Michael J. Totten: Ripples of Regime-Change

March 20, 2004

Ripples of Regime-Change

A bold anti-Baathist resistance in Syria is born. Here's a picture from Syrian Kurdistan. The man in the photo looks like he was (the deceased) Papa Assad. Boy Assad is surely not very happy about this.

And hey! These Kurds know who the real bad guys are. Way to go, Kurds. You're much smarter (and braver) than most activists these days.

(Hat tip: Andrew Apostolou.)

Posted by Michael J. Totten at March 20, 2004 07:12 PM

Comments

Michael...

If you want to talk about resistance, you maybe ought to post something on the whole China-Taiwan situation. I'm surprised you haven't already.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at March 20, 2004 07:27 PM

I guess we have established that proverbial beachhead havn't we. This is incredible, it's finally starting to sink in with these guys. We (US) are'nt leaving. The let's and get the hell out of Iraq crowd doesn't understand this. The Syrians and others do however. Would the Syrians and Iranians be doing this if the US troops weren't park right in between them? People think Bush is a simplistic dope. History will see Bush as a principled far-sighted genius. The main thing too risk this is a Bush loss in 2004 elections. Even if Kerry picks up the proverbial torch, Al Queada will test his resolve, they know Bush's. Could Bush screw up? Of course. But history suggests that Bush's apparent failures are really but short term setbacks, he always rebounds. For the sake of the Middle East and the world, I sure hope so.

Posted by: Samuel at March 20, 2004 07:31 PM

Do you think standing up to China in support of Taiwan is a good idea? Do you think the Chinese would back down and grant Taiwan their independence if we threatened to intervene? Do you think the people of Taiwan are worth standing up for? Stability, economic and otherwise, or principle no matter the risks?

Lots of big complex questions. Big plusses and minuses, either way.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at March 20, 2004 07:33 PM

Grant we are eating an Elephant my friend, one bite at a time.

Posted by: Samuel at March 20, 2004 07:47 PM

Samuel...

If Bush is such a far-sighted genius, then why is he starving Homeland Security and the Defense Budget (over the wishes of his own REPUBLICAN colleagues in the House, I might add) to pay for upper-income tax-cuts?

To quote The Weekly Standard, "The overall structure of the US military remains dangerously small."

There's absolutely no way to accomplish what even the NeoCons at The Weekly Standard are calling for without scrapping some of these permanent tax cuts you all love so much. A nation in fiscal crisis can't win a global war.

Sure, I believe Bush is committed to the ends of democratization. But, as I've said many times before, I doubt he's committed to the means.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at March 20, 2004 07:51 PM

PS...

And THAT is the difference between a neo-liberal hawk and a neo-con if you ask me.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at March 20, 2004 07:54 PM

Grant,

I guess I'm a still a neo-liberal hawk then. I'm just not partisan anymore. I can't be. There's no room for me in either party. So it goes.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at March 20, 2004 08:10 PM

Hey Michael, stay out of this man. I'm picking a fight with Samuel, not you. ;)

Though, I'll concede your point is a good one. There's hardly room for me among the Democrats these days, either. But, so long as the editors of the New Republic keep standing behind the Democratic Party, so will I (though I may end up voting for Bush).

Posted by: Grant McEntire at March 20, 2004 08:19 PM

Grant,

If Bush is such a far-sighted genius, then why is he starving Homeland Security and the Defense Budget...

Please Grant, every President from Washington to Lincoln, FDR to Reagan can be nit-picked, nobody in a democracy like ours could meet that bar, and the things you brought up will have none, got that zero, effect on a historical perspective. The real question for me is...

If Bush had the support of the Democrats on the War On Terror, rather than the undermining, how much more could we be progressed on such things?

Grant, Bush stretches his Political Capital further than any President in my memory, quite frankly I am just amazed a guy who lost the popular vote has done and squeezed what he has out while not losing everything, amazing really. But keep looking through that proctologist’s scope, it's an interesting view I'm sure.

Posted by: Samuel at March 20, 2004 08:41 PM

Grant, you're my evil twin. (Or am I your evil twin?)

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at March 20, 2004 08:52 PM

Call it nit-picking or not...

You have to admit that what the Weekly Standard is calling for requires revenue to accomplish and that it could easily be found in the scaling back of at least SOME of the tax cuts. The situation is soooo much like 1984 it's a little eerie. To meet the policy demands of the American people (security, entitlements, and otherwise), taxes are inevitably gonna have to go up. One can only borrow-and-spend so much.

And I wasn't defending the Democrats, dude. Kerry's said nothing like this. He'd scale back the tax cuts for the sake of health coverage. It's a worthy cause, no doubt, but he's proposing it at precisely the wrong time and it speaks to his lack of seriousness in fighting back the terrorists.

It would really take some balls for him to do it, and he won't, but he should be telling us that universal health coverage has to wait for another time, that the War on Terror is just more important. The last thing we need right now is another balooning entitlement program.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at March 20, 2004 08:57 PM

Oh no, Michael, if one of us gets to be evil it's gonna be me.

Seriously though, at least politically, I tend to think of you as being more of an older brother figure than a twin. You've seen more of the world. You're a tad older and wiser than I.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at March 20, 2004 09:02 PM

And that's not to say that you're not older and wiser as well, Samuel. I just don't see eye-to-eye on everything or seemingly 99% of everything the way I do with Totten.

But, I do respect you. You can play the role of uncle, I suppose. The cool uncle, though. Not the weird and creepy one.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at March 20, 2004 09:08 PM

I love my comments section. You guys are great.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at March 20, 2004 09:15 PM

Watch this Kurdish rebellion be put down not unlike in Iraq circa 1992. If Bush was serious about spreading freedom and liberty we would see some American action to help these Kurds.

But...no. Nothing.

Posted by: Kris at March 20, 2004 09:22 PM

Kris, if the US was serious about helping out the Kurds, would we have to make it flashy? SEALs are trained to be stealthy you know.

I am just waiting for this to reach critical mass. I suspect it will be a little like '89. First Poland, then a little later everybody else started to fall apart. I think that the next country to go, most likely Iran, will start a cascade effect that will ripple outward.

Posted by: FH at March 20, 2004 09:33 PM

Also, if we are serious about training a Syrian resistance movement, Green Berets would be involved. And they like to keep such things quiet. Or we could count on the Kurdish militias for the hard work, letting them use Iraq as a base of operations(something I find ironic and amusing).

Posted by: FH at March 20, 2004 09:35 PM

grant, although i'm a half-step to your right, i hope you someday seek elective office in the democratic party. it needs you.

Posted by: frendlydude2k at March 20, 2004 10:03 PM

I suspect it will be a little like '89. First Poland, then a little later everybody else started to fall apart.

See, this is why the parallels between the cold war and this conflict don't work. Communism was an ideology imposed from above that no one believed in, least of all the people imposing it. Because neither the people nor the dictators believed in it, when it went, it went.

The kind of authoritarian socialism that characterizes both fundamentalist Islam and the baathist regimes of the middle east are very different from 1980s communism. Different factions and ethnicities may be at each other's throats (and we can exploit that to a certain extent), but the culture at large believes very strongly in their clan and their religion. The religion part everyone gets, but not so the clan and tribe system. It exists to take care of its members. The authoritarianism and "safety net" of those structures is writ large in the state. The state is just an offshoot of clan and tribe. By comparison, 1980s communism was a ghost.

The point of this is that you might be able to topple the existing regimes, but the replacements (unless they are unhealthily puppetish) aren't going to be much different. You think Kurdistan would be the fifty-first state or something? Arabs and Muslims are not going to adopt western-style capitalism, constitutionalism and secularism. It's not that they don't understand our system, or it's over their heads. They get it; they just don't want it.

Posted by: Mithras at March 20, 2004 10:21 PM

Mithras: Arabs and Muslims are not going to adopt western-style capitalism, constitutionalism and secularism. It's not that they don't understand our system, or it's over their heads. They get it; they just don't want it.

Turkey adopted that kind of system 80 years ago.

People used to say Germans, Russians, Japanese, and Latin Americans couldn't handle democracy. Well, they were wrong. That kind of prediction has a poor track record.

Tribalism is a problem. It's also a phase of development. Arabs are not going to be stuck where they currently are forever.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at March 21, 2004 02:23 AM

In the long run, the deep-seated problems posed by Arab culture can be solved. But as someone once said, in the long run, we're all dead. It all depends on which time frame you think is relevant.

Anyway, my point is that the continuing analogies between this struggle and the end of the cold war are inapposite. In 1989, communism in eastern europe and the Soviet Union was a dead tree ready to be knocked over. In sharp contrast, the American attitude that "we're here to save you savages" is not playing well among Arabs; for example, see here.

Posted by: Mithras at March 21, 2004 08:26 AM

Mithras: the American attitude that "we're here to save you savages" is not playing well among Arabs; for example, see here.

It is playing well in Iraq.

71 percent of Sunnis want us to stay.

88 percent of Shiites want us to stay.

98 percent of Kurds want us to stay.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at March 21, 2004 11:00 AM

Thanks Michael. I was perhaps too overreaching with my example. What I mean to say was that Syria and Iran are both rather shakey at the moment. I suspect that if one fell, the other wouldn't be terribly far behind.

Posted by: FH at March 21, 2004 01:16 PM

Michael-
Whether or not the inhabitants of Iraq "want us to stay" or not isn't that good a proxy for the question of whether they like the idea of us changing their culture wholesale. Given the security situation, and the good performance of U.S. troops, it seems likely they enjoy whatever stability they can get. If the Americans pulled out, anarchy would reign, and very few members of the public (as opposed to the leadership of some groups, which would benefit from anarchy) want that.

Do you think the situation in the middle east is similar to late-1980s eastern europe?

Posted by: Mithras at March 21, 2004 04:54 PM

Mithras: Do you think the situation in the middle east is similar to late-1980s eastern europe?

No. At least, not in most places. In Iran, yes, it probably is. In Egypt and Saudi Arabia, it is not.

But, remember, this is the beginning of the Terror War. At least, this is the beginning of our engagement in it.

The Cold War began long after the rise of Communism. And the Soviet Union fell long after the beginning of the Cold War.

Patience, grasshoppa! :)

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