May 04, 2004
New Column
My new Tech Central Station column is up: Naming the Enemy.
Posted by Michael J. Totten at May 4, 2004 10:49 PMAwesome
Posted by: Daniel Kauffman at May 4, 2004 11:00 PMAwesome
Posted by: Daniel Kauffman at May 4, 2004 11:00 PMGreat stuff, Michael. Very glad that you brought in the Algerians.
Posted by: miklos rosza at May 5, 2004 01:57 AMGreat! You even added Pol Pot, too.
I do wish you could have restated your earlier theme about the race. I truly believe Iran is planning to get nukes; and to distribute them; and that Tel Aviv is in genuine danger of being nuked in the next 5 years -- like a 5, 10% chance. Huge.
The only solution -- A World Without Dictators.
But how do we get there? UN Democracy Caucus, NATO as a world posse of the willing, and Dems doing constructive criticism of Bush, like the need in Iraq for constitutent based districts instead of national parties. Iraq will become a bloodbath.
(http://tomgrey.motime.com/1083696987#269782)
Posted by: Tom Grey at May 5, 2004 02:31 AMMJT,
Not a bad article, but you still aren't quite capturing the true scale of the problem. We are in the beginning stages of a resumption of the mortal conflict between the Islamic world and Western Christendom. There are two main differences this time from where we left off this conflict back at the Seige of Vienna. First, the West is post-Christian. Second, the Jewish world is firmly in the Western camp this time.
But what do we do about it? The Iraq campaign was plan A. I don't think there is a plan B.
I can no longer avoid the conclusion that the Iraqi campaign has failed. There were two goals in this campaign. One was to re-stablish the deterrent effect of American military power. The second was to establish a beach head for liberal reform in the Arab/Muslim world.
Disasterously, Western anti-American leftists and power-hungry Democratic partisans have nurtured enough disunity within the West and within America that Iraqi campaign has been irreversibly undermined. We simply don't have he collective will to win. Defeat has been snatched from the jaws of victory.
A division of labor has been established in which the Left provides the paralyzing injection on Western society leaving the jihadis a clear field within which to operate.
http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/2004_03_01_belmontclub_archive.html#107921898009995819
Whether or not you are Christian, it is clear that Christianity was our immune system to Islamic poison. In our Marxist, post-Christian Western world we have no resistance. The poison seeps through our system unfelt and unnoticed due to our Marxist induced sedation.
Meanwhile, the storm still gathers. In the run up to WWII, we didn't have the will to confront the gathering storm while it was still weak. We only fought after it reached full strength and crashed on our shores. So it will be again.
The only questions left are where will the storm hit first, and will we have the strength to achieve victory when it hits. Will it hit America, Israel or Europe first? Our enemy is smart. They know us better than we know them. They will strike us where we are weakest. They will strike first in Europe.
Posted by: HA at May 5, 2004 04:19 AMOT
Hundreds of Vietnam veterans including all of John Kerry's commanding officers and 19 of 23 of the officers that served with him in Vietnam have signed a statement that he is unfit to serve as Commander in Chief:
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/5/3/92240.shtml
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110005036
Posted by: HA at May 5, 2004 04:31 AMMichael: Perhaps the answer to Keith Berry's question is more succinct than one sentance. Perhaps these two words represent the long term nature of the enemy within that destroys more of the beneficial basis of our culture than it enhances. It gives succor to external enemies, weakens resolve and courage from within while reducing our civil liberties and daily behavior to the lowest level. Perhaps it can all be summed up in one representative, Keith Berry.
Posted by: Richard McCarter at May 5, 2004 04:39 AMHA sees the war in broader scope as mortal conflict between the Islamic world and Western Christendom.
That's not right because we aren't at war with unarmed civilians. They are the Islamic world, for the most part. Some of them cheer the jihadis, but that doesn't make us at war even with them. You can't bomb them for that.
Oh, we have them in our scope, alright. We're targeting their governments for liberalization, the institution of constitutional democracy. This will open their societies - their discussions, their minds - to the injection of various ideas from the West (equality under the law, tolerance of disagreement, preoccupation with amassing wealth rather than enemies, etc.). In fifty years the enemy will be mostly dead: Islamic fascism, killed without firing a shot. There will still be Islam and there will still be many problems. But the war will be over.
Liberal idealism? Maybe, but there are only two other possibilities: We eliminate some of their big cities or, as is only a matter of time, they eliminate some of ours. But that's not how this is going to go. There is no other choice than liberal idealism.
This is a war of ideas in a very new sense of the term.
Posted by: Jim at May 5, 2004 05:57 AMBringing Justice and Civilization to Arabs?
Posted by: calibar at May 5, 2004 06:06 AMThank you for saying what it seems everyone in the political realm and the mainstream media will not or cannot say. It is as clear as the nose on your face that we are at war with radical Islamisists, but it is also clear that western democracy will not truly confront this truth until we've had something worse than 9/11.
We (westerners) have assumed the Crusades were over, but clearly they have just been in cessation for 600 years.
Posted by: J.R. at May 5, 2004 07:26 AMWe (westerners) have assumed the Crusades were over, but clearly they have just been in cessation for 600 years.
--This rhetoric makes Bush sound like a pacifist.
Posted by: calibar at May 5, 2004 07:32 AM"Before wading into Middle Eastern totalitarianism, Berman first described the shared ideas of European totalitarians, including the Italian Fascists, the German Nazis, the Spanish Nationalists, and the Russian Communists"
So is totalitarianism inherent in Islam or is a European import grafted onto Islam?
Is our Enemy more influenced by Mohammed or by the totalitarian philosopers of the West (Fascism, Communism, National Socialism, etc)? Discussion?
PS: Here is more on our Foes:
http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/05/Inelegance.shtml
Posted by: Ex at May 5, 2004 08:01 AMYou know, Michael's answer is true but, of course, incomplete. Short answers almost always are.
The other enemy is us. Or at least that part of us which hates itself. Its voice inhabits the Left, where the noble Western tradition of self-criticism becomes an end in itself and degenerates from a necessary virtue into a suicidal half-truth.
Revolutions, it is commonly observed, devour their own children. Why? Here I have my own idiosyncratic theory of evil. One of its deep sources in the psyche is horror at impurity. Revolutionaries, be they Marxists or Jihadis, are driven by a loathing of the impure world they live in and by an overwhelming desire for a pure world. And that desire eventually requires them to turn on each other, and finally, reveals that they too are not pure enough to live.
That's the "pure" form. But in the West, where the decaying remnants of Marx's shadow infect the Left, you can see the dynamic: living in a mental and emotional world where the only important issue is the victims vs the oppressors, it is clear that the successful civilizations of the West...and especially its paragon, America...must be oppressive because they are successful. And success is always at the expense of a victim. And so, impure America and almost as impure Europe, have lost the right to exist.
Part of the Arab takeover of Egypt in the 7th (?) century was engineered by the Copts, the native Egyptian Christians who differed theologically from the Byzantine Christians of the ruling Roman Empire. So great was the hatred of the Copts for the Byzantines that they cooperated with the invading Muslims, those evangelists of the Religion of Peace.
The fruits of their choice have been visited on them now for many centuries. They are not a powerless and oppressed minority, strangers in their own homeland.
There are two fronts to this war: the Muslims and the Left.
Posted by: Stephen at May 5, 2004 08:49 AMRichard McCarter: Perhaps the answer to Keith Berry's question is more succinct than one sentance... Perhaps it can all be summed up in one representative, Keith Berry.
Why, because he opposed the invasion of Iraq?
He also said he liked my article. So if he "gets" who the enemy is, how can he be the enemy? Unless you think liberals are the enemy instead of Islamists.
That's the "pure" form. But in the West, where the decaying remnants of Marx's shadow infect the Left, you can see the dynamic: living in a mental and emotional world where the only important issue is the victims vs the oppressors,
--in a post-911 world, I thought it was people like you who were playing the victim card, thus the calls for eternal revenge on perceived enemies and bolstered support for authoritarian regimes in the mideast?
Posted by: calibar at May 5, 2004 09:23 AMcalibar: Victims don't use military might to crush foes.
I think it is clear which faction is slavishly devoted to the slave morality.
Posted by: Ex at May 5, 2004 09:33 AMGood piece. Unfortunately, your site has a bunch of objectionable crap, so this is my first and last visit.
Posted by: Joshua Chamberlain at May 5, 2004 09:40 AMMichael's on it like white on rice (or brown on rice if you get it from one of those darned Co-ops). But for a more broad answer, I still say,
"We're at war with whomever decides that they are at war with us. Whether we recognize it or not."
Posted by: Bill at May 5, 2004 09:43 AMI have to ditto the previous ‘Awesome’. This is an excellent essay. If journalists demand that we ‘name the enemy’, maybe the politicians will finally be honest about who we’re fighting.
Here I have my own idiosyncratic theory of evil. One of its deep sources in the psyche is horror at impurity. Revolutionaries, be they Marxists or Jihadis, are driven by a loathing of the impure world they live in and by an overwhelming desire for a pure world.
This is so true – one of the founders of the current Islamist Jihad, Sayyed Qutb, began to hate the West when he went to a Methodist church dance. He was horrified to see that men were allowed to dance with women in a house of worship – and the minister was dancing too! This was proof to him that the west was disgusting, foul and corrupted.
Posted by: mary at May 5, 2004 09:48 AMHA --
you're off in metaphorical, metaphysical la la land again, making unsupported claims, false accusation, hysterical predictions...
Considering "western anti-American leftists and power-hungry Democratic partisans" have had almost nothing to do with the planning and implementation of the Iraqi occupation, how are we responsible for its failure?
What's YOUR plan b?
How are we going to successfully occupy Iran, Syria, maybe Saudi Arabia if we can't occupy Iraq?
How are you going to convince me and the rest of the godless blue america that your proposed crusade is not a fool's errand?
Posted by: Markus Rose at May 5, 2004 09:49 AMI'm not going to defend Richard McCarter's construction, because he pretty explicitly calls Liberals enemies on a par with Islamic Fascism. That's the kind of language from both sides that leads to Guernica. I see too much of that, and it frightens me, badly.
The people who don't take Islamofascism seriously also threaten me, and in less inflamatory moments maybe that's what Richard means. There are enemies out there who want me, mine, and my civilization dead. Those are enemies.
Then there are those with whom I more-or-less respectfully disagree.
Hell, I don't even count Ted Rall as an ememy. He's a damned fool and a loose cannon, but I don't think he wants me dead. (Or for that matter, I don't think he was happy Pat Tillman died. Pat just got to be a prop on his little "Punch And Judy" show. Tillman as the human didn't come into it.)
Posted by: Mark Poling at May 5, 2004 09:51 AMVery nicely put together, Michael. I crosslinked it at centerfield. I especially enjoyed the part where you imagine if Dave Duke and his ilk were big stars. Important point there.
I think it's crucial to reject the notion that this is simply about Christiandom vs. Islam. It's about fighting those that want to impose an orthodoxy that deifies the ideology and de-values individual liberties.
One of your regular visitors, TmjUtah, put it very succinctly one day and I saved it :
...a movement defined by brutal orthodoxy based on a rigidly defined code of virtue that implicitly rejects any concept of the individual as an agent of sovereignty or worth - beyond submission to the code.
Those are MY enemies.
Posted by: bk at May 5, 2004 10:00 AMVictims don't use military might to crush foes.
--funny, i haven't seen any foes crushed of late...warlords run afghanistan and we managed to crush a weak tinpot dictator in Iraq, but can't quite beat off the local population...
maybe time to try to occupy a new country?
Michael -- in your essay, you say "It makes little sense to declare war on Al Qaeda while ignoring Al Qaeda's Islamist allies in terror like Hezbollah and Hamas."
Hezbollah and Hamas are not at war with the United States. I agree that we should oppose these groups in our diplomatic efforts to facilitate a two state solution in Palestine, and we should also support Israel's efforts defend itself against these groups that are trying to eliminate the Jewish state. But unless they actually do declare war on the US, or declare that they would like to, what business do we have in going so far as to declare war on them, or in saying that they are as serious of a threat as Al Quaeda, which has actually attacked America?
Posted by: Markus Rose at May 5, 2004 10:07 AMcalibur: The Herd is very proud of you!
Posted by: Ex at May 5, 2004 10:09 AMMarkus: But unless they actually do declare war on the US, or declare that they would like to, what business do we have in going so far as to declare war on them, or in saying that they are as serious of a threat as Al Quaeda, which has actually attacked America?
Because they are different heads of the same hydra. Oh, and they are the enemies of our allies. Israel is our ally, you know. We will not abandon them as the French did.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 5, 2004 10:19 AMJoshua: Unfortunately, your site has a bunch of objectionable crap, so this is my first and last visit.
What's funny about this sort of commentary is that I have no idea if I'm supposedly too far to the left or too far to the right. But if you don't want to stick around I suppose it doesn't make any difference.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 5, 2004 10:35 AMHaaretz doesn't seem to agree with Michael about the French
Posted by: calibar at May 5, 2004 10:39 AM"Hezbollah and Hamas are not at war with the United States. "
What planet are you living on? Hamas is a part of the Muslim Brotherhood, an ideological ally of Al Qaeda. They are just merely focused on the destruction of Israel. I dare say one could call them Al Qaeda's Palestinian affiliate.
And Hizb'allah? Does Beruit ring any bells? Any at all?
Posted by: FH at May 5, 2004 10:41 AMYes, FH, I am familiar with Beirut. We put a bunch of Marines in the middle of a civil war, basically on the side of the Maronite Christians and Israelis who had recently massacared 800 Palestinians at Sabra and Shatila refugee camps, gave them totally inadequate security protection, and watched them get blown up by a suicide bomber driving a truck.
On the other hand, I have found out that American and Saudi officials have implicated Hezbollah in the 1996 truck bombing of Khobar Towers, a US military base in Saudi Arabia, which killed nineteen US servicemen. If true, I take back what I say about Hezbollah. That's war.
I support our ally, Israel, in its legitimate war against those who would wipe it out. I oppose our ally, Israel, in its illegitimate war to grab large chunks of the West Bank and Gaza in order to build a "greater israel."
see "The Four Wars of Israel/Palestine" by Michael Walzer, the best damn article I've ever read on the issue:
http://www.dissentmagazine.org/menutest/archives/2002/fa02/fourwars.htm
Once the Wall is finished the Isreal/Palistine issue will become less important - for Isreal. The Parasites will be shut out. But it is likely then that Hezbollah will have no choice but to actively join the global terror alliance against the US to keep any relevance.
They will spill our blood soon enough. Count on it.
Posted by: Ex at May 5, 2004 11:30 AMEx -- Hezbollah is now a major political party in Lebanon, where its goal is to build an Islamic state in that country. I don't see how teaming up with Al-Qaeda against the USA will help them do this.
On the wall, I'm just curious, which version of it do you support -- the one planned by that Likud Party wants that gives "the Parasites" 52% of the West Bank, or the one proposed by Israeli Defense Forces that gives them about 85%?
see How To Build A Fence in March/April 2004 Foreign Affairs.
http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20040301faessay83206/david-makovsky/how-to-build-a-fence.html
Posted by: Markus Rose at May 5, 2004 11:38 AMMarkus: I support our ally, Israel, in its legitimate war against those who would wipe it out. I oppose our ally, Israel, in its illegitimate war to grab large chunks of the West Bank and Gaza in order to build a "greater israel."
We are in basic agreement then. We only argue about the details. That's cool.
Most Israelis now want the settlements withdrawn, which is why I give them more slack than I used to.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at May 5, 2004 11:39 AMMarkus: Aiming to take over Lebannon (a snowballs chance btw) won't pay the bills, and not being fed by the hand they formally bit will really bite our their bottom line. It is a natural choice.
RE: the Wall...the details of square milage are none of my business. Real estate claims based on murder and extortion of innocents are not valid anyway.
Posted by: Ex at May 5, 2004 11:46 AMRE: the Wall...the details of square milage are none of my business.
Ex -- that's a weasel answer if I ever saw one.
The square milage and continguity of the land remaining outside the wall, which will become the the new de facto Palestinian state, is the crux of the matter. The real answer should be the product of negotiations among the two parties. The opinions of those on the outsiders like you and me should be based on notions of fairness and pragmatism. Walling the Palestinians off from the ever-growing number of settlers who have imported themselves into the West Bank on their arrogant little mission from God is an effort to unilaterally impose an answer, and a bad one at that.
Not weasely - prudent. Minor real estate claims are not a priority in the real world for most people. Don't be blinded into thinking they are because Parasitic savages spill blood over it. The Son of Sam killed because his dog told him too. Am I to care about his motivation?
The pragamtic answer is the Isreal owns all of it through defacto control through force of arms. They will toss the Parasites* a bone, get hassled by it by the Idiots (which would happen anyway), wall it off and forget about it. Its a smart play and we (the US) would be wise not to get in the way of it.
As for fairness - life isn't fair.
(*Parasites refers to the ruling clique of the invented nation of Palistine, not to the Arabs that happen to live there)
Posted by: Ex at May 5, 2004 12:43 PMI'd be all for a negotiated demarcation between Israel and the future Palestinian state, but that would require two parties negotiating in good faith. Right now the Palestinian side doesn't have a leadership that can be trusted to negotiate in good faith.
Blame Israel for taking too much land if you will, but blame Arafat for making a negotiated settlement impossible.
Posted by: Mark Poling at May 5, 2004 12:44 PMMark -- the people I blame the most are those who insist on only criticizing one of the sides in this dispute.
Posted by: Markus Rose at May 5, 2004 01:33 PMI blame Idiots living in fantasy worlds.
Posted by: Ex at May 5, 2004 02:01 PMMarkus,
We may disagree about just about everything, but you're good people. Hope you stick around here even if the going gets tough.
"I could never divide myself from any man upon the difference of an opinion, or be angry with his judgment for not agreeing with me in that, from which perhaps in a few days I should dissent myself."
- Sir Thomas Browne
Posted by: David Warner at May 5, 2004 04:33 PMGreat stuff, Michael. Though I probably, personally, would have gone out of my way in pointing out the fact that Paul Berman is a liberal (if only to shut up the STEPHEN types who are trying to pass this off as some kind of War against "Muslims and the Left"). The John-Birch-Michael-Savage rhetoric really gets under my skin.
I do want to criticize one thing, however. Don't worry, it's relatively small and insignificant to your overall point...
You said that during the Cold War the enemy was the Soviet Union and that during the Civil War the enemy was the Confederacy and that in the Revolutionary War is was the Crown. I think you're totally off, here. The enemies were never just the Soviets or the Redcoats or the Confederates, the enemies were in the IDEAS they represented: Stalinism; Imperialism; Slavery.
You hit on the fact that the enemy has always been the same, that the enemy has always been and will always be illiberality and totalitarianism. We opposed all these two-word entities not because they were merely Soviets or Redcoats or Confederates but because they were the practicing foes of liberal democracy.
During the Cold War, people were made to understand why we oppose the Soviet Union. Maybe it's a little off the point, but for the record, my biggest critique of the Bush Administration is that they've failed to even try to communicate the bigger picture this time around. And for all those ready to jump down my throat for saying that, go and listen to any one of a dozen or so speeches on the subject given by Tony Blair. Tony Blair makes the bigger case, time and time again. I'm still waiting on Bush.
It's been over a year and the vast majority of Americans still don't understand just what in the hell Iraq has to do with the War On Terror. They don't understand because nobody is really making the case. If another year passes and people still don't get it, if another year passes and still no one has bothered to consistently explain it to them, our mission in Iraq will fail: I can guarantee you that. As a people, we've got to be MORALLY committed to the task at hand. Jacksonian fearmongering alone won't cut it for the long haul.
We don't agree in regards to the basic premise of the conflict precisely because no one in America is out there making the Paul Berman case. By my calculations, Bush has given only one speech that hints at the bigger picture; the speech he gave before the National Endowment for Democracy when he called for a furthering of the "global democratic revolution". Kerry has, thus far, not even tried.
Besides protecting the American homeland, fighting the "global democratic revolution" ought to be the sole purpose of our foreign policy. Someone in high places needs to be reminding us of this, pronto.
Posted by: Grant McEntire at May 5, 2004 06:40 PMBesides protecting the American homeland, fighting the "global democratic revolution" ought to be the sole purpose of our foreign policy.
--They're a little shy about that PR angle since the recent overdue revelations of torture being practiced against Iraqis who were picked up for the crime of, well, actually no crime at all?
Posted by: calibar at May 5, 2004 06:53 PMYeah, Calibar, you're right. No ideal is ever perfectly executed and so those who voice support for them, unabashedly, are open to a whole hell of alot of criticism. But that's no excuse not to be idealistic. It's merely a good reason to be VERY forthcoming and honest about your mistakes.
Bush went on only two arab TV networks (one of which is US sponsored and carries ABSOLUTELY no legitimacy with its viewers) to give a half-assed round-about sort-of-apology to the Iraqi people and to tell them what "they must understand" (a sort of language I'm sure they appreciate right about now).
He should of said, "fuck the small stuff," gone on Al Jazeera, spoke clearly and honestly and with humility about what happened, and offered a deep and heartfelt apology for the torture and humiliation of the Iraqi people. He should of done it with tears in his eyes, real tears mind you as they are fully warranted in this situation, and ordered a full human rights inspection of EVERY American-military-led prison the world over. Yes, I said EVERY. All we would have to do is to publicly open our military-prison doors to groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch for a change. A move like this wouldn't do much to win over the terrorists, but it would go a long way in changing the hearts and minds of the non-violent-anti-American majority in the Middle East. It's mostly all this cowboy bravado shit that pisses me off most about Bush, personally.
Posted by: Grant McEntire at May 5, 2004 09:47 PMAhem: Offensive Cowboy Bravado, Rumsfeld-style...
FROM YESTERDAY'S PRESS CONFERENCE:
Q: Mr. Secretary, you mentioned the Navy looking into detention facilities in Guantanamo Bay and Charleston. Was that triggered by some allegations of abuse, or what are they looking at?
RUMSFELD: I'm not in the position to say whether there are other allegations of abuse. This is a pattern and a practice of terrorists, to allege abuse.
Case in point x100.
Posted by: Grant McEntire at May 5, 2004 09:57 PMGrant,
if only to shut up the STEPHEN types who are trying to pass this off as some kind of War against "Muslims and the Left"
Go forth and read Steven Den Beste about why this is a three-way conflict:
http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/05/Inelegance.shtml
You seem to have a love/hate relationship with Jacksonians. You love us because you know you need us, but you also hate us because of the violent consequences of the Jacksonian spirit.
You need to come to terms with the fact that this is indeed a three-way conflict between.
Posted by: HA at May 6, 2004 03:51 AMMarkus,
how are we responsible for its failure?
The leftists forfeited the deterrent effect that we re-established by over-throwing Saddam. In the aftermath of the invasion, all the other thugs in the neighborhood were wondering whose regime was next. Now they assume nobody is next which is why the are sponsoring the insurgencies in Najaf and Fallujah.
What's YOUR plan b?
I don't have a plan B. Your comrades are the ones who undermined plan A so the burden is on them to come up with a plan B.
How are we going to successfully occupy Iran, Syria, maybe Saudi Arabia if we can't occupy Iraq?
Who says we have to occupy any of those countries? We just need to overthrow the regimes. If they descend into anarchy, great. Let the hyenas feed on themselves instead of us.
How are you going to convince me and the rest of the godless blue america that your proposed crusade is not a fool's errand?
How are you going to convince me that Kerry's proposal to turn this over to the UN is not a fool's errand? Even godless blue America can't ignore the total failure of the UN after the Oil-for-Blood scandal.
Posted by: HA at May 6, 2004 04:03 AMbk,
I think it's crucial to reject the notion that this is simply about Christiandom vs. Islam.
I think it is crucial to ACCEPT the FACT that this a civilizational conflict between the Islamic world and what remains of Western Christendom.
This conflict has existed since Islam was invented. If you wish to assert that this conflict no longer exists, please point to something in the historical record or Islamic teachings that shows where it ended. Good luck, because the conflict never ended. We just forgot about it because their side was so weak. They never gave up the goal, they just didn't have them means to achieve it.
Our enemies certainly don't reject the notion of this conflict. They openly state it:
http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/vidino200405040834.asp
Their goal is the destruction of Western civilization. They are using colonization, breeding and terrorism to achieve their goal. This is the reality. Accept it.
Posted by: HA at May 6, 2004 04:19 AMHA,
We have seen in our own country that different religious opinions can co-exist fairly peacefully in a modern democracy that provides the separation of church and state that allows this sort of thriving(not to mention opportunity, justice, predictability). As Michael points out, David Duke's psychotic imagery gains little purchase in America. And this is because he doesn't have a giant willing audience of the angry, oppressed, and impoverished who are willing to listen to anyone with a plausible explanation of why their world is all FUBAR.
In my view, this is a battle to fix the FUBAR part of the middle east, which at base is a lack of opportunity, justice, and predictability. This is wthat causes the anger that makes an audience willing to listen to an extremist charismatic ideologue. I think the FUBAR is caused by the lack of opportunity etc, maybe you think it's caused by Islam?
Go ahead and think that Islam is the problem if you want. I am sure you are convinced of this, and I'm not saying anything here in an effort to change your mind, since I don't believe it CAN be changed.
I don't think yours is a very enlightened view, but you're as entitled to think I am wrong as I am entitled to think you are wrong.
The pattern I see over and over is that extremist charismatic cultish leaders always find their most sympathetic audience among the angry lost downtrodden, and the particular ideology is just along for the ride. It's not a source, it's just a vehicle. The more angry the audience, the more lost the audience, the more downtrodden the audience, the more sympathetic the audience, the better it is as a vehicle, regardless of its specific content. As long as it provides hope and promise, the downtrodden will board that train.
I encourage you to study the group dynamics at play in a variety of psycho cults led by charismatic leaders so you can see these patterns over and over in cases large and small. If David Duke, or David Koresh, or Jim Jones could be placed in the middle east right now, they'd recognize paradise in the vastness of the willing audience for anyone who could explain how their FUBAR world was someone else's fault, how to fix it, and how to get back at those responsible.
Posted by: bk at May 6, 2004 07:04 AMGrant:
RUMSFELD: I'm not in the position to say whether there are other allegations of abuse. This is a pattern and a practice of terrorists, to allege abuse.
Which of course means there are other allegations.
On the other hand, what's Rumsfeld to do here? Release the allegations, no matter what stage the investigation is in? What about the rights of the accused? The military has different standards on that than our civil society, but putting that aside, we as participants in our society should want to give the accused the benefit of the doubt until all evidence is in. Anybody accused of prisoner abuse right now is ruined for years, scarred for life, and just generally hosed no matter what the truth of the allegations. You want that for some potentially innocent schmuck doing a really shitty job?
I don't blame the press for shark-in-the-water behavior. It's what they do, and biases notwithstanding it's good for our society. I just believe in minimizing (true) collateral damage. Is the Pentagon too secretive? You bet. Is a certain secretiveness justified? You bet.
Posted by: Mark Poling at May 6, 2004 07:45 AMbk,
So you are saying that Islam is a cult on the par with Jones,Koresh and Duke?
Posted by: J.R. at May 6, 2004 07:58 AM"I don't think yours is a very enlightened view, but you're as entitled to think I am wrong as I am entitled to think you are wrong."
That's the thing, Islam hasn't had it's enlightenment (yet?). Until it does, it's not terribly enlightened to pretend that it has.
Even within the West itself, there are powerful currents that are questioning the Enlightenment itself for various reasons (I would claim mostly irreasons).
The Enlightenment is taking fire from more than one direction - perhaps those of us who value it would do well to join together in defending it.
Posted by: David Warner at May 6, 2004 08:44 AMJR,
No, I'm not saying that at all. They don't have to be "on par" for a comparison to be able to provide insight, I don't think.
I'm saying that if you study the dynamics of cults you'll notice patterns similar to what's going on with extreme fundamentalist Islam.
To people who feel like they have little or nothing to lose, jihad might sound like an opportunity. To people will full bellies, a growing and secure family, a roof over their heads, and a tangible expectation of a brighter future in THIS world, jihad has less luster.
Posted by: bk at May 6, 2004 08:55 AMAll we would have to do is to publicly open our military-prison doors to groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch for a change.
--well, we do criticise our official 'enemies' for not doing that right? why would it hurt us to open our doors to AI or HRW, it'd sure have clear payoff in terms of credibility, unless we had something to hide?
Posted by: calibar at May 6, 2004 09:01 AMi'm agreeing with you in that post.
Posted by: calibar at May 6, 2004 09:03 AMHA...
Okay, my beef with the Jacksonians is not that you're too hawkish in moments like these, it's that you guys seem to love playing the role of "sleeping giant" all too well.
In times of War you're hawkish interventionists out for blood. I've got no problem, there. But in times of peace, the Jacksonian spirit is one of isolationism. That's where I get pissed off because I hate isolationism above all things.
You're for spreading the "global democratic revolution" (as Bush puts it) as a means to an end and not just because it's the right thing to do. As a Wilsonian, I believe furthering the global democratic revolution ought to be a full-time thing...even in times of peace...just because. There was an episode of The West Wing in which President Bartlett spoke about this sort of thing. He called it "liberalism with a grenade launcher". I'm all for that sort of thing, not only because it's good for America, but because it's the right thing to do.
The love/hate has to do with the fact that we're currently very much on the same page, you and I. That's the love, I suppose. The hate is that I know it won't last forever.
Posted by: Grant McEntire at May 6, 2004 11:06 AMGrant,
You know, there was a time when Wilsonians knew how to deal with anti-war socialists:
Once the United States entered the war, Debs was arrested for violating the Espionage Act after making what the district attorney of Canton, Ohio called an anti-war speech in 1918. Debs in fact only mentioned the war once, but under this repressive new law, was sentenced to ten years in a federal penitentiary. Nominated for a fifth time as the Socialist Party's presidential candidate in 1920, Debs campaigned from his jail cell and garnered over a million votes. Despite repeated pleas from Debs' supporters, President Wilson refused to release Debs from prison. President Harding finally ordered him set free on Christmas Day 1921.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/wilson/peopleevents/p_debs.html
Isn't it somewhat ironic that the original Wilsonian was throwing socialists in jail to be freed by the Jacksonian who kept America out of the League of Nations? Maybe the Wilsonian spirit isn't as idealistic as you would believe, nor the Jackson spirit so sleepy and insular.
Speaking of Harding, his inaugural address is worth a read, my Wilsonian friend:
My Countrymen:
WHEN one surveys the world about him after the great storm, noting the marks of destruction and yet rejoicing in the ruggedness of the things which withstood it, if he is an American he breathes the clarified atmosphere with a strange mingling of regret and new hope. We have seen a world passion spend its fury, but we contemplate our Republic unshaken, and hold our civilization secure. Liberty—liberty within the law—and civilization are inseparable, and though both were threatened we find them now secure; and there comes to Americans the profound assurance that our representative government is the highest expression and surest guaranty of both. 1
Standing in this presence, mindful of the solemnity of this occasion, feeling the emotions which no one may know until he senses the great weight of responsibility for himself, I must utter my belief in the divine inspiration of the founding fathers. Surely there must have been God's intent in the making of this new-world Republic. Ours is an organic law which had but one ambiguity, and we saw that effaced in a baptism of sacrifice and blood, with union maintained, the Nation supreme, and its concord inspiring. We have seen the world rivet its hopeful gaze on the great truths on which the founders wrought. We have seen civil, human, and religious liberty verified and glorified. In the beginning the Old World scoffed at our experiment; today our foundations of political and social belief stand unshaken, a precious inheritance to ourselves, an inspiring example of freedom and civilization to all mankind. Let us express renewed and strengthened devotion, in grateful reverence for the immortal beginning, and utter our confidence in the supreme fulfillment. 2
The recorded progress of our Republic, materially and spiritually, in itself proves the wisdom of the inherited policy of noninvolvement in Old World affairs. Confident of our ability to work out our own destiny, and jealously guarding our right to do so, we seek no part in directing the destinies of the Old World. We do not mean to be entangled. We will accept no responsibility except as our own conscience and judgment, in each instance, may determine. 3
Our eyes never will be blind to a developing menace, our ears never deaf to the call of civilization. We recognize the new order in the world, with the closer contacts which progress has wrought. We sense the call of the human heart for fellowship, fraternity, and cooperation. We crave friendship and harbor no hate. But America, our America, the America builded on the foundation laid by the inspired fathers, can be a party to no permanent military alliance. It can enter into no political commitments, nor assume any economic obligations which will subject our decisions to any other than our own authority. 4
I am sure our own people will not misunderstand, nor will the world misconstrue. We have no thought to impede the paths to closer relationship. We wish to promote understanding. We want to do our part in making offensive warfare so hateful that Governments and peoples who resort to it must prove the righteousness of their cause or stand as outlaws before the bar of civilization. 5
We are ready to associate ourselves with the nations of the world, great and small, for conference, for counsel; to seek the expressed views of world opinion; to recommend a way to approximate disarmament and relieve the crushing burdens of military and naval establishments. We elect to participate in suggesting plans for mediation, conciliation, and arbitration, and would gladly join in that expressed conscience of progress, which seeks to clarify and write the laws of international relationship, and establish a world court for the disposition of such justiciable questions as nations are agreed to submit thereto. In expressing aspirations, in seeking practical plans, in translating humanity's new concept of righteousness and justice and its hatred of war into recommended action we are ready most heartily to unite, but every commitment must be made in the exercise of our national sovereignty. Since freedom impelled, and independence inspired, and nationality exalted, a world supergovernment is contrary to everything we cherish and can have no sanction by our Republic. This is not selfishness, it is sanctity. It is not aloofness, it is security. It is not suspicion of others, it is patriotic adherence to the things which made us what we are.
http://www.bartleby.com/124/pres46.html
There is wisdom in his address that is as relevant today as it was 83 years ago.
Posted by: HA at May 6, 2004 07:10 PMbk,
If David Duke, or David Koresh, or Jim Jones
Our enemies are in posession of power ideology and that you trivialize by making comparisons to racists and cultists:
http://members.cox.net/slsturgi3/PhilosopherOfIslamicTerror.htm
I don't think yours is a very enlightened view
Then enlighten me. Show me something from the historical record that Islamic world has changed from within. Show me something like the Reformation or the Enlightenment within Islam. Show me that they have changed since the were driven out of Europe. Show me because everything I've seen fits my view.
Don't give me hollow platitudes about the downtrodden. That won't cut it. They don't wage jihad because they are downtrodden, but out of profound belief in a powerful ideology.
Posted by: HA at May 6, 2004 07:42 PMDavid,
The Enlightenment is taking fire from more than one direction - perhaps those of us who value it would do well to join together in defending it.
I think that if Western Civilization manages to survive the next 50-100 years, historians and philosophers will look back on our period and see it as the age of Dis-Enlightenment. The beginning of this age will be marked by the publication of the Communist Manifesto in 1848. In the years since, we have managed to unlearn much of what we learned through 2500 years of Western Civilization.
The end of the Dis-Enlightenment is yet to be written.
Posted by: HA at May 6, 2004 07:53 PMbk,
Here is some enlightenment for you:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/06/opinion/06NOMA.html?ex=1399176000&en=0bb2f29fbfe48519&ei=5007&partner=USERLAND
And here is some more:
http://iht.com/bin/print.php?file=518436.html
This is all to be expected considering how downtrodden the Muslims in West Virginia and Michigan are.
Posted by: HA at May 7, 2004 04:08 AMHA
I'm not trying to convince you. Your opinions are founded on faith, and THEN bolstered by reason, and as such the foundation is not accessible to reason. Since you start from faith, you are destined in this matter to continue to look only for reasons why islam is itself the enemy. And I have no doubt that you will keep finding them. Good luck with that.
Feel free to dismiss my statements about the downtrodden as platitudes. Platitudes are not necessarily untrue. Those with little reason for hope make a receptive audience for extremists of all stripes. If they are fortunate enough through god's grace to find more tangible hope, the hateful extremism loses its savor. It's in front of your eyes to see, deny it or dismiss it if you will. I think you probably HAVE to deny or dismiss, otherwise that foudation has to get adjusted. No one likes doing that.
I make no claims about the exact nature of islamic ideology, which both varies currently within and without the middle east, and may yet evolve more and vary more widely in the future. I believe there is more reason for hope in fostering its evolution than in violently opposing all of its adherents. Clearly your mileage varies.
Posted by: HA at May 7, 2004 06:57 AMthat's weird, how did my post above get HA's handle?
HA, I make no claims that the patterns I suggest are universal or without exception. Only that they are there to see and are worth consideration. You are right to point out that muslim extremism may persist in Muslims that are not downtrodden. It's a relevant counterexample, but it doesn't really prove or disprove anything by itself.
If we really wanted to know whether we could expect economic opportunity to make Muslims less inclined to extremism, we'd need to track all or many of them over time. If 1000 randomly chosen downtrodden muslims came to the US, we'd want to find out how opportunity and freedom affected ALL of them. In that context, it would certainly be fair to note that in some, extremism persisted. But it wouldn't make sense to focus only on those muslims and ignore the ones who adopted a more enlightened live-and let live framing of islam, or even found that Islam withered in importance. Don't some muslims become much more secular, as happens in MANY generations of immigrants and in many nations that become prosperous? Regardless of the original brand of the fundamentalist religious view? This latter is always viewed as a negative by the religious conservatives of the brand that loses market share, but it doesn't trouble me much.
So like I said, if you keep looking for instances that confirm your already hardened view that islams are all fanatics who in the end hate us and thus must be opposed, you're not going to have any trouble doing so. In fact it looks like you just trotted out and did it for me, practically on command. Good boy! Here's a jeez-it wafer treat.
For me, the jury is still out. You are sure they are immune. I believe they are only resistant. It's a huge difference.
Posted by: bk at May 7, 2004 08:59 AMHA --
Markus:how are we responsible for its failure?
HA: The leftists forfeited the deterrent effect that we re-established by over-throwing Saddam... Now they assume nobody is next which is why the are sponsoring the insurgencies in Najaf and Fallujah.
The reason it seems "nobody is next" right now is that the Iraq project is a fiasco and we don't have the resources and manpower to take over any other nation until it is fixed. That's Rumsfeld's fault, not the fault of the Left.
Markus: What's YOUR plan b?
HA: I don't have a plan B. Your comrades are the ones who undermined plan A so the burden is on them to come up with a plan B.
OK. More troops, more public works and public welfare for unemployed Iraqis, less imperial arrogance, less torture. Less contempt for Iraqi people and their values and culture, as exemplified by your comments on "Islam." With non-Iraqi front in the "war on terror", more interest in non-state sponsored terrorism, more interest in reducing world dependency on Saudi oil.
Markus: How are we going to successfully occupy Iran, Syria, maybe Saudi Arabia if we can't occupy Iraq?
HA: Who says we have to occupy any of those countries? We just need to overthrow the regimes. If they descend into anarchy, great. Let the hyenas feed on themselves instead of us.
Judging from your comments on anarchy, you should be pleased at what is happening in Iraq. Perhaps you should support Dennis Kucinich's call to pull out of Iraq (rejected by 99% of Democratic primary voters, by the way), which would surely produce anarchy.
Markus: How are you going to convince me and the rest of the godless blue america that your proposed crusade is not a fool's errand?
HA: How are you going to convince me that Kerry's proposal to turn this over to the UN is not a fool's errand? Even godless blue America can't ignore the total failure of the UN after the Oil-for-Blood scandal.
from May 6 NY Times editorial "Another Vision for Iraq":
"To this end, while endorsing Mr. Brahimi's efforts to put together a transitional Iraqi government, Mr. Kerry also proposes designating an international high commissioner for Iraq whose office would be outside the barely functional, patronage-driven U.N. personnel system. That would permit the recruitment of a capable staff and create some safeguards against the kind of wholesale corruption that is alleged to have vitiated the U.N.'s oil-for-food program in Iraq."
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/06/opinion/06THU1.html?n=Top%2fOpinion%2fEditorials%20and%20Op%2dEd%2fEditorials
We won't convince you that Kerry and his foreign policy team will be more competent and reasonable. But with Bush's current approval rating at 49%, I'm hopeful that lame as he is as a candidate, Kerry may be able to convince a plurality of voters, particularly the 52% of them who voted for Gore or Nader in 2000, that he is the real grown-up in the race this time.
Posted by: Markus Rose at May 7, 2004 11:10 AMHA -- "I think it is crucial to ACCEPT the FACT that this a civilizational conflict between the Islamic world and what remains of Western Christendom."
As Charles Krauthammer points out in his insightful op-ed in todays Washington Post, "Abu Ghraib as Symbol", much of the fear and anger that the fundamentalist Islamic world has toward the West has to do with the threat that Western freedom, with its emerging doctrine of equal rights for women, poses to the traditional role over women as "illiterate economic and sexual slaves." These liberating values come from the Enlightenment, and were originally put forward by by anti-Christians like Rousseau and John Stuart Mill. They did not grow out of "Western Christendom", which over the past two thousand years has done only a slightly better job than Islam in extending basic human rights to women.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A7009-2004May6.html
Posted by: Markus Rose at May 7, 2004 12:09 PMBrilliant!
Islamic totalitarianism aims to conquer everything in its path.
Conquering the oil rich states (the totalitarians already rule Iran) is first in priority, since control of middle eastern oil could cripple the infidel west.
After bringing the west to its knees by controlling the flow of oil, colonizing and outbreeding the west will be the easy part.
Once muslims are in the majority in Europe, we will have one person, one vote, one time.
Excellent. We're not asking why they hate us. We already know because they told us - because we're not like them. And we are attacking the root causes.
Posted by: Doug Purdie at May 7, 2004 01:05 PMMarkus,
OK. More troops, more public works and public welfare for unemployed Iraqis, less imperial arrogance, less torture. Less contempt for Iraqi people and their values and culture, as exemplified by your comments on "Islam." With non-Iraqi front in the "war on terror", more interest in non-state sponsored terrorism, more interest in reducing world dependency on Saudi oil.
What does it mean to have "more interest" in non-state-sponsord terrorism? And what is Kerry going to do about state-sponsored terrorism which is the far greater problem? Even non-state terrorists need a haven to be effective. Al Qaeda is a continuing threat today because they were able to churn out thousands of trained terrorists under the protection of the Taliban.
Kerry's plan for Iraq is to take it out of American hands. This can only end in failure. And he has NO plan for outside Iraq beyond appeasement. He will fail with disasterous consequences given the opportunity.
Mr. Kerry also proposes designating an international high commissioner for Iraq
This is a joke right? An "international high commissioner?" What the fuck is that? It sounds like a Chomsky wet dream. Anything "international" will at best be a compromise between America's interests and our enemies interests. At worst it will be an agency for our enemies like the UN is. I suppose it is a sign of progress that an editorial board as ignorant and disfunctional as the NY Times is progressing in the grieving process over the failure of their beloved UN. The problem is they went straight from denial to bargaining, skipping over anger. They - and you - have much more grieving to do before acceptance.
http://www.york-united-kingdom.co.uk/funerals/grief/
From the editorial you linked:
This feature of the Kerry proposal draws on the pattern of international oversight in Bosnia.
It doesn't add to anyone's credibility to cite the Balkans as an international success story. First, the international community stood by and did nothing until America stepped in and put an end to the slaughter. The UN disarmed the Bosnian Muslims and offered security, only to step aside and let them be slaughtered when the Serbs showed up. Looking at Kosovo in particular, we did it from 15,000 feet which left the Serbs in control of the ground to slaughter thousands. And now, all under international control, Bosnia and Kosovo have become the hub of the international sex-slave trade, Americans are being gunned down by Hamas linked Jordanians, and Serbs are victims of ethnic cleansing in Kosovo. And as soon as the international community tires of the Balkans - which it inevitably will - the conflict will resume where it left off.
Perhaps you should support Dennis Kucinich's call to pull out of Iraq (rejected by 99% of Democratic primary voters, by the way), which would surely produce anarchy.
No, we need one model for when the rest of the Middle East exhausts its blood lust. I think it is better that they exaust their blood lust on each other rather than us. Also, we owe a debt to the Iraqi Shia for betraying them in 1991. Of course the debt is not endless and at some point the Shia have to seize the opportunity we've given them. And Kurds are certainly worthy of protection. We owe nothing to anyone else.
We won't convince you that Kerry and his foreign policy team will be more competent and reasonable.
No you won't. Kerry will be an even greater disaster than Carter and Clinton who are the two greatest failures in foreign policy in the history of the republic. All Kerry is offering is to pursue with greater intensity the foreign policies that allowed the world to spiral out of control in the first place.
I'm hopeful that lame as he is as a candidate, Kerry may be able to convince a plurality of voters, particularly the 52% of them who voted for Gore or Nader in 2000, that he is the real grown-up in the race this time.
Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it. A Kerry presidency could lead to a schism in the Democratic party. He can't satisfy both wings of the party. The "pragmatic" socialists on the left wing could take flight to their natural home with the Greens if Kerry governs from the right, and the confused moderates on the right could take flight to the Republicans if Kerry governs from the left. It only takes the flight of a few percentage points from either wing for the Republicans to become the dominant party for a generation.
Posted by: HA at May 8, 2004 04:17 AMMarkus,
In my haste, I neglected to mention LBJ as a foreign policy failure. Silly me.
But to some extent, I can forgive LBJ. We know a lot more today than we did in the context of his times. Carter and Clinton cannot be forgiven for their appeasement policies.
Posted by: HA at May 8, 2004 04:25 AMMarkus,
These liberating values come from the Enlightenment
And where did the Enlightenment values come from? They didn't appear out of thin air. Like all successful value systems they are derivative of something that came before it, tempered by hard-learned lessons. The Enlightenment was made possible by Protestant Christianity. And Protestent Christianity is in turn derivative of a number of influences including Catholicism, Judaism and Greek philosophy.
Of course, the Enlightenment made the rise of Western anti-Christians possible. This led to Marx, Hitler and Stalin.
It is terribly ironic that the Reformation and Enlightenment contained the seeds for their own destruction in the anti-Christian, dis-Enlightened world we live in.
Posted by: HA at May 8, 2004 04:43 AMbk,
Your opinions are founded on faith, and THEN bolstered by reason
I'm an atheist. Reason requires recognition of the role faith plays in society. A healthy society has to share a common faith in something. It need not be religious faith, but religious faith has traditionaly been the domimant faith.
The problem in the West is that Christian faith has been discarded without a conclusive successor. The competing candidates are Enlightenment liberalism manifested in America and Marxist anti-liberal socialism manifested in the EU. And the anti-liberal Islamic world has taken advantage of this conflict to assert their own ideology. It is no surpise that the anti-liberal socialists have allied with the anti-liberal Islamists. They are natural allies.
Posted by: HA at May 8, 2004 04:55 AMMarkus,
These liberating values come from the Enlightenment, and were originally put forward by by anti-Christians like Rousseau.
One more thing. The Enlightenment was well under-way long before Rousseau. His contribution was to provide the blue-print for the French revolution which ultimately begat Marx. Rousseau didn't give us liberating values. He gave us anti-liberating values. He is better thought of as the bastard step-child of the Enlightment who betrayed it.
Posted by: HA at May 8, 2004 05:10 AMGrant,
Wilsonianism is dead - killed by Democrats, not isolationist Jacksonians:
Believe me, we've got even bigger problems than whether Rumsfeld keeps his job. We've got the problem of defining America's role in the world from here on out, because we are certainly not going to put ourselves through another year like this anytime soon. No matter how Iraq turns out, no president in the near future is going to want to send American troops into any global hot spot. This experience has been too searing.
Unfortunately, states will still fail, and world-threatening chaos will still ensue. Tyrants will still aid terrorists. Genocide will still occur. What are we going to do then? Who is going to tackle the future Milosevics, the future Talibans? If you were one of those people who thought the world was dangerous with an overreaching hyperpower, wait until you get a load of the age of the global power vacuum.
In this climate of self-doubt, the "realists" of right and left are bound to re-emerge. They're going to dwell on the limits of our power. They'll advise us to learn to tolerate the existence of terrorist groups, since we don't really have the means to take them on. They're going to tell us to lower our sights, to accept autocratic stability, since democratic revolution is too messy and utopian.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/08/opinion/08BROO.html
Posted by: HA at May 9, 2004 04:42 AMHA
marxist anti-liberal socialism
Is that what you get when you try to cram all the things you don't like into one bag?
It is no surpise that the anti-liberal socialists have allied with the anti-liberal Islamists. They are natural allies.
Keep cramming. We'll make more bag. I'm sure you've got all your terms defined so that all forms of socialism must necessarily be viewed as illiberal.
Congratulations. Good luck with that crusade of Christianity aginst Islam thing too. Sounds like a real barrel full of laughs, especially for an atheist.
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