October 26, 2003
New Tech Central Station Column
I have a new Tech Central Station column up: The Crucial Alliance.
Posted by Michael J. Totten at October 26, 2003 09:32 PMI apologize if it is not good blog etiquette to post such a long feedback piece, but I really think that all fans of Arab democracy-building should read the following by, of all people, Daniel Pipes: (from danielpipes.com)
What to do in Iraq? The question is made urgent by the steady attrition of coalition forces, punctuated by seven large car-bomb explosions. The latest of them, on Sunday, killed six and wounded dozens at the Baghdad Hotel.
More broadly, the briefly held gratitude to the coalition for being relieved of Saddam Hussein's hideous rule has been overtaken, as the weeks turn into months, by feelings of resentment. Iraqis complain that the bridges have not been rebuilt fast enough, the currency is not steady enough, and utilities are not regular enough. A people accustomed to live in the confines of a totalitarian state finds the free-for-all disturbing.
Even Iraqis working closely with the coalition are grumbling with Washington's decisions. The Iraqi Governing Council (IGC), an appointed body, has expressed dismay at the prospect of Turkish troops being stationed in Iraq – something the Bush administration had worked particularly hard for.
These divergences between Iraqis and their liberators are likely to increase over time.
What to do? It's simple, actually: Turn power over to the Iraqis. Let them form a government. Reduce the scope of Presidential Envoy Paul Bremer's role.
Take coalition forces off their patrols of city streets and away from protecting buildings, and put them in desert bases. From there, they can undertake the key tasks of controlling the borders, guaranteeing the oil and gas infrastructure, chasing down Saddam Hussein, and providing the ultimate authority for the Iraqi government – without being in the Iraqi population's face.
Admittedly, this advice runs roughly along the lines of what the French government is calling for; President Jacques Chirac has said that "There will be no concrete solution unless sovereignty is transferred to Iraq as quickly as possible," and called for a shift of power over six to nine months.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell responded by dismissing such a transfer as "totally unrealistic." The US plan is for the Iraqis to take control in a matter of years, not months.
But Iraqis hostile to the coalition and the French are not alone in wanting a speedier transition; so too do those Iraqis working with the coalition, whether they are tight with Teheran, Riyadh, the CIA, or the Defense Department.
Most notably, Ahmad Chalabi, head of the Iraqi National Congress, is urging for Iraqis at least partially to take over the finance and security ministries. This has met with wide support, enhancing Chalabi's popularity. The Financial Times reports that his "proposals on sovereignty strike a chord among ordinary Iraqis, who feel the best way to get the country moving is the return of control."
So major a change in direction has unpleasant implications for Washington.
It raises questions about American staying power; forfeits much of the credibility that came from the successful war against Saddam Hussein; risks throwing away a chance of victory; and permits Arab, European, and Democratic critics to crow. Worse, it will be noted that sustained violence against US troops works, perhaps inviting further attacks on US forces elsewhere.
These are valid reasons not to pull out – but they lose their pertinence if one expects, as I do, that the mission in Iraq will end in failure. I predict that unhappy outcome not due to shortcomings on the American side but by calculating the US motivation for being there versus the Iraqi motivation to remove them.
The latter strikes me as more formidable. It reflects the intense hostility commonly felt by Muslims against those non-Muslims who would rule them. For examples, note the violence undertaken by (among others) Palestinians, Chechens, Kashmiris, and Moros.
From this pattern, I draw a rule of thumb: unless a non-Muslim ruler has compelling reasons to control a Muslim population, it will eventually be worn down by the violence directed against it and give up. Note that the US government has already given up twice in recent years, in Lebanon and Somalia.
The US-led effort to fix Iraq is not important enough for Americans, Britons, or other non-Muslim partners to stick it out. That is why I advocate handing substantial power over to the Iraqis, and doing so the sooner the better.
Posted by: Markus Rose at October 27, 2003 11:09 AMTurn power over to local mayors, meaning also give them money. And set up structures for those Iraqis, perhaps like clerics, who disagree with Iraqis who weild the power.
Get local Iraqis from local elections to have local power.
But do it from the bottom up, and say it is from the bottom up. Do NOT expect to force a totally friendly regime.
Posted by: Tom Grey at October 27, 2003 11:20 AMMichael, I just wanted to say that was a great column. The letters from the Australian readers were really frightening.
Posted by: x at October 27, 2003 01:23 PMThe thing is, what if Iraq is like Weimar Germany (or even modern Turkey) and if we turn it over to a democratic process, an Islamic regime will take control, then throw out the not-yet-fully-held democratic norms?
Posted by: Kimmitt at October 27, 2003 04:50 PMMarkus: Do you really think the Bush admin is not trying to form a new Iraqi society from the ground up?
They fully understand that we have a limited time to accomplish our mission there.
This is a VERY difficult task amidst fighting terroist, trying to rebuilt the infastructure of a broken country, and trying to destroy hugh weapons stockpiles.
Posted by: tallan at October 27, 2003 05:06 PMKimmitt: what if...we turn it over to a democratic process, an Islamic regime will take control, then throw out the not-yet-fully-held democratic norms?
It depends on what that Islamic regime did next. If it made "death to America" its national policy we'd have a problem with that. If it turned insular and backward but left the rest of the world alone, then the theocracy would be their own problem. Though the failure of democracy would be a major bummer and strategic setback for liberalisation in the region.
Posted by: Michael J. Totten at October 27, 2003 05:22 PMKimmet,
Point well taken. Postwar Iraq is not analogous to any country that has ever been successfully rehabilitated in our entire history. The comparison is especially weak in relation to post-WWII Germany, Japan, UK, Italy, etc... In what ways is successful nation building in Iraq historically unprecidented?:
1) Iraq has no traditions, no habits of thought or behavior, and no institutions to support the growth of a participative government. Iraqi history is counter indicative of these values.
2) The Iraqi economy is based upon the extraction of a single commodity, oil. Historically, economies based upon a single resource favor the severe concentration of economic and political power.
3) The Iraqi people are not homogeneous. There are three groups of people bound to compete for resources, power, and security in post Sadam Iraq (2 branches of Islam and the Kurds).
4) The US government (as stated by candidate Bush)has no intention of engaging in nation building. This administration does not have a plan, refuses to use Iraqi firms or labor for any significant work, and tends to grant contracts without regard to cost effectiveness or assurance of results. It looks like a ponzi scheme from here.
5) The US military is not prepared to maintain a long term occupancy, and we have alienated our allies. This mercenary army is not properly staffed to maintain an occupation force without compromising elsewhere around the globe, and this is not what their training has prepared them for. They are not trained in keeping the peace, rather their expertise is in winning armed conflicts. Our armed forces don't have the ethic, the tradition, or the institutions required to do so.
6) Our intelligence is broken. If the intelligence was functional... we could have gone into this conflict with a clear understanding of what was required of our forces, of our government, and of our allies. Rather, we are running blind, and without a map.
7) Our leadership is not qualified to nation build. There are no warrior/scholars on the horizon analogous to General McArthur in Japan. No one capable of taking charge of the economy, security, and governance of Iraq. Additionaly, it seems that our Commander in Chief does not trust the military to handle the job, rather it is viewed as a job for Haliburton (payback time).
Michael,
Note that even Roosevelt had the decency to wait for a pretext, Pearl Harbor. Actually, the Japanese declared war on the United States before we declared war on them... unfortunately the message was delayed in delivery.
Additionally note that in retrospect the Germans were very close to developing atomic weapons and the ability to deliver payload to the US Eastern Seaboard. If we had not actively bombed their rocketry and atomic weaponry R&D sites (entirely without knowing what they were) it is likely that the Germans would have beaten the UK, and then focused on North America. The Germans and Japanese threatened our international monetary regime, our trading partners, and our shipping lanes; they threatened our economy, but even that was not enough... it took an attack.
Note that the concern begining to dawn upon ordinary americans is that the religious right and multinational corporations appear to be working in concert to undo the New Society and even the New Deal. In this context this war, the post-war effort, and the patriot act are viewed as mendacity ala Nixon on the Tet Offensive, a radical undermining of the social contract, and blatant corporate welfare, while cutting taxes for the rich, passing on unfunded mandates to states thereby bankrupting them, and continuing to defund social services. They don't want the pendulum to swing, they want to radically redefine the political landscape ala Mexico.
These are not the times of Wilson, or Roosevelt; nor are they the times of Lincoln (when the Grand Old Party was the party of emancipation). The core of the Democratic party is not pacifist or isolationist. They are internationslists Like Wilson (League of Nations) and Roosevelt (United Nations). The democrat rank and file support international cooperation with our allies.
If democrats were pacifist, then we would not have a military budget that is twice the size of all othere military budgets around the world combined. The democrats have funded the military as much as the republicans have, they just have problems with cowboy diplomacy (unilateral military action), with being sold lies and/or incompetence, with having the Bill of Rights undermined (the patriot act), and the undermining of the UN (an essentially American institution).
This is not about the democrat or republican parties, and it is not about the left or right. The Left disappeared when the Socialist Party stopped running candidates, and the Right disappeared when Barry Goldwater became marginalized. This is about the domination of corporate money in the electoral process, the concentration of media in fewer and fewer hands, the religious right's monomoniacal commitment to their agenda, and a growing sense of political hopelessness on the part of ordinary citizens(voter turnout too low to call it a democracy by any reasonable standard).
Dean has support for many reasons, but not because he is anti-war, or a pacifist. There is no indication that he is a pacifist, unlike Kucinich. Dean has the spine to take a stand on the healthcare crisis (an election issue since 1972, Nixon), to support international law, and to touch on a taxation system that permits the middle class to fund the government out of proportion to the benefits they derive.
The rank and file of both parties don't give a hoot about wahhabism. Nor are they likely to take these recent revelations about our former "friends" in Saudi Arabia at face value. It is all too convenient. Don't these revelations come from the same sources whou claimed that Saddam was an imminent threat to us?
As long as our dependence upon foreign oil is fed by single commodity countries, we will be funding misery, whether directly or indirectly, whether it is expressed in the form of wahhabi extremism, palestinian terrorism, suni militarism, or Kurdish extermination (see Turkey). Ultimately this misery will come home to us. We reap what we sow. Clearly our energy policy and our foreign policy on back to Kissinger (In Iran, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia) are causal in the rise of radical Islam. We need to end the "war" on terrorism before we destroy everything we have worth defending.
The deaths of 3,000+ Americans on 9/11/2001 is not a justification for an endless state of warfare. This is not a reasonable or effective response to that experience. We have rushed to the wrong conclusions, and engaged in the wrong actions for the wrong reasons. When the orphans left by this generations "war on terror" come of age we will have a high price to pay.
We have become what we fear, a rogue nation, a nation that acts in it's own percieved momentary interest without regard to long term consequences and in violation of international law. A nation that locks up (on Guantanamo) and tortures (phychological we hope) it's own citizens and the citizens of it's allies (Australia) without due process, without charges, without legal counsel, without red cross inspection. Who will save us from ourselves? Now we lock up Arabs, soon we lock up Koreans, Iranians, Pakistanis, Persians, Malaysians, Philipinos, Saudis, Palestinians, etc... Once this begins it is very difficult to stop. We have made so many enemies, how can we tell them apart from our friends?
Note as well that North Korea (axis of evil) and Iran have been put on notice that they are likely to enjoy our military attention. They have each responded to this threat by stepping up their nuclear development efforts. It is understood that the US will not attack a nuclear power. The risk would be too great. From their perspective, the worst mistake they could make would be to terminate their nuclear programs in this environment. The overly aggressive stance of the cowboy president is a self fulfilling prophecy.
Finally, Dr. Dean did not say that he would rule out pre-emptive military action. He indicated that he would undo the policy of engaging in pre-emptive military action as a rule. He implied that he would terminate the current policy of continuous warfare.
Every time we have a problem, we call it a "war". We have a war on poverty, a war on drugs, and a war on terrorism. We have been at war nearly my entire life. This metaphor is too constrictive, too limited, and in retrospect ineffective.
We need a foreign policy that is effective (and reflective of our values in addition to our financial self interest). We need a drug policy that is effective (ours is the most incarcerated population in the world, Stalin would be impressed). We need a healthcare system that is effective and efficient at protecting us from the microbes (plague is here; HIV, Hanta, SARS, etc.). We need an energy policy that is in our interest (not just for the benefit of big oil). We need a plan to end our dependence upon foreign oil before it is all gone. We need a president that is effective at working with our allies to make the world safer for us and more stable in general. Anyone would be an improvement. It will take years to repair our relationships with our allies, and to deal with the repercussions in North Korea, Iraq, and etc.
One can make a case that Colonial Americans invented guerilla warfare. Of all the nations of the earth, we should be the most attuned to guerilla tactics. We abandoned regimental formation, and defied all the rules of gentlemanly warfare during the revolutionary war. During the Civil War we invented the sharpshooter, we deployed rifles long before anyone else. We engaged in Carthaginian tactics against the South in the Civil War. Thanks solely to the good sense of certain Confederate officers, we did not experience guerilla warfare during the Civil War.
One can argue that our liberation from manual labor, and the end of the necessity for servitude and slavery (on which all previous empires were built), are a product of the industrial revolution, of the use of oil and coal rather than human muscle to perform work. The question is weather we can maintain an industrial system as the oil runs out, whether there will be enough to go around at a low enough price for the developing world, or whether we will have to use military means to ensure our supply to the exclusion of their needs.
Our obligation is not to deliver political freedom to the world, or to enforce it by military means. To do so would be to violate other's sovereignty as a rule. Neither party has the stomach for that. Our obligation is to honor our forbears by living life to the best of our ability. We have the privilege of being born free, living free, and dying free; but only if we have the courage, the clarity, and the fortitude to protect and defend our forbears gift ot us, our constitution.
That means opposing a war predicated on lies; and executed in violation of international law. That means impeaching this president for; 1) violating the treaties this country has engaged in, and thereby violating the constitution he has sworn to uphold, and 2) lying to Congress in order to gain war powers a second violation.
The Germans refer to the Nazi era as "terrible times". These will be recognizes as "terrible times" in American history. The constitution has not been so assaulted since the Civil War. There is no guarantee that it will survive the assault.
Our liberty is far from guaranteed, when we don't honor the liberty of our own citizens, we don't honor the sovereignty of other governments, we don't honor our treaties, we don't honor our laws, and we don't honor the constitution.
This is not a war on terror, it is a war on liberty. The battleground is our hearts and minds. "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain."
Posted by: Bosco Hearn at October 27, 2003 08:30 PM"To insinuate that I would get rid of Medicare is wrong, it's not helpful and we need to remember that the enemy here is George Bush, not each other."
This is the full quotation of what Dean said, Michael. You put it in a totally misleading context.
Unfortunately, you don't seem to understand that Bush destroyed unity by choice. With my vote, and the help of thousands of others, this miserable man will be turned out of office.
There are a lot of things you don't understand Michael. The consensus still exists to destroy Osama bin Forgotten and Al Qaida. The war in Iraq was a major blunder, staggeringly expensive, and an all-out mistake. Things are getting worse, much worse. You can't spin your way out of a mess like this.
BTW, I voted for Bush, and supported the war. (I should have known!!) Not everyone who now opposes it is a member of ANSWER. That's another thing you don't seem to understand, in your black-and-white world.
Have you ever even visited the Middle East?
Posted by: Diana at October 28, 2003 08:19 AMIn the heated days of the war in Iraq, the streets of urban America thronged with tens of thousands of activists, some opposed to regime-change and others supporting our troops.
Whose city was this in? I remember one large demo on 2/15; then the anti-war forces were completely whipped and cowed during our military cakewalk.
I would have problems joining any demo organized by ANSWER, by the way, although I'd love to show my disgust with my stupidity. Perhaps I should organize an "I'm Ashamed of My Support for Lying Liars" contingent.
Except for near the end of the Vietnam War, it wasn't always this way.
Again, no. The demonstrations against Vietnam started to get quite big around 1967. By 1969, Moratoriums shut down large parts of NYC.
I remember them, being part of the kiddie contingent.
Get some facts before you write.
Posted by: Diana at October 28, 2003 08:24 AMDespite all the prolix commentary on how totally wrong you are, you wrote a wonderful piece. It makes sense. I'm finding myself more in agreement with you all the time.
Posted by: Jamie at October 28, 2003 09:12 AM"Markus, do you really think the Bush admin is not trying to form a new Iraqi society from the ground up?"
Tallan, I assume they are trying to do the right thing, but that they are failing in large measure and they are going to continue to fail because of the ignorance that planners of the war and occupation had about the Iraqi people prior to the war: ignorance about the greater importance people attach to cultural, linguistic and religious ties as opposed to liberal western values. Almost no Americans over there can even speak Arabic for god sake!
Posted by: Markus Rose at October 28, 2003 09:26 AMI think the Bush Administration, which is contemptuous of the concepts of civil society and democratic norms, is having difficulty even grasping the concept of a government which was not bequeathed to them by grownups in previous generations, and is therefore doomed to fail miserably.
They skipped right past "functioning infrastructure" and into "loot with no-bid contracts," and they're amazed that this whole country-building stuff is hard and requires all this thinkin' and theorizin'.
Posted by: Kimmitt at October 28, 2003 07:40 PMhttp://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1010424/posts
Mr. Totten is Freeped. HTH
Posted by: Virgil K. Saari at October 29, 2003 06:32 AMdude, it was obvious dean wasn't implying that al qaeda wasn't the enemy. don't pretend you can't understand that.
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