April 09, 2004

Iranian Proxy War

It looks like Iran might be in a hot proxy war with the United States.

Via Roger L. Simon comes this report at Project Free Iran by Alireza Jafarzadeh, president of Strategic Policy Consulting and Fox News analyst.

For months, Iran has been building a secret underground network of military and intelligence cells that has put it in a position not only to challenge the U.S. and others, but also to gradually gain control the reigns of power after the June 30th handover.

By allocating vast resources, including tens of millions of dollars, to the task of building and spreading an overt network of mosques, local organizations, charity groups, medical and cultural centers, Tehran has also covertly created a number of new Iraqi surrogate groups, including the Hezbollah especially in the south. (This entity is separate from Iraqi Hezbollah, which operates openly). The group has been casing U.S. forces, gathering intelligence and building its military structure. It is headquartered in Al-Amarah, but is also active in a number of other cities including Al-Kut. Several Iranian Intelligence Ministry agents held extensive talks with Hezbollah officials in Al-Kut on February 15th to coordinate their actions.

In addition, Iran has formed the Nasiriyah-based 15th Shaban and the Basrah-based Seyyed ol-Shohada groups. At least a half a dozen other Iranian sponsored groups are now operating in Baghdad and other places.

Iranian agents have been commuting back and forth to and from Iraq regularly, using different border crossings along the 900-mile frontier with that country. Tehran has, for instance, used the Mandali-Monthariya border in February to send into Iraq a significant number of intelligence agents, who specialize in operations and roadside bombings against the coalition forces.

MEMRI (The Middle East Media Research Institute) has more:
A source in the Quds Army of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard revealed to Al-Sharq Al-Awsat(4) information relating to the construction of three camps and training centers on the Iranian-Iraqi borders to train elements of the "Mehdi Army" founded by Muqtada Al-Sadr. The source estimated that about 800-1,200 young supporters of Al-Sadr have received military training including guerilla warfare, the production of bombs and explosives, the use of small arms, reconnoitering and espionage. The three camps were located in Qasr Shireen, 'Ilam, and Hamid, bordering southern Iraq which is inhabited largely by Shi'a Muslims.
Also, Winds of Change reports that Radio Farda says Iran is giving 70 million dollars per month to organizations in Iraq, including al-Sadr's militias, with the objective of violently expelling the coalition forces.

I really don't know how credible this stuff is. But I will say this.

If true, this is a declaration of war by Iran. If Iran is going to send men into Iraq to kill our soldiers and subvert the nascent democracy we are within our rights to respond with force inside their territory.

That is not to say it would be wise for us to do so at this time. Maybe we should and maybe we shouldn't. At this moment, today, I would suggest we wait and see if we can get Iran to back down through diplomacy. But if this fighting in Iraq escalates and Iran refuses to let up, we may not have another viable option. We'll be at war with Iran either way. And if they are willing to cross the border and we are not, they will have the upper hand. That cannot stand. We didn't go all the way to Iraq to let Iran turn it into their fundamentalist sock puppet.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at April 9, 2004 02:54 PM
Comments

Then why did we go all the way to Iraq?

Posted by: Russ at April 9, 2004 03:32 PM

I concur! But I thought Iran declared war on the U.S. 27 years ago. Once again, we're too busy listening to the State Department's wishful thinking and sugar coating rather than what other countries are actually telling us.

Posted by: ken at April 9, 2004 03:33 PM

"Then why did we go all the way to Iraq?"

From a fan of AirheadAmerica.

Posted by: bob at April 9, 2004 03:37 PM

The first thing that ought to be done if Iran is indeed funding a fifth column would be to publish the findings as to what Tehran is sending across the border to aid the insurgents in Iraq. Should be enough to embarrass the Iranian theocrats, but if not...

Posted by: Stephen at April 9, 2004 03:42 PM

With the US forced retreating from Sadir City, it doesn't seem like the most oppourtune time to expand the war.

Oh, right - Iraq is not Vietnam because Iran is not Cambodia.

Posted by: Hipocrite at April 9, 2004 03:52 PM

Well I would venture to guess we went all the way to Iraq to be parked right next door to Iran...and Syria, and Saudi Arabia. Because we will not win the WOT until radical changes have taken place in the governments of all of these nations. It's a huge undertaking, true, but there simply are no shortcuts that will excorsize the metatastic disease that has its roots in these countries (barring nuclear annihilation). This is a chess game, and losing it will result in the loss of our physical security.

Posted by: Paul at April 9, 2004 03:53 PM

Hipocrite,

What on earth is your point? That Iraq is Vietnam? Okay, then what? We should withdraw and let them sort all this crap out themselves?

If you have something constructive to say, then say it. Otherwise, you're just a pissed-off reactionary ankle-biter. And you're boring.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 9, 2004 04:08 PM

My understanding is that there is a significant amount of dissatisfaction in that country toward the Mullahs. If we target Iran overtly, those people would lose support, and it would strengthen the Mullahs. If we do anything to thwart Iran it MUST be covert, or at the very least our proof against them should be rock solid.

Posted by: David at April 9, 2004 04:17 PM

Paul, you raise an excellent point. Simply changing Iraq would at best be a partial victory; what we want is substantial changes in Iran, Syria, the Arabian Peninsula, and Pakistan. All are happy breeding grounds for Islamic fascism, and that has to change.

Nobody’s talking about it, but there is no way all this happens during a single Presidential term. If Bush is serious about changing the course of history in the Middle East (and I believe he is) winning this election is absolutely critical. Ramping up for Iran at this time would put a second term in too much peril. Unless Iran does something totally stupid that war starts late next year.

On the other hand, I never bet against stupidity, Sadr’s recent actions being a case in point. And maybe Iran wants to force a response with the hopes the US will turn Spanish, and goes overt.

Posted by: Mark at April 9, 2004 04:22 PM

Michael, Wretchard at the Belmont club has a new piece out:

http://belmontclub.blogspot.com/2004_04_01_belmontclub_archive.html#108154458293981279

In it he mentions that the possibility exists that the US military has halted the troop rotation plan in order to have free forces to deal with a situation involving Iran.

Posted by: FH at April 9, 2004 04:22 PM

Iran doesn't have the resources to fight a proxy war with the US. They will run out of men and equipment before they run out of money. And remember, this is the Middle East, a hefty portion of that $70 million per month is finding its way into the private accounts of al-Sadr and his followers.

Posted by: Brandon at April 9, 2004 04:31 PM

Uh...Brandon -

They've been at war with us since 1979. They invaded U.S. territory and held it for 444 days.

We did nothing.

The only significant CIA report the morning the U.S. Marines were bombed in Beirut was that the Iranian embassy was totally and emphatically evacuated in a matter of minutes hours BEFORE the bombing took place.

We shot up a couple of artillery sites manned by Islamic militias. Oh, and we got one of our airplanes shot down. Other than that, nothing.

Hell, we even accept their refugees here for schooling...and then suddenly they go back home via Canada. Isn't that a kick in the teeth?

The Iranians are on the ground and engaged in Iraq. They know that if we win there, they don't have to worry about proxy war any more. Expense is going to be pretty low on their priority list.

The question to be answered is...will we do anything this time, or not?

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 9, 2004 04:50 PM

I was thinking this today.

Iraq is the war Jimmy Carter should have prevented. Had he been worthy of the challenge from Iran, much of what has followed might have had the air taken out of its tires..

Though, to be fair, there was a Soviet Union to consider, I suppose. Though that didn't seem to give the Iranians much confidence in the face of Ronald Reagan.

Posted by: Kate at April 9, 2004 06:22 PM

Before Michael leads us off on a march to Tehran, it might be worth considering playing this in terms of some "cold war" tactics. Since the mullahs are so unpopular and the boarder so porous wouldn't it make sense to start channeling arms to the students and political factions that are itching to overthrow the mullahs?

Posted by: bob at April 9, 2004 07:35 PM

Bob-

Good point, but who knows what we're doing covertly? I can't imagine the administration doesn't realize that the mullahs MUST go, and has some strategy in place.

We can't assume we know anything about what is happening under the radar, and that is how it should be.

Posted by: Paul at April 9, 2004 07:52 PM

A couple of things.

1. Consider the source of the information. From what I've read about this guy before, he approaches Chalabi in his crying wolf abilities.

That said, OF COURSE Iran is going to try and influence things! I posted on
SOME site about this, WAAYYY back in mid-May of 2002. This is OBVIOUS. Anyone who DIDN'T expect this, is closing their eyes, and simply being naive.

This was ONE of the reasons why the "liberal" war supporters, such as Tom Friedman and Kenneth Pollack, took a look at Rumsfeld's and Wolfowitz's happy talk about "being greeted in the street with flowers, as so alarming.

Listen, there has always been a complicated, fractious, situation in the Middle East. Good planning means you account for this!!

Shinseki was always right when he said we needed several thousand troops in Iraq to keep the peace. Not only to have more troops to keep things in control but to deal with the incursions of Iran and Syria.

Look, there was never a way to do this on the cheap. If you look at ANY of the war college papers over the past two years, there is a general outrage (muted of course) about the basic wish fulfillment and lack of practical planning for this invasion.

This invasion gets an "A" for some of the initial planning. But that was the easy part. The hard part, keeping the peace, building a democracy, patrolling the borders - this administration gets a big, fat, miltary approved, "F".

Posted by: JC at April 9, 2004 08:20 PM

I wouldn't call it an F JC, but it is a C/C- at the moment. If things don't improve, it could head to a D.

Posted by: FH at April 9, 2004 08:48 PM

I'm holding up my hand in response to the question, "Who thinks events over there have outstripped our ability to follow them for the next little while?"

I think that our media has gone out of their way to exacerbate the negatives here...as usual. I don't know how much more or less, because I seldom watch TV any more and get most of my info via the web. What I see on TV seems to be an awful lot of anecdotes intermixed with quick, tight shots of exciting stuff.

There's a grundel of stuff going on, and apparently we've brought the heavy firepower into play from the air (finally) but I keep hearing the same specific locations mentioned, and the number of casualties on our side seems blessedly low for the type of conflagaration being presented by our media.

We do have over a hundred thousand troops there, with their own armor and air mobility. It sounds as if the enemy has concentrated in five or six specific neighborhoods or cities...

That's it for me. I'm taking off for the weekend, fishing with the kids. I may not even listen to the A.M. radio while we're gone. I think 'what if's' and 'I thinks' on my part are going to be wasted bandwidth.

I would not be surprised to find out on Monday that (1) Iran has been officially tied to the insurgency and (2) that quite a few insurgents are no longer a problem, and outside of some inner-city neighborhoods control has been reestablished across most of Iraq.

Just my opinion...but there's been something nagging at the back of my mind for the last week/ten days about the approaching transfer, the sudden rise of al Sadr as a media subject, and the fact that the troop changeover has been purely personnel on the part of the outbound troops.

Their equipment has been forward - positioned in-country, under care of civilian contractors. We've got the better part of a complete Marine Division and an Army Corps plus a brigade in place...with equipment for how many more troops? Plus how much AF tactical or strategic air?

That's still a mighty big hammer, once you have a target.

Y'all have a fine weekend, and may peace be with you on Easter.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 9, 2004 09:34 PM

Michael, about what, 6 months ago, you wrote an article for TCS that basically said that Iraq is not Vietnam because Iraq is a desert and Vietnam is a jungle. Remember it?

I'm just trying to update for you all of the new and exciting reasons why Iraq is not Vietnam.

I'm also eagerly awaiting the "I was wrong, you were right" - perhaps the strong assertion that "Coalition forces hold 100 percent of the ground," deserves a bit of revision, given that we know know Coalition forces never even held remotely 100 percent of the ground.

It was a wise man that said he who does not remember history is doomed to repeat it. I think it goes without saying that the war-o-philes owe us war-o-phobes a "you were right, we were wrong" about the "Iraq has a number of striking similarities to Vietnam" statement that we were oh-so-derided for after Iraq was "pacified."

Posted by: Hipocrite at April 9, 2004 09:37 PM

If true, this is a declaration of war by Iran. If Iran is going to send men into Iraq to kill our soldiers and subvert the nascent democracy we are within our rights to respond with force inside their territory.

Michael, as I argued here in the past, all the countries in the region - and some outside it - are going to put assets into influencing the outcome here. If you go in with the avowed intention of remaking the middle east, you have to assume the middle east is going to resist. If this was not part of the administration's planning from the beginning, then they're incompetent.

Think this through. We've been counting on the support of the Shia to offset the unhappiness of the Sunni who ruled under Saddam. Through a variety of factors (including bungling by Bush's people), the Shia are now rising against us. They're uniting with the Sunni to drive us out. So, what's our immediate goal? Pacify the Shia.

Now, what effect do you think declaring hostilities against Iran would have on the Iraqi Shia? Does gas and fire come to mind? In any event, we have hardly enough troops to even hold the territory we now have in Iraq. You can bomb the hell out of Iran, but all that will accomplish is backlash against pro-western elements there. You might even succeed in having large numbers of Iranian irregulars cross the border (which we don't have enough troops to seal). And finally, the coalition will collapse as many countries will quit before expanding the fight.

I feel like I've said this a dozen times: This is primarily a political conflict, not a military one. We do not have the military resources to impose our will on the region. We will have to negotiate to get what we want. Clearly, we want to negotiate from a position of strength, which requires a strong military presence. But we have to remain realistic about what we can achieve with the resources we have.

Posted by: Mithras at April 9, 2004 09:45 PM

Mithras, we have all the military might we need. But we do not have the political will, desire or need to do it.

Posted by: FH at April 9, 2004 10:05 PM

Ummm, I don'r believe we have the capacity to take on Iran at the monent. Take a look at the map and the state of our forces. I can't believe the incompetence of this Administration.

Posted by: alan aronson at April 9, 2004 10:27 PM

I've always said that the left loves to accuse the right of hypocrisy for the same reason they accuse us of being chickenhawks. They're both perfect formulations that cannot be used against them. Since the left has no moral code, they can never be hypocrites. They can smoke dope, have sex with animals and lie, cheat and steal without committing hypocrisy, because they don't see these things as hypocritical. And of course, they will never be chickenhawks either, because they never support the use of the US military.

Pretty nifty, huh?

Posted by: Pat Curley at April 9, 2004 10:52 PM

Pat,

Sex with animals?

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 10, 2004 01:45 AM

"Since the mullahs are so unpopular and the boarder so porous wouldn't it make sense to start channeling arms to the students and political factions that are itching to overthrow the mullahs?"

So long as we make sure that the factions we support are democratic then that sounds like a good idea. But sponsoring insurgencies in foreign countries is always risky, particularly authoritarian ones like Iran.

IIRC there is one group in Iran that opposes the Mullahs made up of ex-Savak officers. Groups like that are the last thing we need on our side in dealing with Iran. Even if they managed to overthrow the regime I doubt that they would be an improvement in the situation.

Posted by: sam at April 10, 2004 04:35 AM

Congratulations fifth-column lefties and Democrats! The Cold Civil War you have opened on the domestic front have taken regime change in Tehran and Damascus off the table. The deterent effect has been squandered. Now Syria, Iran and Hezbollah are free to wage a proxy war against us in Iraq. Way to go guys! The blood, suffering and death that were inevitable due to your efforts are here. Was this what you wanted?

This is what I've been saying all along would happen. It was predictable with absolute certainty. The only question is whether this was your desired outcome or whether the carnage going on now is merely collateral damage in your quest for political power.

Bastards.

Posted by: HA at April 10, 2004 05:40 AM

The comments on this site never cease to amaze me. Michael posts rumors about Iran running a covert operation to take control in Iraq, and all most of you can do is look for ways to blame liberals for it, even if it means going back to Carter.

The question of why we went all the way to Iraq is a valid one, since the reasons seem to keep changing. Clearly the reason d'jour is not to spread democracy, since judging by your comments on the last thread, so many of you seem willing to settle for totalitarianism as long as it is a US friendly one. But to question our reasons for going in is a far too easy target for the knee-jerk attacks on liberals as ignorant peaceniks, a la bob's less-then-eloquent ad hominem and HA's incomprehensible screed.

So instead I'll ask why we went all the way to Iraq so ill-prepared, why we didn't listen to the experts on the ground about how many troops we'd need, why we assumed support from the "happy liberated" Iraqis and made no contingency plans for any other reaction, why we ignored the Powell doctrine and prepared no exit strategy... in other words, why the Bush administration conducted this war as if it were going to be easy when all available evidence should have told him it would be extremely difficult. And now why do you conservatives, who claim to praise personal responsibility and hate giving money to failing institutions, think the only solution is to reelect Bush to give him more time?

That, Pat, is what we animal-sex loving liberals call hypocrisy.

Posted by: Jeremy at April 10, 2004 07:00 AM

What is this talk about 'being ill-prepared'? WTF would you know about it?

What 'experts on the ground' anyplace could anticipate what would be needed with any sort of accuracy? Name any of these so-called 'experts'.

What 'Powell Doctrine'?--another stupid invention of hack newspaper writers.

Exit strategy? Did the US have an 'exit strategy' for troops in Europe? The US has had troops in Europe since 1941. 60 YEARS! ITS A QUAGMIRE!!! WHERE'S THE EXIT STRATEGY?

Posted by: eric at April 10, 2004 07:48 AM

Jeremy: ...we didn't listen to the experts on the ground about how many troops we'd need...

You mean the experts were unanimous in this opinion? Or do you mean "some of the" experts?

Mithras: Now, what effect do you think declaring hostilities against Iran would have on the Iraqi Shia?

Do you mean the Iraqi Shia who want Sadr's thugs wiped out and who do not want a theocracy in Iraq? They are the majority, after all.

If Iran is making this move, it's good news. It's a sign that perhaps the WoT will not require 20 years of ferreting out cockroaches. If roaches like Sadr and Iran scramble for cover when you turn on the light, you can't get 'em. When they stop scrambling for cover, this is good news. It means soon you won't have roaches anymore. Mark said,

...there is no way all this happens during a single Presidential term.

Good night nurse! "I think we'll need another five minutes to finish the WoT" even makes sense when the roaches like Sadr and the Iranian mullahs indicate that they want settle matters posthaste, when Pakistan sends its boys to die fighting al Qaeda, when Libya and Syria say, "Can we talk?" and when there are loads of liberationists in Iran. A string of constitutional democracies in the M.E. and terror on a leash in time for dinner - we should be so lucky.

Wouldn't it be wiser for Iran to opt for untraceable truck bombs in St. Louis than to ask for trouble? It means they can't do the former. They are "being suffocated," to borrow an al Qaeda description its own similarly constricted circumstances.

Increased violence in Iraq is very good news, considering that hugs and kisses all around wasn't going to happen. I thought my three-year-old boy would one day have to fight in the WoT. Instead, he may read about it in his high school history book.

Jeremy, with things going this well, would you reconsider your pessimism? If we're still this lucky next fall, will you please consider voting for Bush? It would be foolish to change anything during a lucky streak. For my part, I'll closely reconsider the Kerry platform if things go sour by fall. Neither of us is dogmatic or partisan, so do we have a deal?

Posted by: Jim at April 10, 2004 07:50 AM

"Wouldn't it be wiser for Iran to opt for untraceable truck bombs in St. Louis than to ask for trouble?"

In order to successfully invade Iran and get rid of the mullahs we'd have to be sure that Iraq is secure. Attacks on supply lines by insurgents and terrorists would screw up any offensive quite badly. Plus, people are unlikely to support another invasion if they think the last one has turned out badly in the aftermath.

I think that the Iranians want to keep Iraq destabilised so that it can't be used as a staging ground for an invasion. Though they probably also would like to turn Iraq into another theocracy like theirs. If they started setting off bombs in the US, it would strengthen public support for an invasion of Iran. If they can send Iraq back into total chaos, the coalition will have to use its troops to try and stabilise the situation. There wouldn't be enough left over to properly invade Iran.

Posted by: sam at April 10, 2004 08:14 AM

This calls for the sabotage of Iran's oil resources.
Iran's regime is resting on shaky foundations. They need their oil exports, and their political support from Europe and Russia to survive. They can't export war to Iraq and Israel without their oil income.
Taking away Iran's oil income would hurt Europe, and inconvenience Russia, but the alternative is letting the Iranians continue killing US troops in Iraq, continue destabilizing Iraq.

Posted by: RB at April 10, 2004 10:00 AM

I told you so.

Posted by: Brent Scowcroft at April 10, 2004 11:01 AM

Random thought: I wonder what the timing of this might tell us about the progress of Iran's nuclear project, and their plans for it.

I said the other day around here somewhere that it struck me as stupid for the Iranians to be making their move now, because it would be far more awkward for us if they'd waited until a couple of months after June 30th. Now I'm starting to wonder whether there's some tie-in with the nuclear program that makes this make sense.

Posted by: jaed at April 10, 2004 11:02 AM

The credibility of the Bushies being what it is, I cannot see them rallying the country for yet another war. That is the ultimate legacy of using the WMD argument to go to war with Iraq.

Posted by: Steve Smith at April 10, 2004 11:38 AM

"That is not to say it would be wise for us to do so at this time."

What WOULD be wise now?
Exposing the Iranian efforts, Okay. But that's probably not enough.
What do you think of Bob's suggestion "...wouldn't it make sense to start channeling arms to the students and political factions that are itching to overthrow the mullahs?"
I am not sure about the wisdom of such a policy myself especially after reading today about US-trained Iraqi policemen involved in attacks on US soldiers and civilians. I did not abandon the idea however of the West "interfering in internal affairs" of non-democratic countries much more. Eliciting debate with the opposition in these countries. As much in public as possible. Through opponents in exile for example.
On this front the US can find allies more easy too....

Posted by: Frans Groenendijk at April 10, 2004 01:58 PM

Frans: What WOULD be wise now?

I wish I knew everything.

What do you think of Bob's suggestion "...wouldn't it make sense to start channeling arms to the students and political factions that are itching to overthrow the mullahs?"

Maybe. If they ask for weapons to mount a full scale revolution, then I'll upgrade my answer to "probably." It looks like, for now, they are trying what worked in Serbia to overthrow Milosovic: constant and overwhelming non-violent pressure. Slobo was no softie and he fell this way. It might work. It's the place to start, and it looks to my eyes like this is what the Iranian opposition is trying to do. So gun-running might be premature. But I must confess I don't know.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 10, 2004 02:11 PM

Given the assertions of the war party that conquering Iraq was but the first of a series of dominoes to fall, wouldn't Iran's most sensible defensive strategy be to try to use proxies to prevent Iraq being used as a staging post for America to use against it. It's kind of obvious, when you think about it, isn't it?

After all, we did exactly the same thing in places like Cuba and Nicaragua.

Posted by: Mork at April 12, 2004 08:57 PM

I am an Iranian, not a fan of our government in Tehran in any way, but also not a fan of a US-imposed "democracy". I can tell you for a fact that any US invasion or even bombing will be met with a lot of resistance - far greater than anything the US saw in Iraq. We have a capable military, and when national pride and independence is at stake, we will use it, unlike Saddam's hiding its aircraft and tanks under sand for the day after. People in Iran criticize the government on a daily basis, many are dissatisfied, many have aspirations that have not been met, and many are looking for a solution. But they are looking for a peaceful solution, and evolution, not an imposed one. This same group also realizes that for what it's worth, Iran has been an independent country since 1979. We have achieved one of the things we fought for in the revolution. The other two, Freedom, and a truly Republican form of government, have only been partially achieved. But we have time, and we will get there. And we don't need any country's intervention in order to get there. Help, dialogue, and even guidance, yes; intervention and invasion, no.

Posted by: Bahman at April 14, 2004 08:56 PM

Its unfortunate that islamic fascists are in control of iran and most of the middle east but unfortunately this can be traced back to when the USA with the help of the UK overthrew the democratic president of Iran and Installed a brutal dictator .
Faced with a choice between a brutal dictator whos secret police were worse than the gestapo and the ayatolah its easy to see what interference of outsiders has done to that region to which the gift of oil and the ensuing avarice of western powers could be seen as a curse . And once you understand that islam alone isnt the reason why the usa is hated so much then you have hope that this hatred can be overcome but only by instilling democracy and western style education whereever possible .
The existance of a previous democracies in these regions gives hope that the people there would be able to have one again !!!!!!! And this fact gives me some hope for the future.

what I want to see is democracy and human rights education for the inhabitants of the new iraq .
And unfortunately this will take time and isnt something which can be done by any president over his lifetime in office or out of it .
However if presidents do their job correctly they can lay foundations for future prosperity .

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