"WASHINGTON — As worries about the Iraq war and terrorism have pushed ahead of the economy among the public's priorities, President Bush has edged ahead of Democratic challenger John Kerry, national polls suggest."

HUH?
The above would seem to suggest that if Americans were more concerned about the economy they would side with Kerry.
WHY?
What part of steady growth do they have a problem with?

BHC,

Maybe it's because for 25 years now the Republicans have exploded the deficit whenever they're in charge of the White House. They haven't been the party of fiscal responsibility for at least a generation.

John Kerry's best chance for election would be to disappear until November 1. He has nothing to offer except that he's the other guy. As for W? A- on foreign policy and a D at home.

I'm sorry to relate every issue to Israel, but Bush's situation seems very similar to that of Sharon. The leftists who put up Amram Mitzna to oppose him in the last election were aghast at the Sharon landslide. How could he be re-elected? Terrorism was at an all-time high, the economy at an all time low, by all indicators everyone was worse off than they had been before Sharon took office.

I think the answer is that the Israeli public chose not to blame themselves or their leaders for the problem, but the Palestinians. A similar sentiment may exist with respect to Bush and Iraq/Al Qaida. It also has to do with leadership. Both Bush and Sharon have it in spades, they've proven that they have balls. In times of stress, people would rather follow such a leader, even one who's made mistakes, or engaged in questionable conduct.

Michael: electing a president is a binary affair (yeah, yeah, I know Nader is running; whatever) so it is not simply a question of Bush, good or bad, but Bush vs. Kerry. Kerry has done nothing to help himself; look at the Russert interview, listen to the stump speeches, he has offered very little beyond "I am not George Bush!".

I am admittedly a lifelong non-Democrat voter and so am biased, but I think it is accurate to say the Kerry has done nothing to motivate the (non-Liberal, Left) electorate to choose him over Bush.

Isn't there a theory out there to explain this? Something that says, so long as the national conversation is focused on Iraq and terror (even if it's in a negative light) that by not focusing on domestic issues it helps Bush by default. I sware to God I heard someone saying something like this a while back.

Thought it was totally illogical crap when I heard it. Now I'm not so sure. Even if everyone in the country is zeroing in on how bad Iraq is going, it does tend to point out the obvious, that John Kerry has nothing to say of real relevance on those kinds of issues. Maybe it makes Bush look bad, but it makes the Democrats look even worse. Strange logic.

Grant: Agreed, sort of the "devil you know" mentality in action.

Another idea that I've read abit about (can't locate any links right now) is that the candidate as campaigner, in terms of ideas and plans, frequently turns out to be different from the candidate once elected. Bush being the best and most recent example, i.e.; campaign on an aversion to nation building, foreign entanglements, etc.

So, whether the news is positive or negative today, people do the math and decide they know who Bush is as President and remain unsure what to expect from a Kerry Presidency, regardless of what the candidate may be saying currently.

And as for the whole grading thing everyone is engaging in here, well, here's my take...

Bush gets, more or less, a B+ on foreign affairs and a D- on domestic ones. Love the Wilsonian bent, the moral clarity. Hate the cultural insensitivity and wrecklessly indulgent economic agenda.

Kerry gets a B+ on domestic affairs and a D- on foreign ones. Love the neo-lib fiscal policies. Love the social liberalism (with the occasional rare exception for dogmatic enviromentalism and the like). Hate the absolutely feckless, head-in-the-sand approach to post-9/11 realities in the world.

No one person out there really gets straight A's. Anywhere. Joe Lieberman maybe. John McCain is close. But they're not even perfect. Pining for a new Scoop Jackson gets tiresome after a while.

Don't believe the hype. There has always been a "rally 'round the leader" effect in the polls when bad news strikes (Carter saw his approval ratings soar when the hostages were taken in 1979, and Kennedy got a boost after the Bay of Pigs fiasco). If you take Nader out of the polls, it's dead even, and there ain't no way Nader is going to top 1% this time. And as Ruy Teixeira points out, Bush's standing has improved almost entirely from a boost in his base states; in the swing states, he's actually in worse position than he was a month ago.

I always find it amazing that, when there is bad news and people don't like the guy in charge, some always sing to swing to support the opponent. How do they know he'd necessarily do better?

Today on my blog I linked something from Bruce Feirstein, a centrist Democrat columnist who for some reason very few people seem to link on their blogs. He gave the following six pieces of advice to the Kerry campaign:

1) Senatoritis. You’re getting hung by your own looping, overly nuanced, ultimately contradictory speechifying. Simple, declarative sentences, please.
2) Bob Shrum. Assuming a few things break right for Mr. Bush (the economy, Osama’s capture), this key Kerry campaign adviser knows only one song: populism—"I will fight for you against the rich forces of evil." Among swing voters, it didn’t play for Al Gore; it’ll play even less well for the exceedingly well-off Mr. Kerry.
3) MoveOn.Org. Legally, Mr. Kerry can’t control the ads bought by these kinds of so-called 527 organizations; but as the race tightens and their messages become ever more incendiary, he’s going to be spending his time answering for them. Swat these flies now; with friends like these, you’re not going to need enemies.
4) Attack Fatigue. By continually demonizing Mr. Bush—blaming him for everything from hangnails to W.M.D.’s—Mr. Kerry runs the risk of having his message fall on deaf centrist ears. My advice to the candidate: Cut Mr. Bush some slack somewhere, if only to humanize yourself.
5) Michael Moore. In a particularly vile post on his Web site last week, Mr. Moore criticized Mr. Kerry’s proposal to bring the U.N. into Iraq. Mr. Moore doesn’t want any other country’s troops to be put at risk; he wants American "children" to die in Iraq—and only American children—in order to teach us a lesson. Attention, Senator Kerry: Forget the lunatic left. I think your Sister Souljah moment has arrived. Win votes by cutting him dead, today.
6) Teresa’s Tax Returns. Sorry, but you’re going to have to release them. The sooner, the better. Sure, she probably owns stock in Wal-Mart and Halliburton—but you can blame this on her financial advisers. And you’ll get to use the four words we’ll never hear from the Bush administration:

"We made a mistake."

More than half of these have to do with cutting loose the extremist wing, in other words the Steve Smith wing, of the Democratic party. Does anyone think he's actually going to do that? I mean that as an honest question, not rhetorically. I don't think he will, but I have no dog in this fight. I'd never vote for him.

Anyway, I think it's funny how liberals have now embraced fiscal conservatism as a new way to attack Bush.

Well, I'm a "Traditional Conservative" (but young, only 26). I'm curious what some of the reasons are for Bush's low grade in domestic issues or other areas. I think that in many respects, it's important to recognize that no one is perfect and you can't get everything you want.

Still, I'm very satisfied with Bush. But I'll start with the bad: expanding government welfare by adding a prescription drug benefit, expanding the role of federal efforts in local education, and in general allowing Congress to go on a spending spree as incumbents try to entrench their power.

On the good side, I'm glad he's been forcefully fighting the Democrats on judicial appointments. I'm glad he signed the partial-birth abortion ban. I'm glad he's signed the Patriot Act. I'm VERY glad he cut taxes, and I hope he can make them permanent.

On Foreign Policy, I have only one complaint: that he's allowed Colin Powell to act unrestrained in his critical leaks to the press. If I were Bush, I would've fired Colin Powell a long time ago. I think Powell's reluctance and disagreement with Bush's policies actually caused the failure of the State Department to work towards getting more support across the world for America's foreign policy.

Anyway, is it just a question of different values among those who grade Bush low? Like, if you're pro-abortion, you're mad at him for signing the partial-birth ban? Is it stuff like that? Or is it more barking moonbat crap like "BUSH LIED!!!!!!!!!!" and that he "stole" the election? I'm curious.

Eric: I think it's funny how liberals have now embraced fiscal conservatism as a new way to attack Bush.

I wouldn't put it that way. You could say that many liberals have embraced deficit hawkishness, though, which is something else. Clinton did the same thing. It's not new.

Bush = Sux
Kerry = Sux Harder

This never-voted-for-a-Republican-for-President-before Independent is goin' with the knuckle head from Texas instead of the dunce cap from Massachusetts.

Sydney: I'm curious what some of the reasons are for Bush's low grade in domestic issues or other areas.

For me it's the budget deficit (tax cut and spend) and the religious right.

Sydney,
I think a lot of it is the different values situation, though the whole "barking moonbat crap" can't be discounted for some people.

For me the Congressional spending is what pisses me off most of all, particularly the agricultural subsidies part. I'm also worried about the possibility of the deficit busting the US economy. Mainly because if the American economy goes in the toilet, its going to take a lot of the rest of the world with it.

Clinton embraced deficit hawkishness because he was forced to by the Republican Congress.

You're right that liberals/Democrats do have a history of worrying about deficits. I remember that they criticized Reagan quite a bit on this score.

What I find hypocritical now is that liberals, for example the editorial page writers at the New York Times, are attacking Bush for his spending on social programs, when in the past any cut to any social program was anaethema to them.

If you're worried about the deficit now, and if you recognize that it's not actually a result of the war, there are only two tenable positions:

1) You're against "compassionate conservatism" and want Bush to spend less then he did on social programs.

or

2) You think that taxes should be raised.

Position 1 is not viable for Democrats becuse they actually wanted him to spend even more. For example, their objection to the enormous new prepscription drug entitlement was that it wasn't generous enough. So, obviously they have to embrace option 2, but the trouble is that option 2 only goes so far unless you do some of option 1. And, no Democratic candidate except for Kucinich proposed any measure that would cut spending So, in sum, this is why I don't think deficit hawkishness/fiscal conservatism is a viable position for Democrats/liberals and why I don't think it's genuine.

Eric,

I opposed Bush's tax cut in the first place. Nearly everyone who did so said the deficit would explode. The GOP said it wouldn't. Who was right?

Fixing it will be as difficult as you say, for the reasons you say. But I blame the guy who got us here on purpose, not the people who are stuck in a bad spot having to clean up his mess.

I am going to be lazy because I have to leave the house in a minute, so I can't provide a link. But if I remember correctly, Texas Republicans had to raise taxes after Bush left Austin for Washington because he cut taxes too much as governor and left the budget a mess. (If that's not right, please correct me.) We don't need that at the national level, but apparently that's what we got anyway. And I don't trust him to fix it. Why should I? At least Clinton fixed Reagan's deficit. And it wasn't because of the Republican Congress. He said he would fix it in his first campaign, and he did. For 25 years now the deficit goes up with Republican presidents and down with Democratic presidents. That's a long term trend that I don't think can be easily dismissed.

I have always felt that people should do whatever they want, as long as they don't try to start something with me. I give Bush an A+ for going after Bin Laden post-9/11. Taking out the dogmatic Taliban got him Extra credit. However...

I also think that if I make a mess, I have to clean it up (I learned that in Kindergarden). As the excitement of the Afgan offensive began to wane, we (as a nation and a press corp) got bored and slowly forgot about it... there was new excitement, we were gonna kick Saddam's butt.

If the President was sure that Saddam had WMD's (which I don't know), then he should have gone after him... post-Bin Laden's arrest. The current situation in Afganistan is not good, its not as bad as it was under pure Dogmatic Theocracy, but it is still Not Good. If concentration would have stayed there, if focus had stayed on Bin Laden, I think Afganistan would be in much better shape. I fear that we failed to finish what we started.

Now of course, this was simply the Chaos principle taking over. Since the invasion of Iraq, which now seems as though it could have waited a few months, I have continued to drop my score of Bush's conduct. He's hovering around a C- to a D+ right now.

On the domestic agenda, he gets an F.

Since abortion is mostly an idealistic argument, I think the federal government has no place imposing any rule, law or support, one way or the other. I would much prefer to see States be responsible for determining what will or will not happen in their own boarders. If Ohio says no abortion and W. Va says yes... then people can go across the boarder if their personal belief permits abortion.

Since gay marriage is an idealistic argument... see above.

Medical marijuana... see above.

I would love to see our federal government involve itself in ONLY ensuring Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness. Sure, thats an idealist view as well... but its the main reason I give Bush an F at home. I am not an economics expert, so I don't have an opinion on that.

Kerry gets an Incomplete. He hasn't doine anything really stupid, but he sure hasn't come up with any good ideas yet.

Ratatosk,

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Sydney,

The reason for W's low grades domestically arise from 1)Steel tarriff imposition 2) Out of control spending 3) Medicare benefit just signed 4) not vetoing McCain Feingold 5) Out of control spending.

MT,

The deficit is the wrong factor to examine. Revenues fell PRIMARILY because of the recession, less so because of the tax cuts. It's the spending that is the problem. Government revenue is close to 2 Trillion. I think that's plenty.

When an entire country invests in poop.com (yes that was real), where do you expect the economy to go?

But then, I could never figure why people were investing in pig stomaches.

Tosk

Michael,

I totally sympathize with the budget deficit concerns. However, I think that a policy of raising taxes is a bad way to go about fixing it, because it seems as if you fix one problem with a worse one. I wish that a lot of useless pork spending would be cut, but an incumbent (Democrat or Republican) will never cut that stuff. Best to hope to prevent big entitlement programs, but unfortunately that's not the case here.

I don't know if I'm a member of the "religious right." I'm pro-life, I go to church every Sunday, I believe in God, but I'm not trying to convert anyone. I think that in general practicing Christians are given the shaft by the media and elites, which is unfortunate. I don't care what Hollywood produces, because in general I avoid pop culture (except for Southpark). I think that the Courts have really gone overboard in their anti-religious crusade, to the point where it's probable that preaching may be a hate-crime, and that churches which don't conform to equal opportunity rules on homosexuals will lose their tax-exempt status. I also think that it's wrong how the Senate Democrats seem to have a religious bias against practicing Christians, and if they're not imposing an unconstitutional religious test by barring believing and practicing Christians, they're certainly smearing them in public as untrustworthy and unable to perform government jobs with fairness. Didn't Jews used to get smeared like that?

Michael, even if Kerry gave a "sister souljah" speech he'd probably muddle it so badly that it would have no effect, or the opposite effect, and then he'd accuse those vile Republicans of distorting, lying about, or taking his remarks out of context. Clinton could dance; Kerry plods.

Sydney,

I agree completely that the court system should quit trying to legislate religion. At one time they were keen on granting religious freedoms. Jehoavh's Wittnesses, among others, won many legal battles that increased freedom of religion (even though their belief system is anything but free). However, courts now, instead of making sure everyone is free to worship as they believe (as long as it doesn't harm the Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness of others), they are legislating what what is allowed to practice. It's become a believe what you will, but only practice what is politically correct. I feel like Daniel in the court of King Darius. Whe I practice my worship, I worry if a Law Enforcement Officer is going to cart me away.

I may not share your God, but I share your concern.

Tosk

Michael, part of the problem with Bush and the expanding deficit is Congress, and the way it works. By not cutting spending, Bush is helping to ensure Congressional support for his actions abroab. Individual Congressmen aren't punished for a rising deficit, but the President is. However, they are punished for allowing cuts to be made to programs that affect their voters. Since the military budget was increased a bit, and taxes cut, and revenue down, the only way to keep the budget in the black was to cut spending. And Congress would never go with it. Even Rep. Congressman don't want to go there, will do all they can to avoid cutting spending. Hence the current problems with the budget. When the President is a democrat, the GOP can be agressively fiscal hawks, because they can use the President as their "scapegoat", if you will. With a Rep. President, that doesn't work. Things are even worse in the Senate, where there are no "safe districts." Speaking of which, I wonder how the Senate races are shaping up?

Ratatosk: they are legislating what what is allowed to practice.

How so? Who can't practice their religion in this country? Even the Wahhabi Muslims can practice. I haven't seen any padlocks on churches, mosques, synagogues, or Buddhist temples.

Maybe Bush has got this one in the bag after all; Dick Morris now believes that the recent polls actually shows him to be in trouble!

Can a Rastafarian practice his religious ceremonies throughout the US, even in the privacy of his home? What about the O Centro Espirita Beneficiente Uniao do Vegetal? Can they practice without fear of their sacred tea being grabbed by the DEA?

What about the Validictorian who wishes to offer a prayer to the Christian god?

Freedom of religion means that everyone should be free to worship as they see fit, as long as it doesn't damage the Life, Liberty and Pursuit of Happiness of others. If they believe in Entheogens, Proslyizing or Public Prayer.

The courts, hopefully will continue to improve... the UDV church recently won an injunction and both Hawaii and Guam now have laws to protect Rastifarians. Perhaps someday we will see true spiritual freedom as opposed to religious freedom.

Tosk

Uh oh. Better watch out for those polls in April. Weren't all the losers of the last few elections up by %10-%20 at the equivalent point?

Kerry bombed on Russert's show, and the way he's dealing with his Vietnam records is digging an even deeper hole for himself.
Belmontclub has a great article today about the type of war western civilization will be facing over the next several decades, versus islamist terror militants. Bush gets it. Kerry doesn't.

Yes, Ratatosk, I am in accord with you and your spirit. I am not allowed to practice my religion to the full measure and my heart weeps. I have the altar and obsidian daggers ready; and the ritual pyramind built in my back yard (the zoning officials, well! that's another story!) The chacs of maize and rain remains hungry but I am forbidden to sacrifice a single victim to alleviate their distress. How unfair.

Ratatosk,

I hear you about the Rastas. They would be breaking the law if they practiced their religion to the fullest, so they are not being singled out as Rastas. I'm all in favor of legalizing pot, though, so when I'm in power they won't have anything to worry about.

Ixmal,

Unfortunately, (unless the sacrificee is completely sane and is desireous of being said sacrifice) the practice of sacrificing victims conflicts with their Life, Liberty and their Persuit of Happiness. Not one of the things I mentioned earlier imposes my will/belief/etc on others.

Please Try Again,
Ratatosk, Squirrel of Discord

I'm disappointed in the Kerry campaign so far, but OTOH it's only April.

Most voters aren't paying attention to the election yet. Kerry's best move at this point is to raise money, toss some barbs at Bush, let events speak for themselves.

In a couple of months it'll be time to lay out his agenda.

Michael,

Making pot legal would take care of the Rasta's for sure. But it would be nice to see the Court prefer to err on the side of freedom, instead of the side of the War on Some Drugs.

Sigh, Idealism...

Tosk

Good advice for Kerry is to stay away from the Tim Russert show and any other show where the host is likely to ask hard questions.
And, oh yes, simply keep his mouth shut most of the time, and let his people put out his message.
Except this latest fiasco, where they stole another naval officer's combat record and put it on display as if it were Kerry's. Not very good work, that.

I also support higher taxes. Afterall, isn't the Government the Economy?

Raise them to 100%. Then we will have a balenced budget!

Good advice for Kerry is to stay away from the Tim Russert show and any other show where the host is likely to ask hard questions.
And, oh yes, simply keep his mouth shut most of the time, and let his people put out his message.

I disagree. Just because it works for Bush doesn't mean it would work for Kerry.

I'd love for Kerry to have a "Sister Souljah" moment, but I'm left wondering as to just who or what it would be about. It could be about a million different things. It could have happened a million different times, already...

The biggest missed opportunity thus far would have been for him to publicly call upon Massachusetts State Legislators to pass the Marriage Amendment in that state. It looks like it's gonna happen, anyway, but it was pretty damned stupid for Kerry to remain silent about it. He says he's against same-sex marriages. He could have proven it, outright, and sent a very centrist message to blue-collar Dems that he's no "latte liberal". I'm pretty damn liberal, culturally, myself so I really don't give two shits either way. I'm just saying, it would have gone a long way...like, say, in Ohio.

Bush will try and blur the line between legal rights and marriage. This would have given Kerry something to repel that kind of attack with. Would have bolstered support for civil unions probably even. Now, he's got nothing. Well, other than his word, which most people in America are starting to figure out doesn't mean much anyway.

Grant: He says he's against same-sex marriages. He could have proven it, outright, and sent a very centrist message to blue-collar Dems that he's no "latte liberal".

If he did that I would like him even less than I already do.

The deficit is right about where it would be under a Gore administration; the difference is that we have a stronger economy than we would have under Prince Albert. Gore would have increased spending instead of cutting taxes, but the net effect on the deficit would be minimal.

And Kerry gives no sign of being more fiscally responsible. He talks a good game about rescinding the taxes for the wealthy, but immediately starts making plans to spend the money elsewhere. Plus he's lying about offering a tax cut to 98% of Americans--if you check out his proposals the only people who'd get a tax cut are folks with kids in college and those needing help getting health care coverage. The rest of the people are just going to get the Bush tax cuts "extended".

When I see President Bush I see someone who is serious about his job about what he believes and who is determined to do what he can to keep us safe. I see someone fundamentally honest. WHen I see Kerry I see a flip flopping cyper whose only rule is expediency and who will say anything to get elected. This is why I will be voting for Bush and I suspect a high percentage of swing voters will agree.

Zhombre gets it right: Clinton was by far the finest pure politician that the Dems have produced in the last generation, while Kerry has barely has a pulse when it comes to charisma.

My brther had a chance to meet Clinton for about 30 seconds when he was President, and said this guy had an uncanny ability to speak with perfect strangers as if he knew them and had a deep connection with them. Clinton survived the Republican attack machine for one reason--he was well-liked by the majority of voters. The likability factor for is almos nil--miles wide, three-quarters of an inch deep. I just don't see what Kerry has going for him beyond the fact that he's not Bush. People know Bush well, with all his flaws. Kerry remains a cipher, and in troubled tiems people don't want to bet the farm on an unknown.

Can't say I disagree EXCEPT on foreign policy where I have to give W an "A".
It is not so much the execution of the policy it's the POLICY itself which merits the "A".I can't see ANY Democratic candidate except Mr.Lieberman having the courage AND conviction to see the world as it truly is.
That is why GWB MUST finish the job over the next 4 years.Kerry is not just a cipher;he is a cipher who panders instead of standing up for any true values.A truly dangerous man for these dangerous times.

Pat Curley:
"The deficit is right about where it would be under a Gore administration; the difference is that we have a stronger economy than we would have under Prince Albert. Gore would have increased spending instead of cutting taxes, but the net effect on the deficit would be minimal."

The deficit this year is inconsequential. The important question is what will be our debt ceiling and our interest payments on that debt 10-15 years from now? Since the American people are likely to refuse the call to support a repeal Bush's middle class tax cuts, and since they are also adamantly opposed to meaningful spending cuts, I predict out of control national debt for years, until Democrats manage to win the Presidency, and Greenspan (or whoever is the Fed head at the time) decides the new President needs put on a spending leash.

The best thing about a Gore presidency is that there would not have been any tax cuts, or only short term ones, while spending increases would have been also been less. It will be the same under Kerry. For some reason, deficits and debt are ONLY of concern to lawmakers -- particularly Republican lawmakers -- as well as the FED, when a Democrat is in the White House. Increasing the national debt to unsustainable levels is acceptable to Republicans as long as it 1) occurs under a Republican president and 2) does not lead to new spending, and 3) creates a fiscal crisis that will make it easier for Republicans to achieve the single most important item on domestic agenda for the next several decades, namely forcing a change in the Social Security in order to force a reduction in its benefits and in order to give Wall Street access to a large chunk of everyone's payroll taxes.

"And Kerry gives no sign of being more fiscally responsible. He talks a good game about rescinding the taxes for the wealthy, but immediately starts making plans to spend the money elsewhere. Plus he's lying about offering a tax cut to 98% of Americans--if you check out his proposals the only people who'd get a tax cut are folks with kids in college and those needing help getting health care coverage. The rest of the people are just going to get the Bush tax cuts "extended."

I agree that Kerry lacks credibility when he TALKS. Recinding only the parts of the Bush tax cuts that affect the wealthy, as Kerry has promised, will not raise that much money overall, and he doesn't have the guts to challenge voters on the need for middle class tax hikes. Consequently, he has already announced that deficit reduction will be a greater priority for hims than any of the few new programs he has proposed in the Democratic primaries. If Kerry is elected -- highly unlikely I must say -- he's not going to do much of anything as far as new spending is concerned.

Nevertheless, if you're at all worried about debt reduction, you've gotta vote Democratic as the lesser of two evils.

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