April 08, 2004

The Iraqi Insurgency

Alaa, an Iraqi Shi’ite blogging from (where else?) Iraq, makes a lot more sense to me than most Western media analysts when trying to figure out what, exactly, is to be done about the insurgency in Iraq.

Here are some excerpts from two longs posts. Do visit his blog and read more.

If you check my fellow bloggers you will get more or less the feeling of the decent, helpless (or should I say hapless) majority. I can tell you without any hesitation that you get a much better insight by reading us than all the media reports. Please don’t believe what they are telling you about us. Some of the bloggers are Shiaa like myself, and some are Sunni like Ziad, and about this you will find our feelings are quite similar both regarding the zombies of Fallujah or the thieves of the Mehdi Army. My family is hiding in the house with doors locked and bracing for trouble.

I don’t know if it has been wise to open this front at this particular time. But sooner or later it just had to come. I hope that you all realize that this is the true battle for Iraq, and that the fight against Saddam was easy compared with this. Because now all the demons of peasant thievery and savagery have been let loose, and it will be a hell of a job trying to put them back in the bottle. But if you study history you will find that it is doable, with a bit of firmness.

And from another post, later in the day.
What has been demonstrated now is the almost certain scenario to be expected if the U.S. decided to suddenly withdraw and leave the matter to local hands. The Country will be divided to three regions in no time. Those who will be in control in two of these regions will be precisely those against whom the Coalition is battling at the moment, the third will be under the control of the Kurds of course. Civil war between these groups will inevitably ensue very quickly. It is now clearly demonstrated that there are no viable local forces to stand against these elements. In addition, terrible pogroms and atrocities will be perpetrated against all the democratic movements and individuals and ordinary people.

However, you will be astonished that the solution is not as hard as you might imagine. Aggressive commitment and firmness by the Coalition coupled with a political approach to be simultaneously launched to form a government that is more convincing than the present set up, and one that can be capable of exercising real authority. The impetus of military action should be immediately and urgently used to press for the political end.

This strikes me as exactly right. It also seems like it’s exactly what we are doing.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at April 8, 2004 09:42 PM
Comments

Too true. This will be the real battle for Iraq.

It will also be the Midway or Gettysberg for this war for civilization. Victory or defeat will be determined here.

Our March to the Sea will begin soon. The mullahs in Tehran are probably beginning to question why their access to Iraq has been so pathetically easy until now. Ditto for Bashir Assad and his happy band of moribund Ba'athists in Damascus.

There have been rumbles in the media that al Sadr's move was less than a complete surprise to the coalition.

I think...I think I may see some glimmer of strategery at work. Just a glimmer, but it's there. It's going to be an interesting week.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 8, 2004 10:25 PM

Get local mayors elected, and let THEM give the firm orders -- backed up by the US Army, but not led.

Posted by: Tom Grey at April 8, 2004 10:26 PM

Thank You Michael. After reading this I feel even more that Bush had better follow that little Jacksonian child within, and show he means business. If he was anyone but Bush I would bet against him, I've quit doing that. After reading the last thread, in which you handled yourself well by the way, I decided to bite my tongue rather than fight some of the more idiotic crap being put forward by my former lefty colleagues.

People who carp about all of our failures show total ignorance of history or just show plain partisanship dishonesty. I try to ignore it but as one still with a family full of liberals I long for the partisan lefties to quit ruining the good name of liberal. Wilson’s name is revered by conservatives. Hell neo-liberal isn’t even liberal anymore. First off war in and of itself is a failure of mankind to begin with. That doesn’t mean we should never fight wars, we have a responsibility to defend ourselves and culture. Even if one does not agree with this war, let’s at least debate it on honest grounds. The most successful Wars are riddled with failures, my hero JFK’s WWII PT Boat debacle could be classified as an event worthy of a court marshal let alone an event worthy of a medal. People who aren’t objective will never change minds. Calling the Iraq War a failure at this point is a joke and an insult.

Many of you are the same people who have never been held to account for every wrong prediction the left has been good at, starting with the Cold War right on through now. Baghdad would be Stalingrad…indeed!!! Thousands upon thousands of body bags…right!!! You guys, fewer Iraqis died in the last year even counting war casualties then died in the average year under the rule of Saddam, lovely fellow he was. Our level of death casualties was estimated to be 2-3,000 by most pre-War analysis, we are under 1000, yet he fails!

You goal post moving lefties, I have a number…your number, I should have left your ranks earlier. To you more intellectually honest liberals like Michael (MJT) or Grant, kudos for you, but good luck kicking against the pricks of the liberal-left for sure. I know I am sounding more like A.M. Rosenthal every day but I can’t help it, I feel like him I guess. I watch Ed Koch and I see the contempt in his eyes as well. This middle aged Jew feels that same contempt, the left sleeps. Yes TMJUtah I am Zell Miller with a yarmulke, I share his contempt, I will be channeling through him at the Republican Convention.

Lastly...To Bush, they think they have you on the ropes again, both the terrorists and the left, I wonder if they conspire, there goals seem the same. They are preparing for your demise, please I beg you to kick the terrorist’s asses back into the Mosques if you must, but then kick the lefts scaly asses back into their snake holes of slithering disgust so they may plan their next attack. At least I might be spared them while they hibernate.

Posted by: Samuel at April 8, 2004 11:30 PM

Samuel: ...both the terrorists and the left, I wonder if they conspire, there goals seem the same.

Come on, Samuel. You won't get a hearing this way. I don't have to tell you what's wrong with that sentence.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 8, 2004 11:39 PM

Aggressive commitment and firmness by the Coalition coupled with a political approach to be simultaneously launched to form a government that is more convincing than the present set up, and one that can be capable of exercising real authority.

Whenever someone doesn't know what to do, "aggressiveness" always sounds good. And please, "form a government that is more convincing than the present set up". Also, please make U.S. $1 trillion materialize from thin air. And a pony!

Posted by: Mithras at April 9, 2004 12:30 AM

Hey Michael, I have a right to be over the top every now and again, do I not? Obviously I was making a point with my tongue embedded in cheek. The left seeks failure at a time when the costs are too high, way higher than just Bush's fortunes. Do you disagree?

Posted by: Samuel at April 9, 2004 12:40 AM

Samuel: The left seeks failure at a time when the costs are too high, way higher than just Bush's fortunes. Do you disagree?

Yes. I disagree.

Here's the way I see it. Those on the left who opposed the war don't seek failure, they see failure. Only a small minority of them actually hope we get our asses kicked.

There are two reasons I think they see failure. One, they are pessimistic that we are even able to succeed in the first place. You know, Vietnam Syndrome and all the rest of it. Two, seeing failure whether it exists or not enables them to say "I told you so." They are psychologically predisposed to see this as a failure. You and I are predisposed to think it's working. That's human nature for you.

I can sympathize to an extent with the "I told you so" crowd. Iraq is a scary violent mess, obviously. Seeing failure here isn't completely insane. They are not hallucinating. (Those who say America is turning into a Nazi state, as I heard two grown men say in a coffeeshop tonight, are hallucinating.)

In another thread I told Mork I thought the occupation was going better than I expected. He was astonished. And there is the disconnect between him and myself. He is susprised that I expected Iraq to be a violent mess and supported the intervention anyway. He can't really say "I told you so" because I already "knew so." And so he's flummoxed.

Perhaps the key difference between Mork and I is that I'm simply more patient and optimistic. And that, like Christopher Hitchens, I figured (rightly, I'm sure) that Iraq would be an even scarier violent mess if we had not intervened.

(And by the way, I do think abject partisanship played a huge role in who supported this war in the first place and who didn't. Plenty of liberals have admitted to me that they would have supported this war if Al Gore were leading the charge instead of George W. Bush. And who can doubt that many conservatives would oppose it if the leaders were similarly reversed? But psychological issues aside from partisanship have pushed that issue to the side in the meantime.)

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 9, 2004 12:58 AM

Michael and Samuel,

Shortly before this all kicked off last year, a friend of mine asked me what I thought was going to happen. My worst-case estimate was that Saddam would catch our troops unprepared and using massive barrages of chemical weapons, we would suffer 5,000 casualties. Even with that worst-case estimate, I was confident that the US would destroy any force that opposed them.

I've watched military operations go to hell. I have watched stupid people in the military make bad decisions because they were arrogant and poorly led. I have also watched military excellance and competance accomplish amazing things. I never got the feeling that the military leadership of the US was screwing up their decision process at any scale.

The decision to put a premium on conserving personnel was not a primary doctrine in the mid-90's in the Army. That is a primary doctrine now. It has long been a primary doctrine in the USMC. This is a key component as to why the undisiplined insurgent fighters are even now being destroyed. They are bleeding themselves to death because they do not consider their troops important, they consider the fight important.

The insurgents supreme military accomplishment to date has to noticeably diminish Echo Company, 2 Battalion, 4th US Marines Regiment. One company has been decimated and may need to be pulled off the line for a week to reconstitute, if optempo permits. While it sucks to be E Co., 2/4th USMC this deployment, this is not a patch on what the 4th went through in the Phillipines in 1942 when the entire regiment was surrendered by Wainwright. (Only time in history a US Marine regiment surrendered.) That was a significant military event. This is one company getting hurt.

Posted by: Patrick Lasswell at April 9, 2004 01:29 AM

Michael

One, they are pessimistic that we are even able to succeed in the first place. You know, Vietnam Syndrome and all the rest of it. Two, seeing failure whether it exists or not enables them to say "I told you so." They are psychologically predisposed to see this as a failure.

Michael, is the left incapable of learning? This is one reason I left, an inability to asses reality. I mean 100,000 body bags in 1991, A repeat of the Soviet Unions adventures in Afghanistan by the US in 2002, repeat of Stalingrad in Baghdad in 2003. Yet they still yell quagmire and question others ability to discern? Are they that confused as to not be able to see truth. It is damn lost on these people that Vietnam failed because of this very attitude they have. I mean they (Democrats) defunded Vietnam (no 87 billion Iraq!) they call it Nixon’s War. Nixon was a scoundrel for sure but he had us at the doors of victory twice, Democrats wouldn’t have it. I would be sympathetic if they weren’t so pathologically sick, how else to explain such repeats of behavior. They would be the main cause of Bush’s failure and then blame Bush. You give them a pass I give them not, they are accountable.

Ignorance is no virtue, and excuses are lame when the ability to know better is there. Notice I always say left or liberal-left as to differentiate from liberal. I am not ignorant of the difference. I mean damn, I have a big spot in my heart for liberals, my wife is still liberal, I was one for over forty years. Some of my family members are liberal and some are leftist, they are not unique but typical. Their hate, yes hatred of Bush creates blind spots for seeing victims a true liberal should never overlook. My journey on the right has much more to do with priorities and methods of process than partisanship. I do disagree with you as well in the point of Republicans. I believe they would be more supportive of war in higher percentages, but in all fairness they are more Jacksonian by nature. Also Republicans are a little more accepting of policy they agree with even if coming from the other side, the elected Democrats would scuttle every half loaf offered if they could. Lastly when you say...

Plenty of liberals have admitted to me that they would have supported this war if Al Gore were leading the charge instead of George W. Bush

When my 16 year old daughter asked me if I would be supportive if Bush were a Democrat, I didn’t go whisper this over and over to my liberal friends that I would really be supportive if his name were Gore, I soul searched repented and obviously threw full fledged support to the President. If they say that they are derelict in there duty and others pay. It is in this I say I understand why someone would kill in the fit of passion, it is still condemnable. What this mentality embodies is the forgiving of things which should not be.

Posted by: Samuel at April 9, 2004 01:47 AM

Patrick

I agree, well said.

Posted by: Samuel at April 9, 2004 01:52 AM

Samuel is right. The left wants the US defeated in Iraq. The modern day Democrat Party defined itself during the Viet Nam war, and achieved it's greatest moment losing it. That's why Bosnia was going to be another Viet Nam. That's why Afghanistan was going to be another Viet Nam. Ditto Iraq. That's why the quagmire meme erupts again at every bump in the road. The left wants another Viet Nam so America can lose and they can be victorious again like they were in their glory days in the 60s and 70s. Why do you think the left leaning mainstream press chronically paints the most pessimistic picture of the events in Iraq? How many soldiers have complained that the images they would see on CNN were gross distortions of the events that they witnessed first hand? Why would the media deliberately choose to accentuate our difficulties in the war while glossing over or minimizing our successes unless they wanted us to lose? To anyone who isn't drinking the leftist koolade it's obvious.

I live in the Bay Area and know what the leftists believe. I interact with many of them on a daily basis. They see American power and "arrogance" as the greatest danger facing humanity. They openly mock capitalism, while suckling at its teat. They claim to be compassionate, but it is mostly a ruse to prop up their worst compulsive defect...a deep and almost pathological self-righteousness. Their egos are so heavily invested in believing that they are more enlightened and highly evolved than "those knuckle dragging" conservatives that they would rather die than admit that they might be wrong, and god forbid, Bush right. If America survives this conflict it will be in spite of the quisling left.

Samuel, I too am a Neocon. I stopped my affiliation with the Democrat Party on September 11. That day, even though I was a typical left leaning boomer weaned in 60s culture and politics, I knew in my bones we were lucky to have a Republican administration in power. Maybe it was easier for me to divorce myself from the left since, unlike people such as yourself, I was not politically very active. I have friends who can't renounce their leftist affiliation because they have invested too much of their identity into leftist ideology. What a sad trap.

Posted by: Paul at April 9, 2004 02:37 AM

Paul: Good post.

Posted by: miklos rosza at April 9, 2004 04:12 AM

The question you are considering is what percentage of Americans left of center are of the "seriously wicked hard-left" variety. Probably there is no way to answer the question definitively merely by giving impressions of what one has seen or heard. Gotta have well-done surveys and good stats.

As for the Iraqi bloggers, they must be mistaken. An article in the NYT said the resistance is overwhelmingly popular, since the reporter's anonymous source has a cousin who knows a guy who said it was popular.

Posted by: Jim at April 9, 2004 06:19 AM

This Left-bashing here is getting really tiresome.

Michael -- your "stop whining and tell me what you would do differently" question/comment is a fair one. My gut says bring in more troops, and also cancel all private reconstruction and security contracts with American firms, replacing them with Iraqis or Arabs, if possible. But the fact is I don't have enough information and understanding to recommend anything. Doubtlessly a sign of my moral rot, brought on by my infection with the post-modern multicultural relativistism. The people who I'd really to hear from as to what they think are our soldiers, our officers, and the typical Iraqis on the street.

Posted by: Markus Rose at April 9, 2004 07:02 AM

I find the "armchair generals" here tiresome.

It is intersting to talk about "big picture" strategic issues, but those giving tactical advice (or whining about the situation on the ground) are just farting into the wind.

Posted by: Ex at April 9, 2004 07:20 AM

One company has been decimated and may need to be pulled off the line for a week to reconstitute, if optempo permits.

Patrick,

I'd like to know what you're talking about. "Decimated"???

Posted by: David at April 9, 2004 08:04 AM

Those on the left who opposed the war don't seek failure, they see failure.

Maybe your garden variety Liberal sees it this way, but your typical Leftist standardbearer on the streets with placards and papermache puppets DOES want to see our troops withdraw in UTTER defeat. They are traitors, if not in letter, in spirit. These are the people leading you Liberals by the nose.

Posted by: David at April 9, 2004 08:09 AM

Michael -- your "stop whining and tell me what you would do differently" question/comment is a fair one.

Well, yes and no.

Let's say Michael and I are in a car. I say, "Look out, you're headed for a cliff!" and he ignores me. Over the cliff we go. The first half of the way to the ground, he refuses to acknowledge that we've gone over a cliff -- in fact, he brags about how smooth the road feels.

Then, a few yards from the ground, he realizes what's happened ... and he says, "I don't want to hear any criticism unless you have a better plan for what to do now!"

A nice sentiment, I suppose, but in reality our options are somewhat limited by someone's earlier bad choices, aren't they?

Posted by: Swopa at April 9, 2004 08:31 AM

Paul

Thanks for the support, great job! Yes and us losing is winning for them, I don't care what the excuses or "root causes" for their behavior, they are accountable. Their behavior and political ways costs lives and undermines US interests as well, and I hold my own past in full contempt as well. Like David Horowitz I don't view my past actions or current similar actions of others through the lens of excuse making, that is too easy. They need to be fought and exposed for what they are doing, it is like political correctness, call them on it and hold them to account for it. I certainly don’t believe we need sensitivity training for understanding the mentality because this mentality is purposefully undermining. If these leftists care to learn, let them seek true understanding, and not build fortresses of opposition while they knock at the very foundation of our Presidents ability to protect our interests. Otherwise tough love is in order... David Horowitz style.

Posted by: Samuel at April 9, 2004 08:32 AM

Markus Rose: Doubtlessly a sign of my moral rot, brought on by my infection with the post-modern multicultural relativistism.

Of course not. The point is simply a logical one, namely, that it is impossible to argue cogently against a policy unless you have an alternative policy for which you are prepared to argue. You can find this in "informal logic" textbooks. And, no, I'm not implying that you are illogical.

Posted by: Jim at April 9, 2004 08:38 AM

David: I'd like to know what you're talking about. "Decimated"???

"Decimated" means one in ten was lost. (I don't know how big a "company" is. I'm not a military guy. Patrick is. I don't know if he's right that a company lost one in ten. I'm just telling you what the word means.)

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 9, 2004 09:05 AM

Michael, good clarification of decimated.

Posted by: Samuel at April 9, 2004 09:24 AM

"This Left Bashing is getting tiresome."

Oh well sonny boy, you better turn on CNN or pick up the NYT and get your Bush bashing fix for an antidote. And no, you don't want to hear what the soldiers have to say, because they love George Bush and hate you and your ilk. Go to any of the numerous military blogs to verify it for yourself.

The Left has left a legacy of poverty and death in its wake unmatched by anyone in history. It needs to be smashed, not just bashed. It is a malignancy in our culture that if left unchecked will destroy us as surely as it's ruining Old Europe. And just like decadent Europe, they live under the protection of a strong American military, all the while seeking to undermine it. They are Gramsci's puppets. Useful idiots indeed.

Our enemies are relying on our Left to weaken our resolve and lose the war, just like it did in Viet Nam. They will, with plenty of help from the quislings here at home, do everything in their power to defeat Bush in November and elect, in irony of ironies, the very man General Giap said was responsible, along with the traitor Jane Fonda, for encouraging the NVC to fight on after they had been militarily defeated in the Tet offensive. The American left is directly responsible for the unnecessary deaths of thousands of American soldiers and millions of SE Asians. This is an historical fact that no amount of obfuscation and revisionism will change.

The repercussions of the leftist political disaster of Viet Nam bedevil us still.

And no Samuel, they don't wish to learn. They wish to repeat the same steps the have led inexorably to disaster over and over again, because their utopian vision demands it. Its up to the rest of us to fight them and their media cohorts as if our lives depend on it, because they do.

Posted by: Paul at April 9, 2004 09:26 AM

I think that part of the problem is that the hard Left in the USA does hope the US loses but does not see that as traitorous. In fact, they do not see themselves as citizens of the US; rather, they see themselves as citizens of the world. For them, the US losing is to be desired because US power/hegemony/imperialism is more dangerous to the world as a whole than Middle Eastern fascists/terrorists.

In short, they are crazy. Since we don't see the world in terms that are even remotely similar, rational discussion is impossible. Accordingly, I have given up on even trying to reason with the Left. I have not given up on the argument, however, because some reasonable people may be listening.

Posted by: Ben at April 9, 2004 09:39 AM

The Left has left a legacy of poverty and death in its wake unmatched by anyone in history. It needs to be smashed, not just bashed. It is a malignancy in our culture that if left unchecked will destroy us as surely as it's ruining Old Europe.

I wish I had your gift for words. Your post is exactly right. We shouldn't give them a single inch, not a single nible from our fingers lest they chew it off at the elbow.

Posted by: David at April 9, 2004 09:54 AM

A SERMON ON ETHICS AND LOVE

One day Mal-2 asked the messenger spirit Saint Gulik to approach the Goddess and request Her presence for some desperate advice. Shortly afterwards the radio came on by itself, and an ethereal female Voice said YES?

"O! Eris! Blessed Mother of Man! Queen of Chaos! Daughter of Discord! Concubine of Confusion! O! Exquisite Lady, I beseech You to lift a heavy burden from my heart!"

WHAT BOTHERS YOU, MAL? YOU DON'T SOUND WELL.

"I am filled with fear and tormented with terrible visions of pain. Everywhere people are hurting one another, the planet is rampant with injustices, whole societies plunder groups of their own people, mothers imprison sons, children perish while brothers war. O, woe."

WHAT IS THE MATTER WITH THAT, IF IT IS WHAT YOU WANT TO DO?

"But nobody wants it! Everybody hates it."

OH. WELL, THEN STOP.

At which moment She turned herself into an aspirin commercial and left The Polyfather stranded alone with his species.

If you can't see the FNORDS they can't eat you.

Ratatosk, Squirrel of Discord
Muncher of the ChaoAcorn
Chatterer of The Word of Eris

POEE of the Great Googlie-Mooglie Cabal and All Night Taxidermist

Posted by: Ratatosk at April 9, 2004 10:01 AM

For them, the US losing is to be desired because US power/hegemony/imperialism is more dangerous to the world as a whole than Middle Eastern fascists/terrorists.

But outrageously, these same people will claim with a straight fact to "love" this country. The country they claim to "love" doesn't even exist except in their wildest distopian dreams. And they'll actually get mad at you for "questioning their patriotism." I will question it until I run out of breathe.

Posted by: David at April 9, 2004 10:07 AM

David,

Echo Company 2nd/4th Marines took roughly 10% casualties. This is the definition of decimation, they were reduced by 1/10th.

I understand that this is a term with greater semantic loads than the reality, that is almost entirely because "decimation" was once used as a punishment for units that mutinied. The impact of having your own side kill a random 1 out of every 10 troops was fairly traumatic. The French did this as recently as WWI, "To encourage the others..." Situations where units were decimated by their own side ususally implied that the options were mutiny or outright destruction. This makes "decimation" a pretty loaded term.

Part of what I was trying to point out is that insurgents in Iraq were unable to accomplish more than punishment to one company, which is a long way from defeating them. Historically, US Marines suffer more than 50% casualties before defeat, and the number of instances where they fought to the nearly last man and still held are without number. I genuinely doubt that one in a thousand Iraqi insurgents have ever heard of Peking, Belleu Wood, Bloody Ridge, the Chosin Resevoir, Khe Sahn, or even Khafji (three surrounded Marines with a radio). Because they do not respect their enemies, the insurgents are doomed to be surprised by their capabilities.

Posted by: Patrick Lasswell at April 9, 2004 10:09 AM

Michael,

The manpower of a company frequently depends on it's composition. E Co. 2/4th Marines is an infantry company, it's full manning should be 6 Officers and 176 Marines. http://www.orbat.com/site/toe/toe/usa/marinecorpstoe.html

Posted by: Patrick Lasswell at April 9, 2004 10:18 AM

IMO, Alaa is right in the diagnosis, wrong on the therapy.

It is the real battle. it is the moment of truth. But not for the coalition - it is up to people like Alaa to decide if they are willing to pick up a gun and fight, or remain in the house barricaded.

You can't outsource a struggle for freedom. The mild Iraqi majority has to take to the streets and at least protest, but preferably join Coalition forces as irregulars and kill these "zombies" and "theives".

That is the lesson of history. There is none other.

Posted by: Adam Sullivan at April 9, 2004 10:37 AM

Ben: In fact, they do not see themselves as citizens of the US; rather, they see themselves as citizens of the world....In short, they are crazy.

I see myself as a citizen of both the US and the world. Does that make me half crazy?

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 9, 2004 10:40 AM

I see myself as a citizen of both the US and the world. Does that make me half crazy?

It depends on which you give priority, and by how much.

Posted by: David at April 9, 2004 10:45 AM

I say, "Look out, you're headed for a cliff!" and he ignores me. Over the cliff we go.

-------------

The flip side: What you saw as a cliff was and is, in fact, a dip in the road and a couple of potholes. Michael wonders what you're going on about, since in a few yards, we'll be back at our previous level. And yet, you keep screaming and screaming about how we went over a cliff and any idiot can see that, and what's more, the president not only created the cliff, but also made us drive over it.

So we get a few miles down the road, and you're still screaming about that cliff we went over until it dawns on you, maybe we haven't gone over a cliff after all. So you sit and stew about how blind everyone is, until another dip in the road occurs ... and then you start screaming about us going over yet another cliff again! And then you get pissed because about this time, all the sheeple are starting kinda tune you out and start thinking that you have this fetish for thinking we're driving over a cliff.

Posted by: Steve in Houston at April 9, 2004 10:49 AM

Also, please make U.S. $1 trillion materialize from thin air. And a pony!

Mithras wants a pony. This is good news; he is running out of horse droppings.

Posted by: triticale at April 9, 2004 11:00 AM

Adam Sullivan -

Two hundred thousand Iraqis are now in uniform as either police or national guard. Their casualty figures have not been inconsiderable.

The key will be if the provisional government acts to fulfill its responsibilities.

I'm hearing more references of parleys between coalition Iraqis and the insurgents than I would like, but I don't know enough one way or the other to know if the tactics are productive or not.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 9, 2004 11:00 AM

And then someone says "We're going over a cliff" and no one believes them, so we go over the cliff and find that it's not really a cliff, but the edge of the world, just like the Church had always warned, so we fall right off the side of the Earth and plummet towards the Void when Eris pokes her head out and tells us that she doesn't want us living in the Void with her and getting disapproving looks from biblke thumpers everytime she brings Yehwah home for a little nookie, so she sends us back to Earth, where someone looks up and says "Oh no, we're gonna go over a cliff"....

I like this, who gets the next section of the story?

Ratatosk, Squirrel of Discord and Assorted Unrealities

Posted by: Ratatosk at April 9, 2004 11:03 AM

Steve in Houston

One of a million ways to put it, at some point they need to explain why after claims of 100,000 body bags in Desert Storm 1991. A Soviet Union style War of attrition in Afghanistan in 2002, a Stalingrad style debacle in 2003 in Baghdad, and now Vietnam again, which is applied to every circumstance. And now they question others ability to face reality? Of course if they were able to grab the wheel from the passengers side and steer it off the nearest cliff, they would be screaming bloody murder at the driver the whole way down, but they could be satisfied in their delusion claiming that they were right all along saying like a wounded child, I told you'd be sorry!

Posted by: Samuel at April 9, 2004 11:09 AM

Even as a life long conservative, I am not yet willing to ascribe to "the left" the degree of fecklessness some do. "The left" is a complex as "the right," and not segmenting either in my opinion blurs the ability to discuss policy strategy and options.

As a Viet Nam veteran I never really believed the "Viet Nam Syndrome" was all that real--These 62 year old eyes have been opened: Tet, Cut and Run, Hamburger Hill etc--all the Viet Nam imagery is being deployed and argued, and the situation in Iraq is being viewed thru that prism. That analysis I believe will warp the thinking of both the left and the right.

Revolutionary change in a society is painful and traumatic: Examine the the course of any revolution since, say, 1776. The situation in Iraq is far more analgous at this point to the French Revolution as it is to "Viet Nam." I wish policy makers and critics can deal with the tactical considerations on the ground, while keeping the strategic objectives, and concerns about those, well defined.

Posted by: RogerA at April 9, 2004 11:22 AM

Reality? Who here can face 'reality'? How many of us sit on the Presidents private counsel? How many of us visit Iraq weekly to ascertain whats going on? When was the last time you were invited to a briefing to discuss tactics? How many body bags did you peek in to ascretain the type of person inside?(I'd guess that the type of person inside was a 'dead' person... but I could be wrong (See 'Count of Monte Cristo')).

Samuel, you have no more knowledge of 'reality' in Baghdad than anyone else on this board. You have only reports that have been filtered by the bias of the writer, reporter, editor and producer. On top of that you have your own bias which tints what you read anyway.

Hell, in Baghdad there isn't a single person who can explain to you the reality of the situation. Their views are tainted by their bias, be they right, left, Sunni, Shia, homeless waif or recently escaped lunatic.

Reality?

In this world, Reality is what you can get away with.

I once asked a man for the time,
he responded entirely in rhyme,
'It completely depends,
on when time begins.'
And this is the very last line.

Posted by: Ratatosk at April 9, 2004 11:23 AM

Ratatosk,

"Samuel, you have no more knowledge of 'reality' in Baghdad than anyone else on this board. You have only reports that have been filtered by the bias of the writer, reporter, editor and producer. On top of that you have your own bias which tints what you read anyway. "

That denies the value of experience in interpreting reports. Samuel is a businessman who has spent some part of his life interpreting what people say to him and making decisions on the basis of what he understands about them. I used to make a living interpreting the quality of reported sonar contacts by engaging in dialogue with the men making the reports. Claiming that nobody on these boards has the capacity to exercise judgement in interpretation is a sweeping generalization so broad as to be insulting.

Some of us on this board have based our livelihoods on our ability to interpret reports. Some of us on this board have risked our lives on our ability to interpret reports and had others trust themselves to our ability to interpret reality from reports. I was honored to have that trust reposed in me, and your accusation touches upon my honor. Please retract it.

Posted by: Patrick Lasswell at April 9, 2004 11:46 AM

Patrick, I am not going to retract my statement. I have no doubt that perhaps Samuel and even yourself are able to make informed opinions and reasonable guesses about what is reported. This does not however have anything to do with the key word used:

"Reality"

An interpertation of reports may be useful. If the reports are not terribly biased (difficult in our media no matter which bias you prefer), you might even get a good guess at what may be going on, but it is still a guess. I read reports everyday, these reports have to do with business, they are not shaded by media bias, but by department, management and corporate political bias. I have to read and make judgement calls on what I interpert from those reports. I usually do well, but I'm not on nearly enough hallucinogens to believe I know the 'Reality' of the situation.

Sorry, Pat, no apology for you... learn to question yourself and everyone else.

Ratatosk, Squirrel of Discord
Muncher of the ChaoAcorn
Chatterer of The Sacred Word of Eris

POEE of The Great Googlie-Mooglie Cabal

Posted by: Ratatosk at April 9, 2004 11:59 AM

Thanks Patrick!

Posted by: Samuel at April 9, 2004 12:03 PM

Adam Sullivan

I agree with you, why are the Iraqis barricaded in their homes. Why aren't they out in the thousands protesting the behaviour of their compatriates? Why do the non-Iraqi troops have to reliberate the police stations? If they don't want it, why should we care?
I happen to support ht e war in principle, but question Bush's team to do a good job. They made too many miscalculations already (we'd be welcomed as liberators) and I have no reason to not believe they are making them now ('the Shia' are on our side'). To complain about the job our government is doing is one of our responsibilities. Some of your posters take it to far in their attacks on those on the other side of the aisle.
Mark

Posted by: mark at April 9, 2004 12:07 PM

Tim -

After WWII, it was amazing how many French claimed to have been part of the French resistance.

The numbers mean nothing. In war, actions mean everything. Many of those two hundred thousand are on record saying they hate the occupation but have to have a job. Others seem to have been the missing athletes from the Iraqi Olympic Comittee - they ran like hell when Sadr's thugs approached.

War places choices in the starkest terms, and the actions of the participants lay their true beliefs bare. This country has gambled with its fortune and lives to give Iraqis the opportunity to free themselves. We did it for our own security. Just the same, the opportunity for Iraqis to be truly free exists right now. This moment. It may not exist soon if any of the Fallujans, Sadr-ites, Ba'athists, Iranians or the "Arab world" has its way.

Right now, I don't see Iraqis pouring into the streets demanding that Sadr go into exile in Iran, or demanding the de-baathification of the country. They tell us through their blogs that they want these things. Yes, there are very brave Iraqi libertines actually fighting for democracy - they are our brothers in arms. They are individuals that we can never abandon. But the "average" Iraqi cowers - making sure he doesn't get seen in public supporting the Coalition for fear of reprisal.

At some point men get sick of living in fear and take to the street - it happened at the Bastille. It happened in Concord, Mass. It happened less violently and lifted the iron curtain with the velvet revolution.

Wherever and whenever, it was the common citizen who said "enough" and found within himself the courage to risk his life for a better future.

This is the test. The test of the Iraqis. It had to come sooner or later. I just hope that Iraqi's realize that this is the moment of truth for them, and find it in themselves to act rather than counsel the Coalition on the proper way to shoot thugs.

We'll see what the choose to do.

Posted by: Adam Sullivan at April 9, 2004 12:10 PM

Adam,

Your comment was thought provoking. I agree completely that now is the time for an Iraqi to take a stand or not. Those who don't take a stand, will have to live with whatever Dogma wins out.

Do you consider the Iraqi's who are standing against us to be on an equal footing with those that stand with us? They both made choices about what they want their country to be.

I may not agree with either side, but at least some Iraqis are picking a side. If the Iraqis as a people, in the end, publicly stand up and say "Enough, no more silly Islamic Dogma, get religion out of politics", If would stand and applaud. I the Iraqis as a people stood and said "We do not agree with your western philosophy, please leave." I would stand and applaud, because they chose their own path for themselves.

Perhaps, in the end, that is freedom. Or perhaps, in the end, none of us are free and all of us are slaves to our own world view.

'Tosk

Posted by: Ratatosk at April 9, 2004 12:19 PM

Michael,

From what I know of your thoughts, you're not half crazy. The utopian left is because it is willing to stand against its own country in a time of national peril on behalf of an enemy composed of thugs whom the Leftists have romanticized into oppressed revolutionaries.

Posted by: Ben at April 9, 2004 12:48 PM

Tosk -

No. I don't put them on an equal footing in the least. Read my blog regarding post-modernism and anti-foundationalism. There is no "equal footing" here except to the most strained of eyes.

What you have are thugs. Thugs that dominate the world's history. In Sadr's militia you have the threads of racism, hatred, persecution, intollerance and brutality wound into a very tight ball. These are people bent on dominating those around them for profit as much as for God.

Average, mild Iraqis see that too. The question is, what will they do about it?

I don't buy the post-modern notion that "truths" don't exist and that cultures are deterministic of our viewpoint. It is all based on a linguistic theory that has since been proven false, yet the dogma persists.

It is up to Iraqis to decide whether they are willing to fight and potentialy die for a better future. Only they can decide that.

Meanwhile, Dan Darling at widsof change has posted some examples of Iraqi's taking up arms with the Coalition.

http://windsofchange.net/archives/004834.php

This could all turn out to be the true day of liberation for Iraq - April 9th may become a very meaningful day for them. I certainly hope so.

Posted by: Adam Sullivan at April 9, 2004 12:54 PM

Adam,

While I'm no fan of Might Makes Right, I believe that even thugs have the freedom to do as they will, (though it will likely get them shot). I personally would love to see the Iraqi people rise up and toss the Clerics and their millitias out for the dogs. However, if the Iraqi people rose up and tossed the US army out on its ear, I'd feel the same way. I don't care what they choose, as long as they choose it. After all, I can't see the world through their eyes, who am I to say whats best for them?

'truths' (lower case 't') do exist. In fact, I'm fond of the saying:
Everything is True in some sense,
Everything is False in some sense,
Everything is Meaningless in some sense.
Everything is True, False and Meaningless, depending entirely on how you percieve it.

Our brains are bombarded with information from our 5 senses every moment of every day. Our brains filter that information based on pattern recoginition. The patterns our brains hold depend on our environment, what we were taught, what we choose to believe and what we choose to read (sorta like computer programs in our wetware).

There is no single Truth that we can discuss in any realistic fashion, because you and I may interpert the same data in different ways.We have only the interpertation of truth which each of us have after our brains get done filtering and translating.

Feel free to believe your truth, but your truth may not be the only truth.

Ratatosk's Second Cousin on His Mother's Side

Posted by: Ratatosk at April 9, 2004 01:21 PM

Adam -

We agree.

The tipping point is, as always, will the Iraqis stand for their own freedom.

The men at Lexington and Concord were fighting to maintain control of their own family farms and businesses. They had a longstanding tradition of citizen responsibility and personal rights that they felt were being ignored by the Crown.

The Iraqis are handicapped by the absence of the same tradition. Yes, we see their bloggers reaching for the dream but that is a much more tenuous, anecdotal environment than we look back on...

But it's immaterial to what must happen there for this war to be successfully prosecuted. Groups like al Sadr and the Iranians and al Qaeda cease to exist in a democracy. Their only chance of suvival is by forcing us to let up and allow the old way of business to continue. We cannot. We must not. We will not.

We had the french show up and do some heavy lifting for us, don't forget, and heavy lifting it was. The french saw in our revolution a way to bleed England. So be it. They still came to the fight in a big way. Among their most effective reinforcements came people like Lafayette, who did share the dream. The Iraqis have us and maybe it has to be us who provides the brunt of the philosophical commitment for now. I can live with that.

Nobody ever said it was going to be easy. It must be done.

Anyone lining up against us with Islam as their justification is definitely a part of the problem, and will be dealt with accordingly. I see al Sadr as nothing more than a proxy for Iran. Taking down his faction may well lead to enough intelligence to begin our direct dealings with that happy group of Islamofascists.

"We will make no distinction between terrorists or those who support them."

I wonder if the mullahs bothered to jot that line down?

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 9, 2004 01:30 PM

The Arab doesn't "reach for freedom". He reaches for "honor". Iraq is case in point. Failed Oslo accords another case in point (remember Sharon's visit to the temple mount?).

They want HONOR, and to hell with freedom.

Posted by: David at April 9, 2004 01:44 PM

Arab culture is a shame based culture, not a guilt based culture.

Posted by: FH at April 9, 2004 02:21 PM

Adam Sullivan-

The Iraqi Shia stood up and rebelled 12 years ago and got slaughtered when we didn't protect them. After the events of the last 30 tears it is understandable that they are waiting to see who comes out on top before they declare any allegiance. A very different environment than the American colonies circa 1776.

Ratatosk

"Ratatosk, Squirrel of Discord
Muncher of the ChaoAcorn
Chatterer of The Sacred Word of Eris

POEE of The Great Googlie-Mooglie Cabal"

This shit makes you sound like some juvenile self-involved clown. When and if you eventually grow up your opinions will undoubtedly carry more weight. Right now they are a joke.

Posted by: Paul at April 9, 2004 02:26 PM

Arab culture is a shame based culture, not a guilt based culture.

The judeo-christian culture is guilt based. Just look at us, and how they use our guilt against us to try and paralyze us into inaction. "Oh, you can't drop bombs on Ramadan! That's a holy day!", or they say "Oh, you can't bomb a mosque, even if it's being used as an ammo dump! That would immoral!".

They know us better than we know us.

Posted by: David at April 9, 2004 02:41 PM

Paul,

I hope to Goddess that I sound juvenile! Can you imagine if adults were writing shit like that? Preposterous!!

Though I am encouraged that one day, if I'm good and eat all of my veggies, I can grow up and be just like everyone else on this board. I'll hide ignorance with retoric and grand statements and my opinion will carry weight. About time too, damn opinions always expecting you to carry them around. They should carry their own weight, NO MORE FREELOADING OPINIONS!!!!

Now I'm off for the evening, I'm sure there will be more Greyfaced Hunchbrained posts to giggle at tomorrow.

'Toskie the Juvenile Self-involved Clown (the one with the big red shoes!)

Parting is such sweet sorrow,
I'll just say 'ta till it be 'morrow.

(or saturday in this case)

Posted by: Ratatosk at April 9, 2004 02:42 PM

Ratatosk-

Thanks for making my case.

Posted by: Paul at April 9, 2004 02:58 PM

DAVID...

I actually agree with you, for once. They do know us better than we know them. Morality in Wartime can indeed go a long way to handcuff the civilized. But if anything goes, we're no better than them. It's the price we pay and it's worth it, going about things the hard way alot of times because we're moral.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at April 9, 2004 03:02 PM

Greyfaced Hunchbrained posts

'Toskie the Juvenile Self-involved Clown (the one with the big red shoes!

Parting is such sweet sorrow, I'll just say 'ta till it be 'morrow.

I hope to Goddess that I sound juvenile!

Ratatoks appears to be someone who takes great pleasure in his own words. My first guess is that he's incredibly narcissistic, but that might only be overcompensation for a weak ego. Either way, nobody would ever confuse his humor for wit.

Posted by: David at April 9, 2004 03:04 PM

It's the price we pay and it's worth it, going about things the hard way alot of times because we're moral.

Grant,

I don't think you agree with me because I don't confuse morality with false notions of morality. i.e., I don't confuse the facade with the actual building.

There's nothing in my book that says I can't drop a bomb during somebody else's holy day, or on a mosque from which our G.I.s are getting shot at, or that a retreating army can't be slaughtered in their boots if they haven't surrendered their weapons, or that we can't remove somebody's fingernails if it means saving lives.

I don't concern myself with appearing to look moral in the eyes of somebody else in order that they validate my morality.

In other words, there's morality, and there's the pretense of morality.

We're too worried about pretense. But I guess it's all about politics.

Posted by: David at April 9, 2004 03:12 PM

There's a lot I like about Arab culture. To start with, they are very tough folks. It comes from growing up in a tough world. I'd like to be able to go back there someday and see how they have adjusted to freedom. I've got twenty or thirty years to run yet, Lord willing. Time enough, I hope.

And yes, they are a shame based culture. Yes, they do have a different paradigm for honest dealing than we do. Both those qualities are weaknesses. On the first part, look what has been attempted here in the west with moral relativism and it's attendant PC movement. Rocky the Squirrel, whoever he called himself, up there, does showcase some serious issues with reality. If you are willing to deny any absolute in order to avoid even the possibility of making a mistake, you end up paralyzed. On the second part, the honesty issue, you really have to have experienced the issue first hand before you understand it. I worked for a Jordanian civil engineer in LA for about six months; funny thing was he automatically assumed that when doing business with another Arab he had to be on guard to the nth degree to prevent being jammed right to the hilt. Not coming out on the short end of a deal, but from being rolled like a drunk. The kicker was he would chortle over what he was going to get away with at the other guy's expense at the same time. Just wild to watch.

Yes, I inspected my paystubs closely.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 9, 2004 03:20 PM

Interesting how bad times bring out greatness in some individuals. If you want to read an inspiring post go visit today's Iraq the Model. Imagine how we would feel if our country was in the midst of the chaos and violence that Iraqi's find themselves. Mohammed gets it. We can't let these folks down.

Posted by: bob at April 9, 2004 03:29 PM

Tosk -

Regarding truths, the father of post modern equivocation said the following about 5 years ago - You can't deconstruct Love or Justice.

That was Jacques Derrida who basically invented modern cultural equivocation, and then destroyed it with that sentance. there are Universal Truths. I agree that they are hard to pin down, but they are there. You find them by working from Love and Justice.

The thugs rampaging in Fallujah and in Sadr's militias stand for hatred and injustice. I hope you can agree with me on that based on how Iraqi's themselves view these people.

If Iraqi's throw Americans out it will be out of frustration and wanting stability rather than a yearning for what al Sadr has in store for them.

Just the same, that would be the Iraqi choice. Given that they have the most powerful military force ever assembled at their disposal should they chose the road to democracy, chosing the traditional path of tyranny would be a very poor choice indeed. I have no moral qualms with making or defending that assertion.

Posted by: Adam Sullivan at April 9, 2004 03:49 PM

paul -

I agree that both shiites and kurds rebelled at our urging and we abandoned them. I agree that Iraqi's have had a basis for being suspect of our motives. yet time is running out for them. War is always reduced to wills - the will to fight, and the imposition of will on the other.

American support for the war will evaporate if Iraqi's prove indifferent to democracy. Sadly, it will embolden those who engage in cultural condescention.

I am and have been pro-war. I am not, however, pro violence for the hell of it. If Iraq doesn't assert a democratic future (their choice, not ours) then we have to shift to plan "b". not something I am advocating, but something staring all of us in the face.

Posted by: Adam Sullivan at April 9, 2004 04:11 PM

Adam-

It's not just that we abandonded them...for years they have lived under the fear of the worst reprisals imaginable were they to cast their lot with the "wrong" side, i.e. the side that did not have power.

I can only make an educated guess, but I suspect that once they truly feel they can openly support democracy without incuring the wrath of Baathists or theocrats they will do so. I say we wait until we wipe out the insurgents and then see how the Iraqi people feel.

Posted by: Paul at April 9, 2004 06:24 PM

Interesting to see Radatosk blandly (blindly?) defend perspectivism, which has been filtered through Foucault and Derrida but ultimately originates in Nietzsche. It leads (as John Moore has pointed out elsewhere) to such conceits as "feminist physics."

It can also lead to Holocaust denial, to choose the most easy, inflammatory example that comes to mind.

Posted by: miklos rosza at April 10, 2004 12:22 AM

This has been a fascinating trip down the rabbit hole.
The gist of it all - if there is one - is that if this war ends up badly, it will be the fault of the very people who cautioned against it.
"No-sacrifice, can't-lose" war advocacy. It's the greatest thing since sliced bread.

Posted by: WillieStyle at April 10, 2004 12:05 PM

Williestyle: The gist of it all - if there is one - is that if this war ends up badly, it will be the fault of the very people who cautioned against it.

Only if you yank us out in the middle of the fight and make us lose. Otherwise, no, I would not blame you.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 10, 2004 06:48 PM

In another thread I told Mork I thought the occupation was going better than I expected. He was astonished. And there is the disconnect between him and myself. He is susprised that I expected Iraq to be a violent mess and supported the intervention anyway. He can't really say "I told you so" because I already "knew so." And so he's flummoxed.

Come on Michael, that's a cheap debating trick. To the extent that I was "flummoxed" by your response, it certainly wasn't because I found myself unable to say "I told you so", which (a) I would take absolutely no pleasure in doing, and (b) I couldn't do with a straight face anyway, because I didn't: as I told you before, I supported the war at the time ... it's just that the beliefs and assumptions that led me to support it have turned out to be so thoroughly incorrect that I have no choice to admit that I was mistaken.

My astonishment was simply that I can't see any way to conclude that the benefits of the war to America have outweighed the costs. Therefore, if you thought the costs would be higher and the benefits no greater it boggles my mind just why the hell you thought it was a good idea at the time.

Also - do you know much about this blogger you've linked to? I am deeply skeptical that he/she is Iraqi. I saw nothing in his/her archive that indicated any local knowledge or first-hand experience of the war or occupation, or anything to do with daily life in Iraq, for that matter. All I really saw was a neatly crafted version of what a war-blogger would fantasize that a liberated Iraqi might have to say.

Also, he/she uses American spelling. Is that likely?

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