Wise choice. I have been putting some serious thought into it as well.

I was just thinking the same thing. My father was having a hard time understanding my thoughts on the Democratic party, and I realize that's because he's not the kind of Democrat that would vote for Dean, while the only kinds of Democrats I seem to run into every day are that kind.

Iowa is a good reminder that my whole "if the election was tomorrow, I'd vote for Bush" thing I'd been running with was based on the assumption of Dean winning the nomination. I guess these little unexpected occurences are why I haven't started volunteering for a campaign...

Nathan: the only kinds of Democrats I seem to run into every day are that kind.

Me too. And they make a lot more noise. But, Nathan, there are a lot of people like you and me who don't make noise.

That's bad news for Bush. The GOP really really really wants to run against Dean.

Yes, split the ticket, gridlock and stagnation are always an effective strategy.

Sheesh, at least have the conviction of your convictions.

Anon: Sheesh, at least have the conviction of your convictions.

I do. Maybe I like certain aspects of both parties. And maybe I'll vote straight-Democrat anyway.

I know that sort of thing might make your head explode, but that's not my problem.

Kerry and Edwards both voted for the war in Iraq but against the bill to fund the effort. That's pretty damning if foreign policy is your main issue.

I am in a similar position via voting decision but what stops me cold from voting for Edwards is his postion on Nafta. Still even with that, my faith into democratic party is suddenly a good way towards restoration.

Michael: Nathan, there are a lot of people like you and me who don't make noise.

Yes, you're right, and a lot of my decision to leave the party had to do with my peculiar view of membership. Most Dems in Philadelphia and its vicinity are either the types that so often make the pilgrimage out to Eugene, Oregon, or the type that vote however the machine tells them to. I didn't want to be a part of that, and that's probably why I'm not a Republican (although the coalition aspects of that party are more apparent to me). Nationally it's a different story, and that gives me hope.

What are Edwards' views on NAFTA anyway?...I'm with you Michael: totally disgusted by the Dems; being in the unfamiliar position of defending Bush, but not, as you said, his cheerleader. I had also completely written the dems off, but now listening to Edwards, I too will have to rethink my vote--although I have not been impressed with his performance during the debates.

Well, it's a mixture of shock and grief here at the neighborhood Bush victory party we were trying to hold at my house. We didn't even show. "There's always '08" are just empty words right now. All I know is I'm not watching the State of the Union tomorrow if whatshisface is going to say it instead of Bush.

Edwards wanted to roll back the parts of the tax cuts aimed at the wealthiest to fund Iraq. Not the position I would have taken, but hardly something out of the ANSWER playbook. Plus, he was for the war in the first place.

I've been rooting for Edwards since November, and although my rationale has changed slightly, my conclusion hasn't. I'm not all that interested in Kaus's particulars on which type of loss would be less damaging to the Dems in '08 (read: Hillary vs. Jeb). I want a team that can beat Bush in '04, redirect our domestic energies, and show some spine while not alienating most of the civilized world. Edwards-Kerry seems like a damn good ticket on all these accounts.

If Edwards is the nominee, I will vote for him.

Edwards as second is huge win for him. He's the Dem who really does have a hope of winning a Southern state -- no guarantee, though.

What about the policies??? Edwards can prolly get away with voting against funding -- tired of supporting the ommissions and half-truths of the Bush admin.

Punish, er, tax the rich. Right. The big hope is that Edwards as Dem candidate can offer enough constructive criticism so that Bush & Reps do better policy. Unfortunately, the free trade - NAFTA issue, allowing poor folk in poor countries to get low paying jobs (instead of becoming beggars & prostitutes, for instance), is Dem problem. We need trade that is more free, especially for the poor folk of the world.

I won't vote for any Dem until they're more serious about cutting bad gov't, but I think, and hope, that Edwards is the 2004 lamb; the USA gets into trouble with a weak second party.

A Dem pres - Rep Congress is the better split, heart in the visionary leadership, prudence in the purse-strings.

C'mon Democrats. You gotta figure out which guy you most prefer to get crushed by Bush in November. Make up your minds now!

Edwards, eh? I for one do not believe the American people need a personal injury ambulance chaser for the Oval Office.

I for one do not believe the American people need a personal injury ambulance chaser for the Oval Office.

No, we don't need that. We didn't need a Texas oil guy either. But so it goes.

Actually, though, it's not a bad thing to have a lawyer in office. A smart political scientist (I forget who) made an observation I thought was pretty interesting. S/he said the Soviet Union was run by engineers and the United States is run by lawyers. The Soviet Union was a vast machine. The US is a nation of laws. Something to think about.

Edwards may be a decent guy, but if he were President, the administration and the cabinet would be chock full of...Democrats. Al Sharpton would be part of the ruling class. Jimmy Carter would be coming to dinner. I don't care who the Dem candidate is. I defected from the party this past year and the farther away I get, the clearer I get about the whole context they operate out of. I don't like it at all. Dubya has many flaws, but he "gets" 9.11 and that is more important to me now than anything else. I want the Muslim world to know, in November 2004, that we like what he's done.

Another issue is 2008 -- Edwards as serious contender in 2004 might put him in good position to be front runner for 3 years, and seriously fight off Hillary in 2008.

What strikes me as really funny is the "democrats come to their senses meme".
The only thing that the Democrats have done is finally had a chance to express themselves. Up till now, all the noise has been from activists, the media, and the blogosphere. All these little twits who have been flirting with George Bush operate entirely in this artificial, incestuous world.
I hope y'all really learn the lesson from this. If you want to be a wise commentator about politics in a democracy, listen to what the people are saying, not what the writers are writing.

"S/he said the Soviet Union was run by engineers and the United States is run by lawyers. The Soviet Union was a vast machine. The US is a nation of laws."

Interesting. Related point: Edwards may be the only one with the credibility among trial lawyers to get meaningful tort reform done.

If he picks that particular Sister Souljah, the Dem troops'll be marching to a majority...

Before everybody gets all moist for Edwards, give a bit of time. Neither the press nor the public has bothered with him or his policies because until late last week his numbers were comparable to Mosley-Braun's. At this point we don't know why he finished as he did, although one can suspect it to have as much to do with the unattractiveness of the other candidates as does with the attractiveness of Edwards himself.

In any event, I would suggest that the real news here is the further unravelling of Howard Dean. His performance after the results were announced last night was really bizarre (even by his standards). Dean ripping off his coat, turning purple with rage and bellowing out all the primaries he's going to 'fight'in was, as Don Imus put it, a "mental patient moment". The clips of it are all over the morning news shows, and it is not playing well.

Edwards may be the next shine-y toy for the 'Anyone But Bush' crowd, but he now has to actually start performing within the context of being taken seriously. That means dealing with the press, the punditry and the blogosphere. Like I said, let's give it a bit of time...one month ago just about everyone was handing the crown to Howard, and we are seeing how well that has worked out for people like Al Gore, aren't we?

If either Kerry of Edwards is the Democratic nominee the Greens will run a presidential candidate. The Greens will probably not field a presidential candidate if Dean is the candidate. In a close contest that will be very significant.

Remember, leftists consider moderates and centrists to be right wingers.

Now that's an interesting thought: Another Green party candidate--Will it be Ralph Nader again? And will he get ignored by the national media again?

That would be entertaining, if nothing else.

Well, for all the tea-leaf reading here, I suspect we'll all have to wait until Super Tuesday to see which way the wind is really blowing.

Another point to consider: Dean has a HUGE war chest. Even if the party wants him out, he is not likely to go away either quickly or quietly. I wouldn't count him out yet. Regardless of his finish in Iowa, the party has a big problem with him.

I'm pretty relaxed about the whole thing. I don't think it's a bad idea to have a lawyer in the White House, provided he doesn't pander to the legal special interest groups (couldn't resist that). Even as a VRWC Deathbeast, I don't think it's going to be the end of the world if Kerry or Edwards gets elected. I may not like it for a few years, but mostly Presidents are made in the White House and not on the campaign trail. Any one of these guys might be a decent president. It goes without saying that I disagree with much of what they're saying while in campaign mode, but lying on campaign is something that's a way of life in presidential elections. And I'm more than a little unhappy with the "we're already overspending, so what's a few more billion?" approach to fiscal policy in the current administration.

Anyone who'll take the oath of office, mean it, and do a credible effort to keep it has got my respect.

As someone who voted for Nader last time round (even did some volunteering for him) I can only say, let him run. He'll pull in less than half the votes he got last time, and he'll keep the loonies who keep trying to hijack the Democratic Party otherwise occupied.

Some people never learn from their mistakes. I'm not one of them. I'm not sorry Al Gore lost, but if there's a viable alternative to Bush/Cheney I'll go with it.

And when the winner finally emerges from the ring of fire, oceans of money will flow in his direction. Bush is gonna need his half-billion dollars. My checkbook is primed and ready to go.

Last thought: a surprise winner of last night's events--Terry McCauliffe. The short primary season that looked sooo bad two days ago, now looks set to work just as planned. Hats off to you, my fellow Central New Yorker.

If Terry McCauliffe is the surprise winner, then the Democratic party is the surprise loser.

If Iowa's recent record is any indication, John Kerry just lost the Democratic nomination. In 1992, they picked Tom Harkin. In 1988, they picked Bob Dole and Dick Gephart (GHW Bush and Dukakis nominated). In 1980, it was GHW Bush (Reagan nominated). In 1976, "uncommitted" beat Carter (who was eventually nominated). If anything, an Iowa victory is the Kiss of Death.

New Hampshire is no better. In 1992 it was Paul Tsongas (Clinton nominated). In 2000 it was John McCain (GW Bush nominated). Pat Buchanan won in 1996 (Bob Dole nom'd), and Gary Hart won in 1984 (Walter Mondale nom'd). The primaries and caucuses may have meant something once, maybe, but certainly not for a decade or two.

And let's analyze Iowa's results more closely. Lieberman and Clark were not there. They may have taken votes from Kerry and Edwards had they been.

They also escaped media scrutiny. Dean has been baked alive in the media lately. With their new spotlights, Kerry and Edwards are about to receive a grilling themselves. Clark and Lieberman may be in better position because of it.

Also, Edwards has a weak national campaign, and will probably not do well in NH. Kerry and Dean are local boys, and Lieberman isn't too far away, so the local opinion can swing strongly one way or the other.

But finally, it's not who starts strong, it's who ends strong. We won't know who's ending strong for a few primaries yet.

I'm unclear what anyone should percieve to be apparent or importnat foreign policy differences between Edwards or Kerry. Or Edwards and even Clark. Or, to a certain extent, anyone and Dean.

Afterall, Bush told us he had no interest in nation building or entangling ourselves in foreign engagements, even though that's what's he's done. Even though he appointed men to Defense Department who had long advocated regime change in Iraq...

I don't believe positions on the war, and in the case of Edwards and Kerry, positions on the nuances of the war, will portend that much about future foreign policy decisions. I'm reluctant to even assume voting for a Democrat will mean much departure from pre-emption as a principle or an honest effort to rebuild and realign the U.N. and the Atlantic alliance.

I am hopeful that a Democratic win will bring back a bit or realistic planning and honest accounting. But I think our hand has been played in Iraq and whether we like it or not, we'll be there for awhile. We need an a solid, steady broker to bring that country to maturity.

Now: here's a question for you Micahel. Which is more important: insane budget deficits, widening gaps between rich and poor, half-hearted homeland security, quioxtic trips to the moon and Mars, absolutely ignoring the potential threat of global warming, a 20th century (some would say 19th century) energy policy, and the abrogation of international alliance that may become more and more important as other, non-mid east powers, such as China, develop -- or -- Bush foreign policy on the Middle East?

Maybe it's the scrutiny factor. Seemed like Dean was all the rage until people started to examine him closely. Same with Wesley Clark. He was the hottest thing since sliced bread when he announced his candidacy... look at him now, everyone thinks he's a space cadet. I don't know much about Edwards other than he' s a millionaire lawyer trying to run as a common man. I am sure we'll know more now the spotlight will be on him.

harry --

Comparing the problems in the Middle East with the deficit is like comparing a heart attack to cancer: both are bad for you and require treatment, but if the heart attack will kill you today if it's not treated, whereas the cancer will take a while. If the patient has both, the best strategy is to deal with the heart attack now and worry about the cancer later.

Dean and Gephardt tore each other up with negative campaigning in Iowa. Let's see how New Hampshire goes before declaring the Party to be full of feckless warmongers.

Harry: Which is more important: insane budget deficits, widening gaps between rich and poor, half-hearted homeland security, quioxtic trips to the moon and Mars, absolutely ignoring the potential threat of global warming, a 20th century (some would say 19th century) energy policy, and the abrogation of international alliance that may become more and more important as other, non-mid east powers, such as China, develop -- or -- Bush foreign policy on the Middle East?

Bush's deficits are an obvious disaster. Everyone seems to agree with that, both Democrat and Republican. As far as the gap between rich and poor goes, of course I'd like to see the poor brought up. I'm unconvinced homeland security will improve with any president, but you never know. I want to go to Mars, and have since I was a child. The Senate voted unanimously against the Kyoto Protocol, so you can't lay that on Bush. I do want a more modern energy policy. And I don't blame Bush on the fracturing of our alliances; I blame the end of the Cold War - See Robert Kagan's Power and Weakness.

So it's not quite the no-brainer for me that it is for you.

Edwards is looking better, and he has one advantage over Kerry -- he's only spent 5 years (so far) in the Senate, so he's got less to explain away (various votes). On the other hand, he probably couldn't have gotten re-elected in North Carolina. Why? He's going to get a lot of scrutiny, and he has little experience in running an executive campaign. Only two sitting Senators have been elected in the past century (Harding and Kennedy). Maybe there's a reason. (Also, both won against non-incumbents.) While I am pleased to see the beginnings of some reasonable choices, I think I'll wait a bit before jumping on an Edwards bandwagon. (I'm betting Kerry is not really electable.)

I want to go to Mars, and have since I was a child.

And you really think Bush is the President with the drive, good fiscal sense, and belief in scientific principles and achievement to make this happen?

Kimmitt: And you really think Bush is the President with the drive, good fiscal sense, and belief in scientific principles and achievement to make this happen?

I don't know. But it the Democrats are going to be reactionaries and oppose it outright, I'm sure not going to trust them to get us to Mars.

Opposing Bush on everything is not a smart strategy. Because sometimes Bush is right.

Let's get our fiscal house in something vaguely resembling order, and let's not throw out basic science, such as the Hubble refurbishment, in the process.

Plus, let's not waste time on the moon, which is, if anything, even less habitable.

To put it another way -- I'm willing to go to Mars. I'm willing to pony up the $1,000 which is my part of the cost. I'm not willing to pretend that the cost doesn't exist.

Michael -- As for Mars, I'd move the italics: I want to go to Mars.

As for the fracturing of alliances: I blame Bush because he and his administration have been unable to refocus American hegemony after the Cold War. And the Bush administration has strengthened the perceptions of American interests that Kagan points out. It's not enough to simply say, ahh, it's the Cold War's fault. It's up to the administration to make policy, not cop out to nonsense notions of historically derived inevitability.

I agree with you on one point, Michael: 9-11 signaled the need for new priorities. However, I think those priorities should have centered on the need to rally the support we witnessed early on into a new international response to terrorism and the Middle East, embodied in the United Nations and international alliances. The folly of unilateralism is evident now in our struggles to provide legitimacy to a transitional government in Iraq.

And we veer off subject again... Ahh, well.

Lileks said it well, "This was not a rejection of the Dean message. This was a rejection of the messenger." If Dean continues to flop, many of his "enlightened" followers may just get louder and angrier rather than fall behind the wishes of the more mainstream Dems. Adam Sullivan notes that John Kerry has pretty much just co-opted Howard Dean's message recently. One third of the anti-war vote among Iowa Dems swung to Kerry last night, so perhaps what we have is some kind of weird leftist mutation.

Loved Dean's classy and understated speech last night. The primal scream at the end was an especially nice touch.

If you want fiscal responsibility then we need conflict between the Legislative and Executive branches of government. It is easier to change the party of the Executive office holder than that of the majority in the Legislature, so:

Go Edwards!

(I would've said Kerry 'cuz I'm from MA but just thinking about four years of that monotone puts me to sleeeeeeeeppppppp.......

Kimmitt-

Crack on Bush if you must, but Howard Dean's idea of a space policy seems to be howling at the moon.

Or maybe that's his foreign policy. Or his energy policy. Or...

All of these so-and-so Democrat's such-and-such policy is awesome/decent/ineffectual/nonexistent etc. are silly!

Howard Dean no more has a space/foreign/energy/domestic policy right now than Bush had in 2000 or Clinton in 1992 ... none. "Policy" on the campaign trail in a crowded field is largely proposals designed to flavor the character of the bearer. Bush's candidacy contrasted with his presidency should make this crystal clear.

I think it's safe to say that a Kerry/Clark/Edwards/Dean nomination would tone down the aggressive unilateralism of the Bush administration -- but, the particulars of how that would be accomplished are not apparent. To assume that any Democratic President would withdraw from Iraq, and put France in charge of U.S. foreign policy is lunacy (okay save Kucinich, but speaking of lunacy). Bush could hardly pronounce the name of a foreign country ouside of Western Europe four years ago. Today he's built a very active foreign policy.

aggressive unilateralism - gimme a break.

"While we should always seek to take significant international actions on a multilateral rather than a unilateral basis whenever that is possible, if in the final analysis we face what we truly believe to be a grave threat to the well-being of our Nation or the entire world and it cannot be removed peacefully, we must have the courage to do what we believe is right and wise. Saddam Hussein should pay a grave price, in a currency that he understands and values, for his unacceptable behavior. This should not be a strike consisting only of a handful of cruise missiles hitting isolated targets primarily of presumed symbolic value." (John Kerry, 11/9/97)

this perfectly describes the inevitable outcome of Bush's moon policy.

Boy, Walter Lippman's famous assertion about leaders, "That temperament is more important than intellect," never rang more true than last night.

Edwards is definitely an improvement over Dean, but he's terrible on trade. He's a protectionist a la Gephardt - which is why union people flocked to him when it was clear Gephardt wasn't viable. Still, he's much better on the war. I just wish there was a pro-war, free-trade, socially liberal, small-government candidate out there.

Brett: Me too. Hey, let's nominate Michael Totten!

No. No. No. The time is not ripe.

Michael J. Totten needs a few more years of creeping rightward.

Save Totten to run against Hillary in '08 as a liberal Republican in the Ahnold mold.

Put Roger L. Simon on the ticket and you have California and the South Park Republicans locked up.

Hell, I might even be able to vote for that ticket!

Dennis: Michael J. Totten needs a few more years of creeping rightward.

Well, if John Edwards win the nomination, in all liklihood I'll creep back leftward.

But I'll tell you the same thing I tell some of my dismayed liberal friends who haven't followed me to the middle. I'm still me.

"Actually, though, it's not a bad thing to have a lawyer in office. A smart political scientist (I forget who) made an observation I thought was pretty interesting. S/he said the Soviet Union was run by engineers and the United States is run by lawyers. The Soviet Union was a vast machine. The US is a nation of laws. Something to think about."

Since the beginning of World War II, four out of our twelve Presidents were lawyers -- FDR, Nixon, Ford, and Clinton. All were controversial in their time and, with the exception of FDR, I wouldn't call any of them great leaders of the country as President.

Dating back to 1893 (20 Presidents), we've had eight lawyers in the Presidency (the above four, plus Coolidge, Taft, McKinley, and Cleveland). Anybody want to call any of these four "great leaders"?

We may have lots of lawyers in our legislatures and courts, but historically we don't seem to prefer them as Presidents. Eight or more years of public service (elected, appointed, or military, at any level) seem to be a much more accurate predictor of success in a Presidential campaign, which would seem to be bad news for Sen. Edwards.

Just some food for thought...

Lincoln was a lawyer with less than eight years of public service.

"Well, if John Edwards win the nomination, in all likelihood I'll creep back leftward."

If Totten is left, I don't wanna be right.

If he has any luck dragging the rest of the left along with him, then things could get interesting...

I think the Totten, Reynolds, OxBlog axis is more ahead than left or right. Maybe that's just me.

"Liberty of thought is the life of the soul."

- Voltaire

Edwards voted against the 87 billion for rebuilding Iraq. The economy would have to really be in the tank for me to even consider voting for him.

I'd think long and hard about Edwards. Of course you'll have plenty of times to do so. Recall that he hypocritically voted against the 87 billion aid package for Iraq lying that he didn't want to give Bush a "blank check." A purely calculated vote on a vital matter of national security and he voted for the war the first time. He has also railed demagogagely against the Patriot Act and speaks of John Ashcroft as if he is the second coming of Satan. I've heard plenty of left wing pandering by Edwards. Most importantly, though, the man has virtually no experience in politics. He has been a senator for less than six years. He has NO other political experience at all. Bush at least was working on his second term as governor of a major state. Plus he ran his father's re-election campaign. Clinton spent his entire adult life emersed in politics. As did Bush I. Reagan spent twenty years deeply emmersed in politics before becomming president. JFK was on his second term in the senate but had been in Congress for 14 years. Many said he was too unseasoned. I am not prepared to turn over national security and the war on terror to someone with as little seasoning as Edwards no matter how much I like his positions. Certainly not when I am dissatisfied with the President's performance on this issue.

The Reps will try to use the vote against the money as club, but the Dems will claim it was a vote against Bush. Among Dems, this will play, among Reps, it won't. The pro-Bush folk will vote for Bush. The anti-war folk will vote for the Dem, most likely.

What about those pro-war, anti-Bush folks? I think Michael is one of them; and suspect Roger L Simon will turn out to be one, too ... despite his prior Bush endorsement.

The Kerry & Edwards' votes against Bush's money won't be at all decisive; the policy of what to do now will be the test, e.g. Iran, No. Korea; Saudi Arabia, Pakistan. [no, not the US support for the dictator in Uzbekistan]

"Lincoln was a lawyer with less than eight years of public service."

Not according to the biography at whitehouse.gov.

" Lincoln made extraordinary efforts to attain knowledge while working on a farm, splitting rails for fences, and keeping store at New Salem, Illinois. He was a captain in the Black Hawk War, spent eight years in the Illinois legislature, and rode the circuit of courts for many years. His law partner said of him, 'His ambition was a little engine that knew no rest.'"

Unless, of course, you don't think that the Illinois legislature counts as public service. I'll defer to residents of Illinois to give the definitive judgement on that.

1. Mainstream America will NOT accept that Kerry and Dean voted against the money to hurt Bush, not the war effort. They will see this as scuzzy as I do. It will be a massive club that Bush will use skillfully. When will you Democrats learn that only Clinton could get away with this kind of action. In a new post Sept. 11 world, these kind of political shenanagins will not be tolerated. You will learn.

2. On Lincoln- The man spent 20 plus years deeply immersed in Illinois and national politics. He served in Congress during the Polk admninistration. He was one of the important founders of the Republican party in 1854. This is the kind of experience that matters. I am unconvinced that a John Edwards could be sufficiently versed in the things that matter in a mere six years. He has NO executive experience and little experience with high politics.

Nothing's far when one wants to get there.

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