I doubt this news will put to bed the idea that fighting terrorism and dictatorships only creates more terrorism. But it should.

Some questions:

1. Who has ever argued that "fighting terrorism ... only creates more terrorists"?

2. How does this measure disprove that "fighting dictatorships" (by which I assume you mean invading Iraq) has not lead and will not lead to further acts of terrorism?

2a. If there had been 10 more terrorist incidents, the rate would have been higher than 2003. If, say, one of the west African wars had flared up, or the IRA or ETA had gone on a tear, would this have proved that attacking Iraq DID lead result in additional terrorism?

2b. Using a list that excludes terrorist acts within Iraq makes it a problematic measure on which to base a conlusion of whether the invasion of Iraq has resulted in additional terror attacks. Discuss.

It's heartening, Michael (and a great rebuttal to the jackases who bitch about not "feeling" safer after the invasion of Iraq), but this war isn't against a terror organization, nor against a religion.

It's against an IDEOLOGY of Islamic supremacism. Explain here in this essay by Daniel Pipes.

http://www.danielpipes.org/article/1759

Paul Berman also addresses similar assessments of what faces the war on the west in Terror and Liberalism.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0393057755/qid=1083575039/sr=8-1/ref=pd_ka_1/104-9777638-7330340?v=glance&s=books&n=507846

Mork

I think you're right. Ignoring terrorist incidents within Iraq makes no sense to me. In any case, raw numbers mean very little. It's an essential confusion of quantity vs quality.

Because obviously the hundreds of civilian deaths in Madrid, Istanbul and Casablanca, must be much more heavily weighted than an instance of someone being arrested before his carbomb ever goes off.

I do agree with Pipes that the ideological component of the struggle -- much neglected to this point in American discourse -- is huge and in practice almost unopposed. Multicultural dictates of tolerance and fear of being called or branded "racist" has resulted in sharia law, for instance, being discussed only in muffled tones.

Even though sharia now has a foothold in Canada. The next step will be stores which will not sell alcohol or ham (as has already happened in some neighborhoods in France).

Mikos - I'm not sure I understand what the threat is that you're concerned about. Frankly, people voluntarily agreeing to settle their disputes according to Sharia law doesn't bother me at all. Similarly, I'm fine with stores that refuse to sell alcohol or ham, whether they do so in accordance with halal or kosher principles. Obviously, I would object strenuously to any of these things being government-mandated, but what's the risk of that?

Mork, the problem is when sharia courts are established... "voluntary" becomes subject to pressure from the community. As in: "Why would a good Muslim ever go to an infidel court?" And sharia law, just to take the most glaring example, treats women like dirt.

And in France there have been grocery stores which have functioned as community stores, where local residents buy wine and ham and pork... and because of PRESSURE from Muslim fundamentalists living nearby, the shopkeeper has changed his policy, so that non-Muslims now can no longer buy wine at a store within walking distance where they had shopped all their life.

I spent time in Morocco in the 1980s, and my wife is French, her family is in Marseille, and generally speaking I've liked nearly every Muslim I've spent time with (particularly in Tangier). But the ones animated by fundamentalism are coming from a very different place. They're not even necessarily religious, but they take pleasure in being frightening by association, as their rap songs turn "juif" around to "fuij" and talk about the glory of jihad.

On another level, such things as the prosecution of the popular novelist Michel Houellebecq for alleged "racism" (journalist Orianna Fallacci as well) because he -- as an atheist, said in an interview that Islam is the "stupidest" of the big religions... well, this creates an atmosphere of intimidation (no one has forgotten about the fatwa on Salman Rushdie) in which the constant special pleading for Islam is backed up by the credible threat of violence.

And then there are the gang-rapes, and "honor" murders and rapes -- Western society as we've known it is gravely menaced by an entire constellation most of my normal political allies wish to ignore.

Or they think it can be reduced to a partisan political issue. Feminists see a critique of Islam as allying them with the Republicans. They will march for abortion rights but few will protest the near-daily abominations done to women all over the world under Islam unreformed.

I think what is going on is much bigger than many want to realize, and it's not going to stop.

What Miklos said.

The issue with the Sharia law in Canada is that Muslims will demand that it apply to their interactions with non-muslims. This is basically what has happened in Nigeria.

That is the danger. So you can sit there and start measureing yourself for your burkha, or you can can do something about it.

AND, I just stumbled across this:

http://www.ds-osac.org/view.cfm?KEY=7E4251454656&type=2B170C1E0A3A0F162820

hoo boy, that's toleration, that is.

I agree that we are winning against al Qaeda. I think the Bush Administration deserves a lot of credit, BUT....

...worldwide terrorism includes many acts not related to al Qaeda. A large number of past terrorist attacks were in Latin America. The number of such attacks dropped considerably for reasons unrelated to our efforts against al Qaeda.

In short, these statistics are not a sufficient basis to evaluate the success of our war against al Qaeda.

Ah, ignoring inconvenient information. A sad thing to see here.

did not include most of the attacks in Iraq

[...]

The report counted 82 anti-U.S. attacks around the world in 2003, up from 77 in 2002. Thirty-five American citizens died in terrorist attacks last year.

2003 death toll: 307

March 2004, Madrid final death toll: over 200

Ah, the joys of logic.

Attacks occur against Western interests and personel. They are defined as terrorism.

The West declares War.

In this context, attacks are not defined as terrorism.

Therefore terrorism has declined.

Thank you Mr. Orwell.

Interesting exchange with reporters as to Ambassador Black's understanding of the reason for the reduction.

QUESTION: Okay. The second question. Simply stated, why do you think there was the small reduction in the number of terrorist attacks last year and the dramatic reduction in the number of people who died? Why?

AMBASSADOR BLACK: It is a direct result of the enhanced relationships among the community of nations that are addressing this common scourge. The fact of the matter is that the world is a far better place now in terms of how we interact with each other. Communication is enhanced. The law enforcement agencies of the respective participant countries, as well as the security services, as well as most recently the financial departments of these countries, are communicating more efficiently and effectively. There is increased transparency.

Hmmm. No mention of Iraq, no mention of removing dictators. Just that ole' appeasement stuff.

http://tinyurl.com/2gmyc

Another interesting exchange from that briefing I linked above:

QUESTION: Looking at your list, this being the lowest number of terrorist attacks since 1969, what happens to that number if you do include the attacks on military targets in Iraq, which, after all, the President routinely calls terrorist attacks? I know they're not, for the definition's report, terrorist attacks, but they're often called by senior officials, including the President, terrorist attacks. What happens to the numbers if you include them?

And also, you talk about al-Qaida having their operations seriously, their capabilities seriously downgraded. But by my account in here, and tell me if I'm wrong, there were about a dozen attacks that are either al-Qaida or seemingly al-Qaida, which seems to me a big increase from the previous year.

So do we have an increase in the number of attacks from al-Qaida, or supposedly al-Qaida, despite the fact that it's -- they're downgraded?

AMBASSADOR BLACK: Yeah. I think it's important to stick -- I do counterterrorism, so I kind of stick with the basics of that.

Now that was a nice straight answer.

Leaving Iraq out of the count strikes me as disingenuous as well. It’s hard to see the kidnappings in particular as anything other than pure terrorism. Still, parsing terrorism from legitimate military action could keep military lawyers and oppositional chatterbots busy for decades to come, so there may be good reason just to chuck the Iraq data as being somewhere between useless and actively misleading.

Instead of Fun With Numbers, consider this: the widely predicted explosion of the Dreaded Arab Street against the interests of the West hasn't happened. (Mork, who are you kidding with that "Who has ever argued that 'fighting terrorism ... only creates more terrorists'?" question? The whole hydra meme – cut off one head, and two replace it – has been an article of faith for the antiwar crowd.) The War of Civilizations has been confined to a series of limited engagements, predominantly in a limited area. (Which is absolutely counter to the stated goals of Al Quada and it’s various fellow travelers.) I’m not discounting Madrid. I think other Madrids, and worse, are inevitable. (I'm particularly concerned about living in NYC during the weeks leading up to the election.) It's just that if you believe it's a war – and I do – then it's hard to imagine that there won't be losses.

Isolationists need to get over the idea that this is a war to make us safe. It's a war to make us safer. And I agree with Michael; I think we’re winning.

The whole "not including most of the attacks in Iraq" is a bit of the red herring. I'd agree that the attacks by Iraqi insurgents against American troops are NOT terrorism, simply because they're made against the military. Terrorism is defined as "...premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience." Therefore, the majority of roadside bombings, etc, are NOT terrorist attacks, and those using those tactics are not terrorists.

I believe that most of the actual terrorist bombings we've seen in Iraq recently against non-noncombatant are this year, so expect 2004's numbers to shoot way up.

So this time next year, we may expect a similar post from Michael explaining that the war against terror is failing because of the higher casualty count, right?

"The report praised Saudi Arabia's cooperation with the United States in combating terrorism after bombings in the country last May and November.

The kingdom was cited by Black in the report as "an excellent example of a nation increasingly focusing its political will to fight terrorism," including arresting terrorists, cutting funding and strengthening legislation."

"And I agree with Michael; I think we’re winning."

Just so long as no one goes ahead and declares victory just yet then I'd agree with that. Progress is slow, violent and going in fits and starts, but we haven't started moving backwards yet.

"we haven't started moving backwards yet."

I think the world seeing the photos of what went down at the Abu Ghraib prison was an eeensie-teensie step backwards, sam. (I haven't watched Fox News recently -- perhaps most people reading this don't know what I'm talking about.)

I think the Likud vote this past weekend, along with Sharon's announcement that he would "revise" his proposal to pull out of Gaza, was also a step backward.

Yup, let's not kid ourselves that there's an objective, reliable, and quantifiable measure of terrorism, at least not one objective and quantifiable enough that we'd claim significance for a small fluctuation.

I'm loath to say "let's not try to count or measure these things," and I'm not saying that. But if you want to try to measure you have to look at the various flaws and eschew claiming significance for a 5 or 10 percent drop, especially when you count things differently from year to year. Let's face it, only a difference of something like an order of magnitude would be the kind of change that would suggest obvious progress or regress.

If the numbers of dead from politically motivated attacks on non combatants went from thousands to hundreds and the trend then endured over a 5 or 10 year period, that might be something. So I'm not willing to blow the trumpets over a decline of 8.

But I do think it's worthwhile to note such counts anyways, because our post-9/11 heightened sensitivity leaves us inclined to go chicken little over terrorist attacks that barely made many people's radar screens prior to 9/11. So it is important that we all have some context to what was going on pre-9/11. It at least gives us a grounding for a discussion. If we look at a graph of annual numbers, we might be able to look back in 2010 and view 2001 as an aberration instead of an uptick to a new sustained level of increased activity.

But the non-counting of "combatants" is definitely problematic, that's very hard to deny. Put such numbers in a different column of the table, but make sure they're in the table.

Alright, I admit that those soldiers torturing Iraqi prisoners is a major problem. Not just for PR but for questions it raises about the level of discipline among the troops. But, if we deal with it properly, ensuring that the guilty parties are punished and make sure it doesn't happen again we might be able to pull it out of the fire yet.

Also, Sharon's decision and the Likud vote are more examples of standing still, rather than moving backwards.

But, if we deal with it properly, ensuring that the guilty parties are punished and make sure it doesn't happen again we might be able to pull it out of the fire yet.

--first ya just have to get Myers and Rumsfeld to bother reading the internal report that Hersh exposed.
oh yeah, they're gonna be real serious about making sure this little problem gets resolved.

The Report proves that we've successfuly taken the battle to the enemy. Terrorist targest are now focused in Iraq rather than in our homelands. The war on terror is working.

(Mork, who are you kidding with that "Who has ever argued that 'fighting terrorism ... only creates more terrorists'?" question? The whole hydra meme – cut off one head, and two replace it – has been an article of faith for the antiwar crowd.)

Mark - I can think of people who have argued, with varying degrees of sensibility, that particular methods of fighting terrorism are counterproductive - or that certain actions taken in the name of fighting terrorism weren't really fighting terrorism at all - but outside the fringe "no violence in any circumstances" crowd, I defy you to find me anyone who doesn't think that terrorism should be fought at all.

Miklos (sorry for the typo in your name in my last post) I take your point, at least to the extent that I agree that some of these things have awful effects for people who are part of that culture. But I really struggle to see how it is ever going to metamorphosize into a threat to the non-Islamic segments of society. As long as our laws are in force, and are applied in full measure, without regard for the religion of the people to whom they are applied, I have confidence in the strength of our institutions to accommodate the level of diversity you describe without weakening.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=540&e=28&u=/ap/20040503/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_foreign_fighters_2

David Duke is a malignant narcissist.

He invents and then projects a false, fictitious, self for the world to fear, or to admire. He maintains a tenuous grasp on reality to start with and the trappings of power further exacerbate this. Real life authority and David Duke’s predilection to surround him with obsequious sycophants support David Duke’s grandiose self-delusions and fantasies of omnipotence and omniscience.
David Duke's personality is so precariously balanced that he cannot tolerate even a hint of criticism and disagreement. Most narcissists are paranoid and suffer from ideas of reference (the delusion that they are being mocked or discussed when they are not). Thus, narcissists often regard themselves as "victims of persecution".
Duke fosters and encourages a personality cult with all the hallmarks of an institutional religion: priesthood, rites, rituals, temples, worship, catechism, and mythology. The leader is this religion's ascetic saint. He monastically denies himself earthly pleasures (or so he claims) in order to be able to dedicate himself fully to his calling.
Duke is a monstrously inverted Jesus, sacrificing his life and denying himself so that his people - or humanity at large - should benefit. By surpassing and suppressing his humanity, Duke became a distorted version of Nietzsche's "superman".
But being a-human or super-human also means being a-sexual and a-moral.
In this restricted sense, narcissistic leaders are post-modernist and moral relativists. They project to the masses an androgynous figure and enhance it by engendering the adoration of nudity and all things "natural" - or by strongly repressing these feelings. But what they refer to, as "nature" is not natural at all.
Duke invariably proffers an aesthetic of decadence and evil carefully orchestrated and artificial - though it is not perceived this way by him or by his followers. Narcissistic leadership is about reproduced copies, not about originals. It is about the manipulation of symbols - not about veritable atavism or true conservatism.
In short: narcissistic leadership is about theatre, not about life. To enjoy the spectacle (and be subsumed by it), the leader demands the suspension of judgment, depersonalization, and de-realization. Catharsis is tantamount, in this narcissistic dramaturgy, to self-annulment.
Narcissism is nihilistic not only operationally, or ideologically. Its very language and narratives are nihilistic. Narcissism is conspicuous nihilism - and the cult's leader serves as a role model, annihilating the Man, only to re-appear as a pre-ordained and irresistible force of nature.
Narcissistic leadership often poses as a rebellion against the "old ways" - against the hegemonic culture, the upper classes, the established religions, the superpowers, the corrupt order. Narcissistic movements are puerile, a reaction to narcissistic injuries inflicted upon David Duke like (and rather psychopathic) toddler nation-state, or group, or upon the leader.
Minorities or "others" - often arbitrarily selected - constitute a perfect, easily identifiable, embodiment of all that is "wrong". They are accused of being old, they are eerily disembodied, they are cosmopolitan, they are part of the establishment, they are "decadent", they are hated on religious and socio-economic grounds, or because of their race, sexual orientation, origin ... They are different, they are narcissistic (feel and act as morally superior), they are everywhere, they are defenseless, they are credulous, they are adaptable (and thus can be co-opted to collaborate in their own destruction). They are the perfect hate figure. Narcissists thrive on hatred and pathological envy.
This is precisely the source of the fascination with Hitler, diagnosed by Erich Fromm - together with Stalin - as a malignant narcissist. He was an inverted human. His unconscious was his conscious. He acted out our most repressed drives, fantasies, and wishes. He provides us with a glimpse of the horrors that lie beneath the veneer, the barbarians at our personal gates, and what it was like before we invented civilization. Hitler forced us all through a time warp and many did not emerge. He was not the devil. He was one of us. He was what Arendt aptly called the banality of evil. Just an ordinary, mentally disturbed, failure, a member of a mentally disturbed and failing nation, who lived through disturbed and failing times. He was the perfect mirror, a channel, a voice, and the very depth of our souls.
Duke prefers the sparkle and glamour of well-orchestrated illusions to the tedium and method of real accomplishments. His reign is all smoke and mirrors, devoid of substances, consisting of mere appearances and mass delusions. In the aftermath of his regime - Duke having died, been deposed, or voted out of office - it all unravels. The tireless and constant prestidigitation ceases and the entire edifice crumbles. What looked like an economic miracle turns out to have been a fraud-laced bubble. Loosely held empires disintegrate. Laboriously assembled business conglomerates go to pieces. "Earth shattering" and "revolutionary" scientific discoveries and theories are discredited. Social experiments end in mayhem.
It is important to understand that the use of violence must be ego-syntonic. It must accord with the self-image of David Duke. It must abet and sustain his grandiose fantasies and feed his sense of entitlement. It must conform David Duke like narrative. Thus, David Duke who regards himself as the benefactor of the poor, a member of the common folk, the representative of the disenfranchised, the champion of the dispossessed against the corrupt elite - is highly unlikely to use violence at first. The pacific mask crumbles when David Duke has become convinced that the very people he purported to speak for, his constituency, his grassroots fans, and the prime sources of his narcissistic supply - have turned against him. At first, in a desperate effort to maintain the fiction underlying his chaotic personality, David Duke strives to explain away the sudden reversal of sentiment. "The people are being duped by (the media, big industry, the military, the elite, etc.)", "they don't really know what they are doing", "following a rude awakening, they will revert to form", etc. When these flimsy attempts to patch a tattered personal mythology fail, David Duke becomes injured. Narcissistic injury inevitably leads to narcissistic rage and to a terrifying display of unbridled aggression. The pent-up frustration and hurt translate into devaluation. That which was previously idealized - is now discarded with contempt and hatred. This primitive defense mechanism is called "splitting". To David Duke, things and people are either entirely bad (evil) or entirely good. He projects onto others his own shortcomings and negative emotions, thus becoming a totally good object. Duke is likely to justify the butchering of his own people by claiming that they intended to kill him, undo the revolution, devastate the economy, or the country, etc. The "small people", the "rank and file", and the "loyal soldiers" of David Duke - his flock, his nation, and his employees - they pay the price. The disillusionment and disenchantment are agonizing. The process of reconstruction, of rising from the ashes, of overcoming the trauma of having been deceived, exploited and manipulated - is drawn-out. It is difficult to trust again, to have faith, to love, to be led, to collaborate. Feelings of shame and guilt engulf the erstwhile followers of David Duke. This is his sole legacy: a massive post-traumatic stress disorder.

Yes, but what in the nine flaming hells does that have to do with the subject at hand? Duke is a flaming bunghole, no one disputes that, but if you want to rant about him get your own blog & don't waste other's bandwidth.

Statistics and spin - ya gotta love 'em both. Gosh, Michael Totten - you have all this time on your hands now, what with you losing your job and all. (Condolences, by the way.) So why aren't you doing some fact-checking? I believe it's taught in those journalism courses that you admit you never got around to taking. Think of it as sharpening your job skills. If somebody hires you to do hard-hitting reporting, they'll probably want something more than reports derived from just reading other journalist's poorly researched once-over-lightly articles.

Pardon my amateur fact-checking in the meantime.

State Department report on Patterns of Global Terrorism section on the Middle East ... where's Iraq? It's not in there? How can it not be in there.

Ah, a whole section in itself:

Appendix E -- Summary of the US Military Counterterrorism Campaign in 2003

Gee, no terror statistics there, though.

You see, when FARC bombs an oil pipeline in Colombia (no casualties, usually) that counts as a terrorist attack.

However, when a Saddam loyalist or a Shi'ite fundamentalist splinter faction bombs an oil pipeline, it doesn't count as a terrorist attack. President Bush can call that a terrorist attack in a speech, but when it comes time to massage the numbers for the electorate, well, they've got to show we're winning. It somehow shows we're winning even though, in measurable terms, taking out an oil pipeline in Iraq hurts Iraqis (who depend on their cars considerably, since they lived with 5 cent/gallon gasoline for many years under Saddam) and hardly hurts Colombian peasants, many of whom consider themselves lucky to have donkey carts.

It doesn't count as a terror attack in Iraq because it's part of a war? Wait a minute, I thought Bush himself said that the war in Iraq is over, but the war on terror goes on. So if it's not terrorists attacking infrastructure in Iraq, who is it? Skull and Bones pranks, here? Oh, those wacky college frat boys, what a riot they are.

Bombing a power line tower? In Iraq, food will rot in refrigerators, and bottled milk will goes bad. Toddlers have to drink the water from taps, which is still killing them because no-bid wired-in-from-the-start U.S. contractors are dragging their feet, saying they are trying to "do it right", and that these are "difficult conditions" while seething Iraqi engineers stand by ready to pitch in at 1/10th the cost. Terrorism plus U.S. war profiteering is killing people when power lines go down and stay down in Iraq. And somehow this casualty count doesn't make it to the bottom line when it's time to assess progress.

But Colombian peasants? "A refrigerator? Yeah, I saw one of those once." And they go on with their lives, saddled with much the same high infant mortality rates they've suffered for generations.

Iraq has been called "flypaper" and for good reason. Iraq gives the Bush administration a way to say we're in heated battle against terrorism in Iraq when they want to call it that. But also to call terrorism something else, when they have to juggle some numbers so that they can call it a win.

Military bases are gone from Saudi Arabia. Diplomatic personnel have recently been evacuated. And now, in the face of increasingly vicious terror attacks in that country, company employees are starting leave. Take it back to basics: What does Osama bin Laden want? He wants his country, Saudi Arabia, stripped of the "Saudi" part. How much closer is he to getting it? A lot closer than the morning of September 11th, 2001. By any measure I can think of.

It's INTERNATIONAL terrorism!!!

I am astounded that nobody in the comments sections seems to have read the full footnote explaining the definition:

http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2003/31880.htm

"The term international terrorism means terrorism involving citizens or the territory of more than one country.

Domestic terrorism is probably a more widespread phenomenon than international terrorism. Because international terrorism has a direct impact on US interests, it is the primary focus of this report. However, the report also describes, but does not provide statistics on, significant developments in domestic terrorism"

ETA attacks by Spanish Basques on Spanish targets are excluded by this definition, as is Timothy McVeigh, or Iraqi suicide bombers taking out Iraqi mosques.

Madrid's March 11, however, will be included, as it meets all the requirements for the definition (pre-meditated, politically motivated violence by foreigners who represent a subnational group).

Apart from September 11 there hasn't been any casualties from international terrorism in North America over the last six years:
http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2003/31751.htm

One other clue for the demise of Al Qaeda is Bin Laden's recent offer to pay gold to anyone who killed the leaders of the "occupation." This is essentially a plea for help. Hussein tried it during the last few days of his regime.

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