January 28, 2004

My Guy in Third

Iím disappointed in New Hampshire. John Kerry and Howard Dean over John Edwards? Sigh.

I suppose itís better than Wesley Clark and Al Sharpton clobbering Howard Dean.

I still have a little bit of hope that Edwards will do well in the South and at least take Dean off the board. But maybe Iím the guy Gerard Van der Leun is talking about.

Watching these sad captains who were sane enough a few months back to say "goodbye to all that" warming to this, that, or the other Bozo bobbing to the surface of the tank is depressing. It's like watching a drunk who has finally wised up to the dangers of drink; who's gone on the wagon, gone to the meeting, suddenly start sniffing damp wine corks in the Boom-Boom Room while clutching a club soda.
I do think Edwards is better than that. A Bozo bobbing to the surface of the tank? Then again, he isnít up at the surface. The cream isnít rising.

A nationwide showdown between Kerry and Dean will be a disaster. Roger L. Simon says why.

[A] two-man race of this sort will push the Democratic Party to the left, particularly on the war. With Dean surging like this, and pushing on Kerry, the contest will become about which candidate more despises the War in Iraq. Intelligent discussion of the most important subject of our day will be minimized.
Andrew Sullivan says Bush is in trouble. And that is probably true. Heís earned every bit of that trouble. But the Democrats arenít gearing up to replace him. They winding themselves up to flail.

I know two people who say they might vote for themselves as write-in candidates for president. They have my sympathy.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at January 28, 2004 12:10 AM
Comments

Michael, calm down bro. Edwards finishing 3rd (or 4th by 0.001% or something) is pretty inconsequential. Look at these two states...Iowa and New Hampshire. Know what's missing? BLACK PEOPLE!!! And moderates as well.

Edwards is well-positioned to capitalize on both the Black and Centrist vote in South Carolina. He's still ahead in the polls. Dean will drop off the face of the earth there, and Kerry might have a much harder time as well.

Worry if Kerry pulls off the upset in SC. Or if he pulls in a very close second. That's what'll really matter. That and Wesley Clark hopefully being Wesley Clark, making a fool of himself. Look for Edwards to win big and for Kerry and Clark to trail miserably...that'll be huge if it happens.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at January 28, 2004 12:45 AM

"John Kerry and Howard Dean over John Edwards?"

Not a big surprise. New Hampshire is practically a suburb of Boston. And Vermont is another neighbor. Do you realize just how long NHers have been reading the names "John Kerry" and "Howard Dean" in their newspapers? How much longer than "John Edwards"? The former, double-digit years. The latter, maybe a few months, if that.

On the other hand, that situation won't repeat again, save in Maine. Which isn't exactly a critical primary state.

Presumably Edwards will take South Carolina, and get some push out of that. Of course, if he doesn't, he's doomed.

I'm keeping my eye on Michigan.

Interesting that Lieberman don't get totally stomped out, although I wouldn't read too much into that.

My hah-hah (in the voice of Nelson from The Simpsons) is that, last I'd looked, Al Sharpton had garnered, in the entire state, a big whopping whole 338 votes. Hah-hah.

Posted by: Gary Farber at January 28, 2004 12:47 AM

Now, wait a minute. It's just ridiculous to say that New Hampshire and Iowa don't have moderates. That's nuts. If those two states aren't crammed with plenty of moderates, what states are?

Posted by: Gary Farber at January 28, 2004 12:48 AM

"Look for Edwards to win big and for Kerry and Clark to trail miserably...that'll be huge if it happens."

No, I'm afraid it won't be. That's what's expected. What would be huge is if it doesn't happen. It's be good for Edwards, as I said, but it's merely a necessary hurdle.

Posted by: Gary Farber at January 28, 2004 12:50 AM

Edwards is far and away Black America's favorite candidate...besides Sharpton. He's Clintonesque. And, the "Two Americas" thing strikes a chord with minorities living in that second one. Trust me.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at January 28, 2004 12:50 AM

Yeah, okay...Iowa and New Hampshire DO have plenty of moderates. BUT the average Democrat in those two places is hardly moderate. Democrats in SC are damned Centrist, they're not in Iowa and NH. That's what I meant.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at January 28, 2004 12:53 AM

Gary,

I lived in Iowa for four years. The whole dang state is moderate. Few loonies of any stripe.

My home state of Oregon is filled to the rafters with every kind of goofball imaginable, plus some extras. In Portland we have, well, you know what we have. And out in the desert in the east there are the other kind. Love the place and the people, though.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at January 28, 2004 12:54 AM

"That's what's expected. What would be huge is if it doesn't happen."...

I gotta disagree with you there, buddy. Edwards is expected to win and if he doesn't he's toast, you're right. But alot of people are crowning John Kerry with frontrunner status and expecting him to kick ass everywhere he goes. Everybody's talking ELECTABILITY and ELECTABILITY he ain't. A distant second or even third in SC would go a long way to bring Kerry down a notch in the eyes of most people. It would reveal his ultimate weakness for all to see: The South.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at January 28, 2004 12:57 AM

A Yankee Ivory Tower Liberal who voted against the War in '91, opposes the Death Penalty on principle, and who's appeared in a million and a half clips arm-in-arm with Michael Dukakis IS NOT ELECTABLE!!!

God, I pray people wake up to this soon.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at January 28, 2004 01:03 AM

Yeah, you know I lived in Seattle for eight years, Michael, so naturally I travelled around the region quite a bit, from up in BC and Vancouver and Victoria, out east into the Inland Empire, and Idaho, and, of course, down through Oregon many many times, including Portland (and down through Khal-ee-for-nee-ah, as Ahnold says).

I've never lived in Iowa, just passed through rapidly a handful of times, but when I was working as a political pollster, I spent months polling Iowans, and have talked to literally thousands of them about their political opinions, which is more than most Iowans have, which is why I think I have some faint grasp of Iowan political opinion. Vilsack is a pretty moderate Democrat, and the Democrats there are a "normal" spread.

I don't know what Grant's definition of a "moderate" is. But New Hampshire used to be one of, if not the most, conservative states in the nation, and while that's dramatically changed in the last twenty years -- something like 65% of the present population are immigrants, including many from Massachusetts -- it's still got plenty of moderates, and not an overwhelming number of looney leftists, as well. Jeanne Shaheen is hardly a raving extremist.

And I'm now living in the People's Republic of Boulder, grew up in NYC, and spent plenty of time in Berkley, so I rather have a grasp of what a true crunchy-granola, save-the-lesbian-vegan-ducks set of folks are, as well. (3/4s of this town.)

And neither Iowa or NH are over-run with them (though, naturally, a university town like Ames always has a nice sprinkling).

I don't have any personal experience to draw on with South Carolina, save for my usual massive amounts of reading, but what South Carolina has is a lot of conservative Democrats, which is apparently what Grant means by "moderates." (Conservative [for Democrats] with an extremely heavy religious component.)

Posted by: Gary Farber at January 28, 2004 01:18 AM

I shouldn't be surprised, but listening to Dean's "I Don't Wanna Be Divided Anymore" speech in New Hampshire, I am tempted to throw a shoe at the screen. No wonder so many people don't vote at all. Yikes. No replies necessary. I'm just disgusted and wanted to record it somewhere.

Posted by: Stephen at January 28, 2004 01:18 AM

"John Kerry with frontrunner status and expecting him to kick ass everywhere he goes."

No, they're not. You really don't seem very familiar with the media punditry on this, but I don't care to go and quote when you can simply read the major papers for yourself. The only folks expecting Kerry to win in SC are Kerry workers. I mean, the man just this week famously said Democrats didn't need to win in the south (an incredibly bone-headed thing to say, even though it may be true -- but you don't say it where it gets into the news, idjit).

"A distant second or even third in SC would go a long way to bring Kerry down a notch in the eyes of most people."

If Kerry does second, it's a triumph, because he'll have killed Clark where Clark needed to do well, and won't have allowed either Sharpton or Lieberman to harm him. Second in SC for Kerry is a triumph. Third is entirely comfortably survivable as long as he's winning elsewhere.

"It would reveal his ultimate weakness for all to see: The South."

Sigh. You say this like you've discovered Superman's weakness is kryptonite. You've got it in reverse. If a Massachusetts liberal can do at all well anywhere in the south, it's a triumph. If not, it's meeting expectations. As Kerry discussed, if you look at the electoral college numbers, it's perfectly plausible for the Democrat to lose the entire south, so long as they maintain all the Democratic states, and capture some of the swings in the southwest and midwest. I won't run through all the numbers for you, Grant; I'm sure you do math perfectly well.

Posted by: Gary Farber at January 28, 2004 01:25 AM

Just for the record, I have no opinion as yet as to Kerry's national electability. There are too many things we don't yet know about his abilities or disabilities in a national campaign. That's what this campaign will test. The Republicans will dump all over him this week, and how he handles it will be a significant test. And then there will be more.

Kerry has strengths and weaknesses, and I'm making no predictions yet as to which will come out on top. The whole thing remains, right now, a very active ball-game, to use a cliche.

Posted by: Gary Farber at January 28, 2004 01:29 AM

Uuugh...alright, I'll try and explain this whole "moderate" thing again. Culturally, Iowa is hardly Oregon I suppose, but Iowa Democrats (of the activist variety) are traditionally some of the most pacifist/isolationist Dems anywhere in the U.S.

And as for New Hampshire...again, hardly Oregon I suppose. Still though, it's the Northeast and it's also probably the most libertarian state in the country.

South Carolina Democrats ARE a whole of alot more religious AND a whole hell of alot more Centrist too. This matters though, because South Carolina is pretty much like the rest of the country in that regard. South Carolina is far and away the closest thing to a microcosm of the country so far.

Bottom Line: Democrats have to win at least a Southern State or two to win nationally. If they're not viable in SC, they're not viable in the South and they can't win. Period.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at January 28, 2004 01:32 AM

As for the "without any southern states" theory, it's kinda funny because I'm usually the one making it. Yes, it is possible for a Dem to win the election with no southern states. But it takes extraordinary genius, luck, and a very weak opponent. Sue me if I'm doubtful, here.

Best case scenario for 04: Retain all the Gore2000 states (which will be damn near impossible to do). Pick up New Hampshire. Pick up Nevada by campaigning the shit out of Yucca Mountain. Pick up one more state somewhere, otherwise it's a 269-269 tie.

Yeah, I do math.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at January 28, 2004 01:38 AM

And Kerry's a fool for speaking of looking South as a "mistake". He may very well be right. But the danger in saying that is that you alienate other must-win Midwestern types by coming off as incredibly elitist. Oh, but that's right...Kerry could never come off as elitist to begin with, could he?

Posted by: Grant McEntire at January 28, 2004 01:43 AM

Glad you do math, Grant. I agree that the "no-South" strategy really pushes things, though, of course, it's not like any sane Democrat would try to lose there; if a couple of states can be peeled off, it works much more easily. Florida and Tennesee, say, might be doable. Just for instance.

I already called Kerry an idiot for being caught saying what he said, so you can see we're in agreement on that.

But this whole "moderate," etc., thing still has me scratching my head. If Iowa Dems are "traditionally some of the most pacifist/isolationist Dems anywhere in the U.S.," what does that make Western Washington Democrats, California Democrats, New York City Democrats, Washington, D.C. Democrats, Maryland Democrats, Massachussetts Democrats, Vermont Democrats, urban Michigan Democrats, or Eastern Pennsylvannia Democrats? Moderates? How about those moderate urban Ohions who elected conservative Dennis Kucinich?

And where do the conservative Democrats live?

I'm trying to figure out your spectrum. If South Carolina Democrats are the "moderates," who, exactly, are the "conservatives?

Posted by: Gary Farber at January 28, 2004 02:14 AM

I'm pretty comfortable with where this is going. Dean is toast. He can spend all the money he wants, but he's not a statesman and can't get the nomination. He's drunk or dreaming.

It's down to Kerry, Edwards, and Clark. Clark is something of a nut, and he's only been in the party two years. He ain't getting the nomination, either.

The big primary states have a choice between Kerry, arm in arm with Dukakis and Teddy (the latter being the larger liability, no pun intended); or Edwards, who does a pretty good Bubba imitation, only apparently without the financial and sexual sleaze.

If the Dems go with Kerry, the left wing of the party will get what it deserves -- four more years of Bush. If Edwards or his surrogates can make that case clearer, he'll be the nominee.

Posted by: jack bog at January 28, 2004 03:12 AM

Iowa? Moderate? My God, man! Have You Seen them eat??

Posted by: funhawg at January 28, 2004 03:31 AM

Michael, you are quite right about the Dems gearing up to FLAIL, but not because of Kerry, Dean, Edwards or Clark, but because they are barking up the wrong tree. Bush is probably not vulnerable over Iraq, but is decidely vulnerable over spending, immigration and possibly his "Cowboy Arrogance" at least as perceived by some of the electorate.

If the Dems get their act together and they don't make the mistake of the Republicans in '96 or '98, e.g., get off the "hatred" bandwagon and attack Bush on the merits of day to day American life, they can take back the WH.

In South Texas where I live, for example, the Repubs could make big inroads into the Democrat base if they would run on the slogan "If the Democrats have run South Texas since the late 1800's (and they have) how come we're still poor?"

If the Dems do a positive election much as the Contract with America campaign of '94, they will do well indeed. If they play the hatred (of Bush) card like the Repubs played the hatred (of Clinton) card, they will go down in defeat, just as the Republicans lost in '96 and '98. BUT, if the Repubs are smart (sometimes a debatable issue) they will paint the Dems efforts as uberliberals with no plan except throwing money at various competing constituencies and play off those constituencies against each other.

At least those are my thoughts.

Posted by: gmroper at January 28, 2004 05:35 AM

Oregon is the home of the Tom Metzgers and Rachel Corries of America.

Don't worry about black voters. If there's one bloc of voters the Democrats can count on, that is the black vote, no matter who the nominee is. Bush got 8% of the black vote last time, I see him getting less than 5% this time.

Posted by: JJ Walker at January 28, 2004 07:42 AM

I'm seriously wondering how many more primaries will have to pass before we realize none of us have a predictive clue. Not the pollsters, not the "pro" pundits in the media, or the "amateur" pundits online. Our collective record is dismal. A mere 20 days ago, the conventional wisdom was that Dean would win Iowa and New Hampshire, Kerry was burnt toast, and Clark would be the Front-Runner Alternative.

Today, Kerry won a higher percentage in New Hampshire than any primary candidate has there in decades, Clark is burnt toast, and the Front-Runner Alternative is ... Dean.

Why do we think anyone is going to do any better predicting the outcomes in seven states next Tuesday?

Posted by: Reid at January 28, 2004 08:07 AM

Grant,

South Carolina is far and away the closest thing to a microcosm of the country so far.

If you mean (as I believe you do) that South Carolina's Democratic Party is a microcosm of the United States that is probably true. The state in total is probably the most Conservative if not Republican.

Bottom Line: Democrats have to win at least a Southern State or two to win nationally. If they're not viable in SC, they're not viable in the South and they can't win. Period.

Nothing truer said because Bush will win a few more Rust belt States, I was looking at Party affiliation trends and Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin look very bad for the Democrats write now. In fact even if Bush were to lose Florida (which he will not), if were to win Iowa (10% gain in Republican affiliation) and Minnesota (6% gain in Republican affiliation) he would win despite a Florida loss due to congressional reapportionment.

Michael,

As far as Bush being in trouble? Well Bush may be in trouble with Andrew Sullivan and I agree that he has placed himself in a situation where all his supporters have a beef with him on some things, but when has that not been the case? I had a beef with Clinton on a ton of issues. No politician has won a pure majority (not plurality which has been the norm since 1988) without a good fat portion of that vote lacking in enthusiasm, but isn’t that somewhat of a normal Jeffersonian “lesser of two evils” situation there Mr. Tom Paine (MJT)? I remember that Reagan in the polls on specific issues polled terribly, below 50% on virtually everything, I mean maybe one issue where he polled above 50%. But when it came to those intangibles, leadership, likeability, trustworthiness, he polled well. I see the same thing with Bush. It would take one damn talented individual and a complete dive on Bush’s favorability/leadership/trustworthiness ratings to open that door, he wins the “lesser of two evils” against everyone, including Edwards in this crop of candidates.

Posted by: Samuel at January 28, 2004 08:09 AM

Actually I think Andrew Sullivan and the rest of the punditocracy may be in trouble, with their prognostications falling flat. Kerry's revival and Dean's crash in Iowa may be proof that the internet doesn't vote or move the vote. Or possibly that the smart people on the internet are looking at porn or e-bay.

Posted by: Zhombre at January 28, 2004 08:25 AM

Oregon is the home of the Tom Metzgers and Rachel Corries of America.
Ouch, dude.

I take issue with that actually. Oregon is home to some of those people (but hey, let's be a little more specific, Eugene and parts of Portland are really the only places I've ever seen them in great concentration), but the Oregon I grew up in wasn't like that at all. And hell, the most extreme examples of the Corrie types were imports who are out of touch with the native Oregonians I grew up with.

Oregon is a fairly split state.

Posted by: Nathan at January 28, 2004 08:46 AM

Nathan: the most extreme examples of the Corrie types were imports who are out of touch with the native Oregonians I grew up with.

That is definitely true. I'm a native, too.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at January 28, 2004 08:58 AM

Gary,

There are too many things we don't yet know about his abilities or disabilities in a national campaign. That's what this campaign will test.

Is there any reason to believe that Kerry will do any better than other New England Democrats, such as Dukakis?

Especially in the South, which appears to have become more conservative?

And especially with Kerry pushing the Democrat orthodoxy on taxes, spending, school choice, guns and abortion, which is outside the mainstream?

The Republicans will dump all over him this week, and how he handles it will be a significant test.

I don't think so. It makes much more sense for them to let the other Democrats attack Kerry and save their ammo for whoever is left standing after the D nomination process is over.

Posted by: Fredrik Nyman at January 28, 2004 08:58 AM

Fredrik Nyman,

I agree that the Republicans would be foolish to dump over all of them now, even if they had the resources. The comparative war chest the Republicans to Democrats have and will have is nothing short of astronomical, and that makes a difference, just ask Bob Dole (who would have lost anyway) but was further hampererd by lack of funds.

Zhombre,

I agree with you the punditocracy has been very wrong of late, and even earlier. The 2002 mid-term elections I was still solidly with the Democrats at that time and was flabbergasted! That is why as I said earlier. I just compare Clinton as a Campaigner up againts Bush I and he was way better, yet it still took Perot to split the base to give Clinton the win with 43%. I see the Bush of 2004 a better campaigner than any of these including Edwards. I don't care what Andrew Sullivan says or anyone else I don't see that happening this year. Now 2008? A definate possibility of a Social Conservative/Libertarian slug-fest with a what should be un-electable Hillary possibly winning.

Posted by: Samuel at January 28, 2004 10:17 AM

The notion that "Bush is in Trouble" as stated by Andrew Sullivan and linked by you is pretty lame. This impression is inevitable every 4 years when the opposition party virtually monopolizes the political airwaves during the early primaries. Aided by a sympathetic press, the dems have been pummelling Bush on a 24/7 basis for months with essentially no reply from the repubs. So it's not surprising that pundits like Sullivan buy into the zeitgeist and proclaim Bush to be in trouble. It is a shallow and silly comment and does not reflect well on the longterm perspicacity of the commentator. Just look at the Dean predictions a couple of weeks ago to get a feel for how quickly things change in national politics. I have come to expect better from you Mr Totten. Your rather late interest in the empty suit named Edwards isn't winning you any political inisight awards either. If you truly listen to his speeches, he constantly paints a picture of two Americas, the greedy rich and all the rest of us who are the hapless and helpless victims of those rich bastards. Not a particularly truthful or uplifting message.

Posted by: solarity at January 28, 2004 10:37 AM

Solarity,

It is a shallow and silly comment and does not reflect well on the longterm perspicacity of the commentator.

Aren't you being just a little over the top here? I mean, I agree with your analysis about Edward’s. But your analysis of Michael makes his of Edwards look brilliant by comparison.

I have come to expect better from you Mr Totten. Your rather late interest in the empty suit named Edwards isn't winning you any political inisight awards either.

It isn’t necessarily about insight either. I remind you that Michael is a Tom Paine type. His walk between “annoying and entertaining” seems to be working well doesn’t it? Think about it.

Posted by: Samuel at January 28, 2004 10:54 AM

Samuel: His walk between “annoying and entertaining” seems to be working well doesn’t it?

I guess that's a compliment. :)

But hey, I never did say I was a Republican. No false advertising here.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at January 28, 2004 11:15 AM

Samuel I agree with you regarding 2008. Assuming a Bush reelection this year a Republican split is possible, the beneficiary of which is Senator Clinton by then probably in more seasoned centrist avatar. It depends upon who can reconcile elements on the center-right: Jeb Bush (dynasty! they will cry), Giuliani, Owens, Romney, Frist. Open question and too too early to speculate.

Posted by: Zhombre at January 28, 2004 11:32 AM

Yes Michael that is definitely a compliment from an obvious admirer. I have to admit in retrospect however the many times I myself have been “Tom Pained” by you! But that is your genius and what makes you so interesting and makes me part of your “accumulating audience” as they say. Don’t you dare change!

Posted by: Samuel at January 28, 2004 11:32 AM

BTW I took the Founding Father test and I am a diminutive bogus version of Philip Freneau.

Posted by: Zhombre at January 28, 2004 11:33 AM

....It isn’t necessarily about insight either. I remind you that Michael is a Tom Paine type. His walk between “annoying and entertaining” seems to be working well doesn’t it?.....

I concede that Michael's blog is rather unusual in that the hatred, vitriol and vulgarity that characterizes so many political blogs is relatively restrained here. For that reason, if nothing else, he deserves sincere plaudits.

I have to admit that his flirtation with Edwards is disappointing as his prior commentary had given me some hope that he might actually be moving away from his party's addiction to the politics of victimology. Regrettably, Edwards political schtick embodies victimology just as much as his prior career depended upon it. He skillfully rode that train to millionaire status and now pretends to be just one of us regular folks fighting the good fight against 'da man. It is remarkably shallow and cynical and it distresses me greatly that Michael has been sucked in by it. Or maybe it is just that all-important "electability" that Michael is buying into. Either way, his support for Edwards does no good to his rep as a thoughtful analyst of the political scene.

Posted by: solarity at January 28, 2004 12:04 PM

solarity,

Point gladly taken on Michael not participating in hatred, vitriol or vulgarity. I don't want to speak for Michael, he obviously does that well enough for himself but unlike some he has not lost all cause with democrats. And I have never seen the victim wing of the party ever be Michael’s magnet of attraction, from what I see Michael is a Hawkish-Social Liberal. Now a person of this stripe (of which I am) can obviously be drawn in either direction depending on certain overriding factors. For me, I have become more fiscally conservative (neo-liberal, you can thank Clinton for that), so that kind of pushes me to the Republicans. They have me on 2/3 of the issues and they also own, in my opinion the top issue of the day the War/Terrorism. So I am

1) Pro War
2) Social Liberal
3) Neo Liberal (fiscal conservative)

The Social Liberalism used to top my list, and I have fiscally flipped since 1996. That is my order of preference, it has certainly changed me. Of course anti-Semitic comments from my Democratic Congressman didn’t hurt the Republicans with a Jewish man like myself either, kind of made what would have been the most difficult decision easy. Maybe no one has made it that easy for him. I don't know Michael’s full list and order of priorities but I have never ever once heard him championing victimhood (except victims of terrorism). Nobody agrees with a candidate on everything.

Posted by: Samuel at January 28, 2004 12:44 PM

Thank you Samuel for the insightful comments. Being a lifelong conservative (well, since age 25 anyway) I find myself getting more conservative in my political beliefs as I age. Practically libertarian these days!

I can only hope that your political judgment continues to evolve and mature and that someday you will renounce the "social liberalism" that currently taints your otherwise godly soul!

It's been my experience that as one becomes a parent it becomes increasingly difficult to buy into liberal social policy. Raising children makes you a stakeholder in the future unlike any other activity. As I look around and see the effect of liberal social policy on today's children I shudder at the thought of what propogating that philosophy a few more generations down the line will do to our national fabric.

Posted by: solarity at January 28, 2004 01:15 PM

Samuel: Nobody agrees with a candidate on everything.

Ain't that the truth. By the way, when I saw I'm a social liberal, I mean that I'm socially left-liberatian, rather than "progressive." I want to end the drug war, keep abortion legal, bolster the wall between church and state, and let gays get married. I have no time for political correctness or its legistlative arm - affirmative action.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at January 28, 2004 01:26 PM

Solarity, there actually are a few NON-CONSERVATIVES AND NON-LIBERTARIANS who support a vigorous foreign policy, a vigorous defense, an unabashed attempt to promote democracy and liberty overseas, AND AT THE SAME TIME support an expansive, "progressive", "liberal" economic and fiscal agenda. We are sometimes called FDR or Scoop Jackson Democrats. Some of us are more "centrist" or "moderate" than others, supporting perhaps free trade, or vouchers in certain circumstances, or welfare reform. But we remember how the economy took off in the nineties even after Bush 41 and Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy, and we know that supply side tax policy is caca. We also support "liberal social policy." We are convinced that Oscar Wilde is now in heaven and Bill Bennett is fixin' to go straight to hell.

And we're NOT FRIGGIN' REPUBLICANS, unless the Democrats start acting SO STUPID that we have no choice. Then we go to the voting booths kicking and screaming and vote Republican. OK?

Posted by: Markus rose at January 28, 2004 01:31 PM

Solarity,

Actually as a Father of four children (three teenagers) I have become more (socially conservative) My oldest daughter is actually become quite the social conservative and a true neo-con, my wife has not and I have to referee! In fact come to think of it that is probably why in the founding Father test I came out George Washington, I have always been a John Adams when taking these tests in the past. Maybe I am at least mellowing. As far as liberal, I've shed socialism and fully emrace neo-liberalism because my neo-conservative (you know neo-liberalism on steroids) instincts dictate that. I doubt I will ever be the paleo-conservative type. Maybe its a Jewish thing I don't know. But Frum, Wolfowitz, Kristol, Perle, Woosley, Feith, Horowitz, Ledeen... I'll stop there, sure give a guy like me comfort and at least an avenue to the right.

Posted by: Samuel at January 28, 2004 01:35 PM

Michael,

Good clear up on the difference between progressive and liberal. I would have said progressive if I thought it fit. I actually was going to use the word libertarian but backed off because I thought it might offend you, in the sense of you being overly defined by me, which if you picked up while reading, I was obviously trying to avoid, hence the generic terms.

Posted by: Samuel at January 28, 2004 01:43 PM

.....And we're NOT FRIGGIN' REPUBLICANS, unless the Democrats start acting SO STUPID that we have no choice. Then we go to the voting booths kicking and screaming and vote Republican. OK?......

OK Markus. I hear you loud and clear. I had a soft spot for Scoop Jackson myself back in the day. Were he alive today he would be a Zell Miller demo and probably kicked out of the party. The party has left you behind Markus and your kind are most definitely a vanishing breed. Wish it were otherwise.

Posted by: solarity at January 28, 2004 01:44 PM

I was impressed by the "hero" link posted by Gerard Van der Leun, but disagree with the premise that the big problem is that people have "forgotten" 9/11. Speaking from personal experience, I believe that a large minority of people didn't forget as much as never accepted the reality of the attack or the implications that it had on their personal lives. I saw deep denial amongst many colleagues, citizens in my small New Hampshire town, even members of my own family.

Frankly they were to scared to even talk about it, wanted to chalk it up to a one-off freak attack and, for the lack of a better term, "move on". Needless to say this group of folks could be cynically characterized as a political constituentcy which is being tapped by Democrats.

Posted by: bob at January 28, 2004 01:52 PM

....Frankly they were to scared to even talk about it, wanted to chalk it up to a one-off freak attack and, for the lack of a better term, "move on". Needless to say this group of folks could be cynically characterized as a political constituentcy which is being tapped by Democrats. ......

Boy are you correct on this one. How about Wesley Clark's comment that if he were to be elected prez, such an attack simply would not happen!

I have been especially struck by how minority communities in particular tend to opt en masse for the "move on" attitude.

Posted by: solarity at January 28, 2004 02:00 PM

Holy Crap...did I hear someone talking about being a "Scoop Jackson Democrat" back there?!

I thought I was the only one...well, along with Totten. But there's 3 of us now!!! Woo-hoo!

Watch out world: The left-libertarian Scoop-Jacksonites are coming!

Posted by: Grant McEntire at January 28, 2004 03:13 PM

Grant,

Half my friends are Scoop Jackson Democrats. We have all argued politics for so long we see the world more or less the same way now...

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at January 28, 2004 03:35 PM

Marcus Rose,

"we remember how the economy took off in the nineties even after Bush 41 and Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy, and we know that supply side tax policy is caca."

Can you tell me what policy(s) of the Clinton admin was responsible for the 90's boom economy, further can you tell me why supply side economics doesnt work?

I am truly curious about this. Matter fact anyone who knows the answer please enlighten me.

Not trolling, I really want to know.

Posted by: mnm at January 28, 2004 03:44 PM

"Watch out world: The left-libertarian Scoop-Jacksonites are coming!"

From the perspective of this limited-gummint libertarian, sure looks like Scoop Jackson's already come, and he's sitting in the oval office.

;-)

"I want to end the drug war, keep abortion legal, bolster the wall between church and state, and let gays get married."

I'll grant that the guy in the oval office disagrees with y'all personally on these issues (although he actually does favor a wall between church and state, he just interprets how that plays out differently), but he shows greater willingness to let them play out through the legislative process than many of his detractors do.

Posted by: Ged of Earthsea at January 28, 2004 04:49 PM

"Can you tell me what policy(s) of the Clinton admin was responsible for the 90's boom economy, further can you tell me why supply side economics doesnt work?"

That would be Rubinomics - balancing the budget, thus getting the govmint out of the capital market and thereby lowering the cost of capital for people actually starting/expanding businesses and hiring people.

Supply side economics is just common sense at its core - if you tax something, you lessen the supply of it. Tax production, people produce less. The thing is, govmint doesn't pay for itself, you gotta tax somewhere. And govmint does some essential things. The more non-essentials, though, the bigger drag on overall production.

One of several reasons to make sure the umpire sticks to calling the game and doesn't itch to pick up a bat...

Posted by: Ged of Earthsea at January 28, 2004 05:44 PM

Ged of Earthsea,

Thanks for pointing out someting that should be obvious but isn't to some. Clinton was a supply sider (At least after 1994) and not an FDR Democrat.

Markus,

But we remember how the economy took off in the nineties even after Bush 41 and Clinton raised taxes on the wealthy, and we know that supply side tax policy is caca.

No Markus what you just said is caca. My god you don't understand supply side economics if you believe that Clinton wasn't a supply sider! I run a large distribution wholesaler with 732 employees and know business, finances and money! Clinton's token increase on the wealthy to 38% and then passing of NAFTA, welfare reform, lifting tariffs, trade with China, lowered capital gains taxes, that is the definition of Milton Freedman my man. Deal with it. It does no good misplacing credit, and is ridiculous redefining it. Sorry, one cannot be a neo-liberal without rejecting the idea of big-government at some level. Clinton was successful because he finished a lot of Reagan's work. On this one area Reagan really was right, Reagan did predict we would outgrow our deficits with lower taxes, and I predict we will again. If we raise taxes then the probability goes down not up. When I need to generate business I lower prices not raise them (the government does though), when our metro system here in Washington D.C. needed to generate money it raised ticket prices! I laughed my ass off than called up my congressman and gave him shit! Of course rider-ship went down along with profits, filling the trains became an issue, and then they talked about another increase! Man they just needed to hire me, how can a monopoly like that lose money? Only the government man that’s for sure? When I lower prices it does lower profits in the short term but as revenue comes in, the power to invest in my own business increases and then I worry about the deficits last! To do otherwise would be irresponsible quite frankly. Markus I am a neo-liberal now because of Clinton! Reagen came in and upper tax rates were over 50%, when he left they were 32%. When Clinton left they were 38% and you say he changed policy?. The rest of the fiscal policies became more Reagan not less! The economy straightened out despite the tax increases for many reasons I could write a book on and you would regret asking I'm sure, but you are in my wheelhouse of expertise on this one. Markus another shocker if we eliminated Clinton's tax increase, the budget would have balanced, with one difference, Bush wouldn't of had as legitimate argument to reduce taxes. The democrats unwittingly gave him the hammer. Bushes tax-cut were well-timed if not accidental. The two stupidest fiscal policies in modern day history were in fact implemented by Hoover and Carter, the only ideas today that I’ve heard that resemble them all come from democrats these days. Marcus, we have lived in a supply-side economy since 1983 arguing this can only be done on the margins my friend and FDR-LBJ is way outside those bounds, sorry. When Bush came in Government revenue was over 20% GDP which guite frankly is downright dangerous, Bush can build back from the cuts. Russia went to a 10% flat tax and doesn't know what to do with the money coming in. Bush's tax-cuts I guarentee all you "fighters for the small guys" will end with a greater discrepency between the wealthy and those not wealthy. The weathier will pay even a greater percentage in taxes.

Posted by: Samuel at January 28, 2004 08:23 PM

between “annoying and entertaining”

I guess you could say that Michael specializes in "annoytertainment"

:-)

Posted by: Daniel at January 28, 2004 08:44 PM

Enerannoyment, perhaps?

Just kidding...I can't recall ever being personally annoyed.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at January 29, 2004 12:09 AM

"That would be Rubinomics - balancing the budget, thus getting the govmint out of the capital market and thereby lowering the cost of capital for people actually starting/expanding businesses and hiring people."

So I guess it doesnt matter how much we spend, as long as we can raise taxes to balance the budget. Wow, I want that system. Gotta go, Im starting my wish list now.

Posted by: mnm at January 29, 2004 04:33 AM

"So I guess it doesnt matter how much we spend, as long as we can raise taxes to balance the budget. Wow, I want that system. Gotta go, Im starting my wish list now."

Mulligan?

Posted by: mnm at January 29, 2004 04:44 AM

"Thanks for pointing out someting that should be obvious but isn't to some. Clinton was a supply sider (At least after 1994) and not an FDR Democrat."

Actually, I think he was (and is! have you heard his speeches lately?) an FDR Democrat. The distinguishing feature about the New Deal was that it was New, not that it was Keynesian. Our greatest leaders have been driven by the pressing needs of their time, not ideology.

See Kausfiles the last couple days regarding the disturbing tendency of the current crop of Dems to resist any really new ideas. They're the ones abandoning FDR, not Clinton.

Supply side progressivism:

http://www.dynamist.com/weblog/archives/000824.html

http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_bartlett/bartlett200401280907.asp

"We must be the great arsenal of deomcracy."

- FDR, Dec. 29, 1940

Posted by: Ged of Earthsea at January 29, 2004 05:26 AM

"Mulligan?"

Hey, they're good enough for our fearless hero, they're good enough for me. How many you want?

;-)

Posted by: Ged of Earthsea at January 29, 2004 05:29 AM

"Mulligan?"

"Hey, they're good enough for our fearless hero, they're good enough for me. How many you want?"

Just one, Ill take a stroke before a ask for another. Thanks, heh

Posted by: mnm at January 29, 2004 05:44 AM

"We must be the great arsenal of deomcracy."

Hmmm, looks like I need a mulligan too; make that "democracy".

Posted by: Ged of Earthsea at January 29, 2004 06:21 AM

Samuel's comments are interesting because the enforce the notion that Clinton was more about perception than substance. The Dems would like to claim that the 1993 tax increase quelled nervousness in Wall Street and created a climate of investment.

Partially true, but it certainly wasn't the driver for creating surpluses. In 1994, OMB announced that it forsaw $200+ deficits for the next ten years. Clinton took the political hit for the tax hike in 1993 and basically washed his hands of the issue, willing to pass on the problem to his successor.

The surpluses were the result of a booming economy and the deadlock between a Republican congress and a Democratic president. Clinton got play the good cop and point fingers at a stingy Congress while benefiting from a 3% growth in government while growth in the private sector soared to record levels.

The issue of where tax cuts should go is something that reasonable people can disagree on. Certainly, tax cuts for the wealthy will most immediately impact investment, as we are seeing in the rise of the Dow. Tax cuts for the middle class will manifest itself in a rise in consumption which benefits businesses but has a different dynamic.

Posted by: bob at January 29, 2004 09:31 AM

Bob: Tax cuts for the middle class will manifest itself in a rise in consumption which benefits businesses but has a different dynamic.

I suppose this is ultimately what makes me still hope for a Democrat instead of a Republican. Tax cuts for the middle class do help the economy and they do help the rich, even if the rich don't get a tax cut themselves. And it's fairer, insofar as the middle class (and the poor) have more personal need for that tax cut.

I could be convinced (I suppose) that the rich needed a tax cut if investment was truly disintegrating. But investment always goes down during a recession as part of the business cycle, not because taxes are too high. I don't want to soak the rich, but I'm unconvinced that Bush's tax cut shouldn't have been aimed lower down.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at January 29, 2004 10:42 AM

Via Tim Blair's blog:

Mark Steyn discusses wartime strategy with Senator John Edwards:

I asked him what he would do about Iraq.

‘We need to get the UN in there,’ he said.

‘But they were in there. They pulled out because it was too dangerous.’

‘We need to get Nato in there,’ he said.

‘But 21 out of the 34 countries with troops on the ground are, in fact, Nato members.’

‘Hey, that’s what I love about these town hall meetings,’ he said, shaking my hand. ‘You get to hear from the people.’

Posted by: Sandy P. at January 29, 2004 07:47 PM

The Mark Steyn quote is perhaps the least serious of all thing I have ever read. In the crush as he was leaving Gorham Town Hall Steyn accosts him and tries to have a drawn out discussion on what to do in Iraq. He gets the blow off, of course, so what's the conclusion?

a. Mark Steyn is a hack for not trying to have the discussion in a professional manner
b. Edwards is a hack for not getting into the discussion as he was leaving a talk.

George Bush said he had done the most for human rights of all presidents, a startingly dishonest and short-sighted statement. Edwards says in an off-hand way that the UN and NATO need to get into Iraq, and HackenSteyn determines that this means he dosen't know the UN was forced out and many NATO nations are already in, instead of thinking that we need increased national involvement.

Posted by: Hipocrite at January 30, 2004 10:08 AM

Hipocrite,

George Bush said he had done the most for human rights of all presidents, a startingly dishonest and short-sighted statement.

When did George Bush say that? And George Bush is by far the least "startingly dishonest" I have ever seen. One could argue misguided, short-sighted, thick-headed if one so desires, but "startingly dishonest"? As Clinton and Gore voter myself, I am beginning to wonder if all of our defending of Clinton has caused us to not be able to properly define what a lie is.

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