February 12, 2004

Here We Go

Drudge reports that the Kerry campaign is about to implode. Itís another intern scandal.

Kerry isnít my favorite person. He certainly isnít my first choice for president.

But, you know? I just donít care about his sex life. I really donít. We arenít electing the pope or the chief marriage counselor.

If Kerry were my guy, this scandal - if itís even legit in the first place - wouldnít change that. As it is, I donít particularly care for him, but I donít think much worse of him as a candidate. (At least not yet.)

That sound you hear in the corner? Howard Dean is licking his chops.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at February 12, 2004 10:19 AM
Comments

I don't care about Kerry's sex life either but if this turns out to be true Democrats might want to dump him just to avoid the hassle of going through another sex scandal. If that happens I would think John Edwards would be the primary beneficiary. Howard Dean just has too many negatives.

I've always thought that Edwards was the most electable of the bunch, so if a scandal derails Kerry it may not necessarily be a positive for Bush.

Posted by: Randal Robinson at February 12, 2004 10:36 AM

So, if I understand this correctly, Kerry may have had a recent affair with an intern while married to his current wife. And, presumably, his wife does not approve of him consorting with other women.

Now, if true, does this not bother you, at least somewhat? I have a hard time respecting someone who cannot at least be faithful to his or her spouse.

And with an intern? If he was going to be unfaithful, why he could he not at least arrange something more secretive? At least to spare his wife the knowledge.

Posted by: Nathan at February 12, 2004 10:38 AM

I agree with Randal Robinson. If this story pans out, I think we will see Kerry dropped almost instantaneously and Edwards will be the beneficiary.

Posted by: Michael Hall at February 12, 2004 10:40 AM

Here we go again. It's not about sex. It never was. It's about the ability to take things seriously.

Dubya was (supposedly) an substance abuser. He (supposedly) cleaned up. Bill Clinton had a major weakness. He obviously didn't clean up. Which one is Kerry?

Question one: Saddam Hussein sees Clinton in office. He sends a spicy little Iraqi number to the White House. Does Clinton take the bait? The problem isn't whether he does or not. The problem is, we're not really sure, are we.

Question two: Saddam Hussein sees Dubya in office. He sends a drinking buddy to the White House. Does Bush take the bait? I don't think so. I think that's an easy one.

Question three: Saddam Hussein sees John Kerry in office. He sends a sophisticated woman with lots of old money to the White House. Hmm.

Who knows. Maybe Dubya has his buttons too. Maybe he can be manipulated as well. But when someone like Kerry shows a pattern of constantly falling for the same thing, over and over again (he's had affairs and divorces before; and he's fallen for the same type of thing over and over), you may as well nail a big "KICK ME" sign to his head.

And let's admit it. Sex is a pretty powerful stimulant. I don't think this is a side of humanity we can ignore. If we're going to set it aside, Kerry needs to say "I have a problem, and I'm going to do something about it, and I'm going to tell everyone around me to keep an eye on me."

But when it comes to sex, that's not going to happen, is it.

Posted by: Ann On A Mouse at February 12, 2004 10:45 AM

I didn't care about Clinton either, however in retrospect Clinton blew it just like Martha Stewart is blowing it now, and quite frankly Nixon blew it in 1973-74, in the manner it was handled. If Nixon had been willing to implicate the proper people to take the fall and didn't endeavor to cover up (where his worst behavior was manifested by a mile) then he wouldn't have faced impeachment either. Clinton showed abhorrent behavior and was fully exposed and further revealed his worse quality, his willingness to destroy anyone and place responsibility on anyone but himself. Whether someone can relate to why he would do this isn’t the point and is not the proper way to measure justifiability. If Kerry will handle it well then he will be better for it. I don’t think the American people are ready for another Clinton however, memories are too recent. Michael most people I know even my current family members who are all liberal democrats will not want to deal with this. So if true, Dean or Edward lick those chops for sure.

Posted by: Samuel at February 12, 2004 10:46 AM

Michael, you forget the influence of intertia. It will take a little while before Kerry dies completely, and in the process he might get enough delagates to force a convention. And you forget Edwards has little name recognition outside of the south.

Posted by: FH at February 12, 2004 10:46 AM

I think a great of support for Kerry is shallow and the ABB (Anybody but Bush) people will have no problem shifting to someone else. Edwards? Or is Hillary possible at this point? Bill has been very supportive of GWB's foreign policy lately, which is wise because if that's neutralized and the election is on domestic policy the emotional tilt might be against Bush even when he's been OK.

Look at how little coverage there's been of the Clear Skies program.

Posted by: miklos rosza at February 12, 2004 10:50 AM

IF....and only if, this is proven true, the following question comes to my mind:

If his own wife can't trust him.....why the hell should I?

Posted by: j at February 12, 2004 11:01 AM

Two things:

First: I want a man of character elected to office. Is that too much to ask for? But all men a fallible, it's true. Will he confess his sin to his wife and repent of it? That would be enough for me. It would show the kind of character I'm looking for in a president.

Second: This will ruin him as a candidate at the national level, whether he repents or not. However, inertia will propell to the top of the Democratic heap, which spells defeat for the Dems in Nov.

Posted by: David at February 12, 2004 11:07 AM

From Ann-on-a-mouse:

"Question one: Saddam Hussein sees Clinton in office. He sends a spicy little Iraqi number to the White House. Does Clinton take the bait? The problem isn't whether he does or not. The problem is, we're not really sure, are we."

What exactly is a "spicey Iraqi number"? One that let's both eyes show through the Bhurka?

Just kidding of course...seriously though, this "Drudge Report" reads like a supermarket tabloid. I'm smelling bullshit so I'll wait until the air clears before I get too exited.

Posted by: Joe at February 12, 2004 11:31 AM

For me it would be a question of stupidity. Didn't Kerry know he was running for president? Didn't he know that 'an intern' might be a poor choice for an affair while running for President considering the minor problem a certain recent President had? Sheesh, make some minor political calculations and go for someone safer--like a Hooters waitress or something. I don't believe we are in Gary Hart territory where any infidelity is automatically a big deal. But an INTERN! Sheesh.

Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at February 12, 2004 11:36 AM

Yes, the parallels to Clinton are obvious. And we all know how badly Clinton did in elections, and how poorly the country fared under him.

Thanks for doing Kerry a favor, guys. You might make a stiff politician more human.

Posted by: Mithras at February 12, 2004 11:42 AM

Mithras has a point. Likeability is the key to election, not character. Clinton was very likeable, and capable (though spineless).

Infedility might actually make Kerry more sexy a candidate to the Dems and the undecided--more likeable.

Posted by: David at February 12, 2004 11:51 AM

I think the country (and certainly the Democratic Party) has already decided this issue. Marital infidelity and committing perjury to cover it up are not disqualifiers for high public office. I suspect Kerry will contritely come forth very quickly. I suspect that then any bashing over the issue will be viewed as being "mean." He'll survive and be the Dem nominee.

The lack of judgement and character shown by Kerry, in doing this would certainly prevent me from voting for him however.

Posted by: spc67 at February 12, 2004 11:55 AM

spc67: The lack of judgement and character shown by Kerry, in doing this would certainly prevent me from voting for him however.

But you already weren't going to vote for him anyway, right?

This might sink Kerry in a primary. But I doubt very many people who would have been willing to vote for him for president would switch to Bush over this issue.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at February 12, 2004 12:01 PM

Its not about sex.

It is about breaking an oath.

Just like it was said with Clinton (and proved to be true), you can't trust a man who will betray his own wife.

It is that simple.

Posted by: Roark at February 12, 2004 12:04 PM

That sound you hear in the corner? Howard Dean is licking his chops.

Could it also be the Internet's army of photoshoppers as well?

Posted by: Ryan at February 12, 2004 12:07 PM

I think the impact of this brewing scandal on Kerry depends largely on the details. If he paid off his girlfriend to keep her mouth shut and leave the country until the election was over, there are some implications that most people would care about, even Democrats. And if the woman was an employee who felt pressured to put out for the boss to keep her job, the people who actually care about the status of women and workers in general would probably care, even some of the so-called feminists.

But if it was just some casual sex between two consenting adults who just happened to be horny and in the same room at the same time, then yeah, it's no big deal, and the reactions of feigned outrage will be par for the partisan course.

One implication that's probably certain is that Kerry the philanderer can't very well choose Hillary to be his running mate.

Posted by: Richard Bennett at February 12, 2004 12:10 PM

::shakes his head::

sigh....

Ya know, I gotta go the stupid route. Not literally of course, the guy went to Yale and all, but geeeeez, I'm surprised politicians of either sex ever allow themselves to even be in a room alone with anyone they haven't known and trusted for decades.

Posted by: crionna at February 12, 2004 12:29 PM

Is it too much to conclude from Clinton, that the moral weakness, the self-destructive arrogance, and the lousy decision-making that lay behind Monica also pointed towards the ethical lapses and other disappointing behavior of his administration? It seems to me, Kerry has many of Clinton's weaknesses (to which we may be adding the intern) but few of Clinton's assets. Where Clinton has an "aw shucks" element of human weakness about him, Kerry seems deeply anti-personal. Hence the pretty weak nature of his support among Democrats. He wins because he is "most electable" not because people are actively drawn to him.

Should the stories be true, it seems to me they will two effects. (1) The efforts to portray him as the heroic, virtuous man will take a fierce beating. (2) How he reacts, and the nature of his persona he reveals in reacting, may in fact affect those who right now are more likely to vote for him.

All it means for Republicans, is renewed fears that Hillary! rolls in to "save" a fractured convention.

Posted by: Hacksaw at February 12, 2004 12:48 PM

David and Mithras - Yes, elections are about personality, but there's also a phenomenon which some call "Clinton Fatigue."

Michael - There are a lot of polls out there that say "Kerry beats Bush head-to-head." This is the type of story which may change the minds of the people in the middle. Spc67 and people like him may indeed have the chance to express themselves with a vote soon enough.

We should also take into account the fact that Kerry support may be a bubble, i.e., people may be voting for Kerry because they think everyone else is doing it too. On the issues, Dems are actually split evenly between Dean and Kerry, but on the voting, Kerry is obviously far ahead. (Hmm. Dems seem to have something for bubbles lately.) If it's truly a bubble, this is the type of story that has the power to pop it.

Posted by: Ann On A Mouse at February 12, 2004 12:49 PM

Allowing,of course,that any of this is true,OK?

Assuming that Kerry should fall by the wayside,wouldn't that make Edwards the almost certain nominee?Also,wouldn't he (Edwards) present a far more formidable challenge to President Bush than Kerry?After all,Edwards has so far been the only Dem candidate who's gotten the idea that one needs to be something more than just the latest anti-Bush.

The only weak point for Edwards is his lack of experience in foreign policy and defense matters.Of course,he could balance that by nominating as VP a man with "unimpeachable" merits in both fields.A fellow Democrat.A Southerner.

Ladies and Gentlemen,it's the Edwards - Clark ticket!

Posted by: Jussi Hšmšlšinen at February 12, 2004 12:59 PM

Back to Earth..

Even if this scandal is more than hot air,it doesn't mean that Kerry is done for.Bill Clinton fought back successfully similar charges,and we know that Kerry is not a quitter.He'll come out swinging (har har,excuse the pun.)

Posted by: Jussi Hšmšlšinen at February 12, 2004 01:03 PM

Sigh...

In this week's news:

Janet Jackson's boob on tv!
Gay Marrige - the birth or death of society!
President Bush can't prove that he didn't go AWOL 30 years ago!
John Kerry maybe had an extramarital affair with an intern!

Ugh... haven't we all got better things to do?

Posted by: steve at February 12, 2004 01:15 PM

But you already weren't going to vote for him anyway, right?

Right.

This might sink Kerry in a primary.

How could the party that stayed behind Clinton reasonably use this to disqualify Kerry?

But I doubt very many people who would have been willing to vote for him for president would switch to Bush over this issue.

I agree. If he comes forward quickly and contritely, this goes away.

Posted by: spc67 at February 12, 2004 01:26 PM

spc67: How could the party that stayed behind Clinton reasonably use this to disqualify Kerry?

Because it's not too late to pick a new nominee with less baggage. Obviously I don't know if they will pick another nominee or not. But if Kerry's best trait is that he's supposedly electable, this could hurt him if the Dems fear centrists will be turned off by it.

I don't think the Dems really understand what centrists are looking for. At least they don't understand what this centrist voter is looking for. Oh well.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at February 12, 2004 01:31 PM

The whole question isn't really about getting tail, it is, however, one of character and leadership.

I am not going to make the assertion that a lapse of judgement is prime evidence of malfesance. I will, however, suggest that the way he chooses to handle this (assuming it's true) that will expose his strengths or weaknesses. Specifically, now that he's found himself in a ditch, will he dig out or dig deeper. Nixon and Clinton both went for bedrock. Reagan, good bad or indifferent, otherwise, didn't claim executive privlige and went out of his way to get as many documents as possible out into the sunlight.

What Kerry does remains yet to be seen.

Posted by: Anticipatory Retaliation at February 12, 2004 01:47 PM

Can't we talk about issues that really matter like Islamic fundamentalists bent on the destruction of western civilization and a return to the Caliphate? Millions starving in North Korea so that Kim Jong Il and his cronies can shake down the United States and the world community? The mullahs in Iran and their crackdown on the god-given right of all human beings to be free and elect their own leaders? The ongoing conflict in Iraq and the best way to move that country forward into the community of nations? The overstretching of the US military and whether "transformation" or an increase in the size of the military is the appropriate course of action? Not to mention the economy...

In my opinion, the media in this country has proven their moral bankruptcy in the past few weeks. In the most important times in recent history, with issues from war and peace to our economic well-being, the media has decided that none of that is important. What really matters to them is whether Bush was in Alabama in the fall of '72 and whether or not Kerry is boffing a 20-year old.

Who the f--- cares about the media and their psuedo-scandals. It's obvious they don't give a lick about the issues that the rest of us face today.

Posted by: Clay Ranck at February 12, 2004 01:53 PM


I'm not sure that's what this would be about, if it turns out to be true. After past rumored shenanigans with the first wife, and now this; what exactly is a Kerry oath worth? Does his word mean anything? If he can so easily and apparently often cheat on a spouse, why would anyone take anything he says seriously? Its not that hard to remain true to your vows, really.
This is not a sign of weakness. That would be sneaking a Heshey's after swearing off sweets for New Years'. This would be yet another indication that the man can both stand on both sides of a fence at the same time, and also that his word is worthless. This is the best opposition to Bush that can be found?

Posted by: Odd at February 12, 2004 01:56 PM

If this turns out to be true, (if), then the issue should not be about marital infidelity but about abuse of power. This was not some other rich heiress, but an intern, a subaltern. After all, aren't the Democrats the party of the righteous who care for the downtrodden, the oppressed, etc. etc.? If Kerry were a Republican, the party of the righteous who care for the family, then it would be a question of marital betrayal. But for Democrats, to be at all consistent, it has to be about (white, why not?) male abuse of power. And as we know, there are no pecadilloes here. Every sin is mortal. So if it's true, off with his head.

Posted by: Stephen at February 12, 2004 02:01 PM

Michael,

I don't think the Dems really understand what centrists are looking for. At least they don't understand what this centrist voter is looking for. Oh well.

The TNR folks claim that the D primary voters are not choosing the candidate they prefer (based on the candidates position on issues etc), but the one they think is most electable, i.e. will be preferred by other people.

This goes a long way towards explaining the massive weirdness we have been seeing in the primary so far. I think a lot of D primary voters prefer candidates other than the one they voted for.

It'll be interesting to see how it works out.

Posted by: Fredrik Nyman at February 12, 2004 02:50 PM

Kerry campaign headquarters still has no comment on the Dudge story. But a spokesperson did announce that Kerry has switched his campaign theme song to the David Lee Roth version of "Just A Gigolo".

Posted by: DennisThePeasant at February 12, 2004 03:09 PM

spc67,

I agree. If he comes forward quickly and contritely, this goes away.

Disagree. If true, this won't go away.

Two reasons. One is that it raises questions about Kerry's character. His behavior towards his ex-wife when she became ill was rather un-gentlemanly (=he dumped her and went on to find another rich heiress). If these accusations are true, it reinforces the view that the only thing that matters to John Kerry is John Kerry. The opportunism and expediency he displays both in his personal life and politically is extraordinary.

Second reason: Character matters. Clinton's character defects significantly reduced his effectiveness in office (perhaps especially regarding Iraq), and this hurt everyone. I don't think the D's want to go through another round of defending the indefensible and tying themselves in knots, especially not for a candidate they don't really care for.

Posted by: Fredrik Nyman at February 12, 2004 03:10 PM

Mithras:

"You might make a stiff politician more human."

Interesting choice of words, given the context.

Posted by: DennisThePeasant at February 12, 2004 06:29 PM

As an independent, who did not vote for Bush (or Gore), I say the "It didn't hurt Clinton" stuff is irrelevant. Clinton was Teflon coated, and the incumbent.. Kerry is neither, and comes into the picture as a potential "best of the rest" kind of choice (after Hilary). Much more fragile, he's Humpty Dumpty on the wall whereas Clinton was a rubber ball.

Posted by: Terry Ott at February 13, 2004 05:10 AM

Dennis, this is no time for joking around. Maybe you can't sympathize, but Senator Kerry has people under him, and it's hard.

Posted by: Jim at February 13, 2004 08:02 AM

In an earlier comment, Clay Ranck tells us he thinks we should not care very much about the private life of a politician --- that we should be focused on the issues. I disagree; we cannot ignore either one. Here is my reply to Clay:

It is too simplistic to say, IMO, we should be focused on the "issues", not the personal life. That is no more realistic a position than the necon's seeming contention that you are either "for us" (and patriotic) or "against us" (and a traitor). We KNOW you can be "against" and still have the best interests of the country at heart. And I would contend you can be concerned about the issues and also be steadfast in wanting to know about image and integrity.

So, you should care about the issues AND care deeply about the moral character of the candidates who take positions on those issues. Those who are serious about government and politics have the capacity to deal with both, and those who are not should be.

I think one should be concerned about multiple "I-words" in the context of choosing a candidate to support: Issues, Integrity, Image, Imagination, Inclusiveness. My litmus test spans all of these. Image is the least important in one sense, but the most important in another --- I want someone who exudes the image of a calm, competent, grounded and consistent, world-wise leader. That goes to electability as much as anything else does.

Integrity goes to the strength of character, the creation of an aura of trustworthiness. It is what makes a nation sleep well at night --- thinking, "I can't know about everything, but the guy who is in charge can be counted upon to (1) tell the truth, (2) stick to his guns for the beliefs he professes to have, (3) not get mixed up in his dirty laundry to the extent that it is going to weigh heavily on him/her while in office. So, I think that leading a close-to-impeccable personal life IS important in the whole matter of suitability to govern. I do not want a leader whose judgements have to made with an eye toward keeping the lid on ugly "news", or one who has reason to be worried every day about how to keep his marriage from falling apart or being sued by some opportunist.

So, I would argue that image and integrity (in personal life as well as public life, for they are inseparable when you wield great power) are highly important criteria for the President.

The problem with my "5 I's" is that while I can sometimes find a candidate to get enthused about (especially early on), the odds of that candidate emerging to take a major party nomination seem slight. Tragic.

In this race, while I don't yet know enough about him, Edwards seems to be a possible qualifier. Lieberman might have been, too, but I think the "image thing" got to him (not exciting enough) and his positions on the issues may have been too "mainstream" to qualify him to carry the banner in the eyes of zealots.

Kerry has problems across the board, I am afraid. That's what happens when you have a party pinning its hopes on one whom few are enthusiastic about. They tend to be "not horrible" on any dimension, but "not compelling" on any either. Integrity can sink someone like this.

Posted by: Terry Ott at February 13, 2004 08:46 AM

I must say, I find it somewhat distressing that so few people even care about infidelity anymore, whether this story ends up being true or not.
It used to actually matter what kind of person a man was, not just what he said at a press conference when the microphones are on.
As a man gives his vow to remain faithful when he marries, why don't you care that he can so cavelierly toss that aside? Or that he can so effortlessly hurt those he has 'sworn' he loves?
We are shocked, shocked if a president is involved in a rinky-dink break-in, he must go! But cheating on your wife, disregarding vows, casually hurting and humiliating supposed loved ones? Nah, no biggie, as long as you say at debates what people want to hear (even if it conflcits sharply with your legislative record--we don't care about that either)

Posted by: Odd at February 13, 2004 11:53 AM

Jim-

Your post about my post rude, uncalled for, and juvenile.

Needless to say, I enjoyed it very much.

Posted by: DennisThePeasant at February 13, 2004 07:24 PM

Be wiser than other people if you can; but do not tell them so.

Posted by: O'Brien Megan at May 3, 2004 10:13 AM

The professor makes the syllabus, not you.

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