Michael J. Totten: New Column

April 14, 2004

New Column

My new Tech Central Station column is up: The New Neutrality.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at April 14, 2004 10:26 PM

Comments

Good points, Michael. I think one of the things that absolutely galls the Europeans is that our defense made it possible for them to erect their massive social safety nets, and now they are realizing that they have largely been left behind in the dust both militarily and economically.

Remember, too, that the American left told them for decades that what would happen was that the Soviets would become more like the Americans and the Americans would become more like the Soviets, and we'd meet somewhere in the middle--where the Europeans had already gotten. It gave them a good feeling to think that they were ahead of us on the political/economic scale.

Posted by: Pat Curley at April 14, 2004 10:41 PM

You know, reading this column, I realized why I find your writing so frustrating. It's that you display no capacity for empathy. You don't seem to have any idea how the world looks to a person with a world view or culture that is not your own. The result is that when you try to decribe them, you end up with these rigid little caricatures reflecting nothing so much as your pre-existing framework of how people (ie you) think.

This column is a case in point. "Europeans think ... ", "Europeans know ...", gosh, think how few statments you could accurately make that begin with "Americans think" or "Americans know", and then consider that Europe consists of over 20 independent nations, and probably that many distinct cultures.

And as for the ideas that you characterize as European, well, I bet you could find someone who might say those things, but even as crude approximations of a majority mindset, they're laughable.

And what you still don't understand is that the single, overwhelming reason why Europeans have not supported America in Iraq is not anti-Americanism (although it certainly exists), and it is certainly not that they aren't committed to combatting terrorism (which they obviously are: France, for example, has been fiercely and effectively combating Islamic terrorism for a lot longer than we have), but that they simply do not believe that Iraq is part of the war against terror.

You know, there was an enormous, overwhelming international wave of support for America after September 11, which lasted all the way through the Afghanistan campaign.

Do you really think that (as our fault-free, "dolly-did-it" Administration would have it), its loss has nothing to do with our actions?

Posted by: Mork at April 14, 2004 11:16 PM

Mork, why don't you go back and read news accounts, op-eds and magazine articles.

Europe's "sympathy" was the sympathy of a victim. They may have cried at the destruction, but many were secretly glad it happened. Some were not so secret. Mighty America had been layed low. It couldn't protect its own borders. The Americans will now realize the folly of their actions, and ditch their cowboy president. Their go-it-alone attitude and militancy have done no good, surely they will now realize it is time to adopt the European model?

I want nothing to do with European sympathy. They can keep their false tears and false concerns. America will not base its actions on what is popular, but what is right.

Posted by: FH at April 15, 2004 12:03 AM

Mork: [Europeans] simply do not believe that Iraq is part of the war against terror.

That may be your reason. It looks to me like you're projecting. I've been reading the European press for years, I have friends who live there and tell me what's going on, and I went there recently myself. I'm just not seeing it.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 15, 2004 12:07 AM

Its not just that they don't think that Iraq is not part of the War on Terror, its also that they think that we intend to rob and rape Iraq of its natural resources. They believe that the US has decided to revert of old style European colonial imperialism. And lets not forget their visceral hatred of George W. Bush. 9/11 may have forced them to bury it for a short time, but it was only a matter of time before it resurfaced. And Iraq gave the perfect excuse to bring it out early.

Posted by: FH at April 15, 2004 12:14 AM

How, then, Michael, do you explain why a majority of Europeans (including those in the UK, by the way) strongly supported the invasion of Afghanistan, but opposed the invasion of Iraq.

Clearly, the large number of people who supported the first but opposed the second discern some important difference between the two campaigns.

What do you think it is?

Posted by: Mork at April 15, 2004 12:21 AM

Mork,

Invading Afghanistan was a no-brainer response only a reactionary peacenik could oppose.

Iraq is a lot more complicated, and the differences between the US and Europe came to the surface.

I recommend this essay by Robert Kagan called Power and Weakness. In it he outlines the differences between the ways Europeans and Americans view post Cold War foreign policy. He expanded his thesis into a book, and he received great reviews on both sides of the Atlantic. He is extremely kind to both the US and European points of view, and I don't know of anyone who has even tried to rebut this on either continent. He's an American living in Belgium. From what I've seen, European reviewers say he understands them perfectly.

Maybe you won't agree with his analysis, but I bet you'll find it interesting reading all the same.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 15, 2004 12:32 AM

So, as I understand it, you're suggesting that many of the Europeans who opposed the war accepted that the invasion would strike a blow against anti-Western islamic terror, but still opposed it because of these "differences"?

Have I read you right?

Maybe you don't have time to explain your reasoning there, and maybe I'll find the answer in the Kagan essay (which I'll read), but on the face of it, I find that proposition bordering on absurd.

Posted by: Mork at April 15, 2004 12:47 AM

Mork: So, as I understand it, you're suggesting that many of the Europeans who opposed the war accepted that the invasion would strike a blow against anti-Western islamic terror, but still opposed it because of these "differences"?

No, that's not what I meant.

In a nutshell: Afghanistan was a no-brainer. Iraq was off-limits for a whole range of reasons, some of which will be explained by the Kagan essay, some of which won't.

I don't think Europeans even understand why we went into Iraq in the first place. I don't think most Americans understand either, which is a tremendous failing of the Bush Administration. We should all know why we're doing what we're doing.

I apologize for being vague. It's late.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 15, 2004 12:58 AM

This just in: Bin Laden offers Europe a truce. Just withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan, step back and allow Arabs to wipe Israel off the map, and no attacks will be made against Europe. For three months. Maybe more! Such a deal.

Posted by: lewy14 at April 15, 2004 01:06 AM

No apology necessary, you don't owe me an explanation.

I don't think Europeans even understand why we went into Iraq in the first place. I don't think most Americans understand either, which is a tremendous failing of the Bush Administration.

Maybe it's you projecting this time! Isn't it somewhat bold to assume that the Administration's reasons for invading are the same as the reasons why you support it? There is, as you note, a paucity of evidence as to what they really were/are.

Which, incidentally, makes it more of a stretch to read all that you read into the absence of European support.

Posted by: Mork at April 15, 2004 01:20 AM

Mork: Isn't it somewhat bold to assume that the Administration's reasons for invading are the same as the reasons why you support it?

That is a perfectly fair question, and it's one I've asked myself many times. I'd be a fool not to.

Here's the deal. I've spent two solid years now reading the work of the neoconservatives. I've spent hundreds of hours picking their brains. I read what they say when they're writing to each other, not just to a mass audience. (I'm referring here to Commentary magazine, the so-called neocon "bible" with its miniscule circulation.) I know their ideology through and through. I don't quite share it, but I know what it is. And Iraq was their baby.

Why did we invade Iraq? The short answer: to liberalize Arab culture at gunpoint. The neocons believe in their bones that democratic Arabs will not threaten us, and I think they're right. They had better be, or both the East and the West have dark futures.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 15, 2004 01:29 AM

Is that the same reason why they strongly supported invading Iraq before 9/11?

Posted by: Mork at April 15, 2004 01:33 AM

Mork,

There were lots of reasons to support the invasion of Iraq. 9/11 simply created a new reason that over-rode the others and bumped it higher on the to-do list.

I strongly supported invading Iraq before 9/11, so the fact that the neocons did too earns them points with me. And this was back when I was well to the left of where I am now, when I still subscribed to The Nation magazine. (Christopher Hitchens was my favorite columnist then as now.)

Rent the movie Three Kings and find out why I wanted Saddam finished off even back then. My reasons have evolved, but my position is the same.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 15, 2004 01:45 AM

Funny that you should mention little old New Zealand. American foreign policy is met with a scoff and raised eye brow. A popular beer commercial in NZ if given the opportunity would have it “winning the war on terrorism – yeah right!” However the NZ Labour government with all its grandstanding about ‘UN resolution’ this, ‘The invasion of Iraq wouldn’t have happened if Gore was president’ that, keeps on pulling the proverbial wool over the NZ public’s eyes. NZ has combat troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. The former pilots of the NZ now infamous tactical air strike wing now fly with the RAF and RAAF. To quote an RAF spokesman “NZ pilots are flying Harriers and Jaguars.” Last time I checked these types of planes were not being used to deliver humanitarian aid to a cyclone blown south pacific isles. So I suppose your right you can count on NZ support, even if the NZ government says things to the contrary, popular amongst politicians these days especially considering that both our countries are heading to elections soon.

Posted by: KD at April 15, 2004 02:48 AM

Michael: Overall I agree with your assessment as stated in the article. I would however like to take issue with one minor statement you made regarding Thailand not being strictly an ally of America. My wife is a Thai national and I have spent a good deal of time there myself. My impression is quite different from the one you portray. Would you care to elaborate?

Posted by: MB at April 15, 2004 06:41 AM

The belief that everybody supported the war in Afghanistan is quite wrong; it's an artifact of time passing, much as the notion that everybody supported the first Persian Gulf War (which barely passed the US Senate 52-47). Read some of the Guardian stories of late 2001 and you will quickly be disabused of this belief.

The fact is that the same people who organized the US demonstrations against the war in Iraq also organized the demonstrations against the war in Afghanistan. They were less successful, sure, but they were still opposed.

The left has no institutional memory for its failures, and so over time the notion that nobody opposed the war in Afghanistan has caught on.

Posted by: Pat Curley at April 15, 2004 07:18 AM

Hey Michael,

with Osama cozying up to the Europeans, we may not need to protect them after all.

Now, normally we wouldn't have to worry about the Europeans taking Osama's offer of a truce too seriously. After all, he's a terrorist. But with all the Liberal loonies and muslims living over there in euroland, I'd say it's certainly an issue.

Posted by: David at April 15, 2004 08:30 AM

Michael, great article.

FH:

Its not just that they don't think that Iraq is not part of the War on Terror, its also that they think that we intend to rob and rape Iraq of its natural resources. They believe that the US has decided to revert of old style European colonial imperialism.

This feels right. Kicking this around, it also seems like the level of disbelief in American intentions in Iraq correlate to the methodologies of colonialism used by different countries. For instance, England's methods of managing and profiting from colonies were quite different from those of France, which were different from the Spanish model, etc.

In a nutshell, England was much more successful exporting her culture and values than was France, Germany, or Italy. Spain was arguably most successful of all, but for whatever reason the Spanish speaking world is much less monolithic in basic value systems than the English speaking world.

Interestingly, our strongest support in Europe has been from countries with little or no experience as colonizers, but with lots of experience being overrun by stronger nations.

Through the lenses of their own histories, these cultures look at the raw events unfolding in the middle east, and what we're doing looks like colonization. The apparent probability of success goes up or down depending on which lens is used. (England's people are mixed on Iraq, French, Germans, and Spaniards think it's a blunder). This also takes into account only positive motives on the opposition to "colonization" without delving into the competitive cultural instinct that has been apparent since, well, forever.

It seems to me that what the countries with colonial histories are not realizing is that America has never been fond of or good at colonialism. We had the Phillipines, and still have small territories scattered around the oceans, but it's not our mode.

I believe many European states are badly misunderstanding both Islamic Fascism and American intentions. I don't think Kerry would do any better getting the Europeans to understand the American perspective. I sincerely hope the Islamic Fascists aren't effective in getting Europe to understand theirs.

Posted by: Mark Poling at April 15, 2004 09:30 AM

Mark, I also suspect guilt of previous colonialist actions is kicking in as well. They see us doing something imperialistic/colonialistic, and they think to themselves: Here is a chance to make up for coming from a country with a history of colonialism. If I oppose the US then I can expiate my guilt. Sort of like reperations in the US. Logic and the actual situation in the ME play only a small role, the big thing is Guilt. And the Ironic thing is that the US is in fact helping to fix some of the problems left over from previous colonial efforts, and intends to leave the ME better than when it found it. But again, that would require them to trust Bush, and I suspect many would rather die than do that.

Posted by: FH at April 15, 2004 10:33 AM

Europe is diverse and is hard to pidgeon-hole. The relationship between America and the old eastern block countries is strikingly different than say France. Just a week or two ago, with great fanfare, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia joined NATO. I would characterize these nations as falling under MT's definition of "warm allies."

It also might be worth remembering that people in Athens were openly cheering as the twin towers fell on 9/11. Brace yourself when American Olympians enter the Athens stadium this summer. France will look equitable compared to Greece. 9/11 "good will" in Europe was shallow and certainly spotty.
Last year, Mark Steyn wrote a great article about the future of Europe. What he saw was that Europeans are in for a rude awakening when we withdraw our ground troops from the continent and they have to fend for themselves. It's hard to see how they are not headed for big problems. They don't have a military to speak of, they are next door to the Middle East, there are very large unassimilated Muslims living within their own boarders.

They are complacent, soft-target infidels, with a bad track record with a ME culture that never forget its own history.

I think Europe would love to become neutral. Hell, wouldn't it be nice to ditch world responsibilities and have other countries sons die to defend your liberties? But neutrality is only an option if you are not a target. I don't think radical Islam will give them a pass. This time though, Americans are going to be reluctant to forget how we were abandoned.

Posted by: bob at April 15, 2004 01:27 PM

The joke is that Europe is pacifist only because they know that daddy America will protect them. They rely on our weapons and militarism to defend them, and then they think they are superior to us becuase they don't have weapons and militaries.

I guess they haven't figured out yet that the Islamic fascist ideology is aimed at destroying Western Civilization, not just America or Israel.

Posted by: John Moreschi at April 15, 2004 02:19 PM

Michael,

I thought most of your article was spot on.

One question: Does your theory explain Canada? I notice you don't mention them. Is their sniffing at the US and refusal to help in Iraq due to the same dynamic as Europe?

My primary disagreement is that while your analysis of European press and punditry is almost surely correct, it doesn't deal with the low levels of alliance (police and military) that are quite strong. The press and elite in our country is radically out of sync with the 'folks', might this not be true there?

Also, I hold out the hope that recent events such as Bin-Laden's insulting 'truce offer' (which may be illuminating al-Qaeda weakness), Spain's 3-11, the taking and killing of hostages (that very brave Italian) in Iraq, and the increasingly maniacal statements by Islamists may in fact redirect European anger and stiffen resolve. The old saw about blooding troops may hold here.

I have watched as attitudes (mine and yours for example) have evolved since 9-11. It takes time for a society that was searching for the perfect, guarenteed life in the 90's to come to grips with the reality we are faced with. I am only a dabbler in history, but I believe the American public went through some similar changes in WWII to arrive at the steely resolve that demanded unconditional surrender and countenanced A-bombs on Japan. I think Europe is on the same learning curve, though somewhat behind.

Regards,

PS here an excellent illustration of "why they hate us" (something to ponder, but not apologize for)

http://www.donaldsensing.com/2004_04_01_archive.html#108203197806058317

PPS here is an encouraging story on how things are in Iraq from a contractor

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/001373.php

Posted by: jdwill at April 15, 2004 06:19 PM

I liked the article, too, Michael.

There are a few questions I have, though...

1. Where did you come up with "That's what most Americans would like to see whether they plan to vote for him or not" re a reestablishment of the old relationship? The Europe we stood with against a common enemy is gone, in spite of the fact that a potentially more lethal enemy has risen to replace the Soviets. The continent may lie to themselves about the threat, but that doesn't mean it isn't clear and present.

2. What profit will their embrace of socially - conscious pacifism bring them if they regulate themselves out of economic competitiveness with the rest of the world? You seem to think that Europe will muddle on forward as some sort of stable entity. I don't. I don't think the current direction the EU is evolving will allow them to maintain any semblence of broad middle-class living standards beyond a decade, if that.

I'll save my deep reservations concerning the effort of the EU constitution writers to amputate electoral control of the government for later discussions.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 15, 2004 09:10 PM

Good column Michael, but European leaders wont change their stripes.

Some European states will be more supportive, some less. But most worrying is the arrogance of the larger European states - especially France.

Their moral posturing on every issue, and self-inflated ego is not something that America will enjoy as it battles terrorism.

I can't imagine French leaders quietly remaining neutral. In fact to voice their discontent and perhaps in a bid for attention, they take a VERY hard anti-American stance and issue outrageous statements.

Posted by: Jono at April 15, 2004 10:20 PM

Clearly, the large number of people who supported the first but opposed the second discern some important difference between the two campaigns.

What do you think it is?
**************************************************
Afghanistan did not have a "Food for Oil" program generating juicy bribes for support.

Posted by: Dan Kauffman at April 15, 2004 11:06 PM

It also might be worth remembering that people in Athens were openly cheering as the twin towers fell on 9/11.

Some people haven't forgiven the US for the civil war or the 1967 coup.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Greece#United_States

Posted by: user at April 15, 2004 11:22 PM

Michael, I thought you'd reference Kagan in your TCS note -- the influence was clear. You added the likely "deal" at the end, nicely. I think the deal seems realistic from the US side, but I don't yet believe it from the Euro side.

But what if France wants the benefits of neutrality, while allowing the politicians the benefits of Anti-Americanism? What does America do, if anything, when France supports commie China against Taiwan, for instance (to get juicy development contracts)?

W. Europe is about to really suffer econ problems as their baby boom retires, unfunded, and the demands of more welfare/ taxes increase social discontent. The increase of Muslim, and other non-Euro immigration, has clearly resulted in more dirty housing areas.

Euro racism could well boil over to more ethnic cleansing, as a friend claimed to me would happen in the UK. The multi-cultural imposition from the top; the PC censorship where white Europeans can't talk about the real differences, and inferiorities, of non-whites; and the reality on the ground where non-white immigrants live -- lots of dissonance. And increasing rage.

I think some Bush hate is a temporary mis-direction of immigrant hate (Le Pen like, in France); and even reality hate against aging. There will soon be appearing in Euro politics articulate folk who are clearly pro-white racists; the immigrant communities could quickly become targets, where now they are mere hotbeds of infection.

I don't think this will quite happen; but as immigrant terrorists continue to murder civilians, no matter what level of neutrality the gov't takes, the rage can turn...

Posted by: Tom Grey at April 16, 2004 03:24 AM

Mork,

Clearly, the large number of people who supported the first but opposed the second discern some important difference between the two campaigns.

What do you think it is?

Because Europe (continental anyway) is dominated by complete idiots. Since when have the Europeans been right about anything? Why do you think they are right now? It is inexplicable why the Democrats and the left believe the Europeans are enlightened and sophisticated. Why do they want to emulate the idiotic Europeans? What a bunch of dupes.

Europe gave us centuries of imperialism, Marxism, Communism, Fascism. And now they are serving up "Transnational Progressivism" which is pre-destined to turn out the same way as all their other great ideas. The continental Europeans are culturaly pre-disposed to authoritarianism. If it weren't for Christianity, they'd be no different than the Arabs. They only enjoyed a brief period of liberalism post-war because we imposed it on them. Now they are reverting to form. Excluding the Brits, Europe is an opprressive cesspool which is why my ancestors fled from there.

Europe hasn't made a valuable contribution to political thought since the Enlightenment. It's been downhill since. Outside of the UK, Europe never fully embraced any Enlightenment thought as governing principles and Marx put an end to any hope that they would.

Posted by: HA at April 16, 2004 04:24 AM

Mork, it should go without saying that it is morally permissible to liberate 24 million people with minimal casualties. There is hardly anything to debate about the point. And yet the Continentals opposed it. I find it mind-boggling.

In a few years their businessmen will be flying to Baghdad on business trips, and their moneyed intellectuals will be taking the ancient Sumeria archaeological tours.

Posted by: Jim at April 16, 2004 06:54 AM

HA - on that level of argument, I could point out that Americans fought the bloodiest war of the 19th century, preserved slavery longer than any European country, slaughtered hundreds of thousands of German and Japanese civilians deliberately and indiscriminately and are the only people to ever have used nuclear weapons.

But I don't find that it particularly sheds any light on contemporary issues, do you?

Jim, I don't think it ever "goes without saying" that a particular nation has the right to invade another sovereign nation and impose its own preferred form of government on its people. It certainly doesn't go without saying in the United States.

Posted by: Mork at April 16, 2004 06:27 PM

Mork, I think it does go without saying. Because oppression of millions is evil, which goes without saying. Also, it is oxymoronic to say that "democracy is being imposed against the will of the people," and this is why it goes without saying that replacing oppression with democracy is morally permissible. So, the permissibility of the liberation is based upon these two facts that are conceptually basic. In other words, it is based upon two tautologies, or self-evident, fundamental truths.

Posted by: Jim at April 16, 2004 06:53 PM

Mork:

They can become Liberals and Conservatives bickering over points of debate on a blog.

Or we can kill them.

The driving imperative in their politically active classes is jihad. That's not just the terror networks, that's the nations that tolerate them or use them as proxies. There's nothing to temporize here. We can accept an existence that parallels what Israelis have gotten used to for fifty years, or we can force a resolution now before the weapons employed become more horrible than they already are.

Choose. I'm talking within ten or twenty years, of course, but those are the options. If we decline to accept the challenge of changing their society into something moderate enough to coexist with civilized western nations, then we accept an escalating scale of attack that will ultimately arrive at a final conflict anyway.

Hundreds of thousands of deaths spaced over decades....or tens of thousands now? I vote for Sherman's solution: make this war so horrible they will never, ever pick up the sword again.

Happy weekend, y'all.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 16, 2004 08:08 PM

TMJUTAH...

Sigh. It sounds like you're calling for genocide there, buddy, what with your "Sherman's Solution". If we really TRULY wanted to win this war at all costs it could be over in a single night.

What am I getting at, you ask? I'm saying we could nuke the Middle East in its entirety and it would be done with. God knows, Osama Bin Laden wouldn't hesitate to kill each and every one of us if he had that kind of firepower. I mean, sure, our econcomy would plunge but we could surely survive it. We put American lives first. Wouldn't this save American lives in the longrun? It would. You wanna go this route?

In your rage, I'm afraid you're forgetting what sets us apart from Osama Bin Laden and his ilk. We don't think this way because we're better than that and we're better than them: Morally.

We musn't merely shock them into submission. Their hearts and minds must be changed even more so than their bodies. It'll take at least a generation because it's the right thing to do.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at April 17, 2004 02:11 AM

Mork,

But I don't find that it particularly sheds any light on contemporary issues, do you?

It sheds no light when people like you state facts devoid of any context. First, the slave system in North America was setup by Europeans for the benefit of Europeans 150 years before the US was an independent nation. It would have been impossible to maintain our union and our independence from the European powers after the Revolution had we also chosen to confront the issue of slavery at that time. And failure of the union would have been a tragedy for all mankind because the US is the only nation in the world structured on the principles of the Enlightenment. The rights of Man depend on the surivival of our union and our continued adherence to Enlightenmment principles.

As it was, it took us 80 years and a terrible civil war to get rid of the slave system the Europeans burdened us with. Even then, the French were occupying Mexico during the Civil War and licking their chops at the possibility of re-establishing their North American empire had the Confederacy won the war.

As for Japan and Germany, the lesson here is that war is hell, and total war is total hell. Don't unleash the dogs of war if you don't want to get bit. We didn't start WWII, but we did what was necessary to finish it. Rightfully so, and without regrets. And how can you be taken seriously if you omit the fact that WWII was a war based on typical European stupidity that we were dragged into? Even the Japanese were emulating the European fascism.

Don't make points out of context. When you do so, you are deliberately obfuscating the truth. Unless, of course, you are ignorant of context.

As far as contemporary issues are concerned, as I said, the Europeans are reverting to form. Meet the new European, same as the old European. We look to them for enlightenment at our own and the world's peril. This will continue to be the case until Europe sobers up from its intoxication with Marx.

The continental Europeans never had real liberalism thanks to Marx. Marx killed the Enlightenment on the continent and the world has paid the price ever since.

Posted by: HA at April 17, 2004 04:44 AM

TmjUtah,

Hundreds of thousands of deaths spaced over decades....or tens of thousands now? I vote for Sherman's solution: make this war so horrible they will never, ever pick up the sword again.

Amen, brother. One quibble. We are talking more like millions, tens of millions or even 100's of millions dead if we fail to deal with the issue now. If the Arab/Muslim world fails to liberalize, we will have to kill it to ensure our own surival.

What we are doing now is more for their benefit than for ours. We are fighting to push them towards their own Reformation and protect their civilization from destruction. As Grant said, we could win this war literally tonight if we chose to. We have the power. The only thing that stays our hand is that survival of our civilization is not yet at stake. Someday it might be and our hand won't be stayed.

Posted by: HA at April 17, 2004 04:59 AM

Grant,

We musn't merely shock them into submission. Their hearts and minds must be changed even more so than their bodies. It'll take at least a generation because it's the right thing to do.

A generation at least. Our enemies are in posession of a truly powerful ideology that spawned a once magnificent civilization with 14 centuries behind it. They won't turn their backs on this easily. It may not even be possible.

We are in a civilizational conflict that can only be resolved in one of three ways:

1) They reform under their own initiative by taking advantage of the opportunity we gave them in Iraq. I don't see evidence that this is succeeding.

2) We shock them into their senses TmjUtah style. May work, but who knows.

3) We kill them.

I prefer option 1, I'll take option 2, I'll call for option 3 if the time comes.

These are the stakes.

I linked to this Berman article on another thread, but If you missed it, I'll link it again. It is too good to go unread.

http://www.wehaitians.com/the%20philosopher%20of%20islamic%20terror.html

Posted by: HA at April 17, 2004 05:08 AM

TmjUtah,

"Choose. I'm talking within ten or twenty years, of course, but those are the options. If we decline to accept the challenge of changing their society into something moderate enough to coexist with civilized western nations, then we accept an escalating scale of attack that will ultimately arrive at a final conflict anyway."

Well said. I don't think this is a call to genocide, but an accurate appraisal of the situation.

In their own words:

http://www.donaldsensing.com/2004_04_01_archive.html#108203197806058317

Asia Times asked Syed Munawar Hasan, the central general secretary of the Jamaat-I-Islami party in Pakistan, whether there "is any chance of reconciliation and dialogue between" the West and the Muslim world. Munawar replied,

"There is none. The basic concepts of both civilizations are in total contrast with each other. When I say this I do not address Western civilization as Christianity. I speak of a man-made system completely devoid of divine guidance. Our concepts of God, human beings, the universe, are totally in contrast with the concepts of the Western world.

Posted by: jdwill at April 17, 2004 06:33 AM

You know, it's funny to see the likes of all of us agreeing on the War on Terror. Most of you guys are Conservatives. Totten's a Centrist. I'm a Centrist Liberal. Yet, we all get it equally the same.

I'm starting to think it isn't a liberal or conservative thing at all, really. From all across the ideological spectrum we're coming to the same conclusions because we grasp the big picture of it. It's the Cold War of our time.

I wish the rest of America, liberal AND conservative, would start to figure that out. It's not a matter of fighting the War on Terror for the next 50 years or not. We're in it for the longhaul and that's reality. I wish our political leaders talked like this more often too, even using this kind of language: Cold War Language. I'd give anything to hear just one of them call it that, the "Cold War of Our Time".

Posted by: Grant McEntire at April 18, 2004 12:32 AM

Grant,

Of course it is not a liberal/conservative thing. Our enemies hate us all. They hated us for about millenium before Europeans came to America. This war has been going on for 14 centuries ever since Muslim began colonizing and displacing the Christian and Jewish populations of the Middle East.

This isn't a new Cold War, this is the resumption of the original World War that began 14 centuries ago. We thought the war was over when the Ottoman's were defeted at Vienna in 1683. But 350 years later, Islam has developed the new tactic of terrorism and the war has been resumed. This is World War Zero.

Posted by: HA at April 18, 2004 04:00 AM

Grant -

I pointed out options.

You suggested I might be calling for genocide. In case you haven't noticed, there's nothing politically discreet about killing thousands of people in their workplace. That was genocide The victims didn't die primarily because of their jobs or their last vote or their roles in world politics. They died because their killers disagreed with them on what constitutes civilization.

Go read you history again. We ARE implementing the Sherman Solution. We are targetting the factions of the existing society that have the power to compel or lead the vast, powerless tail of the population into acts of barbarism fit for a tribal conflict, not between nations.

I was born in Iowa, but was in Texas about a day later. The people that believe Sherman raped the south don't know history - and the Americans south of Mason Dixon owe the same debt to Sherman that the Japanese do to Truman. Sherman attacked the ability of the South to resist and by doing so killed fewer soldiers in a nine month campaign than died at Shiloh between breakfast and lunch in one day.

Truer words you never spoke about this not being a liberal or conservative issue.

I am fully aware that Islamic scholars were leading edge in 800 A.D. Zeroes are fine, algebra is useful, and being a surveyor I say the world "azimuth" all the time. My point of concern today, Sunday April 18, 2004, is that there is a political movement followed by thousands of disciples aimed at the destruction of western civilization that bases its legitimacy in the literal (to be fair, THEIR literal) interpetation of a scripture holy to a quarter, if not more, of the world's population. Those active thousands, or tens of thousands, are a statistical minority of a miniscule nature...but they control the foreseeable future of the muslim world by right of consciously executed power.

These people see political utility in blowing mens' brains out, or cutting their throats, on TV. They have killed thousands of our citizens, they have broadcast the same manifesto of genocide, world domination, and unbending commitment to their agenda for literally decades...and now they are enraged that we are responding to their threats where they live.

Why do they take hostages? Why do they concentrate command and control and logistics bases in mosques? Why do they shoot at us from behind cover of civilians?

They count our restraint as their greatest asset. They despise us for it. They have sought to sieze Islam as the definition of their agenda, then laughed as we tortuously avoid engaging them on the very foundation of their strength. We keep on getting told about the 'religion of peace' and warned not to offend 'moderate Islam'...but they haven't chimed in on our side to date (beyond making noise to keep us from looking too closely at our domestic contingents of radicals, such as CAIR) precisely because OBL had it right when he said "People will follow the strong horse."

Sherman served and lived in the South for literally decades. He was professionally involved with their military and social leaders and was actually serving as the president of the first college in Louisiana at the outbreak of the civil war. After he was appointed to command of the armies of the west he wrote to Grant at length on the strategies he believed were best able to end the war quickest, and with the lowest cost in human life.

He had fought barefoot, outnumbered Confederates on a dozen battlefields, and been beaten soundly more than once. His wins were always at the cost of thousands of dead, and three or four times as many wounded. The objective numbers of men, material, and logisitcal support meant he could win more battles...but that if the enemy was willing to withdraw, regroup, and come back again, the battles had no foreseeable end. He understood the culture of his enemy, and knew that what led the population was a minority aristocracy of planters, facilitated by a powerful but relatively small middle class of merchants. The vast majority of southerners had no material clout to speak of...but they had the pride of pioneers and of place that was exploited to the hilt by those in power.

Sherman also brought a vital element to his analysis: a personal conviction that the overriding consideraton was the preservation of the Union. He wasn't an overt abolitionist. He was convinced at the core that the cause was just - that only by remaining a single country under the constitution could the freedoms contained theirin be preserved. He crafted the Southern Strategy which targetted the sinews of the enemy in general but in specific the holdings of the gentry class that drove the war effort on the southern side. His 1864 and 1865 operations, culminating in the burning of Atlanta and the March to the Sea, were less costly in terms of combat casualties than any comparable campaigns of the same length throughout the war. He used his superior mobility and firepower to attack strategic targets of his choosing, not simply pursuing enemy armies, and thus destroyed the will of the enemy to resist.

A major problem we face here at home is that there exists a vocal, if minority of a minority, faction that believes we are somehow morally incapable of contesting terror because we fail some sort of social justice benchmark. Or because we colonized the Philippines. Or because we burn fossil fuels. I don't know where they come from, but they have declared themselves at best non-combatants and at worst defacto allies to the enemy bent on destroying not only our lives, but our entire way of life.

We have military superiority on any field we choose to engage... but if we fail to change the societies that have generated the terrorists, and decline to actively and agressively bring change to the cultures that have proven incapable of coexisting with western cultures, then we have simply won a skirmish or two and done nothing to decide the issue. This situation was distilled down to my "or we can kill them" statement. Imagine a block of granite and a four-times larger block of sandstone. Put them face to face and rub them together. Where they meet, both sides will wear away. Eventually all that will be left is a smaller chunk of granite, with a pile of dust representing the result of time and friction between the two. If we instead change the granite into a wedge and drive it into the sandstone, you end up with shattered fragments BUT there is still something left to work with...after a much shorter time, and with much less loss to both structures. What will become of our sensititivity to drastic action over the course of decades of friction? What will the tipping point be? What act of expedient madness on the part of terrorists will push us past confrontation to decision? Unlike them, our leaders are not the ultimate custodians to the keys of Hell. We are. Right now very few people would argue for a war of extermination...but after a worldwide plague, or a city killed by poisons or nuclear attack...what would the citizens demand?

Grant, I do think moral judgement is the key here. We are better than them at providing soicieties that foster human achievement and advancement. I don't believe any objective student of history can make a case counter to that. When the entire GDP of pan-Arabia rivals that of Zimbabwe, AND that pan-Arab region happens to be the home of the lion's share of the world's most vital commodity, what explanation can there be for their poverty, despotism, and barbarism other than they somehow missed the boat on civilization?

We are in new territory. If the future of the muslim world is indeed put in the hands of the citizens, and not dictated to serfs...what might be possible. We are all just humans regardless of our skin, costume, or geography. We need to eat, raise families, and prepare for our futures...what predictions can be made for entire societies that have never had a say in their governance?

If individual freedom and citizen sovereignty over government is indeed universally beneficial...if it is what the president proposed...then if given the chance, it should prove itself. My originating post was predicated on that. We have had fifty years' experience watching Israel deal with the Palestinian thugocracy, with no end in sight. If we follow the same parameters and limit our responses to internal security and limited attacks on specific personalities, what difference of outcome should we reasonably expect? None.

It is a pleasure to post here. It's a pleasure to disagree with folks who can hold a position BUT keep the debate respectful.

BTW, I'm ending a self-imposed 36 hour web withdrawl. I highly recommend it to those of us who may not remember the last time they spent a whole day doing chores or talking with family and friends. grin. Have a fine day.

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