability until 1995. Yet, as you indicate, there is evidence the shell is much older.

This touches on a couple of major points,

1) Iraq never declared binary munitions capability, hence the never managed to come clean.

1a) Iraq also never declared having sarin-filled artillery shells

2) Moreover, either they were inaccurate or deceptive in their accounting of the fate of their chemical munitions

These points, combined with the fact that the shell was unot marked differently than a regular HE shell, leads to a possibly tricky situation. Specifically, it may mean that there are an undeteremined number of unmarked chemical munitions in either dedicated CW stockpiles, or even worse, an indeterminate number of shells intermixed -- without rhyme or reason -- among the millions of conventional shells.

In either case, it is possible that there are CW weapons that are both uncontrolled and unaccounted for. This could be problematic.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 20, 2004 10:43 AM

Bruce,

U.S. officials believe, based on evidence, that the shell was an experimental munition produced before the 1991 Gulf War, called a 'binary type'...

"Kay... said it appears that the shell was one of tens of thousands produced for the Iran-Iraq war, which Saddam was supposed to destroy or turn over to the United Nations. In many cases, he said, Iraq did comply.

I am a bit confused by these two statements, as experimental weapons are not often produced in the quantities of tens of thousands. Not that this takes away from your comment, it's just that the reportage is a bit murky here.

" 'It is hard to know if this is one that just was overlooked and there were always some that were overlooked -- we knew that -- or if this was one that came from a hidden stockpile,' Kay said. 'I rather doubt that, because it appears the insurgents didn't even know they had a chemical round.' [The shell, by the way, wasn't marked as containing chemical agents.]

As I mentioned in my post to Gary, the fact that it was unmarked means that there is a distinct possiblity that a whole raft of shells were overlooked. I don't think that this necessarily came from some big secret CW stockpile inside Iraq. But it's existence raises some significant questions.

"While Saturday's explosion does demonstrate that Saddam hadn't complied fully with U.N. resolutions, Kay also said, 'It doesn't strike me as a big deal.' "

I would love to see the context for that statement. I would guess that he said something to the effect that it doesn't represent (by itself) a substantially larger violation than those that have been documented.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 20, 2004 11:14 AM

And yet you directly quote Kay as stating that he believes that it comes from Iraqi stockpiles.

--it's funny how that is phrased, 'stockpiles'. well, yeah there are stockpiles of weapons in Iraq, but stockpiles of wmds? well, like i said, that they couldn't find them by now, it's enough to make ya believe in angels and devils.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 11:46 AM

The question is, as it pretty much has been confirmed after the Jordanian intelligence service uncovered it, along with the plot, why would the Western press virtually ignore it?

--because they've been burnt so many times before with all the other "finds" that the US announced in Iraq. it was a non-ending comedy for a while the way cnn/fox would have a near orgasm everytime the 'coalition' announced some "WMD" find. out would come the charts of how many people could die and how fast and how grisly the deaths would be etc. when the 'find' was announced. then a few days later, oh, it's a dud, or oh, it's not what we thought, ...and then onto the next great "find" caper...until finally it seems the "liberal" media finally got tired of the charade. they maybe decided it was getting like looking for incubator babies in kuwait that were killed by iraqis?

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 11:50 AM

Calibar,

Does the fact that TONS of precursor chemicals were found (which could well be 1/2 of a binary agent) in 55 gallon drums in hidden bunkers not bother you in any way?

Posted by: Matthew Cromer at May 20, 2004 12:30 PM

Calibar, another question:

What is your opinion of the foiled CW terrorist attack in Jordan?

Posted by: Matthew Cromer at May 20, 2004 01:01 PM

And yet you directly quote Kay as stating that he believes that it comes from Iraqi stockpiles.

--it's funny how that is phrased, 'stockpiles'. well, yeah there are stockpiles of weapons in Iraq, but stockpiles of wmds? well, like i said, that they couldn't find them by now, it's enough to make ya believe in angels and devils.

So your argument here is semantic? FOr you stockpile implies quantity?

Cribbing from Meriam-Webster, I get this definition:

: a storage pile: as a : a reserve supply of something essential accumulated within a country for use during a shortage b : a gradually accumulated reserve of something

Having no way of knowing the context in which the original terminology of stockpiles was presented to you, I can't comment further. But, if I rephrase it that the sarin-filled shell came from munitions supplies collected under the former Iraqi regime, is does it become a more reasonable proposition to you?

Semantics aside, I still maintain that the former Iraqi government failed to comply with the demands made on it, as was shown in Kay's interim report.

When it ultimately gets down to cases, if you recall Wolfowitz's interview in Vanity Fair, you have the following explanation of the rationale behind the war:

there have always been three fundamental concerns. One is weapons of mass destruction, the second is support for terrorism, the third is the criminal treatment of the Iraqi people. Actually I guess you could say there's a fourth overriding one which is the connection between the first two

This tracks pretty closely with the text of the pertinent State of the Union Address here. While he does go on at length about the WMD, you will also note that he specifically touches on the other two points that Wolfowitz mentions in his interview.

So, in the long run, a single shell does not validate the decision to go to war anymore than the statement "Bush Lied, People Died" has anything remotely to do with reality.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 20, 2004 05:10 PM

Calibar, if you'll forgive me, I missed a second point I wanted to make in the above post:

And yet you directly quote Kay as stating that he believes that it comes from Iraqi stockpiles.

--it's funny how that is phrased, 'stockpiles'. well, yeah there are stockpiles of weapons in Iraq, but stockpiles of wmds? well, like i said, that they couldn't find them by now, it's enough to make ya believe in angels and devils.

The second question being, where on earth do you read anyone talking about "stockpiles of wmds"?

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 20, 2004 05:12 PM

Does the fact that TONS of precursor chemicals were found (which could well be 1/2 of a binary agent) in 55 gallon drums in hidden bunkers not bother you in any way?

--It's not anything the Bush administration is making a big deal about, why should I make a big deal about it? It sounds like the kind of thing that would excite the NY Post perhaps, but no, I'm not that concerned about it. I tend to be more concerned about what our good friends like Pakistan are doing with their secret intelligence. I used to be concerned about Israel's selling nuclear intelligence/parts to South Africa, but we got lucky there.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 05:28 PM

Semantics aside, I still maintain that the former Iraqi government failed to comply with the demands made on it, as was shown in Kay's interim report.

--actually it really didn't fail that greatly 1) and 2) our gov't never wanted full compliance anyhow, they were more interested in war. thus the refusal to accept letting the US send spy flights over Iraqi territory with the drones on the eve of the official invasion. and of course all the lying and exaggarating of the Iraqi 'threat' on the eve of the invasion.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 05:30 PM

While he does go on at length about the WMD, you will also note that he specifically touches on the other two points that Wolfowitz mentions in his interview.

--in passing at most. his main interest was justifying an illegal and unprovoked invasion, which could only be done by claiming that Iraq had something to do with 911 and by exaggarating greatly the extent to which Iraq was a threat to the US and Europe.
Who knows, tomorrow we'll probably be debating whether or not Chalabi is a threat to the United States, has ties to Syria or North Korea, etc. The 'threats' are hard to keep up with.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 05:34 PM

The second question being, where on earth do you read anyone talking about "stockpiles of wmds"?

--well, i can't imagine any other stockpiles that the US was putatively worried about.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 06:11 PM

Semantics aside, I still maintain that the former Iraqi government failed to comply with the demands made on it, as was shown in Kay's interim report.

--actually it really didn't fail that greatly 1) and 2) our gov't never wanted full compliance anyhow, they were more interested in war. thus the refusal to accept letting the US send spy flights over Iraqi territory with the drones on the eve of the official invasion. and of course all the lying and exaggarating of the Iraqi 'threat' on the eve of the invasion.

First of all, what does "fail that greatly" mean? Is that like not being that pregnant or only being sort of a cannibal? What happens when you only "really didn't fail that greatly" to make it to the bathroom before an episode of explosive intestinal discomfort? Full disarmament is possble, as Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Taiwan, and South Africa have all succesfully disarmed and dismantled their military nuclear weapons program. This is driven in large part by an utter lack of Iraqi intent to disarm completely.

The other point that you mention is that you have some mystical ability to see into the minds of the administration and make definitive and unsupported statements about the administration's intent. Remember, if you want to make a logical argument, going about it by begging the question is fallacious and not the most effective way to get your point across.

Rather, it would seem that the folks who were asserting that there were no WMD would be the folks who may wish to revise their original statements.

------------------------------------------

Does the fact that TONS of precursor chemicals were found (which could well be 1/2 of a binary agent) in 55 gallon drums in hidden bunkers not bother you in any way?

--It's not anything the Bush administration is making a big deal about, why should I make a big deal about it? It sounds like the kind of thing that would excite the NY Post perhaps, but no, I'm not that concerned about it. I tend to be more concerned about what our good friends like Pakistan are doing with their secret intelligence. I used to be concerned about Israel's selling nuclear intelligence/parts to South Africa, but we got lucky there.

Well, I'm glad that you're not so deeply concerned about the South African program, considering they shucked it over a decade ago. But, as with the Pakistani government, we're still in a post about Iraq, WMD, and a 155 mm shell with Sarin.

As far as it not bothering you that large amounts of precursors have been found, I have to admit to being a bit amused that you cite the Bush administration as a determining factor in whether or not you should be excited. Since you seem to have a penchant for discrediting everything they say out of hand, I wouldn't have guessed that you would use them as a touchstone for your views.

-----------------------------------

While he does go on at length about the WMD, you will also note that he specifically touches on the other two points that Wolfowitz mentions in his interview.

--in passing at most. his main interest was justifying an illegal and unprovoked invasion, which could only be done by claiming that Iraq had something to do with 911 and by exaggarating greatly the extent to which Iraq was a threat to the US and Europe.
Who knows, tomorrow we'll probably be debating whether or not Chalabi is a threat to the United States, has ties to Syria or North Korea, etc. The 'threats' are hard to keep up with.

Calibar, we're not talking about verbiage, we're talking about two sourced documents - Wolfowitz's interview. In that interview, if you scroll down to that section of the interview, he explains rather clearly the rationale behind the decision making. Specifically, he notes that WMD had the broadest consensus support among memebers of the government. So if that's what has strongest consensus support, then that's probably what they'd want to sell, right?

But essntially, this is still all a side issue. The point of my selection of these two quotes is that government officials have been consistent both before and after the war in their rationales, as well as being consistent in both public diplomacy as well as in press interviews.

Moreover, you still have failed, in pretty epic fashion, to address the demonstrable fact that the sarin shell is one more bit of concrete, tangible evidence that Iraq failed to meet its obligations to disarm. What bearing this has on the larger issue of the war itself is a post for another day.

-----------------------------------

The second question being, where on earth do you read anyone talking about "stockpiles of wmds"?

--well, i can't imagine any other stockpiles that the US was putatively worried about.

I apologize for being less than crystal clear - in the original post from which this stems, I mention my belief that the Sarin shell came from Iraqi stockpiles. At that point, you start on the business of stating that I meant or implied WMD stockpiles. I did not mention this. Far as I can tell, no one else in this comment thread has made the assertion (save yourself). So I was wondering if you were just putting words in my mouth, or if there was a case where someone in this discussion made the assertion that the shell means that there are necessarily vast amounts of chemical weapons in Iraq.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 20, 2004 06:58 PM

Specifically, he notes that WMD had the broadest consensus support among memebers of the government. So if that's what has strongest consensus support, then that's probably what they'd want to sell, right?

--I couldn't put it any better. salespitch.
--------------------------------
But essntially, this is still all a side issue. The point of my selection of these two quotes is that government officials have been consistent both before and after the war in their rationales, as well as being consistent in both public diplomacy as well as in press interviews.

--that's not really true. they put way way way more emphasis on the so-called "WMD" 'threat' since there was no other way they could get the world in a frenzy to invade. human rights obviously would go nowhere, the worst were over a decade ago under US aid/financing/etc. and we supported then and now dictators who were as vicious or more vicious than Saddam. So it was pointless to go with that sales pitch, though Blair desparately tried, it went nowhere. Bush being unable to eloquently argue could never do it. That left the only other option which was to exaggarate beyond reason and to distort the history of the conflict with Iraq sufficiently to mobilize media and politicians' support for the planned invasion. No great mystery there, they fell back on the Gulf of Tonkin/Incubator Baby approach.
-----------------------------
Moreover, you still have failed, in pretty epic fashion, to address the demonstrable fact that the sarin shell is one more bit of concrete, tangible evidence that Iraq failed to meet its obligations to disarm.

--I guess we disagree. When a guy like David Kay, who was dying for excuses to bomb and invade Iraq, and desparately needed evidence of all his claims before the invasion of 'wmd' 'threats', says that it's probably insignificant, that's enough for me. We'll see if Powell, Rummy, Bush make big hay of it, my guess is it'll fizzle fast like the other big 'finds'.
-------------------------------
I mention my belief that the Sarin shell came from Iraqi stockpiles.

--If your belief is they came from stockpiles in general, that would all the more confirm Kay's take on the matter I'd think. But if you really think that this is a big find, that's fine too. I just don't see that much hay being made of it in the conservative or "liberal" media organs by and large. a few of the mussolini lobby bloggers are making hay of it and that's about it it seems.
so far pretty consistent with all the past 'finds'.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 08:31 PM

Well, I'm glad that you're not so deeply concerned about the South African program, considering they shucked it over a decade ago. But, as with the Pakistani government, we're still in a post about Iraq, WMD, and a 155 mm shell with Sarin.

--now you're being a tad disingenuous? you asked me what i worry about if not saddam. i worry about pakistan, i think they're a terribly irresponsible unelected military government with WMD capability and terribly little accountability. that i am far more concerned about than some shell that was, if the speculation of two pretty big experts is correct and administration sources, accidently used by resistance fighters in Iraq.
-------------------------------

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 08:34 PM

Semantics aside, I still maintain that the former Iraqi government failed to comply with the demands made on it, as was shown in Kay's interim report.

--well, yeah, sure it did. but then again, the US violated countless UN treaties in its interactions with Iraq as well, I don't really see the big deal. It's not really a reason for war and most of the world would agree with me about that.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 08:36 PM

Full disarmament is possble, as Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Taiwan, and South Africa have all succesfully disarmed and dismantled their military nuclear weapons program. This is driven in large part by an utter lack of Iraqi intent to disarm completely.

--ya see, there's really little reason to believe that, no more than the hyped claims that Iraq was in possession of great amounts of arms. thus my conviction that the war had nothing to do with wmds or military threats, nor issues of human rights or democracy, it was purely and simply about regime change because, as thomas friedman so deliciously put it, 'we could do it'. in a nutshell, that is what i believe, i think friedman put it very well.
and i hesitate to use the word 'we', since 'we' really have little say in whether the US goes to war or not in the first place, illusions to the contrary about the power of citizens in a democracy.

Posted by: calibar at May 20, 2004 08:40 PM

"I hope I'm not the subject of too much of your ire."

Not in the least, BDR; your comments have been nothing but substantive, on-point, literate, and informative.

[...]

"In either case, it is possible that there are CW weapons that are both uncontrolled and unaccounted for. This could be problematic."

It certainly seems highly unlikely that this is the only one out there. The range of uncertainties is huge, but that it was the only one is on the low end of the scale. We'll just have to wait and see and hope for the best.

Meanwhile, I'm a tad inclined to worry about the estimated eight extant North Korean nuclear weapons, and their continued production, myself, if we're talking WMDs.

Posted by: Gary Farber at May 20, 2004 10:30 PM

"--well, i can't imagine any other stockpiles that the US was putatively worried about." calibar

Here's some more of that "putative" stuff, can also furnish statements from various international intelligence agencies reflecting the same sentiments:

"Without question, we need to disarm Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal, murderous dictator, leading an oppressive regime ... He presents a particularly grievous threat because he is so consistently prone to miscalculation ... And now he is miscalculating America's response to his continued deceit and his consistent grasp for weapons of mass destruction ... So the threat of Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is real ..." Sen. John F. Kerry (D, MA), Jan. 23. 2003

"In the four years since the inspectors left, intelligence reports show that Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons stock, his missile delivery capability, and his nuclear program. He has also given aid, comfort, and sanctuary to terrorists, including al Qaeda members ... It is clear, however, that if left unchecked, Saddam Hussein will continue to increase his capacity to wage biological and chemical warfare, and will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons." Sen. Hillary Clinton (D,NY), Oct 10, 2002

"We are in possession of what I think to be compelling evidence that Saddam Hussein has, and has had for a number of years, a developing capacity for the production and storage of weapons of mass destruction." Sen. Bob Graham (D, FL), Dec. 8, 2002

Posted by: Michael B at May 20, 2004 10:41 PM

Here's some more of that "putative" stuff, can also furnish statements from various international intelligence agencies reflecting the same sentiments:

--Michael B, you need to pay more careful attention? I've been saying all along that Bush Jr./CLinton/Bush Sr. lied or exaggarated the level of threat to the US from Saddam.

Posted by: calibar at May 21, 2004 06:08 AM

Meanwhile, I'm a tad inclined to worry about the estimated eight extant North Korean nuclear weapons, and their continued production, myself, if we're talking WMDs.

--our good friends in the Pakistani Military [aka the armed wing of the Taliban] are helping to make sure NK has access to nuclear technology if necessary.

Posted by: calibar at May 21, 2004 06:09 AM

Gary, Calibar - in re: North Korea

North Korea is a classic example of the problems of what is called < a href="http://www.counterproliferation.org/" target="_blank">counterproliferation one of which is that once someone attains nuclear capability, it is fiendishly hard to disarm them. This is part of what makes the use of really aggressive measures, such as military force, so attractive prior to the development of nuclear weapons.

Nobody really wants to admit it, but the cat's out of the bag w/r/t North Korean nuclear capability, and there's precious little to be done about it.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 21, 2004 08:57 AM

calibar, I paid attention to this particular issue

The point being you provide no support to the allegation it's a "lie." If all or nearly all of the intelligence agencies throughout the world, including the ones the U.N. was heeding, are providing classified information that executive branch and legislative branch people - again, throughout the world, but certainly domestically - are baseing these types of statements upon (both during the Clinton and the current administration's tenures) then the allegation that's it's all been a "lie" meets with little support.

If only a relatively small group of politicians or only one party had promulgated these types of statements, then the likelihood it was more simply a "lie" would be more viable. Such is not the case.

Posted by: Michael B at May 21, 2004 09:29 AM

Here's some more of that "putative" stuff, can also furnish statements from various international intelligence agencies reflecting the same sentiments:

--Michael B, you need to pay more careful attention? I've been saying all along that Bush Jr./CLinton/Bush Sr. lied or exaggarated the level of threat to the US from Saddam.

Calibar, I applaud the fact that you're not beating on the 'Bush Lied' nonsense without taking into account the fact that the intelligence estimates varied very little from administration to administration.

I still disagree vehemently that the threat was wilfully or knowingly exaggerated. Given the history of intelligence operations in the last sixty years, I am not surprised in the slightest that the intelligence turned out to be wrong. But that is a far cry from a campaign of deception. Perhaps you have more faith in human organziations, but I find it immensely more plausable that there was an honest screwup rather than a campaign of lies and deception, as is generally asserted by the 'Bush Lied' crowd.

------------------------

But essntially, this is still all a side issue. The point of my selection of these two quotes is that government officials have been consistent both before and after the war in their rationales, as well as being consistent in both public diplomacy as well as in press interviews.

--that's not really true. they put way way way more emphasis on the so-called "WMD" 'threat' since there was no other way they could get the world in a frenzy to invade. human rights obviously would go nowhere, the worst were over a decade ago under US aid/financing/etc. and we supported then and now dictators who were as vicious or more vicious than Saddam. So it was pointless to go with that sales pitch, though Blair desparately tried, it went nowhere. Bush being unable to eloquently argue could never do it. That left the only other option which was to exaggarate beyond reason and to distort the history of the conflict with Iraq sufficiently to mobilize media and politicians' support for the planned invasion. No great mystery there, they fell back on the Gulf of Tonkin/Incubator Baby approach.

This is flat out wrong. Humanitarian reasons are sufficient reason to attack a country, as established by the precedents of Liberia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Somalia, and Haiti. Moreover, citing other examples of worse governments is both dicey and disinegnuous. Dicey in that Hussein's final body count well exceeded a million, and repression or otherwise, few current governments (North Korea excepted) can match that. Disingenuous in that the statement represents a breathtaking disregard for the history of the last century and the Cold War. The assertion is doubly incorrect, as I think you vastly overestimate the level of support given to Hussein. By far and away, the biggest arms suppliers to the regime were French, Russian, and Chinese. Third, your statement also seems to elide the entire history of the UN's interaction with Iraq. The administration, in an effort to build international consensus (see also UN Resolution 1441) put the weight of its argument on the thing that had the strongest history of violation of UN resolutions. By contrast, the terrorism and human rights issues recieved only one resolution, verus the multitude dealing with disarmament.

And what the hell is with the scare quotes around WMD? It's a bloody adjective with a nice, precise definition. It either applies or not, but none of this 'scare' 'quote' nonsense.

----------------------

Moreover, you still have failed, in pretty epic fashion, to address the demonstrable fact that the sarin shell is one more bit of concrete, tangible evidence that Iraq failed to meet its obligations to disarm.

--I guess we disagree. When a guy like David Kay, who was dying for excuses to bomb and invade Iraq, and desparately needed evidence of all his claims before the invasion of 'wmd' 'threats', says that it's probably insignificant, that's enough for me. We'll see if Powell, Rummy, Bush make big hay of it, my guess is it'll fizzle fast like the other big 'finds'.

As much as you may want to assume that Dr. Kay had a big war stiffy, and was all hot to provide provocation, I would imagine that a view of him as a competent professional trying his best to do his job without prejudice to other concerns might be a bit more accurate. Similarly, as much as folks want to assume the 'Mussolini Lobby' (as you so gracefully put it) are all up in arms about this, I would counter that it matters insofar as it represents tangible evidence of violation of disarmement agreements and nothing more.

Again, what's with the quotes around WMD?

-------------------------

I mention my belief that the Sarin shell came from Iraqi stockpiles.

--If your belief is they came from stockpiles in general, that would all the more confirm Kay's take on the matter I'd think. But if you really think that this is a big find, that's fine too. I just don't see that much hay being made of it in the conservative or "liberal" media organs by and large. a few of the mussolini lobby bloggers are making hay of it and that's about it it seems.
so far pretty consistent with all the past 'finds'.

Of course it goes with Kay's take on the matter. I stated above that I agree with Kay substantially. Nor at any point in the last few thousand words have I said, indicated, or implied that it is a big deal, by itself. You have an incredible desire to assume that I'm making a big deal out of this. I simply am not. The only reason I spend this much time responding to commentary is that I see a lot of incorrect, counterfactual, inaccurate commentary being made here and in other places, and I opted, for once, to take a stand and correct, as best I can, misperceptions about this issue.

--------------------------

Well, I'm glad that you're not so deeply concerned about the South African program, considering they shucked it over a decade ago. But, as with the Pakistani government, we're still in a post about Iraq, WMD, and a 155 mm shell with Sarin.

--now you're being a tad disingenuous? you asked me what i worry about if not saddam. i worry about pakistan, i think they're a terribly irresponsible unelected military government with WMD capability and terribly little accountability. that i am far more concerned about than some shell that was, if the speculation of two pretty big experts is correct and administration sources, accidently used by resistance fighters in Iraq.

I have duly noted that you have expressed grave concerns about Pakistani proliferation. For the record, I agree with you, at least on basic principles on this one.

You're entirely entitled to worry about Pakistan. In a post about Pakistan. Or if we had changed the subject to Pakistan. I am not going to switch subjects simply because Pakistan exists or is a bigger threat. In much the same fashion that my desire to eat lunch will not all the sudden take over my commentary, despite the fact that I am quite hungry. The notion that I may want to eat, while true, still is unrelated to the finding of the Sarin shell in Iraq. If you'd care to discuss Pakistan, start a blog and post it - that's the whole bloody point of blogging. Or you could find a thread discussing Pakistan and point me on over to it. Or you could wait for Michael to post something about Pakistan. But right now, we're still working on the Iraqi shell issue.

-----------------------------

Semantics aside, I still maintain that the former Iraqi government failed to comply with the demands made on it, as was shown in Kay's interim report.

--well, yeah, sure it did. but then again, the US violated countless UN treaties in its interactions with Iraq as well, I don't really see the big deal. It's not really a reason for war and most of the world would agree with me about that.

Countless? Meaning? More seriously, aside from the fact that establishing equivalency between the US and Iraq is a dodge of the weakest sort, the point to UN Resolution 1441 and the several months of back and forth leading up to the war, was that Iraq's material breaches of its obligations were sufficient that the 'serious consequences' clause of 1441 was triggered. If the UN passed a series of resolutions about Michael Moore eating too many cheeseburgers and threatened 'serious consequences' for non-compliance, then Mike could very well expect an ass-kicking if he were found in material breach, regardless of how ever many UN resolutions were passed affecting other member states.

Iraq was asserted, and later found, to be in material breach of its obligations, and therefore the assertions that led to the use of force under 1441 were borne out by evidence found after the war.

When you get to "It's not really a reason for war and most of the world would agree with me about that." you manage to avoid the fact that there were several stated reasons for war and try to collapse the case to one dealing solely with WMD, which, as I stated above, is inaccurate. Additionally, the statement about most of the rest of the world agreeing with you is a fatuous fallacy - see Argument by Consensus.

Finally, the assertion that most of the world didn't agree that it was reason for war makes the unanimous passage of 1441 rather interesting, don't you think?

------------------------------

Full disarmament is possble, as Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Taiwan, and South Africa have all succesfully disarmed and dismantled their military nuclear weapons program. This is driven in large part by an utter lack of Iraqi intent to disarm completely.

--ya see, there's really little reason to believe that, no more than the hyped claims that Iraq was in possession of great amounts of arms. thus my conviction that the war had nothing to do with wmds or military threats, nor issues of human rights or democracy, it was purely and simply about regime change because, as thomas friedman so deliciously put it, 'we could do it'. in a nutshell, that is what i believe, i think friedman put it very well.
and i hesitate to use the word 'we', since 'we' really have little say in whether the US goes to war or not in the first place, illusions to the contrary about the power of citizens in a democracy.

If you actually go ahead and read the entire Kay Report, rather than going on about it through secondary sources, you will see that there was a marked lack of intent to disarm. This has been born out by finds, such as the buried centrifuge.

Secondly, your ire at the notion that the war was waged because 'we could do it' brings about the obvious question of when in the entire history of the country did we go to war when we could not do it? Before you fire off a response, take a moment and think about it: all war (excepting response to genocide) is optional. We have never faced a conflict that we couldn't have passed up. Full stop.

Finally, your lament about your decision not changing things much is noted. First, this is a republic with elected representatives - not a democracy. As far as governments go (and I've asked foreign experts on America on this) America is one of the most 'Democratic' countries in the world - based on the relative weakness of the Executive and the power of the elected legislature. And finally, part of living in a participatory government, such as this, is that when your side loses the bet, you suck it up and live with it - I may have not agreed with policy X, Y, or Z, but once the play is put in motion, it's too damn late to start bucking it, and it gets to be time that you make sure it is executed as well as possible and get ready to change things next time around. As you well know, one can't really go along with this democracy gig only when it meets one's worldview, and shuck it when the majority disagrees with you. It may suck, but its endemic to this democracy in general.

If it weren't that way, things like incarceration of criminals would be nigh well impossible, since most of the people in jail don't want to be there. They're only there because the vast majority of folks, through their elected proxies, have decided to throw them in the slammer.

-----------------------

Meanwhile, I'm a tad inclined to worry about the estimated eight extant North Korean nuclear weapons, and their continued production, myself, if we're talking WMDs.

--our good friends in the Pakistani Military [aka the armed wing of the Taliban] are helping to make sure NK has access to nuclear technology if necessary.

Yep, sadly that boat seems to have sailed. We've been fortunate with Libya, and to a lesser extent, Iran, but yes, the damage has already been done with North Korea.

But still, this post was about Iraq and Sarin, not North Korea and Plutonium or Pakistan and Uranium.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 21, 2004 09:47 AM

Again, what's with the quotes around WMD?

--because we collapsed all kinds of weapons into "WMD" category to justify our claims. the term lost all meaning the way Clinton and Bush used it.

Posted by: calibar at May 21, 2004 12:12 PM

The point being you provide no support to the allegation it's a "lie."

--one example. when it is crystal clear to the world that the so-called 'chemical weapons trailers' were a fraud and Dick Cheney continues to talk about them as though they were exactly that, i'm not sure what else we can call it.

or when a british political scientist can systematically refute the administrations' case for 'wmds' in iraq before the official invasion began i'm not sure there is really a difference anymore between false allegation and lie!

I'm reminded of the false accusations of child sex abuse in the 1980's, where against all evidence, people still made allegations of some of the whackiest things happening at day care centers as acts of 'satanic ritual sex abuse'. at some point we can begin to use the word lie safely. either that or just outright paranoia.

Posted by: calibar at May 21, 2004 12:18 PM

Again, what's with the quotes around WMD?

--because we collapsed all kinds of weapons into "WMD" category to justify our claims. the term lost all meaning the way Clinton and Bush used it.

That is just silly. WMD is a very specific term of art in defense studies. WMD originally was a term developed in 1937 to address any weapon intended to damage large areas indiscriminantly. By the 50's the term ABC weapons (to cover Atomic, Biological, and Chemical Weapons) had been introduced. With the development of the hydrogen bomb, this was superceeded by the acronym NBC, to cover Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical weapons systems. By 1990 the term WMD was used to describe NBC weapons and subcategories of NBC weapons - specifically, Nuclear (including radiological weapons), Biological (including toxins), and Chemical Weapons.

That definition is pretty much fixed in stone, any assertions to the contrary are directly counter to a huge body of established terminology.

--------------------------------

The point being you provide no support to the allegation it's a "lie."

--one example. when it is crystal clear to the world that the so-called 'chemical weapons trailers' were a fraud and Dick Cheney continues to talk about them as though they were exactly that, i'm not sure what else we can call it.

or when a british political scientist can systematically refute the administrations' case for 'wmds' in iraq before the official invasion began i'm not sure there is really a difference anymore between false allegation and lie!

I'm reminded of the false accusations of child sex abuse in the 1980's, where against all evidence, people still made allegations of some of the whackiest things happening at day care centers as acts of 'satanic ritual sex abuse'. at some point we can begin to use the word lie safely. either that or just outright paranoia.

The assertion that the biological weapons trailers (or "chemical weapons trailers" as you call them) were patently not as advertised is incorrect. If you note this article, which states the following:

A U.S. intelligence report on the trailers, portions of which were read to ABCNEWS, said: "Biological weapons agent production is the only consistent, logical purpose for these vehicles."

The report also said the trailers were "strikingly similar" to mobile labs described by Secretary of State Colin Powell in his U.N. speech in February. In that speech, Powell said such labs were capable of producing anthrax.

Powell met with reporters today, refusing to describe the analysis as a vindication, but nevertheless expressing pride.

"We have taken our time on this one, because we wanted to make sure we got it right, and the intelligence community, I think, is convinced now that that's the purpose they served," he said.

Additionally, the claim that the whole world did not feel that Iraq possesed chemical weapons is likewise false. As given in a previous post, this is a fallacious argument, as it is an Argument by Consensus. Past that it is also factually incorrect. Nations that felt that Iraq had WMD and WMD programs include Russia, Germany, and Britan. Moreover, the UNMOVIC working document agreed substantially with the major thrust of these intelligence agencies.

If you cannot distinguish between a incorrect allegation and a lie, then much of the judicial system must be a mystery. The basic distinction is a matter of intent. If you believe that you know something that later turns out to be false, then that's a incorrect allegation. If you actually know the assertion to be untrue before you make any statement, and assert that something is true (contrary to your current knowledge) that is a lie. Seemingly, you are unable (or more likely unwilling) to live with the fact that it is possible for people to make honest mistakes.

I implore you to look at the UNMOVIC working document of March 6, 2003, in which the current status of inspections at the time was given. The document strongly suggests that Iraq had failed to meet its disarmement obligations. Furthermore, the discovery of the binary munition shows that they did not meet actually meet their obligations to disarm.

Additionally, if you go read the document you cited it notes that if Iraq had manufactured unitary agents, then they would have decayed. However, the existence of binary munitions turns this on its head completely. Thus, it is possible that stocks produced a significant amount of time ago could still very well be viable.

Moreover, the document that you cite supports the other two items demonstrated by the discovery of the shell. One - no Sarin-filled artillery shells were declared. Two - no binary munitions capability was declared. In fact, the document you link obliquely supports my position. Not only did Iraq fail on these two counts, but also that given this discovery, failure to declare these munitions still meant that a currently viable weapon had been discovered. As the document doesn't speak to the dates of manufacture of binary munitions, it also means that Iraq could have been producing binary Sarin munitions long after their primary production of unitary Sarin had stopped.

Finally, in re abuse allegations. You cannot safely use the word lie if there is no willful deception. According to the definitions, you would say that the ancient Greeks 'lied' about the heliocentric model of the universe. The Romans 'lied' about decimal notation. Just because you are opposed to the war does not mean that you have to twist definitions and facts to vindicate you in all circumstances.

It is entirely valid to say, "Fine, Iraq didn't meet its obligation to disarm fully. I just don't think that failure justifies war." Whatever people may want to believe, the intelligence community in specific, and governments as a whole are comprised of fallible humans, just like you and me, who make mistakes.

However, your response, in the words of former chief UN weapons inspector, Rolf Ekeus, "a distortion and a trivialization of a major threat to international peace and security".

----------------------

Finally, I do have to ask, why would Bush Sr., Clinton, and Bush Jr. all lie about WMD in Iraq? At the end of the day, those folks didn't have a whole lot of policy goals in common - so I don't see why they would collude on something like this.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 21, 2004 02:53 PM

calibar,

You provide, in support of your allegations of lies, 1) a single example, 2) a more systematic counter-claim (via the link) and 3) an analogy. I'm in agreement with virtually everything BRD is indicating, so what follows is a view from a different angle that largely dovetails with what he is indicating:

Your analogy, or recollection, advances your claim along rhetorical lines, but not substantively in the least. When attempting to show, to prove, that a diverse set of statements from the 90's through to early and mid 2003 and beyond by a broadly based (bi-partisan in both the legislative and executive branches) group of politicians can virtually be reduced to a "lie" or set of lies, such proofs require more intellectually rigorous arguments than allusions and analogies are capable of. Even Hans Blix has stated, in refutation that it was based on lies, that "[Bush/Blair] were 100 percent convinced that there were weapons of mass destruction." So again, we're talking about the subject of concerted "lies," not merely misperceptions, miscalculations, some instances of too much enthusiasm, etc.

Regarding the Cheney and bio-weapons trailers claim, I did a couple of googles and found no statement he made any later than early to mid 2003, in total I only found about a dozen google references and most of those were not his statements per se but were comments on his earlier statements. On this subject itself, I admittedly have never studied it very thoroughly though have pretty much been of the view that BRD expresses.

As regards the more substantive counter-claims in the runup to March, 2003 (e.g., the link you provide), no one disputes they (counter arguments) were being made, some of them indeed concerning substantive and appreciable aspects of the overall concern. There were claims and counter claims, some of them far too facile - but some of them substantive. I do not desire to be merely dismissive of the latter, the more substantive claims, but even disregarding the fact that we're now able to deal with the situation with the aid of hind-sight, thus limiting what we focus upon with the aid of the 20/20 vision that hindsight supplies, even at the time (2002/03) those counter-claims were clearly not persuasive even to the high-level Democratic politicians I previously quoted. Still further, there were almost legendary claims about the chicanery and subterfuge Hussein was using to hide his weapons and his weapons development programs, so there's little doubt this played into people's minds as well concerning the skepticism they directed toward Saddam Hussein's Iraq along with the idea that the counter-claims we're discussing were sufficient to assure against that skepticism.

In addition to the Blix quote provided above, a couple more quotes, the earlier ones provided were from 2002/03, the following from 1998:

"If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear. We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program." President Clinton, Feb. 17, 1998

"He will use those weapons of mass destruction again, as he has ten times since 1983." Sandy Berger, Clinton National Security Adviser, Feb 18, 1998

"Saddam Hussein has been engaged in the development of weapons of mass destruction technology which is a threat to countries in the region and he has made a mockery of the weapons inspection process." Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D, CA), Dec. 16, 1998

Posted by: Michael B at May 21, 2004 04:11 PM

those counter-claims were clearly not persuasive even to the high-level Democratic politicians I previously quoted.

--well, yeah, but they're democrats, what would any reasonable person expect? they tend to feel obligated to 'prove' their patriotism when challenged to support a war, especially in this post-911 age when patriotism is questioned if you oppose a war, even one based on the thinnest of pretexts like this current adventure. I'm not sure they were 'convinced' of anything but what their advisors were telling them in terms of reelection considerations. that they went along with Bush's fraudulent claims [or lies or false allegations, in a sense i agree with you, it doesn't matter how they are categorised, it was transparent at the time that they were baseless] is merely proof that they rolled over and played dead instead of risking their reelection chances.
Kerry, for example, had ample opportunity to meet with persons who were very knowledgeable about WMDs, Iraq, and were able to refute carefully every allegation and the sources of the allegations. He chose to ignore it, to not even consider it. That decision was based entirely on presidential election considerations.
----------------------------
Regarding the Cheney and bio-weapons trailers claim, I did a couple of googles and found no statement he made any later than early to mid 2003, in total I only found about a dozen google references and most of those were not his statements

-- "We've found a couple of semi-trailers at this point which we believe were in fact part of [a WMD] program," Cheney said. "I would deem that conclusive evidence, if you will, that he did in fact have programs for weapons of mass destruction."
Dick Cheny Jan. 23, 2004, BBC Interview

Let us agree Cheny is not lying, I'll settle for insane.
--------------------------------
Your counter quotes only confirm my argument that Bush Sr./Clinton/Bush Jr. consistently exaggarated, distorted, and/or outright lied about the level of 'threat' that Iraq posed to the United States.

Posted by: calibar at May 21, 2004 05:09 PM

Powell met with reporters today, refusing to describe the analysis as a vindication, but nevertheless expressing pride.

"We have taken our time on this one, because we wanted to make sure we got it right, and the intelligence community, I think, is convinced now that that's the purpose they served," he said.

--actually Powell, at that time, was doing his usual job of covering his tracks and dissembling. He knew that at the time there were already strong refutations of the trailers tall tale in the British media, which soon would be reported finally in the US media when it got to be too embarrassing to keep on promoting this 'find' when the rest of the world and internal CIA and even Powell's own State Dept. sources were refuting Powell's version. He has finally come around to admitting that the evidence he used in that failed UN speech was bogus.
----------------------------
Finally, I do have to ask, why would Bush Sr., Clinton, and Bush Jr. all lie about WMD in Iraq? At the end of the day, those folks didn't have a whole lot of policy goals in common - so I don't see why they would collude on something like this

--all wanted regime change, only differed on the method to do it. Clinton stopped short of outright invasion and instead conducted war by every other means including a harsh sanctions regime, illegal bombings of Iraq, spying, etc. Clinton lied time and again about the inspectors being 'kicked out' by Saddam. Bush sent in the marines. Big difference.

Posted by: calibar at May 21, 2004 05:24 PM

those counter-claims were clearly not persuasive even to the high-level Democratic politicians I previously quoted.

--well, yeah, but they're democrats, what would any reasonable person expect? they tend to feel obligated to 'prove' their patriotism when challenged to support a war, especially in this post-911 age when patriotism is questioned if you oppose a war, even one based on the thinnest of pretexts like this current adventure. I'm not sure they were 'convinced' of anything but what their advisors were telling them in terms of reelection considerations. that they went along with Bush's fraudulent claims [or lies or false allegations, in a sense i agree with you, it doesn't matter how they are categorised, it was transparent at the time that they were baseless] is merely proof that they rolled over and played dead instead of risking their reelection chances.
Kerry, for example, had ample opportunity to meet with persons who were very knowledgeable about WMDs, Iraq, and were able to refute carefully every allegation and the sources of the allegations. He chose to ignore it, to not even consider it. That decision was based entirely on presidential election considerations.

First, I would dearly, dearly, dearly love for you to produce any direct quote in which someone is called, verbatim, unpatriotic.

Next, you assert that Democrats are somehow compelled to vote pro-war, yet in the aftermath of the 1991 invasion of Kuwait, we get this < a href="http://hnn.us/articles/999.html" target="_blank">vote, which was split along heavily partisan lines.

On January 10 ... war resolutions were introduced into both houses of Congress. On January 12 the Congress voted to approve war with Iraq. The Senate voted 52 to 47, "the smallest margin ever to vote for war," Bush recalled. The House voted 250 to 183.

This runs counter to your logic that the Democrats were busy being browbeaten into supporting the resolution.

Then, we get along to the bit where you assert that the claims were transparently baseless - I will again ask you to read things like the UK Ministry of Defense reports, as well as reports by other intelligence agencies or even reports by think tanks at the time and the sources they quote. If you think the reports were transparently baseless then that would make you an extraordinary element in any defense or intelligence community around the world.

I am also quite curious about these people who "very knowledgeable about WMDs, Iraq, and were able to refute carefully every allegation and the sources of the allegations." Considering that the consensus opinion in the intelligence and defense communities was pretty cohesive regarding the existence of proscribed actions and Iraqi failure to disarm - and that opinion was that they had not gotten rid of their programs. Moreover, this, as I've said over and over, is born out by Dr. Kay's interim report.
----------------------------

Regarding the Cheney and bio-weapons trailers claim, I did a couple of googles and found no statement he made any later than early to mid 2003, in total I only found about a dozen google references and most of those were not his statements.

-- "We've found a couple of semi-trailers at this point which we believe were in fact part of [a WMD] program," Cheney said. "I would deem that conclusive evidence, if you will, that he did in fact have programs for weapons of mass destruction."
Dick Cheny Jan. 23, 2004, BBC Interview

Let us agree Cheny is not lying, I'll settle for insane.

I would suppose that you have some reason to disagree with VP Cheney? I would also ask that you do us all the courtesy of linking to your sources as you quote them. It would do a great deal to butress your allegations. Absent an ability to check, I cannot place that much weight on your quotes.

To whatever point you seem to be making - how are mobile biological weapons facilities not a violation of disarmament agreements? And if they are not biological production facilities, could you do us all the grand favor of explaining what, exactly, they were, and why they were designed the way they were and what magical purpose these trailers were supposed to fill?

But past all this, you derive evidence of insanity on the part of VP Cheney how? To paraphrase your comment elsewhere on this site "my own sense from what you mean by [insanity] is the stating of ideas with which you disagree."
--------------------------------

Your counter quotes only confirm my argument that Bush Sr./Clinton/Bush Jr. consistently exaggarated, distorted, and/or outright lied about the level of 'threat' that Iraq posed to the United States.

This gets back to the topmost statement in this post in which you decide that lying (willful distortion of evidence) is equivalent to misperception. And then you meander down here to assert that the actions of three administrations (with two of the most divisve presidents in modern memory) over the last 13 years were magically coordinated, intentionally, I might add, to satisfy some nonsensical ravings. This is an extraordinary claim unsupported by any fact or rational argument. Moreover you seem to be as reluctant to substantiate this claim as you are enthusiastic about throwing it about heedlessly.

-------------------------------

Powell met with reporters today, refusing to describe the analysis as a vindication, but nevertheless expressing pride.

"We have taken our time on this one, because we wanted to make sure we got it right, and the intelligence community, I think, is convinced now that that's the purpose they served," he said.

--actually Powell, at that time, was doing his usual job of covering his tracks and dissembling. He knew that at the time there were already strong refutations of the trailers tall tale in the British media, which soon would be reported finally in the US media when it got to be too embarrassing to keep on promoting this 'find' when the rest of the world and internal CIA and even Powell's own State Dept. sources were refuting Powell's version. He has finally come around to admitting that the evidence he used in that failed UN speech was bogus.

First, I would like to see if you have any sources regarding State or the CIA on this. Any at all. Second of all, what the hell does the British media have to do with the price of tea in asserting the validity of a claim. They're reporters for Pete's sake - not engineers, not WMD specialists, not bioligists. That's why I would love to see what sources you make these assertions on and the claims they make.

----------------------------

Finally, I do have to ask, why would Bush Sr., Clinton, and Bush Jr. all lie about WMD in Iraq? At the end of the day, those folks didn't have a whole lot of policy goals in common - so I don't see why they would collude on something like this

--all wanted regime change, only differed on the method to do it. Clinton stopped short of outright invasion and instead conducted war by every other means including a harsh sanctions regime, illegal bombings of Iraq, spying, etc. Clinton lied time and again about the inspectors being 'kicked out' by Saddam. Bush sent in the marines. Big difference.

First of all, you have yet to provide any support whatsoever for these assertions. Any evidence at all of the willful deception you assert, or Clinton lying about inspectors getting kicked out. I know full well what was said, and contrary to the popular media and public recollection, Clinton did not speak of inspectors getting kicked out. I ask you, yet again, to provide any support - any at all for this.

Secondly, how, exactly, would you square Bush Sr. lying about WMD (for the sake of regime change) and yet failing to go onto Baghdad in 1991? You imply that he was all for regime change, had already sent in the marines and then did something wildly inconsistent with the actions which you ascribe to him.

Third, you never really get around to explaining, in any way shape or form what the point to seeking regime change (that was so magically consistent across huge party boundaries) in Iraq was, such that it was necessary to 'lie' about WMD.

Still waiting on that.

Posted by: Bravo Romeo Delta at May 21, 2004 06:09 PM

To whatever point you seem to be making - how are mobile biological weapons facilities not a violation of disarmament agreements? And if they are not biological production facilities, could you do us all the grand favor of explaining what, exactly, they were, and why they were designed the way they were and what magical purpose these trailers were supposed to fill?

--
wow, you really need to come up to date on the outcome of this 'find'

Read and Weep

---------------------

Clinton did not speak of inspectors getting kicked out. I ask you, yet again, to provide any support - any at all for this

-- Well, they sure didn't mind the media repeating the myth over and over. in fact clinton went along with the falsehood.

I am impressed, Clinton doesn't appear to have actually said anything about the inspectors being kicked out by Saddam, it turns out to be a myth largely promoted by the 'liberal' media and later picked up by the Bush administration and liberals who promoted the 'urgent need' to bomb and invade Iraq.
---------------------------------
Secondly, how, exactly, would you square Bush Sr. lying about WMD (for the sake of regime change) and yet failing to go onto Baghdad in 1991? You imply that he was all for regime change, had already sent in the marines and then did something wildly inconsistent with the actions which you ascribe to him.

--Different in form, same in substance.
-------------------------------
Third, you never really get around to explaining, in any way shape or form what the point to seeking regime change (that was so magically consistent across huge party boundaries) in Iraq was, such that it was necessary to 'lie' about WMD.

--no, i believe i meant, if i did not say, the only way to accomplish a military invasion was to lie about the extent of the 'military threat' since the humanitarian claims would not persuade americans or europeans. thus the need to scare people into believing in the need for a unilateral invasion [or a 'coalition of the US, a small number of Brits in the less hostile city of Basra, and a bunch of little countries that could be bought off with promises of aid for sending small numbers of troops to Iraq]. However, the exaggarations and lies were not convincing and too easily refuted, the bulk of the world didn't buy into them, not even close.

Posted by: calibar at May 21, 2004 07:41 PM

First, I would dearly, dearly, dearly love for you to produce any direct quote in which someone is called, verbatim, unpatriotic.

--would you like examples from the comments sections in this blog?

Posted by: calibar at May 21, 2004 07:45 PM

Well, I guess Colin Powell has decided that he's just going to be a little more honest from now on. Perhaps he's doing it unilaterally, or perhaps he's doing it as part of making a coordinated case to the American people, a message that many Americans might be ready for now. Either way, he's doing it.

Read excerpts from a report on
a radio interview with Laura Ingraham.

== Powell says U.S. need for oil influenced actions in Iraq Secretary of State Colin Powell described the U.S. need for oil as a motivating factor in the Bush administration's decision to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and seek his replacement by a democratic government. [Don't you love the wording here? "Motivating factor". Much stronger than Wolfie's wimpy after the fact "bureaucratic reason" for going with the WMD pretext.] Powell, in an interview with Laura Ingraham on the Westwood One Radio Network, said the U.S. needs good relations with countries that can help it meet its energy demands. [Presumably including Saudi Arabia, until the social time-bomb fuse burns down, anyway.] "We need stable regimes in this part of the world who will be partners and friends of ours, because the fact of the matter is we do rely on imported oil to fuel our economy and to fuel our nation," Powell said in the interview. [Interesting - I wonder in what sense he meant to distinguish fueling an economy and a nation? Well, the biggest single cost of the invasion of Iraq was fuel.] "In Iraq, we had an unstable regime, a dictatorial regime that was ready to be pushed aside," he said. [I wonder what regime-change timing criteria he applies in saying that?] "That's not sending our troops overseas for oil," Powell said. "That's sending our troops overseas to put in place a democratic nation rested on a foundation of openness and human rights that will be a friend and partner of the United States." [Yeah, but if you can't get that nice stuff, at least get the oil, right?] ===

Glad we got that cleared up finally. (Actually, I think Friedman writing in an NYT op-ed hinted much earlier that the oil was one of several factors - you can be a liberal hawk and still think that, can't you? Why not? Some liberal hawks have a shred of pragmatism.)

Think about it. It really makes sense. After all, if it was about toppling dictators running personality cults and torture chambers, and grasping (quite successfully, even boastfully) after WMD, then you go after Kim Jong Il, don't you?

And if it was about ending a genocidal regime in the Arab world, and creating a model liberal democracy in the process, wouldn't Sudan have been a much more sensible target? Sudan has no oil, and neither does North Korea, so you'd go into it free of suspicion about your motives.

Yes, with all the moral courage in the world, you'd pick targets like that. The problem is, as Hitler said, "War is like throwing open a door onto a darkened room." It's a roll of the dice. You don't know what you're getting into. You could be getting into a mess. What if it starts to drag out, and the American people (to whom the Commander in Chief is ultimately answerable) decide that it's all just too much trouble? Then you have to leave a mess behind. Perhaps a much worse mess than you found. Perhaps even a civil war whose casualties would exceed those of the mass killings of the dictator.

No, what you need is not just a moral case. You need an exit strategy in case things go bad. Well, we have one. We had one before we went in. Slap a "democracy" sticker on a de facto Kurdistan (despite only one rigged election, and that one quite some years ago). Give the Kurds Kirkuk in exchange for a share of the oil and you can even make the war pay for itself. Declare victory. Retreat. Then we have a result that matches the Powell formula. Sort of.

This was always a possibility. I figured it out even before the invasion. It doesn't take a genius. You just have to be able to read a newspaper, look up numbers on the web, and do arithmetic.

Now it's a looming possibility. And I wouldn't put it past this administration to take that option. Generals are already predicting even more unrest and violence after the 'sovereighty' handover. Ahmed Chalabi is being fingered as an Iranian spy. The leader of the IGC was recently assassinated by a suicide bomber. At this moment, Karbala is being described as "strangely quiet." The calm before the storm?

A high enough U.S. GI casualty count will have your average American screaming for an exit. Your average American seems to think that gas is expensive right now because oil is expensive, when it's really a matter of strained refinery capacity. Never mind. "We need cheap gas," they'll say. "And we don't need our boys and girls coming home in boxes anymore."

Well, but look at those oil prices. They are a factor. When I first wrote here that Iraq has a trillion dollars worth of oil, it was when oil was cheaper. Now some are saying it could go to $50/bbl. That means that Kirkuk and surrounding areas alone are pretty much at that $1 trillion mark in today's prices. The plum just gets juicier, but the political carcass is rotting in the heat, getting riper by the day.

I think we need to stay in there. I think we need to get things cleaned up in Iraq. But America is a democracy, and this democracy may only get the international moral standing that it deserves. Anyone who thought that was never a risk from the outset is pathetically naive. This was one good reason to oppose the invasion - that you can't count on moral courage from your fellow voters in America. And it's still a good one.

Posted by: Michael Turner at May 22, 2004 04:20 AM

calibar,

To put it very modestly and very kindly indeed, your lack of almost any intellectual rigor in support of your claims continues unabated. Not only so, but in keeping with the ubiquitous m.o. found among the self-enamored hard and softer Left, it continues with an ever more loudly proclaimed triumphalism, poorly founded arrogations and self-referential forms of rationalization. It's as if you have but a few dollars in your checking account, yet are writing checks totaling millions of dollars. I doubt, with an attendant lack of funds, that a bank manager would be persuaded by bravado and triumphalism alone.

First, you have not come anywhere close to showing there was a concerted effort, across executive branch administrations and across partisan lines in the legislative branch, to lie to the public concerning Iraq. In fact, though without saying so directly, you've backed off from defending those more significant and more general allegations. Your last foray in defense of that claim can be discounted as it was nothing more than a sweepingly dismissive smirk ("well, yea, but they're Democrats ..."). As was said, intellectual rigor that is not.

Secondly, to vacantly assert that the counter-quotes provided (all from high-ranking executive and legislative branch Democrats) simply support your contention of concerted lies across three administrations, is a self-referential form of reasoning if ever there was one. Whether such an unsupported assertion reflects mental laziness or some other motive is immaterial to the prima facie fact that it certainly reflects, yet again, a lack of intellectual rigor regardless as to the cause or motive of that lack.

Thirdly, I'll cover what you are now limiting your charge of "lies" to, the mobile bio-warfare labs, in a followup post.

Posted by: Michael B at May 22, 2004 01:20 PM

calibar, concerning the mobile bio-warfare labs themselves, the following:

I did not find the text of a BBC interview, though did find text from an NPR interview conducted by Juan Williams on this identical topic and date (1/23/04) containing your referenced quote, so I'll assume that's the interview you're referring to.

V.P. Cheney's fuller quote follows, with my own emphases:

"In terms of the question what is there now, we know for example that prior to our going in that he had spent time and effort acquiring mobile biological weapons labs, and we're quite confident he did, in fact, have such a program. We've found a couple of semi trailers at this point which we believe were, in fact, part of that program. Now it's not clear at this stage whether or not he used any of that to produce or whether he was simply getting ready for the next war. That, in my mind, is a serious danger in the hands of a man like Saddam Hussein, and I would deem that conclusive evidence, if you will, that he did, in fact, have programs for weapons of mass destruction."

Several items of note here. Again, your own continuing lack of intellectual rigor and in this case a lack of honesty on your part as well are noticeable. You failed to provide a link that would verify your excerpted quote and you failed to note an ellipsis in the quote you do provide where you omitted pivotal aspects of V.P. Cheney's fuller quote. (Most any day of the week people can go to Brad DeLong's or Kevin Drum's or any number of other sites to find these types of intellectual failings, unexplicated ellipses and similar forms of lack of integrity. I.e., casuistries and sophistries aplenty, but little concerted integrity or intellectual rigor. Ironic, that allegations concerning lies need to be forwarded with such sophistries and lies themselves. Ironic being an overly kind way to put it.)

Cheney's statement as a whole is not difficult to understand; much as it is not difficult to understand why you decided to provide only an edited excerpt of this quote. At different points Cheney is clearly referring to Iraq in the past, then in the present; again, reading the quote, that is not at all difficult to comprehend. Cheney says, referring to the past, that we've known Saddam Hussein's Iraq was working on mobile labs.

Supportive references:

9 Sept 2002, The UK International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), in its document, Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction – A Net Assessment, cites advice from former Iraqi officials that Iraq had "a fleet of disguised refrigerator Renault trucks, which have been converted to mobile biological production laboratories." It goes on to acknowledge this has not been confirmed.

24 Sept, 2002, a UK dossier entitled Iraq's WMDs, it notes 1) UNSCOM established that Iraq had considered mobile bio-labs, 2) that defectors had witnessed that they had in fact been developed and 3) and further intel confirmed their existence.

Oct, 2002, the CIA in a National Intelligence Estimate noted that in 1995 Iraq planned to secretively construct seven (7) mobile bio-warfare labs, one on a railcar and six (6) on semi-trailers.

When Cheney refers to the present, he speaks in terms of what he believes and he speaks in tentative terms when he indicates he's not sure about the developmental stage the labs (the two that were discovered) may have been in at the time they were found.

In summary, Cheney was not making the blanket and overly simplistic statement you and others have attempted to accuse him of. Instead, he makes a general reference (highly generalized and summarized for purposes of the interview, admittedly) to past intelligence, then states that he believes the two trailers found may well have been a part of that overall development program and thirdly states that the overall program (not merely the two trailers) represent conclusive evidence that programs for development existed, not that the two trailers per se represented conclusive evidence.

What might broadly be thought of as the Left's echo chamber has repeated (and repeated and repeated) the allegation of lies as if it were an indisputable fact. Such is not the case, the sophistries and casuistries of the soft and harder Left's echo chambers not withstanding.

Posted by: Michael B at May 22, 2004 01:26 PM

Finally, while I for one don't believe anything is conclusive (either pro or con) regarding the two trailers themselves, the NYT and Guardian articles you reference don't supply much in terms of what is conclusive either, for example the NYT abstract follows, my emphases:

"Government officials say Defense Intelligence Agency experts believe that most likely use for two mysterious trailers found in Iraq was to produce hydrogen for weather balloons used in artillery practice, not biological weapons; agency and Central Intelligence Agency officials say agencies still stand by their May 28 report that trailers were for making biological arms; it was not previously known that majority of Defense Intelligence Agency's engineering teams had come to disagree with that report; officials say teams had not completed work at time report was drafted and that their views were not taken into account at that time"

So concerning the two trailers themselves, a majority agree they were not likely used for bio-warfare usage, while some others remain of a contrary opinion. But again Cheney was not referring solely to these two trailers alone when he made the "conclusive evidence" claim, instead he was referring to the overall program and that it intimated evidence in support of a developmental program, not that the two trailers per se rendered that evidence.

What is both conclusive and evident is the Left's and the main stream media's (MSM) echo chamber, in this case to advance an allegation of lies via gross and oft-repeated misrepresentation, to put it very kindly indeed.

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Posted by: sonneries at September 9, 2004 05:10 AM

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Posted by: sonneries at September 9, 2004 05:14 AM

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bool boum badaboum boy i need you brasil braveheart bring me to life broadway buffy Bullet with butterfly wings bump bump bump c est une belle journée calabria California Dreamin california love california Californication calinda Caméra Café ça va dech can u feel it can you feel it can you trust me candela 2 cannabis can't hold us down can't let you go cant nobody can't stop lovin you capitaine flam Careless whisper carmina burana Carnaval de Lanz casimir cassée cat claw cat law C'est à Baba c'est trop chan chan changes chapeau melon bottes cuir Chapi chapo charmed chebba cherry blossom girl chihuahua choopeta Mamae eu quero Christophe Colomb cleaning out my closet clint eastwood clocks close to mine Colargol collant dim come as you are Come Clean come into my world come undone come with me Comfortably Numb comme des connards complicated confessions part II connemara Cosmocats crazy in love cry me a river cry crying at the discotheque cum cum mania cuando volveras da hype dallas dammit dance to the underground danger Dans un spoutnik Davy Crockett dawson Denver Le dernier Dinosaure depuis que j'fume plus d'shit dernière danse des mots qui resonnent desenchantée despre tine devil's haircut di sole e di azzuro Diary die another day dilemma dis moi que l'amour dis moi si je te saoule DJ donnes moi le temps Don't Go girls & Boys don't let me go don't mess with my man Don't Say Nuthin don't stop the music baby don't think you're the first down down down dr hannibal dragostea din tei dragostea-din-tei-remix droles de dames e ritorno da te echoes elle s'ennuie en apesanteur En Berne end of may Enter sandman entre nous entrer dans la lumière envie d'aimer Et c est parti Et c'est pas fini et l'on n'y peut rien et j'attends Every Breath You Take everybody's changing Everything I do I do it for you Everytime excuse me miss exorciste Face a la mer fade to grey Fallin Famille adams family affair family portrait fan Fanta feel free feel feeling kinda strange Félix le Chat femme like you Fiesta de la noche fiesta fighter flamme Flashdance Flawless go to city Follow me follow me follow forever fragglerock france telecom freak Free Like The Wind free friends frozen funky cops Funky Town Shrek 2 gangsta lovin générique de h Georgie get busy get down moses get it on get over you ghetto musick gigi lamoroso Girls go with the flow gocce di memoria goldorak Goodnight moon Kill Bill gossip folks grace grease great blue sky happy days happy harry potter hatikvah Hawaiienne Heaven hell yeah he's unbelievable hey sexy lady hey ya hidden camera Hit My Heart Hold The Line hole in the head hollywood homme a la moto hot in here Hotel House of Jealous Lovers how come how you gonna act like that how you remind me human behaviour I Believe i can i can't read you I Dont Wanna Know I Dont Want You Back i drove all night i feel good I get the party on i got somebody new i know what you want i need a girl instinct I Promised Myself i will always love you if tomorrow never comes if you come to me if you're not the one ignition il me dit que je suis belle Il me donne rendez vous I'll be right here waiting for you i'll be your angel illusion i'm falling i'm proud i'm real i'm with you imbranato in coming out in da club in my place in the end in the shadows in this world incassables indie walk infatuation inspecteur gadget is this love It Can't Be Right it wasn't me italie it's my life it's raining men i've got the music jackass j'ai besoin d'amour J'ai confiance en toi J'ai demandé à la lune j'ai des choses a te dire j'ai plus de tunes j'suis raide james bond jamming j'attends l'amour Jayce et les Conquérants de la Lumière Je cours je saigne encore je suis et je resterai Je Te Promets je trace Je veux donner ma voix je voudrais la connaître je voulais te dire que je t'attends Jeanne et Serge j'en ai marre jenny from the block Juliette Je t'aime jumpin jusqu'au bout Just A Friend just a little just k 2000 karma police keep this fire burning Ken le survivant kolé séré Kusha las payas La bamba La Bomba la chanson con La chanson d'Heidi La Marseillaise La Panthère Rose la passion La récréation La Sentinelle la serenissima la soupe aux choux la vengeance aux deux visages la verite si je mens lady in blue laisse parler les gens Laissons entrer le soleil la main verte l'amour est un soleil l'amour toujours las ketchup last night l'aventurier le bon la brute et le truand Le collège fou fou fou Le Flic de Beverly Hills le frunkp le grand blond avec une chaussure le grand secret Le lion est mort ce soir Le monde magique de Gigi Le muppet show le mur du son le parrain Le petit bonhomme en mousse Le poulailler Le prince de bel-air le saint le seigneur des anneaux 3 Le seigneur des anneaux le son qui tue Le téléphone pleure le tombeur Le vent nous porteras Leave Get Out les bronzes font du ski Les bronzés Les Choristes Vois sur ton chemin Les Entrechats les gendarmes de st tropez Les guignols 2 les mondes engloutis les mots bleus les mysteres de l'ouest les mysterieuses cités d or Let's all chant l'homme à la moto li bia bouquet Liberté de pensée life for rent life on mars lifestyle of the rich and famous light my fire like a prayer lil' kim mr cheeks lily dale l'instinct Lithium Live is life live track livin my life Loin d'ici Looney Tunes L'orange lose yourself loser lotus love doesn't have to hurt
love dont let me go love profusion love united love's divine luce lucky star ma benz ma seule chanson d'amour mad world mademoiselle chante le blues magic dance floor theme 3 magic love magnum Make Luv make me smile maldon Mangez moi manhattan kaboul maniac maria jose marie match nul material girl Matrix Maya l'abeille Maybe mc gyver me gustas tu me passer de toi metal gear metatox mezze verita MI2 midas touch midnight express 2 Milkshake millenium millesime miss you mission impossible molly's chamber mon amant de st jean mon mec à moi monstertruck driver Mourir demain Move ya body move your feet mundian to back ke Musclor les Maîtres de l'Univers mushaboom music gets the best of me musique my band my best wasn't good enough my immortal Mystère et suspens ne reviens pas nescafe Never Felt Like This Before new born no good advice no reason to cry your eyes out no woman no cry nothing else matters novocaine for the soul nu flow NUMB number one Numero 10 Obsesion Océan ojos asi ok olio on n'oublie jamais rien on n'sait jamais on the horizon one love one more time Only One open your eyes Pan y toros papi chulo papito ven a mi parce qu on vient de loin Paris latino partenaire particulier pas de panique a bord pas de temps a perdre people per dire di no picture P-i-m-p plantation play Plus haut Poeme to a horse poubel' man pres de moi Pull up pulp fiction pump it up que je t'aime quelqu'un m'a dit qui de nous deux quite ou double rabbi jacob ragga string rain down on me ramaganana real slim shaddy redemption regarde moi reggae night requiem pour un con respire retiens moi Révolucion Revolution remix revolution techno 1 revolution techno 2 revolution rise up River Below Rock Your Body rocking music rocky rue de la liberte run baby run run thru rythm is a dancer rythm is love sache salma ya salama Salut Bayoune Sara Perche Ti Amo satisfaction Saturday night save me smallville scandalous senorita Seven Nation Army sex and the city Sex machine sexed up sexy pour moi shake it shape she shined on me shut up siamo soli Sick And Tired simpsons sing for the moment Sk8er Boi slide along slide smile Smoke on the water sneak preview So sexy Sobri Notre Destin soft like me Some Kind of Monster somewhere i belong song 2 sorry seems to be the hardest word soul bossa nova sound of the underground speak to me speechless spider man spin around Spirit in the Sky spring stach stach stan starsky et hutch starway to heaven stay together for the kid staying alive step right up still waiting stir it up stole street life stunt 101 suga suga suicide is painless Summer Sunshine Sunday driver sunrise super duper love Super mario supercopter superstar superwoman sur la route Surfing On A Rocket surrender survivor sweet dreams sweet music sweet soca music take me out take me tonight Take you there take your shoes off talk to me dance with me taxi 3 tchouk tchouk music tear drop tellement n brick Tendrement Thats All Right the beat goes on the funeral of hearts The Legend of Zelda 2 The logical song the magic key the next episode the one The Reason the scientist the seed the way you move the willing this feeling this love This picture thoia thoing through the rain ti amo titanic tomorrow heroes too lost in you top gun tourne les violons toute seule toxic tranquille emile tu che ne sai tu es foutu tu es mon autre turn Around turn me on Twisted Nerve Kill Bill U Got It Bad u make me wanna un enfant de toi Un gaou a Oran unchained melody underneath your clothes une femme avec une femme une fille de l'est Universal Prayer unnamed feeling va y avoir du sport vas y francky Video killed the radio star Vindicated spider man2 Vino Griego walk idiot walk Waves Of Luv We Are Spider man2 We Are The Champions we don't care we have a dream we need liberation we will rock you weekend Week-end Welcome Back what about me whats luv what's your flava when i get you alone when you look at me where is my mind Wherever You Will Go whiskey lullaby white flag with a little help from my friends without me work it out work it x files yeah year 3000 yerushalaim shel zahav ymca you and i you and me bubblin you can leave your head on you don't know my name you drive me crazy you rock my world you're my mate Zelda

Posted by: sonneries at September 9, 2004 05:15 AM

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