Michael J. Totten: Revolution Calling

March 16, 2004

Revolution Calling

You won’t see, read, or hear much about the violence sweeping through the streets of Iran in the mainstream media, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening.

The Corner and Project: Free Iran have the latest.

From The Corner:

I am listening to KRSI (Radio Sedaye Iran) right now. There are many Iranians calling (from Tehran, and Gorgan, etc.).

All reports indicate that almost every neighborhood in Tehran is on fire. People are throwing home-made bombs, Molotov cocktails, etc. into the homes of mullahs, and burning pictures of Khamenei in complete defiance of his recent edict to mourn during the month of Muharram.

From Project: Free Iran:

The Islamic republic regime's anti-riot units and plainclothes men have opened the charge, at this time 21:35 local time, against the demonstrators in southern Tehran, Esfahan's Tchahr Bagh and the city of Mashad by using knives, clubs and chains. Unconfirmed reports are stating about the use of plastic bullets in Esfahan and the Sadeghieh square of Tehran.

Several have been badly wounded during the attacks but fierce resistance is being made by thousands of young Iranians, male and female, who are opposing the attacks by the use of all available tools and especially Molotov cocktails which were made for such eventuality.

I don’t expect the Iranian regime will fall tomorrow, though for two reasons I hope that it does.

First and most obviously, the regime deserves to be violently overthrown. It has no right to exist. And the people of Iran, like all humans everywhere, have the right to live in freedom and with dignity. The Middle East, and the world as a whole, will be far better off when the religious fascists are marginalized, exiled, caged, or dead.

The second reason I hope it falls tomorrow is that it would really show up the media. Holy shit! The Iranian government was overthrown? How the heck did that happen?

The fools are asleep at the wheel. They either have no idea what is happening in the world, or they don’t care. Or maybe they don’t think we care.

Yet we do.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at March 16, 2004 11:06 PM

Comments

Faster Please.

On a more important note, I do think that it would be ironic if the Mullahs were kicked out promptly, without media fanfare. For then it would be a true case of :

"The Revolution will not be Televised"

Posted by: FH at March 16, 2004 11:20 PM

I pray for their downfall. But I'm not optimistic and I don't want to fall prey to wishful thinking. That already happened once last year when the student demonstrations were happening (was it April?). I think a few hawkish sites and NRO got carried away and were predicting - almost guaranteeing a popular uprising. Michael Ledeen was practically celebrating a fait accompli.

Needless to say, it didn't happen. The students were not joined. Their leaders were arrested - some heads smashed and some disappeared. Revolutions can't happen when the leaders are willing to crush it. Eastern European commies were not as ruthless in 89 as they had been in 56 and 68 - not to mention Stalin's time. The Shah of Iran was an ugly dictator but he was no Saddam Hussein or Hafez Assad.

Posted by: John in Tokyo at March 16, 2004 11:42 PM

To reference something in the previous post...

How screwed up is it, by the way, that the most irrationally exuberant folks for Iranian liberty are at The National Review?!!!

What a weird and twisted thing the political spectrum has become these days. The Party of Kissinger and Buckley under the Bush Administration is, in the recent words of George Will, serving out Woodrow Wilson's third term.

In terms of party politics and history, something pretty monumental may be going on here. The Democratic Party from the days of Wilson up through the days of LBJ was clearly the Party of anti-isolationism. Vietnam shook this interventionist streak to the core but I always conceived of it as being a temporary thing. But I'm really not so certain, anymore. Maybe it's just the poor luck of not having a Democrat in the White House when 9/11 happened but you gotta admit, the Democrats are closer today to being an anti-war party than they've ever been.

Granted, they're not running George McGovern but even in 1972 there was a large contingent of "Cold War" hawkish Democrats in Congress. I can't think of a single Democrat in Congress today that is both a bona-fide liberal and a bona-fide hawk. The Scoop Jackson wing of the Party is officially dead and The New Republic increasingly reads like a journal out of time.

As you look back through history you have to recognize that the Democratic Party of 1934 had more in common with the Republican Party of 1864 than the Democratic Party during that same time. The parties had profoundly flip-flopped in 70 years. Another 70 years later I'm wondering if the same thing isn't happening, again.

Thoughts, anybody?

Posted by: Grant McEntire at March 17, 2004 02:19 AM

The media is being irresponsible on this! The Iranian students & protesters deserve for more analysis -- where is the NYT? Or Fox??? Or Amnesty International?

Boot the dictators!

On liberals ... Yes, flip-flop, aging--the anti-war (V. war) rebels have become the establishment, and want no changes to their establishment.

Posted by: Tom Grey at March 17, 2004 03:51 AM

Grant, I believe what happened is that: (1.) neocons convinced most of the right that liberty and democracy can be expeditiously exported without first instituting, over long history, the array of civil institutions and values which old-time conservatives thought necessary for a country to handle democracy and liberty (now leftists take up that abandoned position to bludgeon, since they need all the arrows for their quiver they can get). (2.) In the last 30 years a disinfecting light has eliminated most of the traditional racism on the right. (3.) The right is convinced that the Bush Doctrine is simply correct in holding that if we liberate them, they'll stop killing us.

On that last point, one of the great ironies at this moment, though it's only superficial, is that the right is going to "root causes"! The pacifists plead about root causes of terrorism, while the right speaks of evil and kills evildoers, and yet, the right addresses the root causes: oppressive culture, lack of liberty, lack of democracy.

The irony is only superficial, because the underlying principle on the right is not the leftist view that poor folk lash out and therefore need more money, but that liberty and democracy allow people to reason away their evil cultural traits. Inasmuch as in the right's view there is a "root cause" other than simply wicked people who wish to do evil, it is not poverty but the cultural and political oppression that prevents their being seen for who they really are. It's not that poverty needs to be addressed; it's that the "disinfecting light" of reason needs to be gotten up and running.

Posted by: Jim at March 17, 2004 04:28 AM

I don't expect them to be overthrown tomorrow but they are going down in the near future.
The majority of people are not with them anymore and the only way they can hold onto power is through repression. The Iranians have learned or are learning this. This outbreak may be put down but the next one they will be better prepared and it will be bloodier on both sides.

Posted by: Starhawk at March 17, 2004 06:23 AM

CNN did much worse than just turn a blind eye. They spun the story to sound like it was a peaceful festival graciously endorsed by the government!
http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/03/16/iran.festival.reut/

Posted by: RANT at March 17, 2004 06:44 AM

"Or maybe thay think we don't care.
Yet we do."

Actually, "we," the American public, or the cable newschannel viewers, don't care. Not many of us, anyway. If segments on Iran got bigger ratings than Janet Jackson or Martha Stewart, they would get aired.

Posted by: Brooklynite at March 17, 2004 08:59 AM

Look at all the historical examples of hard line repressive governments, willing to use force to oppress their people, that have been overthrown without foreign military intervention or at least a strong and (emphasis on) well-organized internal opposition.

There aren't any that I can think of (although I speak under correction). As long as the mullahs are willing to use force on their own people, they'll stay in power. If it comes down to a real shootout between the government and the students, I'm betting on the government to win. I would love to lose that bet, of course.

Posted by: Sebastian at March 17, 2004 09:04 AM

It would be a shame indeed if the Iranian people rose up to overthrow the Ayatollahs asd we did not support them.

One would think the overthrow of the mullahs would have bipartisan support - after all it is suppoerting a popular uprising overthrowing oppressive dictators, led by radical students against a repressive government (which should get the Left to support it)

and supporting the revolt continues the Bush doctrine of transforming the Middle East from a region where tinpot dictators support and succor terrorism to one where democracy and freedom can grow (So this should get support from the Right).

It looks like supporting this uprising would be a win/win for all concerned.

If we're not supporting the students and People of Iran in their uprising yet, even covertly, we should darn well get started.

At the very least send in some Special Forces groups, weapons and supplies and let the Iranians free themselves with a bit of air support from their friends.

Posted by: AaronKendal at March 17, 2004 09:52 AM

Aaron,
Th problem with asking if anyone is covertly this uprising is that if you find out about it then it hasn't ben done very well. For all we know the US is supporting this, but they aren't telling anybody. Whic would seem like a good idea.

Posted by: sam at March 17, 2004 10:15 AM

Grant: I can't think of a single Democrat in Congress today that is both a bona-fide liberal and a bona-fide hawk.

I basically agree with you, but there is at least one: Joe Lieberman. But he's the exception that proves the rule, as he was pretty soundly thrashed this year despite his VP-2000 prominence. (Due both to his hawkishness and to his lack of charisma, IMHO.)

Posted by: David Pittelli at March 17, 2004 06:54 PM

David Pittelli...

Nope. Joe Lieberman is no liberal. He's a Centrist, plain and simple. There are quite a few hawkish Democrats in Congress (Zell Miller comes to mind), but they're all moderate to conservative. Today, in Congress at least, the words "liberal" and "hawk" are contradictions and it's thoroughly depressing given the glorious Party history of Truman and Kennedy.

Scoop Jackson was a liberal. He was both a staunch New Dealer and a staunch Cold Warrior. There are no Scoop-Jackson-Democrats in Congress, anymore. Period.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at March 17, 2004 11:26 PM

PS...

I'm a pretty huge Joltin' Joe fan, by the way, spare his social conservatism.

The closest thing America's got to a liberal Democrat hawk leader is Tony Blair and he's not even American. The Democrats need a Tony Blair in the worst way, and that was simply my point.

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