January 29, 2004
Retiring Deanophobia (Updated)
A few days ago I said Howard Dean is probably toast. Then I felt foolish. Who says? Me? The heck do I know? I don’t think anyone predicted the primary race so far. The silent majority of the Democratic Party gave the media and the blogosphere the middle finger in Iowa.
However. If there’s anyone in America who worried more about Howard Dean than Jonathan Chait, I don’t know who it is. Today he shut down his Diary of a Dean-o-phobe blog at The New Republic. That should tell us something.
My work here is done.And good work it was.
UPDATE: William Swann at the Centrist Coalition reports that some of Dean's biggest supporters in the blogosphere are done with him, too.
It's sad to see a dream die.
(Says the Bush 2004 voter...)
Posted by: Jeff B. at January 29, 2004 07:15 AMNot only is John Kerry a bore, but he'll have to choose someone even MORE boring as his running mate so as not to be outshined (this guarantees he won't pick John Edwards). Perhaps Ben Stein could be persuaded to switch parties.
Posted by: David at January 29, 2004 09:01 AMI must admit to a certain amount of Schadenfreude watching Comet Dean and his band of arrogant, self-righteous, we-have-a-new-better-way-of-doing-things activists plunge back to earth.
Of course, as a conservative? I wanted him to win the nomination. Oh well.
Posted by: spc67 at January 29, 2004 09:14 AMI will write a play about the Dean phenomenon.
I shall call it "Howard's End"
Posted by: Mike Silverman at January 29, 2004 01:03 PMMichael -
Well, last night I found out that my dad is a Deanie - I was cruzing the fec.gov money database, and my dad's name popped up with a $500 contribution to Dean in July '03. He was a Scoop Jackson Dem in the 60's and 70's. I think it shows how much anti-Bush animus has shaped Democratic thinking.
Posted by: Adam Sullivan at January 29, 2004 01:22 PMI believe his loss in Iowa was due to his supporters frightening approach. A hoard of twenty somthings will only not sway Iowa votes, but will scare them to death. The Iowa defeat gave his campaign a huge punch in the gut and New Hampshire knocked his campaign back where it belongs.
Hopefully the Dems will keep it together and bring home a victory for John Kerry.
Posted by: andrew at January 29, 2004 01:32 PMIt was inevitable. Dean just delivered the death blow to something that Arnold Schwarzenegger had already badly damaged: the mythos of the political outsider.
Between California turning into a laughing stock, cowboy Bush's failure to deliver the 300,000 new jobs each month that he promised and finally Dean's jackass antics after losing Iowa, outsiders are out. The public has watched as 'outsiders' make big promises and turn out to be the inept morons or loons that they clearly were all along.
America is ready for the grownups to come home and put things back in order. Someone with experience, gravitas and a sense of moderation. Someone who knows what they're doing, stays to the middle of the road and doesn't play with our lives in some kind of massive, over-priced experiment in radical right or left wing ideology.
It took a few years and a rough hangover, but America is remembering that the President ought to be, well, Presidential. And politics? Yes, it's ok for them to be political again.
Posted by: Jackson Landers at January 29, 2004 02:29 PMI remember reading about Dean in Time magazine back in March. I also remember commenting to myself that how could a person spouting the things he said be a serious presidential contender? Several months later I had to do a sanity check on myself, when Dean looked to be the 04' Democratic candidate.
I think Dean has been pure poison to the democratic party. Dean's rhetoric and rise forced the current candidates to play the "I'm a Bush hater too" theme to compete.
In my humble opinion I think most people want leadership that says "This is who I am and this is what I am for" not the "I am angry and this is what I am against".
Posted by: Ham On Rye at January 29, 2004 03:18 PM"I think Dean has been pure poison to the democratic party."
Dean isn't really pure poison. He was like a bad meal that ended in diarrhea.
Al Sharpton is the real poison in the party. Sharpton should never have been allowed by the party leaders to become the Democratic spokesman for black America. He is a race hustling buffoon. Every time he is given a venue to stand with the top Democrats the moderates and independents are turned off in a way that Dean could never do.
Sharpton is to the Democrats what David Duke was to the Republicans. The Republicans kicked Duke out of the party. The Democrats need to kick Sharpton out of the party but can't do that now that they have legitimized him.
Sharpton is a malignant tumor on the body of the Democratic party.
Posted by: Reid at January 29, 2004 05:32 PMWho?
Posted by: Jim at January 29, 2004 07:50 PMSee David & Clay & Britt on www.corante.com & www.blaserco.com for technical blog - internet discussions; Dean's not gone, yet. The model is adapting, quickly; and even w/o Trippi at Dean's campaign, the success of Dean energizing the Dems is undeniable.
Bush should be unbeatable, but because of the total, constant, pervasive, (and I think unfair/ untrue) attacks by Bush-haters, he is NOT unbeatable. Or, he's at least as vulnerable today as Dean was likely to lead the Dems a month ago.
Posted by: Tom Grey at January 30, 2004 02:58 AMDean only energized the Democratic party (outside of his hardcore supporters) in the sense of showing us what the party could look like if we don't get out there and fight him. He got us all concerned about getting the mainstream Democratic message out before he has too much success in claiming to speak for all of us.
As far as constant attacks are concerned, I actually don't think that the really nasty ones have worked at all. Voters get angry at mud-flingers now, even if it's true. Bush is being weakened by his failure to deliver the 300,000 new jobs per month that he promised, his lack of concern about the enormous deficit that he created and the fact that his foreign and domestic policy is waaay farther to the Right than the moderate direction that he promised in 2000. Voters can see these truths plain as day all around them. So long as he hasn't amended those problems in a convincing way, a moderate and respectable Democrat like Edwards or Kerry is going to have a pretty easy time getting to 51% or better without having to fling mud.
Posted by: Jackson Landers at January 30, 2004 06:04 AM"Voters can see these truths plain as day all around them."
Right. Remind me to have my eyesight checked.
"Bush is being weakened by his failure to deliver the 300,000 new jobs per month that he promised,"
So you're suggesting that Comrade Edwards could get Gosplan back on track?
"his lack of concern about the enormous deficit that he created"
You may be on to something here, although there is, you know, a war on. Deficits do tend to spike on such occasions, although this one is hardly enormous by historical or international standards. Just look how much interest rates have shot up. Ooops, they haven't.
What economic impact would you have predicted a major terroist attack on U.S. soil would have had? Seems to me we've pretty well dodged some serious bullets.
"and the fact that his foreign and domestic policy is waaay farther to the Right than the moderate direction that he promised in 2000."
Odd, that someone whose analysis is so reactionary would speak as if this were a bad thing. The world has changed. You have not. You're on the right now, defending an obsolete status quo. Thankfully, our president is more agile.
Posted by: Ged of Earthsea at January 30, 2004 07:54 AMJackson,
You are projecting my friend. The collective body of "American People" aren't as disillusioned with Bush as have painted. No one is pleased with everything, but any politician with greater than 50% popularity has soft support somewhere. Kerry or Edwards getting more than 50% of the vote is a stretch. Throw in a Perot type, a win with a plurality of votes is possible. The last Democrat to get more than 50% of the vote was Jimmy Carter with 50.8 %, your line reads more like a campaign line. That wishful thinking won't help strategize. What are the Democrats going to do other than not be George Bush? Re-read what you said, it's all against Bush. That will guarantee a greater than 50% win for Bush, even if some of that support is soft. Please come up with some better lines than those because as you said:
Voters can see these truths plain as day all around them
I agree but the American people are definitely more apt to vote for something, not against something. George Bush is for a lot of things and focuses on that message, whether you agree with those things or not. Please Democrats surprise this former Gore voter, and focus more on policies you are for rather than againts, and drive those home, good luck.
Posted by: Samuel at January 30, 2004 08:08 AMGed,
How much of that deficit is due to increased spending on the military in a time of war? How much is due to the massive entitlements that Bush has pushed through while simultaneously cutting taxes?
Posted by: sam at January 30, 2004 09:13 AMMichael -- Dean indeed IS toast, and Kerry is being coronated, to my great concern (regarding electibility issues). Nevertheless...
Are your concerns about Dean, and to a lesser extent, Kerry, based on history, i.e. their misreading of what we should have done in Iraq, or are they based on the future? If the latter, just what is it that you're afraid a Dean or Kerry presidency would be unwilling to do? Focusing on Kerry, do you see any evidence that he will cut and run from Iraq earlier than Edwards or Bush (who keeps moving election dates forward and backing down on Shite demands)? Leaving Iraq aside, what do you think needs to be done that Kerry would refuse to do, but that Bush would not hesitate about?
I think an argument can be made that Bush was the right man for the job in 2002 and 2003, but that it is now time to move to a more conciliatory attitude toward the rest of the world, and that maybe Kerry would be better for this. We took out Saadam and that was good. We need to stay there for awhile, even if it requires another supplemental appropriation next fall. But whatever other new ideas are causing the gleam in Dick Cheney's and Richard Perle's eyes these days should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Taking out Assad, or Prince Abdullah, or letting Sharon annex West Bank lands outside the security "fence", or whatever else is being contemplated at the American Enterprise Institute as part of the crusade against terror, COULD BE MADNESS. The next president ought to be confident and willing to use force, but a bit less cocky. Maybe Kerry (despite his disappointing equivocations on the war) would in this regard fit such a bill better than Bush.
Posted by: markus rose at January 30, 2004 09:29 AMMarkus,
Focusing on Kerry, do you see any evidence that he will cut and run from Iraq earlier than Edwards or Bush
Not willing to take the risk stakes are to high!
I think an argument can be made that Bush was the right man for the job in 2002 and 2003
Then why should the voters believe a liberal’s judgment anyway? If it were up to us G.W. Bush wouldn’t have been there!
but that it is now time to move to a more conciliatory attitude toward the rest of the world, and that maybe Kerry would be better for this.
That is the question isn’t it? When does reconciliation become the higher priority? I believe when it does Bush will be there, obviously you don’t, quite frankly I think reconciliation is France’s burden not ours, Markus, your view is one of the greater faults of liberals today. I think most American’s agree with the President on this one.
We took out Saadam and that was good.
But Saadam wouldn’t be out (and I was against going into Iraq) if it was for the liberals! Again why be trusted? Clinton’s liberal Foreign policy gave us a nuclear Pakistan and a cheating North Korea! Try to pass the buck all you want. I don’t believe the Democrats have the stomach or guts to take such steps.
Liberal’s defanged our ability for intelligence gathering and handcuffed the CIA. Again conciliatory diplomacy alone can’t overcome that! Bush’s credibility has no coattails for Democrats my friend. A lot of people saw Libya throw in the towel, but not through reconciliation, but out of fear being next on the list, I as a life long Democrat I don't see reason for them to fear anyone but Bush. Bush is why we have credibility period! And that is the point he is credible to those most importantly to be credible with, I worry about credibility with Syria and liberals worry about credibility with France! But hey, I think we are at war, and liberals think were ready for diplomacy! F—k France they’ll just tip off the enemy!
Samuel -- you're talking about the past, not the future. All you are saying, basically, is that liberals were wrong in 2002-2003, and so we shouldn't trust them in 2005 and later. And where do you get off saying that "liberals defanged our intelligence gathering..." It's the Democrats that are trying to have hearings and commissions to figure out what went wrong with our intelligence, both regarding Iraq WMD's and also 9.11, and its the Republicans that are doing the stonewalling for purely partisan purposes!
Posted by: markus rose at January 30, 2004 12:55 PM"How much of that deficit is due to increased spending on the military in a time of war? How much is due to the massive entitlements that Bush has pushed through while simultaneously cutting taxes?"
Wow, you really know how to hit a libertarian where it hurts!
;-)
I'm not so crazy about entitlements that end up consisting of huge wealth transfers from the working poor (largely minorities, BTW) and future generations (taxation without representation out the wazoo, baby!) to the retired rich (largely white). Those retired rich, white folks do have a nasty habit of, you know, voting however, and to continue figting the war Bush has to get re-elected.
If the Dems decide to rethink entitlements, hey, I'll be the first to listen. Call me crazy, but I don't think folks like Jackson have quite this in mind.
Posted by: Ged of Earthsea at January 30, 2004 12:58 PMMichael did you read Andrew Sullivan's post on Britain post the BBC scandal and Hutton Report?
Most Britainers don't like Blair and trust the Beeb more, at 30%, 10% for Blair, for honesty, etc..
http://www.andrewsullivan.com/index.php?dish_inc=archives/2004_01_25_dish_archive.html#10754355786940907
Summary -
Worth pondering. Sometimes, American love of Blair reminds me of British fondness of Clinton in the 1990s. The closer you get to both men the more loathing you find. And vice versa. (There's more feedback and criticism of yours truly on the Letters Page.)Posted by: Mike at January 30, 2004 02:03 PM
Markus,
-- you're talking about the past, not the future. All you are saying, basically, is that/ liberals were wrong in 2002-2003, and so we shouldn't trust them in 2005 and later.
Damn straight! Except they have been wrong a hell of lot longer the 2002-2003!!! We all earn our reputations. The Republicans have their negatives. Unfortunately the Democrats aren’t to be taken seriously on “the issue of the day”. The fact that you would, just means you disagree with me. I feel the level or nature of the seriousness, doesn't afford them that opportunity at this time. I expect the American to agree with my perspective of this, however.
And where do you get off saying that "liberals defanged our intelligence gathering..."
Picture Dennis Miller saying that! It would sound like a rhetorical joke! The Republicans aren’t the ones who basically said, ”No dealing with shady people!” Which is actually what happened! That’s like eliminating the FBI witness protection program and then saying, now go get me some mafia gangsters! How can one gather intelligence under such an edict? The Democrats have been naïve on these things for years, now is not the time to risk seeing if they have learned..
It's the Democrats that are trying to have hearings and commissions to figure out what went wrong with our intelligence, both regarding Iraq WMD's and also 9.11, and its the Republicans that are doing the stonewalling for purely partisan purposes!
I would reverse the partisan part of the accusation, you may be right on the stonewalling. But hey, that’s my opinion. Again I believe the majority of the American people will agree with me on that.
Bottom line and more simply put. The Democrats have been referred to as the “Mommy Party” and the Republicans the “Daddy Party”, I believe this is simplistic, but accurate. That isn’t a positive or negative. Both are necessary. I just feel that we live in times when the need of a strong protector outweighs the need for emotional outreach, they both are necessary, only one can play the dominating role at a given moment of time, and that moment is now. Your mainline argument is for emotional outreach, reconciliation. That is premature in my opinion. But Markus please don’t try to make Mom out to be the protector.
Samuel -- I also believe there is some truth to the "mommy party" and "daddy party" designation. Extending the analogy, I would note that good therapists often try to get "mommy" to act more like "daddy" and "daddy" to act more like "mommy" in order to deal with the problems of wayward children and adolescents and other dysfucntional family dynamics. So the Dems need some more backbone.
But to everything there is a season. Along the lines of Tom Friedman, I say that we've said what we needed to say in Iraq, and cracked the heads that needed to be cracked. By all means we can't go wobbily now, and we need to continue to stand up, against Islamism and for Arab political democratization. But we must not go overboard, and we must not too closely identify with Israel...our destinies and challenges are different. The Zionists are a bunch of honkies trying to settle down in the South Bronx or Watts based on a 2000 year old property claim, and they're having a hard time getting their new neighbors to accept them and invite them to the next pig roast. America, on the other hand, is a big, dumb, basically sincere and goodhearted superpower with a soft spot for the universal rights of man and massive amounts of arabian oil.
Post Saadam overthrow, America needs to concentrate on obliterating the Al-Queda crime syndicate from the face of the earth, building a democratic Iraq, and bringing its influence to bear on resolving or at least diffusing the Kashmir and West Bank/Gaza disputes. Beyond that, chill out!!! And vote for Kerry. I guess.
Posted by: Markus rose at January 30, 2004 03:24 PM"Samuel -- you're talking about the past, not the future. All you are saying, basically, is that liberals were wrong in 2002-2003, and so we shouldn't trust them in 2005 and later." Expand that time period back to 1979 at least.
Posted by: Sebastian Holsclaw at January 30, 2004 03:32 PM"I also believe there is some truth to the "mommy party" and "daddy party" designation."
Um, guys, I'm thirty-four years old. Mommies and Daddies were handy to have around when I was eight. Maybe its time for us to be the Mommies and Daddies now?
"The best of all governments is that which teaches us to govern ourselves."
- Goethe
Posted by: Ged of Earthsea at January 30, 2004 04:33 PMGed,
Oh want to "go it alone" do you! Just kidding! :)
Of course you are correct. Analogies rarely lend themselves perfectly. That is why I called these, simplistic. I was talking about foreign policy and leadership anyway. Not personal responsibility, which I agree with you.
Posted by: Samuel at January 30, 2004 05:05 PMWasn't Kerry done 3 weeks ago? I'd hold off on the Dean eulogies.
Posted by: Hei Lun Chan at January 30, 2004 06:20 PMMarkus,
"The Zionists are a bunch of honkies trying to settle down in the South Bronx or Watts based on a 2000 year old property claim, and they're having a hard time getting their new neighbors to accept them"
For your sake I hope no residents of the South Bronx or Watts read this weblog, because your analogy shows them some serious disrespect. Palestinians got booted off their land and had to move down the street; many of the folks in the South Bronx and Watts have ancestors who spent hundreds of years in chains.
Yet they chose not to become suicide bombers but to play a largely unappreciated and certainly undercompensated role in building this country we hold dear with the sweat of their brow and the spirit of their hearts.
See the difference?
Posted by: Ged of Earthsea at January 30, 2004 07:11 PMSamuel,
No sweat, you're still the man. Love your posts. You just hit a pet peeve of mine. The Mommy/Daddy thing comes from a book called "Moral Politics" by George Lakoff. Mr. Lakoff is a Berkeley Linguistics professor who falls comfortably within the leftist fringe MJT has so ably identified.
He just flat out misunderstands why a great many "conservatives" like me are conservative. It's not that we want government to be our Daddy, its that we don't want paternalistic government at all. Sure, Bush is far from perfect here. That's where the "war libertarians" come in, and why I enjoy this blog and am wiling to join forces with "war liberals". Money quote from VodkaPundit:
"The libertarian complaint with this war... is the kneejerk observation that “War is the health of the state." Let’s be blunt here, kids. When foreigners are rearranging the Manhattan skyline because, in part, our women drive cars, then goddamnit it’s time for a healthier state. Or else everything we’ve built here is at literal, physical risk."
Posted by: Ged of Earthsea at January 30, 2004 07:33 PMGed,
Appreciate your response on:
The Zionists are a bunch of honkies trying to settle down in the South Bronx or Watts based on a 2000 year old property claim
I decided to just ignore it. That requires too much of a history lesson and I'm sure you would agree, I'm can be a little to wordy for that!
Posted by: Samuel at January 30, 2004 07:44 PMA Deaniac acquaintance of mine has pulled his hair out, knashed his teeth and pounded his head against the wall. He is mad at Dean, his handlers and the Democratic party and especially at Kerry and Edwards (he thinks Clark is a nut-case)and threatens to "boycott" the general election if Dean isn't the Democratic nominee.
One can only encourage him in his endeavors.
Posted by: gmroper at January 31, 2004 06:56 PMExcuse the correction, gmroper, but the poor disillusioned Deanophile gnashed his teeth. Knash is a Norwegian dietary staple.
Posted by: Zhombre at January 31, 2004 09:07 PMZhombre, thanks for the correction, I have gno idea what happened to my g in knashed, the thought that it came out as a k rather than g really bothers me. On the other hand, it's nothing gnu that I'm a bad speller.
Cheers
Posted by: gmroper at February 1, 2004 07:08 AMSebastian,
When you typed "Expand that time period back to 1979 at least." you did mean 1779 didn't you?
Posted by: Rick Ballard at February 1, 2004 12:34 PMI'll bet Al Gore feels like a total idiot.
Posted by: David at February 1, 2004 02:14 PMI'll bet George W. Bush is a total idiot.
Posted by: Elizabeth Reed at February 2, 2004 08:30 AMDavid and Elizabeth,
And if I voted for Clinton and then Al Gore (Which I did), and then decided to vote for G.W. Bush this time...
Does that make me
a) characterless(Clinton)
b) feel or act like an idiot(Gore)
c) prove I'm an idiot(Bush)
d) I have learned that character and principle counts.
The answer is d) and I don't care what you may think. Bush is not idiot Elizabeth, fools claim people to be idiots, Gore has acted like an idiot though.
Posted by: Samuel at February 2, 2004 01:52 PMI'm more and more, in agreement with Totten and Paul Berman, seeing the left and paleoliberals as people who regard tolerance as only extending to people who agree with them; who regard opponents as embeciles and simians and worse; who are blinded by their own prejudices and rancor; and thoughtlessly murder their own ideals.
Posted by: Zhombre at February 2, 2004 02:04 PMI have to agree with Zhombre (even if he did give me a spelling correction). One one of the blogs I noticed someone put up (regarding the jackson timberlake boobtube extravaganza- pun intended)that the human breast is commonly seen in Europe and it's really not a big deal. Having grown up in Germany, I'd have to agree. However, this isn't Europe. The left who DEMANDS that we be multicultural and open-minded fails miserably in understanding that they are not mindful of other cultures in America, ones that wouldn't approve of a breast being shown, and that being open-minded doesn't mean that you shove your open-mindedness in others faces.
Sigh, as Zhombre noted "...the left and paleoliberals as people who regard tolerance as only extending to people who agree with them..."
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