December 17, 2003

Not Just the Fringe

According to this Anti-Defamation League poll, 43 percent of Americans believe Israel is a threat to world peace. And 37 percent of Americans believe America is the greatest threat to world peace.


UPDATE: Moe Lane (who blogs at Obsidian Wings) in the comments points out that there must be a mistake. 37 percent can't think America is the greatest threat because 77 percent think North Korea is the greatest threat. It must be that 37 percent think America is a threat to world peace.

Meanwhile, a Gallup poll shows 37 percent (the exact same number as above) say they would vote for Howard Dean if the election were held today, while 60 percent would vote for Bush.

Democrats have a very serious problem, but they still refuse to accept it.

Posted by Michael J. Totten at December 17, 2003 11:03 PM
Comments

Michael,

But whatever you do, don't characterize that 37% as treasonous. I'm sure they are good and loyal Americans whose highest allegiance is to their country and fellow citizens. They're just "dissidents."

Yes, I admit I'm being obsessive about the "T" word. But that is primarily because you singled me out for using it in the first place.

Posted by: HA at December 18, 2003 04:25 AM

It's just the fringe. Must have been a typo; must be 4.3% and 3.7%. It is just a caricature that the right paints of the left half of the forum. I mean, if they were anti-American, don't you think they'd admit it?

Posted by: Jim at December 18, 2003 06:19 AM

Some of them are treasonous. You may be optimistic or pessimistic about the percentage but for some the very idea of being an American is repulsive.

Posted by: Zhombre at December 18, 2003 06:21 AM

Guys, I hate the loons as much as anybody else, but parts of that article are flat-out wrong. The poll indicates that 37% of Americans (as opposed to 53% of Europeans) consider America to be a threat to world peace, not the threat to world peace. The numbers don't add up any other way.

Posted by: Moe Lane at December 18, 2003 06:57 AM

Sounds very Europeanish, just the way Mr. Totten likes it I am sure.

Posted by: JJ Walker at December 18, 2003 07:05 AM

I am skeptical of the results of this poll. Disraeli said something to the effect that "there are lies, damn lies and statistics." I doubt the numbers you give truly reflect an Anti-Israel/Anti-American bias on the part of large segments of the population. To the contrary, I suspect they represent a suggestion that some portion of the blame should be placed on Israelis and Americans, rather than a suggestion that all of the blame belongs there.

Posted by: Ben at December 18, 2003 07:32 AM

The rest of the ADL poll showed strong support for Israel among Americans.

Consider the actual wording of the question:

"For each of the following countries, tell me if in your opinion, it presents a threat to peace in the world, or if it does not present a threat to peace in the world."

What the hell is "peace in the world"? Is it the absence of any war? Call me a literalist, but I'd respond "yes" on the United States. If peace in the world means leaving dictators and tyrants alone, then yes, we are a threat to peace in the world.

Posted by: Oberon at December 18, 2003 09:16 AM

Michael, the manipulation of statistics you just used was utterly unworthy of you. Last week, the election was 50/46, which, given that Dean hasn't even received the Democratic Party nomination, is more or less a dead heat. Saddam's capture gave Bush a boost, which may or may not be permanent. Which you know.

Don't let a good idea get in the way of the facts.

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 18, 2003 01:11 PM

Kimmitt,

I didn't manipulate statistics, I cited them and then posted a correction to what appeared to be a mistake in the original article. Interpret the statistics any way you like, but I manipulate nothing.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at December 18, 2003 01:53 PM

You selected the statistic which supported your view in full knowledge of the fact that it was both temporary and completely contradicted by a different poll taken three days beforehand.

If the Democratic Party has a problem once every six months or so when the incumbent enjoys a major success but is otherwise competitive, then it doesn't have much of a problem. And you know this.

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 18, 2003 01:58 PM

Kimmitt, Dean always polls poorly next to Bush and has never (to my knowledge) polled ahead of him.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at December 18, 2003 02:29 PM

One is extremely hard-pressed to find examples of incumbents polling behind putative challengers before said challengers have even been nominated in a competitive primary, much less had an opportunity to make their case before voters. The fact that Dean and Bush were within the margin of error of one another means that, simply, Dean is competitive with Bush.

I am speaking as someone who was a professional political operative in a past life. Dean's numbers are quite encouraging for a pre-nomination challenger. Most of the serious Dems' numbers are. One bounce does not change the essential dynamic.

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 18, 2003 04:10 PM

LOL.

Michael, you crime is in displeasing, not misrepresenting. And don't try logic. I have and it doesn't work.

However, the above exchange does have value. Not only does it tend to bolster your contention that the Democrats are in a very serious problem, it demonstrates exactly what the problem is...

Posted by: DennisThePeasant at December 18, 2003 04:23 PM

And don't try logic. I have and it doesn't work.

This sentence works on multiple levels.

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 18, 2003 07:04 PM

"Michael, the manipulation of statistics you just used was utterly unworthy of you."

Kimmit, as someone who has had similar nonsense said to me by commenters on my blog, with all due respect (and that ain't much), cut the crap! This "utterly unworthy of you" horseshit is not only unworthy of YOU, it's not worthy of ANYBODY. It's oldest rhetorical gambit in the world. Erase it!

Posted by: Roger L. Simon at December 18, 2003 08:02 PM

If the Democrats' problem is our dovishness/softness on fascism/whatever you'd like to call it--which I think you implied if you didn't state--why does Lieberman do almost exactly as poorly as Dean against Bush?

Posted by: Katherine at December 18, 2003 09:47 PM

It's oldest rhetorical gambit in the world.

True, but it's a goodie. Still, I am glad to be in the company of those perceptive enough to call me on the particulars of my craft.

Posted by: Kimmitt at December 18, 2003 11:17 PM

It was funny to see how this poll was reported on Albawaba.

Posted by: Glenn at December 19, 2003 11:01 AM

I think we should take a M. Totten vs. Kimmitt for President poll, derive the numbers, and then spin furiously while we all try to manipulate the statistics to our advantage. It'll be just like real life....hehe

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"Terrific"
Andrew Sullivan
Author of Virtually Normal

"Brisk, bracing, sharp and thoughtful"
James Lileks
Author of The Gallery of Regrettable Food

"A hard-headed liberal who thinks and writes superbly"
Roger L. Simon
Author of Director's Cut

"Lively, vivid, and smart"
James Howard Kunstler
Author of The Geography of Nowhere


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Essays

Terror and Liberalism
Paul Berman, The American Prospect

The Men Who Would Be Orwell
Ron Rosenbaum, The New York Observer

Looking the World in the Eye
Robert D. Kaplan, The Atlantic Monthly

In the Eigth Circle of Thieves
E.L. Doctorow, The Nation

Against Rationalization
Christopher Hitchens, The Nation

The Wall
Yossi Klein Halevi, The New Republic

Jihad Versus McWorld
Benjamin Barber, The Atlantic Monthly

The Sunshine Warrior
Bill Keller, The New York Times Magazine

Power and Weakness
Robert Kagan, Policy Review

The Coming Anarchy
Robert D. Kaplan, The Atlantic Monthly

England Your England
George Orwell, The Lion and the Unicorn