No, the opposition will not lead. Here is what a "hardline" Democrat sounds like these days:

DAUM: You have said, "Stay the course." George Bush calls the people there "thugs;" you call them "extremists." But they hated Saddam Hussein, and they now hate us. They wanted Saddam Hussein out. Now they want the United States out. And you say, "Stay the course." What the United States is doing is bombing hospitals, bombing mosques, sniping at civilians, killing hundreds of civilians, wounding thousands of civilians. And you say, "Stay the course." Is that the criminal course that you want to stay? This is an imperialist country that's fighting an imperialist war. You say, "Stay the course of this imperialist war," and you say you are a stark difference from George Bush. People hate George Bush. By the end of your presidency people will hate you for the same thing. You may fool some of the Americans that you are different from George Bush on this war, but you're not fooling most of the world and you're going to fool Iraqis.

KERRY: I have consistently been critical of how we got where we are, but we are where we are, sir. And it would be unwise beyond belief for the United States of America to leave a failed Iraq in its wake. And I want the Americans out, and so do Americans want.

Wrong answer. Right answer: "You, sir, are a fool. And that's a charming tinfoil hat you're wearing."

If Democrats want to convince me they're serious about terror, they can start by showing Mr. Daum and his ilk the door.

Heh.

The answer is no.

I think that Berman has really hit the nail on the head.

But I am not holding my breath. The Democratic party seems unable to offer anyone who can lead in the way described here. I really don't understand why that is.

The setup (my opinion, but I don't think the exchange wouldn't have been made public had the media thought it to be damaging) with the antiwar protester is from the same playbook as the Berman article. We've got the Newspaper of Record trying to sell Kerry as a war president.

Kerry has to develop some sort of seperation from the fringe that elected him in the primaries. He must appeal to swing voters that don't follow the issues past soundbites and the terminal TV run at the end of the campaign. The Democrats have polled their base and found that antiwar is all they will vote for...but that there aren't enough antiwar voters to win nationally.

The problem with the Berman editorial is that it presumes any willingness on the part of the Democrat base to prosecute the war at all. If they actually attempt to publish a reasonable alternative, their base evaporates. The middle (very small number this time around) gets to watch the show. John Kerry is no showman.

That base was exquisitely represented by the antiwar protestor. He well and truly kicked Kerry's ass and Kerry came off sounding canned.

The Democrats are running up against that pesky reality of American politics. The voters who really decide the issue in the end DO have their own agendas that candidates ignore at their peril. Kerry isn't capable of establishing a policy agenda - he's limited to chasing polls.

The faction of citizens on the far, far Left don't want any temporizing rhetoric. "Anybody but Bush" might sway some of them, but there's a large minority that will sit out or vote Nader instead of violating their prinicples just to see Kerry elected, and that is their right.

Watching Kerry attempt to move to the middle, however tentatively, is like watching an Iowa housewife step off a cruise ship into a Jamaican slum. Both the housewife and the Brahmin are incapable of relating to the environment.

That buyer's remorse stuff is tough; very tough. Kerry has been the machine choice of an ultraliberal machine state for almost two decades. Pretty poor choice for a national candidate at any time, but downright silly in a time of war. Bush has made it plain he will prosecute this war to the hilt, with the stated objective of directly confronting and destroying active terrorists whenever and whereever we find them. Simultaneously, we are doing the nationbuilding necessary to remove the breeding ground that generates terror. He's made it crystal clear that the interests of the U.S. make it impossible to temporize or restrain our efforts to satisfy the whims of the U.N. or the senisbilities of former allies who may be reticent out of the mistaken belief their political philosophy or economic ties somehow shield them.

Kerry...the best Kerry can do is say we cannot afford to lose. Good for him. Too bad he cannot publish a policy to prevent that from happening without seeing his constituency bail over to Nader.

I'm a registered democrat who will not be voting for Kerry until I'm convinced he can do a better job on fighting terrorist movements and in Iraq than Bush is currently. Bush and/or his advisers have made a lot of what were, in hindsight mistakes during the invasion and occupation of Iraq and a few that were predicted by reasonable people ahead of time as likely to lead to problems later on (not having enough troops, for example). But I currently have no confidence in Kerry's ability to make a decision and stick to it. That said, if I think Bush has become more of a liability in the war than Kerry would be (a judgement call, obviously), I'll vote against him in a heartbeat.

This, for me, is the crux though: Berman argues that swathes of people around the world hate Bush personally, and either implies or says that anti-American sentiment is due to his rhetoric, and thus Bush is a liablity. That's a comforting thought, because it means that if we replace Bush with a nuanced, sensitive thinker who respects the opinions of others, the world will love us again (as if they did until Bush was elected).

I don't think that's realistic. Anti americanism, where it isn't completely irrational, is based on the perception that we're too powerful (for other people's liking), and determined to stay that way. It isn't primarily based on how nice and respectful of others we are while we pursue foreign policy, UNLESS we are willing to curtail our actions to reflect that.
I don't see Kerry changing the facts of foreign policy - I don't think he's likely to pull out of Iraq, for example - and if he doesn't change the actions, he can talk until he's blue in the face, they'll still dislike us just as much. There wasn't a "nice" way to invade Afghanistan, and there wasn't a "nice" solution to Saddam Hussein.

So far, I see Kerry saying he'll pretty much continue G.W.B.'s policies, but he'll do it better, and get the UN on board (I think that's unrealistic also, and pointless to boot, but that's another topic).

I still hope the Democrats take Berman's advice though. I would like to vote for the party that was closer to me in domestic policy.

Maybe Kerry should hire Berman onto his campaign team as an foreign policy adviser/speechwriter. Hell, why not go all the way and put him on the ticket. How does Kerry/Berman 04 sound, better yet Berman/Kerry 04. You know it makes sense.

TmjUtah:

"Bush has made it plain he will prosecute this war to the hilt, with the stated objective of directly confronting and destroying active terrorists whenever and wherever we find them. Simultaneously, we are doing the nationbuilding necessary to remove the breeding ground that generates terror. He's made it crystal clear that the interests of the U.S. make it impossible to temporize or restrain our efforts to satisfy the whims of the U.N. or the sensibilities of former allies who may be reticent out of the mistaken belief their political philosophy or economic ties somehow shield them."

This is one of the points of contention: wether there was a way to pursue the war on terror and simultaneously keep the UN and France and Germany on board.

I don't think there was: the countries named have different national interests than we do. They didn't oppose us because we made cosmetic mistakes, they opposed the fundamental policy (in Iraq, obviously, not Afghanistan). I don't think nuance would have made a difference so long as the fundamental policy was the same. Kerry says he'll maintain the policy.

By the way, are Tmj your initials, or do you grind your teeth?

Sebastian -

I agree with a lot of your positions. I don't see anything wrong with the invasions - militarily they set benchmarks of efficiency and success that will be hard to beat. If I could go back and change a thing about the post-war work, it would be to stifle our State Department. They have contributed to the problem like having a swimmer carry a cinderblock for luck.

I fear electing Kerry will lead to our troops stranded in Iraq and elsewhere, devoid of mission or objectives. THAT would be a quagmire.

Sebastian -

Crossing posts!

TMJ is an old callsign, from the days when surveyors ruled the battlefield. Well, not really, but we didn't appear on most of the frequency lists (ACEOI sheets) so we got called whatever the battalion commander saw fit to call us.

Matter of fact, I do grind now and again, but nothing worth a clinical diagnosis.

The current situation is not one where merely maintaining policy is an option. Without an unambiguous final objective and consistent, aggressive action to accomplish it, our 'war' would slowly grind to a halt.

The biggest losers would be our military members, and they would recognise it immediately. Retention and recruitment are running at record levels even in the midst of the full court doomsaying press coverage. Wonder how that can be? I don't think it's economics. It's trust.

Sebastian:

So far, I see Kerry saying he'll pretty much continue G.W.B.'s policies, but he'll do it better, and get the UN on board (I think that's unrealistic also, and pointless to boot, but that's another topic).

That seems unlikely to me.

KERRY: Yes, but...but...but the point is this, sir. You're not listening to me.

DAUM: Oh, yes, I am.

KERRY: Well, then you haven't, frankly, listened, because in fact the course that I have proposed is to you turn over to the United Nations the full responsibility for the transformation of the government and for the reconstruction. [emphasis added]

Considering the track record of the United Nations, this is the moral equivalent of cutting and running. For that matter, what leads Kerry to think the UN wants that job? Didn't they pull their staff out after the first attack on their headquarters? (And after they'd turned down offers of protection from US forces)?

And then there's this:

"I have always said from day one that the goal here . . . is a stable Iraq, not whether or not that's a full democracy. I can't tell you what it's going to be, but a stable Iraq. And that stability can take several different forms."

You can't get a much more explicit rejection of the Bush Doctrine than that. By that forumlation, setting Saddam back up in his palaces and allowing the Ba'athist back in charge would be the cheapest and easiest way to meet the goals of the United States.

I'm not suggesting Kerry would do that, but that's where the logic takes you.

And the Left claims Bush is the dummy.

Kerry isn't well liked by the troops, at least from what I hear. They have to be factored in too. I happen to think that Kerry will be forced to reduce if not outright cancel the WOT by his base. He simply can't ignore them, history has shown that presidents ALWAYS lose if they tick off their base. Always. Unless he doesn't mind being a one term president, Kerry will not, can not, be an active supporter of the WOT.

Found your site thanks to a site that compared my site with yours. They wrote:“…I guess I'm pretty much alone now in this blogosphere, except for the few moderate-leftist and moderate-rightist blogs that exist like Bonoboland, and those of Micheal Totten and Frans Groenendijk.....”
After some reading I am not sure who of us is the moderate-left and who the moderate-right. I like that.

The core of many problems in dicussing “Iraq” in my opinion is that so many people who opposed the war before it began (I was one of them) are still debating without truly accepting the historical fact that it WAS fought (and was much more succesful then they feared it would be. The question now is: what next).
I like Berman’s article very much but even he makes this mistake to some extend: “...It is tempting to conclude that, all in all, we would have been better off staying out of Iraq altogether — and maybe this will turn out to be the case.
But everyone who feels drawn to that conclusion had better acknowledge its full meaning: the unavoidable implication that we would be better off today with Saddam Hussein in power; better off with economic sanctions still strangling the Iraqi people....”

“We would have”, it’s simply to late for that. I must admit that I must fight the urge to comment on it…
What I like most about Berman’s article is that he not just comments but makes a proposition as well

I am pretty sure Europe (I am from the Netherlands) will not accept Bin Ladens thruce proposition. The US administration, and if it’s not capable the Democrats should start already before november, should acknowledge that US-unilateralism is in short term interest of Europe: the US will attract even more hate when the US neglect their alliances.
And the other side of this is really crucial: when US-politics succeeds in involving European (and other democratic countries!) in Iraq and the greater middle east issues, these countries will be targeted more by the islam-fascists. The politicians of these allied countries will have to to be open about this and defend it!

ps: read this post by Niftin Pai at Bonoboland too: "The US must not lose in Iraq": "....If a country as far removed from the heat of Islamic terrorism as Japan sees the need to send it forces to Iraq in spite of its pacifist constitution then surely India should see it too..."

ps2: It is possible that I have missed it but has there been a welcoming from Bush OR Kerry towards Zapatero when he stated that withdrawal of troops from Iraq could possibly be combined with enlarging the number of soldiers in Afghanistan? (If I am not mistaken a similar suggestion came from Australian politicians later)

Here is what I posted, about an hour before you (I'm on Mountain Time, you're on Cali).

As usual, the reaction of most of your readers is that Democrats are, inherently, fools, dupes, and wimps.

I suppose if one mutters about Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, and Johnson, one will hear they aren't today's Democrats.

It's easy to do if one stereotypes "today's Democrats," and demonizes the extremes.

It's not completely accurate, however. Saying Kerry's announced policies aren't his policies only goes so far.

The fact remains, of course, that we are only guessing what Kerry will do.

The judge is out. Those who are able to see the future are an old kind of jury. They may render a proper verdict. We'll see.

@Mark

This is what Kerry wrote in the Washington post:

"The United Nations, not the United States, should be the primary civilian partner in working with Iraqi leaders to hold elections, restore government services, rebuild the economy, and re-create a sense of hope and optimism among the Iraqi people. The primary responsibility for security must remain with the U.S. military, preferably helped by NATO until we have an Iraqi security force fully prepared to take responsibility. "

My emphasis.

No mistake: I am not convinced (yet) that Kerry would go with Berman's analysis and proposition.

I want to know how to go to a combat area, get a couple of bandaid wounds and five medals, and then bugger out of combat, leaving my comrades behind.
Because that is Kerry's way, to bugger out.

they can't lose with supporters such as this:

http://www.poopreport.com/Intellectual/Content/Poopforpeace/peace.html

they can't lose with supporters such as this:

http://www.poopreport.com/Intellectual/Content/Poopforpeace/peace.html

"I want to know how to go to a combat area, get a couple of bandaid wounds and five medals, and then bugger out of combat, leaving my comrades behind"...

Political cheapshot or not, Blythe, that's just hugely innappropriate. Quite a few of my friends are in the service. A handful of them are in Iraq. They'd kick your ass five ways from Sunday for saying something like this. Each and every one of them. Taking turns.

And as for the political implications of what you said, I don't know of anyone who wouldn't of wanted to "bugger out" from what John Kerry went through. Vietnam was a mistake, and in his own words, he didn't want to be the last man to die for it. So he left a few months early, as was allowed. Big effing deal. At least he went.

I commented on this over at Roger's blog. Basically I don't see Kerry having the room to manuever like this. Dean took his big lead on the basis of opposing every move that Bush made. Kerry was able to steal his thunder by imitating that aspect of the Vermonster's campaign. But if he tries to move to the center the left will desert him in a heartbeat.

The problem (from the standpoint of Kerry) is that the Democrats are NOT really hungry enough. Oh, they think they are, but if they'd really been hungry they would have swallowed their medicine and accepted a relatively moderate candidate like Dick Gephardt or Joe Lieberman. This is not all that surprising; when a party loses a very close presidential election (as in 1960, 1968, 1976 and 2000) they tend to nominate a candidate from their wings (as in 1964, 1972, 1980 and 2004).

As I said on my blog, this is the problem with the old adage that in a close election you have to rally your base. It's true enough when applied to a future election, but it's a recipe for disaster when trying to analyze a past election. The myth in Democratic circles is that Gore didn't energize the base enough. The problem with this theory is that 4 million more people voted for Gore in 2000 than voted for Clinton in 1996. I see no evidence that the base wasn't energized; it just wasn't quite big enough.

Remember, too, that each vote in the center is worth two votes on the wings. A vote won by Kerry on the left is only taken away from Ralph Nader; it is a net gain of one on Bush. A vote won by Kerry in the center is taken away from Bush; that's a net gain of two.

You're making alot of sense, Pat. According to polls, 1/3 of the country is Republican, 1/3 of the country is Democrat, and 1/3 of the country is Independent. But the polls don't really get to the heart of this.

I've done alot of research on it, and the Independents themselves break down into thirds: They all still call themselves and think of themselves as independents, but 2/3 of them will vote a particular way every time.

At the end of the day, especially with Bush and Kerry both being half-hearted moderates equally removed from dead center, 45% of the country is going to vote for one of them and 45% for the other. You're correct in pointing out that NEITHER base is big enough. Only 10% of the votes are really going to make a difference one way or another and they're in the Center.

I dunno if I'd call Gephardt a bonafide moderate, though. Lieberman by all means, but on economics, Gephardt was to the left of Dean and Kerry by a mile.

Voted against NAFTA. Voted against the WTO. Has been Mister AFL-CIO for as long as he's been in Washington. The guy never was, never is, and never will be what you would call a Populism Hating New Democrat.

None of this is to say he wouldn't help Kerry in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, though. Still think Evan Bayh would be the better pick.

Berman: "... the invasion ... of Iraq [was] depressingly bungled."

Sure it was. Is that just a throwaway line meant to appease Times readers?

Berman: "But the bigger problem has to do with public understandings of the war. People around the world may not want to lift a finger in aid so long as the anti-totalitarian logic of the war remains invisible to them. President Bush ought to have cleared up this matter. He has, in fact, spoken about conspiracy theories and hatred (including at Tuesday's press conference). He has spoken about a new totalitarianism, and has even raised the notion of a war of ideas. But Mr. Bush muddied these issues long ago by putting too much emphasis on weapons in Iraq."

Long before the war started, Bush began arguing that there are compelling strategic and moral justifications for liberalizing/democratizing Iraq. Berman has a long track record of ignoring, or pretending not to grasp, Bush's pro--democracy statements on Iraq. Berman appears to be a phobic ideologue who can't bear to imagine that he and Bush agree on a few significant things.

Berman: "Somebody else will have to straighten out these confusions, then. I think it will have to be the Democrats — at least those Democrats who accept the anti-totalitarian logic. And why shouldn't they show a bit of leadership? .... I wish the Democrats would follow Mr. Kerry's example and take it a step further ..."

Maybe Kerry and other ultra-sophisticated Democrats could meet with Mr. "Brandini" to hammer out Iraq's future.

Berman: "The Democrats ought to thank and congratulate the countries that have sent troops ..."

It's a little late for that, seeing as how the Democrats nominated someone who refers to those countries as a "fraudulent coalition".

Berman: "The Democrats ... ought to make the call for patience and sacrifice that Mr. Bush has steadfastly avoided."

When has Bush discussed Iraq and the "war on terror" without stressing that we're engaged in a long-term struggle requiring patience and resolve? What is Berman talking about?

Perhaps Bush should "make a call for sacrifice," but what exactly does Berman have in mind? Does he mean tax increases to beef up the military? Does he want Bush to bring back the draft? If anyone knows what Berman has in mind, please fill me in.

Berman call to the Democrats is a case of too little too late. The party is thoroughly corrupt and beyond redemption. His call will go unanswered. Consequently his op-ed does more harm than good because the gratuitous shots he takes at Bush that are the necessary sugar the Dems need to swallow their medicine are no longer sufficient to get them to take their meds. All we end up with is the harm caused by the gratuituous shots, without any benefits from the medicine.

Anyway, if your want to see a real MUST READ article by Berman, read this:

http://www.wehaitians.com/the%20philosopher%20of%20islamic%20terror.html

This article is about Sayyid Qutb who is the Islamist Karl Marx. If you want to understand Al Qaeda and the Islamist movement, read this article. Also, the article shows that Al Qaeda understands its enemies better than we understand ours. The consequences of this disconnect are staggering. In a war - and we are in a war - the side that understands itself and its enemies better will win.

Go read this article. Now. And when you are done, read it again.

The article originally appeared in the NY Times, but you have to pay to get it from their site.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F00B16F83C550C708EDDAA0894DB404482

PS, I found this article because it was linked by a poster here on Totten. I printed it out and didn't read it for a couple of weeks so I forgot who provided the link. Anyway, belated thanks to whoever linked it.

Grant,

Still think Evan Bayh would be the better pick.

I thought you despised Evan Bayh?

Here's a working link to Berman's article on Qutb:

link

"I want to know how to go to a combat area, get a couple of bandaid wounds and five medals, and then bugger out of combat, leaving my comrades behind.
Because that is Kerry's way, to bugger out."

It's just awful the way they give out those Silver Stars. I'm sure the writer has far greater experience in combat. No one could possibly write such stuff without actual combat experience, or they might die of embarrassment and shame. It speaks well of the Republican Party that such heros advocate for them.

After all, who could not admire Richard Cheney's far more heroic war record?

Grant, the comment about neither party's base being big enough alone is absolutely true. I do wonder though if the Democrats have a bigger problem in terms of people who would not vote for them no matter what.

The Dems have a program called 51-04, which means they are striving for 51% of the vote this year. That may not sound like a terribly ambitious goal, but in fact it has been achieved by only one Democratic candidate for president since FDR in 1944, and that was a very special case (LBJ in 1964). Carter in 1976 was the only other Dem to get even 50% of the vote; the other Democrats to win all ended up as plurality, not majority, winners. By contrast, the Republicans have been able to get absolute majorities in 1952, 1956, 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988.

Michael Berube has an interesting counterpoint to Berman's piece:

But isn't it looking as if this invasion and occupation is confirming precisely the "paranoia and hatred" Berman speaks of? Doesn't it seem possible that millions of Muslims, let alone the liberal democrats of the Muslim world, are going to understand American "interventions" in the Middle East in terms of the actions and statements of the Bush Administration (think Negroponte, think Sharon and his wall-- and that's just this week alone) rather than in terms of the professions of good will from a handful of hawkish liberal intellectuals?

http://tinyurl.com/38obb

HadEnoughYet,

Michael Berube is an idiot:

http://www.erinoconnor.org/archives/000800.html
http://www.erinoconnor.org/archives/000801.html
http://www.discriminations.us/storage/002328.html

@Pat / Grant

Are you familiar with Rall's rule of ideological balance?
Looked sensible to me.

HA...

I do indeed despise Evan Bayh. As a political scientist though, I'm just saying he'd make a hell of alot of sense as a VP pick. We're talking science here, not values. ;)

PAT...

Looking at history is one thing, and it's usually an excellent guide, but 2004 isn't 1964 or 1944 and today's Democrats aren't the Dems of yesteryear. This election will probably swing one way or another based solely upon events occuring between now and November. And, as a political scientist, let me tell you that this is hugely not the norm. Studies have shown that voters tend to make up their minds by Labor Day. Depending on particular events in the world, they might not make up their minds this November until, well, this November.

If Iraq falls apart, as I would argue it just might do, Kerry will win in a landslide simply by not being War-President-George. It'll be a referendum election and he'll win by default. On the other hand, if the economy keeps recovering and Iraq holds it together through November, Bush will probably run away with it, especially if we nab Bin Laden.

This Presidential Election cycle, more so than any previous cycle in the past hundred or so years that I can think of, is in the hands of fate. In essence, it's a roll of the dice.

PAT PS...

And if you really want to try and boggle the mind, just try and REALISTICALLY guess what a John Kerry Presidency would look like. Republicans are likely to keep control of both houses of Congress, meaning:

-His Tax Rollback Proposal Would Go Nowhere.

-His Health Care Proposal Would Go Nowhere.

-His Proposals for Drug Coverage Would Go Nowhere.

-Etc, Etc, not one bit of his agenda would move.

And God knows the United Nations will STILL want nothing to do with Iraq. Kerry would be "President Liberal" in a world run by Conservatives. He'd either morph into a Centrist-Clinton or sit on his hands and go the way of Carter. Either way, Bill Frist would be the most powerful man in Washington. Bizarre, aye?

Not that I'm saying a Kerry Presidency wouldn't give Democrats a much needed pulpit from which to communicate their ideas with the public, a pulpit they're sorely lacking today, just that it'd probably be a return to 1994 in which a pulpit was all the Democrats got.

Grant McEntire: "Not that I'm saying a Kerry Presidency wouldn't give Democrats a much needed pulpit from which to communicate their ideas ..."

Seriously, what "ideas"? As far as I can tell, the central organizing principle of the Democratic party is that if someone has an itch, the government should scratch it.

If you could magically convince all Americans to support your politics, what would you have the government do (or not do)?

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