April 06, 2004

The Id of the Right

The insurgency in Iraq is getting nasty.

Baathists killed 12 US Marines in Ramadi. And Shi’ite fanatics took over Najaf.

These people are idiots. They are minority factions disliked by the majority. Now they’re going to get themselves killed and conveniently remove themselves from the scene. To paraphrase Christopher Hitchens, if they want to be martyrs, we’re here to help.

That said, thank heaven John O’Sullivan at National Review is not in charge. According to him, one way of dealing with this problem is

…to establish order by bringing in massive numbers of U.S. and allied troops, imposing a regime of surveillance and supervision that is widespread and almost totalitarian but not brutal, using both human and technical intelligence to track down and remove the terrorists from society, and settling down to stay in Iraq for at least 30 years. In that way terrorist resistance might be administratively smothered over time. But since the U.S. has decided to reduce troop levels and hand over power to Iraqis in three months, this option has been foreclosed. [Emphasis added.]
Mr. O’Sullivan is the id of the right. I’m surprised to see that mainstream conservatives still think totalitarianism in other countries, so long as it serves our own ends, is something to be patted on the back. But apparently it is so.

Look. If the US is going to go around setting up totalitarian systems in other people’s countries, (“not brutal” or otherwise) you can count me out right now. I’ll have nothing whatever to do with it. I’ll go back to the left because the left would be right.

I don’t believe for a minute that O’Sullivan was being sloppy when he wrote “totalitarian.” When he saw the word on his screen he must have paused. I mean, come on, is there any more loaded word in our political lexicon? He meant it very deliberately. Someone once said a political gaffe is when a politician accidentally tells the truth. The same goes for pundits.

O’Sullivan just can’t seem to help himself. He looks at the same nasty insurgency in Iraq that I’m seeing. I think to myself: They’re a threat to democracy. O’Sullivan thinks: Impose totalitarianism. A hundred bucks says he thinks General Augusto Pinochet, who promised to strangle even the memory of democracy in Chile, is a hero.

It’s one thing to do business with a dictatorship that is already in place. We worked with Stalin against Hitler and with Uzbekistan's Karimov against the Taliban. But you don’t have to be an Allendista or a cheerleader for Islamofascist nutjobs to see that imposing a totalitarian regime on foreigners at gunpoint is not only profoundly immoral but a stain on our flag.

If O'Sullivan is the id of the right, Wretchard at The Belmont Club is its ego. He gets it.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at April 6, 2004 11:11 PM
Comments

Uh, one thing to remember is that what he actually wrote was, "almost totalitarian but not brutal,".

Now, how we would achieve such a state of surveilance I regard as a seperate question that arouses my scepticism. But if you're going to jump on someone for their choice of words I think it a bit fair if you try to quote the exact phrase. I'll admit that if he'd said "make a larger investment in humint" I'd be somewhat more inclined to agree with him but I suspect that what he wrote was his way of saying that with a little hyperbole thrown in.

[Shrugs]

But any conservative who pays too much attention to opinion journals isn't much of a conservative anyway! ^_~

Posted by: The Snark Who Was Really a Boojum at April 7, 2004 01:01 AM

Hmmm ... of all the reasons we supposedly went to war, the only one left standing is the possibility that we can influence the development of the Middle East by creating an open society in its midst.

If that reason were to go by the wayside, what's the next justification?

Posted by: Mork at April 7, 2004 01:15 AM

Michael...

Oh yes, my friend, Kissingerian "realism" is very much alive and well on the Right. But it's important to note the distinction between the conservatives and the NeoCons. The NeoCons have utterly denounced this kind of crap and are now, thankfully, in the majority. Their principled idealism stands in stark contrast.

Funny, me defending the neo-conservatives. But when they're right they're right, or uh, when they're correct they're correct I should say. And I would argue that they're more Left than Right on defense, anyway: At least in so much as fighting tyranny for the sake of human rights goes. Left and Right have been jumbled up a bit since 9/11. But I digress.

O'Sullivan is clearly not "the kind of right-winger" this liberal "wouldn't be embarrassed to have over for cocktails".

Posted by: Grant McEntire at April 7, 2004 01:18 AM

Honestly, Michael, we need to start taking this a bit more serious. We can't keep treating Iraq as if it's Los Angeles.

From the CSMonitor.

"If I kill someone from your tribe, I know another member of my tribe will definitely be killed,'' he says. "But people in Fallujah have learned that when they kill Americans nothing much happens. They learned that the Americans have different values, and this makes killing an American less dangerous than killing someone from another tribe."

How on earth do we deal with something like that? Of course we shouldn't go about committing retribution killings, but how do you get them to respect us? Iraq 2004 is not Germany 1945. It's not even the Philippines 1901 for that matter. This policy of restraint is killing more American and Coalition troops than it should.

This is beyond frustrating...

Posted by: Cody at April 7, 2004 01:20 AM

MORK...

The humanitarian cause has always been the strongest and only case. And it's more than case enough. If "it", meaning the freedom of 25 million some odd people, goes by the wayside...then we've failed. Period.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at April 7, 2004 01:21 AM

MJT -

I have to agree with you on this.

Not quite what I would expect from NRO. I imagine The Corner will have some action to follow.

We are scheduled to turn over civil control to the Iraqis to the Iraqis to impress upon that part of the population that is basically hostage to history but not actively bad guys that WE AREN'T STAYING. Once Iraqi police, courts, and most of all Iraqi government is in charge, we can start counting down the days we will have to maintain a Corps sized presence there.

Following Mr. O'Sullivan's formula, we'd be building guard shacks and towers in every mideast country.

I don't know if you could label him the id, though. My id tells me that if we stack up enough of the actively homicidal actors and treat the rest with dignity, respect, and demonstrate an honest effort to NOT walk away after simply toppling one dictator in preparation for another...

this might just work.

It's still up in the air. Who will win the race? A bunch of gun toting thugs with Kerry '04 stickers on their prayer rugs, or the Iraqi people? Time will tell.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 7, 2004 01:27 AM

"a bunch of gun toting thugs with Kerry '04 stickers on their prayer rugs"...

I'm so fed up with reading mindless generalized crap like this here I could pull my hair out. Please, for the love of all things rational, don't say stupid shit like this anymore. Kerry might not be your ideal candidate. He's most assuredly not mine. But he's not a fucking terrorist.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at April 7, 2004 01:49 AM

Grant -

The Humanitarian Case at issue here is not spreading democracy because it's a good thing to do for the Iraqis. Sorry about that.

It's the ONLY way that we'll remove that country from the swamp. That it is an act approaching grace is a benefit, and a laudable one, but this war is being fought for U.S. interests...

which happen to demand just wars under accepted international protocols, and are subject to the review and even rejection by the electorate. The key here is not letting up before the necessary work is done. We deposed an odius dictator. There are an easy dozen or so other tinpots approaching his level of debasement scattered across the globe, but none have managed to be in direct conflict with so many neighbors, and the international community, at the same time.

His existence may well be remembered as the force that ended the U.N. as an international body; hearings in the Senate on oil for food, and in the house soon, too. All those starving children and crumbled infrastructure that were slapped up against our (the U.S., but always Bush1's and Bush2's head, strangely enough) may have wasted away because of the U.N. doing business on the side. Wouldn't that be a kick in the head?

Well, another one, at least.

Cody -

The way you change them is to kill enough of them in battle to cow the rest. You keep pressure on until they either give up or die. If that sounds harsh, just remember that's exactly how it worked the last time we tried really fighting a war. It's also the local modus operandi going back about four millenia. The ones we will end up having to kill are probably not Rotarians in embryo...so their departure will be a plus for the nascent democracy, too.

I regret that we were not able to inject a Corps ground assault via Turkey. We would probably have already dealt with the leadership of the mob we face now.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 7, 2004 01:52 AM

John Kerry helped lose one war for personal gain, and had a damn good run at keeping the Sovs in business. I didn't call him a terrorist. I didn't even imply it. You go and poll the editorial board of the New York Times who they are hoping wins, then drop into the Grand Mosque of Tehran, and check back in.

He wants to be president NOW. His past votes and policies should have kept him from being able to survive the primaries in an era such as this but he was grasped at as the the most electable of a very sad lot.

I don't think he's merely a poor choice of candidate. I believe his past votes and current flat lies out on the trail make him unfit for any position of responsibility. A guy who thought that intelligence was overfunded between 1992 and 1998? If John Kerry had been president in 1992, our troops would be fighting without individual night vision, the digital battlefield would still be a science fiction prop, and our theater missile defenses would be on paper in some Pentagon dead-letter file.

If he'd been president in 1982, we'd still be dealing with the Sov's, and they'd be ONLY too happy to use Islamofascists as proxies against us. I bet they'd be happy to drop supplies and MANPADS to mulhajedeen ANYWHERE...just like we did to them under Reagan.

I'd like to see him fall short this time, especially with his buddy Ted out there making statements that can only be interpeted as disengenuous and calculated to pander to the ignorance of too many citizens in this country. This isn't Vietnam. If we had invaded Hanoi in 1964 we could well have kissed the Sov's goodbye in the seventies...but that's too far back to make that broad a judgement. We sure as hell wouldn't have bred a generation of Americans that forgot evil appeased is just tragedy deferred.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 7, 2004 02:11 AM

Nope. You're right. You didn't exactly call him a terrorist. You simply implied that he's recieving support from them.

As I'm sure he would much more prefer Bush over Kerry, Bush is recieving support from the ghost of Timothy McVeigh. There. We're even.

Two laughably irrational comments cancel each other out. Too bad I'd never seriously insinuate something like this. Do you get my point, now?

Posted by: Grant McEntire at April 7, 2004 02:21 AM

I guess that what I'm getting at is simply this...

To say that the terrorists would probably prefer having to deal with Kerry than with Bush means that John Kerry is in cahouts with terrorists and that a vote for John Kerry is a vote for the terrorists...is absolutely illogical.

I'd rather deal with Kerry than with Bush when it comes to health care, jobs, and gay rights. But Kerry is the choice of "prayer rug" praying terrorists so if I support him for domestic reasons I must be supporting the terrorists, huh?

Posted by: Grant McEntire at April 7, 2004 02:35 AM

There really are some conservatives who believe that authoritarians like Pinochet and Franco were, in the long run, good for their nations because they established the stability and economic freedom necessary for democracy to flourish. The thinking is, if I understand correctly, that you can't go straight from totalitarianism to democracy in one go, you have to take it one step at a time and it can often take a long time.

Posted by: Joe at April 7, 2004 02:38 AM

"They are minority factions disliked by the majority. Now they’re going to get themselves killed and conveniently remove themselves from the scene."

So this is all good news coming out of Iraq?
Really?

I'm so glad, because for a moment there, I was sort of worried. Upset even.

Thank God that the cup is still half-full.

Posted by: George Cerny at April 7, 2004 02:51 AM

As a righty, I must say that this suggestion is way overboard. Back in the day when we had to fight the Communist, maybe I could agree to a point. Not to the point where our puppet government was brutal.

Here, Democracy will take hold and prove all these racist lefties what idiots they are. I swear if I hear one more lefty say, they can not have Democracy, they are too backward, to tribal driven. I am going to scream.

What happened to the left, they used to think that individuality was a good thing. That all people were basically good. That the Government was the man. Now they want more government, they do not like individuality and that people are stupid and sheep.

Bah.

Posted by: James Stephenson at April 7, 2004 04:48 AM

James, maybe you should get out of your little echo chamber and ask some lefties what they really think...

btw, the only one here who implied that Iraq was too 'tribal driven' was Cody, who doesn't seem very lefty to me.

Posted by: Sander at April 7, 2004 05:31 AM

Amazing how Pinoche's Chile and Franco's Spain are now stable democracies, while the various totalitarian shit-wholes around the world are all failed democracies.

It is a SAD FACT, but still a fact, that democracy requires rule of law, economic freedom and overwhelming military might over various militias FIRST to become a democracy.

An authoritarian nation is still not totalitarian and Pinoche's Chile and Franco's Spain were still more free than Cuba, North Korea, Iran, Rwanda, etc. Both nations are FAILED authoritarian states that became democracies, which is probably the best we can hope for in Iraq.

Another example - Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Turkish Republic. NOT A DEMOCRAT.

C'mon Michael my centrist friend SAY IT. Call Kemal Ataturk a fascist. You know you want to!

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 05:38 AM

The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad by Fareed Zakaria

Same thesis. Zakaria is a liberal but does not endorse democracy for developing countires. Call him a facsist too, Micheal!

General Douglas MacArthur - ruled Japan as virtual dictator. NOT A DEMOCRAT. Japan is now a liberal demcoracy. Go ahead Michael, call MacArthur a fascist and pat your self on the back!

Democracies are not made. They result when a nation reaches critical-mass thresholds of literacy, self-consciousness, trust, and public order. When this strand of middle-class citizens come to realize the necessity of co-existence, they will selfishly relax their desire for special perogotives in return for a state strong enough to enforce the social contract.

So go head and pat yourselves on the back and denounce Francis Fukayama, Alexander Hamilton, Thomas Hobbes as fascists because none are democrats. (Yet all are liberals)

Welcome to Earth.

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 05:57 AM

" ..to establish order by bringing in massive numbers of U.S. and allied troops, imposing a regime of surveillance and supervision that is widespread and almost totalitarian.."

Isn't this what Americans tried in Vietnam?Did it not fail because for the South Vietnamese,there wasn't a government worth fighting for among the generals-in-sunglasses that ruled the place?I agree with Zarqawi's letter:once the Iraqis get a government they can call their own,the extremists will,for all practical purposes, have lost the battle.

Posted by: Jussi Hämäläinen at April 7, 2004 06:34 AM

Did anyone here actually read the article? O'Sullivan is presenting a number of possible solutions to the problem. As the excerpt states, this particular option is not available given current plans and force levels in Iraq. In the very next paragraph, O'Sullivan states:

"That leaves the third option — which also happens to be the most practicable one in current circumstances — namely, handing over power to a new Iraqi government and supporting it in its suppression of terrorism."

The fact of the matter is, imposing some totalitarian system would in many ways solve the problems we face in Iraq. As other have noted, the stability that such regimes may provide has in cases led countries to emerge stronger and freer. And there can be no doubt that countries that emerged from failed right-wing totalitarian regimes have fared better than those under left-wing authoritarian regimes.

But, as O'Sullivan notes, that is neither the plan nor the preferred solution in Iraq. So I'm not sure what the fuss is actually all about.

Posted by: Hacksaw at April 7, 2004 06:40 AM

Ex:Yes,the man responsible for the Armenian Genocide was most certainly a Fascist,in just about every sense of the word.

Posted by: Jussi Hämäläinen at April 7, 2004 06:41 AM

"So I'm not sure what the fuss is actually all about."

A so-called centrist trying to keep his brownie points with the Left.

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 06:42 AM

Jussi: None the less, Turkey is a stable republic, certainly more democratic and liberal that most of its neighbors. As I said, go ahead and get your jollies calling him a fascist and then patting yourself on the back for your progressive enlightenment.

But it won't do a lick of good for anybody in the real world.

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 06:46 AM

Hacksaw -

You are correct. Note what time I posted. I burned through the article and went off half-cocked.

I had an involved discussion about a week back with a good friend on the utility of installing another dictator instead of doing all the Wilsonian contortions we have committed to making work. Reading MJT's entry brought the argument back.

Mea culpa. O'Sullivan mentioned it as an option impossible to implement...but he did put it on the table.

Grant -

"I'd rather deal with Kerry than with Bush when it comes to health care, jobs, and gay rights."

That's our problem right there. Priorities.

Losing the peace in Iraq means losing the war against Islamofascism.

I never said Kerry was a terrorist. I never said that terrorists supported him, which to me would imply money or voting. Do they prefer him over Bush as an opponent? Absolutely. They are insane, not stupid. If we lack the resolve to fight these people by making them free, we either withdraw behind our borders and settle into a quasi-Israeli bunker existence with all the baggage of onerous security burdens, economic disruption, and psychological malaise that will make the late seventies look like the gay nineties.

It goes without saying our security commitments with places like the ROK and elsewhere won't be worth the paper they are written on.

Bringing up McVeigh, even facetiously, brings to mind the actions of Clinton in attempting to intimate that conservative white gun owners as a greater threat to democracy than Islamists.

He had a problem with priorities, too.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 7, 2004 07:40 AM

Sigh...preview is my FRIEND:

"If we lack the resolve to fight these people by making them free, we either withdraw behind our borders and settle into a quasi-Israeli bunker existence with all the baggage of onerous security burdens, economic disruption, and psychological malaise that will make the late seventies look like the gay nineties." Strike the "either"...

We will in effect have refused to confront the enemy on their ground and agreed to fight them here.

My daughters should not have to grow up in a world where barbarians rule. That's not generalized crap. If we could put aside our domestic differences long enough to deal with this threat I'd feel a lot better about our future as a nation.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 7, 2004 07:54 AM

I don't like to see Kemal Ataturk attacked... he was dealing with fundamentalist mullahs back in 1934 (mostly hanging them, sure) -- but even if he wasn't the perfect secular humanist by our exalted standards (although he was an atheist) he was just about the best you could find back in those days.

And the word "fascist" has become almost meaningless as a term of abuse. Eric Hobsbawm (the British historian) traces its derivation specifically from Mussolini (and Hitler was at first deferential to Il Duce, until he saw how ineffective his military turned out to be).

Jeanne Kirkpatrick came up with "authoritarian" vs "totalitarian." Authoritarian regimes, however ugly, contain within them the possibility of reform. Totalitarian regimes, devoted only to their own perpetuation, do not.

Posted by: miklos rosza at April 7, 2004 08:12 AM

Joe: There really are some conservatives who believe that authoritarians like Pinochet and Franco were, in the long run, good for their nations because they established the stability and economic freedom necessary for democracy to flourish. The thinking is, if I understand correctly, that you can't go straight from totalitarianism to democracy in one go, you have to take it one step at a time and it can often take a long time.

Chile was a democracy before Pinochet ended it for two decades. That country had a stronger democratic tradition than any other country in South America. Allende was no angel, but he was going to lose the next election anyway. The very month he was overthrown he offered to hold a plebiscite and stand down if he lost.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 7, 2004 09:34 AM

Do you really think Allende would have given up that easily? He was as anti-democratic as Pinoche, a totalitarian-in-the-making. When Allende consolidated his power, Pinche would be a dead man walking

Pinoche jsut beat him to the punch and saved liberalism in Chile. Morally both were despicable men, but one at least had some respect for freedom.

The ugly truth is that liberal democracy is not made. It is an evolution of liberal non-democracy.

Pretending otherwise doesn't help anybody. It is just mental masturbation.

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 09:43 AM

The harsh truth is that Ex is right.

The usual progression is:

Political stability.
The rule of law.
Economic growth.
The development of a middle class.
Democracy.

Until, a country like Iraq has the rule of law and economic stability, the next step will be a benign dictatorship like Pinochet, not democracy as we Americans know it.

And yes, Chile is now a prosperous, stable democracy while Cuba is a totalitarian slum. So Pinochet was a better leader than Castro.

Posted by: Matt Ward at April 7, 2004 10:21 AM

I would further argue that China is on its way to becoming a democracy in the next half-century because the decision to embrace free markets 20 years ago is fast shuttling it through all these stages.

Posted by: Matt Ward at April 7, 2004 10:26 AM

Chile is now a prosperous, stable democracy while Cuba is a totalitarian slum. So Pinochet was a better leader than Castro.

Yes, but that doesn't make him a hero as some believe. Chile was also a stable democracy long BEFORE the 1970s.

Until, a country like Iraq has the rule of law and economic stability, the next step will be a benign dictatorship like Pinochet, not democracy as we Americans know it.

So we shouldn't even TRY to set up a democracy for Iraq?

Some of the old Communist countries have made a pretty good transition to democracy. Some have not. Those who succeeded did it WITHOUT Western intervention.

Iraqi Kurdistan has done a pretty decent job all by itself with no help from us on the ground. That's something.

If it fails, it fails. But we have to try.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 7, 2004 10:42 AM

"[B]ut that doesn't make him a hero as some believe."

Absolutely right - I think the basic point is that you have to be subjugated under a dictator, history shows you are better off being subjugated by a right-wing dictator. But that doesn't make the dictatorship itself a good thing.

Even a cursory glance at the history of democracy shows that there is no one path to achieve it. Michael correctly notes the success of democracy/liberalism in some form in Iraqi Kurdistan. I would add to it the successful election of town councils and other proto-democratic institutions at the local levels in Iraq.

There is no reason to believe that the current struggle combined with the strong role the US and others are playing in the country may not provide Iraq the conditions under which democracy can succeed. At a minimum, we must try, even if the effort at times seems hopelessly difficult.

Posted by: Hacksaw at April 7, 2004 10:50 AM

MJT -

Excellent Ledeen piece on the same NRO page as O'Sullivan's.

http://www.nationalreview.com/ledeen/ledeen200404070843.asp

I agree that we must try to make democracy work there. There is ample precedent that it can be done even in horrific environments. "Easy" has never been part of the formula, though.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 7, 2004 10:56 AM

I might care which bumper sticker an al quaedan was sporting if I valued his judgement. But I don't, so I'm going to make up my own mind on the merits of Kerry vs. Bush, and where I think each might or might not lead us. I'm sure if you asked Kerry, he'd say that if it is true, then he can't wait to prove to Al Quaeda just how wrong they are to think he'll do anything good for them.

It's possibly the truth that if Al quaedans were to vote, they'd lean towards Kerry. But at least some of them must think Bush has been good for recruitment, and that he makes a dandy evil satan figurehead for focusing the troops.

The point is that anything like "Al Quaedans for Kerry" is just a flame, and nothing more. It's about as far from a reasoned argument as you can get. On top of that it's a sly but ugly way to suggest that Kerry is on the same side as our enemies. TmjUtah, you have occasionally impressed me with your concise and on-point distillations of current circumstances. This time though, not so much. Especially when you follow up your flame with disingenous assertyions about what you didn't "say." This flame is all about what can be gained by implying.

Posted by: bk at April 7, 2004 11:04 AM

I think we should try for democracy in Iraq, and I pray we succeed, because that's the only way we'll defeat Islamofascism.

But I think what we're realistically aiming for over the next decade is political and economic stability presided over by a strongman who has the interests of all Iraqis in mind and who doesn't have Saddam's meglomania and sadism.

Someone who will allow a middle class to develop which can then take over the reins of power in a democracy.

Posted by: Matt Ward at April 7, 2004 11:06 AM

And yes, Chile is now a prosperous, stable democracy while Cuba is a totalitarian slum. So Pinochet was a better leader than Castro.

And by this ironclad reasoning, we evaluate Germany's former leaders exactly how?

Post hoc, ergo propter hoc is the best you can do, Matt? Try again.

Posted by: bk at April 7, 2004 11:08 AM

Totten:

1) Chile was NOT a stable democracy. It wasn't economically liberal, there wasn't a strong middle class, etc. Hence the reason a scumbag such as Allende was given power and allowed to poop all over Chile's democratic institutions (all in the name of "democracy" of course) before he blew his own brains out.

2) The ex-communist democratic countries had strong middle-classes and ethnic unitity. Too much democracy and Iraq will look like Yugoslavia on roids.

3) We TRY to set up a successful democracy by going with what works. Build liberal institutions first, then democracy. Doing something that history and logic shows will fail is not really trying! Certainly some areas can get less stronghanded than others (such as Kurdistan).

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 11:10 AM

bk: What does Germany have to do with Chile?

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 11:15 AM

bk,

I fail to see what the Nazis had to do with postwar Germany's economic and democratic expansion.

The Nazis were neither democratic, capitalist, or even particularly stable.

Post-war Germany became democratic and prosperous because they rejected the twin idealogies of fascism and communism. Largely thanks to American support.

Posted by: Matt Ward at April 7, 2004 11:25 AM

Matt: They also were under military rule for years before organizing the Federal Republic.

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 11:27 AM

People here are failing to connect the dots. If what we establish in Iraq is a US-aligned authoritarian government, what good have we done ourselves? Replace the old Saddam with our very own Saddam and you still have an oppressive society. Is that the propaganda victory we have spent $150 billion and over 600 U.S. lives for - so far?

The place is a mess, and there little we can do about it. We were over our heads the minute we raised the flag over Baghdad. The best we can hope for is to retreat to some heavily-guarded bases and support the authoritarian regime we set up until it's overthrown. Then it's bring the carriers in close and send the choppers in to bring out the lucky ones.

Posted by: Mithras at April 7, 2004 11:34 AM

Mithras: So it's that black and white, eh? Please think. An authoritarian republic implementing liberal reform and democracy is not the same as a totalitarian one-party regime.

But are you really here to discuss...or to give us standard anti-war talking points?

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 11:40 AM

Mithras,

I think you're failing to see the forest for the trees.

I would love for Iraq to jump all the way to "Go" this year. But my guess is they'll have someone like Attaturk, who will lay the groundwork for democracy. There are different grades to dictators, as much as we don't like to admit it.

Posted by: Matt Ward at April 7, 2004 11:45 AM

Let us understand something. Iraq is in a state of insurgency and is under martial law. The country must be pacified before any semblance of liberal rule can be imposed. In the American Civil War, the first thing Lincoln did in the spring of 1861, was to send US forces into Baltimore and arrest the entire political establishment including the Mayor who were in open insurrection against the Union. He held them without trial for the entire war. The Constitution is not a suicide pact. The AMerican occupation of Iraq has been remarkably liberal. We allowed Sadr and his thugocracy to operate freely for months and months. His newspaper printed lies and incited Iraqis to kill. We had to put a stop to it. I don't know that O'Sullivan is calling for a permanent repressive regime. Nor do I think the U.S. was wrong to attempt to impose a liberal occupation. But the necessary co-ingredient is to clamp down hard hard hard when the line is crossed as it has now been crossed. This type of thing is not an exact science. I am confident, though, that the Bush people understand what is going on and learn from mistakes. This is all you can ask. If the United States or parts of it had the khe kind of lawlessness that the Sunni triangle has, those areas would be under martial law as well as they were during the Civil War. Many on the left have criticized the administration for shutting down Sar's newspaper. Knee-jerk "free speech" cries. Ridiculous. It shows how unserious they are. Free speech does not mean the freedom to incite violence and insurrection. It never has and it never will. Iraq is not stable enough to allow an Arab Goebbels to spout lies and hate as we would allow hate speech in this country in the name of the first amendment.

Posted by: Doug at April 7, 2004 11:50 AM

bk -

I am many things. Some I'm proud of, others I'm not.

I'm never sly.

I posted my take on what I see as central parts of our enemy's strategy and motivations, and number one in my mind has to be their desire to see any equivocation or lack of will injected into our response they possibly can. That I did it in one sentence using a coarse metaphor may have been imprecise - but that's why I expanded on the subject shortly after.

The candidates running for president do not represent different options for the same problem. One has published and enacted a policy, the other has spent the last two years implying ulterior motives, dishonesty, incompetence, defining daily progress as abject failure, and generally any other shrill political bleat that might have a chance of sticking. All without proposing any substantive or believable alternative beyond appealing to the 'international community' that has to this date seemed more interested in seeing us fail rather than otherwise. That's politics as usual, and no crime in itself. That his party is incapable of recognising that this time is not usual I will not ignore. He is NOT a terror supporter, but Lenin's dicta of useful fools applies in spades.

And there's nothing sly about that, either.

A pleasure to disagree, of course. Treat me like I treat tano if it makes you feel better. I don't reply to poster's whose opinions I cannot respect.

Matt -

Too bad they didn't dodge that welfare state bullet in the end, though. They have some serious choices to make, and soon, or they may be finding themselves without a rich or middle class to pay for the rest of the state.

Posted by: TmjUtah at April 7, 2004 11:56 AM

Ex: Too much democracy and Iraq will look like Yugoslavia on roids.

If the US military were to complete evacuate Iraq, I would worrry about that. But we are not going to leave. We won't administer the country, but we can keep a lid on it and defend the new Iraqi government.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 7, 2004 12:01 PM

Mr. O’Sullivan is the id of the right. I’m surprised to see that mainstream conservatives still think totalitarianism in other countries, so long as it serves our own ends, is something to be patted on the back.

Michael, respectfully, get off your friggin high horse. You're smarter than that.

Freedom and liberty first requires a modicum of order and stability. Ooops! There. I said it. The "O" word-- "Order". I guess that makes me a Nazi stormtrooper.

Occupied Germany and Japan were under martial law for YEARS after the war. Japan was a dictatorship with MacArthur as their temporary dictator. Go ahead, let's hear you reflect on the "id" of the Right after WWII-- the Right which basically gave democracy to those countries.

Posted by: David at April 7, 2004 12:05 PM

The analogies to postwar Japan and Germany are apt. In fact, martial law in Iraq may be required for longer than it was needed in Japan and Germany, simply because of the length of time that Iraq has been under Saddam and the Baathists.
Go ahead, wade into that maelstrom of tribalism, religious and ethnic hatred, and organized criminal warlordism. Just you try to magically turn the mess into a western style democratic nation in barely a year. Iraq must find its own approach to democracy, but it has to be stable and secure enough to do so.

Posted by: Peter Jensen at April 7, 2004 12:39 PM

David: Freedom and liberty first requires a modicum of order and stability. Ooops! There. I said it. The "O" word-- "Order".

Of course. I agree. But you said "order" not "totalitarian." They are not at all the same thing.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 7, 2004 12:44 PM

I doubt your comments about Pinochet wanting to strangle even the "memory of democracy" are fair. I was in Chile right after the coup, and they were fearful times to be sure. But "democracy" wasn't their target, it was communism and it's younger brother socialism. I'm no fan of Pinochet, because I know what a ruthless SOB he was, but please also recall that Pinochet ran for election and then stepped down after he lost. Hardly an effort to strangle the memory of democracy.

For O'Sullivan to use the word "totalitarian" was an unfortunate choice of words. Is it possible that he was as sloppy in his choice of words as you were Michael? I think it is. To be fair, however, he did say "almost totalitarian." And what he means by this is not the kind of intrusive Stalinism that the word implies, but probably government by iron fist a la Franco in Spain, or Pinochet in Chile, or King Abdullah in Jordan, or MacArthur in Japan, etc. In other words, less intrusive, but just as ruthless in enforcing it's authority.

Posted by: David at April 7, 2004 01:02 PM

David: And what he means by this is not the kind of intrusive Stalinism that the word implies, but probably government by iron fist a la Franco in Spain, or Pinochet in Chile, or King Abdullah in Jordan, or MacArthur in Japan, etc.

Yes, probably. And I still strongly take issue with that. That isn't our plan, and I'm glad as hell it isn't.

What we're seeing here is the divide between liberal hawks and neoconservatives on the one side and traditional conservatives on the other. You know which side I'm on, I've made no secret of it.

Iraq will get a consensual government. And the US military will protect that government from terrorists and anti-democratic insurgents. I say that's the right balance. O'Sullivan and his ilk look like if they had their druthers they would take a pass on the whole project.

Imagine, David, the anti-American propaganda that would ensue if the US imposed another dictatorship in Iraq. We don't need that. Iraqis don't need that. And you could forget all about the democratic "domino" theory.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 7, 2004 01:44 PM

Totten: If they are following your advice it makes me regret my whole support of the War. We will be left with a shit-hole in the midst of civil war, destablizing the region.

We need a Vladmir Putin or Kemal Ataturk in Iraq.

Instead we will get a quagmire.

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 01:55 PM

Ex: We need a Vladmir Putin or Kemal Ataturk in Iraq.

Putin is reconstituting Russia as a dictatorship. He's moving that country in the opposite direction he should be moving it in. Bad for us. Bad for Russia.

As for Ataturk, he broke the back of fundamentalism. Yes. And that's great. But Saddam already did that in Iraq, and we're keeping it down as we speak. Something like 20 percent of Iraqis want an Islamic state. If the percentage was greater than 50, then I might agree with your position.

What's wrong with a democratic Iraq secured by the US military? I don't think it will be as vulnerable as you fear it will be.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 7, 2004 02:12 PM

"What's wrong with a democratic Iraq secured by the US military?"

Nothing is wrong with it, I am just skeptical of its possiblity in the next 5-10 years. We need to take a realistic approach. Liberalism first, then democracy.

Posted by: Ex at April 7, 2004 02:19 PM

He's not my id, and I disagree with his extreme statements.

FWIW.

Posted by: Bostonian at April 7, 2004 02:56 PM

You are right Michael.

O'Sullivan is out of his tree on this.

On the other hand, Kerry called Moqtada al-Sadr a "legitimate voice in Iraq" this morning on NPR.

O'Sullivan is a magazine writer. Kerry is a Presidential candidate.

When Bush is calling for totalitarian control of Iraq, let me know.

Posted by: Roark at April 7, 2004 02:56 PM

What Iraq needs is exactly what Bush is going to give them. A civilian government with U.S. military power backing them up. Period. It's the Post-WWII model, and it will work.

O'Sullivan is full of crap, and his comments are a sign of panic, just like Liberals are panicking and begging us to turn tail and run. People need to chill out. The U.S. troops are there, and will stay there, for exactly this contingency--to crush any opposition to the Ruling Council. The Muktar's support is not widespread, and as long as U.S. troops don't blow up that holy site, we'll be ok. This is going as per plan as far as I'm concerned. I'm only surprised it didn't happen sooner.

Posted by: David at April 7, 2004 03:45 PM

David, we seem to be in agreement now.

And Roark...I'll get to John Kerry's comments in good time. He's on my list.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 7, 2004 03:48 PM

And by the way, John Lurch Kerry is a disgusting and vile excuse for a presidential candidate, making those commments about Muktar Sadr as our troops are getting killed. Of course, to you Democrats, nothing is beyond the pale in your pathetic war against Bush.

Posted by: David at April 7, 2004 03:51 PM

Kerry played the "Bush shut down a radio station" card, going straight to the free speech nerve of Americans. Crooked pool.

OT: Thank you to our troops. There's nothing one can say, but something has to be said. I feel like I don't deserve to be walking around.

Posted by: Jim at April 7, 2004 05:18 PM

Kerry played the "Bush shut down a radio station" card, going straight to the free speech nerve of Americans.

That's the id of the Left, defending the "free speech" of our enemies.

Posted by: David at April 7, 2004 06:13 PM

"And Roark...I'll get to John Kerry's comments in good time. He's on my list"

I figured he was on the list. I'll look forward to your treatment.

Posted by: Roark at April 7, 2004 06:16 PM

TmjUtah

For months now I've been calling John Kerry an equivocating opportunist and poor choice for the democratic nomination over at centerfield. I'm from Masachusetts. I know John Kerry. I've never much liked him.

I just think it's out of bounds unfair to to float the "al quaedans for Kerry" rhetoric. It feels like something a little bit more than "imprecise." And you say you're not sly. :-) Do you think Ted Kennedy was merely imprecise when he said Iraq is Bush's Vietnam? Me neither.

I'm alot more amenable to what you say when you expound your opinion honestly and at just a little more length. Undoubtedly Al Quaeda is prone to taking solace in anything they view as equivocation on the part of their enemies. That's a very fair point. However, as we go forward in the war on terror we have to decide to make choices on policy solely or primarily on the basis of our judgement that it's the right thing to do to defeat terrorism over the long term. In some cases these decisions may indeed provide some solace to our enemies, but we can't forego our best judgement simply because of this. We should chose to lose occasional PR battles if it means winning the real long term war.

And that's the point I was trying to make. Al quaeda's opinion on Presidential candidates means nothing to me, I'm not considering their counsel. Period.

Oh, and I'm glad I read down thru the rest of the thread. I'll need to check on the context, but if Kerry called Al Sadr "a legitimate voice" meaning he doesn't deserve to be put down and locked up, then he really is even more of a disgrace than I've had him pegged as.

Posted by: bk at April 7, 2004 06:42 PM

bk - can I suggest that you read (or listen) to the actual comments that Kerry made before you rush to judgment on the basis of the distortion presented above.

In the context of the decision to shut down the newspaper last week, he described the newspaper as belonging to a legitimate voice, and then immediately backtracked and stated that the shift in Muqtada al-Sadr's approach since the closure meant that it was no longer legitimate.

In other words, he may have provided fodder for the usual partisan gotcha, but the passage from which the words were taken doesn't contain anything that a serious person could object to strongly.

What he went on to say was actually more controversial, and no doubt will lead to debate of both the sensible and hysterical kind.

Posted by: Mork at April 7, 2004 07:07 PM

Kerry on NPR: “They shut a newspaper that belongs to a legitimate voice in Iraq....Well, let me... change the term legitimate. It belongs to a voice — because he has clearly taken on a far more radical tone in recent days and aligned himself with both Hamas and Hezbollah, which is a sort of terrorist alignment.”

Is Kerry your idea of a "serious person," Mork? Can you paraphrase what he is arguing? I have no idea what he is arguing. I do know that he got on the radio station of his base, hit the anti-censorship nerve, realized he'd crossed a line, and then rambled incomprehensibly.

Posted by: Jim at April 7, 2004 07:42 PM

Does anyone have a link to Kerry's full discussion on this? I want to write about it later tonight and I don't want to go off half-cocked on stuff taken out of context.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 7, 2004 07:54 PM

MT: go to NPR and listen to the interview. My computer won't play it for some reason, so all I have is the wire excerpt I've given you. Going half-cocked, I guess.

Posted by: Jim at April 7, 2004 08:27 PM

Argh. My computer is not playing the interview. I may have to write about this tomorrow. I'll try to listen to it at work where the computer in my office is more up to date. I'm still running Windows 98 at home and not everything works right. I have Windows XP in a box but haven't found time to upgrade my system yet. Sigh.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at April 7, 2004 09:36 PM
Grant McEntire: "Oh yes, my friend, Kissingerian 'realism' is very much alive and well on the Right. But it's important to note the distinction between the conservatives and the NeoCons. The NeoCons have utterly denounced this kind of crap and are now, thankfully, in the majority. Their principled idealism stands in stark contrast."

So Reagan, who put a stake through the heart of Kissingerian Realpolitik, was a "NeoCon" and not a "conservative"? What does that make détente-promoting Colin Powell, who kept trying to remove the "Mr. Gorvachev, tear down this wall" line from Reagan's Berlin speech?

Posted by: MDP at April 8, 2004 03:51 AM

Grant,

Well you know, I almost hate to bring this up but, Richard Clarke as went on the record tying Timothy McVeigh to Al Quada.

He said that before he met with some operatives from AQ that he could not successfully build a decent bomb, but afterwards, OK City.

I realize Clarke is a serious liar, but I know people here were defending him from that allegation.

So when I read letters to the Editors from enlightened Lefties in Seattle comparing people who vote Republican to sheep, I was imagining that? Or stupid, or morons. Or evil or money grubbing greedy capitalists. Am I am imagining all this. Or Hillary Clinton saying, "We need to get away from these Individual Rights, and move to Group Rights".

Am I imagining all of this, or are these people not saying what it sounds like to me?

Posted by: James Stephenson at April 8, 2004 04:48 AM

Proof that Republicans are in league with Al Queda.

A vote for George Bush is a vote for Osama.

Posted by: Hipocrite at April 8, 2004 08:01 AM

Proof that Republicans are in league with Al Queda.

This statement has as much weight as saying I'm rubber and you're glue...but what "proof" are you talking about??? I'm just curious in a bored idle kind of way.

Posted by: David at April 8, 2004 10:53 AM

MDP...

Yep, Colin Powell is no NeoCon. They call him the dove of the Bush Administration, yet he's not quite that either. He's an old-school conservative "realist".

He's not an imperialist, intervening beyond the realm of national security on behalf of "national interests" (the ugly side of neo-conservatism). He's not a liberal interventionist intervening beyond the realm of national security for principled humanitarian reasons, out to make the world safe for democracy (the bright side of neo-conservatism, liberal hawk territory). And he's not some peacenik anti-war nut, nor is he longing for "Fortress America" a la Pat Buchanan.

He's I guess what you could call a cautious moderate on foreign policy and defense, hence the "realist" title. I hate realists, though, and can't stand Colin Powell. Our foreign policy should be something bigger than "realism", I say. We won the Cold War. It's our time now. Call it empire if you want, I don't care. An empire exporting liberalism abroad, an empire for all the right reasons, isn't such a bad thing.

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