January 27, 2004

A Threat

Iraq war opponents of the Bush lied! variety like to cite weapons detective David Kay to bolster their case. His post-invasion report doesnít ratify what the Bush Administration said before the war.

Here he is in an interview with Tom Brokaw:

TB: Intelligence report says ... "Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with range in excess of U.N. restrictions. If left unchecked it probably will have a nuclear weapon within this decade."

DK: Well, I think itís got elements that we have certainly seen are true. The area that itís probably more seriously wrong in is in the nuclear area.

TB: But as you know, the vice president and, to a lesser degree, the president of the United States, raised the nuclear threat as a reason that the United States had to go to war against Iraq.

DK: I think the weight of the evidence ó was not great.

But the anti-warriors might not want to make him their poster child just yet.
TB: David, as you know, a lot of the presidentís political critics are going to say, ďThis is clear evidence that he lied to the American people.Ē

DK: Well, Tom, if we do that, I think weíre really hurting ourselves. Clearly, the intelligence that we went to war on was inaccurate, wrong. We need to understand why that was. I think if anyone was abused by the intelligence it was the president of the United States rather than the other way around.

TB: The president described Iraq as a gathering threat ó a gathering danger. Was that an accurate description?

DK: I think thatís a very accurate description.

TB: But an imminent threat to the United States?

DK: Tom, an imminent threat is a political judgment. Itís not a technical judgment. I think Baghdad was actually becoming more dangerous in the last two years than even we realized. Saddam was not controlling the society any longer. In the marketplace of terrorism and of WMD, Iraq well could have been that supplier if the war had not intervened.

Thereís more.
TB: But as you know, the administration and its supporters, not just suggest, but insist that there was a real connection between Saddam Hussein and terrorist organizations that would be a threat to the United States.

DK: Look, I found no real connection between WMD and terrorists. What we did find, and as others are investigating it, we found a lot of terrorist groups and individuals that passed through Iraq.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at January 27, 2004 12:15 AM
Comments

But the anti-warriors might not want to make him their poster child just yet.

Oh yes they do! They will use anything to be twisted! They aren't truth seekers but truth destroyers!

I have one hope though. That Karl Rove is building a nice little journal of these falsities so those candidates guilty of distorting these facts and pointing fingers can answer for such things. Let them die by the same sword they draw themselves, as the say.

Posted by: Samuel at January 27, 2004 12:35 AM

We have had an intelligence failure on the order of Pearl Harbor, the beginning of the Korean War, the Chinese intervention in Korea and the like. It seems to be a common American failure (in this case a worldwide failure). This question has nothing to do with partisanship and everything to do with national security. The intelligence structure is obviously inadequate.

We need to hire/bribe bad guys to get us information. We are too reliant on satellites and need to reverse the mistakes begun by Frank Church 30 years ago and continued by Peter Torricelli in the 90's which try to enable us to do dirty jobs utlizing angelic peramaters.

BTW, why is George Tenet still employed?

Posted by: spc67 at January 27, 2004 12:45 AM

John Kerry sponsored a bill to cut $1.5 billion from the CIA, then after 9/11 criticized them for not providing better intelligence.

There's a phrase Anthony Powell uses more than once in his 12-volume novel, "A Dance to the Music of Time," in order to explain the behavior of one spoiled British aristocrat or another, when such a person seems by his actions to blithely contradict his expressed ideology.

"What he wanted, above all else, was to have his own way."

This seems to sum up Kerry pretty well. That's all he wants. The "issues" themselves mean little or nothing other than as means to an end.

Posted by: miklos rosza at January 27, 2004 04:08 AM

The two most colossal intelligence failures:

September 11, 2001 and the WMD reports on Iraq. These are just opposite ends of the pendulum swing.

Heads need to roll (figuratively, of course).

Posted by: steve at January 27, 2004 04:13 AM

The liberal sneering at the American failure to find WMD stockpiles in Iraq is like making fun of a man who, having been tested for diabetes, receives a negative result but is told that what he really has is cancer.

Read the full post at Belmont Club

(but not if you want to be cheered up)

Posted by: Daniel at January 27, 2004 04:50 AM

Yeah, that Belmont club guy is very sobering.

As for David Kay, I like the part about where he says various bits of Hussein's WMD programs are now in Syria.

Look for that to be totally ignored.

Posted by: eric at January 27, 2004 06:03 AM

Yes, there are definitely things we must do to improve our intelligence. Many of the problems are self imposed. I mean, if you continually tie the CIA's hands, you should expect a deterioration in its effectiveness. I don't see how firing directors would address the root cause of the problem.

Posted by: JJ Walker at January 27, 2004 07:28 AM

spc67 puts a point on the beginning of the current slide in intelligence capbapility (although a decent argument can be made that we have never had a decent capability - equivalent to the British or Russians) but I don't see an end to it. The CIA is a bureaucracy and advancement within that bureaucracy is measured by adherence to standards. Church and Petrocelli did their bit in lowering the efficiency of the agency but are not totally responsible for its current state. The agency suffers from from the deadwood that accretes in any governmental agency.

Tenet has kept his job precisely because he is a holdover. The 911 failure attaches to him and he is being allowed to try to make the changes necessary to block another attempt. To date he has been successful but the institutional changes required to raise the overall efficiency of the agency will take more like ten years than the three that he has had to date. Demotion and reassignment are the main tools available to him and time is required for them to be effective. Time is also required to build the humint resources necessary to infiltrate the organizations that we seek to destroy. Two more years will be necessary to achieve adequate penetration and then we will still be facing the situation outlined by Belmont Club.

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Posted by: Rick Ballard at January 27, 2004 08:13 AM

...and I see that Mr. Brokaw is still repeating the "imminent threat" canard...

Posted by: Brian Swisher at January 27, 2004 08:58 AM

Say, where's the whole "Bush Lied" club this morning?

Sitting here carefully reading your post--another of your 'inconvenient' fact based moderation lessons--I hope.

Posted by: Stephen at January 27, 2004 09:53 AM

Look to see how Bush goes from "liar" to "deserter".

Posted by: David at January 27, 2004 10:28 AM

No doubt the CIA is not up to snuff, but intelligence agencies from many other nations reached similar conclusions. From what I've been reading Saddam may of been mislead by his own underlings as to the extent of the develpoment of his WMD programs. If that's the case it seems unlikely that we could ever have known what Saddam himself didn't know without having moles scattered throughout his ranks, something we were clearly not able to do.

Posted by: Paul Branin at January 27, 2004 02:17 PM

In the Sunday NPR interview with Liane Hansen, Kay says

"Although I must say, I actually think that Iraq - what we learned during the inspections - made Iraq a more dangerous place potentially than in fact we thought it was even before the war."

Just about everybody ignores that one.

Posted by: Mike at January 27, 2004 04:20 PM

The two most colossal intelligence failures:

Are you kidding? Remember the Berlin Wall coming down? That wasn't just an event that we failed to predict, or a glaring misevaluation of an enemy's arsenal. It was a gradual and historic political development, and we failed to read the signs.

Who got fired for that?

Tommy Franks (IIRC) said in an interview a while back that if you put all of the raw intel available before 9/11 that suggested such an attack was imminent in one pile, then put all of the intel suggesting that Saddam was still possessing and pursuing WMD in another, your second pile would be much more impressive than the first.

I'm glad I'm not an intel analyst right now. You're pretty much expected to know the unknowable. What people don't realize is that there will always be variables and uncertainties, and intelligence will always involve human interpretation. If you have incomplete, unprovable information, what is your default position? Assume the best? We did that before 9/11. Assume the worst? We did that in our assessment of Saddam's arsenal.

Posted by: Bill Herbert at January 27, 2004 08:08 PM

From what I hear, this thing is far from settled. Nevertheless, operating on the assumption that there was a mass intelligence failure, does any honest person reasonably expect that an investigation into such a failure can be investigated in the midst of a presidential election? Will the Democrats agree to not use this to hurt the president and his re-election chances? Does anyone expect the Republicans to allow information harmful to the president to become public? The best thing is to set up a legitimate bi-partisan investigation after the election in an honest effort to figure out what went wrong, if anything. This must remain secret and must not be used as a political weapon. Too much is at stake.

Posted by: Doug at January 27, 2004 08:09 PM

The line about the President being betrayed by the intelligence service is a bit rich given the extent to which the administration inserted itself into the normal intelligence processes. But it's typical of this administration, which never admits fault for anything, and if it can't spin away a failure completely, it blames someone else for it.

Bush is becoming the "Dolly did it" President.

As for the "threat" assessment - it's just classic spin - he backs away from the clear, disprovable assertion, and then insinuates it back using language that is so vague as to be unfalsifiable.

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