No takers yet, eh? Figures. ;]

Posted by: Ironbear at October 30, 2003 12:56 AM

I'll take you up on that dare:

...the Iraqi people would be better off now if we had left Saddam Hussein in power...

D'oh!! I lose. Couldn't keep a straight face and my conscience clouded over when I thought about the Mukhabarat coming to take people away from their homes in the night and mass graves in the desert. Posted by: John, Tokyo at October 30, 2003 01:08 AM

Yes, the Iraqi people are better off.
But the answer to your question does not answer another question: are the American people better off for the invasion of Iraq?

I don't have an answer to that. Ask in a year or two when we know if our occupation is a "tough slog" or a quagmire.

Posted by: George Cerny at October 30, 2003 03:30 AM

Well it is still early for Kimmett to get on here.

Posted by: James Stephenson at October 30, 2003 04:38 AM

You know, Kimmitt might be less of a reactionary if we were a little bit kinder to him. He doesn't make it easy, I agree, but, heck, is it really any skin off of our collective noses?

Posted by: Moe Lane at October 30, 2003 05:40 AM

I think Jesse Jackson said it best. This is not about Iraq, this is about Bush.

Posted by: JJ Walker at October 30, 2003 06:20 AM

Kos already did in so many words. Not that that's any big surprise though.

Posted by: Court at October 30, 2003 07:18 AM

Diana????

Posted by: David at October 30, 2003 07:54 AM

I cannot answer that question; ask me again in five years when we've got some idea of how the aftermath panned out.

Maybe ten.

Posted by: Kimmitt at October 30, 2003 07:59 AM

Perhaps it would be possible to answer the question as originally posed by Hari: Are the Iraqi people "better off now", not better off 5 or 10 years from now or in some wholistic thru the thread of time sense.

Requiring complete knowledge of all repercussions is a little tricky---when judgements are made in real life one has only the past and present to go by. If you are unwilling to commit to some evaluation of the current situation then it's hard to see how to make policy decisions at all.

It can't be hard to profess on one's opinion of whether it's better now-at-this-very-instant now, based on the current situation and most likely future prospects, versus what they would be were Hussein still running the place.

Posted by: Ben Keen at October 30, 2003 08:10 AM

There will almost always be a difference between the best decision and the right decision. The best decision is the one you make based on all the available information, the most reliable forecasting of results, and with the best ethical or moral underpinning. But the world is composed of simple sentential logic, and you almost never know if the decision you made was the right one until after you've put your cards down. Often you never know, because you'll never know with much accuracy what would have happened if you'd gone the other way.

But it's all moot. The decision to invade Iraq will be analyzed to death in the years to come, and understand how that decision was made and its consequences will probably provide useful insights for those willing to learn. But whether or not it was a good decision, or the right decision, has absolutely no bearing on what we ought to be doing now, which is something that somethng that a lot of both anti- and pro-warriors haven't realized.

Let's move on, indeed.

Posted by: Christopher Luebcke at October 30, 2003 08:21 AM

I think the question is simply irrelevant. This is not, and never has been, about the welfare of the Iraqis. The more the original justifications for the war prove to be based on, well, lies, the more the hawks pretend that it's really all about the Iraqi people. It's like Mrs. Lovejoy: "Won't somebody PLEASE think of the (Iraqi) children?"

I will say that the 8,000 or so Iraqi civilians who have died in the conflict are quite certainly no better off. They're dead.

Posted by: Smokey at October 30, 2003 10:03 AM

Did World War II leave Britain better off? Hardly. Bombed cities and a ruined economy took years to rebuild. The British lived with wartime conditions and in near poverty for years after the war. Now, who wants to say they should not have fought?

Posted by: Fred Boness at October 30, 2003 10:27 AM

Then make it about the welfare of the Iraqis. If you're concerned about the welfare of the Iraqis, what should we do now?

Posted by: Christopher Luebcke at October 30, 2003 10:28 AM

"The more the original justifications for the war prove to be based on, well, lies"

Stop right there. The original justifications for the war were:

First, Hussein's refusal to demonstrate that he was in compliance with the terms of the ceasefire agreement put in place at the end of the first Persian Gulf War (and we could stop right there, because that was enough). This justification is not a lie: there were terms and he refused to comply with them.

Second - although really not a second more than a first-point-five - was the question of his WMD programs, which was explicitly stipulated as being a danger by three Administrations, the United Nations and indeed most of the rest of the world. This justification is not a lie: it may very well been incorrect, which is not the same thing at all - and given his previous efforts and successes, it was not unreasonable that Hussein prove his innocence to our satisfaction, not we prove his guilt to anybody.

Third is the humanitarian argument, which is relevant in this case because it stemmed in large part from our own callousness. Hussein took the opportunity of the coup attempt - which we encouraged via George HW Bush's official encouragement, damn him for the cowardly apparatchnik that he was and is - to slaughter Kurds, Shi'ites, Marsh Arabs and just about anybody else that disagreed with him. These crimes can be traced back to our actions - if there had been a single nation with both cleaner hands and the ability to liberate Iraq I would have asked (if not begged) them to do it. But there wasn't. It was our mess: we had to go clean it up. This justification is not a lie, either. It happened.

Finally, there's the Dreaded Neocon Argument, which essentially says that toppling Iraq's regime and putting a democracy in its place could help make the rest of the Middle East a bit easier to deal with. That justification is not a lie, either: we call that sort of thing a 'theory'. Whether it's true or not - and I hope that it is - has yet to be determined.

So, all in all, I suggest that you can take this statement that the justifications for the war have been increasing shown to be lies and... *
(deep breath)
...reexamine its validity.

Moe

*As for the real lie (that we were in it for the oil): I suggest that you take it up with Senator Ted F*cking Kennedy and every other looter that tried to stick their feet into the Iraqi door with onerous loans, because right now they're the only ones on the record as trying to pull cr*p like that.

Posted by: Moe Lane at October 30, 2003 10:54 AM

Smokey: This is not, and never has been, about the welfare of the Iraqis.

Sorry, Smokey. I've been writing about it from this angle since long before the war started. And so have a lot of other people.

Paul Berman said it best in Terror and Liberalism.

Freedom for others means safety for ourselves. Let us be for the freedom of others.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at October 30, 2003 10:55 AM

Does anyone remember the Berlin Wall? Or the reason it was put up?

Brain Drain, do we know why? Because a people could look over into West Berlin and see the world was a better place. So people left East Berlin, at least the smart ones. To put a stop to it, they built a wall.

Did anyone else actually get to see this wall? I did in 1988, when I was in the Army, we made a trip to Berlin. And as I was walking through Checkpoint Charlie and saw those men on the tops of the wall with loaded AK-47s, men whose job was not to protect East Berlin from Allied Attack, but to kill people trying to leave it.

It was then that I realized how important my being in West Germany at the time was. How my little contribution meant to real people. I remember how little those people in East Berlin had, how hard it was for them to make it day by day. The lines, the kids trying to sell me Russian Soldier Emblems for D-Marks or especially dollars.

Kimmett is right, 10 years from now, when the countries around Iraq are still stagnate and Iraq has become a prosperous, free-market and secular society the smart people will be leaving their backward countries in the thousands.

P.S. Kimmett knows I like to mess with his Ivory Tower a little.

Posted by: James Stephenson at October 30, 2003 12:06 PM

I can answer that one, it's easy. And the following one posted above. Yes, the Iraqi people are better off now than they were before the war. Why? Because they can believe that they have the chance for a better future for themselves and their children. They did not have that as long as Saddam was in power, or his two evil sons were waiting in the wings. Now write in with something about how the Iraqis don't have a better chance at a better life. I dare you.
We Americans are better off as well, and I write this as someone who recently returned from OIF (www.geocities.com/diggsgorillaremoval/OIF.html), so no, I'm not a chickenhawk. We are better off because two years ago, terrorists were convinced, rightly so, that we were so unaware of them that they could train for an operation right here in the US, at US flight schools, and that we would never guess what evil they were planning. I, for one, am no longer under that illusion of safety, though I'm sad to say that there were hundreds of people still believing in that illusion in DC this last weekend. But we have now taken the fight to the terrorists, on our terms, with soldiers and some pretty deadly weapons. We may still see attacks on our soil, against our families, but that threat is no longer as likely as it once was. We are better off, and I dare someone to write and and say that this battle, now on our terms and with our soldiers and weapons, has left us worse off. We are not breeding more terrorists, we are simply seeing, for perhaps the first time, the terror that was truly out there.

Posted by: Diggs at October 30, 2003 12:23 PM

The reason we must relentlessly expose the lies, corruption, and idiocy which presaged our current situation is so that we may throw out of power the mendacious malfeasants who currently hold authority and replace them with someone interested in responsible governance.

I'll move on in January of 2005, God willing.

Posted by: Kimmitt at October 30, 2003 12:50 PM

Fine, Kimmit, expose one lie, please.

Posted by: Steve Malynn at October 30, 2003 01:04 PM

Kimmitt,

I don't care about the Bush Administration one way or the other. I didn't vote for Bush and feel no need to shill for him.

But I would like to ask what you would do, or what you would have a different president do, to stop Islamofacists (both secular and religious) from killing and enslaving millions of people all over the world, including in New York and Washington.

I'm not asking for vague pronouncements like "don't be arrogant" or "go through the UN." That doesn't work. Posturing has no effect by itself. What I want to know is, what actions do you or would you support?

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at October 30, 2003 02:04 PM

Kimmit: The reason we must relentlessly expose the lies, corruption, and idiocy which presaged our current situation is so that we may throw out of power the mendacious malfeasants who currently hold authority and replace them with someone interested in responsible governance.

But, Saddam is already out of power, what do you mean by "currently hold authority"? We got rid of the mendacious malfeasants...

Wait, you're not talking about Bush are you?

Posted by: Bleeding Heart Conservative at October 30, 2003 02:06 PM

Mendacious malfeasants? what a lovely alliteration, but the use of big words does not make a person thoughtful. There is no evidence so far that the administration is either of these. The argument can be made for nonfeasance, but not malfeasance, and mendacious? Just because you disagree with something doesn't make it a lie.

Kimmet, take a soma and move on now.

Posted by: Jamie at October 30, 2003 02:07 PM

There is no evidence so far that the administration is either of these.

We ran a $345 billion deficit and invaded Iraq on false claims of Iraqi threat to the US. When some of these claims were disputed by Joseph Wilson, his wife was outed in a fit of pique by a senior Administration official. I have no patience with those who would abuse their sacred positions of national trust for the pettiest of revenge.

killing and enslaving millions of people all over the world, including in New York and Washington

1) They already have. The Sudan, Iran, and other theocratic states have endured terrible human rights abuses. Unless you're planning on conquering a solid single-digit percentage of the earth's landmass, we're going to have to accept that Islamic radicals will have some power.

2) Keep North Korea from getting nukes; try to get some kind of safeguards on Pakistan's; continue to deweaponize Russia's nuclear and biological warfare stocks. Inspect container ships with Geiger counters.

3) I have no idea what to do in Iraq, as the chances of success there even with the best of people and plans appears vanishingly small to me, but Bush's folly has made it so that US security is intimately bound up in the eventual fate of the Iraqi people. When we fail to bring democracy to that country, we will be seen worldwide as imperialist conquerors (or naive children with far too much power), rather than benign hegemons or leaders of democratic norms. What to do? Pawn as much of the responsibility off on the UN as possible; get more troops on the ground; probably partition Iraq into three autonomous regions.

4) Accept the fact that we have been largely successful in destroying Al Qaeda and commit appropriate resources to finishing the job in Afghanistan. Start unravelling our ties with Saudi Arabia in preparation for whatever actions we're going to have to take there.

Posted by: Kimmitt at October 30, 2003 04:04 PM

Kimmit,

Non-responsive, viciousness is not malfeasance or mendaciousness.

Posted by: Jamie at October 30, 2003 04:17 PM

I followed Iron Bear over here from Mish's blog and mine. Good writing. Good insight. Horizontal layout gives me such a headache, though, that I couldn't finish the thread.

Posted by: Jeremy Smyczek at October 30, 2003 07:30 PM

Dear Kimmit, right backatcha:

We ran a $345 billion deficit and invaded Iraq on false claims of Iraqi threat to the US.

The whole region is brimming with threats to us. Iraq is right in the center, the very key to the region's future. The WMD issue is a troubling mystery and damaging to our credibility but this episode is far from concluded. The issue has implications for all parties and sides in this conflict and saying simply that "Bush (or Blair) Lied" is a gross partisan distortion in itself. Don't forget that we were already involved in a 12 year "quagmire" with Hussein. He was a powerful enemy sworn to avenge his humiliation, or, alternately glorifying his "victory". The attempt to postumously paint him as some benign local tyrannt is ludicrous. No sane analysis can conclude that we could have any confidence or security in a policy of leaving Saddam alone. Containment seems to have been more successful than many thought but it was extremely costly and not sustainable, we had already lost the propaganda war against the sanctions. Lifting the sanctions and removing the no-fly zones and the troops in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia would be even more dangerous - no one's recepie for longterm peace and security. You don't turn your back on a rogue nation.

When some of these claims were disputed by Joseph Wilson, his wife was outed in a fit of pique by a senior Administration official. I have no patience with those who would abuse their sacred positions of national trust for the pettiest of revenge.

Like I said, this episode is far from concluded and the Wilsons and their cohorts seem to be just as guilty of betraying the nation's trust for petty revenge. You say that we should "start unravelling our ties with Saudi Arabia" but what about Mr. Wilson's ties to the Saudi funded Middle East Institute?

The Sudan, Iran, and other theocratic states have endured terrible human rights abuses. Unless you're planning on conquering a solid single-digit percentage of the earth's landmass, we're going to have to accept that Islamic radicals will have some power.

What do you mean by accept? No one advocates military conquest but I support taking a hardline against such governments. After Iraq, do they feel more or less comfortable aligning against us, or supporting/permitting terrorism?

Keep North Korea from getting nukes; try to get some kind of safeguards on Pakistan's; continue to deweaponize Russia's nuclear and biological warfare stocks. Inspect container ships with Geiger counters.

Geiger counters for each container is not a feasible policy, but I'm glad that you are behind a strong "Homeland Security" measures. For North Korea, Bush's stance of "engaged apathy" seems the least bad option. He has done well to drive a hard bargain and ignore editorials from Jimmy Carter (shudder) et al pleading for Bush to give in to crazy Nork brinksmanship and offer anything - any deal for God's sake! - no matter how unverifiable or lopsided. The news today says that the Norks have taken back their rejection of Bush's moves and are ready to get back to the table. Of course, the fact that this probably means nothing simply highlights the futility of trying to buy them off.

I have no idea what to do in Iraq, as the chances of success there even with the best of people and plans appears vanishingly small to me, but Bush's folly has made it so that US security is intimately bound up in the eventual fate of the Iraqi people.

Yes, and not just the Iraqis but all peoples of the Middle East. That's an inescapable fact. Which is why reform is so important and why we take the gamble of "installing it" rather than waiting around in vain for it to come naturally.

When we fail to bring democracy to that country, we will be seen worldwide as imperialist conquerors (or naive children with far too much power), rather than benign hegemons or leaders of democratic norms. What to do? Pawn as much of the responsibility off on the UN as possible; get more troops on the ground; probably partition Iraq into three autonomous regions.

I'm not sure if this declaration of failure is partisanship or whether you are always ready to give up and despair in the face of adversity and setbacks. This is a long game and there's going to be a lot more bloodshed. It disgusts me to see people ready to throw in the towel because Iraq has not turned in to Switzerland after 6 months. And don't start whining about what Bush or Cheney said. Think for yourself. You cannot cry defeat after every terrorist strike while ignoring all other signs of progress or hope.

4) Accept the fact that we have been largely successful in destroying Al Qaeda and commit appropriate resources to finishing the job in Afghanistan. Start unravelling our ties with Saudi Arabia in preparation for whatever actions we're going to have to take there.

Did you notice that we have started unravvelling our relations with the Saudis. Our troops are leaving - now that Saddam is gone, they're not needed anymore. As for Afghanistan, it is only one front in a worldwide struggle and progress there will be much slower than in Iraq. The people are more isolated and less literate and liberal than the Iraqis. Successful reform there will take much longer and have less effect on the rest of the world.

Al Qaida is just one manifestation of the deeper problem. The root causes lie in extreme political oppression, corruption and socio/economic backwardness. Iraq is now in position to free itself from these forces. Not only are the Iraqis better off without Hussein, but so are we, so is the region, and so is the rest of the world.

Posted by: John, Tokyo at October 30, 2003 07:36 PM

Like I said, this episode is far from concluded and the Wilsons and their cohorts seem to be just as guilty of betraying the nation's trust for petty revenge.

"Slime and Defend -- it's not just a way to misdirect scandals; it's a way of life."

It disgusts me to see people ready to throw in the towel because Iraq has not turned in to Switzerland after 6 months.

And it disgusts me to see people treat American servicemen and women as geopolitical pawns, rather than both citizens and defenders of American lives and interests. I am not weak for wanting our soldiers not to die.

Posted by: Kimmitt at October 30, 2003 07:43 PM

Sorry Kimmit,

You were right about the slime. I retract my cheap shot about Wilson's Saudi connection, although I don't think most Bush opponents are in good position to complain about fighting dirty - Wilson in particular. I withdraw that and stick with my comment that no conclusions can be drawn yet about the WMD situation and the little Wilson/Plame/yellowcake sideshow. We have much to learn before we get to the bottom of this.

Your second point about our soldiers is not relevant. When you say that you don't want them dying, you make it sound as we do. Is your threshold for troop deployment zero casualties? If this is your standard, we can never fight any battles in any conflict. Our enemies, Baathist or Qaidaists, are trying to kill us, and a lot of other people too. We won't stop them without fighting and there will be brave American servicemen killed (British and other coalition members as well).

The main point is whether our men and women are risking their lives in vain or for a worthy cause. I state again: Iraqis are better off without Saddam. Because of this, we are better off without Saddam and ultimately, the world is better off because our countrymen in the armed forces are risking everything, and sometimes losing everything.

The terrorists are not going to give up so neither can we. Iraq can succeed. It will succeed, Insh'Allah, because I don't think a majority of Americans will be swayed by your transparent defeatism.

I should also point out here that many Iraqis are now fighting and dying for their own future and we owe it to them to support them all the way. If they succeed, then the idea of progress in the Middle East has hope and we may not have to spend the next 3 generations playing defense against terrorism.

Posted by: John, Tokyo at October 30, 2003 10:42 PM

Of course the Ba'athists were trying to kill us. But so were the Soviets, the North Vietnamese, and any number of other bad and/or misguided people. The question is whether or not they presented a real threat, and the answer, made crystal-clear by the Kay report, is that they were utterly impotent, completely emasculated by our sanctions and policy of containment.

The terrorists are going to give up, if we are not stupid enough to give them favorable terrain wherein they can strike with impunity at American targets and fertile ground for recruitment. They're going to give up because we're going to kill and/or capture their leaders, then decline to feed the legitimate grievances which fuel the rage of the foot soldiers. Invading Iraq was a step in the exact wrong direction -- we gave them a tactically advantageous situation and fed them grievances, while ignoring opportunities to capture and/or kill more higher-ups in Afghanistan and along the Afghan border.

It's ironic, really -- Bush engages in stupid, counterproductive policy which increases US exposure to terror, then points to the increased risk as a reason why his stupid, counterproductive policies must be rewarded with reelection.

Posted by: Kimmitt at October 30, 2003 11:17 PM

Thanks for a mostly excellent defense, Kimmit. Do you notice argument parallels with failed gov't schools (in opposing vouchers): the NEA engages in stupid, counterproductive policy which increases gov't school exposure to black illiteracy, then points to the increased risk as a reason why their stupid, counterproductive policies must be rewarded with increased funding.

My point is that ALL gov'ts have problems with policies, and use their own failures as a reason to increase and strengthen their own positions. Rewarding failed gov't policies with more taxpayer money. The Big Gov't Dems, historically, far more than the Reps. But Bush is a far bigger deficit spender than (the Reps would let) Clinton (be)!

Iraq needs more local elections, see: my http://tomgrey.motime.com/1067554482#165951
where I also support loans ... to Iraqis, where the Iraqis decide how to use the money. Not just Iraqi politicians, but any organization or company of Iraqis -- local finance is a major issue in getting the local Iraqi economy more market oriented.

On Iraq being better off, I was booted off Alternet over disagreements on this question. It is true that the particular 8000 or so dead Iraqis, and the almost 500 dead Americans would prolly be alive had Bush not invaded and freed the 23 000 000 Iraqis. (including how many Baathists?) How many Iraqis died in 2001-2002 from the sanctions?
According to the Campaign Against Sanctions
http://www.casi.org.uk/

"if the substantial reduction in child mortality throughout Iraq during the 1980s had continued through the 1990s, there would have been half a million fewer deaths of children under-five in the country as a whole during the eight year period 1991 to 1998" Unicef, 12 August 1999.

So let's say it's some 50 000 children under five MORE deaths, per year, with sanctions.

The 8000 who died are worse off. The 50 000 who did NOT die (25k in 6 months), and the 50 000 or more who will not die each year from now, are better off.

This are real life tough tradeoffs. I admit, I would NOT trade the life of any of my three children for 10, 100, or 1000 Iraqis. But I WOULD accept a higher risk of my dieing, or their dieing, in order to reduce Iraqis dieing. And all US soldier volunteers (mercenaries so much better than slaves) accepted the risks. That's why they're noble, and deserve the honor they get, and more.

And even why Bush, ordering them to do great things while knowing some will tragically die, deserves more support for the GOOD of booting Saddam. As long as the Left cannot accept this goodness, they're lost.

Posted by: Tom Grey at October 31, 2003 12:41 AM

increased US exposure to terrorism, eh?

exactly how many americans have died due to terrorism since Sept 12, 2001?

exactly how many americans died in the 5 years before sept 12, 2001? or in the 5 days?

are you sure we've increased our exposure?

make no mistake--we're not safe. But i find it interesting that we have Facts here, demonstrating a correlation between less terrorism and our actions in afghanistan and iraq. Mere coincidence? Do we have any evidence that might show terrorism increased elsewhere but not against americans? ah, yes. Bali. Africa. Iraqi targets in Iraq. Jordanian targets in Iraq. European/NGO attacks in Iraq.

interesting correlations there.

Posted by: foo at October 31, 2003 12:46 AM

I AGREE, Iraq would be better off if the US didn't help Saddam get to power and then proceed to support him during his worst atrocities, calling him 'our S.O.B.'. Finally Iraq certainly would be better of if we did not undermine any indigenous opposition to Saddam in 1991 and earlier and then proceed to institute a particular form of sanctions that only strenthened his control on the population while entirely decimating the Iraqi population. These are the questions we should be asking ourselves and we live in a free society with easy access to this information. Go see for yourselves,There is plenty out there. To give you all just a basic idea of how close the US relationship with Saddam's regime, Iraq actually attacked a US vessel in March 1987 and killed 37 sailors. http://eightiesclub.tripod.com/id280.htm
Its not without precedent but its worth keeping in mind that the precendent was set by the Americas closest ally, in 1967 Israel attacked the USS Liberty; thats just a little taste to how close the relationship between the people currently in Washington now and the same identical people in Washington then under Reagan. WIth regards to the sanctions regime start with the Defense Intelligence Documents below. Theres plenty more.

http://www.progressive.org/0801issue/nagy0901.html

Posted by: Zaid Khalil at October 31, 2003 01:07 AM

"To give you all just a basic idea of how close the US relationship with Saddam's regime, Iraq actually attacked a US vessel in March 1987 and killed 37 sailors."

Erm, how does this show that Iraq and the US had a close relationship? And what on earth does this have to do with the Liberty, which has been proved over and over to be an accident?

You're getting some Class A trolls these days Michael. . . .

Posted by: Yehudit at October 31, 2003 03:12 AM

he interim Kay report makes nothing clear, Kimmit. Well actually, if you read about the vast weapons dumps/caches that will take years to fully investigate, it's pretty crystal- clear to me that whatever Saddam's intentions/ambitions were, they were not peaceful and not restricted to merely terrorizing his own people into submission. Everything beyond that is still speculation.

Speaking of speculation, what makes you believe this:

The terrorists are going to give up, if we are not stupid enough to give them favorable terrain wherein they can strike with impunity at American targets and fertile ground for recruitment. They're going to give up because we're going to kill and/or capture their leaders, then decline to feed the legitimate grievances which fuel the rage of the foot soldiers.

I recognize now one of the roots of our disagreement and misunderstanding. There is no science and there will never be a formula or equation for identifying and quantifying the exact causes of Islamic terrorism and the proper manner to combat it. Even the regional experts do not agree and so it's highly unlikely that two blog readers thousands of miles apart will succeed in establishing the truth or persuading one another. Nevertheless, let's talk a little about grievences and ideology.

Supporters and opponents of the war alike realized that this would be used by terrorists as a reason to attack us, a reason to hate us. The problem that you and other Doves don't acknowledge or don't understand is that Islamic extremists will use any pretext as a recruiting and motivational tool and it is almost certain that their ranks would have continued to swell while their donations revenues increased with or without the invasion.

You have seen the terrorist recruiting videos and read their fatwahs!! Before 9/11, Al-Qaida's number one grievance, ahead of even Israel and Palestine, was our troop presence in Saudi Arabia. Containment, which you claim was effective, filled the Al-Qaida ranks just as much as the invasion. The whole Islamic world (and the left half of ours) raged about the suffering in Iraq from the sanctions. That we had gone there originally not to steal Saddam's oil but for our Muslim allies, the Kuwaitis and the Saudis was forgotten. No-fly zones were seen as humiliation and provocation and not a means of protecting Kurdistan. That Saddam kept on spending on arms and palaces and other vanity projects was ignored while Al-Jazeera dutifully recorded the parades with infant coffins through the streets of Baghdad. When the war was over we found out that Saddam had hoarded dead children in freezers, preventing their burial until he had enough for a parade. But these details are always ignored along with any details that complicate the righteous fury and endless self pity of extremists.

The other option, withdrawal, would have been an even bigger disaster. Withdrawal would have filled their ranks even more as Saddam, al-Qaida and all other groups clambored to take credit and claim triumph over the weak paper-tiger imperialists. I personally don't mind people thinking America is weak, except that all evidence suggests that weakness and accomodation produce even greater incitements to terrorism. Triumphalism animates Islamic terrorism even more than their all-important grievances. We were thus dammed if we do, dammed if we don't.

Establishing a new democratic Iraq offers a way out. The autocrats and extremists know this will fight this new Iraq tooth and nail. In spite of all the hardships and whatever their feelings toward the U.S., there is no sign that the majority of Iraqis are with the rest of the Islamic world against this new Iraq. Once again: Iraqis are better off without Saddam. The whole region (except the ruling classes) is better off without Saddam. If it stays that way, we will be much better off than before. Yes, it's going to be a fight and it's going to take years rather than months. It's too bad you and so many others want to capitulate.

Posted by: John, Tokyo at October 31, 2003 04:52 AM

(the Reps would let) Clinton (be)!

Look, I know that it's reasonable to assume that an entire House of Congress had something other than pure evil on its mind, but I assure you that the fiscal sanity Clinton imposed was entirely at the expense of the Republicans. Spending went up less while he had a Democratic Congress than while had a Republican Congress, because he didn't have to placate the Party of Pork.

Posted by: Kimmitt at October 31, 2003 10:50 AM

I'm sick and tired of these strawman arguments.

Look. Would Uzbekistan be better off without Karimov? Of course.

Should we invade Uzbekistan and install a democracy? No.

We just can't go around invading everybody.

Posted by: praktike at October 31, 2003 01:12 PM

We just can't go around invading everybody.

Of course not. It isn't even remotely possible. But that does not mean that we should never invade anywhere.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at October 31, 2003 03:42 PM

Of course not. It isn't even remotely possible. But that does not mean that we should never invade anywhere.

Fair point. But I disagree that Iraq should have been invaded. The containment regime was effective. I don't believe you can create democracy via war, I don't support the PNAC agenda, and I would have preferred we focus on Al Qaeda.

And, to reiterate: this strawman argument about "the world is better off without Saddam" is incredibly asinine.

Posted by: praktike at October 31, 2003 04:50 PM

I don't believe you can create democracy via war

We've done it before, and surely you know that.

this strawman argument about "the world is better off without Saddam" is incredibly asinine.

How is it a strawman argument? It's a statement of fact, isn't it? The world, especially Iraq, is better off without Saddam. Period. Case closed.

Unless you actually want to argue the opposite, which I doubt very much that you do.

The whole point of this post is to help the anti-warriors acknowledge that some good has come from the war, even if you don't think it's worth it overall. I'm not trying to flip you over to my side. I only ask that you acknowledge the Iraq war isn't 100 percent bad. That isn't really asking too much, is it? I agree that it isn't 100 percent good.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at October 31, 2003 05:11 PM

Michael,

I don't think we're disagreeing as much as we think we are.

That said, I remain highly skeptical of our ability to successfully impose democracy from without, and via force. I should have been more cautious in how I phrased this, so you have a point there. I'd like to hear your examples of success stories, though.

How is it a strawman argument? It's a statement of fact, isn't it? The world, especially Iraq, is better off without Saddam. Period. Case closed.

Unless you actually want to argue the opposite, which I doubt very much that you do.

My point is exactly that: nobody wants to argue the opposite.

Let's go through this carefully.

Step 1:
Reasonable opponents of the war--that is, people who are not categorically opposed to war per se--generally agree with the following position, among others. Let's call it X.

"I, person A, don't support the Iraq war because America was more secure under the existing containment regime."

Step 2:
You, person B, attack position Y, the ludicrous proposition that the world is better off with Saddam: "The world, especially Iraq, is better off without Saddam."

See how it works?

A says X.
B says Y is wrong, therefore X is wrong.

Ain't no modus ponens there.

Posted by: praktike at October 31, 2003 06:20 PM

And yes, there are no 100 percents on either side. I can admit that.

Posted by: praktike at October 31, 2003 06:21 PM

Starting a war against another nation is not a good way of helping the people of that nation. People tend to interpret it dropping bombs as a hostile act and respond accordingly.

This is something that is obvious to most people in the world. That's why you can't find a religious leader or any person known for their conscience who supports this war. Honestly to me it strikes me as bizarre that people would think otherwise.

It is hard to say whether Iraq is better off with Saddam Hussein in hiding. I'm not particularly concerned. George Bush is the President of the United States. His responsibility is to look out for the welfare of the United States.

Will anybody here say that America is better off with 350 dead and counting? Will anybody say that America is better off with thousands of wounded? Will anyone say that America is better off with it's international reputation shattered? Will anyone say that America is better off with it's Army and CIA under assault from the current administration? Is America better off having stolen an additional $150billion and counting from our nation's children.

Some people in this thread are in a strange trance about being at a war of civilizations -- lumping in Al Qaeda and Iraq. This basic reality testing wasn't done and a lot of Americans are dead for a daydream.

Posted by: copithorne at October 31, 2003 06:52 PM

praktike,

I see your point. Do recall, though, that the topic of this post was whether or not the Iraqi people (not Americans) were better off with Saddam in power.

My view is that Iraqis, Americans, and everyone else (except the Baathists) are better off with Saddam gone.

If your view is that America was better off with Saddam contained and in power, while acknowledging that Iraqis were worse off with Saddam contained and in power, then I can respect your view (while disagreeing with you) more than I can respect those who claim to speak for Iraqis and say they would have been better off if we never showed up and freed them from him.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at October 31, 2003 07:31 PM

Michael. We're cool. Thanks for an engaging discussion. I admire you for getting around the blogosphere and defending yourself today. You must be tired.

Some thoughts, if only because I can't fall asleep.

I certainly can't speak for the Iraqis. My guess, though is that the vast majority of them are better off. Indeed, some of them are worse off (Baathists, for instance). I imagine there are some who are hurt by the instability.

I'm not a utilitarian, so it's hard for me to deal with averages. If I were, though, I'd say that some people may derive more utility from stability w/ tyranny than from freedom w/ chaos.
There's always the idea that "freedom isn't free" w/o order.

You get the point, I hope--it's not completely ludicrous to assert that some Iraqis might actually be worse off at the present time.

I'm not prepared to say that, but I don't think that someone who does (assuming they're making a case based on evidence and not a knee-jerk reaction) is, ipso facto, morally wrong.

Posted by: praktike at October 31, 2003 09:07 PM

"...I have said in this political climate, that I am ashamed of the behavior of people who call themselves either members of the Democratic Party (whose politics I usually support, incidentally) or as Liberals (funny, I always thought I was one). But, I will not hesitate to tell someone off. I believe in a form of politics that supercedes philosophical discussions. I believe in Pragmatism.

Pacifism is a beautiful word. No one wants war. Not you. Not I. But, the most passionate Pacifist is only relatively so. What I mean is, it's easy to be a Pacifist here in America. That's because Hussein and other menaces are far away. The closer a gun is pointed to your head, the less of a Pacifist you are...the more you're interested in stopping the guy pointing the gun to your head.

Granted. Saddam Hussein never pointed a gun to my head. I also never want to wait long enough for him to do so. PRE-EMPTIVE WAR is one of the realities we all have to face. There will never be another 9/11...and I could give a sh*t if there is or isn't a direct line to Hussein. He had to go. Period. That regime wouldn't think twice about giving an extremist a suitcase filled with a dirty bomb.

I am passionate about America. It has given me (and in my estimation, the world) everything I ever wanted... including the right to disagree, without winding up in a can of dog food. And, because of my passionate love of America, warts and all, I will stand up and defend her at the drop of a hat.

Is America always right? No. But for 100 years, it seems to me, it has gotten most of it right. The most powerful force the world has ever known is not conquering other countries. Previous world powers, had a colonial agenda. This included at various times in history: Rome, Greece, Nazi Germany, France, England, Communist Russia and Persia. There are more.

But, aside from the French complaining (don't they always?) about the influx of the AMERICAN CULTURE, I don't see America expanding its borders...All the countries in the world are free to rule themselves as they see fit...as long as they don't threaten anyone else.

..."America, love it or leave it?" I never subscribed to that ideal. It's actually UnAmerican. I DO believe in different opinions. But, I am also ashamed of any American especially, who gets up on stage in a different country to badmouth America, while American troops are dying in a desert country they would never want to live in.

...The war, for the most part is over. The British and the Aussies, (God bless em both,) amid a murky political situation, stood alongside Americans and did what had to be done.

The Iraqi's are free.

I suggest anyone having a problem with this war go talk to the Iraqi's. Ask them if they prefer freedom (even at the price of, initially having what seems to be chaos), or if they prefer Saddam Hussein come back and reinstates the old ways.

I DARE anyone to say the Iraqi's were better off before, under Hussein.

And, after the war dies down, and people here in America go back to normalcy, there will be people who say that they are "non-violent." You don't want to get into fights. But, what that really means is, you don't want to pick on anybody.

Problem is, the bad guys don't always agree with you. You see, if you're against violence and some guy holds a gun to your head and asks you for your money, you better re-think your position. You better become VERY VIOLENT at that moment. Or, you're dead.

Being a Pacifist, is an ideal. I subscribe to it. I'm against violence. But, only CONCEPTUALLY, if you threaten my children, I wouldn't think twice about snapping your neck on the spot. I suspect most people would take my view.

You can tell by the length of this missive, that this issue has gotten under my skin. So, I'll try to recap my feelings, in brief. Get ready, 'cause here comes the truth:

America is the world's only hope for a bright future.

Yes. I mean that. Yes, I know you live in another country and your country is cool, too. But, America is the only Superpower. There are no others. And that means, the world is a better place. Because if Nazi Germany or Communist Russia were the only superpowers, we would all be either dead or forced to live under their regimes.

America is not interested in ruling your country. If you think it does, smoking crack may be your answer.

I wasn't born here. But, I have a love for this country and its people that knows no bounds. I will forever be grateful to America for going into World War II, when it had nothing to gain, in a country that was far away...and rescued my Mother from the Nazi German Concentration Camps.

She is alive and I am alive because of America.

And, if you have a problem with America, YOU HAVE A PROBLEM WITH ME."

Gene Simmons, KISS

Posted by: Bleeding Heart Conservative at October 31, 2003 10:43 PM

praktite: it's not completely ludicrous to assert that some Iraqis might actually be worse off at the present time.

Of course. Some of them are dead. Some were forced to fight against their will and got shot by Marines.

It's war. It's hell. I don't deny it for a minute.

Posted by: Michael J. Totten at November 1, 2003 02:11 AM

exactly how many americans have died due to terrorism since Sept 12, 2001?

Months following Sept. 11th: Anthrax attacks on Democratic politicians and left-leaning publications. 5 Americans killed.

June 14, 2002: Terrorist attack by truck with fertilizer bomb outside US Consulate in Karachi. 12 killed, 0 Americans.

October 12, 2002: The Bali bombing. 202 dead, 7 Americans.

May 12, 2003: Riyadh bombings kill 29, 7 Americans.

Over the past two years, it appears that appoximately six Americans were killed by Palestinians and two by Israelis as part of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

...and then we get into Iraq; should every postbellum hostile death in Iraq be counted as a terrorism death?

Nice choice of "five years," by the way -- it means that you don't have to include the Oklahoma City bombing, which killed more people than all non-September-11th terrorist attacks against the US combined. Nevertheless:

Centennial Olympic Park bombing: 1 killed.

June 25, 1996: Khobar Towers bombing; 19 killed.

August 7, 1998: US embassy bombings; 213 killed, 12 Americans.

Posted by: Kimmitt at November 1, 2003 10:16 AM

Sorry; did not include the Cole bombing:

October 12, 2000; 17 US soldiers killed.

Posted by: Kimmitt at November 1, 2003 10:18 AM

Wow I did not realize France, Germany and Japan were not Democracies. What of South Korea. Man all of those democracies started because of wars.

Please people, look at history and the facts.

Posted by: James Stephenson at November 4, 2003 08:22 AM

Wow I did not realize France, Germany and Japan were not Democracies. What of South Korea. Man all of those democracies started because of wars.

France was a democracy at various points in its history, and that was essentially homegrown. Germany was a Constitutional Monarchy running up to WWI, then switched over to a democratic government following it (which of course collapsed into fascism, but that's a parable for another day).

I'm not sure what your post regarding South Korea refers to; South Korea's self-rule has been rather slowly homegrown -- we have guaranteed its security, but its people have slowly chipped away at its authoritarian government to produce a more free society.

The point is that, in general, people have to want democracy enough to demand it, or else the difficult parts of democracy -- the need for tolerance and civility; adherence to the Rule of Law even when you lose; the balance of majority rule and minority rights -- become overwhelming, and people look for authoritarian or more traditional solutions.

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