June 2, 2010
The Mood in Turkey
I've been trying to think of something to say about this, but I've got nothing.
With anger and sarcasm, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu lashed out Tuesday at Israel's attack on a Gaza aid flotilla and by extension the Obama administration's reluctance to immediately condemn the assault that left at least nine civilians dead.
"Psychologically, this attack is like 9/11 for Turkey," Davutoglu told reporters over breakfast in Washington before going to the State Department to meet with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.
[...]
"We will not be silent about this," he said. "We expect the United States to show solidarity with us. . . . I am not very happy with the statements from the United States yesterday."
Well, much has already, in fact, been said,
For example...
And then there's the classic victim/injustice trope:
I am not very happy with the statements from the United States yesterday.
So which tail, exactly, is wagging the dog? (But you won't hear much about that...)
Contrast the poor (and evidently misinformed) man's profound (yet no doubt honest) disappointment with:
this...
and you'll see that the Obama administration is actually doing pretty well.
Which ought to make the Turkish Foreign Minister a little more cheerful, at least.
Obviously, Turkey's self-image is completely at odds with reality. It views itself as some sort of significant power, which is only true because of its role within NATO, a role that is less and less relevant. Take that away, and it's just another regional bully without much technology or industry. Starting a battle with Israel, one of the most innovative and technologically-advanced nations in the world, would be a big mistake and likely a painful reality check.
Does anyone find this appallingly insulting to the United States with that analogy?
US: 3,000 innocents murdered by Islamist terrorists
Turkey:9 terror-enablers (at the very least) put down after attacking Israeli soldiers with intent to kill.
If he was a real Turkish patriot he wouldn't debase himself and his country this way. He would resign and join the opposition.
Obama/Clinton should tell this guy where to get off (American soil).
I agree. NATO should immediately hold meetings to discuss the possibility of removing Turkey from NATO. These folks are not only insane, they are on the side of current and very possibly future enemies of NATO. They have also committed an act of aggression against a third party that is a close ally of several members of NATO, including teh founding member. And to top it all off they are an Islamist state that has links to jihadi terror groups.
"Diplomacy, diplomacy, more diplomacy" is needed, he said.
Turkish diplomacy? lol. They just got done trying to sell us down the river with Iran. What else do they have planned? Let them go talk to the French.
I agree. NATO is for friends. Turkey under Erdogan is becoming less and less of a friend. Ergo, Turkey out of NATO! btw who needs NATO any more?
"Democratically-elected" carries weight, but is not a blanket justification for what a regime does post-election. See: Gaza, Nazi Germany........
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutogu says it is "time calm replaces anger."
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/turkey-to-normalize-israeli-ties-if-gaza-blockade-ends-1.293757
"This is Turkey's 9/11." Excuse me?! What self-respecting American is going to let Erdogan get away with such an offensively inaccurate analogy?
I sincerely hope that Turkey proves to have overplayed its hand...
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutogu says it is "time calm replaces anger."
Talk is cheap. That's a bad deal for Israel and they won't go for it.
Turkey has effectively ended its role as mediator. This episode has revealed much that was just 80% revealed before.
I don't know if everyone realizes the degree many on the Left hate Liberal Democracy and are in denial of their self-loathing. Radical Islam and socialism are mutually incompatible. Still, the Left is consciously preferring a pact with the Devil indicating their deeper objection to the West.
I hope you don't mind Michael. There is some interesting information here.....
If not eliminate the comment...
And so we see a trend of Western civilization being pushed back.
Very true.
Though the West seems to be aiding in this. Not sure how long this will continue, or if it will just die. Great civilizations have died before. The end of Rome led to 1000 dark years in Europe.
I'm hoping for the best, but the examples of bending over and saying, "I'm sorry, sir. May you give me another?" are getting too numerous to count, and too silly to laugh at were they not really happening.
http://www.amconmag.com/larison/2010/06/01/this-is-winning/
"Self-defeating hyperbole aside, when the foreign minister of one of Israel’s better allies likens one of its actions to 9/11 and the Turkish PM threatens serious consequences in retaliation, this is not evidence that Israel has won anything. It is proof that in four short years Turkey and Israel have gone from being on reasonably good terms to being practically at daggers drawn. That is the result of repeated Israeli strategic failures that have had a cumulative effect over the last several years."
Too many of Israel's "supporters" here seem to think it's more important to stand on principle and ride the moral high horse rather than actually use smart tactics to make Israel safer. Unfortunately that also seems to be the attitude of the present Israeli government. Other than the satisfaction of making Arabs suffer and grovel in the dirt, the blockade of Gaza is objectively stupid. It's fun to get morally outraged about how dithering and naive Europeans are, how unfair it is that Arab countries never get singled out for far worse human rights abuses than Israel, how Israel never gets a break in the media, etc. And those are all accurate points, but at some level you have to say so what, that's also the world we live in. Being stubborn and morally righteous appears to be paving a path for Israel to vanish off the earth. But some of Israel's "supporters" would apparently prefer a morally pure fight to the death than any compromise.
It's 'objectively stupid' to try and prevent Hamas from freely re-arming with whatever Ahmadinejad wants to send them? Are you insane?
Because if Israel doesn't enforce a blockade, NOBODY else will.
Erdogan has got to go.
Ivan:
"It is proof that in four short years Turkey and Israel have gone from being on reasonably good terms to being practically at daggers drawn. That is the result of repeated Israeli strategic failures that have had a cumulative effect over the last several years"
That is rubbish and even the NYT shows the real cause of the changes in Turkey. Look at the groups that brought the Present Turkish government to power. Wasn't there a huge rift with Turkey when we invaded Iraq? Wasn't it first the terrible problem Turkey saw in a free Kurdistan? And didn't Turkey get very angry at the EU when they were rejected for failing the bar?
Yes Ivan, respond to a terrorist group being elected by applauding the means to attack Israel through illegal shipments? Applaud a flow of terrorist fighters? I would say the Israel-blaming attitude and this talk of compromise (really, state this compromise explicitly) is greatly responsible for the somewhat sane to go batty. But you don't see that do you?
"Oddly, it is continued uncritical, automatic U.S. backing that enables the worst instincts in Israel’s government, and it is this that allows it to persist in its self-destructive course long after it should have stopped and corrected its course. It is that very backing that will let Israel continue down this path until it will become impossible for the U.S. to balance its relationships with its other allies and its one-sided relationship with Israel."
Oh, that is what we have seen from Obama, uncritical backing of Israel. Strange how this mirror's exactly the Haaretz Left in Israel which I posted here some weeks ago. The American Conservative teams up with the Israeli Left? Just a great analysis Ivan. Simply enlightening. Israel policy does have flaws but this bit of reasoning is more of the same myopic blather blaming the victim in most cases and not the real forces at work.
Sure, Israel made Turkey go nuts and compare 9/11 to nine dead "activists" trying to run a blockade to supply a terrorist run government in Gaza. Perhaps Ivan, you need to see Valley of the Wolves and ask yourself what really is the cause of this. Perhaps the answer lies in the political mutation in Turkey sadly encouraged by the Left there who thought the present leadership was all about improving the economy and not going backwards into the flaws of radical Islam...
Whenever there is a lack of or perceived lack of leadership there tends to be a rush to fill the vacuum with, frankly anything. The Americans are not going to fill that role, so who is? I guess China, Russia and a whole slew of characters large and small. Israel, at this point anyway, can’t rely on the America government and will have to be more independent, besides, they are going to get a “beating” no matter what they do. It seems to be the season for it.
Wasn’t it Churchill who said, “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.” I guess we will wait and see, and wait, and wait …
You make a very strong point and I often think it is smart to fight "wiser" than it is to fight "stronger."
Two things get at me, though, and I'm interested in your (and others') thoughts.
1. Israel doesn't seem to *ever* catch a break. If there were nukes on board, the Gazans were getting ready to launch them on arrival, and Israel had just cured cancer, I think we'd still see a similar reaction. I sympathize, therefore, with the Israeli view that they are damned if they do, damned if they don't. If the dice are loaded, should you even bother playing the game? (I'm not saying yes or no here, but tossing the question out there). If fighting "wise" gets you the same bad press as being stubborn, is there an incentive for the former?
2. Fighting "wiser" here could potentially mean we have to re-write cultural, military, and political rules and norms. This means we have to behave reactively, constantly gauging how to respond to provocations. The problem here is that it gives the "other side" carte blanche to behave as it sees fit, and we focus virtually *all* our attention on to how the provoked will respond. This strikes me as willfully ignoring the problem, like cutting off a weed and never pulling out the roots. An example here is that there is very little discussion happening over Turkey's role and responsibility (why didn't they inspect the ships, why didn't they work with Israel to prevent a mishap, why did they allow an Islamist group to carelessly throw sparks on a fuel-filled ). Another example is the talk of "disproportionate responses." That concept allows, say, Hezbollah (the "weaker" party) to attack at will, and essentially throw the kitchen sink at its enemy, while the "stronger" party (Israel) is forced to tie its hand behind its back.
This second scenario means that the "other" can keep changing the rules, while "we" have to scurry and focus on moving the goalposts. How long is this sustainable until we've changed all of our norms? At some point, can't we go on the offensive? Should we instead try to change the culture we're living in, so people in the West get mad at the finger-poking as opposed to finding new ways of ducking it?
When pushed too far, the embryonic US Navy kicked Ottoman ass all over the Mediterranean. Do we still have it together enough to do it again? When you see HRC licking the Turkish ambassador's boot, I am afraid we don't.
"The United States supports the Security Counsel's condemnation of the acts leading to this tragedy and we urge Israel to permit full counselor access to the individuals involved and to allow the countries concerned to retrieve their deceased and wounded immediately."
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2010/06/01/hillary_clinton_on_gaza_incident_us_supports_uns_condemnation.html
.
The people on those boats and their supporters want to see Israel destroyed, plain and simple. If they say different, they are liars or fools (any many times both).
Wake up people.
"The United States supports the Security Counsel's condemnation of the acts leading to this tragedy..."
she means the acts of the blockade-breakers and not the Israeli Navy.
I keep shaking my head at how bad the Obama/Clinton team is fucking up.
I'm deluding myself trying to imagine otherwise.
Also, I can't help but think that this memorable post-9/11 piece is among the least prescient in retrospect, lumping Israel and Turkey together as "ones on which the U.S. can count, virtually unconditionally, to show an immutable opposition to Islamic terrorism ... stable, unwavering comradeship in arms and ideas that President Bush (and, let's face it, his successors) will need, at least for another generation." How quickly things change, with Turks now making overtures toward Iran and Hamas.
Well, at least we haven't really lost much of value: when we stop deluding ourselves we realize that the Turks have NEVER but NEVER been our friends, only the people who would fight with us against the Soviets if the latter tried to invade. Neither the Islamists nor the vaunted "secularists" have any real love for Democracy, and they could never be trusted.
The only thing I truly worry is what would happen if the Islamists come to power in Turkey entirely and what the fate of our Black Sea Allies will be if we cannot access the Dardanelles.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0610/38010.html
Media will continue to try and deflect the political damage to Democrats with BS reporting described here: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jun/1/freedom-flotilla-flotsam/
The terrible siege revealed: http://www.paltoday.ps/arabic/News-64161.html
As long as media (that has many Jewish employees) fails to contest the Big Lie, many Liberal Jews (under forty) will continue to live in denial: http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/hamas_e105.htm
I wonder if Schumer or Wiener will add Turkey to those States that support terrorism.
Observation: the conditions for false flag operations are growing. Turkish soldiers died recently in attacks by the PPK. When the network is deep, little morality exists and the world is at the edge, false flags are particularly destabilizing. Expect other events elsewhere to keep the attention moving. If the media questions the claims by the activists, NK will likely do something. This is organized to a greater extent than many wish to believe.
As I said, smart is required.
Okay Victor, now I know....
A very interesting article and something known for sometime. But it doesn't explain why the Israelis don't fix it. Maybe they will now, but who knows.
However, the ironic aspect here is that all this free techno-stuff may have in fact backfired on these people since it clearly shows them as being very far from peace-loving activists and in fact shows them to be fools and tools of the terrorists and their Turkish enablers.
and now the icing on the cake...
Hamas is not allowing the "humanitarian aid" to enter Gaza. Anan, perhaps you could talk to them!
The Israelis should jump all over this!
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/anti_israel_sharks_sniff_weakness_n5AbqK6bk6NHcy6qEWK5jJ#ixzz0phPKSy8o
Turkey is probably lost to the islamist world. The only chance is a civil war. But sane secular turks are probably not prepared to die...
The whole wide world is ascending while the muslim world is descending. It's a long time ago the two worlds met in the staircase.
Leave the muslim world to itself. Close the borders. Let them kill eachother.
If some major attack would come from the muslim world towards the west I hope the US, Russia, India and China has prepared the obvious top secret plan...
Occupy the oil rich parts of Saudi-Arabia...You all know why. Only the democratic states in the world would be allowed to buy.
P.S Do not ask the europeans to get involved in this plan (maybe the british). They would not be able to keep such an "immoral" plan a secret D.S
In Europe no media describes this islamisation getting closer to the doors of israelis.
Getting interesting.
Its a multi-polar world now. Fallout lands everywhere especially the ME, India, Russia, Central Asia and Eastern Europe not withstanding missile defense. Those people probably don't like THAT suggestion. China grows through globalization and this idea would spell real trouble. Germany and Russia are far too close to Armageddon to simply let the insanity explode. How exactly far away from ideological mutation do you think the Germans and Russians are given such conflict?
So you think volcano dust tracking seemed weird? Naw, its too big a beast to simply contain although a great internal war must precede any radical united well armed alliance. I wouldn't put that however, much more than a decade or so away. And if you think Jews will go quietly into the night left in the cauldron, you are surely mistaken. I think more than a few Lebanese, Egyptians, Jordanians and Saudis, not to mention the Gulf States feel a bit similar. Yes, reformation is not having one its better moments, but does the alternative look better?
This level of potential conflagration some hope to contain has very possible ramifications for many in the Western World. Soon enough, the madness and WMD will intertwine and you know the story. The pathological network will be global no matter our little walls. Significant destruction and chaos can occur when you consider just the consequence of a single horrible act of mass casualties and the predictable retribution. These are not the Soviets we are talking about, nor are they a majority of the populations they hope to control.
In such a world left to itself, one might as well forget tourism in Sweden. The West will struggle economically in anxiety while Asia far too advanced to enjoy depression will not follow the leaders. Africa will not go quitely into the night either. In a different way than Orwell suspected, the map could look similar to those in 1984.....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1984_fictious_world_map_v2_arr.png
Re-alignment unfavorable to the US in a historic way will accelerate in a vacuum. If the US leadership is holding up the house of Liberal Democracy, its decline accelerates the descent of both Freedom and Stability.
.
What a load of crap! The Israelis have done nothing but shower the Turks with technological and economic cooperation and this is what they've gotten. It is typical, pussy-whipped western liberal thinking that: "Oh, it must be something we've done. What can we do to make them like us again?"
This just makes me want to puke right over my shoes. I've got news for you. There's absolutely nothing the Israelis could have done to effect Turkey's drift towards the Islamist block. It would have happened one way or another. Turkey is finding its Muslim legs, and Ataturk is spinning in his grave. Israel suddenly became inconvenient, that's all.
I'm certainly not a Middle East expert, but it seems to me that Israel is in fact strengthening Hamas, and Iran's position in the Levant, every day. It also seems to me that there is a faction in Israel who want to strengthen Hamas because they want an armed conflict. Understandable. Israelis live under incredible tension all the time, I get why there would be people who want to just end this constant tension in one apocalyptic battle with Iran/Hamas/Syria that will either be total victory or total defeat. But logically I don't think that's the best solution. This is a long term game that requires infiltration, manipulation and patience. If Israel overreacts to every short term setback it will end up with nothing - the country is simply outgunned, and outmanned.
Believe me, the Israelis understand much better than you do that there is no short term solution to this situation, but only one of managed conflict. They are also very far from being outgunned and outmanned, which is why Hamas prefers to wage its war in the forum of international public opinion, as illustrated by this buffoonish "aid" convoy turned bloodbath.
Israel strengthens Iran's position simply by existing.
Of course operations like the flotilla intercept are risky but the long term strategy you would rely on has too many irreversible consequences should you be likely wrong. What is the time scale? What Hamas really needs now is a great victory and ending the blockade peacefully would be such a victory characterized by "Israelis afraid to fight Hamas", "world recognizes Hamas as freedom fighters". They are instead being dragged to the table to pretend to accept peace. Turkey just tried this "political" move with their bogus nuclear mediation.
I do not see how Israel is propping Hamas up. They cling to the ceasefire. If Israel really is outgunned and out-manned then should Israel let this trend you see continue and add to the fiction that terrorism is really irresistible resistance and there is nothing that Israel can do to prevent its slow extinction? They should just infiltrate, manipulate and show patience to what? I didn't know that Israel had 100% clean nuclear weapons in the event you are wrong.
And where did it say Israel seeks one huge battle against everyone and is driving that scenario? It seeks to end the Palestinian conflict. It used to be friendly towards Iran and Turkey. It does not embargo the West Bank. Your claim is nonsense. And it is interesting you depict Israel as standing alone. It is not presently, but with you its a forgone conclusion spurred on by its own faults. What does that reveal? Fortunately I don't think Congress agrees with you, nor a few other allies, not the least surprising are a few Sunni countries.
Again, over reaction meaning what?
Disagree. Israel does not have economic base for a prolong war, which is most likely to be waged either with Turkey or Iran.
"Israel strengthens Iran's position simply by existing."
Agree, but I hope tables will turn in few years and strengthened Iran will become Israel's friend.
Kinda makes you want to puke....
""No human being in the 21st century should have to be subjected to medieval tactics, like in the old days of surrounding the castle and starving the people out," said Imam Mahdi Bray, executive director of the Muslim American Society."
And by puking I was just referring to the lack of any counter claims by CNN which they often do. I am not sure these spokespersons understand Obama ran for office with Hamas-enabling associates he denied having anything to do with on his back including those posting on the Trinity Newsletter. Blago trial will bring back some of the past. Obama's recognition of Hamas anytime soon as resistance fighters will spell trouble at least on a political level where the GOP are licking their chops.......
Leo, that is standing ALONE and Iran's economy is crap. Israel does have some significant gas off its shore as well as a very healthy high tech economy.
There are also growing strategic affiliations one should not ignore and I would even include India.
Just imagine Iran somehow displacing Israel. Saudis and Egyptians would be thrilled. It isn't so black and white although the Press paint it that was.
later...
Arab countries? What about Russia? I could come up with a dozen incidents involving Russians that were far worse than this just from the last year or two. But, I'd have to dig to find them because they passed almost without mention in the international media.
http://www.seraphicpress.com/archives/2010/06/war_crime_again.php
I disagree. I think it's the Western Left that is responsible for that. And I think they must really be enjoying the way you blame Israel for what leftists in Europe do to empower Islamists in the middle-east.
Philip Alston said that the US in particular was doing damage to rules designed to protect the right of life.
Nope! The UN is doing that, by selectively allowing international laws and treaties to be broken by most countries without comment, while falsely accusing a few countries of non-existent violations of the same international laws. The UN is not immune to suffering the consequences of hypocritical double standards.
"Every week the IDF Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (CoGAT) organizes the transfer of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip. During the past week, as a part of CoGAT’s weekly coordination, a total of 619 truckloads consisting of 13,593 tons of humanitarian aid were transferred into the Gaza Strip from Israel through the various crossings."
"Among the various products included in the transfers this week were 1,461,000 liters of diesel fuel for the power station, 293,796 liters of diesel fuel for transport, 44,704 liters of regular gasoline, and 919 tons of cooking gas. In addition, 76 truckloads of fruits and vegetables, 27 truckloads of wheat, 34 truckloads of meat, chicken and fish products, 45 truckloads of dairy products, 114 truckloads of animal feed, 37 truckloads of hygiene products, 50 truckloads of clothing and shoes and 16 truckloads of sugar were transferred."
Already acknowledged the approx 15 thousand tons of Gazan imports that Israel/Egypt permit. The problem is that every Gazan importer has to go through a maze of bureaucratic paperwork to import or export goods and services; with long, variable and uncertain approvals. Often trading requests are blocked.
All of this disrupts the Gazan private sector and civil society. Arguably, Fayyed, Mustafa Barghouti and other non Hamas political currents have considerable support among the Gazan business community and civil society.
Why would anyone want to force Gazans to remain dependent on international handouts? Don't Gazans have the right to start their own businesses and try to be successful?
Posted by: Carlos at June 2, 2010 11:05 am"
I agree and clearly Turkey is not a trustworthy Israeli ally. Even the US can't really trust them when the chips are down (see Iraq, Iran etc).
Although to be fair, it's impossible to know to what extent the AK leadership (Erdogan etc) sympathizes with that feeling Carlos mentions, and to what extent they simply cater to it with words, as any politician might do to increase their power.
Yes, that's true, but you can say that about anybody, including Ahmadinejad and kim jong il. Heck, that's what they said about Hitler. Israel isn't going to chance it.
All of this disrupts the Gazan private sector and civil society. Arguably, Fayyed, Mustafa Barghouti and other non Hamas political currents have considerable support among the Gazan business community and civil society.
Anand, this is HUMANITARIAN AID, not import/export blah blah blah. There's a war and a siege going on. There's be something very wrong of Gaza was a pro-business environment while it's under siege, wouldn't you agree?
Why would anyone want to force Gazans to remain dependent on international handouts?
Those handouts are not going to stop, no matter how successful Palestinians are on there own. That's the largest of all UN bureaucracies and the most prestigious of NGO postings. The Palestinians could have a higher standard of living than Switzerland and they'd still have UN and NGO do-gooders swarming all over them.
And is this not sufficient provocation to rupture US-Turkish relations?
Though not a great fan of Bush, it is hard to see Turkey doing something like this with him in office. Crunch time Obama and Democrats ought to be counting their options.
This is not going to end well again.....
And before you answer that question Craig, consider the domestic front for Obama. Oil Spill, slugo economy. lots of anger and the different numbers coming in on the health care reform....
I guess the iranians have figured out the box Obama's in while we contemplate the bubble...
The Turks seems more committed to the war against the Takfiris over the long term than the large majority of countries, America included. Turkey, the world's 5th largest Shiite country [After Iran, India, Pakistan and Iraq], has a good record in resisting global discrimination against Shiites and Sufis. Turkey believes that co-opting and cooperating with Iran in the fight against the Takfiris will advance the global war on terror. [A tactical disagreement on achieving a shared strategic objective.]
Turkey also believes that Israel doing right by the Palestinians will help defeat the Takfiri.
Turkey is also a global leader in organizing the provision of global commons:
-global free trade and free investment
-protecting global sea lanes,
-providing global security services
-fighting global organized crime and drug lords
-stabilizing the global financial system
-fighting Takfiri around the world including in Yemen, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Pakistan
Turkey has one of the world's fastest growing economies and most prudent fiscal positions. See page 177:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/pdf/text.pdf
Off topic:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAf5Eq3dCEc
Ali Abunimah [7:07 on] asserts that none of the journalists [including 6 Al Jazeera journalists] were allowed to leave the ships with any of their films or cameras.
If this is proved to be true, I hope Israel quickly releases all the media footage from inside the boats. [The footage from the two Reuters cameramen who were killed on 7.2007 in New Baghdad were very instructive in showing the weapons and RPGs that the militia members were carrying.]
Craig, this is some of the most entertaining TV I have seen in a while:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkJCFwav6fw
A Palestinian reality TV show young woman host talks to a bunch of Israelis near the Gaza border. Some of these Israelis behave emotionally. Things start hitting the fan 26 minutes in. Some of the Israelis say anti Arab and anti leftist rants.
God knows the leftists deserve censor. But the anti-Arab rants are a little disturbing. Scary to watch. Some crowd members harass journalists and camera people while the police lazy around.
Craig, what do you predict if Ankara sends a few warships and air force escorts on this next two ship flotilla scheduled to reach Gaza by the end of the weekend?
I predict Israel will sink them. Israel has its back up against the wall, and cannot afford to be seen as weak or easily pushed around. It would be the death of them.
And is this not sufficient provocation to rupture US-Turkish relations?
I don't understand why the US has not already sent the Turkish ambassador home. I don't know what game Obama thinks he is playing but the stakes are high and whatever he's up to, he doesn't seem to be doing it very well.
Most of these setbacks are Obama's fault for not having been more decisive in the past, in my opinion. When things blow up, it's now going to be a game changer for the region and possibly for the whole world. And things didn't have to get to this point. All Obama had to do was make the US position perfectly clear. Instead he's allowed a dangerous power vacuum to develop in the ME. And in Europe as well.
I agree with you it isn't going to end well. But maybe that unhappy ending is what is required for the more responsible governments of the world to come to their senses.
Try to break in a wold horse by committee. You just get your ass kicked. With the Left screaming over the Gulf oil, Blago reminding all of the past, the economy stumbling and the debt rising, Obama , or should I say the US is facing a perfect storm.
I wonder if Obama sent those troops south because he knows Hizb'Allah and Hamas have penetrated our border. How badly this will end is anyone's guess but as you watch TV tonight, isn't it amazing we go on in our bubble, clueless to the extent of our coming trouble....
That's one of the most ridiculous things I've ever seen you say, anand. And that's really saying something!
Isn't nice to see how Obama has fulfilled his campaign pledge to restore America's prestige in the world, though? Even our friends are laughing at us these days :o
he wouldn't do that, Maxtrue. He probably send federal troops to the border so that he can impose the federal government's will on the state governments. And I'm sure you know how I feel about that :)
Well, anyway, if we're lucky this is all going to erupt before the next Presidential election so we can get a major re-alignment.
Is this really necessary?
I implore the owner of this blog to flip that switch
to make the source of this bullshit STFU already.
Oh, yeah, I forgot, Democrats would blame Israel....
Actually no, I don't think Americans have gotten to that point yet.....
Don't know if anyone saw this already....
http://kinnyscomments.blogspot.com/2010/06/mood-in-turkey.html
Obama had better play all his cards to keep the Turkish ruling clique from sending warships to break the blockade. It would result in something very much like World War III.
Turkey needs to bear in mind that, while they would be fighting to avenge an insult, the Israelis would be fighting for their lives, no holds barred.
Because the US adminstration and the Turks are on the same page here, i.e., on the issue of I-P.
Which is, that Israel must be pressured to do "what is best for her"...and best for all of us: viz. to agree to a Palestinian state enable a Palestinian state exist.
You see, Israel does not know what is in her own best interests and must be helped, cajoled, kicked by her partners and allies until she does it.
Oh, and by her neighbors.
And so, Syria pressures Israel, Hezbullah pressures Israel, Hamas pressures Israel, the Palestinian Authority pressures Israel, Iran pressures Israel, Lebanon pressures Israel, Saudi Arabia pressures Israel, Egypt pressures Israel, Jordan pressures Israel....
....but for some insane, unfathomable reason (right, Anan?), Israel refuses to see the light.
And so Turkey now pressures Israel, with US approval; and guess what? the US is now (or will soon be) pressuring Israel...
...to do what is in Israel's best interests, but which Israel just can't do, just can't realize, just can't understand. Israel just can't help herself. Perverse nation.
What is essential, though, is to ignore (or deny) that Hamas wants to destroy Israel, that Iran wants to destroy Israel, that Hezbullah wants to destroy Israel, that the PA does NOT want a Palestinian state as long as Israel is still around to defend itself, and that Turkey seems to want to join the party in a big way.
Yes, these are insignificant details in the larger picture and must be ignored (or denied). Otherwise, progress might prove elusive; and Israel will just have to be "persuaded" a bit harder.
The Obama administration has decided that the only way peace (the most important goal, dream, achievement in the region and the world) is possible is by creating a Palestinian state.
Or should that be, "viable" Palestinian state?
Or should that be, "viable, contiguous" Palestinian state?
(Just ask Hillary.)
That's right, creating a Palestinian state that not even the Palestinians want. (Unless it's merely a clever strategem by Obama for implementing the Wright stuff.)
Well, you were askingn about the Turkish ambassador....
1) a ship in international waters is the sovereign territory of the country whose flag it flies. Nobody has the right to stop or board it without permission of the ship. (FYI, the US Coast Guard routinely stops and inspects ships coming into the US. But either it does so only once the ship has entered US waters, or it first gets the explicit permission of the ship.)
2) an attack on a ship in international waters falls into one of two categories:
- if it is an attack by individuals, without the sanction of a government, it is piracy.
- if it is an attack by the military or other government body, it is an act of war. Period.
Nobody can claim that this was the action of unsanctioned individuals. (Unless someone wants to argue that this was a screw-up far down the command chain. And not authorized or approved by the government of Israel.)
3) Turkey, in the person of a ship flying its flag, has thus been subject to what appears to be an act of war by Israel. Which makes it entirely reasonable and proper that it at least discuss the matter within NATO. After, NATO is an organization based on the standard that an attack against one is an attack against all.
4) I don't know if Turkey will ask to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty over this. They have cause, under the treaty, but I don't know if they will. (My suspicion is not, but....) On the other hand, if they send Turkish naval vessels to escort the next Turkish ship in that area (which is at least being considered), and those naval vessels get attacked, they certainly will.
5) at that point, the US will have two, and only two, choices:
- back Turkey against Israel. In essence saying to Israel: there are limits, even to our willingness to back you -- and this is over the line. And that includes not only words, but actions.
- not back Turkey, and write off NATO entirely. Because, when the US was attacked on 9/11, Article 5 got invoked on our behalf. And if the US won't reciprocate, NATO is finished. And all of the other mutual defense treaties we are party to are, at the very least, called into question.
I don't know which way the US will jump on that last question, if it comes to that. But if I were the government of Israel, I sure wouldn't want to bet the ranch on #2.
P.S. While many of the commenters don't seem to be aware of it, the government of Turkey is hardly a rabid Islamist group. Yes, their roots are as an Islamic party; just like all of those parties in Europe called Christian Democrats have some roots in Christianity -- which doesn't make them rabid crusaders for their faith either.
That nominally Islamist government has done more, during its term in office, to bring Turkish law into conformance with EU requirements than all of its more secular predecessors -- which hardly shows a dedication to a radical Islamist vision.
Also it has continued the support for the US thru NATO which Turkey has given for decades. Granted, they also have areas where they disagree with the US on policy. Just as various other European countries in NATO have done. (Anybody remember some of France's disagreements?)
You need to look up information on naval blockades during wartime. The ships were blockade runners which refused to divert when warned.
If the flotilla was an agent of the Turkish government, it was an act of war by Turkey against Israel.
But forgive my ignorance: who exactly is Israel at war with? I mean, Gaza is not a country or a part of a country, right? So it cannot be a war with them. Unless you want to argue that Gaza is part of Israel and there is a civil war going on. So who exactly has Israel declared war on? (They have declared it, haven't they? Because otherwise the legal justification for "wartime" would seem to a bit shaky.)
I suppose there is the alternative of seeing Israel as dealing with a criminal situation. That removes the justification you cite regarding "wartime," but perhaps there is a (different) legal justification for blockades in that situation. Any idea what the law is there?
It would begin by Turkish and Israeli warships firing on each other, and end by the two nations bombing each other's population centers. Hamas would certainly join in. Likewise Hezbollah (which means Syria). Iran would be hard-pressed to stay out. We are talking about a long step towards Armageddon. In this context, parsing arcane definitions of 'piracy' and 'international waters' blah blah blah would be worse than useless.
Face it. Israel's blockade is going to continue.
There are other ships approaching Gaza right now.
Israel needs to find ways to minimize the chances for violence, but still turn the boats back. Turkey needs to be pressured, not just by America, but by the entire West, not to escalate the conflict.
Davutoglu and his ilk have no shame, and no moral standing as the occupiers of Cyprus, oppressors of Kurds, and deniers of atrocities against the Armenians. The Footstool Empire will not be restored, despite his fervent wishes.
The legal issues have been discussed at length on other threads.
If Israel and Hamas are in a state of war [a state can be at war with a nonstate actor], then Israel has the "legal" [versus moral] right to blockade Gaza. This gives the IDF the "legal" right to inspect every ship headed to Gaza. Since the flotilla's destination was Gaza according to their ship registries, the IDF had the legal right to either inspect them in international waters, or redirect them to a nonGazan port.
wj, perhaps you could continue this discussion on the most recent thread, where I am trying to defend Turkey.
I think Turkey is right to insist that the sanctions against Gaza be eased to facilitate international trade and business development. This would have the effect of empowering the Gazan private sector and civil society as well as political currents other than Hamas [Mustafa Barghouti and Fatah among others.]
least some of whom were apprehended with weapons in their hands.
Israel needs to prevent armaments from being shipped to Gaza; that is the bottom line. Food, medecine, etc., even cement, all can be facilitated.
Besides, if 'world opinion' is really that concerned, let them exert equal pressure on Egypt to open it's portion of the Gaza border.
Everyone knows that won't happen. The onus is 100% percent against Israel, which quite logically makes them feel that their backs are against the wall & they have nothing left to lose.
Israel could quite possibly defeat even a combined attack by Turkey, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah--but they'd have to go no-holds-barred to do it. Even assuming no use of nuclear weapons, even assuming Iran staying out of it, it's likely that hundreds of thousands would perish. With nothing left to lose, the Likud government would be tempted to expel all the Palestinians.
I repeat: the US (plus friendly powers like Japan, France and Germany) should 'call in every marker' they have with Turkey to ensure that no future 'aid flotilla' gets a Turksih military escort, no matter what.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Air_Force#Aircraft_Inventory
I would be stunned if Turkey sent a military escort. For that matter, I would be surprised if the Turks even let a Turkish flagged vessel travel to Gaza's seaport.
I feel like I have wandered into a parallel universe here.
I take it that means you've been hanging out in the alternate universe a little too long :)
Skipping all your comments about blockades as that's already been discussed at length here and elsewhere, and even the western press (like the BBC) is now acknowledging Israel was on the right side of the law.
- not back Turkey
This one. In fact Turkey should be ejected from NATO as soon as possible.
I don't know which way the US will jump on that last question...
I do. Why don't you?
P.S. While many of the commenters don't seem to be aware of it, the government of Turkey is hardly a rabid Islamist group.
Actually, they are. If that's not what the people of Turkey want I suggest they get themselves a different government.
Also it has continued the support for the US thru NATO which Turkey has given for decades.
The Islamists haven't been in power for decades. They've only been in power a few years. They don't get credit for what the previous government did. In fact, they seem hell-bent on undoing everything the previous government did.
And I'll say this one more time: Turkey should not be in NATO.
Anand, what are your credentials for making such assessments? Your rah-rah-rah for turkey is annoying even me. And as far as I can tell it's just meaningless babbling, entirely divorced from reality.
Remember, Turkish land forces would have very long supply lines (through Syria, at that). The US would (hopefully) cut off all their supllies of spare parts.
Yes, their airforce would be hard to defeat. But I repeat: Turkey would be fighting to avenge an insult. Israel would be fighting for its life.
I don't expect much from countries like the UK.
Not from Spain, Italy, Greece or Ireland either.
Sweden and Norway are already part of the Islamo-fascist axis, near as I can tell.
But clear-headed states like France, Germany, and Japan need to exert the utmost pressure on Turkey not to do anything foolish. Turkey would have to be insane to escalate this. But what if they ARE insane?
The EU should insist on allowing the Kurds to hold a referendum on peaceful secession from Turkey.
When the next ME war comes, will Turkey fight against Israel? Possibly.
It's very scary.
Israel failed, failed at bringing peace after 1967 -- it will only get harder the longer it takes.
I think they are. But it's possible the problem can be fixed if the CIA can manage to swap out Ergogan's Viagra prescription with Valium.




