December 23, 2003

Talk is Cheap

The editors at the Guardian think Libya’s decision to relinquish its weapons of mass destruction is a victory of talk over force.

Patient diplomacy, dialogue, negotiation, clearly enunciated principles and red lines, respect, mutual trust, and attractive incentives - these are the civil tools that helped bring, at the weekend, perhaps the most significant, tangible breakthrough in arms control since the strategic weapons pacts of the later cold war era. Libya has gone from 1986 target of Ronald Reagan's bombs, from "rogue" sponsor of non-state, anti-western terrorism and, as it now admits, from active pursuer of nuclear and chemical arms to, if all sides honour the bargain, a prospectively valuable friend and partner.
I wouldn’t say Libya will be a valuable friend and partner any time soon. Not with Gaddafi in charge. The Guardian once again is too quick to make friends with dictators.

Even more dubious is the assertion that patient diplomacy explains Libya’s capitulation. Because capitulation is exactly what it was.

Andrew Apostolou says the French and Germans, if they happened to be involved, would only have mucked it all up.

The fact that France, Germany, and Russia were not directly involved in the contacts with Libya was also a key element in their success. We can only imagine the diplomatic fiasco that would have resulted from the French, German, or Russian foreign ministers landing in Tripoli to invite themselves into the negotiations as intermediaries. These supposed friends of the U.S. would have sent muddled signals to Khaddafi. Instead of facing a firm, but fair, Anglo-American position, the Libyan dictator would have ended up deluding himself — something that he does not find difficult — into believing that was an alternative to full compliance with his international obligations. Perhaps now is the time for that other victim of an overly active imagination, Dominique de Villepin, the French foreign minister, to confine himself to literature.
If anyone doubts this is a victory for the hawks, they need only listen to Gaddafi himself:
I will do whatever the Americans want, because I saw what happened in Iraq, and I was afraid.
And that, I think, settles that.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at December 23, 2003 12:59 AM
Comments

"And that, I think, settles that."

Hey, I agree with you, but come on. Nothing's ever settled in the blogosphere. :)

Posted by: Moe Lane at December 23, 2003 03:24 AM

The general position of the Guardian is that the the USA is an evil empire, and we have Darth Bush as our leader. So we shouldn't be so surprised.

Posted by: Glenn at December 23, 2003 05:24 AM

Talk is cheap? Are you changing the name of your blog?

Posted by: anon at December 23, 2003 05:58 AM

Michael - exactly right. And even though the dictator himself is quoted as crediting U.S. military might as his main motivation, still the "diplomacy worked" argument raises its ugly head. While diplomacy is important in its own way, it is useless without force.

John O'Sullivan quotes Frederick the Great today: "diplomacy without arms is like music without instruments".

Posted by: Jeff Brokaw at December 23, 2003 07:24 AM

We shouldn't forget the fact that Gaddafi also had a few cruise missiles brushback pitches shot his way, which backed him off of the plate immediately in the short term and, in my view, gives U.S. diplomacy efforts a lot more authority. As Von Clausewitz said in his oft-quoted assertion, "war is an extension of foreign policy by other means." The fact that we negotiated quid pro quo says a lot for America.

Gaddafi has been coming around for a long time. Of course, he is still a dictator, so he'll have to go eventually...

Posted by: Scotty The Body at December 23, 2003 07:25 AM

If there is a serious terrorist attack on American soil, one more deadly than 9/11, what will be your headline? Preemption Doctrince is Costly and Ineffective: Weak Nations (like Libya) Fall in Line, But Terrorism Thrives...or maybe, Force of Empire Effective in All the Wrong Places...

Just curious.

Posted by: poputonian at December 23, 2003 07:42 AM

I guess when Poputonioan gets a cavity, he concludes that brushing his teeth is ineffective.

Posted by: Jim at December 23, 2003 08:08 AM

Yes, let's take Muammar's word for it, he's always been so trustworthy in the past. The truth is, the past decade of UN (!?!) sanctions have had a far greater impact on Libyan "capitulation" than the Bush doctrine or the Iraq war has. Qaddafi has been trying to reposition himself as more western-friendly for years now. In the late 90's (pre-Bush doctrine), he removed most of the radicals from positions of power in his government and he gave up the Lockerbie bombers. For the last several years, he has been depicting himself as an African elder statesman, spreading peace and wisdom about the continent. For a good overview of the changes in Libya, try reading this 2001 (pre-Bush doctrine) article from Foreign Affairs:

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20010501faessay4768/ray-takeyh/the-rogue-who-came-in-from-the-cold.html

Taken at face value, Qaddafi's claim to be afraid is ridiculous. If anyone actually believes that our military is a credible threat to invade and conquer Libya with the majority of it otherwise occupied in Iraq and Afghanistan, I've got some prime agricultural land in the Sahara you might be interested in purchasing. More likely, Qaddafi sees this as a golden opportunity to gain a little domestic cover in his shift to a more conciliatory attitude, and to win some friends in the US government at the same time. It is a victory, both for Libya and the US (and the rest of the world), but I fail to see how it is a victory for the Bush doctrine. Besides, as we are apparently in the business of ridding the world of tyrannical dictators, shouldn't "victory" be regime change, just as it was in Iraq? Won't somebody think of the Libyans?

BTW, nice gratuitous dig at the French/German/Russian Axis of Evil. It's so much easier to take them to task for what you or Mr Apostolou "imagine" they might have done, rather than anything they actually did. Keep on fighting that good fight.

Posted by: Smokey at December 23, 2003 08:23 AM

Jim, thank you. You made my argument for me. To fix a cavity you treat it, you don't have to remove the tooth.

Posted by: poputonian at December 23, 2003 09:20 AM

If there is a serious terrorist attack on American soil, one more deadly than 9/11, what will be your headline? Preemption Doctrince is Costly and Ineffective...

It is not possible to protect this country 100 percent from terrorism. And everyone knows it.

If we get terrorized on Bush's watch, I will not blame him unless he clearly makes a mistake that leads directly to a specific attack. And the same goes if Howard Dean is our next president.
Al Qaeda is going to try to attack us no matter what we do. No grown-up person blamed FDR because Nazi Germany killed American soldiers. They blamed Hitler. I am not in the habit of blaming Americans for the acts of terrorists.

Have you ever seen me join the right-wing bandwagon that blames Bill Clinton for 911? Thought not.

Smokey: Yes, let's take Muammar's word for it, he's always been so trustworthy in the past.

This would be a reasonable point in another context. But I just can't see Gaddafi lying about this. Arab rulers lose tremendous credibility at home when they talk this way, and there's just nothing in it for him to pretend to be weak and afraid.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at December 23, 2003 09:42 AM

I agree that Libya's submission is meaningful on its own, and I also agree that the hawks will talk it up as victory. But if it proves out (and I admit that it hasn't yet) that Al Qaeda is able to operate at will by striking inside the US again, then the real costs of the preemption side-venture will be starkly evident, and Libya will disappear from the news.

Posted by: poputonian at December 23, 2003 10:04 AM

But if it proves out (and I admit that it hasn't yet) that Al Qaeda is able to operate at will by striking inside the US again, then the real costs of the preemption side-venture will be starkly evident, and Libya will disappear from the news.

You would have a point if the hawks declared the Terror War over.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at December 23, 2003 10:06 AM

Berlusconi said that Qaddafi said that. I'm not sure that I'd take Berlusconi at his word.

I'm not sure that oderant dum metuant is something which will work in the long term. I'm pretty sure the Iranians are scared shitless, but their response appears to be to acquire nukes, not bend over for us.

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 23, 2003 10:35 AM

Never mind on Berlusconi's credibility; Qaddafi's brought up the Iraq war thing later on.

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 23, 2003 10:42 AM

The problem with Poputonian's reasoning is that he must assume that his preferred strategy for stopping terror is better than Bush's (it being an elementary fallacy to reject a strategy without proposing an alternative). And clearly his strategy would be imperfect; it would be ludicrous for him to guaruntee that no more al Qaeda attacks would occur under his strategy. But then he would have to admit, on his premise, that his strategy was "ineffective," "the real costs" of it being "starkly evident."

So, Poputonian has not given any argument whatsoever that Bush's strategy is bad. The tooth analogy doesn't work, because Iraq has not been "removed" but rather liberated.

Posted by: Jim at December 23, 2003 12:00 PM

Poputonian – on 9/11, a group of wealthy men, financed by wealthy men, carried out a terrorist attack on American soil. Since you don’t agree with the Preemptive doctorine, I’m sure you have a lot of effective, alternative solutions for ‘removing the tooth’. What are they?

Posted by: mary at December 23, 2003 12:15 PM

And, just when you thought those wacky Democrats couldn't get any wackier, today we have Wesley 'Moonbeam' Clark congratulating Bill Clinton on his brilliant diplomatic triumph with Libya.

You just can't make this kind of stuff up.

Posted by: DennisThePeasant at December 23, 2003 02:31 PM

Poputonian also seems not to take account of the fact that sometimes a tooth cannot be treated and must be removed.

Posted by: Ben at December 23, 2003 02:35 PM

But if it proves out (and I admit that it hasn't yet) that Al Qaeda is able to operate at will by striking inside the US again, then the real costs of the preemption side-venture will be starkly evident, and Libya will disappear from the news.

3 years on from 9/11 and other shoe has not dropped. That's iron-clad proof that Al-Qauida can't "operate at will." We can thank our security forces for that, and that of our allies. Nor will I take is as evidence that AQ "operates at will" if they slip through the net in the near future. It the nature of the business.

Posted by: David at December 23, 2003 04:09 PM

Oh, how sweet this is: Gaddafi, elder statesman of the dictatorial fucks, quaking in his boots, giving up his WMDs, and scared shitless of the good 'ol U-S-of-A. Pardon my language here, but when it comes to this sort of thing I just can't help it. And thank God for Silvio Berlusconi and his dream of a new "community of democracies" reforming the UN. Rack up another victory for Liberal Democratic Diplomacy at the Point of a Gun. Why can't the Democratic Party get more into this sort of thing? Is there no more liberal a notion than fighting for human rights?!

Posted by: Grant McEntire at December 23, 2003 08:04 PM

I think a signature characteristic of the left is their inability to suggest practical alternatives to the course of action they are criticising.

I would like to wish the US 'Homeland Security' forces all the very best for what appears to be a major al Qaida offensive (hope it turns out to be far less than what al Qaida propaganda has been advertising).

It helps to know that Saddam Hussein is gone and the risk of him passing anthrax to al Qaida is removed (hope we weren't too late).

****
http://www.biohazardnews.net/scen_anthrax.shtml
Assessment: An Anthrax Attack on Washington D.C.
A 1993 Report

A 1993 report by the U.S. Congressional Office of Technology Assessment outlines a possible biological terrorism attack on Washington D.C. The imaginary perpetrators used a small airplane to deliver 100 kg (about 220 pounds) of anthrax spores upwind of the city. The number of fatalities would, according to the estimates, vary greatly depending on the weather conditions. The best-case scenario calculates the number of deaths to somewhere between 130,000 and 460,000. A medium estimation counts 420,000 to 1,400,000. The worst-case scenario recognizes that between 1 million to 3 million persons could die as the result of the attack. A fatality rate similar to, or even higher than, that of a hydrogen bomb.

Source: PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION — Assessing the Risks, a report by the U.S. Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, OTA-ISC-599 — Washington D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, August 1993.
****

Bad luck for Hussein if he never had the WMD but given (a) the stakes and (b) the fact that Hussein failed in his last, last, last chance to persuade Hans Blix, I would not have given Iraq the benefit of the doubt either.

Something has to be done about the Middle East or those people will be the death of us all.

Posted by: richard at December 23, 2003 08:28 PM

I'm surprised nobody's mentioned, at least as a secondary or tertiary feature, Gaddafi's desire to have the World Cup 2010 played on Libyan soil. He's a soccer fanatic; one of his sons plays on an Italian team. This could be huge for him.

Posted by: miklos rosza at December 23, 2003 09:00 PM

Okay, so this is a little off topic but I thought I maybe oughta throw it out there, anyway. I was saying 2 comments ago that I wish the Democrats would start to catch on to the liberal notion of fighting for human rights and ditch the nascent isolationism of the anti-war crowd. Well, I guess some already have because here's a website worth checking out; a Draft Tony Blair website:

Beyond the fanciful notion of a Brit running for US President, the site expounds upon a firmly centrist and more responsible third-way alternative...and sells nifty Tony Blair for President beer steins, coffee mugs, bumper stickers, and t-shirts too!

Maybe Lieberman (yeah, he puts me to sleep too but he's the best we got) will step up to the plate and run as an independent on a staunchly pro-Tony third-way ticket if Dean gets the nomination. As chronicled in a recent Weekly Standard article, at least he hasn't completely ruled out such a notion. When asked, point blank, his response was, "I'm a proud Democrat...but my first loyalty is to my country." One can only hope and pray...I'm with you there, Joe.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at December 23, 2003 09:03 PM

Oops...okay, so the link is www.blair2004.com

Sorry about that.

Posted by: Grant McEntire at December 23, 2003 09:07 PM

More likely Lieberman might pull a Zell Miller (though I doubt that). I think he'll just keep his mouth shut, maybe ponder a job in the administration of Hilary 2008.

Posted by: miklos rosza at December 23, 2003 10:07 PM

And thank God for Silvio Berlusconi and his dream of a new "community of democracies" reforming the UN.

Meh. By the time he's done with Italy, it won't be eligible for membership anyway.

Rack up another victory for Liberal Democratic Diplomacy at the Point of a Gun. Why can't the Democratic Party get more into this sort of thing?

Wait, did Qaddafi actually destroy any weapons, or is he just giving up a couple of programs? Has he pledged to stop intervening in civil wars in Chad and the Sudan? Did he promise to step down after overseeing free and fair elections at some point? This is an old-fashioned significant diplomatic coup -- power politics. There's no liberal democracy success here, only the ongoing integration of a dictatorial state into the larger international system. You may think that, in the long run, this will eventually lead to more freedom for the Libyans, but this has nothing to do with the Bush Doctrine and everything to do with how the game has been played since 1989.

Is there no more liberal a notion than fighting for human rights?!

Of course not, but what does the end of a few weapons programs have to do with improving human rights in Libya or elsewhere?

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 24, 2003 08:03 AM

The Anti-War, Humanitarian Left speaks:

"...but what does the end of a few weapons programs have to do with improving human rights in Libya or elsewhere?"

Wow. And I do mean WOW.

Are you really so obtuse as to ask such a question? Are you serious? Do you really need an answer?

This is what you are reduced to?

Posted by: DennisThePeasant at December 24, 2003 08:25 AM

Wow. And I do mean WOW.

Are you really so obtuse as to ask such a question? Are you serious? Do you really need an answer?

Yes, please provide an answer. Connect the dots for us who are not quite as "smart" as you DennisThePeasant and stop hiding behind the smug rhetoric that says, "If you can't figure it out, then I won't explain it to you."

Because by the logic of what you are suggesting by eliminating WMD programs, Libya will be improving human rights in Libya and elsewhere. So then it would logically follow that if the US reduced its weapons of mass destruction programs our human rights would improve? I think the case can still be made that human rights abuses can still happen within Libya without Gaddafi having a WMD program. Saddam proved that in Iraq. His WMD program was effectively stopped after the first gulf war but not his abuse of human rights. He was a bastard with or without WMD.

I see the strategy behind the aggression toward Iraq with respect to the rest of the axis of evil. Attack the weakest one, and hope the others play ball after that. I think that pretty much sums up the strategy. It is simple, elegant and probably doomed to fail.

Iran still has nuclear ambitions. They may postpone them for now while the heat is on, but as soon as we look the other way, they will be back at it. North Korea was actually making progress in the direction of disarmament until the so-called "Bush doctrine" happened so I score that as a failure of the doctrine. Despite the crowing of the Gaddafi victory, I don't think it settled anything. The application of the "Bush Doctrine" will still need to be evaluated on a case by case basis. Iraq was a win. However, I don't believe they posed a real threat to the US. The fact that Iraq switched from using the US dollar to the Euro for oil purchases probably did far more economic damage to the US than anything else Saddam did in the last 13 years.

Posted by: Graham at December 24, 2003 08:58 AM

"Because by the logic of what you are suggesting by eliminating WMD programs, Libya will be improving human rights in Libya and elsewhere."

Well... essentially, yeah. Without WMDs, Libya's got essentially jack with which to resist world pressure towards the liberalization of the current regime. That's why Khadafy wanted the damned things in the first place, after all: it would have given him breathing room.

Of course, the same would have been true of Hussein, but thankfully we were able to remove that threat before it became immanent.

Moe

Posted by: Moe Lane at December 24, 2003 10:31 AM

Good thing happens - All Bill Clinton's doing.

Bad thing happens - Does "the buck stop" at Dubya's desk or not, you right-wing neocons? Huh? And stop dragging Clinton into this... I swear you guys are obsessed!

Posted by: HH at December 24, 2003 10:47 AM

Without WMDs, Libya's got essentially jack with which to resist world pressure towards the liberalization of the current regime.

Iraq seemed to manage for twelve years, under much more brutal pressure than Libya's likely to endure. Libya can hold Italy's economy hostage; "leave us alone or we close the oilfields."

Alternately, maybe you're right -- maybe it is possible for concerted world pressure to change a dictatorship which is helpless before US military might into something more representative. This does, of course, utterly undermine the case for war in Iraq, but everything about how we've handled Libya does.

Well, either that or the detente started a little while ago, and Qaddafi really is different from Saddam, in which case yay to all of the US Presidents and State Department officials (and UN folks) who've slowly pushed Libya toward liberalization. Now let's see if we can get them to stop sponsoring international terror groups.

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 24, 2003 11:24 AM

Has anyone stopped to think that maybe Qaddafi is playing a smarter game than anyone imagines? The guy's a freak, but he's not stupid.

If Al Quaeda has the means and the "luck" to pull off another strike and Qaddafi knows about it and possibly has aided the strike, what safer way to play both ways than to tell the enemy that they've won right before the sucker punch lands.

Paranoid? Maybe. He still has to go.

As another pundit says far too politely, "faster please."

Posted by: John at December 24, 2003 12:01 PM

"Iraq seemed to manage for twelve years, under much more brutal pressure than Libya's likely to endure."

Only if you consider half-measures, badly administered, to be brutal - which, yes, actually I can agree with that. Thank God, then, that the current Administration was able to end this intolerable situation at such a low cost to both sides.

As for your belief that this somehow undermines our motivations for Iraq: I see that you apparently do not accept the concept of the Object Lesson, which makes further conversation on this matter a bit problematic. World pressure matters when there's force backing it up: prior to Iraq, you could make the case that said force would never really be applied to the point where a regime's survival would be at stake. Not anymore. I think that between Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq we've demonstrated our unwillingness to let things slide past a certain point.

Not that I fail to credit past diplomatic endeavours in resolving Libya; let us just say that I expect that Khadafy accelerated his activities in the light of recent events...

Posted by: Moe Lane at December 24, 2003 12:01 PM

The first paragraph of my previous comment refers exclusively to the Iraqi situation.

Posted by: Moe Lane at December 24, 2003 12:02 PM

I hear you, I hear you. I really don't know; certainly the sanctions on Iraq (which, it must be stressed, were entirely successful in their stated goal of keeping Saddam from developing additional WMD) along with the no-fly zones and occasional airstrikes were themselves also something of an object lesson.

I'm not sure I count $150 billion and counting as a low cost, precisely, though I am glad to have been very wrong on the likely casualties of a second Gulf War.

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 24, 2003 12:50 PM

"...were themselves also something of an object lesson."

A fair point.

Posted by: Moe Lane at December 24, 2003 01:41 PM

Ghadaffi's last quote you gave sums it all up. Of course the fact that he even said that shows how much sway and power the US and Britain have over him. He's a wiley character so I still wouldn't hold my breath. However, Ghadaffi was surely showed the stick on one side and a honey sweetened carrot on the other, and he said screw the Arab Nationalists, I'll take the honey sweetened carrot for now.
He saw more benefit joining the winning side in the world, the Anglo/American one. What were those prophetic words of Osama Ben Laden again?

This is also a victory of the US/Britain over the French/Germans/Russians and the UN/EU bureaucrats, Kofi Annan included. And that is just about as important in my opinion as well.

5 more years and let the dominoes continue to fall. A free and prosperous Lebanon with the Christians in South America flocking back home and the Iranians being kicked back to Iran? One can dream?

Mike

Posted by: Mike at December 24, 2003 08:28 PM

what's exasperating about the guardian in particular & "alternative" media sources in general is not so much that they espouse stuff i disagree w/ on a moral as well as intellectual basis, but rather the fact that their arguments are so consistently & wilfully ignorant of the Real World as we know it.

you have to respect incisive objections & we all know everybody uses different assumptions, yardsticks & methods to reach very different conclusions, but this is such a classic example of a piece that simply does not intersect w/ reality.

libya under gaddafi, a "prospectively valuable friend and partner"? the timing of these negotiations, all coincidental? berlusconi's account, nothing more than a ruse? jeez; how unhinged can you get?

Posted by: harm d. at December 25, 2003 11:41 PM

Graham-

I wasn't being smug. I was being shocked.

Somehow the ending of a WMD program of a dictator who has sponsored multiple terrorist outrages across the globe seems to be a self-evident good for the human rights of any and all on the planet. That it was done bloodlessly also seems to be an unequivocal good.

I suppose you can narrow down your definition of 'human rights' to exclude freedom from the threat of being vaporized by a nuclear device, but I'm not really sure how many people would buy into such a definition.

Maybe I was assuming too much in expecting the Anti-War Left to be gracious enough to admit the Libya development as a significant step forward in stabilizing the Middle East and making the world a safer place for all.

Somehow if it had been the accomplishment of a President Dean or Kerry or Clark I have the feeling the reaction from the Left would have been somewhat different from the 'who cares' attitude we are getting from many of them now.

Posted by: DennisThePeasant at December 26, 2003 07:27 PM

The Libya thing is a significant step toward stabilizing the Middle East and making the world safer for all. But then, so were the SALT treaties; both of them were realpolitik dealings with dictators, not idealistic commitments to human rights.

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 27, 2003 09:29 AM

I see. Because the Libyan deal was a "realpolitik", as opposed to "idealistic", dealing with a dictator, it is somehow not quite worthy of us morally. Just what consistutes an "idealistic committment" to human rights when negotiating a disarmament deal with a dictator? Especially when the dictator is the one initiating the negotiations?

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Remember: Silly is a state of Mind, Stupid is a way of Life.
-- Dave Butler
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It's easier to fight for one's principles than to live up to them.
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it's true

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Posted by: W-J-X at December 6, 2007 07:50 PM
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Terror and Liberalism
Paul Berman, The American Prospect

The Men Who Would Be Orwell
Ron Rosenbaum, The New York Observer

Looking the World in the Eye
Robert D. Kaplan, The Atlantic Monthly

In the Eigth Circle of Thieves
E.L. Doctorow, The Nation

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Bill Keller, The New York Times Magazine

Power and Weakness
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Robert D. Kaplan, The Atlantic Monthly

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